On Iran

[CanuckMA]

Where's he gonna go, Canada?

If the Middle East blows up, we'll be right there, front and centre of the fight.

 

[Makalakumu]

I've also read dozens of assertions that this or that crisis is about to be the last mistake the US makes.

The US will still be here, it's just that all of this is going to happen if we get involved in Iran.

1. It will require boots on the ground. Once we start dropping bombs, it won't end until Tehran falls. The religious leaders of Iran will use the war to consolidate opposition and outside forces will have to dig them out.
2. It will spike oil prices and cause everything we need to live our lives to spiral upwards. For every one calorie of food we consume, it takes ten calories of oil to produce. When the first bomb drops, prices will jump by at least 20%.
3. It will cost the unborn their livelihood. The US government is already mired in war debt from the last ten years. Adding more will pretty much ensure that our children will live with much more diminished standard of living.
4. It will kill the US dollar and the Economy. As we struggle to pay for the war and bailout the banks that will fall from the reduced economic activity, the value of our money will plummet. Thereby forcing the world to come up with a new currency.
5. Iran will engage in real terrorism and asymmetrical tactics to fight us. It's very possible that we could see cells activating over here, in Europe, and anywhere else that is engaged in violence against them.
6. The US will cease to be a free country. Right now, we have uber-dictatorial powers on the books. When this war starts and the casualties start pouring in and the real terrorists attack us, we'll lose all of our freedom and it will never come back. The Washington Post wrote about this Friday the 13th.
7. It might lead to WWIII. Russia and China have both pledged to aid Iran should an attack come. Will they back up there words with an actual nuclear exchange with the US? I sincerely hope not, but history is full of examples when countries with ties suddenly went insane. WWI comes to mind.

This is a list of consequences I'd rather not face and I think that I can avoid it...one way or another.

 

[Makalakumu]

But as I said; and you keep simply ignoring; what is going to happen is that Iran is going to keep trying to gain nuclear capability.

How do you know that they even want a nuke?

The last IAEA report has turned out to be largely a piece of war propaganda that incorporated all kinds of bogus charges that were previously panned by Nuclear watchdogs.

http://www.fpif.org/blog/do_irans_objections_to_the_iaea_report_deserve_consideration

 

[Makalakumu]

We shouldnt EVER turn our backs on our friends. I dont understand why people think its ok to turn our backs on Israel but would never think of doing that to other places like the UK. I hope its not because Israel is a Jewish state but sadly I cant think of any other reasons. I believe we stand by our friends.

The state of Israel is not my friend. I have people who are my friends, not governments.

At any rate, I'm not an anti-semite. I have priorities.

1. My family.
2. My friends.
3. My property.

I want the best outcome I can possibly get for these things. Going along with an attack on Iran or watching while the country that encloses my property performs it, is not going to deliver a very good outcome. Look at the list I posted above.

If Israel attacks Iran without us, it will be FAR less disruptive then if we went to war and exacerbated all of our financial problems, pissed off Russia and China, and torched the Bill of Rights. The biggest problem that an Israeli strike on Iran will be the subsequent disruption in the global economy. The oil that comes out of the region is vital and this disruption could very well trigger a Depression.

Therefore, our political leaders need to condemn this possible strike. They need to threaten to disavow ties to their government if they do. They need to demand diplomacy, better intelligence, and good faith.

That's how we avert this thing.

 

[Big Don]

if you (they) hate it so much, and you think we're on the brink of destruction, and you'd rather live in a more civilized nation, there's the door. Go on, git. Unlike many other of the nations you love to suck up to and cry over, our citizens are free to leave whenever they wish. We've never built fences to keep ours in.

qft

 

[Makalakumu]

You don't trust our government, but, you do trust these a holes?

Not when my government is doing things like this. Wikileaks released a cable that showed how the US positioned the new IAEA head.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/us-embassy-cables-documents/230076

Amano reminded Ambassador on several occasions that he would need to make concessions to the G-77, which correctly required him to be fair-minded and independent, but that he was solidly in the U.S. court on every key strategic decision, from high-level personnel appointments to the handling of Iran's alleged nuclear weapons program.

