Target Iran

[meth18au]

I read a book just over a year ago titled "Target Iran: The Truth About the White Houses Plans for Regime Change". It was written by Scott Ritter, an ex-UN weapons inspector whom was involved in the hunt for WMD leading up to the Iraq war.

Here is a brief book description copy and pasted straight from Amazon:

"In the run-up to the invasion of Iraq, Scott Ritter's War on Iraq was embraced by the antiwar movement in America even though his claims that Iraq had been effectively disarmed were ignored by both the Bush administration and the mainstream media. In the wake of the debacle, Ritter has been vindicated. Now Ritter, a former United Nations weapons inspector, has set his sights on the White House's hyping of Iran's alleged nuclear weapons program. In Target Iran he once again sets the record straight.

This book offers Ritter's “national intelligence assessment” of the Iranian imbroglio. He examines the Bush administration's regime-change policy and the potential of Iran to threaten U.S. national security interests. The author also considers how the country is seen by other interested parties, including the United Kingdom (Tony Blair may once again be called upon by Bush to provide an international “cover” in any confrontation), Israel (the Israelis view Iran as their number one threat today), and the International Atomic Energy Agency (responsible for inspecting the alleged nuclear program)."


Anyways, I found the book an interesting read. One thing that rings true, is that this sort of rhetoric around possible regime change in Iran is still lingering as of today. It has been many years now since it first started. I know Ritter's views from reading the book, and have read many different points of views on this subject. I am curious though, as to what people's views are regarding the Iranian regime? Do they pose a credible threat to the US, and to world security? Is a conflict inevitable (what sort?), and would it be justified? What would the likely outcome and consequences be for the whole world? If conflict can be avoided, how can this situation be dealt with appropriately?

 

[meth18au]

No takers?

I was hoping for some educated insight from some of the people on this site!!! Oh well....

 

[CoryKS]

I dunno, I get the feeling that the current administration is still waiting for the Iranian counterrevolution that's been just around the corner for about, oh, fifteen years now.

 

[tellner]

Inevitable? No, but it's likely. The smart money is sometime in the middle of 2008, after the nominations. The Commander Guy (his own self-bestowed title) will probably have evidence that the Iranians are behind the insurgency, in league with Al Qaeda, about to manufacture nuclear weapons, responsible for the latest terrorist outrage, and slipping across the border to fight American troops.

The Decider will use the recent "non-binding" resolution that the Revolutionary Guards are a terrorist organization to go after them without the nicety of a declaration of war. His handlers will emphasize that they took over the US Embassy in 1979.

The event will be accompanied by stricter security regulations as we the few remaining civil rights we once enjoyed are sacrificed so that The Terrorists who hate our freedoms don't take them away. Oil will hit $120/barrel.

The military analysts all over the world have looked at the threadbare state our armed forces have been ground down to and say "Iran? You and what Army?" The head of the spear - the 101st and 82nd Airborne and 75th Rangers - are walking police beats in Baghdad. The Pentagon has already said that fewer than 1/4 of brigades are combat-ready or even remotely fully manned and equipped. So it will have to be the Air Force and Navy. Buy stock in whatever companies make cruise missiles.

Most of whatever we're after will be buried deep under the rock. Expect a lot of talk about how the bunker busting "micro-nukes" or "surgical nukes" don't produce that much fallout, endanger too many innocents and are necessary to protect us from whatever grave threat has been manufactured.

The Iranian government is not popular with the Iranian people although I daresay President Ahmedinajad enjoys higher approval ratings with his people than George W. Bush does with his. But this attack will make cause the Persians to rally around him and ensure that the hardliners will be in power for another two generations.

The moderate (sane) Republicans have mostly been purged from the Party. The Democrats will do their usual imitation of doormats. Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid will declare that impeachment is "off the table". Again. Senator Clinton will do her usual shtick and vote with the Republicans while insisting that it doesn't mean what you think it does. The Democratic wing of the Democratic Party will, once again, be silenced by the Republican majority within the DLC which will go along with whatever the Administration wants and to hell with what 3/4 of the country is demanding. To do otherwise would be to "appear soft on security."

When the dust settles we will be bogged down even further. Our last allies will be rushing to move away from us. China will cement it's place as the world's new power. The rest of the world will stop lending Shrubus Minimus the money to rattle his saber which will leave us completely screwed.

There's a good chance that he'll invoke the powers he granted himself and officially take Supreme Executive Power. In any case the country will be in the middle of a messy destructive war that it can't afford and can't win. He will present this steaming turd to his successor with his usual smirk and "You gunna stay the course, or er ya gunna cut and run? Heh heh." He will retire to his 100,000 acre compound in Paraguay when, as has been the one constant in his career, he has screwed things up beyond the point of repair and decides his current job just isn't fun anymore.

