Last Poster #7

[Gerry Seymour]

Look at the total death number for 2018, 2019, & 2020. They are not all that different

I can't find any reliable source for this. The best I've been able to find used a preliminary (incomplete YTD) number for 2020 that, at best, was missing more than two months of data (was published in November 2020, and the CDC data runs February-January).

 

[Gerry Seymour]

Ok, I swear I saw this yesterday. I remember, because it through me off that they've got jersey mike's all the way by you. Did you submit a similar post already, or am I stuck in some weird time loop/possibly prophetic?

I've heard some folks saying you were pretty prophetic.

I'm pretty sure that's what they were saying.

 

[Monkey Turned Wolf]

I can't find any reliable source for this. The best I've been able to find used a preliminary (incomplete YTD) number for 2020 that, at best, was missing more than two months of data (was published in November 2020, and the CDC data runs February-January).

CDC publishes a mortality pdf for each year, and hidden within that they include how many deaths occurred that year. I checked out of curiosity. Tagging @Steve and @dvcochran since they're the ones that were actually discussing this. Keep in mind I'm not making any interpretation of this data, just supplying it. I'll offer some limited interpretation in my next post. I also didn't cross-reference the data to population of each year.

In 2017: 2,813,503
In 2018: 2,839,205
In 2019: 2,854,838
In 2020: 3,358,814. They also specified in this report that 377,883 were from covid.

So from 2017 to 2018 that's a .91% increase.
From 2018 to 2019 that's a .55% increase.
From 2019 to 2020 that's a 17.65% increase.

If any of you want to fact-check or read this further to see method's of gathering data, etc. Here's a link to one of them. If you search for the same name just change the year at the end you'll see the others. Products - Data Briefs - Number 355 - January 2020

 

[Steve]

I heard some recent discussion of that immunity drop-off with vaccines. Apparently, at least in part, that's how vaccines and the immune system work. There's a large immune response early, that matures (my term, probably not a scientific term) over time. There are many antibodies early, but as the response matures, there are fewer, more potent, antibodies.

What remains to be seen is whether that drop-off in antibody count from the vaccine is solely from this maturation, or if it means we'll need annual boosters or some such.

Periodic boosters, probably, but we'll see. Can we all just get over this idea that vaccines and boosters is a big deal? Because it's really not. We've been getting boosters all our lives.

The most vexing thing about these misinformation campaigns is that they convince easily manipulated people into thinking that things we've done all our lives are now unamerican or anti-freedom.

Who do you know that contracted lockjaw (aka tetanus?) I'm guessing none, because we get periodic boosters. Some viruses have been entirely eradicated by vaccines, like polio and smallpox. When my mom was a kid in the late 40s and early 50s, there was a real fear that kids would contract polio, though it's not an issue at all now. And the last outbreak of smallpox in the USA was in 1949.

In contrast, viruses like measles and mumps that were virtually eradicated due to herd immunity as a result of vaccination are making a comeback because some easily manipulated people are being fed misinformation that is actually dangerous to them and to others.

 

[Steve]

CDC publishes a mortality pdf for each year, and hidden within that they include how many deaths occurred that year. I checked out of curiosity. Tagging @Steve and @dvcochran since they're the ones that were actually discussing this. Keep in mind I'm not making any interpretation of this data, just supplying it. I'll offer some limited interpretation in my next post. I also didn't cross-reference the data to population of each year.

In 2017: 2,813,503
In 2018: 2,839,205
In 2019: 2,854,838
In 2020: 3,358,814. They also specified in this report that 377,883 were from covid.

So from 2017 to 2018 that's a .91% increase.
From 2018 to 2019 that's a .55% increase.
From 2019 to 2020 that's a 17.65% increase.

If any of you want to fact-check or read this further to see method's of gathering data, etc. Here's a link to one of them. If you search for the same name just change the year at the end you'll see the others. Products - Data Briefs - Number 355 - January 2020

There's also a lot of analysis on what is referred to as "excess death." Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

 

[Monkey Turned Wolf]

CDC publishes a mortality pdf for each year, and hidden within that they include how many deaths occurred that year. I checked out of curiosity. Tagging @Steve and @dvcochran since they're the ones that were actually discussing this. Keep in mind I'm not making any interpretation of this data, just supplying it. I'll offer some limited interpretation in my next post. I also didn't cross-reference the data to population of each year.

