On Iran

[Bill Mattocks]

For a start Iran has China as a major ally.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...china-others/2012/01/17/gIQAWsHf6P_story.html

The squeeze is already beginning on Iran’s oil exports — and guess which nation quietly reduced its purchases from Tehran this month. Why, that would be China, Iran’s supposed protector.

The Chinese cut their imports from Iran roughly in half for January, trimming 285,000 barrels per day from their average last year of about 550,000 barrels per day, according to Nat Kern, the publisher of Foreign Reports, a respected industry newsletter.

China has made big investments in Iran and won't see them destroyed.

China's investments in Iran won't be touched if they didn't build the nuclear enrichment plants. And they didn't.

http://journal-neo.com/?q=node/4290

In the mid-1990s, Washington put strong pressure on Beijing over an agreement signed between China and Iran in February 1993 to build two 300-MW light-water reactors in Iran, causing Beijing to back out of a profitable deal also. Nuclear cooperation between China and Iran came to a virtual standstill during the 1997-1998 timeframe.

Iran is also a big supplier of oil to China who won't risk having an oil shortage.

As illustrated, China has already cut their purchases of Iranian oil by 50%.

Russia is another, less powerful these days, ally as is Germany and France who supply goods to Iran.

http://www.voanews.com/english/news...-Wire-on-Irans-Nuclear-Program-137490773.html

Russia built for Iran its first nuclear power plant, then refused to sell to Tehran the anti-aircraft missiles to defend it.

A high-ranking Russian told reporters in Moscow on Tuesday that it “remains unproven” that there is a military component to Iran’s nuclear program.

On the other hand, he added, Tehran’s decision to enrich uranium violates international resolutions designed to keep Iran from acquiring a nuclear bomb.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-...ran-nuclear-activity-in-qom-facility-1.406555

Russia 'regrets' reported Iran nuclear activity in Qom facility
Russian Foreign Ministry official says uranium enrichment in Fordo location shows Iran is not responding to concerns on its nuclear program.

Some friends.

http://journal-neo.com/?q=node/4290

This article outlines the history of Iran's nuclear program, from the beginning with US backing, up to the present. On a side-note, Iran recently announced triumphantly that they were one of the first signatories to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. They were. In 1970. Under the Shah of Iran. But the press eats that stuff up and ignores the back story.

Israel will bomb the nuclear plants and enrichment facilities that Iran has built. Russia built one of the plants, but as noted, has distanced themselves from Iran. Oil won't be threatened, Israel has no need to bomb Iran's oil-production facilities or destroy it as a country.

I do not think France or Germany will seriously stop Israel from doing whatever it wants to do vis-a-vis Iran.

 

[Tez3]

What is said in public is not always what is actually happening, many countries will save face by saying one thing and doing another. If asked Saudi Arabia will strenously deny trading with Israel but it does, a lot.
Guess who's saying China is investing?

http://tehrantimes.com/component/content/article/94583


http://arabiangazette.com/chinese-telecom-giant-stepping-iran-operations-sanctions/
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/209396.html


To be honest we can post up backwards and forwards but the truth is China is still a very major ally of Iran. the situation in the Middle East is not what it was when the Israeli's bombed the other sites. Russia is not to be trusted. France on it's own and Germany on it's own may do nothing but as part of NATO it could make life very difficult in many areas for allies of Israel. there's repercussions that could be felt all over the world, Israel is cognisant of this.

 

[Bill Mattocks]

What is said in public is not always what is actually happening, many countries will save face by saying one thing and doing another.

I thought the same thing about the links to newpspapers saying Israel is deeply conflicted about taking military action on Iran. Public statements don't always tell the tale. Turnabout is fair play, eh?

To be honest we can post up backwards and forwards but the truth is China is still a very major ally of Iran. the situation in the Middle East is not what it was when the Israeli's bombed the other sites. Russia is not to be trusted. France on it's own and Germany on it's own may do nothing but as part of NATO it could make life very difficult in many areas for allies of Israel. there's repercussions that could be felt all over the world, Israel is cognisant of this.

Israel bombed Syria in 2007. Not that much has changed. And Israel took major criticism by the entire world, including UN sanctions, when they bombed Iraq's nuclear plant. They didn't care. They still don't. They take existential threats very seriously, as they should.

 

[Tez3]

I thought the same thing about the links to newpspapers saying Israel is deeply conflicted about taking military action on Iran. Public statements don't always tell the tale. Turnabout is fair play, eh?



Israel bombed Syria in 2007. Not that much has changed. And Israel took major criticism by the entire world, including UN sanctions, when they bombed Iraq's nuclear plant. They didn't care. They still don't. They take existential threats very seriously, as they should.

As I said, to you Israel is they, to me it's us. Canuck has been in Israel more recently than I though I have very strong links and info from there, I find it a tad odd that you insist you know Israelis better than us. I find it interesting too that you say the Israelis don't care. What do you actually base that on? How do you know for certain Israelis don't care rather than care but don't let you know?