 

[meth18au]

Thanks for the reply Mr Tellner!!! A well thought out and very interesting reply!!! I agree with you on war being a likely scenario, however not totally inevitable outcome. I admittedly don't know a whole lot about the domestic politics internal to your country (although your post did give me a few interesting insights)- however from my readings it seems there are many people withing the current administration that want to convert key middle eastern countries into US compliant states.

It seems as though US foreign policy (pertaining to the Middle East) is aimed at gaining some sort of political control over the region. I was reading an interview once, and it referred to Lord Cuzon whom was British Foreign Secretary around WW1 referring to Arab governments being "buffer states"- basically a weak government reliant on the Imperial British government of the time. It strikes me as a similar sort of scenario with Iraq, and in the desire for change to occur within Iran.

I didn't realize the extent that the US military is stretched. I know you do have operations all over the world, basically on an unprecedented level. Surely any government in power must realize there are limitations- resource is required to sustain such efforts!! The book that I referred to in the original post basically gave a similar scenario to you, that the US military is overly stretched and a war in Iran could be disastrous to the US economy and military. I just find it hard to swallow that any government would be willing to drain every last resource out of a country (economically, militarily and socially) to further an agenda (against the will of the populace)?!?!?! It's crazy...

However I may have to take your tip and start searching for stocks in companies that produce cruise missiles. Especially those with contracts to the US military!!! I'll send you a some of the profits to say thankyou when I'm a rich man LOL

It's amazing that Mr Bush can have such low approval ratings in comparison to Ahmadinejad. It says a lot for the decisions he has made since being in power. I always view America as a sort of beacon for democracy, and like to think of Australia (and the West in general) as helping to tow the line for democracy (am I just idealistic?). I look at other countries with less rights than us, and appreciate the sort of system I have grown up in. Every system has its positives and negatives- but I am allowed general freedoms that people in North Korea (as an example- amongst many others) are not allowed. But like you said

The Democratic wing of the Democratic Party will, once again, be silenced by the Republican majority within the DLC which will go along with whatever the Administration wants and to hell with what 3/4 of the country is demanding."

The same is beginning to happen in Australia in some cases. I believe that a democracy allows a "representative" to be elected on behalf of the populace. What gives them the right to use their power as they see fit against the will of the people that they are representing? Is democracy changing into an abomination and becoming something else?

China as world power....I can see it. Russia up there too maybe? Scary thoughts? I feel safe with the US as our protector, it's all I've known in my 24 years...

What is the Supreme Executive Power? And I can't believe 100, 000 acre's to cut and run to? I don't even have 1 acre to run to! LOL

 

[jazkiljok]

on this topic, you might find this article interesting.

http://www.slate.com/id/2176122/fr/flyout

 

[meth18au]

Thanks for the link champ. I'll go have a read now!

 

[Empty Hands]

I'm not directly sure if a war is afoot, but it seems likely. One thing is for sure, there must be a motive behind the high level of saber rattling that has been coming from Washington the last year or two (i.e. the WWIII remark). Preparing the way for something violent does seem sadly likely.

 

[meth18au]

It is a scary sort of rhetoric isn't it? WW3....Let's just hope things never get that bad in the world again. I think warfare is and will take on a totally different form to the last world war. It's this advanced weaponry and nuclear warfare that potentially will make any upcoming major conflict a dirty, dirty game....

 

[Phoenix44]

I just find it hard to swallow that any government would be willing to drain every last resource out of a country (economically, militarily and socially) to further an agenda (against the will of the populace)?!?!?!

The people in power in our country now, the so-called neocons, HATE government. They feel that if multi-national corporations can rule, then who needs democracy? So they want to drain every last resource, basically transferring money from the public sector to big business, making it impossible for the government to accomplish anything. That way they can say, "See? We told you government doesn't work." Actually, the only government entities they actually do believe in are the army and police--in other words, entities that protect their money. (And in fact, they're increasingly using private armies, too, mercenaries like Blackwater)

I unfortunately find tellner's scenario totally plausible. Seymour Hirsch, one of the few remaining investigative journalists, has been predicting an attack against Iran for more than a year. And Bush certainly seems to be cranking up the rhetoric, much like he did in the run-up to the Iraq invasion. It's particularly infuriating that Dems like Senator Clinton, who swore she'd never again vote to go to war on "intelligence that turns out to be faulty" voted on a resolution that, once again, allows Bush to start a war without a declaration by Congress.

 

[CoryKS]

Interesting, if grim, article by Spengler: When you can't deal with the devil. He seems to think conflict with Iran would result in terrible consequences but would ultimately be worth it.

