Royce Gracie vs. Matt Hughes - who will win?

[MJS]

MJS - the rules, as I said before, in the first few UFC's were anything goes. And it's been a long time since Royce fought with no time limits. That kind of thing doesn't even really exist anymore, not for the big fights anyway. It's no good for TV. I see your other points, though.

Yes, I realize that the early rules were very different from what they are today. However, the fact remains that its known that there have been 'special rules' put into place for his fights. As I said, I have not followed Royce since his UFC days. I would be interested in knowing if there are certain rules in place for this fight.

Mike

 

[sgtmac_46]

Are you ready for my prediction folks? Here it goes. I predict a decision. I think Gracie will tie it up early, and keep it tied up as long as possible.

Matt is powerful, and Royce's response to power has been, traditionally, to tie it up on the ground until they wear out. With the time-limit format, however, he's certainly not going to have time to wear Matt out. I predict a lot of tie up time on the mat, with restarts, resulting in a move back to the clinch, and further tie ups.

Ultimately, Matt, being more active and aggressive, will win on a decision.

Be that as it may, I don't see Matt knocking him out or tapping him out. He definitely won't be getting his back like he did with Frank Trigg. Royce is too good of a technician.

Voiding a quick lucky knock out, or a mistake on the ground by Matt, this fight is going the distance, and will end up with Matt winning a decision based on more activity. The format is not to Royce's advantage.....especially against a physical specimen like Matt.

At any rate, i'm excited to see this. It really brings the UFC full circle. Truly old school versus the young lion. I guess we get to see how much the UFC has 'evolved'.

That's my $.02 worth.

 

[Jagermeister]

Yes, I realize that the early rules were very different from what they are today. However, the fact remains that its known that there have been 'special rules' put into place for his fights. As I said, I have not followed Royce since his UFC days. I would be interested in knowing if there are certain rules in place for this fight.

Sorry, you're not convincing me. I need you to list these "special rules" for me to really hear your argument. And I've already heard the time rules from Marginal.

The commotion now is due to the fact that he will only fight if rules that HE agrees to are in effect.

The same can be said for every fighter, otherwise there is no fight. You see the faulty logic here? How can anyone ever fight unless they agree to the rules?

I think that a lot of people are under the impression that Royce has been on vacation since his early days in UFC, like he's been avoiding fights for these reasons regarding these rules, and that he's just afraid to lose. Go to Sherdog and check his stats. He's been busy in the past 5 years, and he's fought in various organizations.

And just a note, I'm not trying to be a jerk or overly argumentative here, it's just that I appreciate facts a lot more than generalizations that I can't reference anywhere.

 

[Kenpo_man]

are you guys all smokin' crack? what's all this crap about "matt is way more powerful"...

blah, blah, blah! lay off the dope.

experience and technique will overcome power anyday! i thought you guys knew that. i've only seen that kind of thing posted on this forum a zillion times.

i got $10 that says Royce wipes the floor with him. any takers?

I think you've lost it. I respect Gracie and I believe he has a CHANCE but wiping the the floor with Hughs, no bloody way. Hughs has probably got this one on power and aggressiveness. If anyone can stay on top of a Gracie and not get submitted it's Matt. Royce IS a sneaky and masterful technician though . . . he shouldn't be completely disregarded.


Wouldn't it be funny if Matt submitted him . . .:rofl:

 

[MJS]

Sorry, you're not convincing me. I need you to list these "special rules" for me to really hear your argument. And I've already heard the time rules from Marginal.

Dude, a little bit of reasearch goes a long way. I shouldnt have to do a search for you, but here are a few things. The interent is a great place, if you know where to look and what to look for.

http://www.asylumnation.com/asylum/_r/showthread/threadid_24822

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royce_Gracie

The Gracie family took great umbrage over the incident, feeling that they had been cheated by Pride. Compelled to set the record straight, Royce Gracie returned to the sport of mixed martial arts in 2000 and entered the 16-Man Pride Grand Prix with dominant heavyweights Mark Coleman, Mark Kerr, and Igor Vovchanchyn. However, it could be argued that Royce's main intention in entering the tournament was not winning the Grand Prix crown but rather doing battle with the Gracie family's new nemesis, Kazushi Sakuraba. In fact, a special set of rules were requested by the Gracies in advance for the possible Sakuraba-Royce match, which included no referee stoppages and no time-limits, the fight ending only in the event of a submission or knock-out.

