Ender
Black Belt
Now this is interesting. Sure it's just a persective, but the possibilities are there...and this could change the whole situation.
Intelligence Digest
04 June 2004
The evacuation of Saudi Arabia
The steady exodus of expatriate workers from Saudi Arabia is set to gather pace in the coming weeks following the latest terrorist assault against foreigners in the Kingdom. ID assesses whether Al-Qaeda's long-standing strategy of destabilising the increasingly embattled House of Saud stands any real prospect of success.
Although the ousting of the Saudi royals has been predicted for some years the monarchy in the desert Kingdom has managed to survive thanks to support from the USA and its own policy of buying off or otherwise silencing its domestic opponents. However, with the US Department of State now urging its citizens to leave and the British Foreign Office issuing warnings to its own expatriates, the steady outflow of skilled Western workers is almost certain to gather pace - raising serious questions about the impact of an exodus of foreign technicians on the country's oil industry.
Of course, that is precisely the reaction that those who planned the attacks in Khobar on Sunday which left 22 dead are hoping. Of equal concern is the escape of three of the assailants amid mounting allegations by survivors that a deal was done between the militants and the Saudi security forces in return for the release of the remaining 41 hostages.
For some experienced Middle East analysts, there are significant parallels between the current situation in Saudi Arabia and the final months of the Shah of Iran before his flight into exile, followed by the Islamic revolution which swept the ayatollahs into power (and cost the USA one of its key regional allies). As one foreign policy veteran told ID: "The collapse of authority tends to be the end result of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Once there is the perception that the old regime is doomed, it is usually a matter of time before it actually collapses. We saw precisely this sequence of events in Iran in 1979."
There is mounting concern among Western intelligence agencies that Al-Qaeda's next move will be to target the Kingdom's oil infrastructure in order to disrupt production. Any incident which threatens to reduce Saudi exports is almost certain to fuel the escalating price of oil - which reached a 21-year high at the end of May (although in real terms, this is still lower than the peaks reached during the 1973 oil crisis).
Intelligence Digest
04 June 2004
The evacuation of Saudi Arabia
The steady exodus of expatriate workers from Saudi Arabia is set to gather pace in the coming weeks following the latest terrorist assault against foreigners in the Kingdom. ID assesses whether Al-Qaeda's long-standing strategy of destabilising the increasingly embattled House of Saud stands any real prospect of success.
Although the ousting of the Saudi royals has been predicted for some years the monarchy in the desert Kingdom has managed to survive thanks to support from the USA and its own policy of buying off or otherwise silencing its domestic opponents. However, with the US Department of State now urging its citizens to leave and the British Foreign Office issuing warnings to its own expatriates, the steady outflow of skilled Western workers is almost certain to gather pace - raising serious questions about the impact of an exodus of foreign technicians on the country's oil industry.
Of course, that is precisely the reaction that those who planned the attacks in Khobar on Sunday which left 22 dead are hoping. Of equal concern is the escape of three of the assailants amid mounting allegations by survivors that a deal was done between the militants and the Saudi security forces in return for the release of the remaining 41 hostages.
For some experienced Middle East analysts, there are significant parallels between the current situation in Saudi Arabia and the final months of the Shah of Iran before his flight into exile, followed by the Islamic revolution which swept the ayatollahs into power (and cost the USA one of its key regional allies). As one foreign policy veteran told ID: "The collapse of authority tends to be the end result of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Once there is the perception that the old regime is doomed, it is usually a matter of time before it actually collapses. We saw precisely this sequence of events in Iran in 1979."
There is mounting concern among Western intelligence agencies that Al-Qaeda's next move will be to target the Kingdom's oil infrastructure in order to disrupt production. Any incident which threatens to reduce Saudi exports is almost certain to fuel the escalating price of oil - which reached a 21-year high at the end of May (although in real terms, this is still lower than the peaks reached during the 1973 oil crisis).
