Can you PREDICT your opponent?

[Jenna]

Is it possible for me to anticipate my opponents moves? YES, but I have been reading body movement for a long time now. Dose that mean I will always be fast enough to avoid the movement? NO, I have gotten older and slower

Hey tshadowchaser Can you tell me at all how you anticipate? how did you learn it and what are you looking for in an opponent ready to strike? Surely if you are able to accurately anticipate at least some of your opponent's moves, you can cover the ground more quickly with your block or evade or counter, than you could otherwise. I think this is fighting smart...
Thank you again
Yr most obdt hmble srvt,
Jenna

 

[terryl965]

Hey Terry Thank you very much for this. I have tried what you suggested and but I still wonder if the best that can be achieved is a very fast reaction to a punch or kick that is ALREADY out there?? And which is not quite the same as predicting just that moment before it goes. Maybe I just do not have the skill for it. I tried something recently and I wonder have you ever had your training partner fake a move to see if you could predict what he was planning. I found leading-hand jabs impossible to recognise. For other moves I have noticed slight hip movements and was at least able to foresee which side the shot was coming from. Best I seem to be able to do is to have my training partner to fake a move and then manage to point to the correct limb that he was thinking of launching out! And I am at best, 50% accurate. Tell me you can predict more accurately and I will take heart that I am not wasting my time with this...
Yr most obdt hmble srvt,
Jenna

Jenna I can fore see about 70% of the time what is coming the problem is with age comes wisdom but also comes being slower to re-act, that is why by predicting what can come from the angke of the hips and the position of the feet you are able to be nore accurate is your preditions.

 

[14 Kempo]

I did not read every post within this thread, so if I'm repeating something, I'm sorry ...

Actions can be predicted, a lot of it comes with experience. However, another way of looking at it is in setting up your opponent by working your guard. Work in quadrants and position your guard as to make one quadrant more attractive than the others. Example, I stand in a fighting stance, left foot forward, however, I lower my left hand guard and raise my right, a reverse guard as we call it in our style. I have just made my upper left quadrant more attractive to my opponent and raised the chances of a strike to that area, I can therefore 'predict' that a strike will come and therefore be prepared to beat or counter that strike. Anyway, it is something that I am working on and it seems to work, it's just that I don't all the time

Hope that is understandable ...

 

[tshadowchaser]

Can you tell me at all how you anticipate? how did you learn it and what are you looking for in an opponent ready to strike?

watching the center of the chest while not forcibly focusing on it will let you see from what area the attack is most likely to be generated from. Also know what your opponent likes to do helps. This is good for the school however if on the street always expect the unexpected but still watch the center of the chest to see what body part is moving. That is one of the ways

Moving forward into an attack changes what your opponent dose as his/her first movement was intended to be used with you at a certain distance

 

[FearlessFreep]

Heck, I can't even predict my own movement

 

[14 Kempo]

Heck, I can't even predict my own movement

LOL ... so very true for a lot of us!

 

[Sukerkin]

Hey Sukerkin my friend Do you have a concrete notion of what is meant by "a general awareness"? I am wondering what you would be looking for? I wonder by the time we see the opponent break into his move, did we simply miss the cue that preceded that move? If so, I wonder what was that cue? Can it be spotted prior to the move being made? I know all moves might surely have different prior flinches or whatever that is why I was just wondering about straight non-telegraphed punches or non-flamboyant kicks. Thank you again for your help with this

Jenna

The best way I can describe it is that you are aware of the whole body in a diffuse focus, rather than either pinpointing your attention on one spot or trying to consciously keep track of several.

The common giveaway for many people, oddly enough, is a tightening of facial expression before they attack, a look of having 'made a decision'. For others, it is a slight inclination forward of the head or the whole body Sometimes this can be as minimal as the shifting of the weight distribution in the feet (something that you can see quite clearly when people are barefoot in the dojo (all hail hakama and tabi )).

