On Iran

[ballen0351]

If Israel attacks Iran without us, it will be FAR less disruptive then if we went to war and exacerbated all of our financial problems, pissed off Russia and China, and torched the Bill of Rights. The biggest problem that an Israeli strike on Iran will be the subsequent disruption in the global economy. The oil that comes out of the region is vital and this disruption could very well trigger a Depression.

Therefore, our political leaders need to condemn this possible strike. They need to threaten to disavow ties to their government if they do. They need to demand diplomacy, better intelligence, and good faith.

That's how we avert this thing.

So its ok to make threats against our allies but not our enemy? Iran is the ones sending weapons used to kill US soliders not Israel. Iran is the one making threats to wipe other nations of the face of the earth.
I dont understand why you want to threaten one side and not the other esp when the side you seem to want to threaten is our friend If you want to threaten both then I guess I could see that. Israel you attack your on your own and Iran you attack were coming for you.

If Iran attacked Israel 1st would you support the US then helping Israel? Or are you totally against all involvment no matter what?

 

[oftheherd1]

Thanks for the clarification Bill. While I don't like lies about acts of war, only to support engagement with a real or supposed enemy, I might understand the political reasoning sometimes. I just don't like our military to have to lie about such things. We will likely prosecute them for telling lies and covering up war crimes. Therefore we should not tell them lies are OK if the government says so. I don't have any resources to any information not in the public domain already, but I tend to doubt there was any intentional killing of US military just to justify a war. Politicians do a lot of stupid things, as I guess we all do, but that would be so illegal it would be hard to cover up.

And I certainly get it about not wanting Iran to have nuclear weapons, and about being friends of Israel. I support that myself. Iran may not be close to having a nuclear capability, and only be trying to make everyone believe they are close. Saddam made that mistake. He was too good a salesman. He and his country paid dearly for that act of salesmanship..But if Iran did develop nuclear weapons, I don't doubt for a minute they would use them against Israel. Fatwahs aside, both the leader and shadow leadership have made it clear they want to destroy Israel and return that land to someone non-Israeli.

 

[Bill Mattocks]

Some new information:

http://www.military.com/news/article/israel-denies-false-flag-op-against-us.html?ESRC=topstories.RSS

The Israeli government is denying a report that its intelligence agents posed as CIA officers in an alleged plan to recruit and train Sunni extremists in Pakistan to assassinate Iranian officials.

The Jan. 13 report in Foreign Policy magazine quoted U.S. intelligence officials as saying Israel’s intelligence agency, the Mossad, conducted the operation in 2007 and 2008.

...

Israel’s response to the so-called “false-flag” accusation appeared as a former CIA officer suggested Israel carried out a Jan. 11 assassination of an Iranian nuclear scientist in order to goad Iran into a military action – perhaps an attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz – which the U.S. has said it will not allow.

“It’s almost as if [Israel’s] intention is to get the Iranians to fire a missile at an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, which will cause a wider war,” Robert Baer, who now writes on intelligence issues for Time magazine, told the MSNBC show “Hardball” on Jan. 12. “It would help them (Israel) because the Israelis would force us into hitting the Iranians.”

I was not aware of this before I started this thread, but it kind of ties in with what I was saying. I didn't suspect Israel would pretend to be CIA in order to goad the Iranians into retaliating on the US in the Straits of Hormuz, but it makes perfect sense. Israel would very much like the US to be in the thick of this. And I suspect we will be, one way or another.

 

[Tez3]

Actually it could just have easily been one of a number of countries that blew up the scientiest in Iran, including the Iranians if he was a dissident.
One thing to remember is that Israel is a democratic country so saying that 'Israel' wants this and wants that isn't eaxactly true, there are as many political views, the same as there are in America and the UK. A good many of you don't agree with your President so it wouldn't be true to say all America wants something because he does ie the Obama healthcare stuff. A good many will not want war with Iran, a good many won't want attacks on Iran and their view may well prevail. The Israelis are just as capable of forcing their government out and electing a new one.
It might be better to stop reading what certain non Israeli people want Israel to do and taking that as gospel truth. it might be better to actually ask the Israelis instead of taking it at second hand what they will or won't do. there is a lot of restiance in the Israeli intelligence and military to raids on Iran, it's being pushed however by the right wingers in the govenment who in turn are being pushed by those outside Israel who want the Israleis to do their dirty work for them.