 

[tellner]

As they say "You and what Army?" Our military is already stretched past thin. The Pentagon is admitting that it will take at least a decade and enormous infusions of cash which we can not afford to get it back. The Reserves and Guard are tapped out. Putin has declared that an attack on Iran is an attack on Russia. China will just cut off the money tap. The rest of our allies will shake their heads and turn away. The price of oil will hit $150/barrel. We will continue radicalizing the Middle East and drive the really pretty moderate Iranians into the hands of Iwannajihad.

The neocons are all ready with their "Shock and Awe" and "Regime Change". It didn't work last time. It won't work this time. Air and naval power (which are all we have left) aren't going to win that war unless we use nuclear weapons wholesale. And if that happens a hell of a lot of people will demand that Cheney, Bush, Rice, the JCS and anyone else connected with the Charlie Foxtrot be handed over to the International Court of Justice. That's assuming they don't convene a less formal court, Judge Lynch presiding.

If you think the Shiite "keep your heads down, wait and see, the Americans are delivering Iraq to us" strategy will hold you need to stop smoking that Mexican rope. They'll come after us with a real attitude.

Iran is not a rich country, but it's definitely not Iraq. Iraq had been crushed under a decade of murderous sanctions. It didn't have anything resembling an economy. Iran has a military. It has a national identity. It has infrastructure. It has a relatively homogenous population with a strong ancient national identity. We might be able to kill a lot of people and break a lot of stuff, but winning the war? Not even close. The JCS and all the experts said we would have needed close to half a million to pacify Iraq. And that's assuming we hadn't stepped on our collective member and emptied our magazine into our foot after the first phase of the war. Doing the same thing to Iran would take total mobilization if even that would work. It would trash our economy, especially since the Chinese bankers would just stop lending to us.

It's stupid. It's self-destructive. And if anyone still cares about things like that it's illegal and wrong. But having screwed the pooch on everything else they've done the Bush Administration has to do something. So they've decided on endless unwinnable wars and classic all 14 points textbook fascism.

 

[Makalakumu]

Yeah, but invading Iran, crashing the US into a ******** of despair, and bankrupting this nation, would certainly help get the North American Union accomplished...

Canada would go down with the ship and we'd all be at the level of Mexico.

Have you seen an Amero? You are going to.

 

[tellner]

Yeah, but invading Iran, crashing the US into a ******** of despair, and bankrupting this nation, would certainly help get the North American Union accomplished...

Canada would go down with the ship and we'd all be at the level of Mexico.

Have you seen an Amero? You are going to.

Indeed. Have you ever seen the lamp posts of Pennsylvania Avenue festooned with government officials, PNAC neocons and Greedy Old Plutocrats? You just might...

 

[Makalakumu]

Do the planners care about the prosperity of the American people or the sovereignty of this country? Look at the situation we are in now? Look at what is planned for this place? Check out the North American Union and then come back and tell me that the planners would give a damn what would happen to America if invaded Iran.

Masters of War

This some says a lot about what the plutocratic, kleptocratic, nepotistic rulers of this country think.

If they think that invading Iran will further what ever agenda they possess, they will do it.

We just can't analyze this with the rationale that you and I would use.

 

[grydth]

Indeed. Have you ever seen the lamp posts of Pennsylvania Avenue festooned with government officials, PNAC neocons and Greedy Old Plutocrats? You just might...

I wouldn't keep blowing this horn if I were you. Both the French and Russian Revolutions provide graphic and numerous examples of how today's lynchers are on the scaffold themselves tomorrow. Once this type of thing gets started, there's a lot of lamp post room to go round.

I've feared a civil war's coming for some time now.... but that's a fear and not a wish and not a veiled exhortation.

 

[tellner]

It's not something I want to happen. It's more something I dread we may not be able to avoid. The Revolution will be televised, and it will have none of the high ideals of the the first one. Soldiers fighting Blackwater. Cops shooting deputies. People fracturing along bizarre unpredictable lines. The prominent public face of power would just be the first to be hanged. I don't know if we'd have the Terror that accompanied the French Revolution, but it's where the smart money would bet.

If it happens I and mine are screwed. Racially mixed, Jewish, Sufi Muslim, left of center. No matter who's shooting we'll be targets unless we're sent off to the Camps early and get zipped properly and officially.

 

[grydth]

It's not something I want to happen. It's more something I dread we may not be able to avoid. The Revolution will be televised, and it will have none of the high ideals of the the first one. Soldiers fighting Blackwater. Cops shooting deputies. People fracturing along bizarre unpredictable lines. The prominent public face of power would just be the first to be hanged. I don't know if we'd have the Terror that accompanied the French Revolution, but it's where the smart money would bet.

