OP
- Thread Starter
- #21
Like them or not, you use them. We all do. And of course, statistics are accurate applied to the aggregate, not to the individual. That's why insurance companies can accurately predict their financial exposure to a given liability, but can't tell you if *you* personally will be in a car accident or contract a disease.
However, the fact that they are accurate in the aggregate is a basis point that can be used to reach a logical conclusion. I am not saying it is the only factor; else I'd be arguing with a guy as he stabbed me that "The odds say you should not be doing this." I don't suggest slavishly paying attention to statistics and not the actual situation you find yourself in.
But you use statistics, as I said. You are making an evaluation that includes what you think your chances are in any given situation. Oops, late for an exit ramp on the highway. Too late to go for it across several lanes of traffic? What are the chances a cop sees you? What are the chances someone is in your blind spot? You make your decision and you act on it. But yes, you're using statistics - your own internal statistics.
The main difference is that your internal statistics are based on your experiences and your anecdotal information. Everybody knows bad news comes in threes. Except it doesn't, not statistically. If you decide it's true and order your life by it, well, that's up to you. Now shift that to self-defense. If you decide that every confrontation is liable to end in you being attacked no matter what response you use, so you "might as well go down swinging," (as Rich said) you may find yourself responding to a non-life threatening event in a way that now ensures it is a life-threatening event.
All I'm saying is that the moment you decide to respond with violence, you have moved the confrontation to a new level of risk, one which you may not have needed to do. You may have lowered your personal risk somewhat by 'getting the jump' on the BG. But you have pretty much eliminated the possibility that you're going to emerge unscathed.
I contend that such absolutist logic is not very good logic. Sure, it's your choice, and you may well be right - attack first, attack hard, and don't even bother thinking there might be less risky options and you may come out on top. But you might not be right also.
Self-defense means (to me) that my first responsibility is to myself. I use the information available to me to make a decision when necessary. Pre-determined responses are good for the military, but are not overly conducive to personal survival, IMHO.
Points taken Bill. IMO, though, I wasn't intending my post to sound as if I was using stats. I was thinking about this yesterday, after I logged off. Should've replied when it was still fresh, but I'll do my best to recall what I was thinking.
My point wasn't to point to numbers. I was simply saying, and I believe you confirmed my point in one of your other posts, that stats aren't reliable. You yourself said that each and every situation will be different. So, that being said, that led me to say what I did about the use of stats....that its hard, if not impossible, to determine whether or not someone stood a better chance of survival, if they complied or didn't. There was an article in todays paper about an 18yo male that shot/killed at 74yo male, outside a store. The 18yo was looking for money, told the 74yo to put everything on the ground. The 74yo attempted to grab the gun and was shot. The 18yo also shot him 2 more times. The 18yo is also a suspect in the killing of another store clerk, but hasnt been charged yet.
While training against weapons or empty hand attacks doesnt ensure success, one would hope their odds would be slightly better than someone with no training. Would this man have been shot anyways, if he complied? No idea. Would I still be shot if it were me instead of a 74yo man? No idea.
Let me ask you this, and correct me if I'm wrong here. I'm reading your logic as, when faced with a weapon, comply. Hand over whatever they want. Hopefully, they'll take it, and leave, and it'll be a bad memory. If, after you comply, things are still looking ugly, then fight back.
My theory is to fight back right away, whether the badguy would walk away or not.
Am I correct so far? If so, my question is...if, after we comply, and things still get ugly, its ok to fight back, but we could still end up hurt or dead, why not just fight back from the get go? We're banking on 50/50 odds, that if we comply, we'll walk away unharmed. But if we hand our keys and cash, the guy tells us to get into the truck, now we can fight back???? Why is it suddenly ok then? To play devils advocate, we complied in the beginning, and nothing happened, so why not get into the trunk? Crazy, I know. LOL. For the record, I wouldn't get into the trunk.
Like I said before, there may not be another opportune time to fight back. I'd rather fight back from the beginning. I mean, this is akin to saying, "Ok, this guy is pissed at me for cutting him off and it looks like he's gonna hit me, but I'm gonna wait until the punch is almost to my face, before I do anything." I say screw that. When I see the guys hand draw back, thats when I'm going to do something. If someone is rushing towards me, hands clenched, face red, teeth clenched, I'm not waiting until I can smell what he had for breakfast, I'm going to do something once he's within arms reach. IMO, he wants to do more than just talk at that time, because if he didn't, he'd have been capable of talking to me from 5 ft away.