 

[Bill Mattocks]

As I said, to you Israel is they, to me it's us. Canuck has been in Israel more recently than I though I have very strong links and info from there, I find it a tad odd that you insist you know Israelis better than us. I find it interesting too that you say the Israelis don't care. What do you actually base that on? How do you know for certain Israelis don't care rather than care but don't let you know?

HISTORY!

I don't have to know Israel to know what Israel has done to protect itself from perceived existential threats, and what it continues to do (assassinations in Iran itself).

Do I know what the average man-on-the-street in Tel Aviv or Jerusalem thinks about all this? No. And I have no doubt that they have the same range of public opinion that any country does, from Iran to Beijing to Washington DC. I am not arguing that I know the Israeli mind. I am arguing that I am aware of history, and Israel has shown no sign that they are going to react to this threat any differently than they have in the past.

 

[CanuckMA]

Bill, you also fail to grasp Israeli politics. Any Israeli government is a house of cards. Any overt moves towards a military action in Iran would most likely topple the government.

Syria is a direct threat to Israel. You really need to be there to understand. I've stood on the northern Golan. Whithout moving your eyes, you see 3 major ennemies at your feet. Those you need to take care of. Iraq, that was a different time.
The Arab Spring has done much to change the political landscape. Not for the better. An Israeli attack on Iran would push Egypt strongly towards the Brotherhood. Jordan would use the excuse to strenghten it's position.
It's a no-win scenario for Israel. They will just wait and see what happens in the Straight.

I'm in frequent contact with Israelis, The majority opinion is against a pre-emptive strike.

 

[Bill Mattocks]

Bill, you also fail to grasp Israeli politics. Any Israeli government is a house of cards. Any overt moves towards a military action in Iran would most likely topple the government.

Syria is a direct threat to Israel. You really need to be there to understand. I've stood on the northern Golan. Whithout moving your eyes, you see 3 major ennemies at your feet. Those you need to take care of. Iraq, that was a different time.
The Arab Spring has done much to change the political landscape. Not for the better. An Israeli attack on Iran would push Egypt strongly towards the Brotherhood. Jordan would use the excuse to strenghten it's position.
It's a no-win scenario for Israel. They will just wait and see what happens in the Straight.

I'm in frequent contact with Israelis, The majority opinion is against a pre-emptive strike.

I bet the odds. Odds say Israel strikes Iran. They're doing it now with assassinations inside Iran. They'll drop bombs if they feel they can't stop Iran from going nuclear any other way.

 

[Tez3]

I bet the odds. Odds say Israel strikes Iran. They're doing it now with assassinations inside Iran. They'll drop bombs if they feel they can't stop Iran from going nuclear any other way.

You see you are so sure that it was the Israelis that are assassinating the Iranians, how can you be sure it's not the CIA, history tells us they have done this before. Don't tell me it's obvious it was the Israelis because frankly it's not. It's just as liable to be Iranians from another faction, how easy to say oh it's the Israelis whenever an Arab gets bumped off, how easy to assume, how easy for something to let people think that. Was the dead scientist a Sunni or a Shi'ite? Was he pro government or anti government? Was he pro democracy? what were his political views? so easy to blow some one up and say the Israelis did it, who's going to disbelieve it, not you. One scientist dead and that would stop the whole nuclear industry in Iran?

I was going to put some links up from Wikipedia about the Shah of Iran but of course they are on a blackout against censorship by the American government, unless of course it's the Israelis again?

 

[Bill Mattocks]

You see you are so sure that it was the Israelis that are assassinating the Iranians, how can you be sure it's not the CIA, history tells us they have done this before.

The USA has recently lost many of its assets in the region, due their own incompetence. This was revealed in late November of 2011.

http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/cia-s...on-middle-east/story?id=14994428#.Txa63KXy92A

The CIA has yet to determine precisely how many of its assets were compromised in Iran, but the number could be in the dozens, according to one current and one former U.S. intelligence official.

The exposure of the two spy networks was first announced in widely ignored televised statements by Iranian and Hezbollah leaders. U.S. officials tell ABC News that much of what was broadcast was, in fact, true.

...

Some former U.S. intelligence officials say the developments are the result of a lack of professionalism in the U.S. intelligence community.

"We've lost the tradition of espionage," said one former official who still consults for the U.S. intelligence community. "Officers take short cuts and no one is held accountable," he said.

...

"If you lose an asset, one source, that's normally a setback in espionage," said Robert Baer, who was considered an expert on Hezbollah.

"But when you lose your entire station, either in Tehran or Beirut, that's a catastrophe, that just shouldn't be. And the only way that ever happens is when you're mishandling sources."

As to why I think it is the Israelis:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/18/us-iran-methods-idUSTRE80H0NX20120118

Iranian officials remember well that before Israel's 1981 air strike on a nuclear reactor in Iraq, there were similar acts of sabotage and assassination attributed largely to Israel.

...

"Israel is the key player. It is the state that sees itself as under existential threat and has the capacity, just, to exercise a strike option."

...

"I don't know who settled the score with the Iranian scientist, but I am definitely not shedding any tears," Israel's military spokesman Brigadier-General Yoav Mordechai said on his Facebook page.

In November, days after a mysterious explosion was reported near the city of Isfahan, Meridor himself told Israeli Army Radio: "There are countries who impose economic sanctions and there are countries who act in other ways in dealing with the Iranian nuclear threat."

