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What you're trying to argue ZDW is a proven, reliable .45 that was proven for over a century vs. a caliber (9mm
Originally posted by Mya Ryu Jitsu
JN,
With respect, I have to disagree with OSS statistics. They are not based on reality. The employ data that at least in part has been publically discredited by the very source represented and is based on arbitrary criteria.
First, M & S's OSS statistics have been debunked based on their data base for nearly a decade in professional journals. In several cases, the source of their alleged shootings be it a department or individual have come forth and stated that either the incident never happened or it happened in an entirely different manner that was reported by M & S. This is not in dispute and has been reported numerous times in professional journals. M & S's response has been to sequestor their data base or ignore the charges altogether. This is intellectual dishonety to use statistics that were either created or altered to portray a preconcieved idea.
Second, their OSS criteria is unrealistic at best. In order to be included in their data base the shot must have been an unobstructed torso shot. I would offer a loose percentage of 70% of police/citizen shootings are through outstretched limbs or common barriers such as doors, walls, windshields etc. To represent only unobstructed shots is to taint the results towards rounds that would normally under-penatrate in living tissue. In addition to this, they view an individual who falls down within 10 feet of point of shooting as a stop without regards to weapon used by the BG or incapacitation. For example, the situation I used earlier in which the Bg was shot in the leg, breaking the femur and fell down. Going soley on their arbitrary guidline of 'stops' this could be counted as a stop. But only because his weapon was an edged weapon and his victim was out of range when he fell down. Had this been a firearm he would still have been capable of returning fire. So it is only a stop if the situation permits and can change from situation to situation. It is arbitrary.
So we have a data base that only represents a small fraction of shootings in individual calibers, a data base that has questionable content of which some has been proven faulty and a shooting guidline that does not address common shooting obstacles or distinguish between incapacitation and continued threat capabilities.
I do not say this to embarras you Jonathan, I too once felt their data was strret proven results. However, as the years went by and new information surfaced I saw the faulty assumptions on which their definitive study was based.
This is where your problem is. You cannot accept the reality. The 40 S&W has a 96% one shot stop real world result. The 40 S&W is one of the most successful ammo ever introduced. And your comment is" it can't even knock down a camera light"Jonathan, you spoke of the 135 grain .40 S & W round. Because of it's sectional density it can be counted on to average perhaps 10 inches of penetration. In a perfect, unobstructed torso shot on an average male that might be enough penetration to reach a vital or CNS. But it is not a perfect world and one should not count on a best case senerio. One should hope for a best case but prepare for a worst case senerio such as oblique angle, cross torso, outstretched limbs and common barriers.
The 124+P Gold dot 9mm routinely has around 15 inches of penetration and has an excellent record of barrier penetration and adequate tissue penetration. We have had through and through shots but the rounds were usually recovered feet away, not down the street as some unreliable gun rags would have you believe.
Thankyou for your concern. This is the internet. It is not warranted. We are all adult here. No need to patronize.I think I am more concerned about your safety than you are mine. I am not talking about jello tests. If the lab results back up real life that is fine. But the OSS does not touch on real life either. If it did it would have to comprise all shootings in a particular caliber/weigh/bullet type and then assess the results. This of course has not, and could not happen due to the tremendously difficult nature of the work load. The OSS is reletively small in comparision to the overall number of shootings. It has been proven that at least some of the data base was created as well as altered. I know that the 9mm by several manufacturers has done as well as can be expected from a handgun. Same with the .45 and the others as well. I no longer trust my life to ammo [regardless of caliber] that under penatrates or is the expensive exotic type that also underpenetrates. That is my choice. I want something that I know will function well in my pistol, something that has a very good change of adequate penetration and something that is accurate under stress.
St. Petersburg PD has recently gone to the G22 in .40. There qualifications in stress fire have dropped dramatically agency wide from when they used the G17 in 9mm.
The 120 lb, 20 yr old got shot with 3 HydraShok and a 12 gauge blast.With respect, you say the guy . Could you be more specific because the IWBA comprises multiple individuals from the military, LE agencies as well as technical entities.
No, what you're saying was that the 9mm is superior to the 45 in general. One of the things you said was that it was faster, then you said the caliber difference was minimal, and so on.
Faulty assumptions? The IWBA is looked down upon by a lot of places because it lacks real-world results.
And also, against terrorists, most terrorists now wear vests of some kind. A 9mm is like a Super Soaker against that.
There is good reason why most SWAT team members, and NO elite military soldiers carry the 9mm.
First of all, no need to deny your intend.
You have tried repeatedly to embarrass me
It does not bother me when people attack me
I have provided the battlefield reports
The 40 S&W has a 96% one shot stop real world result.
The 40 S&W is one of the most successful ammo ever introduced. And your comment is" it can't even knock down a camera light"
Same penetration? At times, but if you're saying a 9mm can penetrate farther than a .45, you're crazy.
