# What is your plan for re-opening?



## skribs (May 14, 2020)

If your government is going to re-open all at once, are you going to re-open as soon as you are able, or wait for some of the craziness to subside?

If your government is phasing the re-opening, are you going to open at the earliest phase you can and comply with restrictions, or are you going to wait until you can fully re-open?

I live in a phased area.  We're hoping to open the earliest we can.  However, we may have to have some restrictions we otherwise wouldn't:

Limit of class to 15 students (down from a maximum I've seen of almost 50)
No parents watching class (to create more room for next class to assemble and for social distancing)
No holding pads
No sparring
No self-defense drills with partner
It seems very limiting, but honestly a lot of these are the issues we've had to deal with doing classes online.  What are your plans to re-open your school?


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## Flying Crane (May 14, 2020)

My opinion: some states are hell-bent on opening too soon.   Very few states are showing an actual decline.  Many are actually increasing.  Go slow.  Go slower than your State.  Wait at least a month, maybe two, after your State says it’s ok.  See where and how bad the Covid cases spike in your area.  If there is no spike, well better to err on the safe side.  If there is a big (or even moderate) spike, then you dodged a bullet and didn’t contribute to that.  What seems like a small spike can grow quickly, is likely widespread by the time folks are aware of it at all.

Go slow. Go slow.  Go slow.


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## Monkey Turned Wolf (May 14, 2020)

I don't run a dojo, but if I did and I was able to afford it-I would wait about a month after the state reopens to see what happens. I'd also make sure that I'm transparent with everyone that I'm doing this, why, and continue the zoom classes. After that month is when I'd go into the phased one that you mentioned. Ultimately, safety is more important than martial arts.


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## Kung Fu Wang (May 14, 2020)

Monkey Turned Wolf said:


> safety is more important ...


Today I suppose to drive from Texas to California. Since I don't feel safe to stay in hotel for 2 nights, I decide to wait for 1 or 2 months. My wife can't take the Texas summer heat, but safety is more important.


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## ShortBridge (May 14, 2020)

I plan on waiting until I have enough context to feel very comfortable, then work out some return protocols with my students. We train very hands on with a lot of contact. It's hard to imagine doing so safely. 

No rush on may part. I'm in touch with my students and everyone is doing the training that they can in isolation.


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## Danny T (May 14, 2020)

Am open.
Was closed for 2 weeks. Have been doing one on one sessions, semi-privates up to 4 people and small groups no more that 10.
Everyone has their temperature taken with a infrared thermometer when them first come into the door. They must wash their hands and face immediately. We are doing form, individual drills and exercises, heavy bag work, pad work, and weapons work at range. No Wrestling, Throwing, Takedowns, or BJJ. 
All equipment is sprayed and wiped immediately upon a person finishing using it. Mats are disinfected at the end of every session. If you have a cough or temp Please Do Not Come In. You will be turned away. 

I have Kids, Teens, and Adults. 
Kids are the most difficult to keep them focused on maintaining distancing. So no more than 4 kids at a time doing any drills or exercises, the others sit, watch, and wait their turn.
It's working well for us.


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## Monkey Turned Wolf (May 14, 2020)

Danny T said:


> Am open.
> Was closed for 2 weeks. Have been doing one on one sessions, semi-privates up to 4 people and small groups no more that 10.
> Everyone has their temperature taken with a infrared thermometer when them first come into the door. They must wash their hands and face immediately. We are doing form, individual drills and exercises, heavy bag work, pad work, and weapons work at range. No Wrestling, Throwing, Takedowns, or BJJ.
> All equipment is sprayed and wiped immediately upon a person finishing using it. Mats are disinfected at the end of every session. If you have a cough or temp Please Do Not Come In. You will be turned away.
> ...


How are you determining who to allow in for class? Is it first come/first serve, or is there a schedule they log into, or something else?


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## Kung Fu Wang (May 14, 2020)

Danny T said:


> Everyone has their temperature taken ...


Do they have face mask on?

Yesterday, I was running. A girl appeared at the corner. I immediately put my face mask on. After i passed the corner, I could hear that girl said something and was not very happy about my reaction.

Another day, when I ran, I met an old lady, After I put my face mask on, the old lady asked me, "Are you OK?" I didn't say anything, but I was going to ask her, "I'm OK, but how do I know that you are OK?"

When people move closer toward me without face mask on, I immediately step back. I don't think people understand that when I put face mask on, I respect that person and also that person's family.

I always put face mask on in the public. When people don't put face mask on, it bothers me big time.


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## skribs (May 14, 2020)

Kung Fu Wang said:


> Do they have face mask on?
> 
> Yesterday, I was running. A girl appeared at the corner. I immediately put my face mask on. After i passed the corner, I could hear that girl said something and was not very happy about my reaction.
> 
> ...



I don't personally wear the mask, but I don't make fun of people that do.


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## Kung Fu Wang (May 14, 2020)

skribs said:


> I don't personally wear the mask, but I don't make fun of people that do.


I don't personally eat meat, but I don't make fun of people that do.

Whether people eat meat or not is not my business. But when people don't wear face mask around me, it can be my business, or even my family members business.

When I run, I keep dodging people who doesn't wear face mask. Sometime I just wonder whether my running exercise is worthwhile for the risk that I'm taking.

This is the issue. Until we understand that "one for all, and all for one", we are not ready to open our society yet.


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## Monkey Turned Wolf (May 14, 2020)

Kung Fu Wang said:


> Do they have face mask on?
> 
> Yesterday, I was running. A girl appeared at the corner. I immediately put my face mask on. After i passed the corner, I could hear that girl said something and was not very happy about my reaction.
> 
> ...


For reference, I live in one of the top 20 counties in terms of covid infections per 100k, so while it's a serious issue everywhere, it's a *serious* issue here. I go out for a walk/run every day I'm not working. If I was by myself, I wouldn't bother-but if we don't with everything going on my fiancee has no opportunity/reason to leave the apartment (and we get no sun in our apartment). I put my mask on and switch sides of the street every time I see someone. Very few people are wearing their own mask, which bothers me-me wearing my mask is for their protection not mine. Them not wearing theirs is potentially harming me, not them. But I've yet to have anyone that I've realized give me a look or respond badly to me putting on my mask and avoiding them. That's probably a result of the increased infections here (last I checked somewhere between 2.5 and 3 percent of people in my county have covid).


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## Flying Crane (May 14, 2020)

skribs said:


> I don't personally wear the mask, but I don't make fun of people that do.


You never wear a mask?  If you go to the grocery store, or otherwise interact with people outside of the people you live with?


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## Flying Crane (May 14, 2020)

Danny T said:


> Am open.
> Was closed for 2 weeks. Have been doing one on one sessions, semi-privates up to 4 people and small groups no more that 10.
> Everyone has their temperature taken with a infrared thermometer when them first come into the door. They must wash their hands and face immediately. We are doing form, individual drills and exercises, heavy bag work, pad work, and weapons work at range. No Wrestling, Throwing, Takedowns, or BJJ.
> All equipment is sprayed and wiped immediately upon a person finishing using it. Mats are disinfected at the end of every session. If you have a cough or temp Please Do Not Come In. You will be turned away.
> ...


Well if you turn away someone with a temperature, then you stopped someone who is obviously sick.  That is good.  But you still got close enough to take their temperature.  Which might turn out bad for you or for others who came to your school that day.

What do you do to determine those who are not yet showing symptoms?  Or those who might never show symptoms?  If those folks are infected, they are still highly contagious but nobody knows it.

How do you account for or mitigate that factor?


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## Kung Fu Wang (May 14, 2020)

skribs said:


> I don't personally wear the mask,


It's nice to be young!


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## Monkey Turned Wolf (May 14, 2020)

Monkey Turned Wolf said:


> For reference, I live in one of the top 20 counties in terms of covid infections per 100k, so while it's a serious issue everywhere, it's a *serious* issue here. I go out for a walk/run every day I'm not working. If I was by myself, I wouldn't bother-but if we don't with everything going on my fiancee has no opportunity/reason to leave the apartment (and we get no sun in our apartment). I put my mask on and switch sides of the street every time I see someone. Very few people are wearing their own mask, which bothers me-me wearing my mask is for their protection not mine. Them not wearing theirs is potentially harming me, not them. But I've yet to have anyone that I've realized give me a look or respond badly to me putting on my mask and avoiding them. That's probably a result of the increased infections here (last I checked somewhere between 2.5 and 3 percent of people in my county have covid).


As a side note, today is the second day that I saw a protest shortly outside my house about the masks. Not about reopening or the economy or anything, but seemed from the signs to be just about the mask. Most signs said "freedom over fear", "my body my choice", and one quoted the 1st amendment word for word (which confused me as they were being allowed to exercise that right by protesting). About a quarter of them were wearing masks (which also confused me), and they were all super close. Way more than 100 people, which means at least 2-3 of them probably had covid, and probably spread it.


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## Flying Crane (May 14, 2020)

Monkey Turned Wolf said:


> As a side note, today is the second day that I saw a protest shortly outside my house about the masks. Not about reopening or the economy or anything, but seemed from the signs to be just about the mask. Most signs said "freedom over fear", "my body my choice", and one quoted the 1st amendment word for word (which confused me as they were being allowed to exercise that right by protesting). About a quarter of them were wearing masks (which also confused me), and they were all super close. Way more than 100 people, which means at least 2-3 of them probably had covid, and probably spread it.


I gotta be honest, these protesters are deplorable.  Some of the worst people Ive seen in a long time, endangering everyone around them.  And doing it belligerently. Some of them bring their young children with them to these protests.  Those people who do that should be prosecuted for child endangerment.

Sure, they have the right to do stupid things to endanger themselves.  But they do not have the right to endanger others.  I’ve seen footage of the bar scene in Platteville, WI, which is a small town about ten miles from the small town where I grew up and lived until I went to college and then moved to California.  Since the State Supreme Court shot down the governor’s stay-at-home order, people are literally doing anything they please.  The infection rate in WI continues to rise, not fall.  People sitting in groups in bars, no attempts at distancing nor wearing masks.  Breaks my heart to see that, my childhood was in that area and my parents still live there.  Makes me never want to go there, seeing how stupid those people can be.


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## Monkey Turned Wolf (May 14, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> I gotta be honest, these protesters are deplorable.  Some of the worst people Ive seen in a long time, endangering everyone around them.  And doing it belligerently. Some of them bring their young children with them to these protests.  Those people who do that should be prosecuted for child endangerment.
> 
> Sure, they have the right to do stupid things to endanger themselves.  But they do not have the right to endanger others.  I’ve seen footage of the bar scene in Platteville, WI, which is a small town about ten miles from the small town where I grew up and lived until I went to college and then moved to California.  Since the State Supreme Court shot down the governor’s stay-at-home order, people are literally doing anything they please.  The infection rate in WI continues to rise, not fall.  People sitting in groups in bars, no attempts at distancing nor wearing masks.  Breaks my heart to see that, my childhood was in that area and my parents still live there.  Makes me never want to go there, seeing how stupid those people can be.


For the first time in this whole thing I'm happy being in NY, knowing it's going down here, and we're still having restrictions.


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## jobo (May 14, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> You never wear a mask?  If you go to the grocery store, or otherwise interact with people outside of the people you live with?


i never wear one EVER and i do make fun of people who do

excuse me are you the lone ranger,doesn't work well with any one under 50. if they are so worried about personal contact they wear a mask, it seems unlikely they will come close enough to hit you, so you can say what you like

i have noticed that some ethnic backgrounds are a lot keen on mask than others, people of east Asian backgrounds seem obsessed with them

i have seen a few folk with a bandanna round their mouth but it was unclear if it was for virus protection or they were about to commit a robbery


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## Flying Crane (May 14, 2020)

Monkey Turned Wolf said:


> For the first time in this whole thing I'm happy being in NY, knowing it's going down here, and we're still having restrictions.


I have been so deeply impressed with Governor Cuomo.  I watch his updates almost every day.  That man is Presidential Material.


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## Monkey Turned Wolf (May 14, 2020)

jobo said:


> i never wear one EVER and i do make fun of people who do


That tracks.


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## Kung Fu Wang (May 14, 2020)

jobo said:


> i never wear one EVER


Why do you want to take more risk when there is no cure for corona-virus at this moment?

To prevent a problem from happening is better than to let it happen and then try to fix it afterward.


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## skribs (May 14, 2020)

Kung Fu Wang said:


> I don't personally eat meat, but I don't make fun of people that do.
> 
> Whether people eat meat or not is not my business. But when people don't wear face mask around me, it can be my business, or even my family members business.
> 
> ...



Social distancing.  People are 6 feet from everyone else anyways, and everyone I interact with is through a barrier.



Flying Crane said:


> You never wear a mask?  If you go to the grocery store, or otherwise interact with people outside of the people you live with?



Same answer as above.



Flying Crane said:


> Well if you turn away someone with a temperature, then you stopped someone who is obviously sick.  That is good.  But you still got close enough to take their temperature.  Which might turn out bad for you or for others who came to your school that day.
> 
> What do you do to determine those who are not yet showing symptoms?  Or those who might never show symptoms?  If those folks are infected, they are still highly contagious but nobody knows it.
> 
> How do you account for or mitigate that factor?



They have guns that you can use to check temperature from a distance.


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## skribs (May 14, 2020)

Monkey Turned Wolf said:


> For the first time in this whole thing I'm happy being in NY, knowing it's going down here, and we're still having restrictions.



Everyone I've talked to has said NY has it the worst.  I'm not sure what to believe anymore.



Flying Crane said:


> I have been so deeply impressed with Governor Cuomo. I watch his updates almost every day. That man is Presidential Material.



Can we please keep politics out of this discussion?


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## Monkey Turned Wolf (May 14, 2020)

skribs said:


> Everyone I've talked to has said NY has it the worst.  I'm not sure what to believe anymore.
> 
> 
> 
> Can we please keep politics out of this discussion?


Ny does. But because of the restrictions, and then also because we had it bad earlier, we're on a downward trend while other states (including some that are reopening) are not


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## Flying Crane (May 14, 2020)

skribs said:


> Social distancing.  People are 6 feet from everyone else anyways, and everyone I interact with is through a barrier.
> 
> Same answer as above.
> 
> They have guns that you can use to check temperature from a distance.


What kind of barrier?  Everyone you interact with?  Including those you pass on the sidewalk or in the grocery store aisle?

You can wear a barrier...


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## skribs (May 14, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> What kind of barrier?  Everyone you interact with?  Including those you pass on the sidewalk or in the grocery store aisle?
> 
> You can wear a barrier...



We stand 6 feet apart. They limit the number of people in the store so we're never close enough.  There is a glass or plastic barrier between myself and any workers.  Those are the only people I interact with.


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## Flying Crane (May 14, 2020)

Monkey Turned Wolf said:


> Ny does. But because of the restrictions, and then also because we had it bad earlier, we're on a downward trend while other states (including some that are reopening) are not


If you remove NY and NJ from the equation, the rest of the nation on average is still going up.  Some places more pronounced than others.  NY and NJ may be the only places currently trending downward.


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## Flying Crane (May 14, 2020)

skribs said:


> Can we please keep politics out of this discussion?


I’m not talking politics.  Cuomo has real leadership qualities.  He would be an excellent president.  But he isn’t running for president and has said that he has no interest.  So it is moot.  

But I am so impressed by him that I still think he would be an excellent president.


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## Flying Crane (May 14, 2020)

skribs said:


> We stand 6 feet apart. They limit the number of people in the store so we're never close enough.  There is a glass or plastic barrier between myself and any workers.  Those are the only people I interact with.


But you walk by other shoppers.  Everyone breathes and talks, some people cough, all of which launches droplets into the air.  Do you believe that six feet is a magic number, beyond which you cannot contract the virus?  Six feet and wear a mask.

Wearing a mask is more about protecting others.  You could be infected and not know it, so you protect others from you.  The mask disrupts your own droplets from being spread.

Wearing a mask protects you too:  you could touch something with virus on it.  The mask makes it more difficult to absent-mindedly touch your mouth or nose afterward.

Scribs, do the right thing and wear a mask when you interact with or pass near other people.  Don’t be a vector.


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## jobo (May 14, 2020)

Kung Fu Wang said:


> Why do you want to take more risk when there is no cure for corona-virus at this moment?
> 
> To prevent a problem from happening is better than to let it happen and then try to fix it afterward.


there winding it down here, things are quickly returning to normal, people wernt generally taking a lot of notice about distancing last week, its a lot less this week, it wont be happening at all next week. theres large groups assembling all over the place, even the supermarkets have given up on the idea of controlling how many shopper they allow in at once


ive paid no regard to it at all, but here i am just as healthy as i was before they started this nonsense


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## jobo (May 14, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> But you walk by other shoppers.  Everyone breathes and talks, some people cough, all of which launches droplets into the air.  Do you believe that six feet is a magic number, beyond which you cannot contract the virus?  Six feet and wear a mask.
> 
> Wearing a mask is more about protecting others.  You could be infected and not know it, so you protect others from you.  The mask disrupts your own droplets from being spread.
> 
> ...



one of the councils have  carved 2 meter strips in to all the park land so that people who cant count to two know what distance they should be from each other

: Council ridiculed over 'bonkers' 2m social distance strips in grass


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## skribs (May 14, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> I’m not talking politics.  Cuomo has real leadership qualities.  He would be an excellent president.  But he isn’t running for president and has said that he has no interest.  So it is moot.
> 
> But I am so impressed by him that I still think he would be an excellent president.



Talking about who should be President is the most political thing I can think of.  I cannot think of a single way in which that is not a political discussion.



Flying Crane said:


> But you walk by other shoppers. Everyone breathes and talks, some people cough, all of which launches droplets into the air. Do you believe that six feet is a magic number, beyond which you cannot contract the virus? Six feet and wear a mask.
> 
> Wearing a mask is more about protecting others. You could be infected and not know it, so you protect others from you. The mask disrupts your own droplets from being spread.
> 
> ...



I can understand people misspelling my name when I say it to them...but it's right there in front of you to copy.

Walking around with a mask hasn't been required yet.  If it is, either by the government, or by the establishment I am visiting, then I will wear one.  As it is, I'm free to make my own decisions.  And the decision I've made is that I'm not.


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## Monkey Turned Wolf (May 14, 2020)

This is a topic that's so easy to turn political, let's please avoid that so it doesn't get shut down like the other covid threads ended up.


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## Monkey Turned Wolf (May 14, 2020)

skribs said:


> Talking about who should be President is the most political thing I can think of.  I cannot think of a single way in which that is not a political discussion.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I don't think him nor me is telling you that you have to wear a mask. But you should, for the safety of those around you. Social distancing is not a 100% thing, and you may be spreading it without realizing.


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## Kung Fu Wang (May 14, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> You can wear a barrier...


This is the best design. I can see this will be how our normal life will look like. We should learn and get used to it.


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## Kung Fu Wang (May 14, 2020)

Monkey Turned Wolf said:


> This is a topic that's so easy to turn political, let's please avoid that so it doesn't get shut down like the other covid threads ended up.


But anybody who thinks more for the people and think less for himself is a good presidential candidate. This is just common sense that has nothing to do with politics.

It's like when someone says, "MA style X is good because it has a clear path defined for the students to reach to their goal." When he says that, he is not style bashing, and he is not criticizing other MA systems.


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## Flying Crane (May 14, 2020)

skribs said:


> Talking about who should be President is the most political thing I can think of.  I cannot think of a single way in which that is not a political discussion.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Where do you get your news?  Do you listen to what the scientists and doctors are saying?


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## Danny T (May 14, 2020)

Monkey Turned Wolf said:


> How are you determining who to allow in for class? Is it first come/first serve, or is there a schedule they log into, or something else?


They have to schedule with us for the session.


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## Danny T (May 14, 2020)

Kung Fu Wang said:


> Do they have face mask on?
> 
> Yesterday, I was running. A girl appeared at the corner. I immediately put my face mask on. After i passed the corner, I could hear that girl said something and was not very happy about my reaction.
> 
> ...


You wearing a mask doesn't protect you from them, it protects them from you. If you are putting the mask on wearing it for a time, taking it off, and then putting it back on without sanitizing it and your hands then you aren't protecting yourself or anyone else but increasing the potential to spreading the virus 'if' you are carrying it on your mask. Also the mask is a 'recommendation' by the CDC for when a person is Covid positive and in a position to not be able to keep social distancing.


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## Danny T (May 14, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> Well if you turn away someone with a temperature, then you stopped someone who is obviously sick.  That is good.  But you still got close enough to take their temperature.  Which might turn out bad for you or for others who came to your school that day.
> 
> What do you do to determine those who are not yet showing symptoms?  Or those who might never show symptoms?  If those folks are infected, they are still highly contagious but nobody knows it.
> 
> How do you account for or mitigate that factor?


Same way I mitigate for influenza, staph, and other viruses.


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## Monkey Turned Wolf (May 14, 2020)

https://www.sciencenews.org/article...-why-6-feet-may-not-be-enough-social-distance

This article suggest that being within 23 feet of a person you can still get droplets on them.

Is 6 feet far enough for social distancing? Here's what science says

This article slightly contradicts that one-acknowledges the MIT study, but then states that the study does not prove they're still infectious. However, it also states that the 6 feet is not a magic number, where you can still get infected farther away, and refers a couple time to 'a minimum of 6 feet' or '6-10 feet'. Either way, 6 feet isn't going to make it so you can't spread the virus if you have it but or asymptomatic (and keep in mind that the beginning periods of the virus-where most people are symptomatic, is when it most easily spreads). Of note, it also mentions another thing not brought up here-face masks alone are not enough to stop the spread-you still need to social distance on top of it. 

The point is-you should do both, since neither is fully effective on their own. You don't have to, as skribs pointed it out, no one is going to force you. But if you don't do so with the knowledge that you may unknowingly spread the disease, which may end up either killing someone, or having it spread to other people and killing one or more people that way. But if you're fine with people dying because you weren't as careful as you could be, then go for it. And yes, we all take that risk for every virus/flu around, but moreso when it is impacting up large percentages of the population (One county is already at 14%, while others are above 5%), and will only impact larger percentages as time goes on.


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## Monkey Turned Wolf (May 15, 2020)

Monkey Turned Wolf said:


> https://www.sciencenews.org/article...-why-6-feet-may-not-be-enough-social-distance
> 
> This article suggest that being within 23 feet of a person you can still get droplets on them.
> 
> ...


Just want to add, I got the percentages from this site. Coronavirus (COVID-19) case rates by county U.S. 2020 | Statista But I can't tell their source without registering and possibly paying for the site, so I just doublechecked on a different site. This site is what the CDC is recommending following, and they listed 12.2% for that county. But they also specified that they are talking only about confirmed cases. So there are likely more cases where people have not been tested. I also know that in parts of NY and NJ people are being told not to bother getting tested unless they feel they need to go to a hospital/be admitted, and to self-isolate, so the numbers there, which are around 2-3% for the counties I'm referring to, are likely low as well.