In 2017: 2,813,503
In 2018: 2,839,205
In 2019: 2,854,838
In 2020: 3,358,814. They also specified in this report that 377,883 were from covid.

So from 2017 to 2018 that's a .91% increase.
From 2018 to 2019 that's a .55% increase.
From 2019 to 2020 that's a 17.65% increase.

If any of you want to fact-check or read this further to see method's of gathering data, etc. Here's a link to one of them. If you search for the same name just change the year at the end you'll see the others. Products - Data Briefs - Number 355 - January 2020

So my limited view of this data- I was very surprised at just how consistent it was between 2017 and 2019. Thinking about it though, it makes sense as there is a massive sample size to filter out any outliers. I'm less surprised that there was consistent small increases. I'm curious to go back further to compare and see how long that consistency held up from before 2017. That makes the sudden increase in 2020 much more poignant, and it's telling that even if you take the covid deaths out, you're left with 2,980,931 deaths. Which is still a significant increase compared to the other years.

The three reasons that I can see for this are 1: just an irregularity, an increase of 4.42% is still irregular but closer than the initial increase of 17.65%. 2: That there were more deaths resulting from covid then stated. 3: That other deaths as a result of covid may have occurred. These would be deaths like the guy who needed an intensive cardiac unit, but none had beds due to covid patients within the state that he was located so he had to be airlifted out to a different state and died as a result of the delay.

I've got no idea which one it is, that's the job of a statistician with more free time and drive to look at this then I've got. I'm sure if you look further into the reports, or similar reports that came out in the weeks following the 2020 mortality report you'd find that someone went through to examine the cause of the increase.

 

[Gerry Seymour]

So my limited view of this data- I was very surprised at just how consistent it was between 2017 and 2019. Thinking about it though, it makes sense as there is a massive sample size to filter out any outliers. I'm less surprised that there was consistent small increases. I'm curious to go back further to compare and see how long that consistency held up from before 2017. That makes the sudden increase in 2020 much more poignant, and it's telling that even if you take the covid deaths out, you're left with 2,980,931 deaths. Which is still a significant increase compared to the other years. The three reasons that I can see for this are 1: just an irregularity, an increase of 4.42% is still irregular but closer than the initial increase of 17.65%. 2: That there were more deaths resulting from covid then stated. 3: That other deaths as a result of covid may have occurred. These would be deaths like the guy who needed an intensive cardiac unit, but none had beds due to covid patients within the state that he was located so he had to be airlifted out to a different state and died as a result of the delay.

I've got no idea which one it is, that's the job of a statistician with more free time and drive to look at this then I've got. I'm sure if you look further into the reports, or similar reports that came out in the weeks following the 2020 mortality report you'd find that someone went through to examine the cause of the increase.

Given that Covid protocols dramatically reduced influenza incidence, there are almost certainly fewer deaths due to influenza (I've not looked into the reporting data, but I'd expect it to be skewed by people being unwilling to go to a medical facility during the pandemic). If that's true, the numbers are even further off the norm.

 

[Monkey Turned Wolf]

There's also a lot of analysis on what is referred to as "excess death." Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

Cool, I actually mentioned that there was probably something like this in my last post.

Ok, so assuming that's correct (I get the feeling it's a lot tougher to determine excess death, and debate around it), you've got somewhere between 656,430 and 830,443, which averaged is 743,436.5. I'm being lazy with my math now, so this part will be a very rough estimate-given that it's been 10 months in 2020 and 9.5 months in 2021, I'm going to just halve that number for 2020. That comes out to 371,718.25 or rounded 371,718. If that's correct, then there'd actually only be 2,609,213 covid deaths in 2020. I have doubts anyone's taken that number and done additional research on it yet though to determine why, with covid out of the equation, there'd be a decrease for the first time in 3 years, and a (probably) statistically significant one at that.

 

[Steve]

Ugh. This COVID stuff led me to go back and review some of the previous threads on the topic. Everything was so predictable. I wrote this about herd immunity just over a year go.

In a different area, we have something relatively new being floated in the USA: herd immunity. Now, there is nothing new about the concept of herd immunity. It manifests in different ways. But what is new is this idea that we should attempt to eradicate a virus that is known to be very dangerous by simply allowing everyone to get it. This is what the kooks are suggesting, and we know that in Sweden, where they tried it, it didn't go so well. A lot of folks died who probably didn't need to die.