The last IAEA report was a major embarrassment for the US and the War Mongering Neocons. Their response was to get rid of El-Baradi and put in their guy.

That says a couple of things about you, and none of them are good...

LOL! When you tell me I've gone astray, I know I'm on the right track.

 

[Makalakumu]

Unlike many other of the nations you love to suck up to and cry over, our citizens are free to leave whenever they wish. We've never built fences to keep ours in.

Actually, the US has some of the most strict laws in the world when it comes to people living abroad and taxes. This country doesn't let go of it's tax-cattle easily.

http://www.ehow.com/list_6851601_countries-file-taxes-living-abroad.html

Living abroad as an expatriate is a dream for some people and a reality for others; taxes are just one of the realities of living abroad. The shadow of taxes follows many people across international borders, the United States having the strictest tax laws for residents living abroad; however, citizens of other countries are also not necessarily exempt from paying taxes while living as expatriates abroad.

The deeper we dig this hole, the harder it's going to be able to leave. We collectively need to get our heads screwed on straight when it comes to the guns and butter state because it's going to eat everything we have.
​

 

[Big Don]

Actually, the US has some of the most strict laws in the world when it comes to people living abroad and taxes. This country doesn't let go of it's tax-cattle easily.

http://www.ehow.com/list_6851601_countries-file-taxes-living-abroad.html

The deeper we dig this hole, the harder it's going to be able to leave. We collectively need to get our heads screwed on straight when it comes to the guns and butter state because it's going to eat everything we have.
​

Then make sure to completely cash out before you leave! Take all your cash, sell everything you can't carry and BLOW. But, for the love of Mike, STFU and GO already.

 

[Makalakumu]

Then make sure to completely cash out before you leave! Take all your cash, sell everything you can't carry and BLOW. But, for the love of Mike, STFU and GO already.

:bangahead:

Don't worry, Don. It might not be much longer. I'm not sticking while the Vandals sack the place. Especially since our own people opened the god damned doors.

 

[Razor]

They are the single largest supporters of Hamas. That puts them in the 'against Israel' category. And my link to the Six Day War was meant to illustrate that when nations attack Israel, Israel strikes first and hardest. Therefore, before Iran gets to the point of being able to build a nuclear device, Israel will stop them. This is not speculation; this will happen.

That means speculation and urging 'talk' regarding Iran is of no use. It's pointless because Iran will keep enriching uranium, and at some point very soon, Israel will stop them. Then the real issues start.



Blah blah blah. It's not about who is oppressed and who is the bully. Iran is not going to get access to nukes. They are playing a good game of brinksmanship, but it's not going to happen. Are we the bad evil overlords and they are just the poor oppressed peace-obsessed little guys? Fine, paint it that way. I don't care. I want Iran stopped. Most of the world does too. And that is going to happen.

Who's the bad guy? I don't care if we are. Yay bad guys. I do not want Iran to have nuclear weapons. Wring your hands all you like, Iran is not going to be permitted to have nukes.

All I offer you is a different perspective. I find it abhorrent that you don't even care if you are the "bad guys". Most people want to actually be "good" in some respect even if this is and ill defined and vague concept. In any case, you have reminded me why I generally avoid talking to entrenched, vitriolic people about this kind of thing. You people go on about "hand-wringing" and descend into childish statements like "blah blah blah" when exposed to another viewpoint and at the end of the day there is little use talking about it.