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## Headhunter (May 15, 2020)

To be honest martial arts is the last thing I care about right now. Yeah not training sucks but I'm still doing my own stuff every day so not like I'm not doing any. Martial arts are not essential and tbh they should be the last things to reopen simply because it's probably the sport that has the most physical contact and simply it's not worth the risk


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## dvcochran (May 15, 2020)

Monkey Turned Wolf said:


> Just want to add, I got the percentages from this site. Coronavirus (COVID-19) case rates by county U.S. 2020 | Statista But I can't tell their source without registering and possibly paying for the site, so I just doublechecked on a different site. This site is what the CDC is recommending following, and they listed 12.2% for that county. But they also specified that they are talking only about confirmed cases. So there are likely more cases where people have not been tested. I also know that in parts of NY and NJ people are being told not to bother getting tested unless they feel they need to go to a hospital/be admitted, and to self-isolate, so the numbers there, which are around 2-3% for the counties I'm referring to, are likely low as well.


I live in TN so some of the stats from the Statista site caught my attention. I can confirm that they are Way off, at least for TN. For example Bledsoe County has had 604 confirmed cases with 552 recoveries and zero deaths. 
It is not even clear how to interpret the graph. It says per 100,00 but the math just does not work. I have great doubt in it's accuracy.


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## skribs (May 15, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> Do you listen to what the scientists and doctors are saying?



Different ones have different opinions.  One of my fellow students is an ER Doctor, and he's saying we should be opening things back up.  Or should I listen to the doctors that say things you agree with, instead of the doctors I know and trust?



Headhunter said:


> To be honest martial arts is the last thing I care about right now. Yeah not training sucks but I'm still doing my own stuff every day so not like I'm not doing any. Martial arts are not essential and tbh they should be the last things to reopen simply because it's probably the sport that has the most physical contact and simply it's not worth the risk



I could do my own stuff, or I could take a break.  However, most of my students are kids.  Kids that are stuck inside with their families all day, every day.  Kids that need exercise and entertainment.  Kids that need socialization.  The Zoom classes are okay, but the kids really need to be kids.


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## Flying Crane (May 15, 2020)

Danny T said:


> Same way I mitigate for influenza, staph, and other viruses.


I’m gonna be honest then and say that I think meeting with students right now is a dangerous decision.  In this environment it isn’t worth it.  By bringing people together you are creating an environment where the virus can spread within that group.  Those people then go home, you go home, if someone had the virus it could be going home with any or all of you, infecting your families and beyond.  

Martial arts is not an essential activity.  It can wait.

I don’t know where you live nor what your regional infection rate is.  Maybe it’s low.  But that can change quickly and without warning and when it does, it won’t be known until it is already widespread.  That is what shutting down and staying home is meant to prevent, so we all collectively can get through this and come out on the other side together.

I’m gonna recommend you stop doing it.


----------



## Flying Crane (May 15, 2020)

skribs said:


> Different ones have different opinions.  One of my fellow students is an ER Doctor, and he's saying we should be opening things back up.  Or should I listen to the doctors that say things you agree with, instead of the doctors I know and trust?


My brother is a doctor.  Full disclosure: he isn’t a front-line doctor dealing with high numbers of Covid infections.  But he is a practicing doctor and is being affected by the Covid situation.  He was talking about maybe we need to accept a certain mortality rate among the population so that we can get the economy open.  I’m not sure if this was actually his opinion or if he was just speculating on what some folks are talking about.  It was part of a longer discussion my family was having.

Ok, so if we want to talk about acceptable mortality rates then we need to talk specifically about who each of us are willing to lose to Covid.  Because if we decide to just open up and allow “herd immunity” to happen then eventually this virus will take someone from each and every one of us.  So are we ourselves willing to be a casualty?  Are you (not you specifically but “you” everyone in the readership) willing to lose a spouse or partner?  A child? A parent? A brother or sister or nephew or niece?  Or a best friend or one of your martial arts students or teachers?  Several of these?  Who are we each willing to put on that chopping block, so that other people can make money?  What are their names?  Because if we go there, this won’t just be an abstraction of hypothetical “acceptable mortality”.  This is gonna get personal for each and every one of us.

I listen to Dr. Fauci.

I also listen to the doctors who have served in the heavily-hit areas like NY City, who are exhausted and stretched to the breaking point trying to care for dying people in the hot zones.  These doctors and nurses and other staff keep asking people to stay home so they don’t exacerbate the situation and flood the hospitals with more patients.  Keep the infections as contained as possible, don’t act recklessly and allow it to spread further.  Not every place is under these extreme conditions, but every place could become like NY City if we collectively do not act responsibly to contain the virus.  So I listen to the doctors who have been doing the heavy lifting.


----------



## Kung Fu Wang (May 15, 2020)

*Oklahoma nail salon worker contracted the coronavirus shortly after the business reopened*

*Barber Who Defied Lockdown In New York Tests Positive For Coronavirus*

*"I had a mask on, I had gloves on, I did my normal wipes routine ... but obviously, you can still get it through your eyes," Fair said on the "TODAY" show from his hospital bed. "And, of course, I wasn't wearing goggles on the flight.*


----------



## Flying Crane (May 15, 2020)

Monkey Turned Wolf said:


> https://www.sciencenews.org/article...-why-6-feet-may-not-be-enough-social-distance
> 
> This article suggest that being within 23 feet of a person you can still get droplets on them.
> 
> ...


Everyone should read the articles linked here.


----------



## Headhunter (May 15, 2020)

skribs said:


> Different ones have different opinions.  One of my fellow students is an ER Doctor, and he's saying we should be opening things back up.  Or should I listen to the doctors that say things you agree with, instead of the doctors I know and trust?
> 
> 
> 
> I could do my own stuff, or I could take a break.  However, most of my students are kids.  Kids that are stuck inside with their families all day, every day.  Kids that need exercise and entertainment.  Kids that need socialization.  The Zoom classes are okay, but the kids really need to be kids.


There's a reason schools are closed....because it's not safe. Kids can end up passing it on to their parents and don't say about social distancing because that's simply impossible with kids they don't get it and if they're doing something like martial arts they'll end up over excited and forgetting to keep their distance. Just not worth it


----------



## Kung Fu Wang (May 15, 2020)

*If we didn’t do any testing, we would have very few cases.

The secret to beating cancer is just never to get screened for it. *

“Don’t forget, we have more cases than anybody in the world. But why? We do more testing,” Trump said following a tour of a medical supply distributor in Allentown, Pennsylvania. “When you test, you have a case. When you test, you find something is wrong with people. If we didn’t do any testing, we would have very few cases.”

The logic just doesn't make sense to me. Statement like this bother me big time.


----------



## Monkey Turned Wolf (May 15, 2020)

dvcochran said:


> I live in TN so some of the stats from the Statista site caught my attention. I can confirm that they are Way off, at least for TN. For example Bledsoe County has had 604 confirmed cases with 552 recoveries and zero deaths.
> It is not even clear how to interpret the graph. It says per 100,00 but the math just does not work. I have great doubt in it's accuracy.


Thanks. It sounded off, and like i said couldnt figure out their source which is why i added the cdc-approved stats. I would go by that over statista.


----------



## jobo (May 15, 2020)

Kung Fu Wang said:


> *If we didn’t do any testing, we would have very few cases.
> 
> The secret to beating cancer is just never to get screened for it. *
> 
> ...


its a perfectly logical statement, its Schrodinger's cat , if you dont know how many have got the virus, then you have far less confirmed cases.

as a rule of thumb the infected levels an a 100 multiple of the deaths, so thats circa 3.5 hundred thousand for the UK. if youve only tested a few tens of thousands of people as we have the confirmed rate is no higher than 3000, if you test a million then the confirmed rate with be a 50  times higher

whats not at all clear is if the death rate is accurate, in either direction, so it could easily be 7 00,000  infected or 130,000


----------



## Headhunter (May 15, 2020)

Kung Fu Wang said:


> *If we didn’t do any testing, we would have very few cases.
> 
> The secret to beating cancer is just never to get screened for it. *
> 
> ...


It does make sense. If you don't test as many that means you get less positive results which in turn makes  it look better on paper. If one country doesn't test a single person then they can go around saying "oh look out country has 0 cases" which of course is bs but statistic wise it's the truth


----------



## Danny T (May 15, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> I’m gonna be honest then and say that I think meeting with students right now is a dangerous decision.  In this environment it isn’t worth it.  By bringing people together you are creating an environment where the virus can spread within that group.  Those people then go home, you go home, if someone had the virus it could be going home with any or all of you, infecting your families and beyond.
> 
> Martial arts is not an essential activity.  It can wait.
> 
> ...


I'll take that under advisement along with other social, economic, mental health, and physical factors in my decision making.



Flying Crane said:


> I listen to Dr. Fauci.


I've listen to him as well, even followed his recommendations. Then he changed some of them. Which recommendation are you listening to?


----------



## Flying Crane (May 15, 2020)

Danny T said:


> I'll take that under advisement along with other social, economic, mental health, and physical factors in my decision making.



Well, I would hate for you to find out that your students became ill and perhaps someone eve died, and it was traced to people coming together in your school.  I would also hate for you or your family member to become the casualty of that



> I've listen to him as well, even followed his recommendations. Then he changed some of them. Which recommendation are you listening to?



I’ve found him to be quite consistent, although nuancing his position as the virus becomes better understood.

How do you feel he has changed?


----------



## skribs (May 15, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> Well, I would hate for you to find out that your students became ill and perhaps someone eve died, and it was traced to people coming together in your school. I would also hate for you or your family member to become the casualty of that



Same goes for any other communicable disease.

Then there's the issues with isolation: increased depression and suicide, likelihood of increased childhood obesity, increased domestic violence.  DV calls are up something like 88% in my town, for example.

And the fact that hospitals are being pressured to use COVID-19 as the cause of death, because they get more money that way.


----------



## Headhunter (May 15, 2020)

skribs said:


> Same goes for any other communicable disease.
> 
> Then there's the issues with isolation: increased depression and suicide, likelihood of increased childhood obesity, increased domestic violence.  DV calls are up something like 88% in my town, for example.
> 
> And the fact that hospitals are being pressured to use COVID-19 as the cause of death, because they get more money that way.


Has any other disease in recent history caused all schools and shops to close down? Do you think they did that for fun?.....it's attitudes like this that caused it to spread so much in the first place. If everyone had just stopped and stayed in for a while it'd have gone by now


----------



## Flying Crane (May 15, 2020)

skribs said:


> Same goes for any other communicable disease.
> 
> Then there's the issues with isolation: increased depression and suicide, likelihood of increased childhood obesity, increased domestic violence.  DV calls are up something like 88% in my town, for example.



I won’t deny that these are likely part of the big picture.  So who are you willing to lose for the sake of reopening quickly?  No reasonable person says we can’t ever reopen.  But it needs to be done gradually and carefully.  That’s what I’m not seeing happening.


> And the fact that hospitals are being pressured to use COVID-19 as the cause of death, because they get more money that way.


Where did you hear this?  I’ve not heard this claim.


----------



## Monkey Turned Wolf (May 15, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> Where did you hear this?  I’ve not heard this claim.


That claim has been making it's rounds a lot, with no evidence that I've found. And no one in my ER has been adding that diagnosis to people for money-the docs don't really care all that much about the hospital's bottom line.

The root of the claim from what I can tell seems to be that COVID is a billable diagnosis for insurances, which theoretically would incentivize hospitals to diagnose for it so they can bill for it. But that's true for most illnesses. Hospitals also can bill for things like heart attacks, but not everyone who comes in with chest pain or limb numbness is being diagnosed with a heart attack. 

It's been a bit since I looked into it, so as always feel free to explore it yourself.


----------



## Dirty Dog (May 15, 2020)

skribs said:


> And the fact that hospitals are being pressured to use COVID-19 as the cause of death, because they get more money that way.



This statement is complete horse ****.


----------



## ShortBridge (May 15, 2020)

skribs said:


> ...
> 
> And the fact that hospitals are being pressured to use COVID-19 as the cause of death, because they get more money that way.



Care to cite your source for that?


----------



## Headhunter (May 15, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> I won’t deny that these are likely part of the big picture.  So who are you willing to lose for the sake of reopening quickly?  No reasonable person says we can’t ever reopen.  But it needs to be done gradually and carefully.  That’s what I’m not seeing happening.
> 
> Where did you hear this?  I’ve not heard this claim.


Where I am what's happening is some places are now doing outdoor classes with no more than 5 people and everyone has to wear masks and keep socially distant so no contact. I personally will not be doing it but it's a gradual step to it. But kids classes is not a good idea at all. Adults mostly can have common sense and the ones that don't will at least be told and listen to the instructor but yeah martial arts is frankly the least important thing at the moment. I can't wait to get back but I'll happily take off as long as need be so I don't die or risk killing any of my family


----------



## Monkey Turned Wolf (May 15, 2020)

ShortBridge said:


> Care to cite your source for that?


So found the source. PolitiFact - Fact-check: Hospitals and COVID-19 payments

The tl;dr version: Hospitals do get paid more for COVID patients, which was done to undercut money lost by the hospitals where COVID rates are higher. They are not being pressured or told to diagnose people as COVID, are specifying if someone is suspected or confirmed (and not from this source but in general the increase in rates is only for confirmed, so without a test it's a moot point), and it is more likely being undercounted then that there is false-covid reports going out there for money. 

Which btw I'm pretty sure (would have to find a source if anyone wanted) that either the doctor or the hospital would lose their license if they were found to be doing that-and it's a pretty easy thing to find out if there's a concern. So I don't think the 20% rate increase would be worth the risk that you're taking with each patient, even if healthcare workers were known to be primarily unethical.


----------



## Flying Crane (May 15, 2020)

Dirty Dog said:


> This statement is complete horse ****.


That was my gut assumption.  If there is a source for the claim I wanted to see it and what the actual wording of the claim is.  But yeah, I definitely needed some convincing.


----------



## Flying Crane (May 15, 2020)

Monkey Turned Wolf said:


> So found the source. PolitiFact - Fact-check: Hospitals and COVID-19 payments
> 
> The tl;dr version: Hospitals do get paid more for COVID patients, which was done to undercut money lost by the hospitals where COVID rates are higher. They are not being pressured or told to diagnose people as COVID, are specifying if someone is suspected or confirmed (and not from this source but in general the increase in rates is only for confirmed, so without a test it's a moot point), and it is more likely being undercounted then that there is false-covid reports going out there for money.
> 
> Which btw I'm pretty sure (would have to find a source if anyone wanted) that either the doctor or the hospital would lose their license if they were found to be doing that-and it's a pretty easy thing to find out if there's a concern. So I don't think the 20% rate increase would be worth the risk that you're taking with each patient, even if healthcare workers were known to be primarily unethical.


Thank you for posting that link.  It is about what I suspected.


----------



## skribs (May 15, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> Where did you hear this? I’ve not heard this claim.



From several doctors and nurses that I know.  From my own job in the medical field.

Physicians Say Hospitals Are Pressuring ER Docs to List COVID-19 on Death Certificates. Here’s Why | Jon Miltimore

Hospital Payments and the COVID-19 Death Count - says that there isn't pressure per se, but to assume that if the symptoms line up and they tested negative, it was a false negative

COVID-19 death certificate change stirs controversy - similar as the above.  People without confirmation of COVID-19, but with similar symptoms are being listed as COVID-19 related deaths on their certificate

Something I learned over a decade ago - fact checkers are great for checking on things like hoaxes and scams.  They're horrible for politics.  The fact-checkers are quite often blinded by their partisanship, and think that the opinions they express are fact.  This happens on both sides of any political issue.


----------



## Flying Crane (May 15, 2020)

skribs said:


> From several doctors and nurses that I know.  From my own job in the medical field.
> 
> Physicians Say Hospitals Are Pressuring ER Docs to List COVID-19 on Death Certificates. Here’s Why | Jon Miltimore
> 
> ...


Well, your first link is to a conservative think tank with ties to Koch Industries.  You mention in your last paragraph how you feel people are blinded by their politics.  Looks to me like you fit that description.

I don’t find anything objectionable or suggestive of some kind of systematic fraudulent push to over-identify Covid cases for the sake of profit in your second and third links.  Part of it is just the inadequacy of the testing that has been done from the very beginning, and learning more about the virus in the meantime.  So recognizing that prior deaths may have been Covid-related but were never identified due to lack of adequate testing ability seems very reasonable to me.

I would not presume that there are absolutely zero instances of what you describe.  Unscrupulous individuals can be found in every industry and profession.  But that is a far cry from any claims of this being systematic and widespread.  It really looks like a conspiracy theory based on a very very small nugget of truth or on very few cases, and built into something much bigger than it actually is.


----------



## Headhunter (May 15, 2020)

skribs said:


> From several doctors and nurses that I know.  From my own job in the medical field.
> 
> Physicians Say Hospitals Are Pressuring ER Docs to List COVID-19 on Death Certificates. Here’s Why | Jon Miltimore
> 
> ...


I really don't know what any of this has to do with martial art clubs reopening. Whether this is true or not there is still a dangerous virus out there that puts people's lives at risk that's a fact and you can justify it any which way you want but starting up classes again especially for kids is wrong. Adults is easier to control so maybe for them if the right adjustments are in place but for kids it's simply impossible you can't keep kids seperate because it's in their nature to run around and be clingy and hugging off each other and they don't truly understand what's happening (it seems some adults don't either ) I get instructors are losing money and that sucks but to me people's lives come before their wallets. I'm not an instructor but if I was I wouldn't be able to live with myself if my choices ended up getting people killed or seriously sick


----------



## Flying Crane (May 15, 2020)

Headhunter said:


> I really don't know what any of this has to do with martial art clubs reopening. Whether this is true or not there is still a dangerous virus out there that puts people's lives at risk that's a fact and you can justify it any which way you want but starting up classes again especially for kids is wrong. Adults is easier to control so maybe for them if the right adjustments are in place but for kids it's simply impossible you can't keep kids seperate because it's in their nature to run around and be clingy and hugging off each other and they don't truly understand what's happening (it seems some adults don't either ) I get instructors are losing money and that sucks but to me people's lives come before their wallets. I'm not an instructor but if I was I wouldn't be able to live with myself if my choices ended up getting people killed or seriously sick


Yes, we are getting distracted by side issues.

Most regions, at least on a State level, are still showing growing infection rates.  Some areas are flattening.  But even in the flat areas, it just means that the number of new cases each day are essentially the same.  But those are still new cases every day.  It isn’t decreasing.  It hasn’t gone away.  It isn’t under control.  It is just being contained by one imperfect definition of what containment means.  But it is still a very real problem that has the potential to grow again very quickly.

Exactly what is one’s region is somewhat open to interpretation. I could claim that my region is my home, and we are Covid-free. But that’s a nonsense claim because obviously we need to go out of the home for some things.  So is it the City or the County or a cluster of cities or counties in an area?  Or is it the State, or a cluster of States?  Because we are a highly mobile society so a virus can easily be transferred into a region where it has not yet shown a high level of infection.  A low-infection region can become a new hotspot outbreak overnight.  Literally.

That is why this is such a problem.  People trying to open too quickly and without proper caution are opening the door to spread the virus further and bring on a second wave that could be worse than what we have already experienced.  This really isn’t difficult to understand.

No need to push for a quick opening for anyone’s school.


----------



## skribs (May 15, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> Well, your first link is to a conservative think tank with ties to Koch Industries. You mention in your last paragraph how you feel people are blinded by their politics. Looks to me like you fit that description.



So if it matches your point of view it's not blinded, but if it disagrees with you it is?  



> I really don't know what any of this has to do with martial art clubs reopening.



Honestly...everything.  Because if it wasn't for this virus, we wouldn't even be having this discussion.


----------



## Flying Crane (May 15, 2020)

skribs said:


> So if it matches your point of view it's not blinded, but if it disagrees with you it is?



Did I point to any political sources for my information?  If I did, please remind me where because I have forgotten.  I actually said that I find Dr. Fauci to be trustworthy.  He is part of the current administrations team working on this.


----------



## geezer (May 15, 2020)

Headhunter said:


> ...I get instructors are *losing money* and that sucks...



^^^The leadership of the association I belong to has absolutely _solved _this problem!

First, the heck with this "virus". They've simply started back up. At the HQ gym they _take the temperature_ of  students entering the gym, inform them _not to practice if they feel sick,_ and tell them _they can chose to wear masks_ if they want to.

Since many of the drills are done in touching, in close contact at clinch-range, they also provide _free use of hand sanitizer._ They make it clear that it is entirely up to the student to take care of him/herself. Besides, _I was told privately_, this is "Covid" really _just like the flu._ Apparently it's "the fake, liberal media that has hyped this" -- supposedly for political reasons.

And, to solve the problem of the _loss of income_, they just doubled the annual Association dues (depending on gym size) from mere $75 to $150 per month. But, since I teach just a few students semi-privately at a park, my dues will only go up to $125 per month. When I asked how I was supposed to pay that, I was told to either increase my fees to a minimum of $50 per hour per private student (or about $400 per month) or to increase my group class size from 2 to at least 10 at $120 per month per student.

They forgot about the third option. I stop teaching for their "Association".


----------



## Monkey Turned Wolf (May 15, 2020)

geezer said:


> ^^^The leadership of the association I belong to has absolutely _solved _this problem!
> 
> First, the heck with this "virus". They've simply started back up. At the HQ gym they _take the temperature_ of  students entering the gym, inform them _not to practice if they feel sick,_ and tell them _they can chose to wear masks_ if they want to.
> 
> ...


I was reading through this, and thinking that you have that third option right up until that last sentence. Especially at the double association dues portion.


----------



## Headhunter (May 15, 2020)

skribs said:


> So if it matches your point of view it's not blinded, but if it disagrees with you it is?
> 
> 
> 
> Honestly...everything.  Because if it wasn't for this virus, we wouldn't even be having this discussion.


No.....I mean your little conspiracy theory about hospital saying all deaths are from the virus. At the end of the day again you can justify it however you wish to but teaching kids right now is a very bad idea....there's a reason schools are closed


----------



## Flying Crane (May 15, 2020)

geezer said:


> ^^^The leadership of the association I belong to has absolutely _solved _this problem!
> 
> First, the heck with this "virus". They've simply started back up. At the HQ gym they _take the temperature_ of  students entering the gym, inform them _not to practice if they feel sick,_ and tell them _they can chose to wear masks_ if they want to.
> 
> ...


I was gonna ask why you belong to an association run by such a ship of fools and nincompoops?  My dog, but I would disassociate on the spot, if some idiot tried to sell me on that load of backwash.  Honestly, they are part of the problem.

Did they convince you that the 86,000 deaths in the US and over 300,000 worldwide are fake, never happened?  I guess we ought to open all the graves and pull everyone out again.

See if you can get a write-up on this in one of the big newspapers.  They deserve some serious bad publicity for this.


----------



## Headhunter (May 15, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> Yes, we are getting distracted by side issues.
> 
> Most regions, at least on a State level, are still showing growing infection rates.  Some areas are flattening.  But even in the flat areas, it just means that the number of new cases each day are essentially the same.  But those are still new cases every day.  It isn’t decreasing.  It hasn’t gone away.  It isn’t under control.  It is just being contained by one imperfect definition of what containment means.  But it is still a very real problem that has the potential to grow again very quickly.
> 
> ...


