US miscalculates China military growth: study

[Bill Mattocks]

The people of this country need to throw the Ring of Power into the Crack of Doom before Sauron's eye (visualize it on top of the Washington Monument) turns upon them.

I am not a member of the 'Blame America First' Brigade and never will be. We do lots of things wrong. I wish we did more things right. But I live in the world we have and not the one we wish we had. China is a growing threat today. We deal with that. And that's the end of it as far as I'm concerned.

This 'oh gosh oh gee see how awful we' are nonsense is going to get us apologizing to our enemies as they kill us. I won't play that game. You play it if it makes you feel better.

It's like the argument I had with my brother-in-law when he said that we deserved to have soldiers being killed in Afghanistan because we're not supposed to be there. Let's make it clear; whether we are supposed to be there or not, we are there. When a US soldier gets killed there, I am not going to blame us; period. Not now, not ever. And you can post all the links you like to how awful it all is; I'm not going to look at them.

 

[Gemini]

Though I hope you're wrong, I take some of this with a grain of salt. As you, I try to focus on only facts and filter out the fabrication. Unfortunately, I have yet to read an article about their growing military might that doesn't reflect a bias one way or the other.

Your initial article would indicate that we have been caught almost completely off guard, yet I've read articles on different aspects of this topic back to '08, which just by their existence, would indicate that probably is not accurate. Some articles indicate that the Chinese have indeed passed us in areas such as submarine technology, followed shortly after by a report that says their technology is decades behind us. Same with their supposed 5th gen. "Stealth" fighter. Who's actually seen one? To my knowledge, there's no hard evidence to support one even really exists. Navy might? Define might. I don't think it's even their intent to match us in the open waters, as much as coastal conflicts. You could come up with military strategies all day long that could support either's claim to superiority.

I'm not saying this isn't a cause for concern, or that much of the information you've provided isn't enlightening. I'm just saying I'm not ready to blow the dust out of the old bomb shelter just yet. My personal opinion is that China has a very clear long term plan that involves "adjusting" their borders, compiling assets and other less than pleasant business that will no doubt involve us at some point. But so are we. They're certainly strategically moving pieces on the chess board. But so are we. On the shorter term, I would agree with many here that recognize it's not in either ours or theirs interest to cause friction any time soon. Given the general public doesn't even know the cards in our own hand, I wouldn't count us out just yet.

 

[Bill Mattocks]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703808704576061674166905408.html

BEIJING—The first clear pictures of what appears to be a Chinese stealth fighter prototype have been published online, highlighting China's military buildup just days before U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates heads to Beijing to try to repair defense ties.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12266973

China stealth fighter 'copied parts from downed US jet'
The technology behind China's J-20 stealth fighter may have come from a US plane shot down during the Kosovo war, Balkan military sources say.

Adm Davor Domazet-Loso, Croatia's military chief of staff at the time, claims Chinese agents took parts of a downed F-117 stealth jet in 1999.

The F-117 had been shot down by a Serbian anti-aircraft missile during a Nato bombing raid.

China's J-20 stealth fighter had its first test flight earlier this month.

http://defensetech.org/2012/04/03/china-has-a-second-j-20-stealth-fighter/

China Has a Second J-20 Stealth Fighter
Well, it looks like the J-20 stealth fighter we showed you yesterday is indeed China’s second stealth jet.
The pic above shows a new serial number ending in 02 for the plane, identifying it as the second J-20. The first — unveiled in late 2010 — has the serial number of 2001 written on the nose (shown below).
No one outside of China is certain just what these planes are designed to do. Given their size, one could infer that they are either high-speed interceptors — like the MiG-25 — or they are long-range fast strike jets like the F-111.


Read more: http://defensetech.org/2012/04/03/china-has-a-second-j-20-stealth-fighter/#ixzz1rIUjzjyt
Defense.org

 

[Gemini]

All these articles say pretty much the same thing as the articles I've read previously. The Chinese claim to have a stealth fighter, the J-20. Yep. There it is. I'm absolutely convinced the Chinese have a plane identified as the J-20. While clearly there is a plane, there's nothing confirming in any article that it is in fact a true stealth fighter, or that it incorporates true stealth technology. Claim? Yes. Confirm? No.