http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/iran-israel-attend-secret-nuclear-meet-in-cairo-1.5675



This is an interesting story, of how the Israelis cancelled an exercise with American troops and Obama is worried it makes America look weak in front of the Iranians.
http://www.theatlantic.com/internat...exercise-postponed-at-israels-request/251512/


Having the best intelligence organisation in the world is obviously a mixed blessing for Isreal as people give it far more credit than it actually deserves. It's getting into the realsm of fictions with Mossad agents everywhere fermenting wars with their fiendish twists and turns, bluff and double bluff, perhaps they should change the name to the Monty Python Office instead of just the Office. I can read between the lines here when people suggest the Israelis are doing this sort of manipulation, it's as if someone is saying well, what do you expect they're Jews after all, actually it's not reading between the lines at all, I've actually had it said to me that the Israelis are expected to be sneakier than anyone else because they are Jews....sign.

 

[Bill Mattocks]

Actually it could just have easily been one of a number of countries that blew up the scientiest in Iran, including the Iranians if he was a dissident.
One thing to remember is that Israel is a democratic country so saying that 'Israel' wants this and wants that isn't eaxactly true, there are as many political views, the same as there are in America and the UK. A good many of you don't agree with your President so it wouldn't be true to say all America wants something because he does ie the Obama healthcare stuff. A good many will not want war with Iran, a good many won't want attacks on Iran and their view may well prevail. The Israelis are just as capable of forcing their government out and electing a new one.
It might be better to stop reading what certain non Israeli people want Israel to do and taking that as gospel truth. it might be better to actually ask the Israelis instead of taking it at second hand what they will or won't do. there is a lot of restiance in the Israeli intelligence and military to raids on Iran, it's being pushed however by the right wingers in the govenment who in turn are being pushed by those outside Israel who want the Israleis to do their dirty work for them.

http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/iran-israel-attend-secret-nuclear-meet-in-cairo-1.5675



This is an interesting story, of how the Israelis cancelled an exercise with American troops and Obama is worried it makes America look weak in front of the Iranians.
http://www.theatlantic.com/internat...exercise-postponed-at-israels-request/251512/


Having the best intelligence organisation in the world is obviously a mixed blessing for Isreal as people give it far more credit than it actually deserves. It's getting into the realsm of fictions with Mossad agents everywhere fermenting wars with their fiendish twists and turns, bluff and double bluff, perhaps they should change the name to the Monty Python Office instead of just the Office. I can read between the lines here when people suggest the Israelis are doing this sort of manipulation, it's as if someone is saying well, what do you expect they're Jews after all, actually it's not reading between the lines at all, I've actually had it said to me that the Israelis are expected to be sneakier than anyone else because they are Jews....sign.

That's all interesting, but let's face facts. The state of Israel will not permit a threat to its existence from Iran. It has proven that it won't permit other nations in the area to do so; bombing both Iraq and Syria's nuclear reactors. Nothing, not one thing, has changed that will alter that paradigm.

Yes, Israel is a democracy, and it's a noisy one, with lots of people who want different things. However, when it comes to other nations in the area setting up nuclear reactors, it doesn't dither or dilly-dally. No deep introspection, no hem and hawing. They just go and do it.

Is it because they are Jews? Oh, wow. Sure, yeah, I'd argue it is. Not because of the fact of their religion or their culture, but because of the history of the modern-day nation of Israel. Coming out of the Holocaust, they swore 'never again' and they meant it. That still drives their response to existential threats.

All the letters to the editor in the Jerusalem Post and navel-gazing are not going to change that.

 

[Razor]

Your biases are out there in writing for all to see I'm afraid as is your ignorance of who is atually doing what to whom. Your idea of Israel being the bully in the Middle East is as way out as someone suggesting the Isle of Wight is bullying America. really, you are offering another pesepctive? What of? the current Iranian thinking? Are you going to add Holocaust denial to that as well?

I do not have a bias unless what I have read and observed is biasing. Sure, I don't know everything about the situation, but then I never claimed to. Everyone is ignorant of some things or lying. I get the impression that Israel is surrounded by hostile countries and in turn is hostile back, supported by the US and UK. If you can't see the point of the perspective, it is lost on you. Please stop trying to paint me as your archetypal Holocaust denying racist. Firstly, you do not know how far from the truth you are (but you don't know me, so we'll give you the benefit of the doubt, even though if I didn't know someone I wouldn't go making assumptions and accusations) and secondly, it is getting rather tiring having to tell you that I am not. Please see the distinction above between anti-semitism and criticism.

