Bird Flu

[michaeledward]

The President just addressed the Bird Flu and the United States plan for a possible pandemic. He is requesting 1.2 billion dollars for vaccine to protect some 20 million Americans (presumably Health Care Workers and Republican Donors).

I think this is a scare tactic. The 'Terrorist Threat Alert' moving up and down is no longer working. We need a new bogey-man to keep us afraid. The President has suggested that an outbreak of Bird Flu could require the military to put in place a quarrantine. That is Martial Law by any other name.

HHS Secretary Leavitt said the President's goal is "the capacity for every American to have a vaccine in the case of a pandemic, no matter what the virus is.”

That goal is unreachable and unaffordable. We've got a new War folks .... War on Viruses.

Can't help but think how this ties back into America weakness in Science. And a stubborn refusal to look calmly at Random Mutation and Natural Selection (aka Evolution); "Every American vaccinated against Every Virus" What an idiot.

 

[Phoenix44]

I don't know if it's a scare tactic, but if he appoints "Heckuva Job Brownie" to head up the commission, I'll be terrified!

 

[Makalakumu]

This virus and posability of a pandemic is far more dangerous then anything a terrorist could cook up. I would rather spend money to defend myself against this stuff any day. The number one killer of humans throughout history has always been sickness/disease. We've held the plagues off for a while, but evolution happens. In my opinion, in this time of growing overpopulation, diseases are the last thing that we should underestimate/ignore.

 

[Shirt Ripper]

Capability to vaccinate all Americans sounds good to me. Even if it doesn't go down like some think it will. I have no problem with money being spent on preventative measures. It's better than the potential alternative.

 

[CrankyDragon]

Gotta keep the focus off the war...
Gotta keep the focus off the war...
Gotta....

 

[Don Roley]

I think this is a scare tactic. The 'Terrorist Threat Alert' moving up and down is no longer working. We need a new bogey-man to keep us afraid.

And I think you are just looking for another excuse to bash the president with rather strange conspiracy theories.

Have you looked at the fatality rates for bird flu? They scare the hell out of me. I think it is over 50 percent of the humans that get this thing die. If this thing mutated to a form that was easily transmitted from human to human, can you imagine just how many people would die? Think about how many people you know catch the flu every year. Then take the fatality rate and apply it to them.

If this is just a conspiracy theory scare tactic, then there are a lot of goverments in on the scam. Japan is scared silly over the idea. Have you seen the measures they are taking here, in Asia and now in Europe to contain this thing?

 

[Ronin Moose]

Friends, put the politics aside and spend a few minutes researching what an outbreak could do to us. This could take place during anyone's watch, Republican, Democrat or whatever. These virus know no political party; they just spread, mutate, multiply and KILL. I'm all for anyone in power stepping up to the plate and making the effort, and decisions required to keep us from suffering the fate of so many nations without the resources we have.

 

[Jonathan Randall]

And I think you are just looking for another excuse to bash the president with rather strange conspiracy theories.

Have you looked at the fatality rates for bird flu? They scare the hell out of me. I think it is over 50 percent of the humans that get this thing die. If this thing mutated to a form that was easily transmitted from human to human, can you imagine just how many people would die? Think about how many people you know catch the flu every year. Then take the fatality rate and apply it to them.

If this is just a conspiracy theory scare tactic, then there are a lot of goverments in on the scam. Japan is scared silly over the idea. Have you seen the measures they are taking here, in Asia and now in Europe to contain this thing?

I would have to note that a liberal site that I frequent was discussing bird flu and its grave threat FAR BEFORE THE ADMINISTRATION AND CONGRESS. Now, obviously I'm no fan of most of the current Admin's policies or I wouldn't be on the liberal site so often, but this is not made up for political reasons. That doesn't mean that many politicians of BOTH parties won't try to take advantage of it, but that fact of human nature doesn't make the threat less real.

Recommended reading: "The Great Influenza" by John M. Barry. It is about the 1918 Influenza which killed far more people than WW1 (1914-1918). This is a real threat. It may not occur THIS year, or next year but most scientists say that it is inevitable. It would be hard to slam the response at the Federal level (particularly FEMA) after Katrina, and then criticise PREEMPTIVE action on an even graver threat.