I could be wrong, but I need more than a mock up picture and an enormous boast to be convinced. It strikes me more as the Soviet claim (70's?) that their (then) new Mig-25 boasted the same capabilities as our F-15. While it appeared to be identical, performance wise it wasn't even close. I have a real hard time believing that the Chinese could simply "reverse engineer" a stealth fighter from a few parts of a first generation F-117 and match our accomplishments in the F-22.

Again, I don't want to dismiss the advances the Chinese have clearly made or the momentum they're carrying, but let's keep it real.

 

[Bill Mattocks]

All these articles say pretty much the same thing as the articles I've read previously. The Chinese claim to have a stealth fighter, the J-20. Yep. There it is. I'm absolutely convinced the Chinese have a plane identified as the J-20. While clearly there is a plane, there's nothing confirming in any article that it is in fact a true stealth fighter, or that it incorporates true stealth technology, or that it even flies. Claim? Yes. Confirm? No.

I could be wrong, but I need more than a mock up picture and an enormous boast to be convinced. It strikes me more as the Soviet claim (70's?) that their (then) new Mig-25 boasted the same capabilities as our F-15. While it appeared to be identical, performance wise it wasn't even close. I have a real hard time believing that the Chinese could simply "reverse engineer" a stealth fighter from a few parts of a first generation F-117 and match our accomplishments in the F-22.

Again, I don't want to dismiss the advances the Chinese have clearly made or the momentum they're carrying, but let's keep it real.

I think we have a difference in opinion over what a 'mock up' is. This is a real plane, it really flies. The photos prove that at least two of the planes exist. China has planned to build many more of them; that's no secret. The only real secrets are the timetable (which appears to be running considerably ahead of the announced schedule) and the capability. I agree we don't know how capable these planes are.

However, you claimed there was no proof they exist at all. They exist.

In any case, China is doing more than building a few fighter planes. We hardly depend upon our few stealth fighters for our military might, and neither does China.

As to waiting until China proves how capable it is militarily before getting worried enough to take action, I think that kind of thinking got us Pearl Harbor. No, I don't think China is about to attack us, I don't even think China is planning to attack us in the future; but I do think they want to be able to confront and defeat us if they feel they have to, and that they are taking many steps in that direction as fast as they can manage it. I think waiting until the threat is proven before taking steps to ameliorate it is stupid.

 

[Gemini]

I think we have a difference in opinion over what a 'mock up' is. This is a real plane, it really flies. The photos prove that at least two of the planes exist. China has planned to build many more of them; that's no secret. The only real secrets are the timetable (which appears to be running considerably ahead of the announced schedule) and the capability. I agree we don't know how capable these planes are.

However, you claimed there was no proof they exist at all. They exist.

Let me clarify. The J-20 does exist. No dispute. My dispute is about what it is. They claim stealth. Prove it. In other articles I've read, they've claimed it has all the capabilities of the F-22 from high speed performance to weapons systems. Yea, okay. Just press the "Easy" button and wha la! Why didn't we think of that? No proof required. You did correct me in that the plane did have its first flight recently. But that tells us what? That it's gen 5 stealth? No. Not even close.

In any case, China is doing more than building a few fighter planes. We hardly depend upon our few stealth fighters for our military might, and neither does China.

Agreed, but this seems to have focused on the planes. Regardless, as many of the articles you've provided have suggested, though China has drastically increased their defense spending, it's still well below ours. To your point, there are many ingredients that make up a winning strategy. Technology is a huge ingredient.

As to waiting until China proves how capable it is militarily before getting worried enough to take action, I think that kind of thinking got us Pearl Harbor. No, I don't think China is about to attack us, I don't even think China is planning to attack us in the future; but I do think they want to be able to confront and defeat us if they feel they have to, and that they are taking many steps in that direction as fast as they can manage it. I think waiting until the threat is proven before taking steps to ameliorate it is stupid.