If it happens I and mine are screwed. Racially mixed, Jewish, Sufi Muslim, left of center. No matter who's shooting we'll be targets unless we're sent off to the Camps early and get zipped properly and officially.

Imagine that - two guys on opposite coasts and opposite ends of the spectrum afraid of exactly the same thing! My family has the groups yours is missing, so we'd be goners, too. Worth a thread itself!

I guess the thread question, though, is whether some kind of campaign against Iran would be what brings our own house of cards down. The only possible way, given the damage as you've outlined from Iraq, would be a robot war eerily similar to the Terminator movies. It would be air/sea assets from long range smart weapons down to raptor drones. We couldn't invade and conquer... but that would also inhibit Iran's ability to cause us casualties to sap any support for the war. The aim would have to be to eliminate the WMD/terror threat by attacks on military bases/WMD centers/research/ government centers. Their crazies would never give up, so soon we'd be destroying power plants, dropping bridges, cratering roads and runways.

The world would hate us, our guys in Iraq and elsewhere would be attacked relentlessly - not to mention any terror cells they've snuck in to the USA, and our cities would erupt.

Guess it all comes down to : How much of a threat is Allmadjihad + company? Is there any other way out short of war? Could we survive another Bush 'victory'?

 

[tellner]

He's not a nice person. And he's crazier than a pet squirrel in a lot of the same ways that Bush is - the same "I am the Chosen Ones" apocalyptic can't-be-wrong dynamic is at work in a person who's basically under qualified for the job and not terribly popular. Like Bush, he would have been a footnote in history if it hadn't been for an enemy to rally the people around.

You ask a good question. How much of a problem is Iran? What can and would they like to do?

The Persians and the Arabs haven't gotten along since the time of, oh, Darius. The Battle of Karbala wasn't the first or the defining moment. They make the Arabian Peninsula nervous. In fact, you could say that what we've accomplished with Operation Iraqi Liberation is to move the battle lines back from the Iran-Iraq border to halfway into Iraq. In other words, the Arabs have managed to lose half a country thanks to our intervention.

If Iran had nuclear capability it would depend a lot on who was in power. If it were Ahmadinejad he might well show it or use it. I wouldn't want to be in Jerusalem or Riyadh. Israel is tiny, and a very small number of nuclear weapons could utterly destroy the country. The populated parts of Saudi Arabia are thin and skimpy. Same thing. Unfortunately, Iran is large and has a big population. Mutual Assured Destruction wouldn't apply because Israel couldn't destroy Persia except possibly through a massive first strike. I don't think any leader of a Muslim country no matter how crazed would nuke Mecca and Medina.

Would he use it to attack the United States? I really don't think so. He's got many execrable character traits. Being stupid isn't one of them. Any such attack would invite massive strategic retaliation. By which I mean the unleashing of the Big Hammer onto everything larger than a village. A conventional or nuclear American first strike on Iran would invite all sorts of bad consequences from the Russians and Chinese. But if Iran tossed out the first neutron Moscow and Beijing would probably quote Kojak and say "Who loves ya baby? Who ya gonna call?"

If the President were Khatami things would be much different. Iran's stature and power in the Middle East would certainly grow. Iran definitely wants to be a big regional power. But it wouldn't be nearly as destabilizing as, oh, a completely random country like Pakistan, the country whose military made the Taliban, with thermonuclear weapons.

The PNACstic war drum is having one measurable effect. It's rallying the Iranians behind a leader whom they would otherwise be looking forward to replacing. There's a large, powerful out of control enemy on the borders. It has already invaded and occupied the countries to the East and West. It has bases in or military agreements with all of the other neighbors. Its leaders seem to have no qualms about utterly destroying countries which haven't attacked them and unleashing sectarian civil war. They seem to like the idea of carving up countries not that different from yours into patchwork Patheticstans. And now they're warning your country to watch out or unspecified bad things will happen.

Do you think you'd want the biggest damned bomb you could get your hands on? Would you overthrow your government like the invaders want you to? Or put a flag pin on your lapel and Support the Troops and the President at least until the barbarians are no long at the gates?

I certainly think there are possibilities other than all out war. And we'd better damned well try them. It's a war that we'll lose even if we win. We'd be idiots to repeat the same failed policy when we're poorer, tireder and up against a worse enemy with less international support behind us. But that doesn't seem to have stopped us so far.

 

[tellner]

Imagine that - two guys on opposite coasts and opposite ends of the spectrum afraid of exactly the same thing! My family has the groups yours is missing, so we'd be goners, too. Worth a thread itself!

Well damn. Let's see what we can do. If Tiel and I manage to spawn our offspring should get together. We'd produce the legendary Typical Human Beings. They'd be heterozygous for everything. Our genetically superior dynasty could Rule the World!