Honestly only a couple. A lot of my experience comes from former AIkido students who eventually end up in Bjj and comment about the previous practice, and/or rolling with Aikidoka who are trying to add some practicality to their Aikido practice. To be fair, I've only attended Aikikai schools, and I wasn't really impressed with what I saw. Far too much compliance, and having to do things "exactly right" in order for it to work properly.
Is it fair to say that the vast majority of Aikido schools are of the soft spiritual variety? After all, isn't this one of the head instructors for the Aikikai, the largest Aikido organization in the world, the school of the founder;
That above would appear to be an evolution of the no-ki stuff that Ueshiba was doing towards the end of his life. Is this something that Aikidoka actually believe? Do you honestly believe you can throw or lock someone down without touching them?
"Ten years to get good at the basics", or "ten years to become competent" is what I've heard various times both on this forum and other places. The number certainly varies, but in any case the argument is that it takes multiple years to be able to utilize Aikido effectively.
I'm getting 5-7 years from Aikido school sites such as this;
Frequently Asked Questions | North County Aikikai
According to them, it takes 800 hours to earn a black belt, and the average student trains 12-15 hours a month. That equals about 5-7 years of training, and that isn't the only Aikido location I've seen that states this.
Well, to be honest, Watanabe Sensei is kind of considered fringe at best. He's doing something he believes in, but it's not a martial aikido in the least. You also have to be careful just watching that because he is trying to demonstrate something. I've worked with a shihan who doesn't touch you, but you almost fall, because unlike Watanabe, he is throwing a fast, hard atemi at your face when you are unbalanced. You have a choice...get hit, or get out of the way, getting out of the way will make you almost fall (or fall, depending on your balance) and look unbalanced. However, no, you cannot throw someone without touching them.
I also don't believe, nor is there any widescale belief in Aikikai that I am aware of, that you can throw someone without touching them. I belong to USAF, which is under Aikikai. I've never seen the current Doshu or Waka Sensei espousing this.
Here's Tissier Shihan's thoughts on Watanabe Sensei.
Mario Lorenzo - In South America we can see that those who emphasize too much on the āKIā in their practice are not technically serious. Do you see this in other countries? And what do you think of Watanabe Senseiās āno touch Aikidoā?
Sensei Tissier : They are two different things. On the one hand people who talk about ki, and on the other the ones who practise aikido like Sensei Watanabe. He developed something in which he is especially interested in: it isnāt a ki work but one of anticipation, sensations, whether you like it or not, or whether it works or not. It works when you know the code, but martially it doesnāt work. Being in Japan I worked a lot with him, Watanabe wasnāt like this before. He is a physically solid practicant who wanted to develop something different. I think that if I were head of an examination table I wouldnāt take what he produces.
Now, people who talk and make constant reference on ki around the world are looking for something to justify their lack of technique. Because we all have ki, everything is ki (opening his arms), the problem with ki is its fluency. How does ki flow? When there is no block. When somebody is doing a technique and doesnāt handle it, this person doesnāt have an unblocked body. The objective of the technical aspect of the sport is to unlock every body part where there might exist a block. Someone who performs an exercise with stiff shoulders will not have a real ki flow.
Okay, well, I can see North County is California Aikido Association. Their testing requirements are different from USAF. We don't count hours, only days. For us, you can practice 4 hours or 1 hour in a day, and it counts the same. For USAF purposes, it takes 1040 practice days to reach 1st dan. Most students practice 2-3 days per week. Which equates to 7-10 years.
Here's the thing. THAT assumes that everyone never misses any classes (not reality) and tests as soon as they have the day requirements, which isn't realistic. We have a student now that has had the day requirements for his test for 3 years. However, he doesn't have the techniques down well enough to test to the next level. He misses quite a few classes, and then struggles still with some of the techniques.
I also know of a few people that have never tested. I know of at least one guy who has practiced Aikido for almost 20 years (and is pretty damn good) that has never taken a test and has already said he doesn't really ever feel the need to do so.
I also think you are conflating "getting good at the basics" and "competent". Competency requires context. I would say that the average Aikidoka should have a pretty good handle on the basics after 2, maybe 3 years. NOW, competency will vary depending on what context. Handling a drunk in a bar? Probably after 3-4 years, going up in a street fight against a skilled attacker?, probably closer to 6-8 years, getting in a fight with another really skilled martial artist? longer still. Without context, commenting on competency isn't really appropriate. I will say, after doing BJJ for a short while now, that ironically, BJJ and Aikido are the same. One is just on the ground. Principles and movements are very similar. I was told by a GJJ BB out east that had done Aikido for 6 years prior to switching to BJJ that BJJ was simply Aikido on the ground. There is actually more than a little truth to that.