In the end, this is one of those 'riding a bike' skills. Someone can explain what works for them and tell you what they think they're observing but only practise will reveal what works for yourself.

 

[Kosho Gakkusei]

Can an opponents movements be read to predict the particular attack that will be thrown? Yes. The fist is the last thing that moves when someone is punching and the foot is the last thing to move in a kick. Experience will teach you this slowly. You can speed this process by study.

1st study yourself from various postures and positions with an opponent in various postures in positions at various angles and distances. What types of movements are free to make from that situation? What movements cannot be done without an adjustment? What adjustments can you make to free your movement?

Now reverse the proccess. Have your opponent assume various postures and positions while you assume different postures and positions at various distances and angles. Study the movements they need to make in order to launch various attacks.

Kata is a really useful tool for both these studies.

More important than trying to predict particular attacks would be learning to see without looking (periphial vision) and moving offline when you see movement while you strike or counter to where the opponent is moving to rather than where they came from.

_Don Flatt

 

[bowser666]

I always found that sparring is liek poker. Everyone has their tell. Whether it is a eye movement , a shifting of the feet, telegraphing etc..... Looks for shifts in weight from foot to foot, stance changes, alot of fighters will also move a shoulder forward on the same side they are striking with just before they attack. Just look for the telegraphing movements. Most people that have no formal training will telegraph as well. From my experience anyways.

 

[morph4me]

With proper distance an a diffused focus you can start learning what to look for, the weight shifts, the difference in tension, the shoulder and hip movementsetc. When you get more comfortable and begin recognizing what's happening, distance becomes less of an factor, because you react sooner.

Diffuse focus would be the same kind of focus you have when you drive a car, you don't stare at the bumper of the car in front of you, you keep your gaze diffused so you can see what's going on around you, see when the cars ahead are braking, etc.

Add an invitation to "attack me here" and you can accurately predict the attack most of the time.

 

[Jenna]

Thank you all again

I maybe should have said my art is Aikido and my style is not primarily striking. I am happy to defend and counter a full-power, direct attack. Yet I would like even better if I could extract another little advantage by predicting those strikes. I have done this once or twice, but more in luck than in spotting the opponent's flinch or his "giveaway" as I think of it. And but I am certain it can be done.

I am happy to "See the whole tree but watch for the apples falling" as one of my first senseis would have suggested and this I think is the diffuse focus morph4me and Sukerkin, you both have mentioned. And but within that, I am trying to pick up the cues that a strike event is about to happen. Telegraphing is very helpful but seldom happens (to me at least) with an adept opponent.

Likewise, "Predicting by probabilities" as I would call it, I see as either being aware of the subset of possible moves the opponent can make as 14Kempo you mentioned, OR leaving an open door for him to to enter at as Rich P has said (though this can be SO risky for me anyways). And I think by these we give ourselves shorter odds in the bet. Still, I would call this a pseudo-prediction and not the full monty

browser666 mentioned "shifts in weight from foot to foot, stance changes, alot of fighters will also move a shoulder forward on the same side they are striking with just before they attack" and these are the kind of specifics that I would like to understand. Not for every move there is, but for simple front punch and front or side kick. What are the body cues? Does anyone know the body mechanics of it?? I have tried to observe, and but until the strike is out, I cannot tell what went before.. Ah, I am probably not explaining too well..

Anyways, thank you all most sincerely for taking the time and for your patience as I take myself all round the houses trying to build the phrasing for what is in my head Yes, air mostly, ha!

Yr most obdt hmble srvt,
Jenna

 

[Hawke]

Hey Jenna,

You got some good advise on predicting your opponent's movements.

"See the whole tree but watch for the apples falling" is a phrase I have not heard in ages. In Kenpo (EPAK) we call it white dot/black dot focus. An old Chinese saying is "see nothing to see everything."

