Last Poster #7

[Steve]

The hardest part for me is knowing that trying to provide evidence and debate only hardens their position. I want to help them figure it out, but that's not how the psychology of this works, apparently.

From the article I posted in the Dunning Kruger thread:

"An ignorant mind is precisely not a spotless, empty vessel, but one that’s filled with the clutter of irrelevant or misleading life experiences, theories, facts, intuitions, strategies, algorithms, heuristics, metaphors, and hunches that regrettably have the look and feel of useful and accurate knowledge. This clutter is an unfortunate by-product of one of our greatest strengths as a species. We are unbridled pattern recognizers and profligate theorizers. Often, our theories are good enough to get us through the day, or at least to an age when we can procreate. But our genius for creative storytelling, combined with our inability to detect our own ignorance, can sometimes lead to situations that are embarrassing, unfortunate, or downright dangerous—especially in a technologically advanced, complex democratic society that occasionally invests mistaken popular beliefs with immense destructive power (See: crisis, financial; war, Iraq)."

This was written in 2014, and was eerily predictive. We've seen it on this forum. When you think about the Q and these whacky conspiracy theories, it's all about some folks taking advantage of patterns, along with a campaign to normalize the ignorance. "We're not wrong. It's the scientists and doctors who are wrong."

And as also noted in the article, and in the actual studies: "In fact, people who got none of the items right often expressed confidence that matched that of the top performers. Indeed, this study produced the most dramatic example of the Dunning-Kruger effect we had ever seen: When looking only at the confidence of people getting 100 percent versus zero percent right, it was often impossible to tell who was in which group."

 

[Steve]

Some additional passages from the article by Dunning that are so relevant now they're spooky:

"Doctors, too, are quite familiar with the problem of inappropriately transferred knowledge in their dealings with patients. Often, it’s not the medical condition itself that a physician needs to defeat as much as patient misconceptions that protect it."

"Some of our most stubborn misbeliefs arise not from primitive childlike intuitions or careless category errors, but from the very values and philosophies that define who we are as individuals. Each of us possesses certain foundational beliefs—narratives about the self, ideas about the social order—that essentially cannot be violated: To contradict them would call into question our very self-worth. As such, these views demand fealty from other opinions. And any information that we glean from the world is amended, distorted, diminished, or forgotten in order to make sure that these sacrosanct beliefs remain whole and unharmed.

One very commonly held sacrosanct belief, for example, goes something like this: I am a capable, good, and caring person. Any information that contradicts this premise is liable to meet serious mental resistance. Political and ideological beliefs, too, often cross over into the realm of the sacrosanct."

If folks haven't read the article, it's a terrific read. Long, but an excellent summary of Dunning Kruger bias, and also an interesting explanation of why we are seeing things play out as they are

We Are All Confident Idiots

The trouble with ignorance is that it feels so much like expertise. A leading researcher on the psychology of human wrongness sets us straight.

psmag.com

 

[dvcochran]

Well today was the worst day of my life so far I know Ill have more worst days coming. We got my wifes test results back today. Shes been battling pancreatic cancer since Oct 2020. Surgery Chemo and Radiation over the last year. She finished it all in Nov of 2021 and we thought everything was going well. Had her first set of scans and tests since and its back and spread to liver, an artery, and the lining of the abdominal cavity it has some long name I cant remember. And since shes still under 100 pounds from the first set of treatments they said she isnt healthy enough to try more chemo. Basically we were told there is nothing more we can do right now. So then we had to tell our kids. And still have to tell my daughter in bootcamp but we will wait until she finishes.
Im numb angry sad heartbroken worried all at the same time. Hug your loved ones folks because this really sucks. Sorry to vent here Im just trying to keep everything together in my real life.

So, so very sorry for the huge life struggle you are going through. I can tell by your last statement that you fully understand the implications and what is important in the bigger picture.
Love you kids and hold your family together. This is precious.
I do not know where your faith lies but I hope it is something you can lean on.
My prayers for you and your family.

