# Pure skill vs luck



## Finlay (Jul 8, 2017)

Hello

This is another striking vs grappling question I'm afraid

Within the striking art everything from boxing to tkd you'll hear people talking about a "lucky punch" 

Generally this would be when someone hits someone else and has a much bigger effect than it is supposed to.

Often it is claimed when someone deemed to be of lower skill defeats a more skilled opponent. Maybe by throwing a blind punch or by lashing out when in a bad position.

Does grappling have an equal concept... I have never heard of "lucky headlock" 

Is the outcome of a grappling match always skill based? Other things being equal fatigue etc.


----------



## Touch Of Death (Jul 8, 2017)

Finlay said:


> Hello
> 
> This is another striking vs grappling question I'm afraid
> 
> ...


Size matters, and you are lucky to be bigger, or maybe if you are small, you are lucky to be faster.


----------



## Kung Fu Wang (Jul 8, 2017)

Finlay said:


> Does grappling have an equal concept... I have never heard of "lucky headlock"
> 
> Is the outcome of a grappling match always skill based? Other things being equal fatigue etc.


I have seen 2 wrestlers wrestled for 10 years weekly. The score was always 5 to 0. 

When a wrestler attacks, he may expose some weakness that you can take advantage on it. But if A plays 100% defense in wrestling, in order for B to take A down, B will need true skill.


----------



## jobo (Jul 8, 2017)

Finlay said:


> Hello
> 
> This is another striking vs grappling question I'm afraid
> 
> ...


your opponent can lose their footing or some such allowing the head lock to take place

it usually the loser that calls it a lucky punch,its really no such thing ,its aloss of concentration or over confidence that has allowed them to get hit.

every one in a,fight that has a decent punch has a " puncher's chance", no matter what the skill deficit may be


----------



## Steve (Jul 8, 2017)

The harder I train, the luckier I get. - Renzo Gracie


----------



## Finlay (Jul 8, 2017)

Ooooohhhh I like that


----------



## CB Jones (Jul 8, 2017)

First what is luck?

A)  Is it the stars aligning just right to momentarily increase a less skilled fighter's fighting prowess?

Or

B)  Is it simply a mistake made by a much more skilled opponent.  An anomaly that allowed for a less skilled opponent to catch the more skilled and grab an upset.


That the great thing about sports......even the best doesn't always win.

A is a fairy tale....B is reality


----------



## Tony Dismukes (Jul 8, 2017)

jobo said:


> your opponent can lose their footing or some such allowing the head lock to take place
> 
> it usually the loser that calls it a lucky punch,its really no such thing ,its aloss of concentration or over confidence that has allowed them to get hit.
> 
> every one in a,fight that has a decent punch has a " puncher's chance", no matter what the skill deficit may be





Steve said:


> The harder I train, the luckier I get. - Renzo Gracie





CB Jones said:


> First what is luck?
> 
> A)  Is it the stars aligning just right to momentarily increase a less skilled fighter's fighting prowess?
> 
> ...



I agree with all of the above, but in response to the original question I'd say there is a difference between how it plays out in striking vs grappling.

In striking, a fighter who has a knockout punch can potentially defeat a much superior opponent whose concentration lapses for a split second.

In grappling, it takes longer than a split second of lapsed concentration to end a fight, unless the fighters are already in an even position. If you are going against a much better grappler, you are unlikely to ever be in that even position. Even if you do get the opportunity to slap on a submission or start a throw, the superior grappler has some time to get their head back in the game and react and potentially counter the attack.


----------



## CB Jones (Jul 8, 2017)

On thinking about this I remembered something my high school football coach used to say (23 years ago):

_*Luck is the misidentification of preparation and execution by the ignorant observer or the excuse used by the loser.  *_*We win the game Friday night with the work we put in Monday-Wed.*


----------



## Bill Mattocks (Jul 8, 2017)

CB Jones said:


> On thinking about this I remembered something my high school football coach used to say (23 years ago):
> 
> _*Luck is the misidentification of preparation and execution by the ignorant observer or the excuse used by the loser.  *_*We win the game Friday night with the work we put in Monday-Wed.*



Fortune favors those who prepare.


