Bird Flu

[michaeledward]

I truely fail to see the logic of these attacks you are making. I wonder if someone other than you can point them out to me. You do not seem to be having much success in making your points. Since no one else besides me seems to see the logic behind your statements, I do not feel bad in saying I do not understand how you can maintain your position.

This is obvious.

I recommend these other sources.

The New York Times - Douglas Jehl - http://www.nytimes.com/2005/11/06/politics/06intel.ready.html

The Washington Post - Walter Pincus - http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/11/05/AR2005110501267_pf.html

Harpers Magazine. - http://harpers.org/RevisionThing.html

Each article discusses claims made earlier by the Bush Administration. Those claims are 'No Longer Operative', as they used to say.

It should not be difficult to draw a comparison between the former statements and current statements. And while there may be more legitimacy from the current statements, are they being honestly portrayed?

My position is they are not. In the articles I read, there is no mention, or only casual mention that the virus, that the virus can not transmit human to human.

 

[Don Roley]

My position is they are not. In the articles I read, there is no mention, or only casual mention that the virus, that the virus can not transmit human to human.

sgtmac46's statements about you seem more and more on the mark.

Have you missed all the comments about how easily flu mutates? Or how WHO, the CDC, various goverments, etc are all reacting with worry about how this could kill millions? Or the fact that the president has not done much to 'fear monger' other than announce new proposals?

And yet you still are trying to say this is all a big fraud to divert attention? You still want people to believe that because some things were not correct, that they must have been knowingly spread as lies and that this whole thing now is a lie?

I asked for someone other than you to explain it to me. Looking over this thread, it looks like everyone else is convinced that you are just on another crusade. No one else seems willing to lay out some sort of logic to what you write. Don't you think you should consider that?

Yes, you do sound like the guys wearing foil hats.

 

[michaeledward]

Have you missed all the comments about how easily flu mutates? Or how WHO, the CDC, various goverments, etc are all reacting with worry about how this could kill millions?

I heard a real interesting article last night about how the bird flu might affect Kentucky Fried Chicken. Did you know that Americans spend 50 billion dollars a year on chicken? I didn't. The article suggested that the economic impact of a bird flu could be a real issue in this industry, but we did learn that 'Mad Cow' had very little impact on the American consumer.

Do this article mention that the bird flu currently does not transmit human to human? Nope.

Two items:
First, that the article was broadcast is indicative of the Presidential Bully Pulpit. If the president did not speak about this subject, this story would never have been assembled.
Second, the article did not address the requirements for mutation and transmission. It truly may be that it was beyond the scope of the article. But, because of this, it is adding to the noise level, and the inaccuracies in understanding in the populace. Without the appropriate caveats, I submit citizens are becoming more aware of the threat, without good knowledge of how much of a threat it is; a Phantom Menace.

If I were Frank Perdue, I would be worried about the 82nd Airborne overtaking my farm.

 

[Don Roley]

First, that the article was broadcast is indicative of the Presidential Bully Pulpit. If the president did not speak about this subject, this story would never have been assembled.

My god! Have you missed the thousands of articles on bird flu up to now?

And you are trying to say that there has been no impact of mad cow on the American consumer. But they have buried a few people in the last few weeks for eating chiken and eggs. Who was the last to die from eating a cow?

The whole idea that this is a phantom menace is just a paranoid conspiracy. If the CDC, WHO, and various goverments are running scared about this, how the heck can you say that it is a presidential conspiracy? I have been worried about this thing for months! And I am not alone in that.

Honestly, get out the foil hats folks.

 

[Don Roley]

I heard a real interesting article last night about how the bird flu might affect Kentucky Fried Chicken. Did you know that Americans spend 50 billion dollars a year on chicken? I didn't. The article suggested that the economic impact of a bird flu could be a real issue in this industry, but we did learn that 'Mad Cow' had very little impact on the American consumer.

Do this article mention that the bird flu currently does not transmit human to human? Nope.