 

[Xue Sheng]

Thanks, everybody, for your concern and kind thoughts. I'm okay, just self isolating from everything and everybody. Even the forum, because, you know....computer viruses. (see what I did there?)

I'm semi retired from Law Enforcement, might go back one night a week if this pandemic ever ends. I'm also semi retired from Martial Arts. Supposed to teach some guys, but again, this pandemic stuff has thrown a wrench into our plans.

In the meantime, my wife had bought me a great big TV. And because I'm semi retired, been smoking fatties, picking oranges from the back yard, drinking screwdrivers and binge watching a whole bunch of movies and TV series.

I could get used to this.

The world no longer makes sense to me. Friends I've known for fifty years have become radicalized. Can't really figure out how that happened. It's like I didn't even know them anymore. They've become Clockwork Oranged. Kind of scary.

Frankly...I'm really getting tired of all the fear myself.....everywhere.

What you need is a nice warm glass of sake....and a lot of Taijiquan....

Relax, enjoy Hawaii, semi-retirement, taiji and have a drink on me.... and the heck with everybody else.

But, just so you know.... I'm ok with Semi-retirement.... but if you go to full retirement.... I simply cannot like. you anymore...mostly out of envy and jealousy...but that is how it is...at least until roughly March 2027...then you'll be ok again...because I too should be retired by then

 

[Xue Sheng]

Well today was the worst day of my life so far I know Ill have more worst days coming. We got my wifes test results back today. Shes been battling pancreatic cancer since Oct 2020. Surgery Chemo and Radiation over the last year. She finished it all in Nov of 2021 and we thought everything was going well. Had her first set of scans and tests since and its back and spread to liver, an artery, and the lining of the abdominal cavity it has some long name I cant remember. And since shes still under 100 pounds from the first set of treatments they said she isnt healthy enough to try more chemo. Basically we were told there is nothing more we can do right now. So then we had to tell our kids. And still have to tell my daughter in bootcamp but we will wait until she finishes.
Im numb angry sad heartbroken worried all at the same time. Hug your loved ones folks because this really sucks. Sorry to vent here Im just trying to keep everything together in my real life.

DANG

I am very sorry to hear this... other than that I am at a loss for words....... very very sorry

 

[granfire]

Well today was the worst day of my life so far I know Ill have more worst days coming. We got my wifes test results back today. Shes been battling pancreatic cancer since Oct 2020. Surgery Chemo and Radiation over the last year. She finished it all in Nov of 2021 and we thought everything was going well. Had her first set of scans and tests since and its back and spread to liver, an artery, and the lining of the abdominal cavity it has some long name I cant remember. And since shes still under 100 pounds from the first set of treatments they said she isnt healthy enough to try more chemo. Basically we were told there is nothing more we can do right now. So then we had to tell our kids. And still have to tell my daughter in bootcamp but we will wait until she finishes.
Im numb angry sad heartbroken worried all at the same time. Hug your loved ones folks because this really sucks. Sorry to vent here Im just trying to keep everything together in my real life.

Man, I am so sorry to year that
Many hugs and prayers.

 

[Dirty Dog]

Well today was the worst day of my life so far I know Ill have more worst days coming. We got my wifes test results back today. Shes been battling pancreatic cancer since Oct 2020. Surgery Chemo and Radiation over the last year. She finished it all in Nov of 2021 and we thought everything was going well. Had her first set of scans and tests since and its back and spread to liver, an artery, and the lining of the abdominal cavity it has some long name I cant remember. And since shes still under 100 pounds from the first set of treatments they said she isnt healthy enough to try more chemo. Basically we were told there is nothing more we can do right now. So then we had to tell our kids. And still have to tell my daughter in bootcamp but we will wait until she finishes.
Im numb angry sad heartbroken worried all at the same time. Hug your loved ones folks because this really sucks. Sorry to vent here Im just trying to keep everything together in my real life.

I'm so sorry. If you need someone who has been there, done that, PM me.