A 9mm just lacks the power.
I was talking with one of my brothers about some different calibers and velocities. Something we often talk about. This led to the IPSC's Power Factor, which is simply Bullet Weight in Grains, Times Velocity, Divided by 1,000. This is an easy formula that one can use when comparing loads... but doesn't take into effect Caliber. W x V / 1000= PF. Nice - but not enough. I personally think Caliber is a CRITICAL FACTOR in a defensive bullet.
I have been thinking about this for a few minutes now, and I think I have another similar formula that will be more accurate when looking at and comparing different loads.
One of the most popular methods of comparison is the M&S OSS%. I think the M&S study has some merit, but the study, due to its critical flaws, has been debunked as junk science. (more on that later) So a simple mathematical formula like what the IPSC uses should be of some help. IPSC's goal was to create a certain level that allows people to compete on a more even playing field.
This is a new scale... So the numbers are going to look different, but bare with me. Once you starting running this formula with different calibers and loads, you will see some interesting results:
Bullet Weight in Grains, Times Caliber, Times Velocity, Divided by 1000 = Defensive Power Factor or DPF for short.
For 9MM and such you of course use its actual measured Caliber .355 or what ever your bullet is actually sized at. 10MM is .40 cal etc.
Example:
A 230 grain .45 load: 230*.45= 103.5 *900/1000 = DPF 93.15
Smaller caliber bullets will have smaller numbers, and mouse guns will look more like mouse guns that they are on this scale. That's why we call them Mouse Guns. DonĀt get pissed at me if your choice of a carry package looks wimpy.
No Ā the DPF its not perfect... but its simple. K.I.S.S! That is the whole point.
Just for fun - lets look at the .454 Casull:
300 grain bullet, .45 caliber, 1650 FPS speed = DPF of 222.75! Too Bad that .454 Casull pistols make poor Carry Guns!
The DPF Formula works on rifles as well, but you need to change the scale. For Rifles, donĀt divide by 1000Ā Divide it by 100.
Now, the Speed Freak guys that think faster is better might be getting a little irked here. But I think this is showing a more accurate picture. I mean, everyone knows .308 hits harder than .223, so these numbers should not surprise you. You have a bigger caliber, heavier bullet... it will hit harder that a smaller, lighter one. That's physics. Putting Egos aside - I think that this is a simple and easy way to compare loads. I am not suggesting you compare Rifle calibers to Handgun Calibers in terms of effectiveness - but it is useful when comparing Rifles to Rifles... Such as .223 and .243... And .300 to .338 etc
Will this end the 9MM vs. .45 debate? No. (but it should, damn it!) The speed guys continue to talk about Hydro Static Shock. I donĀt have a formula that factors in Hydro Static Shock... as we donĀt have a way to accurately measure that. The 9MM vs .45 debate is one of the eternal issues for the gun culture to talk about. Personally, I favor making as big of a hole in my target as I can.
To full understand the DPF theory, one must understand the background to the ISPC Power Factor. The reason for the two different classes has to do with scoring. A 9mm typically has much less recoil then a .45. This way, the playing field is somewhat equal. However, a 9mm bullet can still make major (.38 Super). On the other hand, it'll have much harsher recoil then a minor 9mm. The reverse can be applied to the .40 S&W. It can be shot in the minor or major class depending on the PF. This is where reloading is a big bonus.
IPSC PF = wt * V / 1000
Where: wt=weight in grains, and V=velocity in fps
Major is from 175 up.
200 gr. .45 bullet at 900 feet/second = 180 power factor.
Minor is from 125 to 174.999.
125 gr. 9mm bullet at 1000 feet/second = 125 power factor.
Adding the caliber to the formula gives us a yard stick for itĀs defensive potential. This formula favors bigger calibers, and heavier bullets... But then again - IPSC's formula was weight friendly too and people can moan about hydrostatic shock but that fact is bigger caliber bullets make bigger holes. If you have ever seen with your own eyes the dead bodies of people shot with handguns... you see just the hole and wound channel... You donĀt see any temporary wound cavity.
.38 Casull, .38 Super, .357 SIG... I think the formula is fair to those as well because they are all actually firing similar sized bullets. LetĀs be realĀ they are all ĀFast NinesĀ launching the same pills. The only differences that matter here are the weight of the slug being launched and the velocity itĀs launched at.
LetĀs look at the smaller calibers for a sec. Run your favorite .32ACP load against other .32ACP loads. Now compare the .32ACP vs. .380ACP. Toss in the new .32NAA cartridge. What about .22 vs. .25?
I think once you starting lining everything up you will see that everything falls into place rather nicely and anything with a DPF over 40 is a potent load that you could carry for CCW with confidence.