Exclusive Analysis's John Cochrane noted that while there was no evidence of Israeli involvement "the Israelis don't seem to mind giving the impression that they may have been."

Why do I believe it was Israel that has been performing the assassinations in Iran? They've done it before; it's S.O.P. And while I was born at night, it wasn't last night.

 

[Tez3]

Of course, what would anyone else know?

 

[CanuckMA]

Many Arab nations are not to keen on Iran getting nukes either. Could have been any one of them.

 

[72ronin]

Who's the major supplier of weapons to palestine and hamas?
Just saying..

 

[Tez3]

It could well be from inside Iran, the Iranians will blame Israel which of course Israel isn't going to deny or confirm so basically everyones satisifed. People think the Israelis are super sneaky beakies, the Iranians keep any insurrectionists quiet and no bombs dropping anywhere. Now that's more like it.

 

[Bill Mattocks]

Many Arab nations are not to keen on Iran getting nukes either. Could have been any one of them.

It might also have been the Easter Bunny. But I'm going to go with "Israel" until we find the basket of eggs.

 

[72ronin]

M0ssad did it no question about it.

 

[Tez3]

Whatever, what would we know anyway? Everyone knows Americans are always right, Isrealis always kill people and the poor Arabs are innocent.

why don't you ask Mossad themselves?
https://www.mossad.gov.il//Eng/Contact.aspx

 

[Bill Mattocks]

Whatever, what would we know anyway? Everyone knows Americans are always right, Isrealis always kill people and the poor Arabs are innocent.

why don't you ask Mossad themselves?
https://www.mossad.gov.il//Eng/Contact.aspx

Now you're just getting pouty. Don't be a sore loser.

 

[CanuckMA]

http://pjmedia.com/michaelledeen/20...nuclear-scientists-in-tehran/?singlepage=true

• Several Iranian officials and scientists involved in the nuclear project have been blown up in the last two years, but a closer look at the Iranian victims raises questions.
• The first was an academic with no apparent connection to the nuclear project, a political activist who supported the Green Movement. The second was a theoretical physicist. On the very same day, another physicist was attacked, a regime supporter and a member of the Revolutionary Guards who was an active participant in the nuclear program. The news stories spoke of a bomb, but the photographs of the crime scene don't show evidence of an explosion (they do show some bullet holes in his car). He wasn't killed. Shortly after the event, he was promoted to head the nuclear program.
• The fourth case was a university student gunned down in front of his house. He wasn't a nuclear anything, he was studying electrical engineering. There is an Iranian nuclear physicist with a similar name, but that man was out of the country. The latest victim was a chemist, not a physicist, and his main connection to the nuclear program was administrative: he worked in the purchasing office for the Natanz operation.
• There's a lot of killing in Iran, and the overwhelming majority of murders are carried out by the regime, and the victims are Iranian citizens from all walks of life. From this standpoint, the regime is the most likely perpetrator.
• Scads of writers are quite sure that the Jews did it. But the rush to judgment smacks of political passion rather than cool analysis. And I'm struck by the uncritical expertise that would have us believe the Jews can do anything, even operate at will in the center of their most formidable enemy's capital city. That one's right out of the old anti-Semitic scrolls: whenever anything happens that upsets you, just blame the Jews. They can do anything, anywhere. If only it were true.

The writer served as a consultant to the U.S. National Security Council, State Department, and Defense Department.

 

[72ronin]

What is the point to that CanuckMA, tell me you didnt just play the anti-semetic card!

 

[Tez3]

Now you're just getting pouty. Don't be a sore loser.

I'm not a loser, your beliefs are typical of people who believe Arab propaganda. Much of Mossad 'reputation' is actually made from things they haven't done. Bit like the SAS here, everyone thinks they've done more than they have when in fact the SBS or another group did, people automatically assume any sneaky beaky stuff is done by the SAS and it's simply not true. Of course the SAS and Mossad both encourage these stories because people like you believe them whole heartedly and they work nicely as a deterrent, the Gurkhas do it as well with stories of blood curdling ferocity, of course they are fierce but a reputation does you no harm at all. the Paras here as well as the Bootnecks all encourage stories about their invincability. People are killed in Iran, MUST be Mossad. Well the Iranians wouldn't kill their own would they?

Israel isn't stupid enough to believe killing a few scientists would stop any nuclear threat. Iranian scientists were also killed in Afghanistan, almost certainly not by the Israelis, not a theatre of operations for them but one with NATO on one side and Al Queda/Taliban on the other. The Iranians themselves have long pursued the policy of killing Iranians that deviated from the party line. Iranian culture is also a complicated one with tribes being opposed to each other, it's just as likely that the Kurds were to blame for the killings, they have no wish to have nuclear sites/weapons aimed at or based on land they consider theirs. The Iranians tried to kill Saudis so there's another group of suspects.

To aver so strongly that it must be Mossad is to be blinkered to the politics that is going on in Iran as well as other countries in the Middle East. It's not the politics of the Western world it's more visceral, more violent and more nasty than you would hope to imagine.