Bird Flu

[michaeledward]

If you aren't threatened by the potential of a H5N1-like virus, you aren't paying attention. Right now human mortality for those infected by H5N1 is running about 50%, fortunately the Turkey examples are running less than that right now. I don't think I'm being alarmist to worry about what happens if it becomes easily transmittable in humans, or for that matter to actually start planning for the security of my family if it does.

Lamont

As the Time Magazine article points out, the report of 50% fatality of H5N1 may be grossly off the mark. That number is based only on the known infections by the WHO. The WHO did not test a broad sample of the population. It tested only those who were sick. The report indicates the there are some asymptomatically infected people.

At this point, it appears to be something about which we know our information in incomplete. Continuing to quote a 50% fatality rate is, I think, alarmist.

 

[TigerWoman]

I watched Oprah yesterday and a disease specialist was talking about the bird flu. He basically said to stockup for 8-12 weeks, and buy masks, not the surgical kind but the kind with two filters on each side. Even if the bird flu doesn't happen he said, a pandemic will happen soon. That statement left me a little iffy. A lifetime of paranoia. Or better safe than sorry?

Anyway this also bothered me. From the show, at http://www2.oprah.com, it is still listed today but don't know if they archive it.

Who is most at risk of bird flu?

Dr. Osterholm says that a typical flu season kills 36,000 people every year, and the very young and very old are most at risk "because they are the ones that are most vulnerable to infectious diseases."

Not exactly the case with bird flu, he says. If the bird flu is anything like the 1918 pandemic, the highest death rates could actually be "those between the ages of 20 and 40."

"In the months of September and October of 1918, 7 percent of the residents of Boston between 20 and 40 years of age died," he says.

How could individuals in the prime of their health be so susceptible to a disease? "It turns out that this virus multiplies very quickly in your body," Dr. Osterholm explains. "The people who have the healthiest immune systems are the ones that succumb to the virus because the immune system goes into overdrive."

In other words the healthiest people are the most prone to die. Here I am taking Nutriferon, a Shaklee product to boost the immune system so I don't get sick over the winter and this might hurt me in the case of bird flu?

This sounds like its better to wear masks and stay away from people. But then he also said that bird flu is most contagious the day before symptoms are evident so people could be spreading it unknowingly and no one would be safe to be around.

Just hope it doesn't happen. TW

 

[Blindside]

I watched Oprah yesterday and a disease specialist was talking about the bird flu. He basically said to stockup for 8-12 weeks, and buy masks, not the surgical kind but the kind with two filters on each side. Even if the bird flu doesn't happen he said, a pandemic will happen soon. That statement left me a little iffy. A lifetime of paranoia. Or better safe than sorry?

Any preparations you make for a possible bird flu outbreak will only provide you with security in other situations. Having 8-12 weeks of food and plans for water is good for any person/family to have, that being said, having more is better.

N95 masks are the minimum recommended by the CDC for dealing with avian flu. You can buy N95 masks that look like dust masks, for higher protection you will have to go with some type of respirator. If you go the respirator route, P100 filters are only slightly more expensive than N95 filters, and offer more protection against different types of aerosols.

Lamont

 

[Blindside]

As the Time Magazine article points out, the report of 50% fatality of H5N1 may be grossly off the mark. That number is based only on the known infections by the WHO. The WHO did not test a broad sample of the population. It tested only those who were sick. The report indicates the there are some asymptomatically infected people.

At this point, it appears to be something about which we know our information in incomplete. Continuing to quote a 50% fatality rate is, I think, alarmist.

It is the only fatality rate that we have, and given the possible consequences I'd rather be alarmist than too passive.

Lamont

 

[michaeledward]

. But then he also said that bird flu is most contagious the day before symptoms are evident so people could be spreading it unknowingly and no one would be safe to be around.

Currently, Bird Flu (H5N1 Virus) is NOT contagious from human to human.

I know (or expect) that you are aware of this. It may just be the language with which you are reporting this, or it may be exactly what he said. People, at this time, are not unknowingly spreading anything. He may expect that, if the mutation occurs, people will be contagious without having external symptoms.

 

[Blindside]

Currently, Bird Flu (H5N1 Virus) is NOT contagious from human to human.

I know (or expect) that you are aware of this. It may just be the language with which you are reporting this, or it may be exactly what he said. People, at this time, are not unknowingly spreading anything. He may expect that, if the mutation occurs, people will be contagious without having external symptoms.

Or he might be referring to the other strains of avian influenza that are currently human to human transmissible (H1N1,H1N2,H3N2).

 

[michaeledward]

Or he might be referring to the other strains of avian influenza that are currently human to human transmissible (H1N1,H1N2,H3N2).

