Under the Auto Pact, my country has a lot invested in the fortunes of GM, Ford and Daimler-Chrysler, so a collapse of the big three would certainly ricochet in Windsor and throughout the Province and country.
That said, how much money is going to keep this ship afloat? If they're in this much trouble, would we taxpayers be throwing good money after bad? If the feds, north or south of the fortieth, have the dollars to bail out the big three, maybe those resources should be invested in other players who can do the job better. My guess is that if a bunch of plants close in Windsor or Detroit, they'll probably be re-opened by Toyota, Hyundai, Honda, Nissan, Mazda, and all the rest.
If it comes down to keeping jobs, I'll bet the UAW would sit down with these other players and come up with something that keeps auto workers building cars.
Oshawa #1 #2 are always in the top for North America for Quality. Oshawa #1 just got a specific award from JD Power that they limit as it requires continued performance over time. This plant was in the top three for the last six or seven years. And number one for four or five of them. Not just Quality but for performance i.e. hours to build a vehicle - man hours.
Toyota actually looked at a Plant in Flint. GM was going to lease them the land so they would not have to worry about any liability for previous issues with the land. The area was in a federal renaisance zone. GM had agreed to pay its taxes but was not required too as of this zone. But GM did anyways as their agreement had included a percentage reduction. But the City of Flint that was bankrupt insisted that GM not only pay what the agreement was, but that it would go back to 100%. Toyota, walked away.
Toyota has a proving grounds going into the Michigan area, but that is because of the expertise in the area. I see no benefit of them to come to this area including Windsor to get trained hourly employees? The wages people would demand would get them to not consider it.
As to money and how much, I cannot say as I do not know even what the company I work for requires.
In January of 2010, all the agreements that the Union agreed to in the last contract negotiations goes 100% into place. This is the target point that the companies are targeting. If the volume goes back from 10.7 million anual units (* Octobers numbers lowest in over a decade *) to the 16 to 17 million of the last couple of years there is now problem, The issue is that at 11 to 12 million units a year, is enough to limp by on.
As I can only guess, I would expect about 12 Billion +/- 3 Billion per company would be the worst case.
These are loans, not money that does not come back. Of course there is risk if they still go under. So your questions is good and imporatant.
If they follow the 79/80 Chrysler plan of getting stock options at the low prices of today plus a percentage of interest, then the government could make money just like they did off of Chrysler in the 80's with the return.
The times that the government goes in and takes over, they have lost money as they seem to be worse that the people who got them into the trouble and also other companies bring suit that it is unfair to compete against the fed. So, if they take over one, it could be a problem for others, which could lead to a complete take over. But, I do not think it is a valid plan. I think that the loans with stock options or some other plan would be the best. As history has shown, past peformance does not guarentee success. But those invested into the company and the single largest provider for health care and pensions outside of state and federal government would be gone.
As I said, I see all sides of this, but part of would like to see them all fail, and to see how the people complain, that people they know are hurt by this and loose their house and eat poorly and or have worse health care. My sens of humor is bad in this case, as I actually volunteered to be cut, but was told I was not old enough. Only early retirements were offered. But I was serious and went up a couple of levels to make the offer. The issue I do not like threats of loss of job to work more hours for less pay. So, I decided to risk finding a new job. But as a single male I can economize for myself and get by, while others with familes would be very difficult. So my comments of failure are real. But, if they do not I will continue to work until I find a better carear opportunity.