In the case of eating chicken from KFC, it does not have to. Don't you know that? People can die, and have died in the last few weeks from eating chicken. One died from eating an egg.

 

[sgtmac_46]

My god! Have you missed the thousands of articles on bird flu up to now?

And you are trying to say that there has been no impact of mad cow on the American consumer. But they have buried a few people in the last few weeks for eating chiken and eggs. Who was the last to die from eating a cow?

The whole idea that this is a phantom menace is just a paranoid conspiracy. If the CDC, WHO, and various goverments are running scared about this, how the heck can you say that it is a presidential conspiracy? I have been worried about this thing for months! And I am not alone in that.

Honestly, get out the foil hats folks.

Everything's a presidential conspiracy to some people. Bush created Bird Flu with the same machine he used to send Katrina down on black folks.

 

[Jonathan Randall]

I heard a real interesting article last night about how the bird flu might affect Kentucky Fried Chicken. Did you know that Americans spend 50 billion dollars a year on chicken? I didn't. The article suggested that the economic impact of a bird flu could be a real issue in this industry, but we did learn that 'Mad Cow' had very little impact on the American consumer.

Do this article mention that the bird flu currently does not transmit human to human? Nope.

Two items:
First, that the article was broadcast is indicative of the Presidential Bully Pulpit. If the president did not speak about this subject, this story would never have been assembled.
Second, the article did not address the requirements for mutation and transmission. It truly may be that it was beyond the scope of the article. But, because of this, it is adding to the noise level, and the inaccuracies in understanding in the populace. Without the appropriate caveats, I submit citizens are becoming more aware of the threat, without good knowledge of how much of a threat it is; a Phantom Menace.

If I were Frank Perdue, I would be worried about the 82nd Airborne overtaking my farm.

Michael, "a house divided against itself cannot stand". It is one thing to be opposed to the greater portion of the Administration's policies, as I am (I abhor both it's fiscal irresponsibility and Pollyana "Democracy is on the March..." discourse on the Iraq situation), but not everything can be a party issue. THIS IS THE VERY REASON WHY PRESIDENT GEORGE WASHINGTON DESPISED POLITICAL PARTIES! One party will be against something, even if it is in the nation's best interest, if the OTHER party suggested it.

This is potentially such a grave CLEAR AND PRESENT DANGER to the people of the United States that the PRESIDENT of the United States would be derelict in not addressing it with both barrels. By doing so, he has raised his, admittedly poor image in my mind, a bit. As an American, you have a similiar responsibility to put away party politics for this and take a good, hard look at this issue.

 

[sgtmac_46]

Michael, "a house divided against itself cannot stand". It is one thing to be opposed to the greater portion of the Administration's policies, as I am (I abhor both it's fiscal irresponsibility and Pollyana "Democracy is on the March..." discourse on the Iraq situation), but not everything can be a party issue. THIS IS THE VERY REASON WHY PRESIDENT GEORGE WASHINGTON DESPISED POLITICAL PARTIES! One party will be against something, even if it is in the nation's best interest, if the OTHER party suggested it.

This is potentially such a grave CLEAR AND PRESENT DANGER to the people of the United States that the PRESIDENT of the United States would be derelict in not addressing it with both barrels. By doing so, he has raised his, admittedly poor image in my mind, a bit. As an American, you have a similiar responsibility to put away party politics for this and take a good, hard look at this issue.

I agree...If anything should bring a bi-partisan concensus among people of normally opposing views, this should. I mean, pandemics are no respecter of politics...they kill conservative and liberal, republican and democrat, true believer and atheist alike.


Michael is only illustrating the contrarian traits that make us love him so much.

 

[michaeledward]

This is potentially such a grave CLEAR AND PRESENT DANGER to the people of the United States that the PRESIDENT of the United States would be derelict in not addressing it with both barrels. By doing so, he has raised his, admittedly poor image in my mind, a bit. As an American, you have a similiar responsibility to put away party politics for this and take a good, hard look at this issue.

