US miscalculates China military growth: study

[Bill Mattocks]

Well, duh. What have I been saying? We are going to pay a dear price for ignoring China's growing military might.

http://www.spacewar.com/reports/US_miscalculates_China_military_growth_study_999.html

The United States has underestimated the growth of China's military as policymakers have taken public statements at face value or failed to understand Beijing's thinking, a study said Thursday.

The report prepared for the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission said the United States had a mixed record on predicting the rising power's new weaponry, including largely missing the emergence of more advanced submarines.

As for the speed of military modernization, the study found "identifiable cases of miscalculation" with China developing anti-ship ballistic missiles and stealth fighter-jets earlier than the United States expected.

US analysis could have improved if more experts read Chinese or even looked at open publications such as academic technical journals, it said.

We're idiots. We deserve what we're going to get. Learn to speak Chinese, morons. Your kids will be speaking it. By law.

 

[Xue Sheng]

The interesting thing is China said, right after the gulfwar, I think Gulf War 1, that they had miss calculated the US military strength and needed to change. They did not believe their original strategy would work of overwhelming numbers, so they started doing things differently, like growing their navy. Last I read they now feel that by 2015 will be able to defeat the USA should it ever come to that. And they did not keep that a secret either so I do not understand the surprise. As a note, historically China has never cared about expanding its borders beyond what its historical view of China, which by the way includes Tibet, Vietnam, Korea and now Taiwan based on the nationalist that went there.

I also said in a post here on MT a few years back that the Chinese Military was much more formidable than most people thought and that China was very happy to let every other country in the world believe that their military was of no consequence. However the recent display of the Carrier buster missile has me a bit concerned as to what China is actually doing since, if again you look at this based on history, China has never flaunted its military might, China tended to keep things secret but that missile changed things, could just be sabre rattling, who knows. But they never did much of that before either

However a friend of mine recently pointed out that China likely does not want war with the US, it just wants superiority. They currently have WAY to much financial interest and connecting to us to want a war with us... I hope he is right

 

[Bill Mattocks]

However a friend of mine recently pointed out that China likely does not want war with the US, it just wants superiority. They currently have WAY to much financial interest and connecting to us to want a war with us... I hope he is right

Let me put it this way. If your landlord comes to your door for the rent, and you refuse to pay or haven't got the money to pay, your landlord has options, including the use of force to have you put out via eviction. Now imagine a day in the future when the US defaults on its debts, including those to China. Would China prefer to be in a situation where they have to eat it, or would they prefer to have some options, including being to credibly threaten us with force?

China has also been making it clear that they intend to revisit old disputes about various territory in the Pacific Rim that are in dispute; they want it. From small islands and fishing / mineral rights to Taiwan.

And of course, China is making huge forays into Africa and South America. Making friends with countries that we do not get along with. North Korea basically still exists because China at least partially covers their bets; now imagine when Hugo Chavez does something very very stupid and we want to take action, but China says "Oh, no you don't," and can back it up?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People's_Republic_of_China_–_Venezuela_relations

People's Republic of China-Venezuela relations have seen an increasing partnership between the government of the Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez (President since 1998) and the People's Republic of China. Sino-Venezuelan trade was less than $500m per year before 1999, and reached $7.5bn in 2009, making China Venezuela's second-largest trade partner,[1] and Venezuela China's biggest investment destination in Latin America. Various bilateral deals have seen China invest billions in Venezuela, and Venezuela increase exports of oil and other resources to China.

China is no different than the USA, and is behaving exactly as we would in their position. They are increasing their influence and involvement overseas, securing mineral, oil, and other assets that they do not have domestically, and protecting those interests in a variety of ways, including militarily.

We have been complete idiots to ignore that. People who kept playing it down and pooh-poohing China's growing might were seriously incorrect in their analysis. This will bite us in the ***, I'm certain of that.

No, I do not think China is about to attack us; they'd damage their investment. But when they call their notes and end up owning us, they will have the 'sheriff' at the door with them to enforce their judgment against us and take possession of the property. Learn to speak Chinese; your kids will.

 

[Xue Sheng]

China has also been making it clear that they intend to revisit old disputes about various territory in the Pacific Rim that are in dispute; they want it. From small islands and fishing / mineral rights to Taiwan.

Thank you Hillary Clinton. She is the one that started the whole small Island issue by her saying the exact wrong thing in Vietnam. As for Taiwan, China is a bit more insidious there. Find out who the most powerful political party is there...now find out who their biggest funds contributor is

And of course, China is making huge forays into Africa and South America. Making friends with countries that we do not get along with. North Korea basically still exists because China at least partially covers their bets; now imagine when Hugo Chavez does something very very stupid and we want to take action, but China says "Oh, no you don't," and can back it up?

