Strategy vs strength. Which is more important?

Regarding the luck on throws - I think it comes down to the environment. In randori, where you're both playing a throwing game and there's no other variables, 1000 times out of 1000, the inexperienced person his not going to throw the judo black belt. Maybe one time out of 10,000 they will. I know this because I am that inexperienced person, and I've also watched others.

That said, if we're now allowed to strike as well, if the inexperienced thrower is a better striker and knows the basics of some throwing throws (or at least balance), they can use strength to throw them. This depends on how good their striking is though, along with their own balance and timing.

If we now assume that it's not in a dojo setting, but in a street setting, it's an entirely different story. When the fight isn't starting on even terms to begin with, you're busy trying to position yourself safely and being wary of extra people coming out or weapons coming out, it becomes a lot easier to fall prey to a 'lucky' throw.
 
1000 times out of 1000, the inexperienced person his not going to throw the judo black belt.
But that also implies this false choice scenario where everyone is either experienced or inexperienced. The reality is everyone starts building experience on day 1.

So a day 1 student, maybe 1:1 no way. By day 100? The newbie has a small chance, and there's no magic involved, just luck and timing, maybe his senior opponent is a little tired and misses something basic and woosh suddenly all those years of training don't matter.

I think it's important these "skilled/unskilled", "experienced/inexperienced", "master/student" dualities be kept grounded. There are plenty of naturally gifted beginners who do well right out of the gate, even in high school wrestling, who perform well on day 1, and then just get better with time and effort
 
But that also implies this false choice scenario where everyone is either experienced or inexperienced. The reality is everyone starts building experience on day 1.

So a day 1 student, maybe 1:1 no way. By day 100? The newbie has a small chance, and there's no magic involved, just luck and timing, maybe his senior opponent is a little tired and misses something basic and woosh suddenly all those years of training don't matter.

I think it's important these "skilled/unskilled", "experienced/inexperienced", "master/student" dualities be kept grounded. There are plenty of naturally gifted beginners who do well right out of the gate, even in high school wrestling, who perform well on day 1, and then just get better with time and effort
I was referring specifically to the argument of whether or not a new student can get a lucky throw vs. a lucky punch. I've seen students with a month or so of training successfully get a punch on someone with years of experience, without being 'given' the punch. I have not seen the same (in pure randori) happen in judo. By the time someone's had 100 days in training, I would hope they are able to get a throw off every once in a while, but I would also hope that a boxer who's been training for a hundred days is able to do significantly better, comparatively, against the striker.
 
I was referring specifically to the argument of whether or not a new student can get a lucky throw vs. a lucky punch. I've seen students with a month or so of training successfully get a punch on someone with years of experience, without being 'given' the punch. I have not seen the same (in pure randori) happen in judo. By the time someone's had 100 days in training, I would hope they are able to get a throw off every once in a while, but I would also hope that a boxer who's been training for a hundred days is able to do significantly better, comparatively, against the striker.
I think boxing and Judo are great examples of this, you don't need a lot of time to learn, people tend to get it or quit fast. And thankfully both are cheap.

Just full disclosure I'm working on my Judo black belt right now, no real target date but I know it'll happen eventually. In the pipe, 5x5. That or I'll die trying.
 
1000 times out of 1000, the inexperienced person his not going to throw the judo black belt.
I share the same experience with you here. I don't believe Mike Tyson can take down a Judo master in a Judo match.

When one gets old, he may lose power and speed. But he will never lose "listening ability" that's needed in the throwing art.
 
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Power without speed is not that scary. But power plus speed can be deadly.

Machine gun with speed and power doesn't need accuracy.

Yeah it kinda definitely does. That's why they're mounted and usually have recoil compensation because, you guessed it, it needs to be accurate.

just luck and timing, maybe his senior opponent is a little tired and misses something basic and woosh suddenly all those years of training don't matter.

A beginner gets lucky here because his senior is tired. But he's not using luck, it's not in any fighters' toolkit, he doesn't train to be lucky. Does that make sense?
 
So a day 1 student, maybe 1:1 no way. By day 100?
I have a student who has been with me for more than 10 years. Every time we met, we wrestled 15 rounds. The score was always 15-0. One time I moved back, and my foot was caught by a tree root, and I felt down (we wrestled outdoor). He was so happy and jumped up and down after that match.
 
I have a student who has been with me for more than 10 years. Every time we met, we wrestled 15 rounds. The score was always 15-0. One time I moved back, and my foot was caught by a tree root, and I felt down (we wrestled outdoor). He was so happy and jumped up and down after that match.
Would you say your strategy needed to be refined?
 
A beginner gets lucky here because his senior is tired. But he's not using luck, it's not in any fighters' toolkit, he doesn't train to be lucky. Does that make sense?
Luck isn't something you use, it's chance. So it's something that pops in based on circumstance, timing, and randomness.

Point being, anyone here who considere themselves unthreatened by pure chance, should beware.

Training should never instill overconfidence, like the more I train the less I have to worry about new people. Then, that new person is going to be the lucky one.
 
a student who has been with me for more than 10 years. Every time we met, we wrestled 15 rounds. The score was always 15-0. One time I moved back, and my foot was caught by a tree root, and I felt down (we wrestled outdoor). He was so happy and jumped up and down after that match.
Exactly.

Why didn't your training give you the skill to avoid the root?

Why weren't you able to quickly regain your balance? Probably because you were unlucky.
 
Without power and speed though, "listening ability" becomes relatively useless.
Of course, if you have 0 power and 0 speed, nothing will work. you still need some power and some speed.

If you can borrow your opponent's force, you don't need to use much of your own force. In striking art, you may let your opponent to run into your kick/punch. As long as you can remain solid structure, the speed and power can come from your opponent.

How much power do you need to pull your opponent down when he charges in toward you?



In this video,

- when A charges in, B borrows A's force and pull A down.
- When A tries to raise up (against the downward pull), B still borrow A's force and pushes B down.

This is a good example of "listening ability".

- You come, I pull you.
- You go, I push you.

 
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You are right. To train more on uneven surface is a good idea.
How can one be "grounded" if they are not balanced and comfortable on the ground they're standing on? I agree, it's a good idea to train on all types of surfaces - uneven, sloped, wet, rocky, sandy, etc. Along the same lines, it's good to practice in the sun, the dark, in silence and loud noises, restricted spaces and in the open, etc.
 
Of course, if you have 0 power and 0 speed, nothing will work. you still need some power and some speed.

If you can borrow your opponent's force, you don't need to use much of your own force. In striking art, you may let your opponent to run into your kick/punch. As long as you can remain solid structure, the speed and power can come from your opponent.

How much power do you need to pull your opponent down when he charges in toward you?



In this video,

- when A charges in, B borrows A's force and pull A down.
- When A tries to raise up (against the downward pull), B still borrow A's force and pushes B down.

This is a good example of "listening ability".

- You come, I pull you.
- You go, I push you.

So taking this into the BJJ ground and Judo newaza range, those takedowns are good but now you're on the ground, where speed, power and timing become even more important.

The ground control positions are a good example of this. You need some pretty strong power to maintain positions like kesa gatame (side control, "scarf hold" etc). And "listening control" too.

Otherwise you get flipped, reversed etc. this is a major element of basic highschool wrestling.

With all those things in place you can pin someone for a long time. To maintain it you need to listen, sometimes power against an attempt to sweep or roll, but essentially you've got someone locked down and they will often (especially less experienced) thrash like a wild animal.
 

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