Using your description here, I posit H5N1 is a 'clear danger', that does deserve consideration of the appropariate health agencies in the country and around the world.

I disagree with the assertion that it is a 'present danger'. Currently the virus is known to affect bird stock in foreign countries (Not North America - Yet). Currently, the virus is unable to make the human-to-human transmission that would be required for the threatened pandemic.

Because I disagree with the 'Present Danger' portion of your assertion, I do not think this should rise to the level of the President. I think it is a distraction for President Bush, whose attention could best serve if it were pointed elsewhere. But, also, it serves generate fear in the populace which is often used to 'rally the base to the President'.

As an analogy ... I think the President's focus on the Bird Flu is much like the focus the administration placed on Missile Defense in the first eight months of 2001. Sure, it's a nice program, and a good idea, and benefits the military-defense complex .... but while we're looking there, we're not looking at who the Minnesota FBI has detained, or what the memo from that Arizona field office is saying.

Oh, well. Anything the President focuses on is good - because the President is focused on it.

 

[sgtmac_46]

Using your description here, I posit H5N1 is a 'clear danger', that does deserve consideration of the appropariate health agencies in the country and around the world.

I disagree with the assertion that it is a 'present danger'. Currently the virus is known to affect bird stock in foreign countries (Not North America - Yet). Currently, the virus is unable to make the human-to-human transmission that would be required for the threatened pandemic.

Because I disagree with the 'Present Danger' portion of your assertion, I do not think this should rise to the level of the President. I think it is a distraction for President Bush, whose attention could best serve if it were pointed elsewhere. But, also, it serves generate fear in the populace which is often used to 'rally the base to the President'.

As an analogy ... I think the President's focus on the Bird Flu is much like the focus the administration placed on Missile Defense in the first eight months of 2001. Sure, it's a nice program, and a good idea, and benefits the military-defense complex .... but while we're looking there, we're not looking at who the Minnesota FBI has detained, or what the memo from that Arizona field office is saying.

Oh, well. Anything the President focuses on is good - because the President is focused on it.

Since you appear to be an expert on the topic, how long between the first spread of a human to human mutation of the virus and a total world wide pandemic? 1 month, 3 months? Certainly not more than 6 months. It seems waiting until then to take the problem seriously is like closing the barn door after the horse has fled the scene and is struck by traffic on the highway. By then the problem will take care of itself.

 

[Jonathan Randall]

Since you appear to be an expert on the topic, how long between the first spread of a human to human mutation of the virus and a total world wide pandemic? 1 month, 3 months? Certainly not more than 6 months. It seems waiting until then to take the problem seriously is like closing the barn door after the horse has fled the scene and is struck by traffic on the highway. By then the problem will take care of itself.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,3604,1641765,00.html

Here is some frightening news. Scientists are now saying that the bird flu IS mutating to a form more easily transmittable to mammals. This is scary stuff and needs to be taken WITH THE UTMOST SERIOUSNESS. This is NOT a time or issue for politics. It's true, I don't like or trust the current political party in power, but we need to take hold of this issue and if they are doing so - let's back them with both barrels.

 

[michaeledward]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,3604,1641765,00.html

Here is some frightening news. Scientists are now saying that the bird flu IS mutating to a form more easily transmittable to mammals. This is scary stuff and needs to be taken WITH THE UTMOST SERIOUSNESS. This is NOT a time or issue for politics. It's true, I don't like or trust the current political party in power, but we need to take hold of this issue and if they are doing so - let's back them with both barrels.

Yep, you're right .. No politics. Just the facts.

This from the actual article.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-11/12/content_3770103.htm

However, the institute has been unable to define which kinds of mutations allow human-to-human transmission, and which conditions lead to the mutations.

The article breaks no new information.

 

[sgtmac_46]

Yep, you're right .. No politics. Just the facts.