And why, in the context of the information provided here, would we make that assumption or draw that conclusion? I have not seen the Oprah episode. There may be further clarification there.

I do hope the World Health Organization is taking all 'appropriate' action to monitor viruses across the globe. I think the level of discussion of 'Bird Flu' is completely out of proportion with the known facts.

 

[TigerWoman]

Currently, Bird Flu (H5N1 Virus) is NOT contagious from human to human.

I know (or expect) that you are aware of this. It may just be the language with which you are reporting this, or it may be exactly what he said. People, at this time, are not unknowingly spreading anything. He may expect that, if the mutation occurs, people will be contagious without having external symptoms.

Yes, I'm aware of that. Also it was made pretty clear from the doctor that it is not a big step for the virus to mutate into something that is spread human to human. When/if that happens, then it may be too late to go shopping for three months of food and the masks may be impossible to get. Already Tamiflu is practically impossible to get. I looked. It takes a prescription from a doctor for the amount needed at the time. No stockpiling. According to Dr. Osterholm, Tamiflu only works if you megadose in the two days before symptoms anyway. He said that Tamiflu is better reserved for our medical personnel. Our hospitals, medical personnel, cities would have to have plans in place for the sick or dead. I know our small town in MN. had a meeting about this to start planning. Maybe our town officials took note that their was a national conference on bird flu and pandemic spread in Minneapolis/St. Paul. Dr. Osterholm comes from Minnesota. I think that is why the warnings are happening, to better prepare than to be left unprepared.

I used to have two months of food and water in case of a earthquake while living in the LA area. I had two small children to think of. I just hated that, because all we ever had were rumbles, scary rumbles but no damage except our house slab probably got cracked more. So in a few months after we left Calif., sold our home, they had the Northridge earthquake. The area we were in was greatly affected, alot of damage, a few shortages since we were adjacent to Northridge. Never know when it could happen. Anyway, I guess I could rotate food again if I want the feeling of security. But won't feel too good even if my family was fully prepared if it happened when my daughter is living in Phoenix, probably not prepared. So, I don't know.

I guess it wouldn't hurt with all the experts warning us. What other warning would you require? A for sure outbreak of human transmitted flu may be too late for us ALL to prepare. TW

 

[michaeledward]

I guess it wouldn't hurt with all the experts warning us. What other warning would you require? A for sure outbreak of human transmitted flu may be too late for us ALL to prepare. TW

Being reasonably prepared is always a good idea. I do think this whole bird flu issue is completely out of proportion. I don't mean to belittle the deaths, or the dangers.

I heard the President discuss the possibilities of a Bird Flu outbreak a few months back in a press conference. To me, the question in the Press Conference, and the President's response sounded entirely too scripted; like the question was a planted question.

The President is often described as having a 'Bully Pulpit'; when he speaks, events follow.

I think we would find all experts stating it is impossible to predict a pandemic. So, whether a small mutation or a large mutation is what it would take to modify H5N1 to be a human-to-human contagion is irrelevant to the ability for accurate predictions. The President, through his words and actions, has created an expectation of prediction.

This article covers some of the points I am following. It is kind of a long article, but it points to some of the common sense actions, and some of the out of proportion actions being taken around the world.

http://www.infoshop.org/inews/article.php?story=2006012114033373

 

[sgtmac_46]

Being reasonably prepared is always a good idea. I do think this whole bird flu issue is completely out of proportion. I don't mean to belittle the deaths, or the dangers.

The problem, michael, is that once it IS in 'proportion' it's too late to do anything about it. It's a lot like wearing a bullet resistant vest. Sure, you might feel silly for overreacting.....unless someone does shoot at you.

I heard the President discuss the possibilities of a Bird Flu outbreak a few months back in a press conference. To me, the question in the Press Conference, and the President's response sounded entirely too scripted; like the question was a planted question.

Oh, I know, just another conspiracy.

The President is often described as having a 'Bully Pulpit'; when he speaks, events follow.

Well, again, it certainly sounds like a conspiracy to me. Actually, what it seems like to me is that, every time the president speaks, you have to manufacture a new theory to explain how what he said was part of a devious conspiracy.

I think we would find all experts stating it is impossible to predict a pandemic. So, whether a small mutation or a large mutation is what it would take to modify H5N1 to be a human-to-human contagion is irrelevant to the ability for accurate predictions. The President, through his words and actions, has created an expectation of prediction.

There are a lot of things it's impossible to predict....like having a vehicle collision on the way home from work. But it's clear that not wearing a seat belt in a collision is a quick way to die.