Interesting that you have backracked though from calling Israel a bully to now saying they have the potential to bully. I suggest you read up your history and see why the Middle East is the way it is, look up the Mufti of Jerusalem who was a staunch Nazi supporter, even went to live in Germany after the British kicked out, read also about his nephew Yasser Arafat and the PLO who still push the Protocols of the Elders of Zion as being true. Look at the Iranian insistance that the Holocaust never happened, look at teh declaration made by the Arabs after the Declaration of Independance that the Jews would be swept away into the sea and destroyed forever, then look to see how many times that is said now, I can assure it's many times. If you choose to be blind fine but don't assert that what you think is the actually the truth.
So, the massacres in Iraq and the daily massacres in Iran are stupid are they? The ethnic cleansing of the Kurds is also stupid? Well, that's your opinion and I'm sure you are entitled to it, and you called my comments feeble, son, you are aving a larf.

I never said the Iranians or Arabs were a bunch of fluffy bunnies. They've done their share of bad things, like most countries. I will read up on my history; I actually seek to learn and try to understand the perspective of others instead of personally attacking anyone I disagree with rather than their point. What was feeble was your comments directed towards me and my education rather than the point at hand.

No, you don't. When it is raining, you are argue that weather is unfair. Nothing to do with reality.

I don't want Iran to have nuclear weaponry, because they will use it on Israel as soon as they do. End of statement. Good, bad, blah blah blah. The moral distinctions are all important, but they stand in line behind what is.

I said 'blah blah blah' because your talking points are boring, inane, ridiculous and by the way, sound like a broken record. I said 'hand-wringing' because I get really tired of that 'blame America first' mentality which tends to go along with notions that if we let madmen have atomic weapons, they won't use them.

I'm not engaging in discussion because there is nothing to discuss. Iran will continue to enrich uranium. That's not a political statement, that is a fact. Israel will not permit this to occur past a certain point. That's another certainty.

You can 'think different' up one side and down the other. When it rains, we get wet. That's the reality. Israel a bully? Wah. Tell me what difference that makes. The USA evil? Tsk, tsk. Tell me how that knowledge changes anything.

Not liking the weather doesn't stop it. 'Think differently' about a mugger, see how it stops him from mugging you. Reality trumps happy thoughts.

Sure. I prefer to have a read or listen to what others have to say who I don't agree with (interestingly, why I read many of your posts). If you find other viewpoints boring however, I shall try not to give them to you. Also, I don't have a "blame America first" mentality, rather an understanding of some of the history (sorry Tez, but I don't know it all).

I am a little confused however, as to what the point of the thread is. Is it just to tell everyone what you think? You seem adamant that Iran will attack Israel if it develops nuclear weapons. Or are you just trying to focus purely on the pragmatics of the situation rather than history, perspective etc?

 

[Tez3]

That's all interesting, but let's face facts. The state of Israel will not permit a threat to its existence from Iran. It has proven that it won't permit other nations in the area to do so; bombing both Iraq and Syria's nuclear reactors. Nothing, not one thing, has changed that will alter that paradigm.

Yes, Israel is a democracy, and it's a noisy one, with lots of people who want different things. However, when it comes to other nations in the area setting up nuclear reactors, it doesn't dither or dilly-dally. No deep introspection, no hem and hawing. They just go and do it.

Is it because they are Jews? Oh, wow. Sure, yeah, I'd argue it is. Not because of the fact of their religion or their culture, but because of the history of the modern-day nation of Israel. Coming out of the Holocaust, they swore 'never again' and they meant it. That still drives their response to existential threats.

All the letters to the editor in the Jerusalem Post and navel-gazing are not going to change that.

To you they are 'they,' to me they are 'us'.


Are you trying to overlook the fact that Obama is pushing Israel to do his dirty work for him? sounds like he's half way there when you are all stating Israel this and Israel that, you all believe that it's in Israel's interest to bomb Iran. A lot of Israeli intel and military people don't actually think it is, they aren't writng letters they are arguing with the Prime Minister. No-one ever accused the Israelis of being stupid, stop your president pushing war on the Middle East. Everyone goes on about how much aid Israel gets but it comes at a price, if Israel wants American aid it has to pay for it in ways that aren't always in the best interests of the Middle East. It's said that Israel threatened to bomb Iraq and America gave it Scud missiles not to, but it works the other way too, if Israel wants certain things like Scud missiles America can make Israel do it's dirty work. It depends who your president is and who the government is in Israel, it's far from being a one way street.