Like many people, I'm a mix of both conservative and liberal positions, but, despite my strong dislike for many of this Administration's actions, not everything is a party issue.

BTW, not going to give the name of the liberal site because I don't want to get THAT political on an MA forum. I can be close friends with and respect individuals who have completely opposite views from myself, but I recognize that many cannot.

On edit: I've read about, and vaguely remember, the Carter Admin's. rush to vaccinate during the Swine Flu scare of the 1970's. Despite being dead wrong, I think they took the right course of action. Same with the Bush admin. They may be wrong about it hitting soon, but they would be right about taking action. The stakes are too darn high and our capabilities are not substantially greater against a virus than they were in 1918 (this from several epidemiologists quoted in several books that I have read).

 

[michaeledward]

And I think you are just looking for another excuse to bash the president with rather strange conspiracy theories.

Have you looked at the fatality rates for bird flu? They scare the hell out of me. I think it is over 50 percent of the humans that get this thing die. If this thing mutated to a form that was easily transmitted from human to human, can you imagine just how many people would die? Think about how many people you know catch the flu every year. Then take the fatality rate and apply it to them.

If this is just a conspiracy theory scare tactic, then there are a lot of goverments in on the scam. Japan is scared silly over the idea. Have you seen the measures they are taking here, in Asia and now in Europe to contain this thing?

And what are the experts saying about the possibility of the virus mutating from an animal-to-human contagion to a human-to-human contagion?

The term I heard used was "Very Low".

Is it possible that the H5N1 virus could so mutate? Sure. Is it also possible that the H5N1 virus could mutate into an inoccuous virus, I would have to assume yes.

So, the experts don't know, and can't predict. And the President is launching a 7 Billion dollar campaign to prevent something that may never happen. In a recent News Conference (how many of those has he held), the President gave a more detailed answer to a question about the H5N1 virus, than he has answered to anything else. Hell, he almost sounded like he had a Clintonian understanding of this topic. (Go check the video/transcript yourself).

I find it symptomatic that the President has such a strong command of a Phantom Menace. There are many more things that our nation should be addressing.

This does not mean that we should ignore pathogens. Secretary Leavitt (HHS) should be working on flu virus monitoring and planning (hopefully better than Brownie). But this does not yet rise to the level of the President.

It has been speculated that the next step for the American Empire is to impose Martial Law. After the flooding of New Orleans, the President has asked for centralized control of the National Guard (taking it away from the governors), and the President has announced that an outbreak of 'bird flu' might require the Department of Defense to enforce quarrantine. That's beginning to sound an awful lot like Martial Law.

Being skeptical of the Government that might have created and released Lyme Disease and West Nile virus, is, I think prudent. Especially where viruses are concerned.

 

[Makalakumu]

Being skeptical of the Government that might have created and released Lyme Disease and West Nile virus, is, I think prudent. Especially where viruses are concerned.

Is there any credible information about this? I'm serious, I keep my tin hat in the closet where its easily donned. I've read some crazy stuff about this, but I am still skeptical.

 

[michaeledward]

Look for the book "Lab 257".

Off the Eastern end of the North Fork Long Island, there is Plum Island. In the late 40's & 50's the Military created a bio-lab to study the possibility of using germs to destroy the enemies food supply. One of the founding scientists was a German biologist who had worked with ticks as a method of transmission.

At some point, the Military withdrew its operations (leaving behind the actual viruses and germs they were working with) and the facility is now run by United States Department of Agriculture. The USDA does not have nearly as good security as the military. Additionally, the USDA has to fight harder for funding, and is more likely subject to political whims as compared to the military.

Lyme Disease and West Nile Virus (as well as a less well know duck virus) all originated in geographic proximity of this labratory.

As to how credible the information is ... <<shrugg>> ... but, it is not unreasonable.

 

[Makalakumu]

Look for the book "Lab 257".

Off the Eastern end of the North Fork Long Island, there is Plum Island. In the late 40's & 50's the Military created a bio-lab to study the possibility of using germs to destroy the enemies food supply. One of the founding scientists was a German biologist who had worked with ticks as a method of transmission.