I would agree, but we're not waiting. Correct me if I'm wrong, but even the F-22 is scheduled to be cancelled because of the advances in the F-35. We're hardly sitting still. Maybe a wake up call is just what we needed.

 

[Xue Sheng]

Though I hope you're wrong, I take some of this with a grain of salt. As you, I try to focus on only facts and filter out the fabrication. Unfortunately, I have yet to read an article about their growing military might that doesn't reflect a bias one way or the other.

Your initial article would indicate that we have been caught almost completely off guard, yet I've read articles on different aspects of this topic back to '08, which just by their existence, would indicate that probably is not accurate.

Exactly

There is an entire book Cyber War by Robert K Knake that was published in 2010 that talks abot Chinese military build up and its view of both cyberwar and a ground war with the USA and if those who wrote that article read that book they may not have been surprised. Now if Mr Knake knew about this way back in 2010 and likely before when he was writing his book I am guessing that the US Governement knew as well. This is why I have said at least twice in this thread why I do not understand why the USA was surprised. And like I said a few years back right here on MT, the Chinese military was more powerful that many thought. And if I knew (and old broken down MAist) I am willing to bet BIG money that the US Government knew as well.

Oh and by the way when you are talking Cyber War there are only 3 big players out there 1) America 2) Russia 3) China. In that order

 

[Makalakumu]

I am not a member of the 'Blame America First' Brigade and never will be...Insert Propaganda Here...And you can post all the links you like to how awful it all is; I'm not going to look at them.

There, I fixed that for you. :angel:

There's no need to contest anything with China. I think we could take a defensive posture throughout the world and trade peacefully on even footing as long as we wanted.

 

[oftheherd1]

...

Oh and by the way when you are talking Cyber War there are only 3 big players out there 1) America 2) Russia 3) China. In that order

That's very interesting. It doesn't jive with what I have been reading. I think Russia would be first. It appears they have already used cyber warfare in a war. China would be second. They have been reported as using cyber attacks as well, but not in a war. They are probably stealing information and attempting to position themselves to destroy infrastructure and damage our own use of technology. We may be doing things as well, that are not reported, good for us considering. BTW, I don't think there are only 3 main players. I wish, but I don't believe.

Everybody gets to read what they want, and form their own opinions. I believe we are under serious threat. If China, or even Russia with Putin, feel the same, sounds like we all need to look back at history. Will they, or us? only time will tell.

 

[Xue Sheng]

That's very interesting. It doesn't jive with what I have been reading. I think Russia would be first. It appears they have already used cyber warfare in a war. China would be second. They have been reported as using cyber attacks as well, but not in a war. They are probably stealing information and attempting to position themselves to destroy infrastructure and damage our own use of technology. We may be doing things as well, that are not reported, good for us considering. BTW, I don't think there are only 3 main players. I wish, but I don't believe.

Everybody gets to read what they want, and form their own opinions. I believe we are under serious threat. If China, or even Russia with Putin, feel the same, sounds like we all need to look back at history. Will they, or us? only time will tell.

Yes Russia have used it, so has China, Israelis and North Korea and I believe the US has too. The rating is not based on who is biggest dog out there not on who has used it of course it is also from 2010 and 2 years in the cyber world is a long time

 

[Bill Mattocks]

So what I'm reading in this thread is...

A) China is not really that big of a threat.
B) And we know all about it anyway.

Think about that one. I know irony is hard to handle first thing in the morning, but try it anyway.

 

[Xue Sheng]

So what I'm reading in this thread is...

A) China is not really that big of a threat.
B) And we know all about it anyway.

Think about that one. I know irony is hard to handle first thing in the morning, but try it anyway.

Bill if you are basing any of that on what I wrote you got it wrong, but then at times I suspect you do this intentionally to keep the thread tension going.