Where do you focus? The eyes? The chest? The hips? A soft unfocused gaze around the middle of the chest to see the shoulders and hips has worked for me, but may be a different position for you.

Keeping your distance is good as others have mentioned to give you more time to react. There may be times when you want to move first and not play the "who has the faster reflex game." So predicting your opponent will be a big help.

Ever heard of grooming gestures? A person may wipe, scratch, look away before they launch an attack (this is more real life than sparring).

When watching an opponent move think of a bullwhip. Ages ago an aikido instructor Terry Dobson did a seminar with a bullwhip. The last part to hit/snap is the tip but the power generating from the whip came from the body (feet, hip, shoulders). Same goes for punches and kicks. The fist is last to hit, but the power started in the body. When you see the signs you know a fist is about to fly out.

Some signs to look for:
drop in height
dip in shoulder

Others have already mentioned the eyes telegraphing, weight shifts, and direction of the hips.

Speaking of weight shifts, a nice time to close the gap and strike is in the middle of the opponent's weight shift or stance change.

Hope this helps a little.

 

[Sukerkin]

Some nice, concise, phrasings above for how this 'feels' :tup:. Before now, I've described it in a pseudo-zen way:

See everything; focus on nothing.

I've always liked that and it's very similar to Hawke's but I reckon the 'tree' analogy might have the edge on us .

 

[shihansmurf]

White dot/Black dot focus in kenpo is a good way to visualize the concept of awareness.

Overall I find that the more I train and the more familiar I grow with a given fighter, the more I learn the way that he/she telegraphs their movements. That's about as close as I can get to predicting anything. If I were good at "predicting" things I would spend a lot more time in Las Vegas.

I still drop my right shoulder a bit before I throw a straight punch. I'm starting to accept that I'll never quite get it out of my system but I have gotten pretty good at hiding it.

Mark

 

[Rich Parsons]

Thank you all again

Likewise, "Predicting by probabilities" as I would call it, I see as either being aware of the subset of possible moves the opponent can make as 14Kempo you mentioned, OR leaving an open door for him to to enter at as Rich P has said (though this can be SO risky for me anyways). And I think by these we give ourselves shorter odds in the bet. Still, I would call this a pseudo-prediction and not the full monty


Yr most obdt hmble srvt,
Jenna

Jenna,

I would be embarrassed by the full monty. I never said I was the best, only offering information that was not yeah I do that also.

But I see your point(s) and acknowledge them as points of concern or consideration.

Thanks

 

[Kosho Gakkusei]

A relevant quote from the skski website.

The Kosho Shorei Ryu Bujutsu (martial arts) are based on the study of the preparatory arts. This life-study occurs 24 hours a day, and is the most important aspect of Kosho Shorei, True Self-defense. The preparatory arts teach the Kempo-ka to control his environment in a way that inhibits conflict from taking place. In this way, he is able to live in harmony with his environment and the people in it. The preparatory arts allow students to structure themselves such that they effectively prevent self-generation of what we call negative stimuli. This element of control allows one to eliminate self-conflict.
Negative stimuli are any use of our psycho-physical systems which are less than 100% efficient in the resolution of the specific situational conflict we are within. For example, we all have two forms of vision: peripheral and tunnel vision. Kosho Shorei Kempo Bujutsuka, who study the natural truths or laws pertaining to the martial arts primarily, understand this, and its significance. By studying themselves and their systems of functionality, they are most effectively able to use their skills and attributes in any situation. The significance of understanding visual modes is great: Our eyes send nerve impulses to the brain to allow us to perceive and react to environmental stimuli. The cones, which are cells on the retina responsible for perceiving form and color, are greater in number in the center of the retina than on the periphery. Therefore, when we look directly at something, much more detail is perceived, sent to the brain, and processed. This takes time. Tunnel vision makes relatively quick reaction impossible due to the volume of information we ask our brain to process in this mode. Tunnel vision should be used when we want to intently study something. Peripheral vision, on the other hand, was designed for detecting motion. The smaller number of cones on our retina's periphery do not pass along as much information pertaining to color, depth-perception, subtle shading and toning of objects. What we receive is simply where objects in our environment are, and where they are going. The brain then calculates speed and other factors that allow us to deal with our environment. The understanding of peripheral vision's benefits, and specific ancient methods of employing this understanding in a self-defense situation is one of Kosho Ryu's fundamental studies. The additional understanding of posturing, weightedness from left to right leg, hearing and visual ranges, and other factors create quite a large bit of preparation students of Kosho Ryu can use to control an opponent. However, these factors are used mostly in the physical arts, which are the lowest levels of Kosho Ryu Bujutsu.
True Kosho Shorei happens in the mind. Perception of a potential attacker's intent, based upon things such as his demeanor, flesh and eye-white color, degree of apparent excitement or agitation, tone of voice, body language, verbal expression, and of course his words and gestures all help us determine his situation, including his weaknesses. Kosho Ryu teaches you apply this, along with your understanding of your own psychology, in order to better understand yourself as well. We cannot understand attackers until we understand ourselves. Perception of ourselves is not only important for self-diagnosis and self improvement, but also to understand how an attacker might perceive us, and therefore what he might do.​

