I hear and read a lot about how the 'middle class is disappearing' and the conclusion that 'this is a bad thing'. So I have two basic questions.
1) Is the Middle Class actually disappearing?
2) If true, is this necessarily a bad thing?
I recognize that no matter how one represents what the 'middle class' is, the growth of real income (adjusted for inflation and cost-of-living) since WWII has slowed considerably with reference to the growth of real income to those termed the 'ultra-rich'. But that statement does not in itself imply that a correction is either needed or desired. I read a lot of arguments that capture the condition and demand a 'fix' without describing what the problem is. In other words, yes, the rich are getting richer faster than the middle class is getting richer. And that is bad because?
It seems to me that a more valid statement from which one can develop a hypothesis of a problem and then a plan of action to resolve is it this; is the class in poverty increasing?
There is no doubt that poverty is up in recent years:
http://www.census.gov/newsroom/releases/archives/income_wealth/cb10-144.html
This would seem to indicate to me that since 1959, poverty rates have declined 8% even relative to today's numbers. Taken strictly as a yardstick measurement, if 8% fewer of us live in poverty, then one must assume that those have joined the middle or upper classes financially. What else could this mean?
Put another way, if the middle class is indeed shrinking, where are they going? If the poverty level is increasing at the same time, one can argue that they are falling from middle class into poverty. However, is the upper class growing?
I could not find much information online to support a yes or no answer. I did find this:
http://austrianeconomists.typepad.com/weblog/2009/08/more-evidence-that-were-all-getting-richer.html
But since the data is only as recent as 2006, it does not include the recent recession, and I'm relatively sure that the percentages have changed since that time.
http://freemarketmojo.wordpress.com...shrinking-because-the-upper-class-is-growing/
But this leads me to a curious thought.
If, as it would appear at a glance, that the percentage of people below the poverty line has fallen by 8% since 1959, even including the current recession-caused increase in the numbers of people poverty, and the percentage of people becoming wealthy is increasing (or it was, again prior to the current recession), then it is reasonable to draw two conclusions.
The first is that the 'shrinking middle class' is caused by several things. People getting more wealthy, thus leaving the middle class, and the recession, which has caused an increase in poverty and (I presume) a decrease in those moving from middle class to upper class. However, minus the recession, the trend has been UP and not DOWN.
The second is that real problem is the recession and not the distribution of wealth. In other words, it is not the 1% that need to be attacked, but the recession that needs to be ended.
Is attacking the ultra-rich a valid way to end a recession? I suspect it would not be terribly efficacious.
As an aside, I just want to add once more before this discussion gets going, that I seldom read arguments against the ultra-rich that do not include value judgments about the morality of their wealth; that is, that they "didn't earn it" or that they are otherwise evil, greedy, bad people. If you're planning to introduce those elements as a reason for the income disparity to be changed, I am going to reject your argument as hate-based and not logic-based. Don't tell me how you feel about rich people, tell me why their wealth should be confiscated and what good that will do to the recovery. Thank you.
1) Is the Middle Class actually disappearing?
2) If true, is this necessarily a bad thing?
I recognize that no matter how one represents what the 'middle class' is, the growth of real income (adjusted for inflation and cost-of-living) since WWII has slowed considerably with reference to the growth of real income to those termed the 'ultra-rich'. But that statement does not in itself imply that a correction is either needed or desired. I read a lot of arguments that capture the condition and demand a 'fix' without describing what the problem is. In other words, yes, the rich are getting richer faster than the middle class is getting richer. And that is bad because?
It seems to me that a more valid statement from which one can develop a hypothesis of a problem and then a plan of action to resolve is it this; is the class in poverty increasing?
There is no doubt that poverty is up in recent years:
http://www.census.gov/newsroom/releases/archives/income_wealth/cb10-144.html
However, the same study found that...The nation's official poverty rate in 2009 was 14.3 percent, up from 13.2 percent in 2008 the second statistically significant annual increase in the poverty rate since 2004. There were 43.6 million people in poverty in 2009, up from 39.8 million in 2008 the third consecutive annual increase.
The poverty rate in 2009 was the highest since 1994, but was 8.1 percentage points lower than the poverty rate in 1959, the first year for which poverty estimates are available. The number of people in poverty in 2009 is the largest number in the 51 years for which poverty estimates are available.
This would seem to indicate to me that since 1959, poverty rates have declined 8% even relative to today's numbers. Taken strictly as a yardstick measurement, if 8% fewer of us live in poverty, then one must assume that those have joined the middle or upper classes financially. What else could this mean?
Put another way, if the middle class is indeed shrinking, where are they going? If the poverty level is increasing at the same time, one can argue that they are falling from middle class into poverty. However, is the upper class growing?
I could not find much information online to support a yes or no answer. I did find this:
http://austrianeconomists.typepad.com/weblog/2009/08/more-evidence-that-were-all-getting-richer.html
But since the data is only as recent as 2006, it does not include the recent recession, and I'm relatively sure that the percentages have changed since that time.
http://freemarketmojo.wordpress.com...shrinking-because-the-upper-class-is-growing/
But this leads me to a curious thought.
If, as it would appear at a glance, that the percentage of people below the poverty line has fallen by 8% since 1959, even including the current recession-caused increase in the numbers of people poverty, and the percentage of people becoming wealthy is increasing (or it was, again prior to the current recession), then it is reasonable to draw two conclusions.
The first is that the 'shrinking middle class' is caused by several things. People getting more wealthy, thus leaving the middle class, and the recession, which has caused an increase in poverty and (I presume) a decrease in those moving from middle class to upper class. However, minus the recession, the trend has been UP and not DOWN.
The second is that real problem is the recession and not the distribution of wealth. In other words, it is not the 1% that need to be attacked, but the recession that needs to be ended.
Is attacking the ultra-rich a valid way to end a recession? I suspect it would not be terribly efficacious.
As an aside, I just want to add once more before this discussion gets going, that I seldom read arguments against the ultra-rich that do not include value judgments about the morality of their wealth; that is, that they "didn't earn it" or that they are otherwise evil, greedy, bad people. If you're planning to introduce those elements as a reason for the income disparity to be changed, I am going to reject your argument as hate-based and not logic-based. Don't tell me how you feel about rich people, tell me why their wealth should be confiscated and what good that will do to the recovery. Thank you.