 

[Tez3]

I do not have a bias unless what I have read and observed is biasing. Sure, I don't know everything about the situation, but then I never claimed to. Everyone is ignorant of some things or lying. I get the impression that Israel is surrounded by hostile countries and in turn is hostile back, supported by the US and UK. If you can't see the point of the perspective, it is lost on you. Please stop trying to paint me as your archetypal Holocaust denying racist. Firstly, you do not know how far from the truth you are (but you don't know me, so we'll give you the benefit of the doubt, even though if I didn't know someone I wouldn't go making assumptions and accusations) and secondly, it is getting rather tiring having to tell you that I am not. Please see the distinction above between anti-semitism and criticism.



I never said the Iranians or Arabs were a bunch of fluffy bunnies. They've done their share of bad things, like most countries. I will read up on my history; I actually seek to learn and try to understand the perspective of others instead of personally attacking anyone I disagree with rather than their point. What was feeble was your comments directed towards me and my education rather than the point at hand.



Sure. I prefer to have a read or listen to what others have to say who I don't agree with (interestingly, why I read many of your posts). If you find other viewpoints boring however, I shall try not to give them to you. Also, I don't have a "blame America first" mentality, rather an understanding of some of the history (sorry Tez, but I don't know it all).

I am a little confused however, as to what the point of the thread is. Is it just to tell everyone what you think? You seem adamant that Iran will attack Israel if it develops nuclear weapons. Or are you just trying to focus purely on the pragmatics of the situation rather than history, perspective etc?

It's not my thread you will have to ask the OP.

 

[Razor]

So may I conclude based on religious attendence that the UK is a muslim nation sir?

No. Perhaps I did not explain it very well, but religion is tied in to the culture of the country. So it is not just dependent on who attends which church, but more on what the prevailing religion that has become culturally significant is. Also, it would depend on what you mean by a "Muslim nation". Sociologists have been arguing over what makes a nation religious for a while now, and to my knowledge, there is no universally accepted definition yet of what exactly defines the religion of the nation. I think in general it is thought of as the one linked to foundation of the country, at least the one that is dominant at the time.

 

[Razor]

It's not my thread you will have to ask the OP.

Yes, sorry if it is not clear, but that is aimed at Bill. I do not intend to derail the thread if he is purely interested in the pragmatics of the situation.

 

[Bill Mattocks]

I am a little confused however, as to what the point of the thread is. Is it just to tell everyone what you think? You seem adamant that Iran will attack Israel if it develops nuclear weapons. Or are you just trying to focus purely on the pragmatics of the situation rather than history, perspective etc?

I never asked "should Israel attack Iran?" That's because I take it as a given that they will. I have explained why. Rather than get a counter-argument that Israel won't attack Iran, we get a lot of blather about how Israel is bad and evil, the US is bad and evil, and no one should attack Iran, there's no proof Iran is trying to build a nuclear weapon, and etc.

As I said in my analogy, which I still think is rather apt, it as if I had posited that it is raining out. Rather than having anyone contradict me and tell me that no, it is not raining, instead I got a bunch of hoo-hah about how weather is evil. Nothing to do with the topic whatsoever.

I say Iran will continue to enrich uranium, for whatever purpose. I also say that past a certain point, Israel won't let them do that. If you disagree, cool. But if it's all just a bunch of crap about how bad Israel and the USA are, sorry, not interested. It's got nothing to do with what will happen or won't happen, only about how you feel about it all.

 

[Bill Mattocks]

To you they are 'they,' to me they are 'us'.


Are you trying to overlook the fact that Obama is pushing Israel to do his dirty work for him? sounds like he's half way there when you are all stating Israel this and Israel that, you all believe that it's in Israel's interest to bomb Iran. A lot of Israeli intel and military people don't actually think it is, they aren't writng letters they are arguing with the Prime Minister. No-one ever accused the Israelis of being stupid, stop your president pushing war on the Middle East. Everyone goes on about how much aid Israel gets but it comes at a price, if Israel wants American aid it has to pay for it in ways that aren't always in the best interests of the Middle East. It's said that Israel threatened to bomb Iraq and America gave it Scud missiles not to, but it works the other way too, if Israel wants certain things like Scud missiles America can make Israel do it's dirty work. It depends who your president is and who the government is in Israel, it's far from being a one way street.