I do agree that some aspects of life do need to start getting back to normal. Simply because we could sit in for a year and it could still be active we just don't know so things do need to start getting back to normal. But you still have to be very careful. As I've said a group of 5 adults training on a field doing solo work and making sure there's a distance between each other then fair enough as long as everyones being sensible but kids is just a stupid idea frankly. Kids can't and won't remain at distance and a group of kids if it gets spread for them they'll go home and infect parents, brothers, sisters etc


----------



## Flying Crane (May 15, 2020)

Headhunter said:


> I do agree that some aspects of life do need to start getting back to normal. Simply because we could sit in for a year and it could still be active we just don't know so things do need to start getting back to normal. But you still have to be very careful. As I've said a group of 5 adults training on a field doing solo work and making sure there's a distance between each other then fair enough as long as everyones being sensible but kids is just a stupid idea frankly. Kids can't and won't remain at distance and a group of kids if it gets spread for them they'll go home and infect parents, brothers, sisters etc


Yeah, it’s that gradual and careful thing.  Which is often what I am not seeing.


----------



## skribs (May 15, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> Did I point to any political sources for my information



Yes, you did. Political fact checkers are usually partisan sites built to be linked in political debates.

That way you can say you're looking at independent fact checkers instead of political sites. It's misleading, if not downright deceitful.


----------



## skribs (May 15, 2020)

Headhunter said:


> No.....I mean your little conspiracy theory about hospital saying all deaths are from the virus. At the end of the day again you can justify it however you wish to but teaching kids right now is a very bad idea....there's a reason schools are closed



In my state, 0 children deaths, only 1 death of anyone under 40.

This whole "its for the children" nonsense is just fearmongering.


----------



## geezer (May 15, 2020)

Monkey Turned Wolf said:


> I was reading through this, and thinking that you have that third option right up until that last sentence. Especially at the double association dues portion.



Did you notice that the head instructor (who makes all these decisions) has a perspective on Covid-19 that's a lot like _Mr. Skribs?_ Of course that's his business. 

I live in another state and can't worry about people whose worldview is so different from mine. Especially since there's nothing I can do to change that perspective. The man is my personal friend, but we truly live in different worlds. l am truly sorry that I cannot continue to teach with his organization. He is technically very skilled and knowledgeable. 

On the other hand, this will free up more time for my Escrima.   And if this covid thing eventually is brought under control, maybe I can finally fulfill my long held dream of becoming the oldest white belt to start training at a nearby BJJ school I've had my eye on.


----------



## geezer (May 15, 2020)

skribs said:


> In my state, 0 children deaths, only 1 death of anyone under 40.
> 
> This whole "its for the children" nonsense is just fearmongering.



Dunno. My _kids_ will be pretty affected if my wife and I die. Their grandparents too (My dad is 95). Who will help them finish college?

On the bright side, my wife and I finally made out a real *will *...after 30 years of marriage .


----------



## geezer (May 15, 2020)

skribs said:


> In my state, 0 children deaths, only 1 death of anyone under 40.
> 
> This whole "its for the children" nonsense is just fearmongering.



BTW Skribs, what _is_ your state? Mine is lethargic and mildly depressed.


----------



## Headhunter (May 15, 2020)

skribs said:


> In my state, 0 children deaths, only 1 death of anyone under 40.
> 
> This whole "its for the children" nonsense is just fearmongering.


It's not about the children dying.....yeah more than likely the children won't die and will be perfectly fine....but thr children are the carriers they'll pass it on to  their parents who'll then pass it to their work colleagues and so on....again WHY ARE SCHOOLS CLOSED


----------



## Kung Fu Wang (May 15, 2020)

geezer said:


> My _kids_ will be pretty affected if my wife and I die.


Agree! People may not pay enough attention on this. Even if children may not die from it. Children can still pass it to his family members.

The attitude that "You only cry when you see coffin" is not good. Don't wait until everything is too late.


----------



## Headhunter (May 15, 2020)

skribs said:


> In my state, 0 children deaths, only 1 death of anyone under 40.
> 
> This whole "its for the children" nonsense is just fearmongering.


"Only 1" so what that one person who died is insignificant are they? That's one life to many that's been taken. That's someone's son or daughter or granchild or potentially mother or father been taken. You can call it fearmongering but I'd rather that everyone is scared and keeping away rather having more and more people dying. Yes more people die of flu and plenty of other things but people ARE dying from this and if there's a way to prevent more dying than you should be doing it. Not coming up with stupid conspiracy theories or worrying about opening up your martial art school


----------



## skribs (May 15, 2020)

Headhunter said:


> It's not about the children dying.....yeah more than likely the children won't die and will be perfectly fine....but thr children are the carriers they'll pass it on to  their parents who'll then pass it to their work colleagues and so on....again WHY ARE SCHOOLS CLOSED



You're right.  Your variables are the only ones that matter.  Variables like:

Kids stuck all day with abusive parents
Childhood obesity (which is going to rise if kids are stuck at home)
Lack of socialization with peers (real socialization, not social media)
But you've made up in your mind that you're right.  That your sources are "facts" and mine are "political."  So you probably don't want to hear about any variables that go against your opinion, either.


----------



## Monkey Turned Wolf (May 15, 2020)

skribs said:


> Yes, you did. Political fact checkers are usually partisan sites built to be linked in political debates.
> 
> That way you can say you're looking at independent fact checkers instead of political sites. It's misleading, if not downright deceitful.


I was the one who used the fact checker, not @Flying Crane . And they list how they come up with their answers and are transparent about it, so if transparency, facts, and sources is biased, then there's a bigger issue here. 

Here's an analysis done on whether or not there's bias with that political fact-checker, reported by poynter but done by independent researchers. Is PolitiFact biased? This content analysis says no - Poynter

And keep in mind that the result itself was half-true. They stated that there is a financial incentive, but that there's no evidence that people were diagnosing based on that incentive. 

Your linked articles were interesting though-and it's probably true that people are taking deaths where someone had COVID, and stating that it's a COVID death. 

The second link that you added (which was a factchecker, which confuses me), sources the person who made the initial claim about all of this, where it states 





> In an interview with FactCheck.org, however, Jensen said he did not think that hospitals were intentionally misclassifying cases for financial reasons.


 It then states 





> “There’s an implication here that hospitals are over-reporting their COVID patients because they have an economic advantage of doing so, [which] is really an outrageous claim,” Gerald Kominski, senior fellow at the UCLA Center for Health Policy Research, told us. And, he said, any suggestion that patients may be put on ventilators out of financial gain, not medical need, “is basically saying physicians are violating their Hippocratic Oath … it would be like providing heart surgery on someone who doesn’t need it.”


, and 





> He surmised that potential instances of patients being wrongly “upcoded” — or classified as COVID-19 when they’re not — are “trivial compared to these other forces that are affecting hospital finances.”
> 
> Berenson and others we spoke with also said that hospitals have profound disincentives for “upcoding,” which can result in criminal or civil liabilities, such as being susceptible to being kicked out of the Medicare program.
> 
> ...


 That last one gets at the crux of it. The number may be off. It probably is, which could be from overclassification (which is non-intentional/non-malicious), or underclassification (people dying from related things who didn't go to the hospital for whatever reason. Which if you work in a hospital and it's anything like here, you know people were actively avoiding going particularly at the beginning, even if they thought they had COVID). 

With the third link, from what I understand of it, that's referring to adding a 'presumed' factor. Which would fall into the suspected vs. confirmed range that people have taken as well.


----------



## skribs (May 15, 2020)

Headhunter said:


> "Only 1" so what that one person who died is insignificant are they? That's one life to many that's been taken. That's someone's son or daughter or granchild or potentially mother or father been taken. You can call it fearmongering but I'd rather that everyone is scared and keeping away rather having more and more people dying. Yes more people die of flu and plenty of other things but people ARE dying from this and if there's a way to prevent more dying than you should be doing it. Not coming up with stupid conspiracy theories or worrying about opening up your martial art school



I know you're trying to make this a bad thing, but yes.  If 1 death was a significant enough metric to make policy on, they'd have banned vending machines a long time ago.


----------



## Monkey Turned Wolf (May 15, 2020)

geezer said:


> Did you notice that the head instructor (who makes all these decisions) has a perspective on Covid-19 that's a lot like _Mr. Skribs?_ Of course that's his business.
> 
> I live in another state and can't worry about people whose worldview is so different from mine. Especially since there's nothing I can do to change that perspective. The man is my personal friend, but we truly live in different worlds. l am truly sorry that I cannot continue to teach with his organization. He is technically very skilled and knowledgeable.
> 
> On the other hand, this will free up more time for my Escrima.   And if this covid thing eventually is brought under control, maybe I can finally fulfill my long held dream of becoming the oldest white belt to start training at a nearby BJJ school I've had my eye on.


I highly doubt skribs' perspective is based on money. I've not got that sense from his and his conversations here, particularly since there have been parts in time where I believe he mentioned working for free to help out his dojo. I think it's more a result of living location-if you live somewhere where it's not that common *YET*, you're not going to be as concerned about it. I thought most of it was propaganda myself until it hit NY. The issue is that lack of concern is what causes it to get worse.


----------



## Headhunter (May 15, 2020)

skribs said:


> You're right.  Your variables are the only ones that matter.  Variables like:
> 
> Kids stuck all day with abusive parents
> Childhood obesity (which is going to rise if kids are stuck at home)
> ...


And your martial art school is going to come in and save the day is it? 

Abusive parents: there are still child services they haven't closed down and teachers at schools are still working and constantly checking in on students.

Obesity: people are still allowed out for exercise. No reason they can't go for a walk or a run or buy an exercise bike or whatever.

Socialisation: there are video chats for a reason. Yes it's not perfect but it's neccesary at the moment.

My "sources" is simply common sense and experience working with children and knowing you can't keep them 2 metres apart realistically. When this started I volunteered to go into a school that remained open for essential workers kids. There were 3 kids in the whole school and they couldn't keep apart from each other when playing at lunchtime. It simply won't happen


----------



## Monkey Turned Wolf (May 15, 2020)

skribs said:


> You're right.  Your variables are the only ones that matter.  Variables like:
> 
> Kids stuck all day with abusive parents
> Childhood obesity (which is going to rise if kids are stuck at home)
> ...


All of this is absolutely true, and children aren't the one suffering from this disease. IMO the bigger issue with kids, is that they are the ones _spreading_ the disease. They are much more likely to become asymptomatic, and I would bet (don't have a source for this, but it makes sense to me) that they are more likely, depending on the age, to either not care about social distancing, or forget about it and have to constantly be reminded to stop adjusting their mask, or stop going over to the stranger, or cover their mouths when they cough, all the normal stuff kids already had trouble remembering. That, combined with people not realizing they have it, means it would be very easy for a parent to have it, give it to a kid, when they congregate spread it through the kids, and end up with a bunch of sick parents.


----------



## Monkey Turned Wolf (May 15, 2020)

Monkey Turned Wolf said:


> All of this is absolutely true, and children aren't the one suffering from this disease. IMO the bigger issue with kids, is that they are the ones _spreading_ the disease. They are much more likely to become asymptomatic, and I would bet (don't have a source for this, but it makes sense to me) that they are more likely, depending on the age, to either not care about social distancing, or forget about it and have to constantly be reminded to stop adjusting their mask, or stop going over to the stranger, or cover their mouths when they cough, all the normal stuff kids already had trouble remembering. That, combined with people not realizing they have it, means it would be very easy for a parent to have it, give it to a kid, when they congregate spread it through the kids, and end up with a bunch of sick parents.


I just want to add to this-of the people that I know who have died from COVID, two of them had children. One of them had a teenager, and the other had a 6 month old and I think his daughter was 3 years old. So those kids will still be effected, but not in a traditional way, and so would any kids of parents who die from it. Luckily for them only one parent died in each, but that's also not a guarantee.


----------



## Headhunter (May 15, 2020)

skribs said:


> I know you're trying to make this a bad thing, but yes.  If 1 death was a significant enough metric to make policy on, they'd have banned vending machines a long time ago.


You know what I have nothing more to say to you. You go open up and teach kids from you want but frankly you're putting lives at risk. I hope you can live with the potential consequences of your actions


----------



## Flying Crane (May 15, 2020)

skribs said:


> Yes, you did. Political fact checkers are usually partisan sites built to be linked in political debates.
> 
> That way you can say you're looking at independent fact checkers instead of political sites. It's misleading, if not downright deceitful.


Wow.  First, I did not point to any fact checker websites.  Others did that.  I do find them useful and honest.  They often shed light on those who are indeed trying to be deceitful.

So let’s turn the question around:  is it only OK to believe political sources when they agree with you?  Are all others forbidden, fake news, “democratic hoax” as Covid-19 was called at least once, by a very prominent politician (that little chestnut ain’t fake news, it was said on film!)?


----------



## Flying Crane (May 15, 2020)

Monkey Turned Wolf said:


> I just want to add to this-of the people that I know who have died from COVID, two of them had children. One of them had a teenager, and the other had a 6 month old and I think his daughter was 3 years old. So those kids will still be effected, but not in a traditional way, and so would any kids of parents who die from it. Luckily for them only one parent died in each, but that's also not a guarantee.


Jeezuz, I am so sorry.  Were you close to them?


----------



## Monkey Turned Wolf (May 15, 2020)

skribs said:


> But you've made up in your mind that you're right.  That your sources are "facts" and mine are "political."  So you probably don't want to hear about any variables that go against your opinion, either.


Your also confusing all of us at this point. @Flying Crane was the one arguing that you should follow facts. I was the one who presented what you considered a political source, and @Headhunter hasn't mentioned ANY sources or I think even referred to the sources that I linked.


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## Monkey Turned Wolf (May 15, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> Jeezuz, I am so sorry.  Were you close to them?


So first-those aren't the only people I know who have died from it so far. Which might be why I'm still continuing this argument. But luckily for me-no, no one that I was super close to has died yet, that I'm aware of. A couple people that I _am _close to have gotten it, and were actually sick but none of them have died. All of them have recovered sans 1 of my coworkers/friends who has SOB/fever and is waiting for results/seeing if she can ride it out at home.


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## skribs (May 15, 2020)

I am leaving this thread.  If I continue to read and post here, I'm going to end up hating a lot of you.


----------



## Flying Crane (May 15, 2020)

Monkey Turned Wolf said:


> So first-those aren't the only people I know who have died from it so far. Which might be why I'm still continuing this argument. But luckily for me-no, no one that I was super close to has died yet, that I'm aware of. A couple people that I _am _close to have gotten it, and were actually sick but none of them have died. All of them have recovered sans 1 of my coworkers/friends who has SOB/fever and is waiting for results/seeing if she can ride it out at home.


I am really sorry, but honestly cannot be surprised since you are in ground zero.

I keep saying:  if we are not super careful then everywhere could become as severe as NYC.  If people are willing to say the name of their family member/friend (several actually) who they are willing to let die then I think we are ready to open quickly and carelessly.  If not, we need to proceed with caution.


----------



## Monkey Turned Wolf (May 15, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> I am really sorry, but honestly cannot be surprised since you are in ground zero.
> 
> I keep saying:  if we are not super careful then everywhere could become as severe as NYC.  If people are willing to say the name of their family member/friend (several actually) who they are willing to let die then I think we are ready to open quickly and carelessly.  If not, we need to proceed with caution.


I've accepted it, and know that things are getting better here. I also got lucky in a sense that I am not as affected as others. But I wish people would take caution from us, kind of like italy probably wished we took caution from them.


----------



## Kung Fu Wang (May 15, 2020)

Headhunter said:


> And your martial art school is going to come in and save the day is it?


We MA instructors may generate more violence into the society.

One day a girl called me and asked me if MA can be good for SD. I told her yes. She came to my house and showed me the bruise on her legs. She told me that her husband had beaten her up everyday. She spent 6 months in my school. During that time, people told me that she had beaten up her husband everyday. 6 months later she stopped coming to my school. Her husband came and spent 6 months instead. Today, I don't know who is the big boss in that family.

The above story is 100% true.


----------



## Headhunter (May 15, 2020)

Monkey Turned Wolf said:


> So first-those aren't the only people I know who have died from it so far. Which might be why I'm still continuing this argument. But luckily for me-no, no one that I was super close to has died yet, that I'm aware of. A couple people that I _am _close to have gotten it, and were actually sick but none of them have died. All of them have recovered sans 1 of my coworkers/friends who has SOB/fever and is waiting for results/seeing if she can ride it out at home.


A couple of people I know have gotten it and thankfully recovered but took a lot out of them mentally and physically. But I have known a couple of people who've died from. Not people I'm generally close to but people I knew in the past. That's why I am passionate about people not being stupid about this. Seeing people hanging around in parks drinking beers (and sharing beer cans as I've seen one occasion) it's just total stupidity. As for opening classes for kids I understand it's probably with the best intentions but it's also a huge risk of killing more people. As I've already said adults meeting up I can understand as long as they're sensible and make sure to keep their distance and use the correct protective equipment but children just won't do it...hell you have to constantly remind kids to wash their hands after going to the toilet so what chance do you have of keeping kids 2 meters away from each other when they're doing something fun


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## Kung Fu Wang (May 15, 2020)

Headhunter said:


> what chance do you have of keeping kids 2 meters away from each other when they're doing something fun


----------



## geezer (May 15, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> I was gonna ask why you belong to an association run by such a ship of fools and nincompoops?  *My dog,* but I would disassociate on the spot, if some idiot tried to sell me on that load of backwash.  Honestly, they are part of the problem.



First of all _Mr. Crane,_ do not take the _name of dog _in vain. I warn you, I'm an animal lover!

Secondly, the gentleman behind this policy really _believes_ in what he is doing. But like many of us, he lives in a self-reinforcing  information bubble. I know for a fact that he is a very intelligent guy, but he has a totally different background than I do.

I was raise by parents who were not "rich" but with more money than average, and _way more_ than I will ever have. In spite of myself, I had a first class education forced down my throat, one that emphasized being truly _open minded._ I had smart, educated parents who took me with them a couple of times when they travelled to Latin America or Europe. I even have a brainy older brother who went to undergrad at Dartmouth and graduate school at Oxford. Our neighbor and his best friend was truly a genius and went to Princeton, and has a couple of PhDs in theoretical physics and music or something. In short, I'm a struggling _middle class dummy_ who grew up around a lot of smart and _well educated_ people.

My friend running the MA association that I belong to is also_ really smart_, but from a southern, right-wing, religious fundamentalist background. He is very articulate and writes quite well, but is self-educated past high school. He chose to serve his country honorably in the military and study martial arts rather than go to college. He is a creationist who believes the earth is about 6,000 years old, that the Bible is the literal word of God, and he favors extremely right-wing perspectives. Sometimes he leans towards outright conspiracy theories (like the whole "birther" thing), and his view of this pandemic reflects that. In short, he quickly learns whatever he puts his mind to. He just puts his mind into a _very different place _than I do. And overalI, while I place a high value on the _principle of tolerance_, he favors _intolerance as a principle_.

...But, there you see, we are both _men of principle! _

Oh, and we both love animals. He was super sympathetic when he heard I just had to euthanize my dear old cat that I had the last 16 years.

Regardless, many people share my friend's point of view. Calling them fools, nincompoops, or "deplorables" doesn't help any more than labeling those of the other point of view as socialists, snowflakes, or "elites". Finding common ground is probably the greatest challenge of the moment ...right up there with stopping this pandemic. Heck, you really can't do one without the other. So let's start by not calling each other names.


----------



## Flying Crane (May 15, 2020)

geezer said:


> First of all _Mr. Crane,_ do not take the _name of dog _in vane. I warn you, I'm an animal lover!
> 
> Secondly, the gentleman behind this policy really _believes_ in what he is doing. But like many of us, he lives in a self-reinforcing  information bubble. I know for a fact that he is a very intelligent guy, but he has a totally different background than I do.
> 
> ...


I would never take the name of Dog in vain, sir.  And as a fellow cat owner who has lost some along the way, I am deeply sorry for your loss.  In addition, I inherited a colony of feral cats when I bought a previous house.  I trapped them and worked with the local SPCA  to have them fixed and returned to their environment where they could live without making more kittens.  They were my buddies and some didn’t make it along the way due to illnesses and injuries.  I know what it feels like.


----------



## Grenadier (May 15, 2020)

*Admin's Note:*

Keep it civil, stay on topic, and keep the politics out of it, folks.  

Consider this your only warning.


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## Danny T (May 15, 2020)

Yeah maybe I shouldn't be training.
Where I am we have had 12 Covid cases but almost 15,000 cases of influenza.


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## geezer (May 15, 2020)

Danny T said:


> Yeah maybe I shouldn't be training.
> Where I am we have had 12 Covid cases but almost 15,000 cases of influenza.



What? A flu pandemic too? I'm going to hide in the bedroom, under the covers! 

BTW, just _where_ are you again, Danny?


----------



## Danny T (May 15, 2020)

geezer said:


> What? A flu pandemic too? I'm going to hide in the bedroom, under the covers!
> 
> BTW, just _where_ are you again, Danny?



New Iberia, La.


----------



## geezer (May 16, 2020)

Danny T said:


> Yeah maybe I shouldn't be training.
> Where I am we have had 12 Covid cases but almost 15,000 cases of influenza.



Jeez! That sounds _terrible_. 15,000 cases of flu this year? I googled New Iberia, LA and the population was listed at around 30,000. _Half _of the people there got the flu this year? Or are you including a much larger area?

Also, I googled deaths by flu and pneumonia in New Iberia Parish  (prior to Covid-19) and the rates were listed at about 15 per 100,000 in the most recent years.
Source: Iberia Parish Influenza (Flu) & Pneumonia Death Statistics | LiveStories

Lack of consistent testing and a track record makes it much harder to be precise with Covid-19, but it does seem to be _far more contagious_, with significantly higher hospitalization rates and mortality rates. That said, it isn't like the black death, smallpox, or measles (before vaccines for smallpox and measles, and antibiotics to treat yersinia pestis).

Recent efforts to estimate the Covid-19 mortality rate, based on NYC data, have yielded the figure 1.4%, or _about ten times the rate of the seasonal flu _(taking into account under reporting of Covid-19 infection rates with possibly only a tenth of all cases being tested and reported and perhaps only half of the Covid-19 related deaths being reported)
Sources: Coronavirus Death Rate (COVID-19) - Worldometer

So, my take-away- _this thing really is a lot worse than ordinary, seasonal flu_ ...and unlike the flu, there's no vaccine or proven antiviral treatment yet. On the other hand, it's not nearly as bad as the 1918 "Spanish Flu" or the great plagues of history.
Refernce: How does the new coronavirus compare with the flu? | Live Science

So, my advice is go home, stay in bed, and have somebody bring you hot soup. And lots of crackers. Gotta have crackers. And hot sauce. Definitely!
...or I suppose, you could actually go on and live your life,  acting as responsibly as you can. I suppose some people might choose that. 

BTW, if I got the data above all screwed up, be kind. Sure, my dad was an MD, but I went to _Art School! _


----------



## Danny T (May 16, 2020)

geezer said:


> Jeez! That sounds _terrible_. 15,000 cases of flu this year? I googled New Iberia, LA and the population was listed at around 30,000. _Half _of the people there got the flu this year? Or are you including a much larger area?
> 
> Also, I googled deaths by flu and pneumonia in New Iberia Parish  (prior to Covid-19) and the rates were listed at about 15 per 100,000 in the most recent years.
> Source: Iberia Parish Influenza (Flu) & Pneumonia Death Statistics | LiveStories
> ...


