What is your plan for re-opening?

[Gerry Seymour]

Yeah wow... I knew it would be inevitable that there would be increases in breakouts, but I wonder at what point it becomes out of control. Good call not going... but yeah, hoping your family is safe.

An interesting progression I hadn't expected, but which apparently was predicted by epidemiological models: the virus is progressing in more and more rural areas. Apparently it's easier to start in urban areas because of the denser population, but an article I didn't finish reading (had to go pick up an order) reported that rural areas are actually more vulnerable to the virus. The part I read seemed NOT to be saying it was about less medical treatment, but perhaps it's about it being harder to get good testing set up in those areas. In any case, some of the highest growth rates now are in areas with smaller cities and more rural population. Unfortunately, that describes our area quite well.

 

[Gerry Seymour]

as ive said several times before, the infection rate is a very poor indicator of how much of a problem there is, you really need to wait a week or two and see if the seriously ill /dead rate increases markedly, theres a fairly good chance that most of those are are particularly vulnerable have all ready been seriously ill. as it only really advisedly effects a very small % of the population, each serious case reduces those left to be infected, so the death should reduce even if infections rise, its also a fair assumption that those with serious immune/respiratory problems havent been out pulling statues down, or or that the young people who have dont live with grand ma


more testing means more confirm infections, its always going to increase and as ive also said several times viruses evolve to become less likely to make you seriously ill, as a general rule, , a state of play that can only be seen with some time

In several US states, hospitalization rates are rising (as are the numbers of folks needing ventilators). I didn't expect that, since the demographics seem to be shifting - more young folks as a proportion of the infected.

 

[jobo]

In several US states, hospitalization rates are rising (as are the numbers of folks needing ventilators). I didn't expect that, since the demographics seem to be shifting - more young folks as a proportion of the infected.

but its only just hit some states, it still the first wave of infections rather than some new thing

 

[Gerry Seymour]

but its only just hit some states, it still the first wave of infections rather than some new thing

It probably is the first wave finally starting to crest. Not sure what that has to do with what I said.

 

[_Simon_]

as ive said several times before, the infection rate is a very poor indicator of how much of a problem there is, you really need to wait a week or two and see if the seriously ill /dead rate increases markedly,

This is the tail end of a two or three weeks of eased restrictions.

 

[_Simon_]

An interesting progression I hadn't expected, but which apparently was predicted by epidemiological models: the virus is progressing in more and more rural areas. Apparently it's easier to start in urban areas because of the denser population, but an article I didn't finish reading (had to go pick up an order) reported that rural areas are actually more vulnerable to the virus. The part I read seemed NOT to be saying it was about less medical treatment, but perhaps it's about it being harder to get good testing set up in those areas. In any case, some of the highest growth rates now are in areas with smaller cities and more rural population. Unfortunately, that describes our area quite well.

Yeah wow that is interesting.. makes sense for sure..

 

[jobo]

This is the tail end of a two or three weeks of eased restrictions.

but the two are not necessarily cause and effect, The US has very much the same deaths per million as Sweden and Sweden did practically no lock down at all by comparison. SO the jury is still out on if that made any difference at all and therefore if relaxing it will make any difference at all

 

[_Simon_]

but the two are not necessarily cause and effect, The US has very much the same deaths per million as Sweden and Sweden did practically no lock down at all by comparison. SO the jury is still out on if that made any difference at all and therefore if relaxing it will make any difference at all

I said there'd be breakouts, you said you need to wait few weeks to see if the increase is significant. I said yeah recent numbers are after the weeks of restrictions being eased. You said oh but they're not necessarily related.

... am I missing something here?

But yeah, it's very hard to put cause and effect. I've been keeping track, and the numbers certainly dwindled very low when we were in heavy restrictions. But of course, many MANY factors at play here, who decided to go get tested etc

 

[jobo]

I said there'd be breakouts, you said you need to wait few weeks to see if the increase is significant. I said yeah recent numbers are after the weeks of restrictions being eased. You said oh but they're not necessarily related.

... am I missing something here?

But yeah, it's very hard to put cause and effect. I've been keeping track, and the numbers certainly dwindled very low when we were in heavy restrictions. But of course, many MANY factors at play here, who decided to go get tested etc

because your not being clear are you saying, which is how i read it, that cases have spiked or that deaths have spiked, if its the former you need to wait, if its the latter it may not be directly tied to the easing of restrictions. either way your suggesting causation that may not actually be there

 

[_Simon_]

because your not being clear are you saying, which is how i read it, that cases have spiked or that deaths have spiked, if its the former you need to wait, if its the latter it may not be directly tied to the easing of restrictions. either way your suggesting causation that may not actually be there

Thought I was pretty clear when I said cases have spiked.. just people who were infected (ie people who had tested positive).

And I'm pretty sure I didn't suggest it, but it's the data I got from other sources specific to my state. Restrictions eased -> increase in cases in weeks to follow. Just a sequence, but a very significant increase in numbers.

We could play the causation/no causation game to the nth degree, just recalling what's going on here. If that's cool brah.

 

[jobo]

Thought I was pretty clear when I said cases have spiked.. just people who were infected (ie people who had tested positive).

And I'm pretty sure I didn't suggest it, but it's the data I got from other sources specific to my state. Restrictions eased -> increase in cases in weeks to follow. Just a sequence, but a very significant increase in numbers.

We could play the causation/no causation game to the nth degree, just recalling what's going on here. If that's cool brah.

