What is your plan for re-opening?

[dvcochran]

well simple isnt the word, data collection and aylisis is anything but,,,, BUT there a data collection companies who can predict the out come of elections to remarkable accuracy with only a few thousand data points, coz they understand the variables and account for them. analysing the data is the easy part., analysing the data to ensure you have accurate data is tricky

what they clearly needed was EXPERTS, what they got was anything but. they should have passed the whole thing to gallop to do, if they didn't ( and they clearly didn't) have that expertise in house.

you were warning about the over diagnosis of cases two months ago, did any one tell, WHO ?

GALLUP is primarily a political analytics company. It would be like using a rock to analyze a persons blood flow.
I am not certain they have the right tools in their toolbox.

 

[jobo]

GALLUP is primarily a political analytics company. It would be like using a rock to analyze a persons blood flow.
I am not certain they have the right tools in their toolbox.

gallop are data gathering and analysis experts, ask them to design a system of data gathering that represents reality in any field and they will do so

then and only then give that data to the scientist to do the analysis, it doesn't matter how brilliant you are, if the data is inaccurate your projections will also be such, gathering data from a small population under your control ( like a medical study) is one thing, gather data from a large population you will never see is quite another skill entirely

 

[dvcochran]

gallop are data gathering and analysis experts, ask them to design a system of data gathering that represents reality in any field and they will do so

then and only then give that data to the scientist to do the analysis, it doesn't matter how brilliant you are, if the data is inaccurate your projections will also be such

True, but they have to know what to values to analyze and how to weight/score the values. This is where the unknowns are.
I think there may be some "paralysis by analysis" going on.

 

[jobo]

True, but they have to know what to values to analyze and how to weight/score the values. This is where the unknowns are.
I think there may be some "paralysis by analysis" going on.

of course they do, give them five years to sort it out, which isnt difficult for a pandemic WHO themselves have been predicting for 40 years

my issue is the complete lack of preparation for a predictable event, not that they could have done better, once they reached the point of being in the middle of something they had complexly failed to prepare for

even then gallop would probably have done better, it couldn't be worse

 

[Gerry Seymour]

gallop are data gathering and analysis experts, ask them to design a system of data gathering that represents reality in any field and they will do so

then and only then give that data to the scientist to do the analysis, it doesn't matter how brilliant you are, if the data is inaccurate your projections will also be such, gathering data from a small population under your control ( like a medical study) is one thing, gather data from a large population you will never see is quite another skill entirely

They could do that. It'd probably take them significantly longer than 6 months to put it into action.

 

[jobo]

They could do that. It'd probably take them significantly longer than 6 months to put it into action.

see above, they had forty years to prepared if someone had bother to ask them how it could be done and to get ready to do it

even with no notice they have abilities to quickly find a representative population, a quick telephone survey of 5,000 people would have given a much more accurate indication of the spread of the disease than anybody actually has

once the law of big numbers is enacted you can start making good projections

 

[Gerry Seymour]

see above, they had forty years to prepared if someone had bother to ask them how it could be done and to get ready to do it

even with no notice they have abilities to quickly find a representative population, a quick telephone survey of 5,000 people would have given a much more accurate indication of the spread of the disease than anybody actually has

once the law of big numbers is enacted you can start making good projections

They haven't had 40 years of access to this disjointed data. Remember that the WHO doesn't have the luxury of mandating how data is collected.

 

[Flying Crane]

A bunch of states in the US are showing spikes now in infection rates and hospitalizations. Some areas are becoming quite alarmed at the trend, they could be in for a bad time pretty soon. The timing of these spikes is consistent with their reopening history and the mass gatherings during Memorial Day weekend.

Disregard social distancing and mask wearing at your peril. It’s not a good time to get back into activities that bring people into close proximity and get them all breathing hard with exertion. This virus is still very much with us, it has not gone away. For some bizarre reason that escapes me, our nation has just gotten bored of it all and decided to carry on as if everything is awesome. Make-believe can be fun, I guess. But the deaths are very real.

 

[jobo]

They haven't had 40 years of access to this disjointed data. Remember that the WHO doesn't have the luxury of mandating how data is collected.

they have had v40 years to prepare and WHO has the ability to specify and agree with governments in advance which data will be collected and how

If your saying that this has been done, then show some indication of this, if they never bothered to agree in advance its indicative of systemic failure to think it through

 

[jobo]

A bunch of states in the US are showing spikes now in infection rates and hospitalizations. Some areas are becoming quite alarmed at the trend, they could be in for a bad time pretty soon. The timing of these spikes is consistent with their reopening history and the mass gatherings during Memorial Day weekend.

Disregard social distancing and mask wearing at your peril. It’s not a good time to get back into activities that bring people into close proximity and get them all breathing hard with exertion. This virus is still very much with us, it has not gone away. For some bizarre reason that escapes me, our nation has just gotten bored of it all and decided to carry on as if everything is awesome. Make-believe can be fun, I guess. But the deaths are very real.

the latest figure for the uk, if you can take any notice at all ? is that infection rate is one in 1700 people, thats close to 0.005%, im not convinced that it was ever much greater than that, but as nobody was measuring we may never know

 

[Gerry Seymour]

they have had v40 years to prepare and WHO has the ability to specify and agree with governments in advance which data will be collected and how

If your saying that this has been done, then show some indication of this, if they never bothered to agree in advance its indicative of systemic failure to think it through

They can provide specifications. They have no power to require compliance. Countries mostly gather information for their own purposes.