Well according to the our Parish Health Unit totals we average about 12,000 cases of influenza per year. This year was a higher than usual year for us. We have approx. 75,000 people in the Iberia Parish. 30,000 in the City of New Iberia. Also I posted 'cases' of the flu not deaths from the flu. 

Louisiana is much warmer than NY and covid doesn't seem to like the higher temps. Though New Orleans was hard hit due to Madi Gras and locked down we haven't been as restricted.


----------



## Gerry Seymour (May 16, 2020)

Kung Fu Wang said:


> I don't personally eat meat, but I don't make fun of people that do.
> 
> Whether people eat meat or not is not my business. But when people don't wear face mask around me, it can be my business, or even my family members business.
> 
> ...


I have a mask with me at all times when I'm out. Whenever I'm going to be near someone, I put it on. If someone steps too close to me, I ask them to step back. I'm doing my best to protect others and myself, and don't really appreciate it when those around me aren't doing the same for me (masks are to protect others much more than the wearer).


----------



## Gerry Seymour (May 16, 2020)

Headhunter said:


> To be honest martial arts is the last thing I care about right now. Yeah not training sucks but I'm still doing my own stuff every day so not like I'm not doing any. Martial arts are not essential and tbh they should be the last things to reopen simply because it's probably the sport that has the most physical contact and simply it's not worth the risk


This is pretty much where I am. I'm considering setting up some outdoor classes (the moving air apparently reduces the risk of transmission) when things are closer to whatever the new normal is and doing just forms, exercise, and movement drills for a while. That'd allow for good distancing, give us all some exercise, and maybe bring in some folks who haven't made it to the early-morning Saturday class (the only time I'd been teaching).

But I'm in no hurry. I only had one serious student, and she'll be back whenever things open back up. All the rest probably won't come back to classes, so I'll just be starting fresh, anyway.


----------



## Gerry Seymour (May 16, 2020)

skribs said:


> Different ones have different opinions.  One of my fellow students is an ER Doctor, and he's saying we should be opening things back up.  Or should I listen to the doctors that say things you agree with, instead of the doctors I know and trust?
> 
> 
> 
> I could do my own stuff, or I could take a break.  However, most of my students are kids.  Kids that are stuck inside with their families all day, every day.  Kids that need exercise and entertainment.  Kids that need socialization.  The Zoom classes are okay, but the kids really need to be kids.


I listen to the epidemiologists and disease experts. They're mostly consistent in their views.


----------



## Gerry Seymour (May 16, 2020)

geezer said:


> ^^^The leadership of the association I belong to has absolutely _solved _this problem!
> 
> First, the heck with this "virus". They've simply started back up. At the HQ gym they _take the temperature_ of  students entering the gym, inform them _not to practice if they feel sick,_ and tell them _they can chose to wear masks_ if they want to.
> 
> ...


Yeah, third option, without hesitation. Sheesh.


----------



## Kung Fu Wang (May 16, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> I have a mask with me at all times when I'm out. Whenever I'm going to be near someone, I put it on.


I find out that sometime it will take me 5 seconds to pull my face mask off my pocket and then put it on. If I let my face mask to attack under my chin, I can pull it up within 1 second. That extra 4 seconds could mean life and death.

Since virus can get in through eyes, I decide to put my ski goggles on.






I'm seriously thinking about to order some equipment like this.

Deep Sea Diver Costume for Men


----------



## Monkey Turned Wolf (May 17, 2020)

Kung Fu Wang said:


> I find out that sometime it will take me 5 seconds to pull my face mask off my pocket and then put it on. If I let my face mask to attack under my chin, I can pull it up within 1 second. That extra 4 seconds could mean life and death.
> 
> Since virus can get in through eyes, I decide to put my ski goggles on.
> 
> ...


I don't think you need that full thing since it doesn't spread through perspiration (aka sweat). Covering your mask is for other people. Covering your face/eyes and washing your hands is for yourself. You should also in general be paying enough attention to your surroundings to notice someone five seconds away that is coming closer to you. The exception being around corners, but even then if you make a wide turn you should be okay.


----------



## Headhunter (May 17, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> This is pretty much where I am. I'm considering setting up some outdoor classes (the moving air apparently reduces the risk of transmission) when things are closer to whatever the new normal is and doing just forms, exercise, and movement drills for a while. That'd allow for good distancing, give us all some exercise, and maybe bring in some folks who haven't made it to the early-morning Saturday class (the only time I'd been teaching).
> 
> But I'm in no hurry. I only had one serious student, and she'll be back whenever things open back up. All the rest probably won't come back to classes, so I'll just be starting fresh, anyway.


Yeah a few places are doing that now around here outside classes with only 5 people each


----------



## Monkey Turned Wolf (May 17, 2020)

Danny T said:


> Well according to the our Parish Health Unit totals we average about 12,000 cases of influenza per year. This year was a higher than usual year for us. We have approx. 75,000 people in the Iberia Parish. 30,000 in the City of New Iberia. Also I posted 'cases' of the flu not deaths from the flu.
> 
> Louisiana is much warmer than NY and covid doesn't seem to like the higher temps. Though New Orleans was hard hit due to Madi Gras and locked down we haven't been as restricted.


So mostly out of boredom I decided to look into this. I focused specifically on deaths in my search because that's really what I care about. Which ignores that an equal number of flu vs. an equal number of covid would mean more covid deaths because honestly I can't claim that without knowing full well what the percent of covid deaths actually is (which probably won't be known until this fall). I found that in the Iberia Parish there was a 0.0165% of the male population and 0.0127% of the female population that died of the flu each year. I checked on based on CDC reporting, and .031% of the population in the iberia parish has died from covid. As far as having covid from what I could find, it's .485% of the population. Which is more than the flu, but admittedly not at a percent that I'd be concerned about if I lived there. 

As for the idea that they don't like higher temps; If the temperature is below 133 fahrenheit, it can still live there. https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-warm-weather-will-not-slow-covid-19-transmission

Now like I said I probably wouldn't be concerned about a .031% death rate or a .485% infection rate. But my concern is that each area that got a larger infection rate had that at some point or another. And personally I'm not too concerned about your facility-you seem to be doing everything right. You are taking people's temperatures at the door, monitoring for symptoms, and I presume you are telling people as they enter that they are doing so at their own risk and their families risk, so this really isn't directed at you. But it's important to keep in mind that with any pandemic the number can shoot up in a day, before you're aware of it. And the sucky thing about this virus is that it's most infectious before you show symptoms, so it can spread through your county before you're aware of the spread. And I linked the one site, but from what I can see louisiana is not close enough to the equator to discount it from heat (the wuhan latitude is 30.5928'N, while Iberia parish is 29.4993° N. So while you guys are about a degree closer to the equator, it's not enough to discount weather. And Wuhan is where it all started to begin with).

Again, I'm not saying you guys should or shouldn't be open. My recommendation, if you want to avoid the accidental death of any of your clients or their families (or yourself) would be to operate over zoom. And that's what the schools near me are doing without any loss in income (everyone who can afford to continue to pay for zoom classes is doing so during this time, with no complaints, so the studios near me are still doing okay despite not opening up physically), but I do support you taking the safety measures that you're taking for the time being.


----------



## Gerry Seymour (May 17, 2020)

Kung Fu Wang said:


> I find out that sometime it will take me 5 seconds to pull my face mask off my pocket and then put it on. If I let my face mask to attack under my chin, I can pull it up within 1 second. That extra 4 seconds could mean life and death.
> 
> Since virus can get in through eyes, I decide to put my ski goggles on.
> 
> ...


The mask does little to protect me. It is (as others have said) more about protecting others, in case I'm carrying and don't know it.

I keep my mask tucked in my belt. I have it on and off dozens of times a day (I'm currently driving for one of the food delivery companies), and it takes about a second to put it on/off.


----------



## Gerry Seymour (May 17, 2020)

Headhunter said:


> Yeah a few places are doing that now around here outside classes with only 5 people each


Which would be as large as my regular classes have gotten in the last few years, anyway.


----------



## Flying Crane (May 17, 2020)

Monkey Turned Wolf said:


> As for the idea that they don't like higher temps; If the temperature is below 133 fahrenheit, it can still live there. https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-warm-weather-will-not-slow-covid-19-transmission



from what I understand, what it typical of viruses is that they do better in colder, dry weather and not as well in warmer wetter weather.  This is why there is talk that perhaps Covid-19 will be reduced during the summer months, as often happens with colds and the flu.  But this is a new virus that is not yet fully understood, and what is typical of other viruses may be irrelevant to this one.  One thing Andrew Cuomo keeps saying is that this virus has been ahead of us every step of the way.  We think we know something about it, and then we find out we are wrong.  I agree with him.  So it is prudent to err on the side of caution when we are speculating in any way about this virus, or making assumptions based on what is true of other viruses.



> But it's important to keep in mind that with any pandemic the number can shoot up in a day, before you're aware of it. And the sucky thing about this virus is that *it's most infectious before you show symptoms, so it can spread through your county before you're aware of the spread*.



This is what cannot be emphasized enough.  This virus is infectious well before any symptoms show, unfortunately with a lot of people never showing symptoms at all.  Lucky for those individuals, they get through it with no trouble.  Not so lucky for anyone who might contract it from those people, and may become very sick and may die.

In an environment where widespread public testing for infection is still not available, it is certainly prudent to monitor for symptoms.  At least it is something and should help spread the infection somewhat.  But that alone is far from a realistic containment of the infection because of the infectiousness before and without symptoms.  Anyone who believes that keeping away from folks who are showing symptoms is enough to keep them from contracting Covid-19 is missing a huge part of the picture.  The threat of infection is much much greater than just those showing symptoms.


----------



## CB Jones (May 17, 2020)

Where my son trains is opening this week and the instructor said to come ready to spar.

Jake is happy.


----------



## Headhunter (May 17, 2020)

CB Jones said:


> Where my son trains is opening this week and the instructor said to come ready to spar.
> 
> Jake is happy.


Wow....are you serious? Very irresponsible.....lets just hope he doesn't spar with anyone who's got the virus...


----------



## donald1 (May 17, 2020)

Like the rest of you guys I sure can't wait till things are normal again ,but until then its training at home. My condolences to people without backyards or anywhere to train.

Not sure if any schools won't be able to open when this is over. But if so then my condolences to them too.


----------



## CB Jones (May 17, 2020)

Headhunter said:


> Wow....are you serious? Very irresponsible



I disagree.  Our area had very few cases and was not impacted and our region has been on a steady decline. 

People know the risks now and should be allowed to make choices for themselves.


----------



## Flying Crane (May 17, 2020)

CB Jones said:


> Where my son trains is opening this week and the instructor said to come ready to spar.
> 
> Jake is happy.


Well, this strikes me as too much too soon.  Maybe your region can support opening within some limitations.  But the kind of close proximity that sparring involves is something I suspect is crossing the line.

Once again, your region may be low now.  But we live in a highly mobile society and it could be brought in from elsewhere.  It could spike tomorrow but nobody recognizes it for another week because few people are showing symptoms early, and yet many people are contagious.  And then everyone has been too close to each other during that time.  And I’ve got to ask: how much testing of the general population in you area has been done in order to know that the numbers are in fact low, and not merely unrecognized?

My opinion: that is a really risky move.  I wouldn’t let my child do it yet.  I wouldn’t do it for myself yet.

People seem to believe that if their region hasn’t shown high numbers of cases yet then the separation and distancing were all for nothing.  But in reality, the low number of cases is _because_ _of_ the distancing and separation.  You dodged the bullet.

If someone is shooting at you and you duck for cover and don’t get hit, do you conclude that ducking for cover was pointless?  We need to keep ducking for cover for a while.


----------



## Headhunter (May 17, 2020)

CB Jones said:


> I disagree.  Our area had very few cases and was not impacted and our region has been on a steady decline.
> 
> People know the risks now and should be allowed to make choices for themselves.


You've had very few CONFIRMED CASES doesn't mean there's not loads around that just haven't been found. In my area there's 300 confirmed cases but everyone knows there's probably been hundreds more with it. Yeah okay your on a steady decline but start throwing kids into sparring each other and other close contact activities and see how long that lasts.

Let's not forget a lot of people don't show symptoms especially kids. So someone could turn up to your kids club with the virus and infect everyone without even knowing they're doing it.

As I've said I can understand adult classes starting again but with correct social distancing, just doing drills in the air and exercises etc 100% shouldnt be sparring. Is your kids club going to be taking any precautions at all? Are they cleaning all the equipment thoroughly before and after each use. Is everyone being told to wash their hands before and after class?

Your son is a kid...of course if he has the choice of going out or staying in he's going to go out...doesn't make it the right choice.

I hope your kids instructor is ready for a potential lawsuit if someone gets sick or dies from his poor judgement


----------



## Headhunter (May 17, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> Well, this strikes me as too much too soon.  Maybe your region can support opening within some limitations.  But the kind of close proximity that sparring involves is something I suspect is crossing the line.
> 
> Once again, your region may be low now.  But we live in a highly mobile society and it could be brought in from elsewhere.  It could spike tomorrow but nobody recognizes it for another week because few people are showing symptoms early, and yet many people are contagious.  And then everyone has been too close to each other during that time.  And I’ve got to ask: how much testing of the general population has been done in order to know that the numbers are in fact low, and not merely unrecognized?
> 
> ...


Exactly I've made my feeling on kids training clear already. As I've said adults yeah sure but with the correct distancing not sparring....god right now if I was told we were allowed to spar I still wouldn't do it yet....I thought my area was relaxing things quick but if clubs are allowed to be sparring already that's just dumb frankly....here public fitness gyms aren't even open yet


----------



## Headhunter (May 17, 2020)

CB Jones said:


> I disagree.  Our area had very few cases and was not impacted and our region has been on a steady decline.
> 
> People know the risks now and should be allowed to make choices for themselves.


also I'm sick of hearing that nonsense "they should be allowed to make their own choices" no they shouldn't because it's not just themself they're putting at risk. It's everyone they come into contact with they have the potential to kill. Family, friends, random strangers in the street.

So no people shouldn't be allowed to make their own choices right now....it's because of people making their own choice that's got the world into this mess in the first place with people making their own choice to travel and infect over countries, people's choice to go into work and risk getting their friends sick.

This isn't a game right now....this is people's lives being seriously put at risk.....me personally I'm not willing to do that for a bit of sparring


----------



## CB Jones (May 17, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> Well, this strikes me as too much too soon. Maybe your region can support opening within some limitations. But the kind of close proximity that sparring involves is something I suspect is crossing the line.



Well we can agree to disagree.  

Most things have opened back up around us.  And everything looks like it doesn't affect teenagers that much.

And from all the cases I have seen it doesn't look that bad for regular people that don't have underlying conditions or who aren't elderly.

Daily briefings indicate we are in pretty good shape and we returned back to work last week.


----------



## Flying Crane (May 17, 2020)

CB Jones said:


> Well we can agree to disagree.
> 
> Most things have opened back up around us.  And everything looks like it doesn't affect teenagers that much.
> 
> ...


My gut tells me this is a big mistake and eventually the magnitude of it will become clear.  It might take a little while.  I hope I am wrong.


----------



## geezer (May 17, 2020)

CB Jones said:


> Where my son trains is opening this week and the instructor said to come ready to spar.
> *Jake is happy.*



I think it's _great_ that Jake is happy! Besides, kids are resilient, you know. They are also _germy_ little buggers. Hope he doesn't carry something home and kill grampa. 

....unless, maybe you stand to inherit a lot? Personally, my dad's 95. We talk on the phone a often. I really like having him alive.


----------



## CB Jones (May 17, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> My gut tells me this is a big mistake and eventually the magnitude of it will become clear.  It might take a little while.  I hope I am wrong.



From what I hear, we are in a lull that will go through the summer and then the 2nd wave will come in the fall.

For example, currently at the Covid 19 shelter I work at we have 2 patients.


----------



## CB Jones (May 17, 2020)

geezer said:


> Hope he doesn't carry something home and kill grampa.



Well, Grampa doesn't live with us and Jake isn't around him...


----------



## geezer (May 17, 2020)

BTW - I worked out with a couple of my Escrima guys this morning, wearing a mask and mostly keeping some distance. But, like always ...we probably got a little too close during a couple of paired drills, and I found myself instinctively doing some "live hand" checks to the arm and even the body of my partners. It happens. That's the problem with rushing things.

In our case, we wear masks, use hand sanitizer, and break to chill-out a bit when we start ramping it up with a little too much contact. The problem is, like CB's son Jake, this is what makes us _happy.  

Oh, and CB, _don't mind me. I was just born a smart-***.


----------



## geezer (May 17, 2020)

CB Jones said:


> From what I hear, *we are in a lull that will go through the summer and then the 2nd wave will come in the fall.*
> For example, currently at the Covid 19 shelter I work at we have 2 patients.



Yeah! That's what I'm hearing too. And that's not good news. I don't think our economy can take another prolonged shut down. And I'll be 65 in July.  ...Don't really want to die next fall. But, like I said in an earlier post, I did finally get a will & trust made out to take care of my kids. So that's good, right?


----------



## CB Jones (May 17, 2020)

geezer said:


> Yeah! That's what I'm hearing too. And that's not good news. I don't think our economy can take another prolonged shut down. And I'll be 65 in July.  ...Don't really want to die next fall. But, like I said in an earlier post, I did finally get a will & trust made out to take care of my kids. So that's good, right?



Good news is treatments are getting better.

My dad is 73 and has been on oxygen for the last year and a half (has smoked for 50 years) and have been on pretty strict quarantine


----------



## Flying Crane (May 17, 2020)

CB Jones said:


> From what I hear, we are in a lull that will go through the summer and then the 2nd wave will come in the fall.
> 
> For example, currently at the Covid 19 shelter I work at we have 2 patients.


Those are inferences based on how other viruses behave.  No guarantee that this one will behave in the same way.

You have two known cases in the shelter.  Which means likely a fair number of unknowns due to a lack of testing availability to the general public.  That number can change quickly.

This thing is still very much with us.  The bullets are still flying and we need to keep dodging.


----------



## CB Jones (May 17, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> This thing is still very much with us. The bullets are still flying and we need to keep dodging.



Well if the Casinos can open......I think we will be OK in a small karate class of 10-12 people.


----------



## Flying Crane (May 17, 2020)

CB Jones said:


> Well if the Casinos can open......I think we will be OK in a small karate class of 10-12 people.


Casinos being open is downright stupid.  Is that the gauge by which you determine your own actions?

And to be clear, you are not describing a class of 10-12 adults in a basketball court where they can had space between them.  You are describing a class for youth, which intends to include sparring.  So, close physical contact.  Heavy breathing at and on each other.  Which typically includes some amount of airborne saliva.


----------



## CB Jones (May 17, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> Casinos being open is downright stupid.  Is that the gauge by which you determine your own actions?
> 
> And to be clear, you are not describing a class of 10-12 adults in a basketball court where they can had space between them.  You are describing a class for youth, which intends to include sparring.  So, close physical contact.  Heavy breathing at and on each other.  Which typically includes some amount of airborne saliva.



Well it was a joke...made tongue in cheek.

We will be alright.


----------



## Flying Crane (May 17, 2020)

CB Jones said:


> Well it was a joke...made tongue in cheek.
> 
> We will be alright.


But the class description is accurate.

And I hope you are in fact alright.  But that remains to be seen.


----------



## Gerry Seymour (May 17, 2020)

CB Jones said:


> Well we can agree to disagree.
> 
> Most things have opened back up around us.  And everything looks like it doesn't affect teenagers that much.
> 
> ...


You have to make your decisions for yourself. I'd just like to point out that otherwise healthy, under-40 people are dying rather suddenly in some cases. This is a virus that hasn't yet shown a "typical" face - it seems to have several different ways it affects people, and not always based on recognizable underlying problems.


----------



## Gerry Seymour (May 17, 2020)

CB Jones said:


> From what I hear, we are in a lull that will go through the summer and then the 2nd wave will come in the fall.
> 
> For example, currently at the Covid 19 shelter I work at we have 2 patients.


The models I saw that showed that lull were predicated on general lockdown lasting until June. 4 weeks later, there would be a small rise (about how long it seems to take for spread to become evident). That would magnify over the next 60 days, taking us to the beginning of fall. The second wave isn't on summer break, it just takes a while to manifest when things re-open. The sooner people get together, the sooner that second wave comes (and the larger it's likelly to be, according to the models).


----------



## JowGaWolf (May 18, 2020)

skribs said:


> If your government is going to re-open all at once, are you going to re-open as soon as you are able, or wait for some of the craziness to subside?
> 
> If your government is phasing the re-opening, are you going to open at the earliest phase you can and comply with restrictions, or are you going to wait until you can fully re-open?
> 
> ...


I was in the process of opening a Martial Arts school but now I'm just going to continue to work some stuff online and figure out what's the best way to offer online and in person training (once there's a vaccine).  I'm not in a rush to open up a physical location with the way things are now.  For me it's not worth the risk.  Like the worst that can happen isn't a black eye, it's death, and it's not just my death but it could mean death to members of my family.  I'm used to the worst case scenario being. I get sued and I loose my business or I loose my business because I have no students.  BJJ and grappling students are going to have a really difficult time staying afloat.  Any martial art or striking system should be able to transition into an online interactive format.  Hell, if Peloton can have indoor online cycling classes then it should be possible to do kung fu and other martial arts online as well.

I think the biggest mistake that people are making in terms are opening up is to ask. Simple business questions.
1. If I open up will people come or will they be too concern about the virus to risk it.
2. If I open up will I make enough money to cover costs?
3. Will I generate more costs by opening than the money that I make.  At this point it's financially better to just stay close then to generate more cost by being open than you would by being closed.

The world that we used to know pre-Covid -19 has changed forever.  Nothing is ever going back to the way it was even after a vaccine.  I could be wrong,  but if I remember correctly, the reason Americans like their personal space, is because of how much the Spanish flue of 1918 changed things.  Things like blowing out candles on a birthday can and then eating the cake that someone just blew on will probably be a thing of the past now, even with a vaccine.  There will be other changes as well.  More stores and shops will probably implement delivery or shipping.  And now small businesses probably see the value of why they need a website that can accept payment and handle orders and subscriptions.  

If your martial arts school already has an online class capability then you are probably still in good shape.  You may have to drop the price a little but that's fine considering any overhead cost that you may have for a physical loation.

But for me.  I'm looking into how to present the best online classes in a way that makes people want to tune in.  I'm also hoping to get a better location as businesses close and prices for business space drops significantly.  If I time it correctly I may be able to get good deal right before everything gets better.   I just need to make sure I can cover a year or two.  The worst case scenario of that is that I'll have a good training location to video in, that doesn't look like my garage or my drive way.


----------



## Headhunter (May 18, 2020)

CB Jones said:


> From what I hear, we are in a lull that will go through the summer and then the 2nd wave will come in the fall.
> 
> For example, currently at the Covid 19 shelter I work at we have 2 patients.


Well that's a load of bs for a start because no one knows what's going to happen


----------



## Headhunter (May 18, 2020)

CB Jones said:


> Well we can agree to disagree.
> 
> Most things have opened back up around us.  And everything looks like it doesn't affect teenagers that much.
> 
> ...


