evenflow1121 said:
I dont really know how it will influence, a lot of these articles state that the minority population is greater in a given state, however; that does not mean that the minorities/majority population are compiled of voters just a demographic group, so that is something to keep in mind.
In terms of voting a lot of recent immigrant groups will go with the particular candidate that will help them and their families abroad. For example, George W Bush has a good relationship with Mexico, and has been pretty good to certain groups like migrant workers and what not, thus, it is not surprising that a lot of hispanic voters in Texas did vote for him. Adding to that he was the governor of that state prior to the Presidency and had the highest minority voting turn out for him than any other republican in the State of Texas as well, I believe.
For a nice argument on this, I can recommend reading John Micklewaith and Adrian Wooldridge's "The Right Nation: Conservative Power in America," a very informative and non-partisan view on the development of the conservative movement in the US. With regards to the Latino vote, I must agree with the authors' point of view. They argue that, although minorities have traditionally been seen as more favorable to the Democractic party, latino votes are likely to shift towards the right in the coming years. Already in the 2004 elections the Latino vote was almost evenly split, with about 45% of latinos voting Republican. The reasons are varied, but the authors mention fundamentally two: (a) the high levels of religiosity of hispanic communities and the emphasis on "family values," whether in Latino Catholic or Evangelical environments; (b) the fact that many Latinos are owners of their own businesses, a fact that makes them closer to Republican positions on matters such as taxation, etc. etc. THe authors argue: "(Latinos) have the highest male workforce participation rate of any measured group - and one of the lowest incidences of trade union membership and welfare dependency (...) Latinos are arguably the most family-oriented ethnic group in American society. They also have a marjed propensity to start their own businesses and buy their own homes - both incubators of Republicanism." They argue that in time the Latino vote will very likely split along class lines, with poorer Latinos voting for the Democratic Party, whereas more established and economically enfranchised Latinos will move towards the Republicans.
I live in a neighborhood that is about 80% Latino, and can certainly agree with the above argument almost letter by letter. The displays of extreme fundamentalist religiosity combined with a very visible emphasis on the subordination of women and the perpetuation of a very specific view of the family makes me think that progressive or even semi-progressive politics have no chance with this population group.
The population growth rate of Latinos is the highest in the country, and even though many of them do not have power vote (a recent article in the Washington Post argued that it takes 2 white people to produce 1 vote, but it takes 5 Hispanics to produce 1 vote), the reality is the Latino community is much closer to the Republican party than, say, the African-American community. Support for the war against Iraq amongst Latinos ranged between 60-67% in 2003, as opposed to a mere 45% amongst African-Americans. And this is just one example.
As a personal observation, what's interesting to me is how on the one hand Republicans use the Latino "threat" as a fear-mongering political strategy to pander to the white vote, yet simultaneously foment the indiscriminate immigration of Hispanics into the country and in fact have put forward proposals that in fact grant amnesty to people who, put simply, have entered this country by breaking the law. It puzzles me that I, who have been in this country for 8 years and have paid taxes every single year, must remain on a student visa and am not allowed to hold a job off campus. But people who have broken the law get a free ride??????? hmmmmm interesting, Mr. President.
Peace,
A.T.