Ah Razor, someone has you nicely brainwashed? BNP, NF perhaps? I could point out that Israel is a tiny country which the Arabs have said they will destroy and drive it's people into the sea. They continue to say that. When Israel was given it's independance by the United Nations, it offered peace to each of it;'s neighbours, did they take that offer? No, they said they would destroy the Jews and Israel. How many times have Arabs countries attacked Israel? How many times have they shouted 'death to the Jews'? Every day.
The big bullies eh? yeah Isreal would be a big bully, it has the odd idea that it's people should live in peace, strange that isn't it? those poor goliath countries, so misunderstood, so afraid of big bad Jews, how one's heart bleeds for them. Such a peaceful place Syria, they don't make war on other countries do they? Not at the moment, they are too busy machine gunning their own people down in the street. Men, women and children lying in their own blood killed by their own people. Iraq, now, that's a nice peaceful place, remember that nice man Saddam? he gassed whole towns. The tried to ethnically cleanse the Kurds, a very ancient people btw, the Israelis tried to help them from being slaughtered, well why not after all they knew what that was like after having 6 million of their own killed in just the way Saddam wanted to destroy the Kurds.

I think it must an indictment of our education system that you don't actually know the history of Israel and 'who started it'. That you can imagine Israel is this big bully that goes around attacking it's neighbours would be laughable if it weren't so sad and so, so wrong.

What you say seems entirely stupid, not to mention insulting. Just because I encourage people to think differently about the situation with Iran (BNP and NF support Iran? Are we thinking of the same organisations?) that makes me a racist, right-wing crazy? Why is brainwashing necessary to try and talk about this?

Israel is a tiny country which punches massively against it's weight. They have the potential to bully, in the same way many other smaller countries can.

If you go back and read the comment you will see that I was referring to who started threatening who. I think it is an indictment of our education system that you jump to conclusion, feebly attempt to put words in people's mouths and are not even open minded enough to engage with a different perspective without starting to accuse others of biases that you pull out of nowhere.

 

[Tez3]

All I offer you is a different perspective. I find it abhorrent that you don't even care if you are the "bad guys". Most people want to actually be "good" in some respect even if this is and ill defined and vague concept. In any case, you have reminded me why I generally avoid talking to entrenched, vitriolic people about this kind of thing. You people go on about "hand-wringing" and descend into childish statements like "blah blah blah" when exposed to another viewpoint and at the end of the day there is little use talking about it.



What you say seems entirely stupid, not to mention insulting. Just because I encourage people to think differently about the situation with Iran (BNP and NF support Iran? Are we thinking of the same organisations?) that makes me a racist, right-wing crazy? Why is brainwashing necessary to try and talk about this?

Israel is a tiny country which punches massively against it's weight. They have the potential to bully, in the same way many other smaller countries can.

If you go back and read the comment you will see that I was referring to who started threatening who. I think it is an indictment of our education system that you jump to conclusion, feebly attempt to put words in people's mouths and are not even open minded enough to engage with a different perspective without starting to accuse others of biases that you pull out of nowhere.

Your biases are out there in writing for all to see I'm afraid as is your ignorance of who is atually doing what to whom. Your idea of Israel being the bully in the Middle East is as way out as someone suggesting the Isle of Wight is bullying America. really, you are offering another pesepctive? What of? the current Iranian thinking? Are you going to add Holocaust denial to that as well?
Interesting that you have backracked though from calling Israel a bully to now saying they have the potential to bully. I suggest you read up your history and see why the Middle East is the way it is, look up the Mufti of Jerusalem who was a staunch Nazi supporter, even went to live in Germany after the British kicked out, read also about his nephew Yasser Arafat and the PLO who still push the Protocols of the Elders of Zion as being true. Look at the Iranian insistance that the Holocaust never happened, look at teh declaration made by the Arabs after the Declaration of Independance that the Jews would be swept away into the sea and destroyed forever, then look to see how many times that is said now, I can assure it's many times. If you choose to be blind fine but don't assert that what you think is the actually the truth.
So, the massacres in Iraq and the daily massacres in Iran are stupid are they? The ethnic cleansing of the Kurds is also stupid? Well, that's your opinion and I'm sure you are entitled to it, and you called my comments feeble, son, you are aving a larf.

 

[Tez3]

Which is precisely what happened during the Gulf Wars. The only thing that kept Israel from responding to the attacks on them was the Coalition's promise (primarily via America's anti-missile systems and Britain's special forces) to defend their population centres from the Scud's.

