Nice post. a possible further scenario:mrhnau said:1: We leave
2: Bathist return to power, or others sympathetic to Saddam
1: We leave
2: Country falls into civil war
3: Saddam gets "rescued" by loyalist.
1: We leave
2: Al Quida or other similar group risks a few hundred lives in an attempt to break Saddam out.
3: Civil war ensues, and in the chaos, Saddam regains power.
1: Saddam is found innocent and vindicated, and the UN finds some ridiculous way to install him. (doubt US would allow reinstallment though if still occupying)
So, the most reasonable methods for Saddam regaining power would require our abscence. I suppose Civil war would not require our abscence, but if it were to start, I think we would get Saddam out ASAP. The scale of offensive currently required to get Saddam out while we control him would be beyond the ability of Al Quida I think...
MrH
1: any of the above happen, Neither the Coalition, Iran nor Syria like the factions that are developing giving Saddam a window to play one off against the other and return as a power proker behind the scenes, thus minimising international interference and savng face all round.
For the scenario to work Saddam needs to acheive support and respect as he lacks the immediate power he once had - something his trial may actually help him with if the prosecution fail to make their case well enough to convince enough of the iraqi public of his unsuitability for any kind of power.
Having said that I would imagine one faction or another would arrange for him to have an "accident" if it ever seriously looked like he was going to be free to wield influence again. Depending how capable and unified those organising the Sunni insurgency are, he is probably more use to his natural supporters as a martyr figure than he is alive, given his time out of power, and the international attention he would attract. Futhermore the people best placed to help him are also those best placed to lead a Sunni faction, and given his track record for bumping off rivals they have serious discentives to keep him alive when they can use him more safely as a dead figurehead.