This from the actual article.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-11/12/content_3770103.htm



The article breaks no new information.

I think I asked you a question, michael...It even got it repeated above.

"how long between the first spread of a human to human mutation of the virus and a total world wide pandemic? 1 month, 3 months? Certainly not more than 6 months. It seems waiting until then to take the problem seriously is like closing the barn door after the horse has fled the scene and is struck by traffic on the highway. By then the problem will take care of itself."

If you're just going to guess, then you have nothing to add to the debate. To write off the seriousness of the situation simply because you want to discredit the administration is hardly responsible. It seems you've allowed politics to blind you to a threat that effects all of us. You're probably not alone either.

"Men often oppose a thing merely because they have had no agency in planning it, or because it may have been planned by those whom they dislike." Alexander Hamilton

 

[michaeledward]

"how long between the first spread of a human to human mutation of the virus and a total world wide pandemic?

As I understand it. Any pandemic will spead globally over an 36 month period. Except, it will not be a linear distribution.

A very short search on google provided this information. There is some historical information here. I have highlighted one sentence that should be noted. How Fast is apparently, an irrelevant question, as it had no effect on mortality.

In the previous century, pandemics traveled from continent to continent along sea lanes, with global spread complete within six to eight months. The 1957 pandemic, during an era with much less globalization, spread to the US within 4-5 months of its detection in China, and the 1968 pandemic spread to the US from Hong Kong within 2-3 months. As was amply demonstrated by the SARS outbreak, modern travel patterns may significantly reduce the time needed for pandemic influenza viruses to spread globally to a few months or even weeks. The major implication of such rapid spread of an infectious disease is that there will be only minimal time to implement preparations and responses once pandemic viruses have begun to spread. The speed of international spread has no direct effect on mortality, but could compromise response capacity should large parts of the world experience almost simultaneous outbreaks. Many of the public health interventions that successfully contained SARS will not be effective against a disease that is far more contagious, has a very short incubation period, and can be transmitted prior to the onset of symptoms.

Most experts believe that there will be one to six months between the identification of a novel influenza virus and the time that widespread outbreaks begin to occur in the US. Outbreaks are expected to occur simultaneously throughout much of the US, preventing relocation of human and material resources. Because populations will be fully susceptible to an H5N1-like virus, rates of illness could peak fairly rapidly within a given community. The effect of influenza on individual communities will be relatively prolonged - six to eight weeks, though possibly up to twelve weeks.

A pandemic will last much longer than most public health emergencies and may include "waves" of influenza activity separated by months. In 20th century pandemics, a second wave of influenza activity occurred 3 to 12 months after the first wave. In 1957 the second wave began 3 months after the peak of the first wave, while in 1968 the second wave began 12 months after peak of the first wave. The first wave of the 1918 flu occurred in the spring of that year ending in March. That flu was very severe by usual standards but the second wave beginning 6 months later in September was the most fatal. During the 1918 pandemic, the deadly second wave was responsible for more than 90% of the deaths for the entire pandemic. The third wave occurred more than a year later, during the following 1919-1920 winter/spring, and was the mildest of all.

 

[7starmantis]

As I understand it. Any pandemic will spead globally over an 36 month period. Except, it will not be a linear distribution.

A very short search on google provided this information. There is some historical information here. I have highlighted one sentence that should be noted. How Fast is apparently, an irrelevant question, as it had no effect on mortality.

No, its not irrelevant. The spread has no effect on the mortality rate of the virus, thats true. However the amount (as in the number of) deaths is greatly effected by the speed of transmition. The speed the virus spreads has nothing at all to do with how quickly people die from the virus. That is what your source is saying, the fact that in a short period of time hundreds of millions may be infected most certainly does effect the amount of deaths from the virus.