Bullet types are interesting... Hollow points donĀt always expand. How could you factor that in the equation and keep it simple? Probability of expanded caliber after the bullet stops, Starfire vs. Hydra shoks? Lets not go there. But - if you want - it might be fair to give your self a .5 point bonus to your hollow points should they expand as advertised. ThatĀs up to you. Use the formula as you like.
The first person that raises there hand to ask about SHOT SHELLS will be flogged by chanting nude Gregorian monks with whips!
Okay, what about shot shells? What the hell. LetĀs go ahead and look at that for a bit.
Since shot shell loads are so different, the only to give these a rating, is to combine the DPF scores of the individual shot within. This will give you the POTENTIAL DPF, since the shot will spread on the target and many of the pellets may miss. You'll need a micrometer to measure some of these... Do the DPF on one... then multiply that against the number of pellets. Same thing with loads that have different sized pellets. Factor all the different sizes. Potential is all you can have on the shotshells, but it still works. Now some shotgun guys are going to complain about something here, but give it a rest. Take comfort in the DPF score of one of your slugs! Judas Priest!
You canĀt create a formula that will take EVERYTHING into account including expansion, fragmenting, and shot placement. It gets too complicated. Can't be done. Simply can not be done. Because you would have to factor in bullet shape, jacket thickness, the targetĀs mass, air density and humidityĀ a million things.
Now, more on M&S ratings. Marshall and Sanow's theory is erroneous. They gathered police shooting and autopsy reports. Then culled out all cases where an individual that was shot received only a single gunshot wound. That wound had to belong to the upper torso (what we commonly call Center of Mass.. COM). All other shootings were thrown away and were no longer part of the analysis. Marshall and Sanow then took all of one hit reports and determined how many of them resulted in a "stop," which they define as a Ācessation of hostility within a certain time periodĀ. The figure represented a percentage of all the single COM hit cases, is the official "one shot stop percentage" for that caliber. Their study is dramatically flawed due to the discarding all incidents where it took more then one shot to stop an individual. The reason for the flaw happens when you must use deadly force, you keep shooting until the person stops attacking you. Therefore, the odds are extremely high that if you only fire at someone once, it is because he stopped attacking you after one shot and fell over dead. In those cases where only one shot is fired and the attacker did not stop, that is likely due to the BG taking your gun, or killed you.
Many of the forensic studies show that a single shot to the CNS (central nervous system) will result in an immediate stop. However, the difficulty of a CNS shot is very high. The majority of CNS shots are by good luck. Marshall and Sanow ignored several variables like the type of firearm used (barrel length, rifling type and rate of twist, etc), specific shot placement, angle of shot, etc. Yet, all COM results were discarded by M&S.
ItĀs humorous looking at their 93 to 96% "one shot stoppers." On the other hand, most people are aware that handguns simply arenĀt that powerful. One only needs to ask an EMT. If a 96% on shot stops meant that a round had a 96% chance of stopping an individual, then shooting someone twice with that round should yield a 99.8% chance of stopping the attacker. ThatĀs as close to 100% as you can get, and no one is suggesting that a double tap with any handgun ammo can guarantee a stop. What about the other 90+ percent of shooting incidents where there were multiple shots to the COM? Why didn't the attacker die after one shot if it's a 90+% one shot stopper?
Basically what IĀm blabbing is, there are no fool proof formulas. Marshall and Sanow do have some good points. However, a majority of their study is flawed. If they had relied more heavily upon physics and ALL shooting reports, their study wouldĀve been more realistic.
My advice is carry the biggest, most comfortable caliber that YOU WILL HAVE WITH YOU AT ALL TIMES. ItĀs pointless to say that the 44 mag is the best CCW if itĀs impractical for you to conceal. If you canĀt hide it well, then you canĀt carry it. If you canĀt carry it, then what is the point? ItĀs better to have any gun in a defensive situation then no gun at all.
So - where does this leave us?
With a simple formula easy enough to run in your head while shopping for ammo or looking at two pistols and your thinking which one is for you. It is a mental Ballistics Gel Test.
If your looking for a formula for determining the Magic Bullet - It isnĀt gunna happen, there is no Magic Bullet... Only in the movies. Even the Seeker Bullets from the Movie "Runaway" didn't work 100%. Maybe .50BMG could be it, but you can't that fit that into a 1911...
For some more information:
http://www.firearmstactical.com/tactical.htm
Stop ping-ponging, that was not what anybody is talking about. You are the only one claiming one supported OSS studies for some reason.Originally posted by Mya Ryu Jitsu
And there you have it
http://www.firearmstactical.com/tactical.htm
Does indeed have much more to say about M & S OSS study being junk science and in much greater detail than I have posted here.
Well done.
The best advice to the readers is to check out the references, links and articles provided. You can decide for yourself.