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This is the art of seeing without looking.
_Don Flatt

 

[tshadowchaser]

You are receiving some great information and ideas on how to predict your opponent, however remember that all of what has been said takes practice. None of those who do these things where able to do them correctly or constantly the first time they tried.
Like everything else in the arts it takes time and practice and discipline to do these things

 

[terryl965]

You are receiving some great information and ideas on how to predict your opponent, however remember that all of what has been said takes practice. None of those who do these things where able to do them correctly or constantly the first time they tried.
Like everything else in the arts it takes time and practice and discipline to do these things

You are absolutely correct it take alot of time to get anywhere with predicting, anticipating or actually seeing it before it happens by certain movements.

 

[Jenna]

You are receiving some great information and ideas on how to predict your opponent, however remember that all of what has been said takes practice. None of those who do these things where able to do them correctly or constantly the first time they tried.
Like everything else in the arts it takes time and practice and discipline to do these things

Hey tshadowchaser Yes of course, this is true and I agree completely. And but I think there is another aspect that I have noticed and I wonder would you or anyone have a comment. When I am in happy randori with another aikidoka, I can predict their movement with a decent accuracy and with no great worry. I like to take myself around people and places though and have found when I face players from other arts KF, JJ and TKD for example, I have no notion what to look for IN TERMS OF PREDICTION. I can still defend to best of my ability and but zero chance of prediction. Zero for me.

I do try to spread my wings and see other arts and try them, and try them against my aikido also, for my own improvement. And but one can never know everything about everything. I understand this. If I could just figure out the pre-movement flinches for simple straight front punch or front or side kick I would be happier.

For me, knowing what to look for in that fractional interim between the opponent thinking of his punch and actually throwing it, is what I am keenest to learn at this time..
Thank you sincerely for your patience
Yr most obdt hmble srvt,
Jenna

 

[tshadowchaser]

People from other arts are doing something from that which is normal to you. Their body movements are different from the aikidoka even if they are trying to do the same thing ( punch, kick, etc.).
Yes you may be able to figure that a movement is coming from the top half of the body or the lower half but if you have not faced these moves countless times you may not recognize the “tell” when it is presented.
Sometime it is also a “feeling” you get rather than an actual knowing. Listen to this feeling and react without questioning it. You might get some surprising results.
Your opponents level of training may also have something to do with if you pick up these “tells”. Practice with those of beginning ranks then intermediate ranks. Watch how each throws that punch or kick and start to see what they do just prior to delivering the attack. For that matter just visit a “karate” school and sit and watch people practice. You will see some interesting movement in the bodies when they perform.
Not much help I know , just more thoughts

sheldon