Not saying the Hugo Chavez bit is not a possibility but I think there is much more to it than that and I am not so sure they would back Hugo on something like they are inclined to in Korea, even though they really do not get along with Korea or trust it much. They just don't like the fact we are that close. I give them this, when we had naval war games with japan off Korea China was upset and the US response was that they were just war games so it was no big deal. The Chinese response was, OK we will get together with Cuba and have war games in the Gulf and based on your response to us I guess the USA will not mind...I have to admit...they have a point on that one.

China is no different than the USA, and is behaving exactly as we would in their position. They are increasing their influence and involvement overseas, securing mineral, oil, and other assets that they do not have domestically, and protecting those interests in a variety of ways, including militarily.

Well they have tried on more than one occasion to buy oil refineries only to be told no because OPEC feared that China would mess up their control and really mess up their pricing. Heck when they went to China and opened up gas stations for all the cars there China was told that the pricing would be..... and China said no it won't, you want our business you want us to stay out of oil...then the prices will be what WE tell you they will be...and they got their way.

They were the 300 pound Gorilla then and are becoming the 500 pound Gorilla now

We have been complete idiots to ignore that. People who kept playing it down and pooh-poohing China's growing might were seriously incorrect in their analysis. This will bite us in the ***, I'm certain of that.

No argument there and that just adds to my shock that we are shocked at all, they did not exactly keep much of this secert as they would have done in the past.

No, I do not think China is about to attack us; they'd damage their investment. But when they call their notes and end up owning us, they will have the 'sheriff' at the door with them to enforce their judgment against us and take possession of the property. Learn to speak Chinese; your kids will.

Agree mostly, but I am not so sure about the sheriff, that also is not in thier best finacial interests.... as for the last bit, my kids already speak Chinese

 

[WC_lun]

Bill, I think you are supposing a lot of things happening that just are not likely. Will China do some saber rattling in regards to Taiwan and possibly Tibet? Probably. Will they really want to get into a shooting war with the US...or even a cold war. Not very likely, for a mulitude of reasons. It just isn't in China's best interest, or ours. The funny thing is, if we had refrained some needless wars ourselves, we would still have both advantage and the money to get greater advantage if need be. I think you fear of China is a bit much.

 

[Bill Mattocks]

Thank you Hillary Clinton. She is the one that started the whole small Island issue by her saying the exact wrong thing in Vietnam. As for Taiwan, China is a bit more insidious there. Find out who the most powerful political party is there...now find out who their biggest funds contributor is

Not saying the Hugo Chavez bit is not a possibility but I think there is much more to it than that and I am not so sure they would back Hugo on something like they are inclined to in Korea, even though they really do not get along with Korea or trust it much. They just don't like the fact we are that close. I give them this, when we had naval war games with japan off Korea China was upset and the US response was that they were just war games so it was no big deal. The Chinese response was, OK we will get together with Cuba and have war games in the Gulf and based on your response to us I guess the USA will not mind...I have to admit...they have a point on that one.

Well they have tried on more than one occasion to buy oil refineries only to be told no because OPEC feared that China would mess up their control and really mess up their pricing. Heck when they went to China and opened up gas stations for all the cars there China was told that the pricing would be..... and China said no it won't, you want our business you want us to stay out of oil...then the prices will be what WE tell you they will be...and they got their way.

They were the 300 pound Gorilla then and are becoming the 500 pound Gorilla now

No argument there and that just adds to my shock that we are shocked at all, they did not exactly keep much of this secert as they would have done in the past.

Agree mostly, but I am not so sure about the sheriff, that also is not in thier best finacial interests.... as for the last bit, my kids already speak Chinese

I wish I spoke Chinese!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...-4bn-drive-to-buy-Africas-mineral-wealth.html

China's £4bn drive to buy Africa's mineral wealth
China's modern-day "Scramble for Africa" to buy up the continent's mineral wealth enters a new phase this week.

http://www.dailyfinance.com/2010/06/14/china-us-afghanistan-mineral-mining/

China, Not U.S., Likely to Benefit from Afghanistan's Mineral Riches
Although the U.S. government has spent more than $940 billion on the conflict in Afghanistan since 2001, a treasure trove of mineral deposits, including vast quantities of industrial metals such as lithium, gold, cobalt, copper and iron, are likely to wind up going to Russia and China instead of American firms.

http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/china_gold_063020108

AFTER buying mineral rights and backing new mines across West Africa and Latin America, the Chinese state is buying gold from a new Gold Mining project in Alaska, USA, newswires report.