I'm not overlooking anything. I'm quoting history and making a prediction based on that. Sorry, not a lot of wiggle room there; I'm not interested in side-discussions about how evil the US is (as I keep saying). Are we evil? Sure yeah whatever. I don't care, or to be more precise, I care less about that than I do that Iran not get nuclear capability. But I am confident that Israel will take action before that becomes a reality, based on history if nothing else. Who holds their leash? Don't know, don't care.

 

[Razor]

I contend that it is relevant but dependent on the scope of the discussion. I did not give "a load of hoo hah" about everywhere being evil; in fact in your analogy it is probably more akin to discussing meteorology with you, which you have no interest in, and simply want everyone to talk about whether or not it is raining.

 

[Bill Mattocks]

I contend that it is relevant but dependent on the scope of the discussion. I did not give "a load of hoo hah" about everywhere being evil; in fact in your analogy it is probably more akin to discussing meteorology with you, which you have no interest in, and simply want everyone to talk about whether or not it is raining.

OK, I get it. I often have trouble with this. It's like I posit that 2+2=4 and instead of getting argument about it, I get argument about how mathematics is essentially unfair. What? I'm sorry I didn't realize you knew that and were trying to inject the "but this is wrong" argument for other reasons. My bad.

 

[Tez3]

I'm not overlooking anything. I'm quoting history and making a prediction based on that. Sorry, not a lot of wiggle room there; I'm not interested in side-discussions about how evil the US is (as I keep saying). Are we evil? Sure yeah whatever. I don't care, or to be more precise, I care less about that than I do that Iran not get nuclear capability. But I am confident that Israel will take action before that becomes a reality, based on history if nothing else. Who holds their leash? Don't know, don't care.

I don't think America is evil, it, like everyone else, is trying to do what's best for it's people.

It's expedient for you to have Israel attack Iran rather than for you to want your country to do it even if Israel is destroyed in the process.

You will never get a discussion with the word Israel in it that doesn't generate a lot of 'side discussions', Israel is either the country of the devils spawn or the place that is a miracle, you will never get a straight discussion about it, some people even get mentally ill when they visit ie Jerusalem Syndrome.
You should care about what goes on there because it's likely that's where the next world war will start and that will very much affect you, with the alliances made there..China etc.

 

[Tez3]

OK, I get it. I often have trouble with this. It's like I posit that 2+2=4 and instead of getting argument about it, I get argument about how mathematics is essentially unfair. What? I'm sorry I didn't realize you knew that and were trying to inject the "but this is wrong" argument for other reasons. My bad.

Bear in mind we talk about the weather a lot, well nearly all the time here! so rain was probably the wrong thing to mention when answering him!

 

[Bill Mattocks]

I don't think America is evil, it, like everyone else, is trying to do what's best for it's people.

It's expedient for you to have Israel attack Iran rather than for you to want your country to do it even if Israel is destroyed in the process.

You will never get a discussion with the word Israel in it that doesn't generate a lot of 'side discussions', Israel is either the country of the devils spawn or the place that is a miracle, you will never get a straight discussion about it, some people even get mentally ill when they visit ie Jerusalem Syndrome.
You should care about what goes on there because it's likely that's where the next world war will start and that will very much affect you, with the alliances made there..China etc.

I do care about what goes on there. I just don't think it has anything to do with what's about to happen. It's a side-issue. Fascinating as all things political and religious and cultural are, but when it comes to what happens next, doesn't mean a thing.

 

[CanuckMA]

I have serious doubts that Israel launches a pre-emptive strike at Iran. It has too much to lose.

 

[Bill Mattocks]

I have serious doubts that Israel launches a pre-emptive strike at Iran. It has too much to lose.

Why would they strike Iraq and Syria for the same reasons (nuclear power plants) and not Iran? What does it have to lose that it did NOT have to lose when it did the same to them?

 

[Tez3]

Why would they strike Iraq and Syria for the same reasons (nuclear power plants) and not Iran? What does it have to lose that it did NOT have to lose when it did the same to them?

For a start Iran has China as a major ally. China has made big investments in Iran and won't see them destroyed. Iran is also a big supplier of oil to China who won't risk having an oil shortage. Russia is another, less powerful these days, ally as is Germany and France who supply goods to Iran.