I think that everything you're saying makes perfect sense. I don't know how to say it in a way that is more clear. Nothing you say above is in conflict with anything I've said. Once again, being well trained is the first step toward becoming an expert in something.
There's something else here that's important to remember. Talking about pilots or LEO or nurses or airborne infantry is different than talking about crash landings, CPR, or parachute malfunctions. In the former group, we're talking about a broad skill set. In the latter, we're talking about a specific skill.
In any broad skill set or profession, the experience gained in the core skill set of the profession will be the foundation for success when encountering something outside the norm. For example, an inexperienced pilot will be well trained in emergency procedures. But when US Airways flight 1549 struck a flock of Canadian Geese on take off, don't you think Capt. Sullenberger's 20,000 flight hours and almost 5,000 hours in that specific model aircraft were salient to the successful crash landing?
Here's the real question. Do you guys believe that there's no practical difference between an experienced pilot like Capt. Sullenberger or someone who's logged 20,000 hours in a simulator? If you were thinking about attending a seminar on the realities of handling an in-flight emergency and water landing, would you find a guy who's run all the simulations to be equivalent to someone who's actually done it?