The deal between state-owned China National Gold – the largest Gold Mining producer in China – and the New York/Toronto-listed Coeur d'Alene miner will see it buy and process gold concentrate from the north-west US state's Kensington site, estimated to hold 1.5 million ounces of gold reserves.

China National Gold operates around 60 Gold Mining projects in China – now the world's No.1 producer nation – and accounts for over a fifth of Chinese output. It also owns and operates smelting and refining plants said to be "world-class" by Coeur's director of corporate communications, Tony Ebersole.

http://www.mysanantonio.com/business/local/article/China-stakes-claim-to-S-Texas-oil-gas-858329.php

China stakes claim to S. Texas oil, gas
CNOOC's deal with Chesapeake Energy is the largest purchase of an interest in U.S. energy assets by a Chinese company. Chinese investment will boost South Texas drilling Slideshow: China's hunger for energy
By Monica Hatcher
Published 01:15 a.m., Tuesday, October 12, 2010

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37577656/ns/business-oil_and_energy/t/china-reaps-benefits-iraq-war/

China reaps benefits of Iraq war
Five oil project have been awarded to critic of invasion
WASIT, Iraq — Perspiration staining their orange jumpsuits, the Chinese engineers and laborers form Al-Waha Oil Co. work alongside their Iraqi counterparts under a sweltering sun readying an expanse of arid land southeast of Baghdad for infrastructure to extract and carry the viscous liquid on which Iraq's future lies: oil.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...ons-as-local-industry-expands-sipri-says.html

China's Share of Global Arms Imports Falls, Sipri Says
By Daniel Ten Kate - Mar 18, 2012 7:00 PM ET

China, the world’s top weapons importer for much of the past decade, fell to fourth from second on an annual list from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute as it produces more arms at home.

China received 5 percent of the volume of international transfers of “major conventional weapons” from 2007 to 2011, Sipri said in a report released today. The total was half that of India, which last year overtook China as the world’s largest recipient of arms, and less than South Korea and Pakistan.
“In certain sectors such as combat aircraft, with the exception of certain parts like engines, China is able to put together these systems largely from their own indigenous base now,” Paul Holtom, director of Sipri’s arms transfer program, said by phone. “India is still struggling there.”

China is set to increase military spending 11 percent this year as rising economic interests, territorial disputes and expanding global commitments drive demand for warships, missiles and fighter jets. Defense outlays of more than $100 billion per year are second only to the U.S., which along with Europe has maintained an arms embargo against the leadership in Beijing since a 1989 crackdown against protesters.

http://rthk.hk/rthk/news/englishnews/20120316/news_20120316_56_826254.htm

China buys more US govt debt

16-03-2012
China has increased purchases of US government debt for the first time in half a year. Beijing bought an additional US$8-billion of debt in January, bringing its holdings to US$1.16-trillion. That made it the largest foreign creditor of the US, ahead of Japan, which held a record of just over US$1-trillion in January.

 

[oftheherd1]

...

China is no different than the USA, and is behaving exactly as we would in their position. They are increasing their influence and involvement overseas, securing mineral, oil, and other assets that they do not have domestically, and protecting those interests in a variety of ways, including militarily.

We have been complete idiots to ignore that. People who kept playing it down and pooh-poohing China's growing might were seriously incorrect in their analysis. This will bite us in the ***, I'm certain of that.

No, I do not think China is about to attack us; they'd damage their investment. But when they call their notes and end up owning us, they will have the 'sheriff' at the door with them to enforce their judgment against us and take possession of the property. Learn to speak Chinese; your kids will.

Because of things I apply to get email on, and things I attend, I get a lot of advertisements disguised as conferences and webinars. I often get invitations to conferences or webinars on how to be sucessful in doing business in China. Laws of both the US and China that will apply and how to apply to be more successful. Business in China; brilliant! They get lots of money by exporting goods. Oh, and they get a lot of technology, not just knowhow, but actual product producing plants, at no expense. And of course, we won't have those plants ourselves, since our deals with China will price them out of business.

No, they won't attack us any time soon. But they will any time it suits them, such as nothing more needed,

How can anyone think they are dumb?

 

[Xue Sheng]

I wish I spoke Chinese!