----------



## Kung Fu Wang (Jul 8, 2017)

Finlay said:


> I have never heard of "lucky headlock" ...


MA has a lot of paradox.

You are not a good wrestler

1. if you can't get a head lock on your opponent.
2. if your opponent can get a head lock on you.


----------



## JR 137 (Jul 8, 2017)

Tony Dismukes said:


> I agree with all of the above, but in response to the original question I'd say there is a difference between how it plays out in striking vs grappling.
> 
> In striking, a fighter who has a knockout punch can potentially defeat a much superior opponent whose concentration lapses for a split second.
> 
> In grappling, it takes longer than a split second of lapsed concentration to end a fight, unless the fighters are already in an even position. If you are going against a much better grappler, you are unlikely to ever be in that even position. Even if you do get the opportunity to slap on a submission or start a throw, the superior grappler has some time to get their head back in the game and react and potentially counter the attack.



The only time I'd consider someone getting "lucky" against me during wrestling...

I made a mistake against an opponent who wasn't very good and ended up on my back.  That wasn't the lucky part.

The lucky part was the buzzer went off, so I stopped wrestling.  The referee called me pinned at least a full second after the buzzer went off.  The entire crowd booed, even the visiting fans.  My coach was a mellow guy when he needed to be, and calmly (although you could see his rage in his eyes) asked the referee "was he pinned right before the buzzer, you slapped the mat afterwards?" in an attempt to give the guy the benefit of the doubt.  The referee responded "I didn't hear any buzzer.  I have no idea what everyone's complaining about."  I'd call that one luck.  Lucky for him.

You'd think I'd get some sympathy from my coach.  Nope.  He said "There's a way to avoid getting a bulls$&t call against you like that - STAY OFF YOUR FU$&ING BACK!!!  THERE'S ABSOLUTELY NO EXCUSE FOR YOU TO HAVE BEEN ON YOUR BACK IN THE FIRST PLACE!!!"

Being the last guy on my team to lose, that cost us the dual meet.  The two heavier guys after me both pinned their opponents, but it wasn't enough.  It still stings, and I still remember it quite vividly 25 years later (it was about February 1992).  

The whole gym heard it, word for word. And he was absolutely right.  I had nothing at all to say, so I nodded my head and sat down.  I never stopped again until I heard any referee clearly tell me to.

The only instance of luck I can think of for or against me personally.  But again, I shouldn't have been on my back in the first place, so I let him get lucky.

Edit:  I wrestled the same guy again a few weeks later in a tournament.  I pinned him in 24 seconds.  No way I was giving him any chance at anything.  What did my eloquent coach say after that?  "That's what you should've done a couple weeks ago.  I'm glad you learned your lesson."  He pretty much only spoke the truth


----------



## Headhunter (Jul 8, 2017)

Fighting is all luck. I've always said it and always will. The most skilled don't always win. That's why people love underdog stories because they're people who aren't as skilled yet manage to win.


----------



## JR 137 (Jul 8, 2017)

Headhunter said:


> Fighting is all luck. I've always said it and always will. The most skilled don't always win. That's why people love underdog stories because they're people who aren't as skilled yet manage to win.


I don't think it's luck at all.  I think it's the less skilled guy recognizing a mistake and capitalizing on it.

I remember Tommy Morrison was dominating a guy who was a bum for a good 7 rounds or so.  Morrison made a mistake by dropping his left hand for a second, and the guy landed a clean and solid right hook right on his jaw, knocking him out.

After the fight Morrison said (paraphrasing a bit as I don't remember it verbatim) "I made a mistake and he made me pay for it.  If you give anyone over 200 lbs a clean shot at your head, they're going to knock you out.  I don't call that luck at all."  I think that was the first time he was KOed.  It became a lot more common after that one.

Edit:  Tommy Morrison only lost 3 fights, according to Wikipedia.  I though he was KOed more than that.


----------