At some point, the Military withdrew its operations (leaving behind the actual viruses and germs they were working with) and the facility is now run by United States Department of Agriculture. The USDA does not have nearly as good security as the military. Additionally, the USDA has to fight harder for funding, and is more likely subject to political whims as compared to the military.

Lyme Disease and West Nile Virus (as well as a less well know duck virus) all originated in geographic proximity of this labratory.

As to how credible the information is ... <<shrugg>> ... but, it is not unreasonable.

That book has now been added to my reading list. Thanks Mike. :asian:

 

[Makalakumu]

And what are the experts saying about the possibility of the virus mutating from an animal-to-human contagion to a human-to-human contagion?

The term I heard used was "Very Low".

Is it possible that the H5N1 virus could so mutate? Sure. Is it also possible that the H5N1 virus could mutate into an inoccuous virus, I would have to assume yes.

What has people worried is that this virus's genome is very close to the genome of the Spanish Flu. Scientists have already created the "Bird Flu" in labs by changing a few base pairs. How will it mutate? Good Question.

So, the experts don't know, and can't predict. And the President is launching a 7 Billion dollar campaign to prevent something that may never happen. In a recent News Conference (how many of those has he held), the President gave a more detailed answer to a question about the H5N1 virus, than he has answered to anything else. Hell, he almost sounded like he had a Clintonian understanding of this topic. (Go check the video/transcript yourself).

7 billion on a threat that could kill millions in this country alone vs hundreds on of billions on a (false) threat of Saddam's WMD. One one hand, its a step in the right direction, on another, its a gross misreading of the actual dangers. Imagine what we could do to our health care system if we spent all of the money that we spent in Iraq on it? Imagine the amount of people that could be saved from the terrorist germs?

I find it symptomatic that the President has such a strong command of a Phantom Menace. There are many more things that our nation should be addressing.

Definitely the "Cry Wolf" syndrome...

It has been speculated that the next step for the American Empire is to impose Martial Law. After the flooding of New Orleans, the President has asked for centralized control of the National Guard (taking it away from the governors), and the President has announced that an outbreak of 'bird flu' might require the Department of Defense to enforce quarrantine. That's beginning to sound an awful lot like Martial Law.

That is one thing that people need to realize. If this thing does break out, we will see martial law. All of the steps are in place. By a series of executive orders, FEMA could suspend almost all constitutional protections in the face of this emergency. The military would sweep in and we would have an instant police state. The President would have dictatorial powers. How comfortable are you in knowing that it is very possible that President Bush, through FEMA and a Bird Flu pandemic, could be handed dictatorial control over our country?

:uhohh:

upnorthkyosa

ps - personally, if Bird Flu really broke out, I might be so scared, I wouldn't even care...

 

[michaeledward]

BushCheney as a dictator scares the hell out of me.

Richard Nixon as a dictator does not.


Yes, spending money on the prudent preparation is a good thing. I think, we all thought, that the Department of Homeland Security, and FEMA were doing just that concerning New Orleans. But, mostly, we weren't think about it. If we were, I think most of us trust our government to be doing the things it is supposed to do; we expect the Emergency Management Administration to actually be preparing to Manage Emergencies.

Here, there is a department of Health and Human Services. Don't we all just expect that HHS is watching and planning for these types of outbreaks? Isn't that what HHS is supposed to be doing? Watching for TB outbreaks in the inner cities; monitoring anti-biotic resistant germs; and planning for the flu outbreaks.

I expect the President to get a 3 minute a month update on the status of these things, right up to the point they become a real threat (i.e. SARS).

That President Bush has taken a keen interest in the H5N1 virus is scary to me. As an alcoholic, I understand this behavior; fixating on something that is a potential (but not yet actualized) probelm, while ignoring real problems all around. Drunks are real good at that. Making Mountains out of Molehills.

Mr. President .... Let Secretary Leavitt deal with H5N1. Please Turn Your Attention to the al Anabar Province, and the debt you have saddled the country with, not to mention the illegality of those secret torture camps in Eastern Europe. Those are real problems, Mr. President. We can deal with the Birds later.

Also, did you hear how atmospheric sampling since 911 has discovered many new pathogens that are very closely genetically related to anthrax and bocciliiliium (you know the word I'm trying to spell). We are surrounded by germies and virusies that are genetically close to dangerous stuff. Remember, someone said humans share 95% of the DNA of a bannana ... how close something is to something else is not a safe measure of its danger, I think.