Hey, one even lives there

An interesting thing is currently going on that should be watched as it applies to China's Middle East friends. China has a big problem with a Muslim Province (nothing new by the way) and I believe it is the same sect that most Middle East countries have supported in the past. Now there has been no official statement from any of China's Middle Eastern Friends. Now if they come out in support of the Muslims causing problems in China...then I have to wonder how long that friendship will actually last

 

[Bill Mattocks]

http://nextbigfuture.com/2012/04/economist-looks-at-rise-of-chinas.html

Economist - China is rapidly modernising its armed forces is not in doubt, though there is disagreement about what the true spending figure is. China’s defence budget has almost certainly experienced double digit growth for two decades. According to SIPRI, a research institute, annual defence spending rose from over $30 billion in 2000 to almost $120 billion in 2010. SIPRI usually adds about 50% to the official figure that China gives for its defence spending, because even basic military items such as research and development are kept off budget. Including those items would imply total military spending in 2012, based on the latest announcement from Beijing, will be around $160 billion. America still spends four-and-a-half times as much on defence, but on present trends China’s defence spending could overtake America’s after 2035.

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2012/04/06/2003529620

China modernizing missile brigades
HOT PEACEefense analysts are at odds over what is going on in Fujian Province, but satellite imagery is pointing to deployments of more modern ballistic missiles

http://www.economist.com/node/21552193

AT A meeting of South-East Asian nations in 2010, China’s foreign minister Yang Jiechi, facing a barrage of complaints about his country’s behaviour in the region, blurted out the sort of thing polite leaders usually prefer to leave unsaid. “China is a big country,” he pointed out, “and other countries are small countries and that is just a fact.” Indeed it is, and China is big not merely in terms of territory and population, but also military might. Its Communist Party is presiding over the world’s largest military build-up. And that is just a fact, too—one which the rest of the world is having to come to terms with.
...

But China’s real military strength increasingly lies elsewhere. The Pentagon’s planners think China is intent on acquiring what is called in the jargon A2/AD, or “anti-access/area denial” capabilities. The idea is to use pinpoint ground attack and anti-ship missiles, a growing fleet of modern submarines and cyber and anti-satellite weapons to destroy or disable another nation’s military assets from afar.

In the western Pacific, that would mean targeting or putting in jeopardy America’s aircraft-carrier groups and its air-force bases in Okinawa, South Korea and even Guam. The aim would be to render American power projection in Asia riskier and more costly, so that America’s allies would no longer be able to rely on it to deter aggression or to combat subtler forms of coercion. It would also enable China to carry out its repeated threat to take over Taiwan if the island were ever to declare formal independence.

China’s military build-up is ringing alarm bells in Asia and has already caused a pivot in America’s defence policy. The new “strategic guidance” issued in January by Barack Obama and his defence secretary, Leon Panetta, confirmed what everyone in Washington already knew: that a switch in priorities towards Asia was overdue and under way. The document says that “While the US military will continue to contribute to security globally, we will of necessity rebalance towards the Asia-Pacific region.” America is planning roughly $500 billion of cuts in planned defence spending over the next ten years. But, says the document, “to credibly deter potential adversaries and to prevent them from achieving their objectives, the United States must maintain its ability to project power in areas in which our access and freedom to operate are challenged.”

 

[K-man]

Not to mention the South China Sea.

http://www2.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=21488#

 

[Makalakumu]

Would China build it's military force up as much or as fast if we didn't have 700 military bases spread across the world and spend almost as much on our military as all of the rest of the world's country's combined?

The US is an aggressive empire and this is an obvious response, IMO.

 

[Bill Mattocks]

Would China build it's military force up as much or as fast if we didn't have 700 military bases spread across the world and spend almost as much on our military as all of the rest of the world's country's combined?

The US is an aggressive empire and this is an obvious response, IMO.

Doesn't matter; I deal with what is, not what some think should be. China is the threat to us, not the other way around.

 

[oftheherd1]

Would China build it's military force up as much or as fast if we didn't have 700 military bases spread across the world and spend almost as much on our military as all of the rest of the world's country's combined?

The US is an aggressive empire and this is an obvious response, IMO.

Since we have been cutting back on our military for some time now, both in personnel and material, why would they choose these times to expand? Doesn't seem to make sense from that point of view does it?

Doesn't matter; I deal with what is, not what some think should be. China is the threat to us, not the other way around.

And from what I keep hearing, China is moving towards what we and other modern countries have. A military which all have the same material. At one time, they often were supplied by manufacturing in the province they were in. It meant they didn't all have the same (interchangeable) equipment. Not a good way to fight a global war.

 

[Makalakumu]

Doesn't matter; I deal with what is, not what some think should be. China is the threat to us, not the other way around.

You don't think we're a threat to China? Look at a map and start plotting how our military bases and actions are encircling that nation. Ninja please...

 

[Bill Mattocks]

You don't think we're a threat to China? Look at a map and start plotting how our military bases and actions are encircling that nation. Ninja please...

I don't care if we're a threat to China. I live in the USA. Screw them, yay us. Simple stuff here.