The same can be said for every fighter, otherwise there is no fight. You see the faulty logic here? How can anyone ever fight unless they agree to the rules?

Dude, its a proven fact that its going to be easier for Royce with rules in place. Read Sgt. Macs post. This is the game that Royce plays...tie the person up, go to the ground, and keep it tied for as long as possible. If there is a time limit in effect, it takes away from the game that Royce plays.

I think that a lot of people are under the impression that Royce has been on vacation since his early days in UFC, like he's been avoiding fights for these reasons regarding these rules, and that he's just afraid to lose. Go to Sherdog and check his stats. He's been busy in the past 5 years, and he's fought in various organizations.

I'm not disputing that. Just because he's been fighting, does not mean that there have not been special rules in place.

Mike

 

[MJS]

Lets analyze these rules here:

- Both men will wear a 'Gi'

The gi is a huge advantage for Royce. If he is wearing a gi, it allows him more tools, such as using his gi to aid in a choke. It also allows him to use his opponents gi to aid in a choke.

- No strikes to the head are allowed ever

A MMA match with no strikes to the face??:idunno:

- At least one fighter has to be standing for striking

:idunno:

- When both fighters are on the ground it becomes a submissions only fight,
with no points or advantages

So, no ground and pound?? Many fights have been won by this method, but its not in effect here? Now, I'm in no way saying that I think a fighter should win just because he lays on his opp. in a more dominant position, but if the top guy is active, throwing strikes, etc., then sub. or not, he should win. This also tells me that he's not as good with strikes on the ground as compared to some of the other fighters we've seen.

- 2 x 10 minute rounds with no judges decision. In the event of no
submission or KO the fight will be a draw

See above. This in effect, does not tarnish his image as much if he gets a loss.

 

[Jagermeister]

Dude, a little bit of reasearch goes a long way. I shouldnt have to do a search for you, but here are a few things. The interent is a great place, if you know where to look and what to look for.

Dude. Is this not a place where we ask questions? Or should all questions be withheld and researched independently?

Having said that, thank you for actually providing some information. That was all I was asking for this whole time. For those of you following along, here are the rules, according to the copy of an email dated about a year and a half before the fight, of the '03 Royce-Yoshida fight.

[FONT=tahoma, verdana, arial, helvetica]

As previously reported by your intrepid columnist, the fight in under
special rules requested by Pride:

- Both men will wear a 'Gi'

- No strikes to the head are allowed ever

- At least one fighter has to be standing for striking

- When both fighters are on the ground it becomes a submissions only fight,
with no points or advantages

- 2 x 10 minute rounds with no judges decision. In the event of no
submission or KO the fight will be a draw

[/FONT]
I didn't see this fight. I assume the fight went off with these rules still intact. I'd like to add that Yoshida was a Judo guy, so I wouldn't be too quick to say that these are entirely rules that Royce wanted and Yoshida didn't. BJJ and Judo, each wearing a gi, each without strikes, would be more suited to rules like this. Still, I think it's a bunch of crap, and I think it would have been much better if normal Pride rules were in effect.

My opinion is that the abovementioned rules are stupid, but I'm not going to hate on them that much for wanting to have longer rounds and no referree stoppages. When you stop and consider it, that's a more realistic fighting situation. For example, instead of having to exercise technique to escape from a grappling expert, under these rules a fighter can be freed by the referree if the action slows down. And as for the time limits, I don't care either way. It's definitely more entertaining when there is referree stoppage (monotony like the Shamrock-Royce rematch of UFC 5 sucks), but I think it's less true to the "who's really the best" philosophy that these fights are seeking to stick to.

 

[celtic_crippler]

I predict Matt will tire himself out pummeling Gracie and after 3 rounds Gracie, all bloody and battered, will slip an arm bar on the gassed out Matt. Kinda like what he did with Kimo.

Question: Just how effective is a martial art that's premise is to let your attacker tire themselves out by beating you down so that you can apply a submission?

