OK... you want to identify the "future criminals." How are you going to do that? What mechanism are you going to use?
Sadly, quite a few states do it by literacy rates in the early grades - why spend money on education when you can build more prisons? (for those who can't tell, there's a great deal of sarcasm in this statement)
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]In many states, the prison systems look at the number of students not reading on grade level in grades two, three, or four to determine the number of prison cells to build ten years hence (Lawmakers Move to Improve Literacy, 2001). The fact that the prison system can use this prediction formula with great accuracy should make us all cringe, but the critical point is that if businesses can use educational data for predictions, so can educators.[/FONT]
Also here:
Dr. Grover (Russ) Whitehurst: Yes. Again, the predictability of reading for life success is so strong, that if you look at the proportion of middle schoolers who are not at the basic level, who are really behind in reading, it is a very strong predictor of problems with the law and the need for jails down the line.
Literacy for societies, literacy for states, literacy for individuals is a powerful determinate of success. The opposite of success is failure and clearly, being in jail is a sign of failure.
People who dont read well have trouble earning a living. It becomes attractive to, in some cases the only alternative in terms of gaining funds, to violate the law and steal, to do things that get you in trouble. Few options in some cases other than to pursue that life. Of course reading opens doors.
And here:
Many states, including Indiana and California, predict the number of prison cells that will be needed in 10 to 12 years by looking at the reading scores of third-grade students today.
And here:
If you want to know how many prison cells to build, look at the number of third graders who cant read. Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA)
I could keep going... but I think I'm beating a dead horse. My point is that extending the educational process is not going to help the majority of failing students - changing how the education system helps them will do that. And then, of course, there are so many factors that affect success in school that have nothing whatsoever to do with the school that it becomes a chicken-and-egg question: does reading difficulty predict future criminal activity, or does criminal activity stem from the inability to read, and thus to get a job requiring reading? Or is it a totally different issue? Simply because a correlation exists does not make the correlated items causal - likewise, predictive data is not absolute - it is merely predictive.
The problem, as I see it, is that American society has fallen into the trap of being reactive, rather than proactive - way too little is spent on prevention, and way too much is spent on punishment; reverse that, and it might actually work. But further education is not the only method of prevention - it is a piece of the prevention puzzle, but there are way too many non-educational influences to attempt to fix everything through the education system - which, as has been said, is doing way too many things it was never intended to do already.