While there may be political undertones determining the fate of Taekwondo as an Olympic sport, it could also be true that these people are self important blowhards and their opinion of anything doesn't matter to anyone else but each other and they have absolutely no bearing on the outcome. They hate each other. always have, always will. check. On the other hand, like all other sports that have faced the Olympic hatchet, the decision could be based on nothing more than what some others here have stated. The sport does not translate well on TV, nor does it portray the image that the Olympics Committee is looking for. I've heard all these reasons and really couldn't tell you which one is true. On a more ominous note, some would not only imply that the very foundations of the Kukkiwon are at stake but nothing short of the security of the free world as we know it could crumble. *shudder*. Sorry, I'm not buying it, but everyone is entitled to their own opinion.
I don't know if it would shake the foundations of the kukkiwon, but losing Olympic status certainly is not a good thing for Taekwondo.
On how the decision will be made, GM Bill Sullivan explained it much better than I can:
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In its effort to modernize the games, in 2002 the IOC voted to limit the
Summer Olympic Programme to 28 sports, 301 events, and 10,500 athletes.
The IOC assigned the Olympic Programme Commission (OPC) the task of
developing a tool to evaluate each official medal sport and the sports
short-listed for official medal status on a quadrennial basis. In 2004,
the IOC approved the OPC proposal to evaluate each sport in the
following seven categories: history and tradition, universality,
popularity, image and environment, athlete welfare, development, and
cost. Within the seven categories, there are approximately numerical 100
variables organized in 33 subdivisions (the OPC calls these subdivisions
"criteria"). The two categories with the largest number of numerical
variables are universality (40 variables) and popularity (27 variables).
That is, these two categories comprise almost 2/3 of the numerical data
points. The other five categories include approximately 27 numerical
variables.
The first OPC report included data from the 2000 Summer Olympic Games
through the 2004 games. In addition to the numerical data points, the
2005 OPC report included an evaluative critique of each sport. For
example, the report criticized the questionable judging in taekwondo
competition and the low level of popularity of taekwondo. The 2009
report included data from the 2004 games through the 2008 games. The
2009 report did not include an evaluative critique of the sports, but
did include factual statements for each sport (e.g., it described the
taekwondo international referee training program). While the 2005 report
included baseball and softball, the 2009 report did not, even though
they were official medal sports in 2008.
In an exhaustive search of the literature, I found no comparative
evaluation of the numerical data among the sports. Unless the IOC has a
classified internal document, mine will be the first to compare the data
among the sports. My graduate research assistant and I have analyzed the
change in scores for all the sports from the 2005 to the 209 OPC report.
In total, we have approximately 7300 data points.
I have sent two abstracts of results on all 28/26 sports to the
organizers of the pre-Olympic sports conference in Glasgow, Scotland in
July with the expectation that I will present my data there. So I won't
share the results with you at this time. I will say that taekwondo was
not in bad shape in the 2009 report. But the next OPC report is due out
in 2013.
If I were a leader of an international federation affiliated with the
IOC, in addition to being a good politician within the IOC, I would do
all that I could to improve my sport's scores in the variables used in
the OPC report. Weeks after the 2005 report was accepted, baseball and
softball lost their official medal status. (Baseball and softball are
now in discussions about a merger with the hopes that their gender
universality scores will increase.) Weeks after the 2009 report, golf
and rugby were approved for official medal status as of 2016. Readers of
this blog know that both karate and wushu are short-listed sports for
the Summer Olympic Programme. Nothing is permanent.
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The things you raise (port does not translate well on TV, nor does it portray the image that the Olympics Committee is looking for) maybe one or two of the approximately 100 variables the IOC is looking at. But the final decision comes in the form of a vote of IOC members.