The balance of things may have shifted somewhat since the 60's and 70's and political memories are short but those rattling sabres against Israel would do well to remember how they reacted when attacked back then, including what they did to Egypt's nuclear programme.

It is deeply sorrowful to think that we are yet again on the brink of another war, this one with the potential to spread into something far more horrifying than we have witnessed in this century.

Those that have noted the role of Britain and later America in forging the present state of affairs regarding Iran are quite right; the acts of self-interest from our governments did indeed have a large role to play in bringing us to this point.

I have to agree with the pragmatic words in some of the posts earlier, however. In a very real sense, the road we took to get here no longer matters. That 'cloth' is woven and cannot be unpicked, no matter how we might wish otherwise (and I do so wish as another war with 'religion', false as it may be, raising the flags is worrisome in the extreme).

The situation in the Middle East goes back to the end of the First World War when the Allies chopped up the whole area into parcels, gave them new names and new rulers, making tribal chiefs into kings etc. It was done in the Allies interests of course, there's no doubt there however as Mark says what's done is done and now we have to all these years later reap what was sown then and try to sort out the mess. We could all wash our hands of the situation there but of course there's the oil.

I think it's unlikely to be honest that there will be a war with Iran, we may come to the brink of it every so often but I don't think we will actually get there. After years of having this sort of relationship with the USSR did we ever actually go to war with them despite all the posturing, the practicing, the readiness alerts and the spying. Countries cannot afford to go to war anymore, Iran no more than anywhere else.Iran has already had a hugely sapping war with Iraq, we are tied up in afghanistan, no one can afford to go to war. As for nuclear weapons, they are good bargaining point, again go back to the USSR model, we had them, they did, having a nuclear war would destroy all of us, so in real terms how mad do you think the Iranian leadership is? How mad would an American president have to be to unleash them? We are playing with fire on boths sides, it's a game of brinkmanship and risk but at some point there will be an accommodation made. It will be made because it has to be, all sides know that. Iran knows that while the other Muslim countries will support them publically they will not in private, many of them trade with Israel on the quiet and have come to private terms with it while posturing in public against it.


The economic situation in America, job losses, the banks etc are what will drive the next election plus the American political subjects such as abortion, crime, religion etc. all things a people in any country are rightly worried about. War with Iran won't be the first people think about when voting I'm sure. It's not a subject that comes up here very often though I'm sure it's exercising the Foreign Offices brains. We will continue to posture at each other, to make threats and be generally unfriendly but behind closed doors there will be people talking to each other insincerely of course but talking not declaring war. Israel isn't going to attack Iran, it may interfere with things a bit though but Iran does the same in Israel, it will stay at a 'manageable' level. Anyway, if we do have a nuclear war, that'll be the planet done with so probably not a lot of point in really worrying about it.

 

[Bill Mattocks]

How do you know that they even want a nuke?

The last IAEA report has turned out to be largely a piece of war propaganda that incorporated all kinds of bogus charges that were previously panned by Nuclear watchdogs.

http://www.fpif.org/blog/do_irans_objections_to_the_iaea_report_deserve_consideration

First, keep in mind that you're a vast believer in conspiracies. You see boogey-men behind every tree. Anything that happens, was actually caused by some other group, for nefarious purposes. I hate to say it, but you are a very paranoid person and many of your posts indicate you don't have a firm grip on reality. You're also a very nice person and I like you. But dude.

Second, Iran has stated that they will not stop enriching uranium. As recently as yesterday.

The claim it is for peaceful purposes. And that does not matter as far as the Israelis are concerned. They will attack if they feel they have no other options left.

It does not matter that Iran says 'peaceful' and most of the rest of the world says 'weapons'. Israel won't let Iran have nuclear capability.

 

[Bill Mattocks]

All I offer you is a different perspective.

No, you don't. When it is raining, you are argue that weather is unfair. Nothing to do with reality.

I find it abhorrent that you don't even care if you are the "bad guys".

I don't want Iran to have nuclear weaponry, because they will use it on Israel as soon as they do. End of statement. Good, bad, blah blah blah. The moral distinctions are all important, but they stand in line behind what is.