 

[Jagermeister]

This is from BJJ.org and I have no idea when it was posted, but I think it's older.

MAG: They say the Octagon is no longer a very soft mat, but a much harder mat. Would the change in surface make a difference for you?

RG: It was a hard mat back then. It's plywood with one of those inch foam pads - the type they put under carpet. They put that over plywood. People make all kinds of excuses - Royce is not fighting because now it's a hard floor ... I'm not fighting because of the time limit and the rules. Now the fighters are playing against the time limit and against the judges. They don't fight against me.

MAG: The judges and time limit seem to be the main reason you're not fighting in the Octagon. Would you expand on the concerns you have with judges and time limits?

RG: If I [was to] drop you in the middle of the ocean and you look around and there is only water, most of the people - 99 percent - would drown on the first night. If I drop you in the ocean and fly away but tell you I'm coming back the next day to pick you up, you don't have to go anywhere, just float around the entire day. I'll come back and pick you up and you'll be there waiting for me. That's what the fighters are doing now. They know there is a time limit. If you put a two-hour time limit they will do the same thing like Shamrock and Severn did. And like what Shamrock did to me. In UFC IX, Shamrock didn't want to fight, Severn didn't want to fight. They both came in with the same mentality. Let's play for the draw, let's see who the judges are going to give it to. It was a very boring fight. Everybody was booing; very bad fight.

MAG: The UFC hasn't been the same since you have fought. Many people are upset that you're no longer fighting.

RG: If you put a two-hour time limit, they will still do the same thing today. They will stand around for two hours. You put three hours they will do the same. If you take the time limit out, they have to fight. Somebody has to win. There's no judges; you have to win. Change the mentality of the game. Now you have to come in to fight. Once you put a judge, you put a time limit. Like in boxing - the guy starts to lose, he starts to play defense. He wants to go the distance now, he wants to lose by points. So then he cans say the judges didn't like me. Instead come in and try to exchange and get knocked out. As soon as you put a time limit and judges, you change the entire mentality of the fighting. I'm against that.

The bold is mine. I just wanted to highlight the main points for the impatient types.

 

[MJS]

Dude. Is this not a place where we ask questions? Or should all questions be withheld and researched independently?

Yes, this is a wonderful place to ask questions. However, if answers to questions are not being given or if the answers do not meet ones expectations, I would think one would take that time to then seek out the info. on their own.

Having said that, thank you for actually providing some information. That was all I was asking for this whole time. For those of you following along, here are the rules, according to the copy of an email dated about a year and a half before the fight, of the '03 Royce-Yoshida fight.

You're welcome.

My opinion is that the abovementioned rules are stupid, but I'm not going to hate on them that much for wanting to have longer rounds and no referree stoppages. When you stop and consider it, that's a more realistic fighting situation. For example, instead of having to exercise technique to escape from a grappling expert, under these rules a fighter can be freed by the referree if the action slows down. And as for the time limits, I don't care either way. It's definitely more entertaining when there is referree stoppage (monotony like the Shamrock-Royce rematch of UFC 5 sucks), but I think it's less true to the "who's really the best" philosophy that these fights are seeking to stick to.

Yes, many fights that were close to a submission, were often 'saved by the bell' giving the person who was close to getting subd. a 2nd chance. My question is, why is it taking so long to submit? Unless the people are equally matched to perfection, a submission should come alot sooner. I can see good technique without having to sit and watch the BJJ fighter 'school' or 'play' with the other guy for 30min. I see what you're saying about technique, but if the technique is that good, wouldn't you think that an end would come sooner? I'm guessing that the problem is this: in the beginning, it was style vs style. Everybody was a one dimensional fighter. Over time, people began to see that they needed to be more well rounded to be more successful. Royce seems to still be in that one dimensional mode, compared to people who are skilled grappling and striking. This leads me to believe that this is the reason why he may request changes to the fight. He is not looking to trade punches, but instead work strictly submission.

Going off of your other post, I found this interview on Bjj.org and thought it was interesting.

http://bjj.org/interviews/royce-1997.html

This sort of goes back to the whole strength vs. size debate. Again, IMO, that should not be the sole deciding factor, but instead, who has the better technique.

