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IMO, you've really thought through the subject and are much more familiar with MMA than I. Yet, in terms of coming to reasoned conclusions, here's where I'll step in by isolating out just one block of your post. I'll abstract out the particular sentence.
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I can't see why anyone would not agree with your first sentence. Perfectly stated. I took out the last sentence because I want to tie down the issue before I would move to the changed environment. To get at the "truth."
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By my thinking, what the success of the Gracies proved in early MMA has to be qualified by the nature of the sample of "traditional" martial artists that the Gracie's faced. Two questions: ONE, were those martial artists that labeled themselves "traditional," had they achieved the level of expertise in traditional martial arts that say an acknowledged expert here, K-MAN, has? IOW, what was the efficacy of their traditional martial arts training? OR--Were they just good kickboxers who took TMA lessons and got belts in a TMA style? TWO, were the early UFC matches where the Gracies had all this stupendous success, entirely legitimate or was there a good dose of promotion?
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In a sense, my second question (TWO) points to your first sentence where you describe the Octagon as an artificial environment. I bring one aspect of that artificiality which then affects any conclusions drawn from MMA stats.
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On question ONE, the idea is to bring in Tony D's perspective in his Judo post, and one that has been raised in other T.'s. In terms of labeling early UFC fighters (or any MMA competitor claiming to be TMA based), how much, to what degree had their training been determined by largely following conventional training for competition in that style, as opposed to the training presented across the entire spectrum of that TMA style's curriculum?
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If so-called TMA practitioners are neglecting a certain aspect of the curriculum as Tony D. described for Judo, then this calls into question the potency of Gracie BJJ, should Gracie BJJ actually go against those competently training the TMA curriculum (by Tony D., Judo) as it was proposed & designed by the originating Masters. A quality of training issue....