Phil Elmore said:
No, there's nothing fallacious about it. If you don't consider such high percentages of the populations cited to be a cause for concern, that's great. I happen to think that having one third of our prison population comprised of illegal aliens to be cause for alarm.
If you didn't send the book title, then thank you to whomever did; as I said, it wasn't signed, so I don't know who did send it.
As far as the logic you cite, I too find it to be fallacious. Citing the prison population as your 'cause for concern' leaves out all of the people who manage to avoid prison - an outcome enhanced by money and position, neither of which are particularly associated with being an illegal immigrant. As I said above, if you could show that 30% of people
accused of such crimes were illegal immigrants, then that might be more indicative of illegal immigrants being the problem. However, the prison populations have historically been skewed towards poor, minority, undereducated, and other low social classes. For example:
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In 1994, one in three black men between the ages of 20-29 were in prison, jail, on probation or on parole. In 1995, 47% of state and federal inmates were black, the largest group behind bars. Black men were 7 times more likely than white men to be in prison. In 1993, Asians, Pacific Islanders, American Indians, and Alaskan natives made up 2% of prison population. Native Americans are 10 times more likely than whites to be imprisoned. Latinos are the fastest growing group behind bars. Between 1985 and 1995 Latinos jumped from 10% of all state and federal inmates to 18%. In 1993, whites made up 74% of the general population, but only 36% of federal and state prison inmates. In 1970, there were 5,600 women in federal and state prisons. By 1996 there were 75,000. 60% of that population are black and Latina. In 1993, the overall incarceration rate for juveniles was 221 per 1000,000; for Latino youth it was 481 per 100,000; and for black youth it was 810 per 100,000.
Source: http://www.prisons.org/racism.htm
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Another primary source for the prison population comes from unsocialized young males, as described athttp://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.23313/pub_detail.asp
The underclass has been growing. The crime rate has been dropping for thirteen years. But the proportion of young men who grow up unsocialized and who, given the opportunity, commit crimes, has not.
A rough operational measure of criminality is the percentage of the population under correctional supervision. This is less sensitive to changes in correctional fashion than imprisonment rates, since people convicted of a crime get some sort of correctional supervision regardless of the political climate. When Ronald Reagan took office, 0.9 percent of the population was under correctional supervision. That figure has continued to rise. When crime began to fall in 1992, it stood at 1.9 percent. In 2003 it was 2.4 percent. Crime has dropped, but criminality has continued to rise.
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Why has the proportion of unsocialized young males risen so relentlessly? In large part, I would argue, because the proportion of young males who have grown up without fathers has also risen relentlessly. The indicator here is the illegitimacy ratio--the percentage of live births that occur to single women. It was a minuscule 4 percent in the early 1950s, and it has risen substantially in every subsequent decade. The ratio reached the 25 percent milestone in 1988 and the 33 percent milestone in 1999. As of 2003, the figure was 35 percent--of all births, including whites. The black illegitimacy ratio in 2003 was 68 percent. By way of comparison, the illegitimacy ratio that caused Daniel Patrick Moynihan to proclaim the breakdown of the black family in the early 1960s was 24 percent.
Does this mean that we should close our borders to members of all of these groups as well? Following the logic you cite, all minorities, poor people, illegitimate males, and all other groups over-represented in the prison population should be prevented from entering the country, because they statistically more likely to commit crimes, without regard to any of the other factors which might affect the statistical makeup of the prison population. I find this logic narrow, short-sighted, and demonstrative of an attempt to validate a decision made based on opinion rather than fact. Certainly, you are welcome to any opinion you choose to hold; likewise, I am welcome to mine, whether it disagrees with yours or not.