Big Don
Sr. Grandmaster
Despite MTV's Rock the Vote and it's spokescelebs, the youth, by and large, don't vote
Who do you think will (not 'want to' but *will*) win the election?
- Thread starter shesulsa
- Start date
I think they'll turn out in record numbers this time-my son (who falls onto the upper limit of that demographic at 25) is working for the Obama campaign, and getting A LOT of "kids" registered-he teaches high school, and he says that A LOT of 18 year olds are registering,in high school and college......and they're underpolled.
They can vote by mail-today, if they like. I reckon on November 4, we'll see what happens.......:lol:
What good are polls that only list 3 choices, dumb, dumber and undecided?
The polls are great if you're one of the two major parties involved. They don't really tell you anything but they are great for swaying the "great unwashed masses" mind now and then. Hell, I don't even trust the polls AFTER the election, let alone the one before hand.
As for the youth vote: My senior year in high school we had an assembly to register to vote and (for the guys) sign up for Selective Service. That was 20 years ago this year. Of all the folks in that class that registered (most of the class bitching about it being stooopid all the while) I doubt 10% actually voted. I expect more than that to turn out this year but certainly don't expect to see the youth of the nation turning out in droves to vote. For the most part (and luckily there are exceptions to the rule) folks in the late teens and early twenties do a buttload of talking but very little actual action.
As for the youth vote: My senior year in high school we had an assembly to register to vote and (for the guys) sign up for Selective Service. That was 20 years ago this year. Of all the folks in that class that registered (most of the class bitching about it being stooopid all the while) I doubt 10% actually voted. I expect more than that to turn out this year but certainly don't expect to see the youth of the nation turning out in droves to vote. For the most part (and luckily there are exceptions to the rule) folks in the late teens and early twenties do a buttload of talking but very little actual action.
In the end this all comes down to how the economy is rollling or not rolling so to speak. That favors Obama and why I believe McCain will lose.
Latest polls show Obama developing bigger lead over McCain....
And winning Ohio, and maybe Florida....
And winning Ohio, and maybe Florida....
marlon
Master Black Belt
i think the republicans will win. McCain has successfully distanced himself from Bush (the whole party seems to be doing that) and Obama is black with a chance to win. This will prompt a lot of people who would not generally vote to do so to prevent the historic event. Obama is making mistakes and the smear campaign did not work for Hillary and it will not work for Obama. the election is there for the republicans to lose not for the democrats to win. The war favours the republicans and the bailout thing is happening early enough that it will not be a major issue when it comes time to vote. My 2 Canadain cents worth 
marlon
marlon
OP
OP
Yes. This mornings numbers, according to a poll ABC quoted, say faith in Palin numbers are WAY down from about 42ish% who didn't believe she could do the job to 67ish% who don't believe she could do the job. The time span is just weeks.
But I still think there will be a republican in the white house next term.
hardheadjarhead
Senior Master
Here are some interesting sites tracking the polls:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
http://www.pollster.com/
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/
They all have some interesting articles as well. Note that the second two are more in concordance with one another. Each likely has a different definition of what weak or strong support specifically is.
What I find interesting is that Obama has consistenly led in the polls since June, except for the RNC/Palin bounce, which has dissipated. Indeed, Obama is in a better position now than he was before the RNC.
This may have been brought up here before, but the polls often don't reflect those with cell phones, as many pollers don't call them. A significant number of young people have cell phones--and no land lines--which would remove them from access to query.
That very well could skew these results to the right and McCain. Most young people are pro-Obama, and if they're being missed in the polling, November 5th might not be so tight as many predict.
Regards,
Steve
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
http://www.pollster.com/
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/
They all have some interesting articles as well. Note that the second two are more in concordance with one another. Each likely has a different definition of what weak or strong support specifically is.
What I find interesting is that Obama has consistenly led in the polls since June, except for the RNC/Palin bounce, which has dissipated. Indeed, Obama is in a better position now than he was before the RNC.
This may have been brought up here before, but the polls often don't reflect those with cell phones, as many pollers don't call them. A significant number of young people have cell phones--and no land lines--which would remove them from access to query.
That very well could skew these results to the right and McCain. Most young people are pro-Obama, and if they're being missed in the polling, November 5th might not be so tight as many predict.
Regards,
Steve
Kwanjang
3rd Black Belt
I wish we had a viable third party candidate. Every election cycle they (Republicans & Democrats) point their finger to the other party and say, Look how their failed polocies- have failed. Dang it, the Reps and the Dems are equally to blame for our countries woos. They have been "in charge" for over one hundred years. I don't think this is what our founding fathers had in mind, and should they come back to life-I think they would start another revolution. President Bush has some low poll numbers, however congress's approval rating is the lowest ever. (stupid congress)
Maybe if Senator Obama "actually" had a little more experience-maybe?
How can he talk about change and bring in a new era, when he appointed a "veteran" professional polotician to be his VP.
Someone please clear this up for me. I am under the impression Obama won the Senate Primary because the incumbant Democrat was caught-up in a sex scandal. Then he won in the general election because of a sex scandal with his republican rival. So now here he is--Mr. change and hope. I "hope" I have enough money to pay the bills at my studio(s) this month. If not I will have to "change" my profession.
Senator McCain (like him or not) enlisted and volunteered for missions (and ultimately shot down on one) has suffered, when he didn't have to for this country- he could have left the Hanoi Hilton. He followed the code... first in, first out, and he was punished more severely. I believe him to be a man of honor. I personally do not beleive this is true for Senator Obama.
Senator Mccain is a career politician too. (like him or not) had the brass to choose Gov. Palin (whether He wanted to or not) There is no-nor will there be any change, as long as we are choked to death by a two party system that has failed us time and time again! sorry for the rant- just passionate about my polotics.
It will be close- McCain/Palin
Maybe if Senator Obama "actually" had a little more experience-maybe?
How can he talk about change and bring in a new era, when he appointed a "veteran" professional polotician to be his VP.
Someone please clear this up for me. I am under the impression Obama won the Senate Primary because the incumbant Democrat was caught-up in a sex scandal. Then he won in the general election because of a sex scandal with his republican rival. So now here he is--Mr. change and hope. I "hope" I have enough money to pay the bills at my studio(s) this month. If not I will have to "change" my profession.
Senator McCain (like him or not) enlisted and volunteered for missions (and ultimately shot down on one) has suffered, when he didn't have to for this country- he could have left the Hanoi Hilton. He followed the code... first in, first out, and he was punished more severely. I believe him to be a man of honor. I personally do not beleive this is true for Senator Obama.
Senator Mccain is a career politician too. (like him or not) had the brass to choose Gov. Palin (whether He wanted to or not) There is no-nor will there be any change, as long as we are choked to death by a two party system that has failed us time and time again! sorry for the rant- just passionate about my polotics.
It will be close- McCain/Palin
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