As has been said. Yeah it probably doesn't affect teenagers much. But they pass it on to other people who can get sick. Most things opening up. Well yes fair enough things like shops yes they do need to open eventually but martial art schools are extremely un essential and have the greatest risk for other people...especially if they're being ignorant and not taking precautions.

As I said hope the instructor is ready for the potential lawsuit


----------



## Headhunter (May 18, 2020)

CB Jones said:


> Well it was a joke...made tongue in cheek.
> 
> We will be alright.


You'll be alright?

Huh wonder many people said that before stupidly going on their holidays.

Fact is you don't know if you'll be alright. Or if your kid will be alright or any of the people he's training with will be alright. No one knows. Right now even stepping outside to go to the shop is a 50/50 gamble


----------



## dvcochran (May 18, 2020)

Headhunter said:


> You'll be alright?
> 
> Huh wonder many people said that before stupidly going on their holidays.
> 
> Fact is you don't know if you'll be alright. Or if your kid will be alright or any of the people he's training with will be alright. No one knows. Right now even stepping outside to go to the shop is a 50/50 gamble



It is astounding how many people are living in rampant fear. It is as if some of you crave it. No one Knew if they were going to be 'alright' before the virus started. There is just so much we don't know that we don't know. Has always been and always will be. 
It is everyone's responsibility to be as informed as possible and make their best decisions based on the information at hand. The key is having ALL the information which frankly is near impossible. Yes, that also means we should be as predictive as reasonably possible. So listening to only a few sources or examples for information is unwise, whichever side of the equation you lean toward. There is a Lot of fear mongering and political spin going on out there right now. And apparently a Lot of doctors/hospitals that are  capitalizing off the term(s) "coronavirus/COVID 19". The data at hand regarding this virus is full of holes and inaccuracies at best. Only time will hopefully unravel the truth. 
I commend @CB Jones for living life to the fullest and doing what he can to make sure his son and family do the same. 
I am truly sorry that some parts of the nation are having a harder time.


----------



## Kung Fu Wang (May 18, 2020)

I suppose to be in California today. Since I don't know what kind of risk that I have to take to stay in hotel for 2 night (1 night in El Paso, and another night in Phoenix), I decide to wait.

I have heard that Trump had open his hotel that require customers to bring their own towels. That doesn't sound very safe at all.

Until the medicine came out, it's always good to be careful. After all, we only live once. If we can't fight against it, we can always stay away from it.


----------



## jobo (May 18, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> You have to make your decisions for yourself. I'd just like to point out that otherwise healthy, under-40 people are dying rather suddenly in some cases. This is a virus that hasn't yet shown a "typical" face - it seems to have several different ways it affects people, and not always based on recognizable underlying problems.


they are, the uk media makes a big thing of every one, but they do seem to be the smallest % of the deaths, very sad non the less, a family friend who works as a nurse has just been diagnosed with it, so far she has a sore throat, im hoping its stays like that.

with out actual data and that seems in very short supply, its very difficult to make an informed decision if our healthy 40 yo faces a death risk of extremely unlikely or astronomically unlikely


----------



## JowGaWolf (May 18, 2020)

Kung Fu Wang said:


> I suppose to be in California today. Since I don't know what kind of risk that I have to take to stay in hotel for 2 night (1 night in El Paso, and another night in Phoenix), I decide to wait.
> 
> I have heard that Trump had open his hotel that require customers to bring their own towels. That doesn't sound very safe at all.
> 
> Until the medicine came out, it's always good to be careful. After all, we only live once. If we can't fight against it, we can always stay away from it.


 I feel the same way about the risk.


----------



## geezer (May 18, 2020)

Kung Fu Wang said:


> I have heard that Trump had open his hotel that *require customers to bring their own towels*. That doesn't sound very safe at all.



That's odd. Doing laundry with bleach is one of the few things that seems pretty effective ...and normal for a hotel. I'd certainly hope they are already sanitizing all their linens!


----------



## JowGaWolf (May 18, 2020)

geezer said:


> That's odd. Doing laundry with bleach is one of the few things that seems pretty effective ...and normal for a hotel. I'd certainly hope they are already sanitizing all their linens!


Hotels can be really nasty even when you think it's clean.  Sheets aren't always washed and towels aren't always clean.
How much (and how little) do some hotel maids really clean?
Video in link


----------



## Kung Fu Wang (May 18, 2020)

geezer said:


> That's odd. Doing laundry with bleach is one of the few things that seems pretty effective ...and normal for a hotel. I'd certainly hope they are already sanitizing all their linens!



Trump's Mar-a-Lago Club will start allowing guests back this weekend. They'll have to bring their own towels.


----------



## geezer (May 18, 2020)

JowGaWolf said:


> Hotels can be really nasty even when you think it's clean.  Sheets aren't always washed and towels aren't always clean.
> How much (and how little) do some hotel maids really clean?
> Video in link


----------



## jobo (May 19, 2020)

geezer said:


> That's odd. Doing laundry with bleach is one of the few things that seems pretty effective ...and normal for a hotel. I'd certainly hope they are already sanitizing all their linens!


I THINK ITS TO PROTECT THE STAFF FROM THE DIRTY TOWELS NOT THE CUSTOMERS FROM THE CLEAN ONES


----------



## Kung Fu Wang (May 19, 2020)

jobo said:


> I THINK ITS TO PROTECT THE STAFF FROM THE DIRTY TOWELS NOT THE CUSTOMERS FROM THE CLEAN ONES


A

- restaurant is closed to protect the waiters,
- barbershop is closed to protect the barber,
- MA school is closed to protect the MA teacher,
- ...,

from the virus.


----------



## Gerry Seymour (May 20, 2020)

geezer said:


> That's odd. Doing laundry with bleach is one of the few things that seems pretty effective ...and normal for a hotel. I'd certainly hope they are already sanitizing all their linens!


I haven't looked for data on it, but doing laundry with soap should be plenty effective. Soap does effectively break down the virus.


----------



## CB Jones (May 20, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> I haven't looked for data on it, but doing laundry with soap should be plenty effective. Soap does effectively break down the virus.



Soap is very effective in breaking down the corona virus sometimes better than alcohol.

Soap molecules bond to the virus outer layer and pull the virus apart.


----------



## geezer (May 20, 2020)

CB Jones said:


> Soap is very effective in breaking down the corona virus sometimes better than alcohol.
> 
> Soap molecules bond to the virus outer layer and pull the virus apart.



*Covid-19:* "I'm going to sicken thousands and kill your granma. _Bwaaahaaaahaaaa!"_

*Soap:* "Not so fast, evil virus. I'm going to tear you apart!"


----------



## Gweilo (May 20, 2020)

My plan, I am gonna give it back to the Chinese


----------



## geezer (May 20, 2020)

Gweilo said:


> My plan, I am gonna *give it* back to the Chinese



Covid or soap?


----------



## Gerry Seymour (May 21, 2020)

CB Jones said:


> Soap is very effective in breaking down the corona virus sometimes better than alcohol.
> 
> Soap molecules bond to the virus outer layer and pull the virus apart.


Agreed. And I assume that process is fully effective in laundry, though I've not looked for a study on it.


----------



## CB Jones (May 21, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> Agreed. And I assume that process is fully effective in laundry, though I've not looked for a study on it.



It is.  The stuff that breaks down and removes lipids (fats and oils) from your clothes is the same stuff that destroys the virus.

  Amphiphiles in the soap are attracted to lipids and bonds to them which pulls them apart.  Since the viruses have a fatty outer wall the Amphiphiles are attracted to them as well.


----------



## Gerry Seymour (May 21, 2020)

Apropos of some earlier discussions in this thread: I read an article today that it is unlikely warmer weather will reduce the novel coronavirus much, because there's too little immunity. We've already seen major outbreaks in areas that were quite warm at the time of the outbreak.

Going to be a long year.


----------



## Headhunter (May 22, 2020)

Have just seen that some bjj schools have fully reopened......man there really is no limit to human stupidity...you can't teach stupid....looks like you can't quarantine it either


----------



## dvcochran (May 22, 2020)

Yet it sure seems easy to lead some people around by making them think living in fear is okay. Now... that is stupid.


----------



## CB Jones (May 22, 2020)

It is nice to get back to a little bit of normalcy...even if it is just in parts.

Being stuck at home the last few months have been tough.


----------



## Headhunter (May 22, 2020)

dvcochran said:


> Yet it sure seems easy to lead some people around by making them think living in fear is okay. Now... that is stupid.


Tell that to everyone's who's lost family members because people can't listen. Yeah sure I'm listening to what I'm being told. Say I'm living in fear if you want. I'd rather live in fear than get members of my family extremely sick or worse. I personally don't think a unimportant martial art lesson is worth risking my families health. Again there's a reason businesses closed down, there's a reason schools closed down, there's a reason people can't visit people in hospital and most appointments cancelled. This isn't just being done for the fun of it (despite the stupid conspiracy theories )


----------



## jobo (May 22, 2020)

Headhunter said:


> Tell that to everyone's who's lost family members because people can't listen. Yeah sure I'm listening to what I'm being told. Say I'm living in fear if you want. I'd rather live in fear than get members of my family extremely sick or worse. I personally don't think a unimportant martial art lesson is worth risking my families health. Again there's a reason businesses closed down, there's a reason schools closed down, there's a reason people can't visit people in hospital and most appointments cancelled. This isn't just being done for the fun of it (despite the stupid conspiracy theories )


 its very debatable if any of those things actually made much difference to the death toll, on an individual basis, if you stop home and have no visitors your undoubtedly at significantly less risk of catching it, but thats not what people, well most people could do, the moment your going shopping or for some exercise your back in the firing line


----------



## Gerry Seymour (May 22, 2020)

jobo said:


> its very debatable if any of those things actually made much difference to the death toll, on an individual basis, if you stop home and have no visitors your undoubtedly at significantly less risk of catching it, but thats not what people, well most people could do, the moment your going shopping or for some exercise your back in the firing line


If there are 50% fewer people in a store than usual (and the remaning folks make use of the space to keep some distance), your risk of contracting (or spreading) the virus is commensurately reduced. I can't find an immunologist or epidemiologist of any repute who doesn't hold that opinion.


----------



## CB Jones (May 22, 2020)

Your Covid-19 is no match for our Korean Karate


----------



## Kung Fu Wang (May 22, 2020)

jobo said:


> the moment your going shopping or for some exercise your back in the firing line


This is why I'm teaching only 1 student right now. Instead of asking him to pay me, he will do the shopping for me. I have not been in grocery store since 3/1.

I prefer to take my risk against 1 person with face mask and social distance than to go to grocery store myself.


----------



## Flying Crane (May 22, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> If there are 50% fewer people in a store than usual (and the remaning folks make use of the space to keep some distance), your risk of contracting (or spreading) the virus is commensurately reduced. I can't find an immunologist or epidemiologist of any repute who doesn't hold that opinion.


It is certainly reduced but six feet is by no means a magic number beyond which you are suddenly safe.  So wearing a mask is still critical, and I am shocked every time I go to Target at how many people are not wearing masks, both employees and customers.  If people are not wearing a mask, droplets can become airborn and travel much farther than six feet, and if people are “loud talkers” or are singing or coughing or sneezing, it can travel much farther than that. 

So yeah, reducing the capacity by 50% helps, but things like wearing masks is still critical and it all remains far from a guarantee.


----------



## jobo (May 23, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> If there are 50% fewer people in a store than usual (and the remaning folks make use of the space to keep some distance), your risk of contracting (or spreading) the virus is commensurately reduced. I can't find an immunologist or epidemiologist of any repute who doesn't hold that opinion.


 that has certain vagueness in it , how many people are usually in the store, what the density of those people and how much room do the other people give you ?

and by how much is your risk reduced /

this is rhetorical, you clearly cant answer as you dont know, but then neither does anybody else, making claims its had any noticeable effect on the death impossible to substantiate


whats clear to me is the 2 m rule they have tried to enforce in the UK is completely inadequate, when your going to stand 2 m from other people for an hour or more to get into the shop and are then going to interact with the check out staff at considerably less than 2 m, and received money that hasn't been sterilised

and whilst large supermarkets, may be able to put some controls in place, the extended queuing they have set up has driven people to shop at small local stores that dont have the means to set up entry control or enough room to allow any distancing to take place for the increased volume of people, they have taken a relatively low risk environment and moved the problem to multiple high risk environments, quite possibly greatly increasing the deaths>? but almost certainly negating any benefits the supermarket controls have given

the science may be good, the application of that science is some what different


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## jobo (May 23, 2020)

Kung Fu Wang said:


> This is why I'm teaching only 1 student right now. Instead of asking him to pay me, he will do the shopping for me. I have not been in grocery store since 3/1.
> 
> I prefer to take my risk against 1 person with face mask and social distance than to go to grocery store myself.


 you appear to be exploiting your student to increase their risk of infection in return for lessons, if its safe for him to do your shopping its equally safe for you to do it yourself


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## Headhunter (May 23, 2020)

jobo said:


> you appear to be exploiting your student to increase their risk of infection in return for lessons, if its safe for him to do your shopping its equally safe for you to do it yourself


He's going next stage karate kid on the guy....never mind wax the floor or paint the fence. Now it's get my shopping


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## Headhunter (May 23, 2020)

Kung Fu Wang said:


> This is why I'm teaching only 1 student right now. Instead of asking him to pay me, he will do the shopping for me. I have not been in grocery store since 3/1.
> 
> I prefer to take my risk against 1 person with face mask and social distance than to go to grocery store myself.


Okay mr miyagi what's his next lesson? Do your vacuuming lol


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## jobo (May 23, 2020)

Headhunter said:


> Okay mr miyagi what's his next lesson? Do your vacuuming lol


 , now just check if this rat poison is safe to eat


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## _Simon_ (May 23, 2020)

jobo said:


> whats clear to me is the 2 m rule they have tried to enforce in the UK is completely inadequate, when your going to stand 2 m from other people for an hour or more to get into the shop and are then going to interact with the check out staff at considerably less than 2 m, and received money that hasn't been sterilised



The measures implemented are meant to reduce likelihoods, there aren't any absolutes with them, nor guarantees being made. And yeah it's quite hard to apply the distance to everything... but the less distance the less chance of anything being transmitted. At alot of our supermarkets they've actually put a shield between check out staff and customer. But yeah, like I said it's just a game of reducing likelihoods of transmission.

But whether people actually comply is a whooole other issue [emoji14]


----------



## Gerry Seymour (May 23, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> It is certainly reduced but six feet is by no means a magic number beyond which you are suddenly safe.  So wearing a mask is still critical, and I am shocked every time I go to Target at how many people are not wearing masks, both employees and customers.  If people are not wearing a mask, droplets can become airborn and travel much farther than six feet, and if people are “loud talkers” or are singing or coughing or sneezing, it can travel much farther than that.
> 
> So yeah, reducing the capacity by 50% helps, but things like wearing masks is still critical and it all remains far from a guarantee.


Yeah, and it amazes me when I hear someone (and I've heard folks saying this out loud at stores I've been in) that all the people in masks are just scared of nothing. They don't realize that my mask does almost nothing to protect me. I wear it because when delivering I come in contact with at least a dozen people every day. I'm more likely to be a carrier than the average person in the store. My mask is in case I'm infected, so I don't spread it.


----------



## Gerry Seymour (May 23, 2020)

jobo said:


> that has certain vagueness in it , how many people are usually in the store, what the density of those people and how much room do the other people give you ?
> 
> and by how much is your risk reduced /
> 
> ...


I can't answer, but epidemiologists can. They have models that can demonstrate pretty clearly how much the risk of transmission is reduced. 2m (essentially the same as the US 6-foot rule) is a minimum, and not nearly sufficient when people are singing, talking loudly, or breathing hard. It's meant to reduce the risk of transmission in brief interactions.

The money is a bit of a concern, though the CDC in the US has recently revised their guidance, stating that transmission on surfaces is less risk than previously thought, so that money is less of a problem than I'd thought (I'd stopped using cash for that reason).

Yeah, folks going to places where they can't distance is problematic. In the US, some of the bigger stores are worse - the Walmarts around here look like the final shopping days before Chrismas, with packed parking lots. I won't go near them.


----------



## jobo (May 23, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> I can't answer, but epidemiologists can. They have models that can demonstrate pretty clearly how much the risk of transmission is reduced. 2m (essentially the same as the US 6-foot rule) is a minimum, and not nearly sufficient when people are singing, talking loudly, or breathing hard. It's meant to reduce the risk of transmission in brief interactions.
> 
> The money is a bit of a concern, though the CDC in the US has recently revised their guidance, stating that transmission on surfaces is less risk than previously thought, so that money is less of a problem than I'd thought (I'd stopped using cash for that reason).
> 
> Yeah, folks going to places where they can't distance is problematic. In the US, some of the bigger stores are worse - the Walmarts around here look like the final shopping days before Chrismas, with packed parking lots. I won't go near them.


 well no they cant, not out side of a strictly theoretical sence, what more of a risk, passing very briefly  at  a meter or standing their for an hour and a half  adjacent to an infected person at two meters,, personally id rather just hold my breath whilst im passing for 3 seconds, than have them firing droplets at me for 90 mins

the length of exposure MUST be a major factor in how likely you are to become infected , which has just been totally ignored in the UK, in fact the measures ensure that long exposures are a regular and constant issue

6 foot is not a min um., its NOT a safe distance for breath borne aerosols, just with normal breathing, never mind singing, that will hang in the air anyway, so when the queue moves up, your just walking into someone else exhaust products or if there a breeze you will get them 30 foot-away or more


and as i explained, the law of unintended consequences apply, by forcing people into more confined spaces, when they want to buy some gravy and havent got hours to spare

there also the economic divided, people with out cars cant do a weeks shopping in one go,, they cant use public transport to get to supper markets so local shopping in confined spaces is their only recourse. there been some comment here that ethnic minorities are more adversely effected, at least part of that will be the economic divided that exists. or it probably truer that poor people are worse effected. i walk two miles home ( after jogging the two miles there) three times a week with my shopping in a very heavy rucksack, not every one can do that

so, practicality is being used rather than science and its also having the opposite effect that the intent

SO,, its far from certain the social distancing controls are having any possessive effect on the death toll


----------



## Flying Crane (May 23, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> I can't answer, but epidemiologists can. They have models that can demonstrate pretty clearly how much the risk of transmission is reduced. 2m (essentially the same as the US 6-foot rule) is a minimum, and not nearly sufficient when people are singing, talking loudly, or breathing hard. It's meant to reduce the risk of transmission in brief interactions.
> 
> The money is a bit of a concern, though the CDC in the US has recently revised their guidance, stating that transmission on surfaces is less risk than previously thought, so that money is less of a problem than I'd thought (I'd stopped using cash for that reason).
> 
> Yeah, folks going to places where they can't distance is problematic. In the US, some of the bigger stores are worse - the Walmarts around here look like the final shopping days before Chrismas, with packed parking lots. I won't go near them.


It is insane, what we are seeing in some parts of the US.  Some people are being downright confrontational and belligerent about it, getting in peoples faces and invading their space, deliberately trying to spark an incident.  

Those kinds of assholes deserve a state-sanctioned execution.


----------



## Gerry Seymour (May 23, 2020)

jobo said:


> well no they cant, not out side of a strictly theoretical sence, what more of a risk, passing very briefly  at  a meter or standing their for an hour and a half  adjacent to an infected person at two meters,, personally id rather just hold my breath whilst im passing for 3 seconds, than have them firing droplets at me for 90 mins
> 
> the length of exposure MUST be a major factor in how likely you are to become infected , which has just been totally ignored in the UK, in fact the measures ensure that long exposures are a regular and constant issue


You think their models don't have the ability to account for time of exposure? Dude.



> 6 foot is not a min um., its NOT a safe distance for breath borne aerosols, just with normal breathing, never mind singing, that will hang in the air anyway, so when the queue moves up, your just walking into someone else exhaust products or if there a breeze you will get them 30 foot-away or more


You seem to be confusing "minimum" with "minimum safe". You are correct that aerosols can pass far beyond that point (what I've seen suggests 20 feet isn't unusual). Droplets drop off dramatically at 3 feet, and are (except from sneezes, apparently) barely signficant at 6 feet.



> and as i explained, the law of unintended consequences apply, by forcing people into more confined spaces, when they want to buy some gravy and havent got hours to spare
> 
> there also the economic divided, people with out cars cant do a weeks shopping in one go,, they cant use public transport to get to supper markets so local shopping in confined spaces is their only recourse. there been some comment here that ethnic minorities are more adversely effected, at least part of that will be the economic divided that exists. or it probably truer that poor people are worse effected. i walk two miles home ( after jogging the two miles there) three times a week with my shopping in a very heavy rucksack, not every one can do that
> 
> ...


You seem to confuse science with some absolute thing. Yes, there are unintended consequences. Evidence from before stay-at-home orders suggests that the small areas of brief crowding you refer to are far less of a problem than large, crowded stores and bars were earlier. Something doesn't have to work absolutely to be effective.


----------



## Gerry Seymour (May 23, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> It is insane, what we are seeing in some parts of the US.  Some people are being downright confrontational and belligerent about it, getting in peoples faces and invading their space, deliberately trying to spark an incident.
> 
> Those kinds of assholes deserve a state-sanctioned execution.


There has been at least one murder by someone who didn't like being told they had to wear a mask or leave.

I really don't get why folks see this as a freedom issue. It's a pretty simple, easy act to wear a mask to protect others. I have the option not to in most places, and choose to anyway.


----------



## jobo (May 23, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> You think their models don't have the ability to account for time of exposure? Dude.
> 
> 
> You seem to be confusing "minimum" with "minimum safe". You are correct that aerosols can pass far beyond that point (what I've seen suggests 20 feet isn't unusual). Droplets drop off dramatically at 3 feet, and are (except from sneezes, apparently) barely signficant at 6 feet.
> ...


you keep telling me what these models contain as if youve seen them

they can of course account for time of exposure, my point is they either didnt or the UK government has ignored them, other wise no one could buy food. if clothing shops are to dangerous to be open, then so are food shops, that of course would lead to starvation and or riots, which would be more of a problem than the disease, that however doesnt make it anywhere near safe, just pragmatic



droplets in breath are aerosols, its the very definition of an aerosol, the larger ones may drop off quickly but the smaller one carrying the virus will quite happy float around for some time, unless you claiming the virus is to heavy to float ?


----------



## Gerry Seymour (May 23, 2020)

jobo said:


> you keep telling me what these models contain as if youve seen them
> 
> they can of course account for time of exposure, my point is they either didnt or the UK government has ignored them, other wise no one could buy food. if clothing shops are to dangerous to be open, then so are food shops, that of course would lead to starvation and or riots, which would be more of a problem than the disease, that however doesnt make it anywhere near safe, just pragmatic


Yes, there is some pragmatism applied. That doesn't preclude the use of scientific information, as well. You're probably aware that there's science showing that starvation is bad for people.





> droplets in breath are aerosols, its the very definition of an aerosol, the larger ones may drop off quickly but the smaller one carrying the virus will quite happy float around for some time, unless you claiming the virus is to heavy to float ?