 

[jobo]

They can provide specifications. They have no power to require compliance. Countries mostly gather information for their own purposes.

and if they havent issue a specification, then they have been negligent, if they have a d government have ignored it then they have been negligent, either way someone has caused thousands of unnecessary deaths, that is def8netly teue in this country, probebly elsewhere

 

[Gerry Seymour]

the latest figure for the uk, if you can take any notice at all ? is that infection rate is one in 1700 people, thats close to 0.005%, im not convinced that it was ever much greater than that, but as nobody was measuring we may never know

Given the mortality rate in the UK (perh Johns Hopkins) is 62.21 per 100K population (.06221%) that seems high for an ongoing infection rate of.0588% (1/1700) - it suggests a higher mortality rate among the infected than I'd understood.

Please check my math on that - I did it in a hurry, and one or the other of us messed up the percentages on 1/1700.

 

[jobo]

Given the mortality rate in the UK (perh Johns Hopkins) is 62.21 per 100K population (.06221%) that seems high for an ongoing infection rate of.0588% (1/1700) - it suggests a higher mortality rate among the infected than I'd understood.

Please check my math on that - I did it in a hurry, and one or the other of us messed up the percentages on 1/1700.

well just to ram home the fault, that because they targeted the wrong groups, locking health peple up, whilst allowing , no additional protection for care homes and vulrable adults in the communit, y, which if they had halg decent data they would have tealised very quickly

did it in my head so not impissible im out

 

[Gerry Seymour]

well just to ram home the fault, that because they targeted the wrong groups, locking health peple up, whilst allowing , no additional protection for care homes and vulrable adults in the communit, y, which if they had halg decent data they would have tealised very quickly

did it in my head so not impissible im out

I think a lot of countries got caught more flat-footed on this than we'd like them to. Similar situation with care homes here.

 

[Kung Fu Wang]

I find it's very funny to do partner training with distance.

- Both of us have face mask on.
- We keep 6 feet apart.
- When my opponent punch me, I block his invisible arm in the thin air.
- He grabs my invisible blocking arm in the thin air, and ...

I can almost feel that I'll going to develop "no touch MA".

 

[_Simon_]

We've had massive spikes in our state, ever since the new easing of restrictions, recently there's been a total of 25 new cases recorded in the state today, up from 13 on Friday, 18 on Thursday and 21 on Wednesday. Prior to this it was single digits and pretty low.

We were planning to ease restrictions on Monday but that's been delayed and we're now back to tighter restrictions :s

From midnight tomorrow until midnight on Sunday, July 12, gatherings in peoples' homes can include no more people than the residents and up to five guests. It was 20 people recently. Cafes, restaurants etc were going to go from 20 to 50 patrons allowed but that's delayed too.

More than half the cases have been through family-to-family transmission, people who were sick that still went to large family gatherings, and also people still going to work when sick.

We're in for a ride... :s

 

[Gerry Seymour]

We've had massive spikes in our state, ever since the new easing of restrictions, recently there's been a total of 25 new cases recorded in the state today, up from 13 on Friday, 18 on Thursday and 21 on Wednesday. Prior to this it was single digits and pretty low.

We were planning to ease restrictions on Monday but that's been delayed and we're now back to tighter restrictions :s

From midnight tomorrow until midnight on Sunday, July 12, gatherings in peoples' homes can include no more people than the residents and up to five guests. It was 20 people recently. Cafes, restaurants etc were going to go from 20 to 50 patrons allowed but that's delayed too.

More than half the cases have been through family-to-family transmission, people who were sick that still went to large family gatherings, and also people still going to work when sick.

We're in for a ride... :s

There's an uptick in our state, too. Not that dramatic (though it looks like some other US states may be headed that way), but it's worrying. Folks are starting to have gatherings again - my mom's having a Father's Day gathering for my step-dad, but we won't be going. If it's anything like a normal family gathering, there will be something like 15 people there, and that still seems a bad idea. And my mom is immuno-compromised (liver transplant, so on immunosuppressants). She really shouldn't be doing this.

 

[_Simon_]

There's an uptick in our state, too. Not that dramatic (though it looks like some other US states may be headed that way), but it's worrying. Folks are starting to have gatherings again - my mom's having a Father's Day gathering for my step-dad, but we won't be going. If it's anything like a normal family gathering, there will be something like 15 people there, and that still seems a bad idea. And my mom is immuno-compromised (liver transplant, so on immunosuppressants). She really shouldn't be doing this.

Yeah wow... I knew it would be inevitable that there would be increases in breakouts, but I wonder at what point it becomes out of control. Good call not going... but yeah, hoping your family is safe.

 

[jobo]

Yeah wow... I knew it would be inevitable that there would be increases in breakouts, but I wonder at what point it becomes out of control. Good call not going... but yeah, hoping your family is safe.

as ive said several times before, the infection rate is a very poor indicator of how much of a problem there is, you really need to wait a week or two and see if the seriously ill /dead rate increases markedly, theres a fairly good chance that most of those are are particularly vulnerable have all ready been seriously ill. as it only really advisedly effects a very small % of the population, each serious case reduces those left to be infected, so the death should reduce even if infections rise, its also a fair assumption that those with serious immune/respiratory problems havent been out pulling statues down, or or that the young people who have dont live with grand ma


more testing means more confirm infections, its always going to increase and as ive also said several times viruses evolve to become less likely to make you seriously ill, as a general rule, , a state of play that can only be seen with some time