If we're doing something wrong in the world that we can realistically set right and end the threat to ourselves, then I hope we do it. But if we do not - and even if I agreed with you that we posed a threat to China, I don't think that will happen - then the end result is I do not care about them as much as I care about us.

 

[Makalakumu]

Since we have been cutting back on our military for some time now, both in personnel and material, why would they choose these times to expand? Doesn't seem to make sense from that point of view does it?

http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/defense_chart_30.html

Even with proposed cuts increases in the future, the US military budget will continue to rise through 2017. I suspect that future cuts will not happen, however.

The seven top military spending countries in the world are listed below.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures

Note the encirclement of China in 2008. It's more complete now.

http://blog.hiddenharmonies.org/2010/08/map-of-u-s-military-bases-around-the-world/

And from what I keep hearing, China is moving towards what we and other modern countries have. A military which all have the same material. At one time, they often were supplied by manufacturing in the province they were in. It meant they didn't all have the same (interchangeable) equipment. Not a good way to fight a global war.

I don't think China wants to fight a global war. It would destroy the world and it would take a century, at least, to recover. This falls in line with a lot of the long term Chinese thinking that I've read. That said, the US is clearly contesting for the globe right now. Looking at the last map I posted, you can clearly see that China (and Russia) is being encircled. The US is actively driving it out of markets in Africa and the Middle East, it's interests are clearly under attack. I feel confident after seeing this data in my opinion that the US is the aggressor and China is defensibly building up it's military.

 

[Makalakumu]

I don't care if we're a threat to China. I live in the USA. Screw them, yay us. Simple stuff here.

If we're doing something wrong in the world that we can realistically set right and end the threat to ourselves, then I hope we do it. But if we do not - and even if I agreed with you that we posed a threat to China, I don't think that will happen - then the end result is I do not care about them as much as I care about us.

The following graphic denotes the places where the US currently stations it's military as of 2008. This has expanded further into Asia and Africa since then.

http://blog.hiddenharmonies.org/2010/08/map-of-u-s-military-bases-around-the-world/

China is being encircled and we are a threat to it.

 

[Bill Mattocks]

The following graphic denotes the places where the US currently stations it's military as of 2008. This has expanded further into Asia and Africa since then.

http://blog.hiddenharmonies.org/2010/08/map-of-u-s-military-bases-around-the-world/

China is being encircled and we are a threat.

We are not a threat to us. Screw them, yay us. I am glad we're where we are.

 

[Xue Sheng]

Doesn't matter; I deal with what is, not what some think should be. China is the threat to us, not the other way around.

That is how you see it but I believe the Chinese see it the other way around, it all depends on your perspective actually. Hell under Mao they were teaching the Chinese people that the US was going to invade them and tha tis why they built underground bunkers all over the place....one is now a mall in Beijing too

and now to all in this thread

And since I do not want to quote every single user I can tell you that what China sees, per its TV news and newspapers is the US in wars all over the place with Military bases everywhere. The Military bases were not all that much of a concern but the wars we got in recently are and the statements that have come out of DC are making Beijing get up and take notice (they view the world through thier culture just like we view it through ours). Basically the Chinese government does not understand why the USA cares about what goes on in another country, outside of the USA. Whether or not they actually see anything the USA is doing as a threat does not really matter, their military locked on it and the government is using it as an excuse to build the military up. And don't forget, or maybe you just did not know, the Chinese military downsized too and then advanced technologically and mechanically so downsizing to them does not necessarily mean we are not powerful or not a threat.

 

[Makalakumu]

We are not a threat to us.

I beg to differ, Bill. All of this militarism will cost US our liberty. There is currently a thread in the study about this.

Then, there is this...

Predator drones being used in North Dakota to aid Law Enforcement.

Have American Police Become Militarized?

A Swarm of Nano Quadrotors

That buzzing sound you hear? You will learn to fear that. Imagine the police state that's going to be created when all of this military technology is used to extract every last penny of wealth to pay for these Imperial adventures.

Militarism always comes home in the form of a Police State. We'll have no freedom and the weapons created for war will eventually be turned on itself. We are a great threat to ourselves as well as everyone else and the sooner people wake up to this...that they are NOT safe from the military industrial complex...the sooner we can have more liberty in our lives.

Screw them, yay us. I am glad we're where we are.

Bill, et all, I have children. I don't want them to go and fight on some imperial adventure. I don't want them to have to pay a significant portion of their wealth and liberty because we screwed up so badly now, ran up the debt, and created monsters everywhere we went with our guns.

The people of this country need to throw the Ring of Power into the Crack of Doom before Sauron's eye (visualize it on top of the Washington Monument) turns upon them.