7sm

 

[michaeledward]

This report in from Time magazine.

http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1147894,00.html?cnn=yes

The most interesting bird flu news out of Turkey so far is that the H5N1 virus doesn’t seem to make everyone it infects deathly ill. In fact, doctors in an Ankara hospital are closely watching two young tots who have the virus but aren’t displaying any symptoms.
....
And indeed, about half of all cases that have been confirmed by the World Health Organization have ended in death. But that doesn’t mean bird flu is necessarily 50% fatal for humans.
....
The Archives study isn’t conclusive because no blood tests confirming the presence of H5N1 were performed. But the hypothesis that bird flu is more common and less deadly than previously thought is intriguing.

 

[OnlyAnEgg]

I know it's a tragic mess; but, I have to post this...

 

[someguy]

Every year there is one desiese the media talks about. Usually they blow it way out of proportion.
West Niles...
Mad cow in the US oh no...
Its too bad a couple of people died of this but, frankly the deaths are no where near as prevolent as say a car crash. Or perhaps you want a real pandimic. AIDs.
I'm not to threatend by it.

 

[Don Roley]

Some disturbing news from Turkey. Maybe it is nothing, maybe it is the start of something really bad. That is the problem with things like this. You really can't tell until it happens.

Friday, January 13, 2006

Associated Press

LONDON — Analysis of samples of the H5N1 bird flu virus from two of
its
victims in Turkey has detected a change in one gene in one of two
samples
tested, but it is too early to tell whether the mutation is important,
the
World Health Organization said Thursday.

The mutation, which allows the virus to bind to a human cell more
easily
than to a bird cell, is a shift in the direction of the virus being
able to
infect people more easily than it does now. However, that does not mean
the
mutation has taken root.

"We assume this could be one small step in the virus' attempt to adapt
to
humans," said WHO virologist Mike Perdue. "But it's only seen in one
isolate
and it's difficult to make sweeping conclusions. We just have to wait
and
see what the rest of the viruses [from Turkey] look like."

Turkey has seen an unusually high number of cases in a short period of
time.
Experts are investigating why.

Health authorities there raised the number of people infected with H5N1
from
15 to 18 on Thursday, after the virus turned up in preliminary tests on
two
people hospitalized in southeastern Turkey and in a lung of an
11-year-old
girl who died last week in the same region.

All the victims are thought to have close contact with infected
poultry.
Samples from several of those cases are being sent to a laboratory in
Britain for analysis.

Perdue said the U.N. health agency is not alarmed by the finding in a
single
virus sample because this exact genetic change has been seen before, in
samples from southern China in 2003, and it had no impact on the course
of
the disease, the behavior of the virus or the pattern of human
infections.

"If we saw it in more than 50 percent of samples, it would suggest the
virus
is really trying to adapt to humans and it would be problematic," he
said.

Even if the mutation is confirmed in more samples, that does not
necessarily
mean it is an important enough change on its own to make the virus
easily
transmissible between humans, Perdue said.

The 1918 flu pandemic, the biggest in recorded history, became a global
killer only after the virus slowly made a series of genetic mutations.

Influenza viruses are notoriously volatile, and experts expect to see
mutations frequently. Many mutations are meaningless, or happen in only
a
minority of the virus samples, but specialists are watching the H5N1
virus
carefully to pick up any important changes as early as possible.

Although nothing can be done to stop the mutations, tracking them is
considered the best way to anticipate the next human flu pandemic.

 

[Blindside]

Every year there is one desiese the media talks about. Usually they blow it way out of proportion.
West Niles...
Mad cow in the US oh no...
Its too bad a couple of people died of this but, frankly the deaths are no where near as prevolent as say a car crash. Or perhaps you want a real pandimic. AIDs.
I'm not to threatend by it.

If you aren't threatened by the potential of a H5N1-like virus, you aren't paying attention. Right now human mortality for those infected by H5N1 is running about 50%, fortunately the Turkey examples are running less than that right now. I don't think I'm being alarmist to worry about what happens if it becomes easily transmittable in humans, or for that matter to actually start planning for the security of my family if it does.

Lamont