flashlock said:
grappling occurs so often in fighting (as documented)
Pure hogwash. Please provide a source of information that is not characterized by selection bias (see below).
So, like so many others, you're basing your thoughts off of what others have found? Wouldn't it make more sense to research for yourself? Its impossible to know how everyone trains.
What would be even better is if individuals posting statistics actually understood what "selection bias" is....
There is a best-selling business book entitled, "From Good to Great" that is a great example of selection bias.
The author of this book took a bunch of then "successful firms" (GE, Xerox, etc.), looked at what they had in common, and then wrote a book saying, "If you do what they do and have X (e.g., a dedicated M&A division, international operations, skunks works, separated CEO-Chairman positions, and a thousand other things), you will be successful too!"
The problem is that he didn't "control for" all of the firms that also had X but FAILED. Moreover, he didn't "control for" all the firms that elected *NOT* to have X in the first place, but succeeded.
That means that there are two types of "selection bias." The former is known as "survival bias" because you are only looking at firms that have X *AND* are successful. The latter is known as "self-selection bias" because whether or not a firm chooses to engage in a behavior (i.e., X) affects the results if you are only looking at those who choose to engage in such behavior.
jks9199 said:
For example, if you decide to study real-world fights by looking at police officer use of force reports -- almost any of them will necessarily involve some form of grappling. Why? 'Cause a cop's goal is to contain, control and arrest the suspect.
Precisely. This is "self-selection bias"--cops will grab because they have to subdue the guy....
Similarly, it is not surprising that grunts will grab, and then report back to their superiors that the confrontation involved grappling. If a grunt has his weapon, he's going to shoot it. The only reason he is grappling is that is what he was trained to do.
I doubt highly that some dude in a robe in Iraq is going to willingly tackle a U.S. grunt wearing 100+ pounds of gear. So it is the grunts who are tackling people. Why? Because they are trained to do that....
flashlock said:
If you can't see how statistics of groups can guide an individual in choices, than I guess the conversation stops there.
If you can't see how statistics need to be interpreted in light of various caveats, then I guess the conversation stops there...and your statistics need to be flushed down the toilet.
Sorry, dude.
flashlock said:
You know, one major thing I have learned from this thread that I had no idea about was how interested in weapons ninjutsu practioners are.
Bujinkan Budo Taijutsu is, at base, at weapons art. Even a child will pick up something and want to use it as a weapon to give itself an advantage. Why not learn to use things around you to advantage? You've based your arguments on supposed "logic". It seems pretty logical to me to want to learn how to use things around you to advantage and would prefer to keep that advantage even in a "fake experiment" of 50 people in a crowded place or open field....
meta asethete said:
My real problem with this scenario is that I don't see how this came to be in the first place. Does the BJJ guy want my wallet? He can have it. $25 and a credit card that will be null and void as soon as I get to the phone. Big score.
Also -- why am I alone? Why is he? Why don't I have my keys and cell phone if I'm outdoors? If I scream, will people hear me nearby? Can I outrun this guy? If I offended this dude at a bar, then why am I stupid enough to get into beefs if I don't have friends to back me up? Why did I let this turn into a bar beef anyway?
Maybe these aren't typical "warrior" reactions, but they fulfill my objective of staying safe and thwart his objective of harming me. Voluntarily getting into a to-the-death fight with a BJJer is not a way to stay safe, so I wouldn't do it.
And if the guy ambushes me into a ground match, well, I'm at a disadvantage already. If I were to ambush him out of the blue with a knife or "dirty trick," he'd be pretty screwed too.
Wow! What a great post!!!
I don't know who you are, meta asethete, but you are a very wise creature..... Thanks for posting!
-ben