 

[Jagermeister]

Royce seems to still be in that one dimensional mode, compared to people who are skilled grappling and striking. This leads me to believe that this is the reason why he may request changes to the fight. He is not looking to trade punches, but instead work strictly submission.

Rumor has it that Royce has been training heavily in boxing in the past few years. Celebrity makeover maybe?

 

[FearlessFreep]

Question: Just how effective is a martial art that's premise is to let your attacker tire themselves out by beating you down so that you can apply a submission?

*THAT*.....is a very interesing question : )

 

[sgtmac_46]

I predict Matt will tire himself out pummeling Gracie and after 3 rounds Gracie, all bloody and battered, will slip an arm bar on the gassed out Matt. Kinda like what he did with Kimo.

Question: Just how effective is a martial art that's premise is to let your attacker tire themselves out by beating you down so that you can apply a submission?

A distinct possibility. Whatever happens, I think it's going all the way. I don't think Matt's submission skills are strong enough to submit Royce, but his wrestling is good enough to keep Royce from being able to submit him quickly, not to mention Matt's strength advantage.

Keep one thing in mind when talking about Royce, however, it's not like Matt's strength is going to be overwhelming. Royce spent the early days winning when there weren't any weight classes. He's used to giving up HUGE weight differences. Matt is extremely strong, for his size. But there's no way he can physically dominate like a Kimo or a Dan Severn, who are both nearly 100 pounds heavier. Neither of them were able to smother Royce with their strength, so I don't expect a quick victory for Matt. Size does matter, or they wouldn't have instituted weight classes.

The format is against Royce, however. He doesn't have all the time in the world. He has a limited time, and I don't think that's going to be enough to wear Matt down and make Matt make a mistake.

Matt will stay in a dominant position, and be more active. Royce will hang on and try to do just what you outline.

Assuming Matt doesn't knock Royce out (which I doubt) , and Royce doesn't slip an armlock (which is possible) , this is going to a decision for Matt. :asian:

 

[MJS]

Size does matter, or they wouldn't have instituted weight classes.

I believe this, in addition to all of the other rules that were put into place, was due to the political heat as well as to conform to the Athletic Comm. rules. The UFC today has more of a boxing rule feeling to it.

Mike

 

[Muay Thai Knee]

I don't think strength and power are necessarily the things that Gracie needs to worry about. He did beat that massive sumo guy with an armbar.

Now admittedley I don't know the rules for that particular bout. But, when Gracie loses it is generally to guys who are very technical. Stand up strikers normally don't get a look in.

As for Hughes against BJJ guys. He has lost to BJ Penn and IMO fluked his first win against Newton. He was choked out and dropped Newton knocking him out. As he gets up you can see that Matt Hughes is just coming to.

The 2nd fight Huges completley owned Newton I admit.

This is either gonna be two guys "hugging" on the floor or a technical masterclass. I seriously hope the latter.

 

[Maltair]

Rumor has it that Royce has been training heavily in boxing in the past few years. Celebrity makeover maybe?

If thats the case, he really could come out swinging and suprise Matt, and with Gracie being able to see Matts current style (on tv) while Matt not having that advantage. Gracie really could suprise everybody. Avoid the take downs, keep it up for awhile, then POW, double leg take down into a submission. Gracie wins!

 

[bobster_ice]

duh!!! matt is obviously gonna win.

 

[Marginal]

So, no ground and pound?? Many fights have been won by this method, but its not in effect here? Now, I'm in no way saying that I think a fighter should win just because he lays on his opp. in a more dominant position, but if the top guy is active, throwing strikes, etc., then sub. or not, he should win. This also tells me that he's not as good with strikes on the ground as compared to some of the other fighters we've seen.



See above. This in effect, does not tarnish his image as much if he gets a loss.

IIRC, Royce lost, and it was roundly denounced as a work.

 

[tshadowchaser]

If the rules for this match are changed from what is the norm for the UFC today I personaly think that sucks. It gives an advandage to Gracie

 

[Marginal]

They actually can't. The UFC ruleset's highly regulated by state atheletic commissons. Most of the Gracie rule shifting has happened in Japan etc.