* * * * * * * * *

P.S. Can you believe some one is still defending Michael "You're doin' a heck of a job" Brown. I got an anonymous private note saying The Guard couldn't mobilize fast enough after Katrina either. Good God man ... the head of FEMA was a friggin Show Horse Judge. That's who you want managing your major disasters?

 

[Phoenix44]

Unfortunately, after the past 5 years, I no longer trust any information that comes from the Bush Administration, and that includes public health information. (The Office of National AIDS Policy website does not even list condoms as a preventive strategy). And the national response to the hurricanes does not give me confidence that we are up to managing any public health emergency.

In my opinion, we're on our own. Wash your hands a lot, use antimicrobial hand lotion, wear a mask on the subways, stay home, buy Tamiflu from Canada. The cavalry will not be coming.

 

[7starmantis]

BushCheney as a dictator scares the hell out of me.

Richard Nixon as a dictator does not.

um... Any dictator scares the hell out of me.....any!

I expect the President to get a 3 minute a month update on the status of these things, right up to the point they become a real threat (i.e. SARS).

And yet criticise these "3 minute a month updates" when the threat actually comes to term (i.e. Katrina).

We can deal with the Birds later.

NO you can't. Later is too late....the mortailty rate of this virus holds hard fast proof that "later" is not something to be considered in conjunction with this virus and probable pandemic. I'm not the type to scream pandemic and run and hide, but this possability and the agreement between scientist of its probablility to occur, well......

Also, did you hear how atmospheric sampling since 911 has discovered many new pathogens that are very closely genetically related to anthrax and bocciliiliium (you know the word I'm trying to spell). We are surrounded by germies and virusies that are genetically close to dangerous stuff. Remember, someone said humans share 95% of the DNA of a bannana ... how close something is to something else is not a safe measure of its danger, I think.

Thats why we have scientist to make these decisions. Your comparing DNA which because of its immensity isn't a good choice here. The difference between 95% and 100% of DNA is quite huge. Also, because other "germies" are out there doesn't mean we should ignore this one does it? I mean, you did quote "W" as saying all persons against all viruses right?

I'm not trying to protect the president or anything, but you blame him for not being prepared or acting quickly enough (i.e. Katrina) then jump him for becoming prepared in the face of deadly viruses? The war has nothing to do with this, this is something that needs attention with or without a war in Iraq.

7sm

 

[michaeledward]

And yet criticise these "3 minute a month updates" when the threat actually comes to term (i.e. Katrina).

Actually, I do not criticize the 3-minute-a-month updates that occurred prior to Katrina. I criticize that the execution of the plan (or the lack of execution of the lack of plan) after Hurricane Katrina Hit. Whatever planning is in place, should be executed competently. It was not. That deserves criticism.

I am not blaming the President for not being prepared. Someone other than the President should have been prepared for Katrina (Michael Brown - Michael Chertoff). I have blamed the President for lack of execution. The guy was playing a guitar while an American City was drowning. Please!

NO you can't. Later is too late....the mortailty rate of this virus holds hard fast proof that "later" is not something to be considered in conjunction with this virus and probable pandemic. I'm not the type to scream pandemic and run and hide, but this possability and the agreement between scientist of its probablility to occur, well......

And if Later never comes?

At the moment. Scientists think it is far more likely that, in the instance of H5N1, it will not become human-to-human transmittable.

And please site your scientist who claims the probability of mutation from Bird-to-Human transmission to Human-to-Human transmission. All reports I have seen said this mutation is possible at a "very low" probability.

Thats why we have scientist to make these decisions. Your comparing DNA which because of its immensity isn't a good choice here. The difference between 95% and 100% of DNA is quite huge. Also, because other "germies" are out there doesn't mean we should ignore this one does it? I mean, you did quote "W" as saying all persons against all viruses right?

The President is a scientist now? You are aware that it was President Bush who made the decision to invest 7 billion dollars to provide 'Every American' a vaccine against every virus'. The President is not a scientist. He thought 'Intelligent Design' should be taught in the classroom.

And actually, the quote about Every American Protect Against Every Virus was Michael Leavitt, Secretary of Health and Human Services, speaking directly on the President's initiative.