China is a potential threat but I am not sure China will ever take it there and the article is likely wrong as it applies to the US being taken by surprise by Chinese Military Build up...that or you actually believe that the author of Cyber War and I know more about it that the US Government does.

You are looking at the whole thing from only one side of the coin through the culture in which you grew up in, and that is normal sunce the Chinese are doing the same exact thing only from thier side of the coin and through thier culture so if you ask either side who is right they will both say they are and from thier perspective they are and sitting there telling the US they are wrong or tell China they are wrong gets us nowhere.

But regardless I doubt the US was taken by surprise by the build up, They may have been taken by surprise at the overt show Beijing has been using these days however since they never did that before.

As to China and Cyber war they, like jsut about everyone else in teh game look at cyber warfare as unrestricted warfare. However the Chinese military has extended that to since cyber warfare is unrestricted ALL warfare is unrestricted and that is a bit scary but I would not be surprised if the Russians are there as well.

 

[Gemini]

So what I'm reading in this thread is...

A) China is not really that big of a threat.

No one here has said that. China does pose a threat and has for decades. I don't see anyone disputing that. But you're indicating we should get ready to adandon the perch. That we're powerless to slow the inevitable that is the Chinese juggernaut. I'm not quit ready to listen to a doomsday sermon just yet. I think you're thread also addresses this in a vaccumn which in itself cannot bridge the huge gap from China catching us off guard to learning to speak Chinese. There are a lot of other variables that must be addressed before you can bridge that gap. For instance, in what world would these 2 super powers clash with all other nations on the sidelines. Another important ingredient.

B) And we know all about it anyway.
Maybe, maybe not. But we haven't maintained our position in the world by blindly meandering through it. We have been surprised at times, lazy and even misguided, but I think your initial article indicates a level of surprise that smacks of the same bias every other article I've read does.

but then at times I suspect you do this intentionally to keep the thread tension going.

I do too, but he's very good at it.

 

[oftheherd1]

Yes Russia have used it, so has China, Israelis and North Korea and I believe the US has too. The rating is not based on who is biggest dog out there not on who has used it of course it is also from 2010 and 2 years in the cyber world is a long time

I agree there are others who are playing, or trying to play in the cyber warfare arena. But I wasn't sure if what you meant above was that the rating was based on who was the biggest dog, and that we were. I guess I would be curious what was meant by biggest: population, engagement in cyber war attacks, people engaged it cyber warfare, or effectiveness of a country's cyber warfare? I don't know that I would put the USA in the top on any of those categories, but I would like to.

...

As to China and Cyber war they, like jsut about everyone else in teh game look at cyber warfare as unrestricted warfare. However the Chinese military has extended that to since cyber warfare is unrestricted ALL warfare is unrestricted and that is a bit scary but I would not be surprised if the Russians are there as well.

I wasn't aware either had stopped considering war to be restricted. Of course, we did some questionable things in WWII as well, such as fire bombing. A tenuous case might be made for it in Japan where there was a lot of cottage industry, but I'm not aware there was much if any of that in Germany.

 

[Xue Sheng]

I agree there are others who are playing, or trying to play in the cyber warfare arena. But I wasn't sure if what you meant above was that the rating was based on who was the biggest dog, and that we were. I guess I would be curious what was meant by biggest: population, engagement in cyber war attacks, people engaged it cyber warfare, or effectiveness of a country's cyber warfare? I don't know that I would put the USA in the top on any of those categories, but I would like to.



I wasn't aware either had stopped considering war to be restricted. Of course, we did some questionable things in WWII as well, such as fire bombing. A tenuous case might be made for it in Japan where there was a lot of cottage industry, but I'm not aware there was much if any of that in Germany.

The biggest was meant to say mroe in control of Cyberspace, but that is not necessarily the case. That what the book said and although it was a very good bok yo ucannot forget that it was writtine by an American form an American POV.

As to unrestricted warfare I believe it was China's POV that Cyber warfare is unresstricted and thereby all warfare is now unrestricted, civilians and civilian targets are all on the list. But That is from one source, a good one, but still just one.