Most people want to actually be "good" in some respect even if this is and ill defined and vague concept. In any case, you have reminded me why I generally avoid talking to entrenched, vitriolic people about this kind of thing. You people go on about "hand-wringing" and descend into childish statements like "blah blah blah" when exposed to another viewpoint and at the end of the day there is little use talking about it.

I said 'blah blah blah' because your talking points are boring, inane, ridiculous and by the way, sound like a broken record. I said 'hand-wringing' because I get really tired of that 'blame America first' mentality which tends to go along with notions that if we let madmen have atomic weapons, they won't use them.

What you say seems entirely stupid, not to mention insulting. Just because I encourage people to think differently about the situation with Iran (BNP and NF support Iran? Are we thinking of the same organisations?) that makes me a racist, right-wing crazy? Why is brainwashing necessary to try and talk about this?

Israel is a tiny country which punches massively against it's weight. They have the potential to bully, in the same way many other smaller countries can.

If you go back and read the comment you will see that I was referring to who started threatening who. I think it is an indictment of our education system that you jump to conclusion, feebly attempt to put words in people's mouths and are not even open minded enough to engage with a different perspective without starting to accuse others of biases that you pull out of nowhere.

I'm not engaging in discussion because there is nothing to discuss. Iran will continue to enrich uranium. That's not a political statement, that is a fact. Israel will not permit this to occur past a certain point. That's another certainty.

You can 'think different' up one side and down the other. When it rains, we get wet. That's the reality. Israel a bully? Wah. Tell me what difference that makes. The USA evil? Tsk, tsk. Tell me how that knowledge changes anything.

Not liking the weather doesn't stop it. 'Think differently' about a mugger, see how it stops him from mugging you. Reality trumps happy thoughts.

 

[Tez3]

First, keep in mind that you're a vast believer in conspiracies. You see boogey-men behind every tree. Anything that happens, was actually caused by some other group, for nefarious purposes. I hate to say it, but you are a very paranoid person and many of your posts indicate you don't have a firm grip on reality. You're also a very nice person and I like you. But dude.

Second, Iran has stated that they will not stop enriching uranium. As recently as yesterday.

The claim it is for peaceful purposes. And that does not matter as far as the Israelis are concerned. They will attack if they feel they have no other options left.

It does not matter that Iran says 'peaceful' and most of the rest of the world says 'weapons'. Israel won't let Iran have nuclear capability.

It's by no means certain that Israel will attack Iran though, there's considerable debate in Israel about it.
http://www.haaretz.com/weekend/week...ael-attack-iran-s-nuclear-facilities-1.394964

 

[jks9199]

Hey, everybody...

Let's turn the heat down a bit, OK? Stick to the issues and drop the vitriol.

 

[Big Don]

If they will lie to maximize their capabilities, they will certainly lie to minimize them...

 

[Bill Mattocks]

It's by no means certain that Israel will attack Iran though, there's considerable debate in Israel about it.
http://www.haaretz.com/weekend/week...ael-attack-iran-s-nuclear-facilities-1.394964

Consider that Israel (we all agree that it was Israel, right?) just assassinated what, Iranian scientist number four in Tehran? Consider their track record in dealing with enemies that confront them. From the Six Day War to the recent bombings of Syrian nuclear facilities, when have you ever known Israel to not viciously and aggressively defend itself? Newspaper belly-button gazing aside, it is very clear what Israel will do if they feel threatened.

Put another way, Israel has bombed Iraqi and Syrian nuclear facilities. Why would they NOT bomb Iranian ones?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Opera

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Orchard

We could argue about whether or not Israel was 'right' to bomb those two nuclear facilities; but the fact is, they did it. And I have no reason to believe they won't do it again.

 

[oftheherd1]

No, I don't. Point made. However, Iran must be denied nuclear capability. If that means bombing them, then that's what it means. I would not support another Pueblo, Liberty, or Maine. In fact, I would find it despicable that we could not simply attack Iran on the basis of the threat itself, rather than having to manufacture a pretext. But I also would not be surprised if it happened.