Actually, what the president has done, is what I would expect him to do. Prepare for the possibility. If the virus DOES mutate, and we've done absolutely nothing, then it's really too late.

This is like the New Orleans deal in reverse. If the President 'underreacts' he is criticized as being incompetent. If the president 'overreacts' he's criticized for 'manufacturing a non-existent crisis'.

This article covers some of the points I am following. It is kind of a long article, but it points to some of the common sense actions, and some of the out of proportion actions being taken around the world.

That's all well and good, michael, but will you be willing to take personally responsible if there is an outbreak and we do nothing? Doubtful. Likely in that event, you'll just disavow any knowledge of the argument you've made here. That's what is so great about being a monday morning quarterback.....You don't have to take any responsibility for your calls.

I think Alexander Hamilton summed up the real issue....

 

[michaeledward]

That's all well and good, michael, but will you be willing to take personally responsible if there is an outbreak and we do nothing?

I can't understand how I get accused of 'doing nothing'.

I can't believe you are unable to comprehend what I actually write?

Please stop attempting to dumb down my positions to your level.

Maybe this will help ... (but I doubt it)

I do hope the World Health Organization is taking all 'appropriate' action to monitor viruses across the globe.

 

[sgtmac_46]

I can't understand how I get accused of 'doing nothing'.

Nobody accused you of 'doing nothing'....though, you are doing nothing. What I accuse you of is advocating 'doing nothing' as a plan of action, or at least, doing little.

I can't believe you are unable to comprehend what I actually write?

Oh, please, I know exactly what you've written....Let me paraphrase. 'There is no terrorist threa...,' er, I mean 'there IS no Bird Flu threat, it's all made up by the administration so they can take your attention off what's REALLY going on'.

Please stop attempting to dumb down my positions to your level.

You do like the simplistic insults, don't you. I say something you don't like (but I didn't insult you) and you use words like 'dumb down' and insinuate that's my 'level'. If you can't have a debate, without resorting to childish insults, then perhaps you need a 'time-out'. Please, have some self-respect.

Maybe this will help ... (but I doubt it)

It won't help, because it's a dodge. Your real issue is with the man himself, not with his policy on Bird Flu. That is the issue. You want to attack the administration for 'overreacting' which, quite frankly, most agree isn't happening in this case. I think I hit a nerve in pointing that out, though.

Your entire argument is based on faulty logic. For instance, you've maintained that there is no threat because there is no evidence the Bird Flu can transmit from human to human....yet. Well, no kidding. If it could, we'd already be in an epidemic. Perhaps there's something you are failing to understand. By the time the virus DOES mutate to a human to human contact form, the genie is out of the bottle, and it's too late to look for a stopper.

Overreacting may waste money, underracting has the potential to kill many people. I vote for overreaction in this circumstance. You may have faith in your proclaimations that there is no serious threat, but i'm far from convinced.

 

[TigerWoman]

Thanks Michael for the article. I read the whole thing, took time to think about it. If the writer had been a little less opinionated, more factual it would have been easier to swallow. It does bother me about Rumsfeld economically benefiting from Tamiflu and about his history. It could also be that they are opportunists to a developing problem and potential disaster. Flu will always be around and Tamiflu was developed for that, not the bird flu. According to Dr. Osterholm, it is not a cure but helps save lives if given early. I don't think most of us will get any, at the right time, anyway. It will go to medical, infrastructure, people who would most likely survive. Not for the over 50's I would imagine. Osterholm even said that the hospitals would treat people like that, the ones who would most likely survive.

Whatever I have read doesn't convince me that the bird flu has not stopped mutating and hasn't done any changes in the last eight years. Some have said it has gone more to migratory birds. The writer of that article didn't mention Turkey, which is also bird to human but there have been mutations. One mutation too many and it will go human-to-human. Or it might take a few years, or not. I also give you credit since you did not discourage taking precautions now. Actually I ordered masks as I noted the place I got them from, did not have alot of them. Who knows they may just list it like that and have a storehouse full. It may be just money wasted, kind of like a fender bender. I have enough to worry about then worry about bird flu and if this gives me a little semi-security so be it.

Also, I don't believe so many scientists and doctors coming forward to speak about bird flu, also saying for cities, hospitals, families to prepare should be ignored. I can't believe they are part of a scheme to make money. Sure some make money in the grant process. They are a part of government to some extent as being directed to investigate bird flu and preparations needed but I don't think they would put their careers on the line to squawk that the sky could fall to later look like dodo birds. Sars was real and we were fortunate in that it was quashed but Bird Flu could be alot different. So, this does give me pause and reason to regard what they are saying. TW

 

[MJS]

Mod. Note.
Please, keep the conversation polite and respectful.

