It seems like Facui is changing things but he really isn't. He's basing his responses on the actions that people take. If people do A, then the outcome is A. If people do B, then the outcome is B. If the people don't do A, then we are looking at possible outcomes of B,C,D, E,F. People think he keeps changing, but he's clearing working the. "what if scenarios" and the likely outcomes. He can't give a stable answer because that all depends on the action of the people.
I surprised that so many people miss that. He's always saying stuff like "if we continue to do A then we can expect outcome A. But, If we don't do that then we can expect outcome B." He's been correct on all of the scenarios that would cause an increase. Much of which is playing out in the U.S. now.
I also think that he would have been much clearer if he didn't have to dance around the politics and trying not to appear to be "going against" government leadership. I would rather that he tell it like it is. If it's terrible news, then it's just terrible news. Sometimes life is like that.