Martial Tucker
Black Belt
funnytiger said:i'm going to disagree. and to say that "mental illness is no more prevalent among the homeless than in the general population" is a bit misleading when compared the population of the u.s. that is actually homeless. again, my experience is different with the homeless and i wouldn't expect anyone to agree with something they haven't experienced themselves. but its also important for all of us to keep in mind that our experiences as individuals are not a reflection of all of society. (including mine.) that's why we have statistics and (hopefully) impartial individuals to interpret them.
also, I agree completely with this statement: "I'm willing to bet a lunch and a few pints that you are more likely to be attacked by someone who does not look dangerous or potentially threatening at first glance" considering that most women who are either raped or sexually assualted is by either a friend or aquaintance. I'm not saying your wrong for suspecting that the seemingly innocent school girl on the corner might be packing heat, but rather that you shouldn't say that appearances should simply be disregarded. i don't think the saying, "you can't judge a book by its cover" is completely accurate. sometimes you can. :lookie:
I'm going to make a couple of more statements for clarification, then I'm done with this, because I think we're in about 90% agreement anyway.
First, when you're comparing two populations (or samples thereof) the relative sizes of either population is immaterial. You are still looking at/analyzing the proportion of each group that exhibits a certain characteristic in question. Your quoted statistics showed a mental illness
rate in the low 20% area for both the homeless population and the general population. Granted, those two groups may be MUCH different in other measured criteria, but in this discussion, we are only looking at the expected occurance of mental illness in a person selected at random from either group, and any Stat 101 student could tell you that given the data you provided, the likelihood is essentially equal.
As for fear of a "school girl on the corner packing heat", you're sensationalizing my example a bit. If a teenage girl that I don't know approaches me when I'm walking down the street, the first thing I'm going to do is glance over my shoulder to see if she's merely distracting me for an accomplice. My point was just to be leery, but not overreact when ANY stranger approaches.
Finally, as for saying that sometimes you CAN judge a book by it's cover,
I would say: Of course you can. And somtimes you can pick a winning race horse solely by the way he looks. But it's not the smart way to bet.
IMO, the bigger mistake is to be wrong about someone who appears harmless.
Anyway, I appreciate your thoughts and, as I said, I think we're mostly in agreement, and I'm moving on......