-MJS
-MT Moderator-

 

[michaeledward]

TigerWoman,

So, last night, as I go to bed, I find my wife curled up in bed reading this catalog.

www.beprepared.com

Aarrrgghhh!!!

Looking forward to receiving the 43 pound SuperPail of lentils ... woo-hoo!

http://beprepared.com/product.asp?pn=FS%20P290

 

[7starmantis]

TigerWoman,

So, last night, as I go to bed, I find my wife curled up in bed reading this catalog.

www.beprepared.com

Aarrrgghhh!!!

Looking forward to receiving the 43 pound SuperPail of lentils ... woo-hoo!

http://beprepared.com/product.asp?pn=FS%20P290

I've tried hard for years to understand what makes a person mock being prepared for emergencies. I'm not sayin you should go crazy, but why do people hold so firm to their own belief or "gut feeling" that "nothing will happen to me"? I mean that is exactly what gets people killed in survival situations....being prepared is simply a precaution that is basically insurance. I wonder if people who feel this way have life or health insurance?

If you just happen to be right nad you never need any type of emergency equipment what have you lost....a few bucks? What if you do need it and you were too proud to buy it?

just interesting to me...

7sm

 

[michaeledward]

I do hope you are not referring to me (although that begs the question to whom you are refering), when you say someone chooses to 'mock' preparedness.

I hope that I have not been seen as 'mocking' reasonable preparedness.

I have 30 gallons of potable water stored in my house. I have dehydrated food in my house (primarily used for camping and hiking ... but I keep some quantity on hand). I have several propane bottles for my propane fired coleman stove. And there are regular trips to the grocery store in my house.

I think that having a 44 pound canister of white rice is not reasonable. Page two of that catalogue has a YEAR SUPPLY of dry food, freeze dried food, and dehydrated food; A YEAR? (It's a bargain at $1399.95 + $12.00 Shipping).

 

[7starmantis]

I wouldn't say you have been mocking reasonable preparedness, but then again what is reasonable to one might be completely unreasonable to another.

Yes, I would say a year of dehydrated food is a bit excesive, but then you turn around and are pretty close to mocking those who advocate preparedness for things like biological epidimics....such as bird flu. Is it more "reasonable" to prepare yourself with propane and regular trips to the super market than it is to prepare yourself with filter masks and vacines? Is the need for one more urgent or "reasonable" than the need for the other?

I know your not trying to belittle the dangers of Bird Flu, but you simply write off those who advocate some level of activity to become prepared for its mutation....on an individual or governmental level.

7sm

 

[TigerWoman]

Ohhhh, you had to show me that site. Maybe deciding something is possible or not possible comes down to your mentality- pessimistic or optimistic. I know my mom was the eternal optimist when she really had no reason to be. So I am a pessimist mostly. Arrrghhh!

That site has pages and pages of food barrels. Heck you can order 45 boxes of food for a year, prepackaged for a year at a tidy sum of 2K+. You would really have to be paranoid for that. You would need an extra room for food. Even three months is a lot of food to store. I usually go to the store twice a week, minimum once. 12 trips worth of food minimum~it has got to be condensed somehow.

Some of that was a little much. The powdered peanut butter for example. But I suppose the freeze dried veggies and fruits are smaller in size than canned for storage. Freeze dried meat. MRE's and I notice that some of the meals are out of stock/backordered.

I will have to think about it. And I guess that is what you are doing when you started the thread Michael is making us all think about it. Thinking, studying the situation is one point closer to doing something for preparedness. And it sounds like you are more prepared than my family is at the moment, masks or not.

Where I got the P100 masks: http://safetyrespirators.com/scripts/depot.exe?pgm=sarsgate.bbx TW

 

[michaeledward]

Is it more "reasonable" to prepare yourself with propane and regular trips to the super market than it is to prepare yourself with filter masks and vacines? Is the need for one more urgent or "reasonable" than the need for the other?

The reasonableness of a preparation would appear to be proportional to the likelyhood of the event for which one is preparing is likely to occur.

I am quite certain that I am going to need to consume food over the next several days, therefore, it is reasonable to make weekly trips to the grocery store.

I am less certain of the possibility of my municipalities public water supply becoming contaminated, or my electric stove not being able to function for several days. While these things have been constantly available to me in the past, and there is no reason to expect them to not be regularly available in the future, that possibility does exist (especially in winter in New England).

The possibility of genetic mutation of a virus, seems even more remote. Then, if a mutation does occur, it needs to be a mutation that enables human to human infection. I wonder if the possibility of a mutation of the virus that makes it inert is equally likely to a mutation that creates a pandemic.

So, reasonableness, I think, is something that can be quantified.