So, to be clear, herd immunity isn't the issue. The issue is how we work toward achieving it. And the answer is, through a vaccine. How did we achieve herd immunity from the small pox? Polio? The mumps? Various strains of measles? Deadly viruses like the small pox, or pernicious ones like Polio, are not the kinds of diseases where you just allow everyone to become infected. Instead, you develop a vaccine and you vaccinate everyone. We have herd immunity from the mumps because enough people vaccinate their kids to achieve it. And we know that when dumb anti-vaxxers don't vaccinate enough of their kids, mumps makes a resurgence.

Just for consideration, if everyone in the country gets Covid19, and the death rate is 1%, we're talking over 2 million lives lost.

So, if a vaccine is the means for achieving herd immunity, and trust in the agency responsible for approving the vaccine has been compromised because the people in charge have politicized their processes, where does that leave us? We've had folks in this thread already say that they won't be taking the first round of vaccines. That's really sad.

We now know where that leaves us.

 

[Steve]

I just realized that my 13 year old has never seen Wayne's World. I think we'll need to rectify that this weekend.

 

[Monkey Turned Wolf]

I just realized that my 13 year old has never seen Wayne's World. I think we'll need to rectify that this weekend.

I have also never seen wayne's world.

 

[granfire]

You are perfectly describing the ensuing problem. Are you saying people should get vaccinated every 8 months? Because some people will, some people already have.
Overuse is exactly how resistance to drugs begins. Studies support that natural resistance is much more effective than synthetics. Approved or not we are using a vaccine that does not have a proven track record. This in undeniable.
No person can fully explain the wide variability in how this virus affects people. However, the data for 2019-2021 and possibility beyond will always be skewed. Tracing is virtually non-existent.
Look at the total death number for 2018, 2019, & 2020. They are not all that different.

Your latter quote is the ONLY reason I am getting vaccinated. The data does support lessening affects if a person catches the virus.
I have had direct exposure several times so far with no affect. My wife, who has a very different makeup and her own 'pre-existing' conditions has had more exposure than me. Thankfully, neither of us has had an issue.
That is not to say we have not been sick. Remember, getting the crud and getting covid are exclusive, not inclusive as the media wants everyone to believe.

Ah, you are looking at the wrong info.
Maybe @Dirty Dog has a professional answer, but the Vaccine is just that, a vaccine, not a shot.
And I have not heard of a resistance to vaccines being developed by using one. Rather resistant strains are being bred by people who do not vaccinate and merrily spread the vorus about the community.
The Alpha variant was believed to slowly mutate about every 30th infection, a minor change
Now, however after we have seen several accelerated waves and several new variants (Lamda is the one to look out for) who knows.
You get a tetanus shot when you step on a rusty nail don't you, even if the previous booster was less than 10 years out.

And BTW, Tetanus, when started from scratch has a similar schedule as now suggested for COVID shots: 1sr and 2nd a month apart, then 6 months later a third shot. 10 years after that, or whenever a critical injury (like rusty nails) occurs.

What is the regimen for your lifestock? Spring shots, whether they are actually 'needed' or not.
because the ounce of prevention.....

 

[granfire]

I have also never seen wayne's world.

SHUNN

 

[Steve]

I have also never seen wayne's world.

Oh my. One of the most quotable movies ever... up there with the Princess Bride in that regard. A true classic.

 

[Steve]

I'm gonna go with the prophetic.

Better than being bathetic.

 

[Dirty Dog]

Ah, you are looking at the wrong info.
Maybe @Dirty Dog has a professional answer, but the Vaccine is just that, a vaccine, not a shot.

Well, it's a shot... but that just means a liquid given by injection.

And I have not heard of a resistance to vaccines being developed by using one.

That is correct. You don't develop a resistance to vaccines. The virus can (and generally does) mutate so it's not as affected by the vaccine. So the vaccines are constantly being updated as new information comes in and new strains are found.

Rather resistant strains are being bred by people who do not vaccinate and merrily spread the vorus about the community.

You are correct.

You get a tetanus shot when you step on a rusty nail don't you, even if the previous booster was less than 10 years out.

