Problem for the Brits is a simple one. The risk of an inability to field a force to negate possible Argentinian aggression.
Lets look at this logically for a moment.
[TABLE="class: infobox"]
[TR]
[TD]224,500 regulars[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]187,130 regular reserves[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The British Army has had much of it's manpower tied up in Iraq and Afghanistan the past 10 years. The result is much of the regulars are unavailable due to current missions, or are recovering from years in theater. Assembling, arming and transporting an effective ground force ready for major combat could be a challenge, especially given the current economic state. Also a factor is a public tired of years of war. In their favor is a large number of combat experienced troops armed with the latest weapons, body armor and tactics.
The
British navy is still formidable, but lacks the ability to bring air support, a vital ingredient in modern warfare. HMS Illustrious was reportedly converted to helicopter carrier. The other 2
carriers in the fleet, HMS Invincible & HMS Ark Royal, both have been decommissioned after almost 3 decades of distinguished service. If the Brits wish to field an airforce in theater, they will have to reach out to their allies, which includes an America with a Brit-phobic president prone to political gaffes.
The Royal Airforce has a history of bravery, and no one can honestly say their pilots lack ability.
What they lack however is planes. Current estimates put about 200 combat fighters in the force, 136 Panavia Tornado's and 71 Eurofighter Typhoon's. The Tornado's are being phased out for the Typhoons, which are notable for 2 things. They cost a crap load of cash and require an ace to fly. 2 things the Brits currently lack I'm afraid if reports of budget cuts and a lack of trainers and training time are true.
By comparison, the
Argentine navy has no carrier class ships, however the location of theater would allow for land based air operations. Sea combat would see them at a disadvantage due to a lack of capital class ships, and a relatively small navy (40 or so destroyer class or smaller). Air conflict also sees them disadvantaged in 1 on 1 conflicts due to fielding an
outdated air fleet.
In a conflict, IF the Brits can bring their superior air craft to theater, and field enough capital ships with support, air and sea supremacy would most likely favor them. That would leave a land confrontation as a deciding factor. If the Brits can land enough of a fighting force, their superior arms and more recent combat experience would most likely inflict heavy losses on any Argentinian forces that made land, however they would be a long way from home and at risk of supply line disruptions should chance favor Argentina.
Suk, Tez, your thoughts on this analysis?