There's a specific distinction made between droplets (which fall from the air rather quickly) and aeorsolized particles (which float on the air for a much longer time). That distinction is made by scientists discussing the issue, so take it up with them.


----------



## Flying Crane (May 23, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> There has been at least one murder by someone who didn't like being told they had to wear a mask or leave.
> 
> I really don't get why folks see this as a freedom issue. It's a pretty simple, easy act to wear a mask to protect others. I have the option not to in most places, and choose to anyway.


Yeah.  This is not difficult to understand.  Masks help slow and prevent the spread of the virus.  End of story.  This is critical for the economy to open, which is what people seem to be hell-bent on making happen, for better or for worse.  

People are deliberately turning it into a political issue.  Stupidity, plain and simple.


----------



## jobo (May 23, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> Yes, there is some pragmatism applied. That doesn't preclude the use of scientific information, as well. You're probably aware that there's science showing that starvation is bad for people.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


 your the one claiming to be in the know, so im taking it up with you, liquid, otherwise know as drop lets in air is an aerosol ( its a liquid or a PARTICLE), it stays in suspension for a considerable amount of time, it is of course heavier than air, but air currents will carry it upwards or sideways for a considerable distance, great big globs of flem will fall rather soon in time, but not in three feet if its coughed or sneezed at you, 30 feet more like, i have a vague memory of being told at school sneezes travel at 100 mph, ive never bother to google but wouldn't be surprised if it got in to three figures, so it will travel that 30 foot rather quickly

if scientist are telling you its safe they are lieing to you, they seem to have spent a lot of time misleading people over this issue in general


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## Kung Fu Wang (May 23, 2020)

jobo said:


> you appear to be exploiting your student to increase their risk of infection in return for lessons, if its safe for him to do your shopping its equally safe for you to do it yourself


I don't ask my student to make a special shopping trip for me. Every time my student go to grocery store, he asks me what do I need.

I tried to order grocery delivering but most of the time they only delivered 1/2 of the order. My student just help me to pick up the 1/2 missing items.


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## jobo (May 24, 2020)

jobo said:


> your the one claiming to be in the know, so im taking it up with you, liquid, otherwise know as drop lets in air is an aerosol ( its a liquid or a PARTICLE), it stays in suspension for a considerable amount of time, it is of course heavier than air, but air currents will carry it upwards or sideways for a considerable distance, great big globs of flem will fall rather soon in time, but not in three feet if its coughed or sneezed at you, 30 feet more like, i have a vague memory of being told at school sneezes travel at 100 mph, ive never bother to google but wouldn't be surprised if it got in to three figures, so it will travel that 30 foot rather quickly
> 
> if scientist are telling you its safe they are lieing to you, they seem to have spent a lot of time misleading people over this issue in general


 the latest ''scare'' in the UK is that petrol pumps are acting as a vector for infection, which seems reasonable, though you think they might have mentioned it a couple of months ago.

which then goes on to make you think about supermarket trolleys and shop door handles and tins of beans and money etc


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## jobo (May 24, 2020)

Kung Fu Wang said:


> I don't ask my student to make a special shopping trip for me. Every time my student go to grocery store, he asks me what do I need.
> 
> I tried to order grocery delivering but most of the time they only delivered 1/2 of the order. My student just help me to pick up the 1/2 missing items.


see post above about possible contamination of food stuffs


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## jobo (May 24, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> There has been at least one murder by someone who didn't like being told they had to wear a mask or leave.
> 
> I really don't get why folks see this as a freedom issue. It's a pretty simple, easy act to wear a mask to protect others. I have the option not to in most places, and choose to anyway.


do face masks actual work, its a genuine question, its seems logical they might, but is it an actual fact.

here an article in the new scientist that throws doubt at that conclusion.

in short it seems ''genuine'' medical masks that are disposed of after each use, are better than the cloth ones lots of people are wearing, but the evidence for either is patchy  rather dubious and far from conclusive. at which point they can give people a false sense of security and make matters worse

Do face masks work against the coronavirus and should you wear one?


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## Gerry Seymour (May 24, 2020)

jobo said:


> the latest ''scare'' in the UK is that petrol pumps are acting as a vector for infection, which seems reasonable, though you think they might have mentioned it a couple of months ago.
> 
> which then goes on to make you think about supermarket trolleys and shop door handles and tins of beans and money etc


I'd be interested in finding out if that's true. It's in direct conflict with the recent findings by the US CDC, who said hard surfaces aren't a significant risk for transmission.


----------



## Gerry Seymour (May 24, 2020)

jobo said:


> do face masks actual work, its a genuine question, its seems logical they might, but is it an actual fact.
> 
> here an article in the new scientist that throws doubt at that conclusion.
> 
> ...


I read that (and similar articles) back when that came out. It's discussing protection from incoming transmission, and ther's pretty good evidence they don't work well for that - including the medical-grade stuff, when worn by folks not used to wearing a mask (they tend to touch the mask a lot).

The recommendation to wear a mask is based on results looking at outward transmission. If I am infected and cough, talk loud, etc. near you, my mask dramatically reduces what I put in the air for you to breathe in. The better the mask, the smaller the stuff it blocks. Oddly, the N95 (medical-grade) masks with valves are counter-productive for this - they sem to transmit further because of how the air flows out the valve.


----------



## Flying Crane (May 24, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> I'd be interested in finding out if that's true. It's in direct conflict with the recent findings by the US CDC, who said hard surfaces aren't a significant risk for transmission.


I would be very careful with this issue.  In my opinion, I suspect people are being less clear with the language than they ought to be, and that has the risk of people erroneously believing that they don’t need to takes steps to guard against transmission from surfaces.  I believe that surface transmission _is_ an issue, just not as likely as once thought.  But that does not mean that one shouldn’t take reasonable steps to safeguard against it.

A little common sense is in order.  Let’s take a scenario where an infectious individual sneezes and droplets fall on the countertop, and is not cleaned or disinfected.  Five minutes later someone else walks by, pauses for a moment and puts his hand on the countertop while checking his cell phone, scratches the corner of his lip or rubs his nose with the same hand he touched the countertop with while he continues to ponder his phone, and then moves on.  I’m gonna suggest that fellow is probably now infected.  There is nothing magical about a countertop that kills the virus and prevents infection.

There may be issues regarding how long the virus remains viable while sitting on the countertop, that may reduce the likelihood of transmission.  Perhaps it is not viable for a long time, but I don’t know.  Maybe it is viable for a half hour but not after three hours, or remains viable as long as the droplets remain wet, but not once it dries out, for example (pure speculation on my part, this is a hypothetical _not_ based on any facts that I am aware of). There are also issues around frequently touched items like doorknobs or elevator buttons, that may be a more likely vector of infection.

But my point is, I think people need to be clear that while infection from touching surfaces may be _less_ _likely_, it does not mean that it is not of concern.  The CDC guidelines _do_ _not_ say “transmission from hard surfaces is not possible, so don’t concern yourself with it.”


----------



## jobo (May 24, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> I'd be interested in finding out if that's true. It's in direct conflict with the recent findings by the US CDC, who said hard surfaces aren't a significant risk for transmission.


thats the problem you have to pick your expert and then ask if they have an agenda other than simple facts

here an extract, on hard surfaces

How long can coronavirus survive outside of the body?
*How long can the new coronavirus survive in droplets and on surfaces?*
A recent study has explored how long SARS-CoV-2 remains infectious outside the human body, either in droplets or on contaminated surfaces.[1] Two key parameters were measured: the half-life of the virus, which is the time taken for 50% of the viruses to be no longer infectious, and the maximum time at which viable viruses could be recovered. Evidence collected for SARS-CoV-2 showed that viruses in droplet aerosols (a fine mist) had a half-life of just over an hour but some could survive for three hours or more. Infectious virus could be detected on copper surfaces for up to four hours, on cardboard for up to 24 hours, and on plastic and stainless steel for at least 72 hours. These observations of virus persistence underline the value of regular disinfection of surfaces and attention to hand hygiene in controlling the spread of infection. A limitation of these studies is that they have been performed under a single set of conditions (indoors with constant temperature and humidity), and with a single initial dose of virus. It is likely that virus persistence will vary in different indoor and outdoor environments, and the length of time a surface remains contaminated will depend on the initial dose of virus to which it is exposed.

that seems far from saying hard surfaces are not a problem and seem particularly so on stainless steel and plastic, which are what petrol pumps and supermarket trolleys are made of





ive just read another from harvard no less, saying they have NO IDEA how much social distancing reduces risk ( so much for all this detailed modelling) and disagreeing with you over masks

Coronavirus Resource Center - Harvard Health


----------



## jobo (May 24, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> I would be very careful with this issue.  In my opinion, I suspect people are being less clear with the language than they ought to be, and that has the risk of people erroneously believing that they don’t need to takes steps to guard against transmission from surfaces.  I believe that surface transmission _is_ an issue, just not as likely as once thought.  But that does not mean that one shouldn’t take reasonable steps to safeguard against it.
> 
> A little common sense is in order.  Let’s take a scenario where an infectious individual sneezes and droplets fall on the countertop, and is not cleaned or disinfected.  Five minutes later someone else walks by, pauses for a moment and puts his hand on the countertop while checking his cell phone, scratches the corner of his lip or rubs his nose with the same hand he touched the countertop with while he continues to ponder his phone, and then moves on.  I’m gonna suggest that fellow is probably now infected.  There is nothing magical about a countertop that kills the virus and prevents infection.
> 
> ...


72 hours seems a fair guess for that infected counter top


----------



## Gerry Seymour (May 24, 2020)

jobo said:


> thats the problem you have to pick your expert and then ask if they have an agenda other than simple facts
> 
> here an extract, on hard surfaces
> 
> ...


The question has to also include how likely viable virus is to transfer from that hard surface. I haven't seen the CDC's data, so I'm not certain what changed their minds. What I have heard them say is that it's based on transmissability, rather than virus persistance. The two are related, but not always as directly as we might expect. Since this virus doesn't seem to transfer via mucus membrane, that may explain the lower transmissability.


----------



## Flying Crane (May 24, 2020)

> . Since this virus _doesn't seem to transfer via mucus membrane_, that may explain the lower transmissability.


What do you mean by this statement?


----------



## jobo (May 24, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> What do you mean by this statement?


, is that a rhetorical, what does this mean or a genuine enquiry

what it means is membranes are semi permeable and virus can and do enter the body that way, herpes for instance, you can get herpes of the eye for instance but you do need to be a bit careless.

what i dont know is if the virus can enter by the membrane. Gerry says not, but he has been wrong several times on this thread,, but it seems of little relivance as a number of these membranes are right in the breathing tract, if you insist on picking you nose for instance it seems odds onto infect yourself


----------



## Steve (May 24, 2020)

Monkey Turned Wolf said:


> I highly doubt skribs' perspective is based on money. I've not got that sense from his and his conversations here, particularly since there have been parts in time where I believe he mentioned working for free to help out his dojo. I think it's more a result of living location-if you live somewhere where it's not that common *YET*, you're not going to be as concerned about it. I thought most of it was propaganda myself until it hit NY. The issue is that lack of concern is what causes it to get worse.


Hey, reading through this thread.  Just mentioning skribs location is listed as Lakewood washtingont. Which is very near Ground zero for the American pandemic.  Washington was pretty cautious early, in contrast to new York, which seems to have made a huge difference.


----------



## Gerry Seymour (May 24, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> What do you mean by this statement?


The virus appears to infect the respiratory system directly, rather than via mucus membranes. From what I understand, that means getting it in your mouth (for instance) isn't much of a problem. I think it also means the virus isn't absorbed within the nasal membrane. So when you touch your face with the virus on your hand, the risk is that you'll subsequently inhale that virus. That's multiple points of transfer along the way, which reduces the chance of it reaching the respiratory system rather dramatically. Droplets and aerosolized particles in the air can be inhaled directly, so are much more problematic.


----------



## Flying Crane (May 24, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> The virus appears to infect the respiratory system directly, rather than via mucus membranes. From what I understand, that means getting it in your mouth (for instance) isn't much of a problem. I think it also means the virus isn't absorbed within the nasal membrane. So when you touch your face with the virus on your hand, the risk is that you'll subsequently inhale that virus. That's multiple points of transfer along the way, which reduces the chance of it reaching the respiratory system rather dramatically. Droplets and aerosolized particles in the air can be inhaled directly, so are much more problematic.


I had not been aware of that distinction. I am aware however that it is believed to be contagious through the eyes.

If what you say is true, then it seems like Covid would be less contagious than viruses such as the flu, but the opposite seems to be true by a significant amount.  Do you have any information about that?


----------



## Monkey Turned Wolf (May 24, 2020)

Steve said:


> Hey, reading through this thread.  Just mentioning skribs location is listed as Lakewood washtingont. Which is very near Ground zero for the American pandemic.  Washington was pretty cautious early, in contrast to new York, which seems to have made a huge difference.


That cautiousness absolutely helped, which is why I'm warning people about being cautious in their areas where it's not big yet. But even in the places that already had it-it can return. I've heard (haven't looked enough into it as I don't have the energy) that in a lot of areas in europe it's coming back now that they have laxed their regulations about it. If that's true then washington, NY, and basically anywhere else still needs to be vigilant and slow with it.


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## Gerry Seymour (May 25, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> I had not been aware of that distinction. I am aware however that it is believed to be contagious through the eyes.
> 
> If what you say is true, then it seems like Covid would be less contagious than viruses such as the flu, but the opposite seems to be true by a significant amount.  Do you have any information about that?


I don’t understand all of the difference, but part of it is a lack of any general “herd immunity”. Most folks have some antibodies for something similar to whatever flu strains they run into, and that seems to make it harder to catch (I think it makes it require a higher viral load, on average, but that might be a misunderstanding on my part).

it may also be that this virus is just that much better at infecting once it reaches a target cell. It’s hard to find that kind of detail in quick searches, because there’s simply so much high-level stuff showing up in the algorithms.


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## jobo (May 25, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> I had not been aware of that distinction. I am aware however that it is believed to be contagious through the eyes.
> 
> If what you say is true, then it seems like Covid would be less contagious than viruses such as the flu, but the opposite seems to be true by a significant amount.  Do you have any information about that?


, i dont think you can get it through the eyes, though theres a large emphasis on THINK, lets just say that there is no clinical evidence that this is so. there is suspicion that conjunctivitis may be a symptom, far from confirmed and that it could be spread by tears, even less confirmation. though largely irrelevant i would have thought, unless the shopping bill was so much the person before you burst into tears

its not greatly more infectious than most virus  and significant ly less infectious than some, like measles for instance , it had a r rate of circa 2 where measles has one of 14

as to flu ? ,,,, it depends which flu and which year, the 1918 pandemic varied across the world, but was also r 2 in the uk it was in excess of 5 in some places

most flu are between 1 and 2, it has to be above one to be an out break at all

so no not greatly more infectious than flu, possible more deadly than most,, ,  but then again, not by that much in most of the population, as we may or may not find out if they ever release the details of the mortality rate


----------



## Flying Crane (May 25, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> I don’t understand all of the difference, but part of it is a lack of any general “herd immunity”. Most folks have some antibodies for something similar to whatever flu strains they run into, and that seems to make it harder to catch (I think it makes it require a higher viral load, on average, but that might be a misunderstanding on my part).
> 
> it may also be that this virus is just that much better at infecting once it reaches a target cell. It’s hard to find that kind of detail in quick searches, because there’s simply so much high-level stuff showing up in the algorithms.


Yeah.  And as has been noted, we are still learning about this virus.  Just when we think weve got a grip on some aspect of it, we discover we are wrong and it’s worse than we thought.

Which is why I think it’s very important to keep up the caution when some potential good news comes along.  ‘Cause it may not be true, or not true for everyone.


----------



## Gerry Seymour (May 25, 2020)

jobo said:


> , i dont think you can get it through the eyes, though theres a large emphasis on THINK, lets just say that there is no clinical evidence that this is so. there is suspicion that conjunctivitis may be a symptom, far from confirmed and that it could be spread by tears, even less confirmation. though largely irrelevant i would have thought, unless the shopping bill was so much the person before you burst into tears
> 
> its not greatly more infectious than most virus  and significant ly less infectious than some, like measles for instance , it had a r rate of circa 2 where measles has one of 14
> 
> ...


There’s evidence the virus lives well and transfers to/from the eyes well, but I haven’t seen anything definitive showing it can infect directly via the eyes. Given that it doesn’t infect via mucus membranes, I suspect the risk with the eyes is more that a person will rub their eyes then nose or some such.


----------



## _Simon_ (May 26, 2020)

Things have progressed here in terms of easing of restrictions.. currently have to keep the 1.5 metre distance still, but allowed to have 5 visitors at home. 1st of June we can have 20 people over, and 22nd June alot of indoor sports centers are reopening, cafes allowed 20 patrons etc.

Already seen heaps of messages about dojos planning to reopen then, all at once. Gotta say, even though it's great, still makes me uneasy... still feels too soon..


----------



## jobo (May 26, 2020)

_Simon_ said:


> Things have progressed here in terms of easing of restrictions.. currently have to keep the 1.5 metre distance still, but allowed to have 5 visitors at home. 1st of June we can have 20 people over, and 22nd June alot of indoor sports centers are reopening, cafes allowed 20 patrons etc.
> 
> Already seen heaps of messages about dojos planning to reopen then, all at once. Gotta say, even though it's great, still makes me uneasy... still feels too soon..


personal responsibility, is what was missing from most of this, if you think its to early, keep out of cafes, dojo and house parties


----------



## _Simon_ (May 26, 2020)

jobo said:


> personal responsibility, is what was missing from most of this, if you think its to early, keep out of cafes, dojo and house parties


Lol.. well actually, you assumed I wouldn't be . I'll be keeping out unless it's a safe environment, which pretty much every time I've been out, not many at all were social distancing. Also, I care about the health of wellbeing of everyone, so just concerned on that front.


----------



## jobo (May 26, 2020)

_Simon_ said:


> Lol.. well actually, you assumed I wouldn't be . I'll be keeping out unless it's a safe environment, which pretty much every time I've been out, not many at all were social distancing. Also, I care about the health of wellbeing of everyone, so just concerned on that front.


but they have personal responsibility as well, wishing them well is fine, but i dont spend a great deal of time worrying about people who decided to drive themselves and their families over railway crossing with out looking

i mean a lot of this is rather dependent on if you believed the measures they are scaling down were actually effective or not, never mind suspecting as i do, that some of them were very much counter productive, either specifically for the virus or just for the state of peoples well being in general


----------



## _Simon_ (May 26, 2020)

jobo said:


> but they have personal responsibility as well, wishing them well is fine, but i dont spend a great deal of time worrying about people who decided to drive themselves and their families over railway crossing with out looking
> 
> i mean a lot of this is rather dependent on if you believed the measures they are scaling down were actually effective or not, never mind suspecting as i do, that some of them were very much counter productive, either specifically for the virus or just for the state of peoples well being in general



Oh of course, yep, I'm not actually worrying heavily in terms of losing sleep over it, no one can control anyone else. Just heard of situations in which restrictions were eased a bit, it spread immensely, and they had to go into harder lockdowns soon after. Personal responsibility is key here, of course, and that can only be encouraged rather than guaranteed.

The measures seemed to prove effective and cases (known cases of course), along with very widespread testing done are showing that cases are declining. Where we are anyway, but who knows anything really at this stage.


----------



## jobo (May 26, 2020)

_Simon_ said:


> Oh of course, yep, I'm not actually worrying heavily in terms of losing sleep over it, no one can control anyone else. Just heard of situations in which restrictions were eased a bit, it spread immensely, and they had to go into harder lockdowns soon after. Personal responsibility is key here, of course, and that can only be encouraged rather than guaranteed.
> 
> The measures seemed to prove effective and cases (known cases of course), along with very widespread testing done are showing that cases are declining. Where we are anyway, but who knows anything really at this stage.


 which situations have you heard were scaling back a BIT lead to an IMMINENCE increase and then a harder lock down ?


----------



## Gerry Seymour (May 26, 2020)

jobo said:


> personal responsibility, is what was missing from most of this, if you think its to early, keep out of cafes, dojo and house parties


Problem is, with an infectious disease everyone's actions have a high probability of affecting others. So folks avoiding those places still end up eventually interacting with someone who doesn't.


----------



## _Simon_ (May 26, 2020)

jobo said:


> which situations have you heard were scaling back a BIT lead to an IMMINENCE increase and then a harder lock down ?


Here's just a snippet, about businesses that had to close up again, and not so much harder lockdowns but back into lockdown I think, my bad. And of course that's the thing, of course there will be an increase in outbreaks upon easing of restrictions, it's unavoidable

WHO warns that coronavirus cases have jumped in countries that eased lockdowns

Millions back in lockdown in China as fears grow over second coronavirus wave


----------



## jobo (May 26, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> Problem is, with an infectious disease everyone's actions have a high probability of affecting others. So folks avoiding those places still end up eventually interacting with someone who doesn't.


 well no, not largely they dont only people ( and possibly intermediately family) who consent to run the risk themselves. a lot less danger to others than say a drunk driver


----------



## jobo (May 26, 2020)

_Simon_ said:


> Here's just a snippet, about businesses that had to close up again, and not so much harder lockdowns but back into lockdown I think, my bad. And of course that's the thing, of course there will be an increase in outbreaks upon easing of restrictions, it's unavoidable
> 
> WHO warns that coronavirus cases have jumped in countries that eased lockdowns
> 
> Millions back in lockdown in China as fears grow over second coronavirus wave


that appears to be just china, who are operating on completely different criteria than every one else ,coupled with sensational reporting, the lock down effects 10 million not 100 million and was triggered by the mere existence of 13 cases, hardly a ''wave''

you can only come to the conclusion that easy lock down will directly result in more cases, if your convinced that any particular measure was actually effective,, that is not the case for the uk, where many of the measures had no logic at all and some certainly increased the spread either directly or indirectly


----------



## _Simon_ (May 26, 2020)

jobo said:


> that appears to be just china, who are operating on completely different criteria than every one else ,coupled with sensational reporting, the lock down effects 10 million not 100 million and was triggered by the mere existence of 13 cases, hardly a ''wave''



... am just sayin. Not claiming every single place is exactly 100% the same. Just sayin, it's happened, and can happen.


----------



## jobo (May 26, 2020)

_Simon_ said:


> ... am just sayin. Not claiming every single place is exactly 100% the same. Just sayin, it's happened, and can happen.


 well what happened, china has, because it can complexly over reacted to a very very small number of cases, where is the thing you said that a easing of restrictions has lead to a large number of cases ?


----------



## _Simon_ (May 26, 2020)

jobo said:


> well what happened, china has, because it can complexly over reacted to a very very small number of cases, where is the thing you said that a easing of restrictions has lead to a large number of cases ?


I was thinking more the Spanish flu second wave, THAT sorta thing


----------



## dvcochran (May 26, 2020)

_Simon_ said:


> Oh of course, yep, I'm not actually worrying heavily in terms of losing sleep over it, no one can control anyone else. Just heard of situations in which restrictions were eased a bit, it spread immensely, and they had to go into harder lockdowns soon after. Personal responsibility is key here, of course, and that can only be encouraged rather than guaranteed.
> 
> The measures seemed to prove effective and cases (known cases of course), along with very widespread testing done are showing that cases are declining. Where we are anyway, but who knows anything really at this stage.