Urban myth. Nails, rusty or not, are irrelevant. You can get tetanus from any cut, if you're not vaccinated. Puncture wounds (again, regardless of the source) are more prone to infections in general. Unlike Covid, though, nobody has politicized tetanus shots. And most people are covered. So you'll look far and wide before you find an actual infection.

And BTW, Tetanus, when started from scratch has a similar schedule as now suggested for COVID shots: 1sr and 2nd a month apart, then 6 months later a third shot. 10 years after that, or whenever a critical injury (like rusty nails) occurs.

Current recommendations are to get a tetanus booster every 10 years, 5 if you get cut. We recommend don't. I tell people to pretend it's 2020, and get a booster every time the year ends in zero.

 

[Buka]

Better than being bathetic.

I had to look up "Bathetic".
Nice word.

 

[Steve]

I had to look up "Bathetic".
Nice word.

It's a great word. Where pathos is something that is sad, bathos is something that is supposed to be sad (or serious) but isn't. I tend to think of it being unintentional, though it can be used on purpose to good effect in comedy.

 

[dvcochran]

Ah, you are looking at the wrong info.
Maybe @Dirty Dog has a professional answer, but the Vaccine is just that, a vaccine, not a shot.
And I have not heard of a resistance to vaccines being developed by using one. Rather resistant strains are being bred by people who do not vaccinate and merrily spread the vorus about the community.
The Alpha variant was believed to slowly mutate about every 30th infection, a minor change
Now, however after we have seen several accelerated waves and several new variants (Lamda is the one to look out for) who knows.
You get a tetanus shot when you step on a rusty nail don't you, even if the previous booster was less than 10 years out.

And BTW, Tetanus, when started from scratch has a similar schedule as now suggested for COVID shots: 1sr and 2nd a month apart, then 6 months later a third shot. 10 years after that, or whenever a critical injury (like rusty nails) occurs.

What is the regimen for your lifestock? Spring shots, whether they are actually 'needed' or not.
because the ounce of prevention.....

I merely asked a question based on a comment made. The inference being that repeat shots on a short frequency would be necessary.

If you follow the history there are huge differences between this shot and the tetanus shot.

Resistance is resistance.

As far as cattle, established cattle once per year and new cattle and calves twice per year.
What is given is based on their health checks and BCS.

I do not think you are comparing apples to apples.

 

[dvcochran]

Ah, you are looking at the wrong info.
Maybe @Dirty Dog has a professional answer, but the Vaccine is just that, a vaccine, not a shot.
And I have not heard of a resistance to vaccines being developed by using one. Rather resistant strains are being bred by people who do not vaccinate and merrily spread the vorus about the community.
The Alpha variant was believed to slowly mutate about every 30th infection, a minor change
Now, however after we have seen several accelerated waves and several new variants (Lamda is the one to look out for) who knows.
You get a tetanus shot when you step on a rusty nail don't you, even if the previous booster was less than 10 years out.

And BTW, Tetanus, when started from scratch has a similar schedule as now suggested for COVID shots: 1sr and 2nd a month apart, then 6 months later a third shot. 10 years after that, or whenever a critical injury (like rusty nails) occurs.

What is the regimen for your lifestock? Spring shots, whether they are actually 'needed' or not.
because the ounce of prevention.....

And BTW the original 1890 tetanus shot only lasted a few weeks. The latter vaccine of around the 1920's I believe is the same as the one used today. But you are arguing about something that had only about 500-600 cases in the 1940's post war. So again, not apples to apples.
Arguing for a vaccine that only needs a booster every 10 years (or as needed) versus every 10 month (or less) is, again, not apples to apples.
What is most surprising however is that the tetanus and diptheria vaccines appear to be beneficial in fighting covid. Go figure.

Ivermectin is used in cattle for internal parasites and external horn flies. The pour-on lasts about a month. Again, not apples to apples as most humans do not go around eating off the ground and nosing around in fly laden sxxt.
Based on the health checks and BSC meds for bovine pneumonia, blackleg, IBR, BVD, BVR (which are respiratory, sometimes causing diarrhea) and sometimes Lepto are given, purely on a case by case basis. Blackleg being an exception.

Do you put a fly & tick collar on your dog or cat? Ivermectin is the same protocol for cattle.