Sorry Bill, I am a little confused. Do you mean you think those ship incidents were engineered by our government, or disagree with anyone twisting facts for their own purposes?

I see the point you're making, and I just want to say that Iran is not exactly a Muslim country. Your point is perfectly valid as most of those in power (in government) are Muslim (i.e. the people who would use the weapons anyway). However, Islam has never featured much in Iran before 1979, at least among the better educated, urban population. Parts of it that were (and are) Muslim are Muslim a bit like the UK is "Christian". If you're not familiar with Christianity in the UK, 4-5% of people go to church, and a lot of attendance is for things like Midnight Mass at Christmas. Religion is loosely tied in to the state and more of a cultural than religious phenomenon. Similarly, Iran has little attachment to Islam, which has been spread there originally by invading Arabs anyway. If you can find anyone who lived in Iran before 1979, ask them how religious it was (or is if they have been back there)!

(Just to be clear, I'm talking mainly about the actual people here rather than the religion imposed by the state)

So may I conclude based on religious attendence that the UK is a muslim nation sir?

Iran is not Nazi Germany. They are not an industrial power and do not have the ability to threaten us like the Nazi's...assuming one imagines that the Nazis could have mountain an invasion of North America. This is just more propaganda.

I would submit and agree sir, that the current Iran does not resemble Nazi Germany at its height. But Germany didn't start out that way either. It was a poor defeated nation in the throes of a world-wide depression, but taken over by politicians who led it down a path seeking world domination. Given time and more successes than it got, they could well have attacked North America.

By the way Makalakumu, I very much agree to you being entitled to your opinions. I generally read your posts, but seldom agree with your beliefs. I also note that you can seldom be construed as constantly or even usually impolite, although sometimes a little forceful in your defense of your beliefs. But I must say, I find it astounding some of the positions you espouse. The USA is certainly not perfect, and in my opinion, our politicians are about as self serving as any anywhere. I deplore that and have said so. But we are not quite as bad as to be the most evil country in the world. Whether or not you intend it so, you make it sound as if you beleive we are the worst thing going. Do you really think so sir?

:bangahead:

Don't worry, Don. It might not be much longer. I'm not sticking while the Vandals sack the place. Especially since our own people opened the god damned doors.

I am reminded of the story of the couple prior to WWII, who correctly discerned that war was likely, and decided to leave the USA for a safe place. As I recall, they chose a backwater pacific paradise called Guam.

 

[Bill Mattocks]

Sorry Bill, I am a little confused. Do you mean you think those ship incidents were engineered by our government, or disagree with anyone twisting facts for their own purposes?

Sorry, let me explain.

I am aware that the USA has used, or is alleged to have used, pretexts for going to war. From the Maine to the Maddox, we've used attacks on US vessels, or the appearance of it, to justify war. And I am not in favor of such things, not by a long shot. Did we engineer the sinking of the Maine, or the Maddox? I don't know. What I do mean is that I'm aware of the allegations, and would not be surprised if we had. Nothing shocks me about the deceitfulness of our own government. That does not mean I 'support' such behavior. It means I accept that it happens.

Furthermore, I also do not want Iran to have nuclear capabilities. I had previously mentioned that I would not find it surprising if, since Iran is currently threatening to blockade the Straits of Hormuz, the US steams in, asserts their right to transit, and gets fired upon; thus created a palatable context for attack in the minds of many Americans. I wish we did not engage in such tactics; we don't need a pretext to remove Iran's nuclear capabilities, but I understand and fully suspect that something like this might happen.

It's a somewhat nuanced stance, and I'm sure you get it, but others seem to be struggling with it. In simple terms, I am not pleased with the thought that the US might engage in subterfuge, lies, and trickery to entice the Iranians into giving us a pretext to bomb their nuclear facilities, but at the same time, I do not want Iran to have said nuclear facilities and my objections to our machinations don't override the contempt I have for the methods we sometimes apparently use.