 

[jobo]

Thought I was pretty clear when I said cases have spiked.. just people who were infected (ie people who had tested positive).

And I'm pretty sure I didn't suggest it, but it's the data I got from other sources specific to my state. Restrictions eased -> increase in cases in weeks to follow. Just a sequence, but a very significant increase in numbers.

We could play the causation/no causation game to the nth degree, just recalling what's going on here. If that's cool brah.

US death rate continuing to fall, whilst cases are stable/rising. so little correlation between number of cases and number of death

 

[Monkey Turned Wolf]

US death rate continuing to fall, whilst cases are stable/rising. so little correlation between number of cases and number of death View attachment 22923View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923

That's something that's been more predicted. As we get more testing done, we can know the actual relationship between number of cases vs. number of deaths (ie: active death rates), rather than only testing those who are ill/hospitalized. So the original hypothesis was the death rates would remain the same/decrease slightly while confirmed cases increased significantly but not majorly, if COVID itself followed the expected curve.

The big concern is if the actual number of cases (rather than confirmed cases) increases majorly, since the actual death rate (rather than confirmed death rate) remains the same.

 

[jobo]

That's something that's been more predicted. As we get more testing done, we can know the actual relationship between number of cases vs. number of deaths (ie: active death rates), rather than only testing those who are ill/hospitalized. So the original hypothesis was the death rates would remain the same/decrease slightly while confirmed cases increased significantly but not majorly, if COVID itself followed the expected curve.

The big concern is if the actual number of cases (rather than confirmed cases) increases majorly, since the actual death rate (rather than confirmed death rate) remains the same.

but the deaths havent decreased @ SLIGHTLY@ they have plummeted by two thirds

 

[_Simon_]

US death rate continuing to fall, whilst cases are stable/rising. so little correlation between number of cases and number of death View attachment 22923View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923

Cool, but again... I was talking about cases rising, not deaths or correlations/causations between things....

 

[jobo]

Cool, but again... I was talking about cases rising, not deaths or correlations/causations between things....

yea, but im saying cases rising is of no importance at all, if the death rate continues to fall, or remains stable

im also saying that your implication that the relaxing of restrictions has given rise to the increase in cases may not be factually true and would only be a concern if the restriction had actually been effective in reducing the spread of the virus and therefore deaths and that is far from proven, in the UK, now we are getting an idea of the demographic of the seriously ill/deaths, the lock down is looking less and less effective and quite possibly counter productive

 

[_Simon_]

yea, but im saying cases rising is of no importance at all, if the death rate continues to fall, or remains stable

im also saying that your implication that the relaxing of restrictions has given rise to the increase in cases may not be factually true and would only be a concern if the restriction had actually been effective in reducing the spread of the virus and therefore deaths and that is far from proven, in the UK, now we are getting an idea of the demographic of the seriously ill/deaths, the lock down is looking less and less effective and quite possibly counter productive

I'd say the cases rising is pretty crucial to look at... just because them people don't die they can spread it others who CAN die easily.

The data I've seen, cases dropped very low from when we went into lockdown. Upon restrictions being eased, the weeks that followed, numbers gradually increased, getting to double digits consistently.

No I'm not implying anything, but that's the state at hand. Of course nothing may be "factually true", you're sounding like some certain philosophers XD.

Just presenting what's happening, and my thought (just a thought, not an "absolute concrete factual scientifically backed 100% accurate statement) is that once restrictions were eased, people thought it was all over, and acted as per normal (hence they've found family to family transmissions to be responsible for more than half the increases), and it spread like wildfire.

 

[jobo]

I'd say the cases rising is pretty crucial to look at... just because them people don't die they can spread it others who CAN die easily.

The data I've seen, cases dropped very low from when we went into lockdown. Upon restrictions being eased, the weeks that followed, numbers gradually increased, getting to double digits consistently.

No I'm not implying anything, but that's the state at hand. Of course nothing may be "factually true", you're sounding like some certain philosophers XD.

Just presenting what's happening, and my thought (just a thought, not an "absolute concrete factual scientifically backed 100% accurate statement) is that once restrictions were eased, people thought it was all over, and acted as per normal (hence they've found family to family transmissions to be responsible for more than half the increases), and it spread like wildfire.

but we have just gone in a circle, there is currently no correlation between the rise in infections and the number of deaths, in fact just the opposite is true,just parroting that more cases means more deaths when the figures show otherwise, isnt reflecting reality

 

[Gerry Seymour]

US death rate continuing to fall, whilst cases are stable/rising. so little correlation between number of cases and number of death View attachment 22923View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923

Take specific areas out, and those numbers tell a different story. The US is a huge area, and needs to be viewed as a set of regions for numbers to mean much. State-by-state is probably the easiest clear picture - similar to viewing Europe country-by-country.

 

[Gerry Seymour]

That's something that's been more predicted. As we get more testing done, we can know the actual relationship between number of cases vs. number of deaths (ie: active death rates), rather than only testing those who are ill/hospitalized. So the original hypothesis was the death rates would remain the same/decrease slightly while confirmed cases increased significantly but not majorly, if COVID itself followed the expected curve.

The big concern is if the actual number of cases (rather than confirmed cases) increases majorly, since the actual death rate (rather than confirmed death rate) remains the same.

Both hospitalizations and positive test rates are on the rise in most areas. Those are the numbers least likely to be skewed upward by increased testing. In fact, it would be more reasonable for increased testing (beyond likely symptoms) to decrease the positive test rate.