 

[ballen0351]

I seriously dont deserve my wife. She is handling the news far better the I am. She said today that atleast she now has an opportunity to say goodbye and make awesome memories for the kids. She said I could drive to the store to pick up dinner and die in a car accident and never had an opportunity for closure. Atleast now I know and I can make the best of every last second I have.

 

[Xue Sheng]

I don't know what came over me, but I wanted to read about Quantum Physics again. Got a book from the library and I'm going to read it

 

[Oily Dragon]

I got a fever. First test said it's not COVID, still feels rotten.

Always on a weekend.

 

[Steve]

I got a fever. First test said it's not COVID, still feels rotten.

Always on a weekend.

The only prescription is more cow bell.

Seriously, though, hope you feel better. Sucks, and on a holiday weekend, too.

 

[Dirty Dog]

I got a fever. First test said it's not COVID, still feels rotten.

Always on a weekend.

Sorry you're sick.
The home rapid tests have a rather high false-negative rate, especially for the Omicron variant. Give it a couple days, and if you're still sick, re-test. And make sure the sample is good. Honestly, this sounds gross, but you really want some snot on the swab.

 

[Xue Sheng]

I got a fever. First test said it's not COVID, still feels rotten.

Always on a weekend.

Hope you feel better, and it may not be corona, it could be the flu

 

[Xue Sheng]

Had my physical today, blood work was good....and I'm an inch taller

 

[jks9199]

Well today was the worst day of my life so far I know Ill have more worst days coming. We got my wifes test results back today. Shes been battling pancreatic cancer since Oct 2020. Surgery Chemo and Radiation over the last year. She finished it all in Nov of 2021 and we thought everything was going well. Had her first set of scans and tests since and its back and spread to liver, an artery, and the lining of the abdominal cavity it has some long name I cant remember. And since shes still under 100 pounds from the first set of treatments they said she isnt healthy enough to try more chemo. Basically we were told there is nothing more we can do right now. So then we had to tell our kids. And still have to tell my daughter in bootcamp but we will wait until she finishes.
Im numb angry sad heartbroken worried all at the same time. Hug your loved ones folks because this really sucks. Sorry to vent here Im just trying to keep everything together in my real life.

Oh, wow...

I wish there was more to say or do.

 

[seasoned]

Had my physical today, blood work was good....and I'm an inch taller

I want the name of your doctor......for an appointment.

 

[Xue Sheng]

I want the name of your doctor......for an appointment.

I actually was an inch taller. But it had little to do with him and more to do with Physical Therapy.

Before the knee surgeries I was 6'1", by the time the 2 meniscus repairs and the replacement were done I was 5'11". Then after the knee replacement, PT noticed my knees weren't straightening. With PTs help the are straightening and I am now 6'. I'm currently chalking the loss of the extra inch to age.

As far as the blood work goes, I blame my wife for continually telling me..."Don't eat that, its not good for you." The trials and tribulations to being married to an OMD/PhD in TCM

 

[seasoned]

I actually was an inch taller. But it had little to do with him and more to do with Physical Therapy.

Before the knee surgeries I was 6'1", by the time the 2 meniscus repairs and the replacement were done I was 5'11". Then after the knee replacement, PT noticed my knees weren't straightening. With PTs help the are straightening and I am now 6'. I'm currently chalking the loss of the extra inch to age.

As far as the blood work goes, I blame my wife for continually telling me..."Don't eat that, its not good for you." The trials and tribulations to being married to an OMD/PhD in TCM

I definitely agree with you. At my age I'm a bit shorter which is attributed to gravity and it hurts to stand up straight. Training and stretching are my only saving grace.

 

[granfire]

It takes some effort some days, not to shuffle around like Grandpa used to do......
or to hunch......
SOmetimes seeing my reflection in the glass doors of the store helps - for a few minutes.

 

[Xue Sheng]

Got a Covid Antibody test out of curiosity..... you may find this comes as a shock.... apparently I had Covid, and a vaccine (not the booster yet)....it appears I have the antibodies