 @_Simon_  , temperature is thought to deter the virus here in the states. With the generally higher temperatures where you live does that seem to track? The southern U.S. states have certainly had it easier here so far.

I was chatting with a farmer friend last week and he said they were getting up square bale hay in 44° C (112° F) heat. All I could say was I sure hope it was a dry heat.


----------



## _Simon_ (May 26, 2020)

dvcochran said:


> @_Simon_  , temperature is thought to deter the virus here in the states. With the generally higher temperatures where you live does that seem to track? The southern U.S. states have certainly had it easier here so far.
> 
> I was chatting with a farmer friend last week and he said they were getting up square bale hay in 44° C (112° F) heat. All I could say was I sure hope it was a dry heat.



Oh wow haha. I have heard that about the higher temps...

Our state in particular (which is known for four seasons in a day hehe), has had it pretty bad compared to others. But we're coming up to winter next week, and even so it has been pretty cold the last couple of months. The hot weather disappeared rather rapidly!

I believe Northern Australia (much warmer) has had less cases, so it may be a thing for sure!


----------



## jobo (May 26, 2020)

_Simon_ said:


> I was thinking more the Spanish flu second wave, THAT sorta thing


 the spanish flue was odd very very odd, partly on its own but more so because of the first world war.

the much vaunted second wave was deadly, because the normal rules of natural selection were reversed, that is virus mutate to become less deadly as a general rule of thumb, however the nature of trench war fare meant the reverse occurred and the mild mutations died out allowing the more virulent strains to run wild...

then,, especially they brought millions of people back into the country all at once, a very large number of which had this virulent strain


----------



## Flying Crane (May 26, 2020)

_Simon_ said:


> Things have progressed here in terms of easing of restrictions.. currently have to keep the 1.5 metre distance still, but allowed to have 5 visitors at home. 1st of June we can have 20 people over, and 22nd June alot of indoor sports centers are reopening, cafes allowed 20 patrons etc.
> 
> Already seen heaps of messages about dojos planning to reopen then, all at once. Gotta say, even though it's great, still makes me uneasy... still feels too soon..


It should make you uneasy, and it is too soon.

The impression I am getting is that a lot of people are just throwing their brains in the trash and ignoring all safety steps.  The government gives permission to start reopening and people want to just immediately go back to how it was in the past.  They immediately discard any distancing and stop wearing masks in public and in shopping areas.  This is pure stupidity.

If things are to open then it needs to be coupled with distancing and PPE.  This virus is still very much here and now.  It has not gone away.  I wonder sometimes if these fools believe the government just waved a magic wand and caused it to disappear.

Here in the good old USA the rates of infections in many areas are actually still increasing.  And yet we are hell-bent on reopening.  I guess we’ve all just gotten bored with the whole thing and decided let’s just move on and let it “sort itself out” or something.

I keep saying: everyone should make a list and write down the names of the people who are close to them, who they are willing to see die.  Because if we do it this way then eventually it’s going to become that personal to every one of us.  So we may as well recognize it now so we don’t pretend later that we are surprised.

So who are we all willing to lose?  A spouse?  A child?  A sibling? A niece or nephew or parent?  Several?  Write down their names.


----------



## jobo (May 26, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> It should make you uneasy, and it is too soon.
> 
> The impression I am getting is that a lot of people are just throwing their brains in the trash and ignoring all safety steps.  The government gives permission to start reopening and people want to just immediately go back to how it was in the past.  They immediately discard any distancing and stop wearing masks in public and in shopping areas.  This is pure stupidity.
> 
> ...


ive an elderly aunt i wouldn't be to sorry to see the back of, plus a few cousins which would be no great loss to myself or the world


----------



## CB Jones (May 26, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> It should make you uneasy, and it is too soon.
> 
> The impression I am getting is that a lot of people are just throwing their brains in the trash and ignoring all safety steps.  The government gives permission to start reopening and people want to just immediately go back to how it was in the past.  They immediately discard any distancing and stop wearing masks in public and in shopping areas.  This is pure stupidity.
> 
> ...


----------



## Flying Crane (May 26, 2020)

CB Jones said:


>


Keep your son safe.  I would hate to see his name end up on that list.


----------



## CB Jones (May 26, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> Keep your son safe.  I would hate to see his name end up on that list.



You make decisions for yourself....and we will make decisions for ourselves.....thank you.


----------



## Flying Crane (May 26, 2020)

CB Jones said:


> You make decisions for yourself....and we will make decisions for ourselves.....thank you.


As long as your decisions don’t put others in danger.  That is where your rights end.  That is well established in American law.

Keep your son safe.  I would hate to hear that his name ended up on the list.


----------



## CB Jones (May 26, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> As long as your decisions don’t put others in danger.  That is where your rights end.  That is well established in American law.
> 
> Keep your son safe.  I would hate to hear that his name ended up on the list.



Again you worry about flying crane...we are good.


----------



## Buka (May 26, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> It should make you uneasy, and it is too soon.
> 
> The impression I am getting is that a lot of people are just throwing their brains in the trash and ignoring all safety steps.  The government gives permission to start reopening and people want to just immediately go back to how it was in the past.  They immediately discard any distancing and stop wearing masks in public and in shopping areas.  This is pure stupidity.
> 
> ...



I'm willing to lose my sister-in-law. I do not mean that as a joke, for it isn't funny.

She's just evil.


----------



## Flying Crane (May 26, 2020)

Buka said:


> I'm willing to lose my sister-in-law. I do not mean that as a joke, for it isn't funny.
> 
> She's just evil.


I appreciate that you are willing to put it in writing.


----------



## Flying Crane (May 26, 2020)

CB Jones said:


> Again you worry about flying crane...we are good.


No, I think we all need to be worrying about more than just ourselves.  Because our actions in this go way way beyond ourselves.  Thoughtless or selfish actions in this Covid situation can not only sicken or kill our selves, but can very easily kill others around us.  Not just our families, but people we encounter briefly and then move on, people we don’t even know.

We ourselves might not even get noticeably sick, might not even know we have it.  And we can kill our spouse or our children or our parents or our neighbors or strangers we didn’t even know we passed it to.

So yeah, I worry about myself and my household but I also worry about you and Skribbs and Buka and Simon and everyone else of there.  Because we need to do this together.  The people who don’t want to be bothered with it can completely undermine the actions of those who do the right thing.  This is bigger than me or you.  We all need to be on board.


----------



## CB Jones (May 26, 2020)

Anyways....Class has been going good...its nice to get back to some normal things.


----------



## Buka (May 26, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> I appreciate that you are willing to put it in writing.



She has an angelic face, a beautiful soothing voice. And as she told me years ago, "With this face and the way I talk I can lie to any person, any cop, any judge and they will believe what I say. And I will say anything I want to get anything I want because I can."

She even had her own brother arrested because he pissed her off about something. She later dropped the charges, after he spent the night in jail. She so enjoyed doing that.

But I believe in Karma. God, I hope I'm right.


----------



## Headhunter (May 27, 2020)

CB Jones said:


> Again you worry about flying crane...we are good.


No....that doesn't work....I'm worried about headhunter....but CB Jones poor choices puts headhunter at risk...here's why.


CB drives his son to karate class. His son does sparring and picks up the virus from his sparring partner. Son comes home and infects CB. Headhunter and CB go to the same shop and end up walking past each other or being near each other (let's all be honest inside shops social distancing does not happen)

So then CB infects headhunter.

You see it's not just your own health at risk it's the health of countless other people you can infect.


----------



## Headhunter (May 27, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> As long as your decisions don’t put others in danger.  That is where your rights end.  That is well established in American law.
> 
> Keep your son safe.  I would hate to hear that his name ended up on the list.


His decisions are 100% putting people in danger. Right now going near him is a flip of a coin with the risk 50/50 chance....not odds I like to play with my health or my families


----------



## Headhunter (May 27, 2020)

CB Jones said:


> Again you worry about flying crane...we are good.


So basically this is you saying you only care about yourself and not other people?


----------



## dvcochran (May 27, 2020)

Headhunter said:


> His decisions are 100% putting people in danger. Right now going near him is a flip of a coin with the risk 50/50 chance....not odds I like to play with my health or my families


50/50 chance? That is outright absurd. I find it truly bizarre how we went through the avian flu pandemic in 2008 and didn't miss a beat. And it has never went away but you never hear about that. This thing is for real, sure but it has been the greatest spin in the history of man.


----------



## Headhunter (May 27, 2020)

dvcochran said:


> 50/50 chance? That is outright absurd. I find it truly bizarre how we went through the avian flu pandemic in 2008 and didn't miss a beat. And it has never went away but you never hear about that. This thing is for real, sure but it has been the greatest spin in the history of man.


Yeah yeah whatever you say


----------



## Monkey Turned Wolf (May 27, 2020)

Headhunter said:


> His decisions are 100% putting people in danger. Right now going near him is a flip of a coin with the risk 50/50 chance....not odds I like to play with my health or my families


I agree with the concept, but those numbers are way off. He's got a 2% chance to have it, and most of the time spreading it is over longer contact. So if someone were to figure out how to plug in the numbers, not knowing his status, it's probably less than a 1% chance that you'd get it by going near cb. Otherwise everyone would get covid after one trip to the grocery store.


----------



## jobo (May 27, 2020)

Headhunter said:


> His decisions are 100% putting people in danger. Right now going near him is a flip of a coin with the risk 50/50 chance....not odds I like to play with my health or my families


it really isnt 50 50, thats silly


----------



## jobo (May 27, 2020)

Monkey Turned Wolf said:


> I agree with the concept, but those numbers are way off. He's got a 2% chance to have it, and most of the time spreading it is over longer contact. So if someone were to figure out how to plug in the numbers, not knowing his status, it's probably less than a 1% chance that you'd get it by going near cb. Otherwise everyone would get covid after one trip to the grocery store.


why do you think its as high as 2%. thats 50 1


----------



## Monkey Turned Wolf (May 27, 2020)

jobo said:


> why do you think its as high as 2%. thats 50 1


I'm going just based on my area. What I've looked up (a week or two ago, see earlier in this thread), each town in my county seemed to be about 2% that had it.


----------



## CB Jones (May 27, 2020)

Headhunter said:


> So basically this is you saying you only care about yourself and not other people?



No its saying....that we weigh the risk and make a decision to go to class....if you don't want to take the risk then you make the decision not to go.  I am not bound by your decision.

You choose your level of isolation and I will choose mine.

Everyone's situation is different and their decision is their decision.


----------



## Flying Crane (May 27, 2020)

CB Jones said:


> No its saying....that we weigh the risk and make a decision to go to class....if you don't want to take the risk then you make the decision not to go.  I am not bound by your decision.
> 
> You choose your level of isolation and I will choose mine.
> 
> Everyone's situation is different and their decision is their decision.


Until your actions endanger other people.  This is well established in American law.  

This is why we don’t let people drive intoxicated.  The risk extends to those around you.  It isn’t just you being cavalier with your own safety.


----------



## CB Jones (May 27, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> Until your actions endanger other people.  This is well established in American law.
> 
> This is why we don’t let people drive intoxicated.  The risk extends to those around you.  It isn’t just you being cavalier with your own safety.



Yes because going to karate class is like drunk driving.....good grief.


----------



## Flying Crane (May 27, 2020)

CB Jones said:


> Yes because going to karate class is like drunk driving.....good grief.


Exposing yourself and your son and the rest of your family to folks who could have a contagious and potentially fatal virus is, when it is known that the virus is rampant and uncontrolled in many parts of the nation.

Look, if you want to walk off into the forest and play Russian Roulette all by yourself, then go ahead I won’t stop you.  But when you try to drag others with you to play, including a minor, then at least I’m gonna speak up and say something.


----------



## Headhunter (May 28, 2020)

CB Jones said:


> No its saying....that we weigh the risk and make a decision to go to class....if you don't want to take the risk then you make the decision not to go.  I am not bound by your decision.
> 
> You choose your level of isolation and I will choose mine.
> 
> Everyone's situation is different and their decision is their decision.


Again wrong. Me having to go to the shop to get food is a lot more essential than you driving your kid to karate class. It really doesn't matter if I don't go because if you catch it then go around in public then you're passing it around to people....why're you struggling to understand this?


----------



## Headhunter (May 28, 2020)

CB Jones said:


> Yes because going to karate class is like drunk driving.....good grief.


Right now it is just as risky.....I know you enjoy taking your kid to karate and telling everyone all about it but there's a reason clubs closed down in the first place and the situation now is no better than it was then.


----------



## Monkey Turned Wolf (May 28, 2020)

CB Jones said:


> Yes because going to karate class is like drunk driving.....good grief.


It actually is similar. Approximately 10k people per year are killed as a result of drunk drivers in the US. Most people who drive while drunk do not kill anyone or even get into an accident or get caught doing so. And yet something like 20% of people know someone who died due to drunk driving. 

In comparison, 102K people died from COVID-19 in the US. Since it's been here for less than half a year, compare that to probably 4k drunk drivers in the same amount of time. Most people who go out are not spreading COVID, because they don't have it. But, similarly to drunk driving, when enough people do so, they are spreading it and killing others without any malicious intent whatsoever (all the drunk drivers I've talked to whom have killed someone feel regret. Even those who only drank 2 beers, and I talked to them 15 years later). 

The only real difference is that you will never know if you killed anyone with your actions. You may not even acknowledge that you had the potential to do so. The drunk drivers know that they are murderers, you do not. You don't even consider the possibility. That is literally the only difference.

And yet, one you acknowledge as being a horrible thing to do, the other you dismiss any risk from.


----------



## jobo (May 28, 2020)

Monkey Turned Wolf said:


> I'm going just based on my area. What I've looked up (a week or two ago, see earlier in this thread), each town in my county seemed to be about 2% that had it.


 was that a result of testing or just a figure someone pulled out of a hat. ? there has been a lot of hats involved in this

they are currently doing mass testing people associated with professional soccer, in England not just players but all the staff.

they are currently getting a positive rate of circa 0.4 % or 4 in a thousand or 250 to one, they may not be a truly Representative group, but i doubt it differ to the true average by 500%

the only other mass testing they have done are health workers etc, they are themselves very very far from being representative of the public at large


----------



## dvcochran (May 28, 2020)

Headhunter said:


> Right now it is just as risky.....I know you enjoy taking your kid to karate and telling everyone all about it but there's a reason clubs closed down in the first place and the situation now is no better than it was then.


The situation has gotten Much better and the numbers prove that, skewed as they are. And you answered your own question. Initially schools were closed per Our government's mandate. Schools are now allowed to open per Our government's guidelines. He is following Our government's leadership to the letter. He is not out there going rogue much as you want to imply this. 
He is within his rights according to Our government's law. You are within your rights to continue your attempts at fearmongering due to the freedoms afforded by Our country and the brave men and women who fight for it..


----------



## jobo (May 28, 2020)

Monkey Turned Wolf said:


> It actually is similar. Approximately 10k people per year are killed as a result of drunk drivers in the US. Most people who drive while drunk do not kill anyone or even get into an accident or get caught doing so. And yet something like 20% of people know someone who died due to drunk driving.
> 
> In comparison, 102K people died from COVID-19 in the US. Since it's been here for less than half a year, compare that to probably 4k drunk drivers in the same amount of time. Most people who go out are not spreading COVID, because they don't have it. But, similarly to drunk driving, when enough people do so, they are spreading it and killing others without any malicious intent whatsoever (all the drunk drivers I've talked to whom have killed someone feel regret. Even those who only drank 2 beers, and I talked to them 15 years later).
> 
> ...



you can only really project those figures in that way, if the death rate for the US has increased by 102 000


----------



## Flying Crane (May 28, 2020)

Monkey Turned Wolf said:


> It actually is similar. Approximately 10k people per year are killed as a result of drunk drivers in the US. Most people who drive while drunk do not kill anyone or even get into an accident or get caught doing so. And yet something like 20% of people know someone who died due to drunk driving.
> 
> In comparison, 102K people died from COVID-19 in the US. Since it's been here for less than half a year, compare that to probably 4k drunk drivers in the same amount of time. Most people who go out are not spreading COVID, because they don't have it. But, similarly to drunk driving, when enough people do so, they are spreading it and killing others without any malicious intent whatsoever (all the drunk drivers I've talked to whom have killed someone feel regret. Even those who only drank 2 beers, and I talked to them 15 years later).
> 
> ...


Very well articulated sir.


----------



## Gerry Seymour (May 28, 2020)

dvcochran said:


> @_Simon_  , temperature is thought to deter the virus here in the states. With the generally higher temperatures where you live does that seem to track? The southern U.S. states have certainly had it easier here so far.
> 
> I was chatting with a farmer friend last week and he said they were getting up square bale hay in 44° C (112° F) heat. All I could say was I sure hope it was a dry heat.


Since coronaviruses are (I think I have the terminology correct) fatty viruses, they are less resilient during warm weather. That apparently affects how long they survive outside the body, though, rather than how infectious they are. The major outbreaks in Brazil and elsewhere in South America are evidence of that last point.


----------



## Gerry Seymour (May 28, 2020)

dvcochran said:


> 50/50 chance? That is outright absurd. I find it truly bizarre how we went through the avian flu pandemic in 2008 and didn't miss a beat. And it has never went away but you never hear about that. This thing is for real, sure but it has been the greatest spin in the history of man.


The avian flu didn't kill 100,000 people in the US. This isn't at all like that.


----------



## Kung Fu Wang (May 28, 2020)

One of my students had recovered from it. Do you think it's safe for me to meet him?

Your thought?


----------



## Gerry Seymour (May 28, 2020)

Kung Fu Wang said:


> One of my students had recovered from it. Do you think it's safe for me to meet him?
> 
> Your thought?


From what I've read, if they've recovered, they should be safe. Possibly safer to meet with than someone who hasn't (so far as you know) had it yet.


----------



## dvcochran (May 28, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> The avian flu didn't kill 100,000 people in the US. This isn't at all like that.


CDC says avian killed about a million and 100,000 in the US. But is did mis-speak; I meant the swine flu of '08-'09.


----------



## Gerry Seymour (May 29, 2020)

dvcochran said:


> CDC says avian killed about a million and 100,000 in the US. But is did mis-speak; I meant the swine flu of '08-'09.


I wasn't able to find anything showing those stats in a quick search. In any case, I neglected to finish my sentence earlier: "...100,000 people in the US in 6 months."


----------



## jobo (May 29, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> I wasn't able to find anything showing those stats in a quick search. In any case, I neglected to finish my sentence earlier: "...100,000 people in the US in 6 months."


but thats not right its only 4 months, though theres absolutely no logic for projecting that forward as likely being 300,000 in 12 months

as the avian flu only lasted just over 6 months in total, there no reason to suspect this outbreak wont be on a similar time scale


----------



## Gerry Seymour (May 29, 2020)

jobo said:


> but thats not right its only 4 months, though theres absolutely no logic for projecting that forward as likely being 300,000 in 12 months
> 
> as the avian flu only lasted just over 6 months in total, there no reason to suspect this outbreak wont be on a similar time scale


Firstly, I didn't project anything to 300,000. You seem to have done that, yourself. The coronavirus outbreak is not over, and that's my point. We're at 100K in the US, and folks are still dying, though thankfully at a reducing rate. This thing is not over.


----------



## Flying Crane (May 29, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> I wasn't able to find anything showing those stats in a quick search. In any case, I neglected to finish my sentence earlier: "...100,000 people in the US in 6 months."


Four months.  Early February until now.

The true death toll may be higher and may extend farther back in time.  But those that we have counted have happened within four months.


----------



## Flying Crane (May 29, 2020)

Kung Fu Wang said:


> One of my students had recovered from it. Do you think it's safe for me to meet him?
> 
> Your thought?


That is as yet unknown, from my understanding.  Last I heard it is unclear if the antibodies found in those who have recovered offer any immunity, and if so, for how long.  

Typically in viruses this would be true.  This particular virus seems to be throwing us a few curve balls.


----------



## jobo (May 29, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> Firstly, I didn't project anything to 300,000. You seem to have done that, yourself. The coronavirus outbreak is not over, and that's my point. We're at 100K in the US, and folks are still dying, though thankfully at a reducing rate. This thing is not over.


no you didn't project 300,000 as you'd got the time scale wrong, there doesn't seem much point mentioning 6 months unless you making the point that you can use that to project


----------



## CB Jones (May 29, 2020)

One draw back with the re-opening we have run into is that during the isolation, Jacob was getting the daily workouts from a training center.  Now that the training center is back open they don't send out the daily workouts to their fighters anymore.

Luckily he wrote down all the workouts so he can just use the ones he already has.


----------



## Monkey Turned Wolf (May 29, 2020)

CB Jones said:


> One draw back with the re-opening we have run into is that during the isolation, Jacob was getting the daily workouts from a training center.  Now that the training center is back open they don't send out the daily workouts to their fighters anymore.
> 
> Luckily he wrote down all the workouts so he can just use the ones he already has.


I'm guessing it's a training center that he otherwise wouldn't have access to?


----------



## CB Jones (May 29, 2020)

Monkey Turned Wolf said:


> I'm guessing it's a training center that he otherwise wouldn't have access to?



Its 3 hours away.  The owner and Jacob are good friends and has offered to let Jacob come train with them for a week in the past but we just haven't been able to do it due to scheduling conflicts.


----------



## dvcochran (May 29, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> Four months.  Early February until now.
> 
> The true death toll may be higher and may extend farther back in time.  But those that we have counted have happened within four months.


True death toll? That will never be possible. How will you ever account for the doctors and hospitals using the virus for unspecified cases? Since insurance will pay for these charges it is being used as a money maker. But it is skewing the numbers by a predicted 20%.


----------



## jobo (May 29, 2020)

dvcochran said:


> True death toll? That will never be possible. How will you ever account for the doctors and hospitals using the virus for unspecified cases? Since insurance will pay for these charges it is being used as a money maker. But it is skewing the numbers by a predicted 20%.


 well the whole thing has disappeared here, there are still lock down rules but nobody with the exception of my sister is taking much notice,

from Monday we can have groups of up to six in the open air, someone should tell the numerous groups of 12 in the park

any pretence at social distancing has stopped which makes my sister very cross, as she order people to get on their own side of the path


----------



## Gerry Seymour (May 29, 2020)

jobo said:


> no you didn't project 300,000 as you'd got the time scale wrong, there doesn't seem much point mentioning 6 months unless you making the point that you can use that to project


You’re drawing an inference, and claiming it’s an implication.


----------



## Gerry Seymour (May 29, 2020)

dvcochran said:


> True death toll? That will never be possible. How will you ever account for the doctors and hospitals using the virus for unspecified cases? Since insurance will pay for these charges it is being used as a money maker. But it is skewing the numbers by a predicted 20%.


There’s no significant evidence of that happening in large numbers.


----------



## KenpoMaster805 (May 30, 2020)

If my studio reopens ill be Happy because im back in my karate class


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## geezer (Jun 2, 2020)

dvcochran said:


> CDC says avian killed about a million and *100,000 in the US.* But is did mis-speak; I meant the *swine flu *of '08-'09.