I'm not trying to protect the president or anything, but you blame him for not being prepared or acting quickly enough (i.e. Katrina) then jump him for becoming prepared in the face of deadly viruses? The war has nothing to do with this, this is something that needs attention with or without a war in Iraq.

7sm

Of course it needs attention. It needs attention from Health and Human Services. It needs attention from the Centers for Disease Control. It doesn't need attention from the President.

We can't ramp up a full scale assault on every possible threat (Unless you own stock in Halliburton or HCA) Priorities must be set.

 

[7starmantis]

And if Later never comes?

At the moment. Scientists think it is far more likely that, in the instance of H5N1, it will not become human-to-human transmittable.

And please site your scientist who claims the probability of mutation from Bird-to-Human transmission to Human-to-Human transmission. All reports I have seen said this mutation is possible at a "very low" probability.

Ever heard the old addage, "Better Safe Than Sorry"? If "later" never comes then what have we lost? We have learned more about these viruses and spent money improving the infrastructure of vacination in america. Then ask yourself what if "later" does come and we aren't ready....hundreds of millions of people dead....thats what we have lost then. The willingness to gamble with hundreds of millions of people's lifes is not somethin we can afford, regardless of the actual outcome.

I would love to see your sources for "Scientists think it is far more likely that, in the instance of H5N1, it will not become human-to-human transmittable". Thats simply not true and I have yet to see anyone say that its more likely not to become transferable. Possible with a probability is all I said. You just stated you heard it was probable (very low) yourself. Its a fact that this virus has already proven deadly for humans and is known to mutate....why exactly should we ignore those facts and do nothing? There is actually two mechanisms this virus could use to become human to human. One is a slow mutation, the other is a much quicker “reassortment” event, in which genetic material is exchanged between human and avian viruses during co-infection of a human or pig. Reassortment could result in a fully transmissible pandemic virus, announced by a sudden surge of cases with explosive spread. (World Health Organization)

The President is a scientist now? You are aware that it was President Bush who made the decision to invest 7 billion dollars to provide 'Every American' a vaccine against every virus'. The President is not a scientist. He thought 'Intelligent Design' should be taught in the classroom.

I didn't say that, I was refering to your own decision that this virus is of no consequence worthy of no more than a passing thought. Remember the president has his "3 minute a month" updates from the leading scientists...are you suggesting he made this decision without cause?

Of course it needs attention. It needs attention from Health and Human Services. It needs attention from the Centers for Disease Control. It doesn't need attention from the President.

Lets see, where does "Health and Human Services", "Centers for Disease Control" get their funding? What your saying is that the president shouldnt' concern himself with a virus that has met two of the three conditions of a pandemic?

We can't ramp up a full scale assault on every possible threat (Unless you own stock in Halliburton or HCA) Priorities must be set.

Priorities? So hundreds of millions of peopels lives is simply not a top priority in your book? This is simply not a "possible threat", it has allready taken the lives of americans and over 150 millions birds worldwide. This is no longer a simply threat but is now action. We must do something, even if it never infects another human, the consequences of the death of that many of our poultry could be pretty devistating itself.

7sm

 

[michaeledward]

....why exactly should we ignore those facts and do nothing?

I'm going to type this real slowly.

I am not advocating that the United States "do nothing". I am saying that this threat does not rise to the level of Presidential attention.

The President is a)allowing himself to be distracted from more important matters and b) working to cultivate fear in the populace.

 

[michaeledward]

Priorities? So hundreds of millions of peopels lives is simply not a top priority in your book? This is simply not a "possible threat", it has allready taken the lives of americans and over 150 millions birds worldwide. This is no longer a simply threat but is now action. We must do something, even if it never infects another human, the consequences of the death of that many of our poultry could be pretty devistating itself.

Pissing match on.

Priority = Yes .... Memo saying "Al Qaeda determined to Strike in US"

Priority = Not So Much .... Some birds got a virus that may (or may not) jump to human's

Pissing Match Off.


P.S. 7starmantis quoted some language from the World Health Organization. An excellent resource. Material found here:

http://pandemicflu.gov

Although, it is spooky that the government has this web site ... it does link to WHO, CDC & HHS