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Tgace said:Apparently it does not....
Why?
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Tgace said:Apparently it does not....
Tgace said:See anybody calling for one?
Tgace said:Yet amazingly, not one of the thousands of lawyers hired by the DNC to monitor elections in Florida noted any irregularities. Nor did any Democratic volunteers working at the polls.
Indeed, they do not appear to have noticed any problems at all with the optical scans which they and their Republican partners counted together.
The most one can advocate from this is that electronic voting should produce paper receipts that can be used in a recount.
Tgace said:Yet amazingly, not one of the thousands of lawyers hired by the DNC to monitor elections in Florida noted any irregularities. Nor did any Democratic volunteers working at the polls. Indeed, they do not appear to have noticed any problems at all with the optical scans which they and their Republican partners counted together.
The most one can advocate from this is that electronic voting should produce paper receipts that can be used in a recount.
"...researchers examined numerous variables that might have affected the vote outcome. These included the number of voters, their median income, racial and age makeup and the change in voter turnout between the 2000 and 2004 elections. Using this information, they examined election results for the Republican and Democratic presidential candidates in the state in 1996, 2000 and 2004 to see how support for those candidates and parties measured over eight years in Florida's 67 counties."
They discovered that in the 15 counties using touch-screen voting systems, the number of votes granted to Bush far exceeded the number of votes Bush should have received -- given all of the other variables -- while the number of votes that Bush received in counties using other types of voting equipment lined up perfectly with what the variables would have predicted for those counties. The total number of excessive votes ranged between 130,000 and 260,000, depending on what kind of problem caused the excess votes. The counties most affected by the anomaly were heavily Democratic. "
"Sociology professor Michael Hout, who chairs the university's graduate Sociology and Demography group, said the chance for such a discrepancy to occur was less than 1 in 1,000. 'No matter how many factors and variables we took into consideration, the significant correlation in the votes for President Bush and electronic voting cannot be explained...'"
Executive summary:
Hmmmm. And who (cooked) figured these "statistics" again? Were they paid for by George Soros, the DNC or the World Workers Party?upnorthkyosa said:http://www.yuricareport.com/ElectionAftermath04/BerkeleyElection04_WP.pdf
Because many factors impact voting results, statistical tools are necessary to see the effect of touch-screen voting. Multiple regression analysis is a statistical technique widely used in the social and physical sciences to distinguish the individual effects of many variables. This multiple-regression analysis takes account of the following variables by county: (1) number of voters, (2) median income, (3) Hispanic population, (4) change in voter turnout between 2000 and 2004, (5) support for President Bush in 2000 election, (6) support for Dole in 1996 election...
When one controls for these factors, the association between electronic voting and increased support for President Bush is impossible to overlook. The data show with 99.0% certainty that a county’s use of electronic voting is associated with a disproportionate increase in votes for President Bush.
(note - confidence levels are formally tested for significance at a predetermined level, typically 95% or 99%. So 99% would be quoted as the result of confidence testing, as a minimum. That said, the actual confidence figure can be calculated backwards, and when this is done turns out to be closer to 99.9%. Hence the two figures of 99.0% and 99.9% cited in the summary)
Key findings:
Irregularities associated with electronic voting machines may have awarded 130,000 excess votes or more to President George W. Bush in Florida.
Compared to counties with paper ballots, counties with electronic voting machines were significantly more likely to show increases in support for President Bush between 2000 and 2004. This effect cannot be explained by differences between counties in income, number of voters, change in voter turnout, or size of Hispanic/Latino population.
In Broward County alone, President Bush appears to have received approximately 72,000 excess votes.
We can be 99.9% sure that these effects are not attributable to chance.
upnorthkyosa said:
Well, North, since a large NUMBER of mathmaticians said that the study was absurd and never should have been published without peer review, let me see.....One fruitcake sociology professor from The People's Republic of Berkley with an ax to grind, versus several noted experts in the field of statistics and probability.....hmmmmmm. Those experts didn't say they disagreed with his conclusions, they said that they feel he pulled the numbers out of thin air, as they don't even make sense. I guess you'll just fall back on what supports your theory...Reality be damned.upnorthkyosa said:Not everyone agrees with McCullough's analysis. His main objection is the margins used for modelling. I seriously doubt that you could tell me exactly what they did wrong or why their conclusion that there is a correlation between voting machines and anomolies that favor Bush is right on.
Here's another couple of studies.
http://www.indybay.org/uploads/ohiovoting.pdf
http://uscountvotes.org/ucvAnalysis/US/exit-polls/USCV_exit_poll_analysis.pdf
http://uscountvotes.org/ucvAnalysis/US/Exit_Polls_2004_Edison-Mitofsky.pdf
http://uscountvotes.org/ucvAnalysis/NM/NMAnalysis_EL_JM.pdf
http://www.votersunite.org/info/SnohomishElectionFraudInvestigation.pdf
I supposed all of these have "cooked the books" too. Here is a more plausible theory as to why there has been no real investigation. The Republicans control both houses and they won't allow it for whatever reason.
Here is a history of the academic debate surrounding the election results.
http://uscountvotes.org/ucvAnalysis/US/Presidential-Election-2004.pdf
sgtmac_46 said:All these sites keep using the same, already debunked, studies.
The 'history' of this debate you posted earlier, is a handful political hack websites with MORE falsified information. How many times are you going to use the work of fringe nuts as 'evidence'?upnorthkyosa said:Debunked by whom? Care to elaborate? I would like to see something specific regarding each of the studies presented. Of course, this has already been done. Check the history of this debate that I posted earlier.
Smoke and mirrors, north, smoke and mirrors. Not one two-bit would-be special prosecutor with delusions of grandeur and visions of a high-place in a future democratic administration, has shown an interest in this 'conspiracy theory'. Why? Because they know there is nothing there. You folks have more to gain by running around crying 'conspiracy, conspiracy', because it doesn't require a burden of proof. This, despite the fact that they are focusing on other nebulous accusations, such as violations of vague finance laws and, the as yet not even declared illegal, outing of a CIA agent.upnorthkyosa said:The CIA leak investigation is how many years old? The 2004 election debacle just turned a year old this month. BTW - congress has been plenty active on this issue. You just have to pay attention and let the system work.
sgtmac_46 said:The 'history' of this debate you posted earlier, is a handful political hack websites with MORE falsified information.
upnorthkyosa said:"Falsified by whom? The numbers are a matter of public record. People testified under oath and their allegations were verified independently for the congressional report. Now, the GAO confirms that there were numerous security problems."
Or, the problem is that there is no crime. You've failed to establish one very important fact....Corpus Delicti. You can't even prove a crime has been committed...that's the first step. The fact that nobody has been 'caught redhanded' is a secondary consideration, if a crime has been committed. You can't even prove a CRIME has been committed.upnorthkyosa said:One of the problems is that no one was caught red handed.
The GOP doesn't control criminal investigations, as evidenced by numerous investigations currently being conducted by special prosecutors.upnorthkysoa said:I know for a fact that there has been no real investigation on this...only data gathering. The only thing the Republicans would agree to was the investigation that the GAO performed...and that was strictly controlled. The GOP has shut this debate down a total of three times in the past year with absolutely no justification. However, I think now, especially with this new information, people will begin to connect the dots. It can't be shut down forever. I predict that if the Dems take one of the houses in 2006, we'll see an investigation.
Yeah, I have a specific criticism....A LARGE NUMBER OF EXPERTS, with far more expertise than a 'political hack sociology professor' (with a history of half-baked assertions) SAY it's all JIBBERISH, absolutely meaningless, based on false assumptions and faulty models. That's a good start.upnorthkyosa said:Again, do you have any specific criticisms of the statistical studies that would cause someone to not take them seriously?
sgtmac_46 said:Serious researchers have all but laughed at their 'numbers'.
Or, the problem is that there is no crime. You've failed to establish one very important fact....Corpus Delicti. You can't even prove a crime has been committed...that's the first step. The fact that nobody has been 'caught redhanded' is a secondary consideration, if a crime has been committed. You can't even prove a CRIME has been committed.
The GOP doesn't control criminal investigations, as evidenced by numerous investigations currently being conducted by special prosecutors.
As for 'the new information', it might be taken more seriously, except for one minor inconvenience....IT'S BOGUS!
Yeah, I have a specific criticism....A LARGE NUMBER OF EXPERTS, with far more expertise than a 'political hack sociology professor' (with a history of half-baked assertions) SAY it's all JIBBERISH, absolutely meaningless, based on false assumptions and faulty models. That's a good start.
mrhnau said:How unfair. We should have won again... If we -ever- lose an election, it MUST be because of voting fraud, and NOT because of our political standings, since they so obviously reflect the majority of Americans.
If you wanted to beat Bush, stick him up against someone who could actually win.
Election fraud is not something new I'm afraid. It's been played by both sides probably as long as voting has occured.
Proclaiming the Dem's to be pristine pictures of virtue is hardly the truth in this situation. However they are the ones that lost (in general), and love making emotion appeal about the "possibility" of fraud taking place.
Think it was legitimate that recounts only took place in highly democratic regions of Florida?
What Gore did was -bad- for the US in my opinion, and internationally embarassing. Set a bad precedent that still had repurcussions today.
What we have here in the Diebold situation is even better... you don't have a paper trail, so you claim systematic vote rigging. You can't prove, so you have the opportunity for continuous whining.
Do you understand how many people are probably involved in checking these machines? How many people probably had to test them? Its not an easy or short process.
So, you think the entire workforce of Diebold was in cahoots? You just don't sneak in, flip a little "republican" switch, and change the overall vote.
With regard to the specifics, I've made suggestions previously in this thread. Lets discuss those. Rather than whining and pointing to your handful of statisticians, lets see what we can do to fix the situation, if indeed there was one. Lets look at the election and see what the problems were and fix them. I don't think any Republicans are against that. Not sure if any recourse -can- be done if there were a problem, but finding out how to help future elections is the best route, and perhaps some form of financial punishment if indeed elections were tampered with. Thats still to be explored.
While we are at it, lets explore some other things. Lets explore Democratic pushes to put known felons on the voting roster. Lets invoke a procedure of correlating deaths and removal from voting polls. Lets invoke procedures for disallowing people who vote twice from having their second votes counted. Lets invoke photo ID's along with their vote taking. I think this would also help clear up the voting process. Sadly, I think this would not favor democrats, so they are not crying out for it. Not heard a word from the press or democrats on these topics. I find them still compelling.