That sounds _totally_ wrong, whether you are talking about _"Bird Flu"_ or _"Swine Flu"._

There are several strains of _"Avian Influenza" _that affect humans, with H5N1 being the one most commonly referenced. It can be very deadly, but only a relative handful of cases have been reported worldwide and _none_, I believe, in the US. Check this: Avian Flu Fast Facts - CNN

Now regarding the _"Swine Flu"_ or H1N1 outbreak of 2009, the CDC estimate that anywhere from 151,575 - 579,400 people worldwide may have died, but in the US, the total number of cases was 60,8 million with *12,469 deaths. *In addition, unlike the current Covid-19 pandemic, there were antiviral therapies and a vaccine was produced late in the flu season that, while too late to help much in the initial wave, gave some assurance that we were prepared against a possible recurrence the next year. Check this source:
2009 H1N1 Pandemic

So, back in your post No. 246, you stated: _ "I find it truly bizarre how we went through the avian flu pandemic in 2008 and didn't miss a beat. And it has never went away but you never hear about that..." _

Then you followed up with post 267 where you stated  _"CDC says avian killed about a million and *100,000 in the US*.",_ and then corrected yourself to say you meant the "Swine Flu" outbreak of '09. Again the actual figure is *12,469 deaths in the US.* With Covid-19, we are still in the middle of an ongoing pandemic and the US death toll is conservatively already at 100,000 and climbing. Does this clear up your _confusion?_
*
*


----------



## geezer (Jun 2, 2020)

BTW - as a follow up to my last post, I don't wish to appear preachy, and I'll be the first to say that I can get _my_ facts wrong. I do it all the time. When I do, _please correct me!_ ...and if you can provide a link to a source, I'd be grateful. Personally, I think that if more people would make a habit of going to _several_ solid sources and _fact check_ some of the crazy stuff people say, we as individuals, and collectively as a country, would be a lot better off! ...Same applies to a lot of BS you hear in the _Martial Arts!_ 

Besides guys, fact checking isn't hard these days with a few google-searches to legit sources. Researching used to be an arcane art and a _total pain,_ back when I was a kid in school (in the late 60s and 70s). To write a research paper, you had to get down to the public library, or even go over to the university library and start searching for stuff in vast rows of file tables called "card catalogues" each with with dozens of massive drawers full of thousands of index cards. Or, with the help of a librarian, you could go down to the basement and wade through stacks of periodicals and look through endless rolls of _micro-fiche_ film read on little projection devices, and after hours of looking, ...more often than not, you _never found_ what exactly you wanted. 

Yet oddly enough, today with such easy access to information, most people never check anything, or worse, only seek out sources that they already agree with, _regardless of reliability_. Now that's just ... kinda sad.


----------



## Flying Crane (Jun 2, 2020)

geezer said:


> BTW - as a follow up to my last post, I don't wish to appear preachy, and I'll be the first to say that I can get _my_ facts wrong. I do it all the time. When I do, _please correct me!_ ...and if you can provide a link to a source, I'd be grateful. Personally, I think that if more people would make a habit of going to _several_ solid sources and _fact check_ some of the crazy stuff people say, we as individuals, and collectively as a country, would be a lot better off! ...Same applies to a lot of BS you hear in the _Martial Arts!_
> 
> Besides guys, fact checking isn't hard these days with a few google-searches to legit sources. Researching used to be an arcane art and a _total pain,_ back when I was a kid in school (in the late 60s and 70s). To write a research paper, you had to get down to the public library, or even go over to the university library and start searching for stuff in vast rows of file tables called "card catalogues" each with with dozens of massive drawers full of thousands of index cards. Or, with the help of a librarian, you could go down to the basement and wade through stacks of periodicals and look through endless rolls of _micro-fiche_ film read on little projection devices, and after hours of looking, ...more often than not, you _never found_ what exactly you wanted.
> 
> Yet oddly enough, today with such easy access to information, most people never check anything, or worse, only seek out sources that they already agree with, _regardless of reliability_. Now that's just ... kinda sad.


I agree with you.  And there are also fact checking websites that do a pretty transparent job of researching this stuff and presenting their findings.  Unfortunately some people are seeing political agenda in these sites.  Well...whadaya gonna do?


----------



## geezer (Jun 2, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> Unfortunately some people are seeing political agenda in these sites.



No doubt they are right. Anything that contradicts what you already believe is clearly a *conspiracy! * So be sure and stick with googling only those who already agree with you. And remember, the deep state in collusion with the illuminati and their elite pawns wants you to buy into their _*dangerous agenda. *_Heck, they've even convinced people that the earth isn't flat! 

Not me though. I've already got my tickets to the upcoming _Global Flat-Earth Conference._


----------



## jobo (Jun 2, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> I agree with you.  And there are also fact checking websites that do a pretty transparent job of researching this stuff and presenting their findings.  Unfortunately some people are seeing political agenda in these sites.  Well...whadaya gonna do?


 people generally dont deal in facts, at best they are vague approximation of facts, but commonly they are either wrong or so inaccurate that they mislead, or even more commonly just their opinion.

telling people there facts are infact nonfactual makes them become irritable and occupationally very cross and start throwing around accusations of pedantry. its almost like they want to be wrong

last year, i had a heated telephone call with my nephews teacher, who had marked his home work wrong

she had told the kids the days get longer in the summer time, and that is just very wrong, they get longer in the winter and  spring and shorter in the summer, yet they put buffoons who cant work a Calendar in charge of kids education, she accused me of pedantry which is the wrong use of pedantry as i told her


----------



## skribs (Jun 2, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> I agree with you. And there are also fact checking websites that do a pretty transparent job of researching this stuff and presenting their findings. Unfortunately some people are seeing political agenda in these sites. Well...whadaya gonna do?



I figured I'd come back into this.  There are facts, and there are opinions based on those facts.  For example, it is a fact that anywhere from 40-80% of people who have the virus are asymptomatic.  The article that I read on this used that fact, and their opinion can be summarized as "this makes the disease even scarier, because you can get it from someone who didn't even know they had it!  And this means it's more important to continue quarantines until we can develop a cure."

Meanwhile, I look at that data, and I see "40-80% of the people who get the virus have no reaction, meaning this virus is significantly less dangerous than people think.  We should be allowed to re-open, because these quarantines are causing economic and emotional depressions."

It's the same fact.  It's a different interpretation of the fact that's political.  And this is why fact checker sites are a problem for any political issue.  If they're just reporting a fact, that's fine.  If they're reporting facts, *and then telling you what those facts mean*, that's an opinion.  You can't fact-check an opinion.  But a fact-checker will present it as such.  And people on either side of any political issue like to think that their side is common sense.  I've been in several debates (like this one) where people assume their opinion is fact, and then try to say "it's not even a political issue."  But it is when there are different opinions and policies are being made.  People assume that because their opinions are based on facts, everyone else's ideas are stupid.  But that's because there are different conclusions that can be drawn from the same set of facts.

Putting it in context of martial arts, what is the best way to respond when your opponent strikes?  Is it:

Counter-strike to interrupt them
Block and grab their strike and attack the limb
Advance and clinch so they can't keep striking, and then take them down
Retreat and stay out of their range
Side-step and try to circle behind them
There is no right or wrong answer in that list.  All of those will depend on multiple factors.  All of those will sometimes work, and sometimes not.  There is a "fact" that your opponent is striking, but there are a lot of potential responses, and you sometimes won't know which was the right response until afterward.  Some people may see some strategies as dumb, or some as the obvious pick.  I've seen lots and lots of arguments based on that.  And in these arguments, everyone firmly believes that they are right.  Yet, we all have access to the same facts.  We've just made our own opinions on which facts matter, which ones are irrelevant, and how to use those opinions to form our arguments.

It's the same here.  There are many facts about this virus that make *me *think continued measures are done out of irrational fear or political power.  My parents believe our Governor is trying to make small businesses fail, so they'll vote for more socialist reform to help them recover.  I don't know if that's true, or if it's just that he's scared of the virus.  

To be clear - the most recent facts that help me form this opinion come from a site that's against re-opening.  I just interpreted their facts different than they did.  I interpreted it the same as my parents did.  (Fun fact: their church asked who wants to come back and who doesn't.  Most of the 50+ parishioners want to come back, while most in the 30-39 age range want to continue social distancing).  I interpreted it the same as my best friend, who isn't a doctor, but is in a very intellectually-demanding job at a multi-billion dollar tech company.  I've interpreted it the same as my sister and her husband, who majored in medicine.  The same as several doctor and nurse friends that I know from Taekwondo.  The same as most people who work at my hospital, including surgeons and ER docs.  The overwhelming majority of people in my life (especially those with high intelligence, wisdom, or specific skills relating to medicine) are for re-opening.  

Then I come here and basically get told that I'm a bad person and a conspiracy theorist because I have a different opinion than you?  Who the hell are you?  My opinion is just as valid as yours.  If people want to social distance, I respect them.  But I'm not evil because I want my life back.


----------



## jobo (Jun 2, 2020)

skribs said:


> I figured I'd come back into this.  There are facts, and there are opinions based on those facts.  For example, it is a fact that anywhere from 40-80% of people who have the virus are asymptomatic.  The article that I read on this used that fact, and their opinion can be summarized as "this makes the disease even scarier, because you can get it from someone who didn't even know they had it!  And this means it's more important to continue quarantines until we can develop a cure."
> 
> Meanwhile, I look at that data, and I see "40-80% of the people who get the virus have no reaction, meaning this virus is significantly less dangerous than people think.  We should be allowed to re-open, because these quarantines are causing economic and emotional depressions."
> 
> ...


 but that can NOT be a fact, a fact being something that is verifiable, by in this case by science
it may be a projection based on facts, it is a fact that someone has done a projection,, but projections are not facts, because they are projections

projection with a range of accuracy between 40 and 80 % are little more than a guess.

how bad does the data have to be to have that margin of error ?


----------



## dvcochran (Jun 2, 2020)

geezer said:


> That sounds _totally_ wrong, whether you are talking about _"Bird Flu"_ or _"Swine Flu"._
> 
> There are several strains of _"Avian Influenza" _that affect humans, with H5N1 being the one most commonly referenced. It can be very deadly, but only a relative handful of cases have been reported worldwide and _none_, I believe, in the US. Check this: Avian Flu Fast Facts - CNN
> 
> ...



Hmm, I am not certain who is confused. I clarified that I mis-spoke in a post to Gerry. The numbers are straight off the CDC website, I am not stating anything new just repeated published facts. 
I knew a vaccine was found but do not recall the timing of it relevant to when the outbreak began. 
What I mean by "did not miss a beat" is the country was not shut down nor the economy crashed. I do not see or remember any inference to political motivations or issues with other countries.
Does this clear up Your _confusion?_


----------



## skribs (Jun 2, 2020)

jobo said:


> but that can NOT be a fact, a fact being something that is verifiable, by in this case by science
> it may be a projection based on facts, it is a fact that someone has done a projection,, but projections are not facts, because they are projections
> 
> projection with a range of accuracy between 40 and 80 % are little more than a guess.
> ...



In that case it was several different data points.  For example, one batch of people 80% of those who were positive were asymptomatic, in another batch of people 40% were asymptomatic.  Regardless, it's a fact that a large number of people who have the virus are asymptomatic.


----------



## Flying Crane (Jun 2, 2020)

skribs said:


> I figured I'd come back into this.  There are facts, and there are opinions based on those facts.  For example, it is a fact that anywhere from 40-80% of people who have the virus are asymptomatic.  The article that I read on this used that fact, and their opinion can be summarized as "this makes the disease even scarier, because you can get it from someone who didn't even know they had it!  And this means it's more important to continue quarantines until we can develop a cure."
> 
> Meanwhile, I look at that data, and I see "40-80% of the people who get the virus have no reaction, meaning this virus is significantly less dangerous than people think.  We should be allowed to re-open, because these quarantines are causing economic and emotional depressions."
> 
> ...


Yeah, I’m not gonna rehash it with you.


----------



## skribs (Jun 2, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> Yeah, I’m not gonna rehash it with you.



That's kind of my point.  We have access to the same facts.  We have different interpretations of those facts.  I don't think less of you for your interpretation.

I think less of those who think less of others for having their own interpretation.


----------



## geezer (Jun 3, 2020)

dvcochran said:


> Hmm, I am not certain who is confused. What I mean by "did not miss a beat" is *the country was not shut down* nor the economy crashed. I do not see or remember any inference to political motivations or issues with other countries.
> Does this clear up Your _confusion?_



^^^^ Did you even _read_ my bolded stats next to the ones you quoted? Did you _check_ the CDC link I provided as the source for those stats? In the 2009 H1N1 outbreak, there were only 12,469 deaths reported altogether in the US. The level of contagion and mortality were a fraction of what we are facing now with Covid-19, where we've already passed 100,000 deaths in the US to date. _That's_ why the country was _not_ shut down then, and why _it was_ shut down this spring.

Your apparent refusal to acknowledge this fact is the only thing that leaves _me_ confused. What am I missing, DV?


----------



## Flying Crane (Jun 3, 2020)

skribs said:


> That's kind of my point.  We have access to the same facts.  We have different interpretations of those facts.  I don't think less of you for your interpretation.
> 
> I think less of those who think less of others for having their own interpretation.


I think it’s not worth getting into again.  When I made that post I was actually thinking of someone else not from these forums.  It wasn’t until I made the post that I realized I was probably gonna year from you about it.  But it’s not worth arguing about it again.


----------



## geezer (Jun 3, 2020)

On a separate, but related topic-- I just had a phone conversation with my old kung-fu brother and training partner who will be _returning permanently to my area_ after moving to Cali about 9 years ago. This is good news for me as I will again have someone locally to train with in the particular branch of Wing Chun I practice. Also, he had a few very loyal personal students who may "return to the fold" now that their old sifu is coming home. 

This could revitalize our local group ...except ...How _safe _will it be for us to start training Wing Chun again, a very close-range art in which there is a lot of person to person physical contact in training? 

During our phone conversation, I speculated that our core group could probably train chi-sau and the other contact aspects of the art without excessive risk if we were very careful, checked our temperatures prior to training, wore _masks_ when working close together, and washed our hands and arms (or at least used hand sanitizer) immediately before and after training. Not a perfect solution, but worth considering.

To this, my old training partner responded, _"Naw, I *don't *wear masks. That's the kinda BS I've had to put up with here in California and I'm done with it." _Apparently, I'd touched a nerve, so I didn't draw him out further on the subject at that time.

The weird thing is, I've heard similar responses from a couple of other people I train with. And the only thing they seem to have in common is that they all have very conservative _political_ outlooks. My question is why _common sense safety measures_ in training ...stuff that is really comparable to wearing gloves, mouthguards, and cups when sparring... has to be politicized. I never heard anybody in my Escrima class refuse to wear eye protection when doing knife drills with training knives because of their political or religious affiliation!

So what the bloody hell is going on???


----------



## Flying Crane (Jun 3, 2020)

geezer said:


> On a separate, but related topic-- I just had a phone conversation with my old kung-fu brother and training partner who will be _returning permanently to my area_ after moving to Cali about 9 years ago. This is good news for me as I will again have someone locally to train with in the particular branch of Wing Chun I practice. Also, he had a few very loyal personal students who may "return to the fold" now that their old sifu is coming home.
> 
> This could revitalize our local group ...except ...How _safe _will it be for us to start training Wing Chun again, a very close-range art in which there is a lot of person to person physical contact in training?
> 
> ...


<<sigh>>


----------



## geezer (Jun 3, 2020)

skribs said:


> Then I come here and basically get told that I'm a bad person and a *conspiracy theorist* because I have a different opinion than you?  Who the hell are you?  My opinion is just as valid as yours.  If people want to social distance, I respect them.  But I'm not evil because I want my life back.



Ah ...I may have skimmed parts of this thread. I didn't get _which_ conspiracy theory you were accused of. No matter. And I, for one, don't think you are _evil_ for wanting your old life back.

Or ...wait a minute! ....You _could_ be evil ...depending on just _what _kind of life you were living before....


----------



## dvcochran (Jun 3, 2020)

geezer said:


> ^^^^ Did you even _read_ my bolded stats next to the ones you quoted? Did you _check_ the CDC link I provided as the source for those stats? In the 2009 H1N1 outbreak, there were only 12,469 deaths reported altogether in the US. The level of contagion and mortality were a fraction of what we are facing now with Covid-19, where we've already passed 100,000 deaths in the US to date. _That's_ why the country was _not_ shut down then, and why _it was_ shut down this spring.
> 
> Your apparent refusal to acknowledge this fact is the only thing that leaves _me_ confused. What am I missing, DV?


You are not missing anything.


----------



## dvcochran (Jun 3, 2020)

skribs said:


> I figured I'd come back into this.  There are facts, and there are opinions based on those facts.  For example, it is a fact that anywhere from 40-80% of people who have the virus are asymptomatic.  The article that I read on this used that fact, and their opinion can be summarized as "this makes the disease even scarier, because you can get it from someone who didn't even know they had it!  And this means it's more important to continue quarantines until we can develop a cure."
> 
> Meanwhile, I look at that data, and I see "40-80% of the people who get the virus have no reaction, meaning this virus is significantly less dangerous than people think.  We should be allowed to re-open, because these quarantines are causing economic and emotional depressions."
> 
> ...


Skribs,  don't think you could have said that better.


----------



## jobo (Jun 3, 2020)

skribs said:


> In that case it was several different data points.  For example, one batch of people 80% of those who were positive were asymptomatic, in another batch of people 40% were asymptomatic.  Regardless, it's a fact that a large number of people who have the virus are asymptomatic.


 so this is two studies that significantly disagree with each other, that you have amalgamated and called a fact.

when its just as likely that one it totally and utterly wrong or they are both in error and the truth lies elsewhere


----------



## Dirty Dog (Jun 3, 2020)

jobo said:


> so this is two studies that significantly disagree with each other, that you have amalgamated and called a fact.
> 
> when its just as likely that one it totally and utterly wrong or they are both in error and the truth lies elsewhere



Actually, no. They're both right. Because there is more than one strain of the virus. The one that struck the west coast of the US has been less contagious and had a lower mortality rate. The one that hit the east has been more virulent and more deadly. Multiple strains are also believed to be one cause of the high number of false negatives with the COVID swab tests. We've diagnosed most of our cases not with the swab, but by the elevations in things like ferritin, d-dimer, CRP, lactate dehydrogenase, etc.


----------



## jobo (Jun 3, 2020)

geezer said:


> On a separate, but related topic-- I just had a phone conversation with my old kung-fu brother and training partner who will be _returning permanently to my area_ after moving to Cali about 9 years ago. This is good news for me as I will again have someone locally to train with in the particular branch of Wing Chun I practice. Also, he had a few very loyal personal students who may "return to the fold" now that their old sifu is coming home.
> 
> This could revitalize our local group ...except ...How _safe _will it be for us to start training Wing Chun again, a very close-range art in which there is a lot of person to person physical contact in training?
> 
> ...


 well whats going on, is there has been an enormous restriction on personal freedoms

how you view that has a lot to do with your philosophy of life and how much trust you have in the state to make sensible decisions and have your best interests at heart

my sister and myself have viewed this whole thing completely differently, she has followed every lock down rule to the very letter, if its actually logical or not.

even to the point of paying a plumber many hundreds of pounds to fix her hot water, when i would have done it for nothing, because plumbers are allowed under the rules and brothers are not,

 there is no logical reason to assume the plumber is less of a likely cause of infection than i am, in fact the opposite is possibly a reasonable conclusion, but rules are rules even if they are stupid rules

even if you accept the rules are rules thing, the enforcement bodies have constantly and repeatedly enforced rules that dont actually exist. whilst ignoring breaches that fall into the to much trouble, lets ignore it category

no matter what your view of the rules are and if they are reasonable the bureaucracy has gone into over drive and restricted more freedoms than allowed by law

its common for  government who restrict freedoms to tell you its to protect you, from,,, what ever

personally i dont think its a conspiracy, just ineptitude and trying to look like they are doing something to control a situation that is largely out of their control, however the net result is the same, my freedoms have been removed for no good reason


----------



## jobo (Jun 3, 2020)

Dirty Dog said:


> Actually, no. They're both right. Because there is more than one strain of the virus. The one that struck the west coast of the US has been less contagious and had a lower mortality rate. The one that hit the east has been more virulent and more deadly. Multiple strains are also believed to be one cause of the high number of false negatives with the COVID swab tests. We've diagnosed most of our cases not with the swab, but by the elevations in things like ferritin, d-dimer, CRP, lactate dehydrogenase, etc.


 until the results have been consistently replicated, it just an assumption that either is correct. or that there are not other strains of the virus that significantly vary from those results, either way its not a fact, it may have had slightly more validity if he had said in america and that studies had indicated rather than the blanket statement he made that it was so


----------



## CB Jones (Jun 3, 2020)

I just find it interesting how apparently you become immune to the Covid virus if you are protesting.


----------



## Flying Crane (Jun 3, 2020)

CB Jones said:


> I just find it interesting how apparently you become immune to the Covid virus if you are protesting.


Give it a couple weeks, I expect we will see massive spikes in infection everywhere.  I really hope I am wrong.

A brand new reason why now is not the time to disregard distancing and masks, nor to be in a rush to open up.


----------



## jobo (Jun 3, 2020)

CB Jones said:


> I just find it interesting how apparently you become immune to the Covid virus if you are protesting.


 but then you have to ask yourself how much of the protesting is tied to the general discontent of protesters about erosion of basic freedoms and how much is about the specific trigger. 

there is clearly an enormous amount of anger , but when someone decided to fire bomb a shopping mall, its hard to pick out what their specific motivations and discontents are


----------



## Gerry Seymour (Jun 3, 2020)

skribs said:


> In that case it was several different data points.  For example, one batch of people 80% of those who were positive were asymptomatic, in another batch of people 40% were asymptomatic.  Regardless, it's a fact that a large number of people who have the virus are asymptomatic.


Which is only reassuring if it means a small number get sick. In this case, it doesn’t. It just means there are more available carriers to make folks sick.


----------



## jobo (Jun 3, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> Which is only reassuring if it means a small number get sick. In this case, it doesn’t. It just means there are more available carriers to make folks sick.


 or it means that a proportion of the infected have a strain that doesn't make them or anyone else sick or it means that a significant proportion of the population have natural immunity so there are less people who will get sick or or or....
in fact the only thing it doesn't show is there are more available carriers, that remains static at the population of any particular country


----------



## Flying Crane (Jun 3, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> Which is only reassuring if it means a small number get sick. In this case, it doesn’t. It just means there are more available carriers to make folks sick.


Many of whom do become quite sick and some of whom die.  Enough to overwhelm the NYC hospitals, for example.


----------



## geezer (Jun 3, 2020)

jobo said:


> ...but then you have to ask yourself how much of the protesting is tied to the general discontent of protesters about erosion of basic freedoms and how much is about the specific trigger. ...there is clearly an enormous amount of anger...



Not doubt there as many reasons to protest (and even to riot) as there are people involved. The lockdown, and even the summer weather are contributing factors. It's getting hot over here. Locally we've had daily high temperatures in the 105°F-110°F (40°C-44°C) range. That contributes to anger. Later in the month when temperatures can approach 120°F (48° C) people stay inside. I've been outside working when it got to 122°F (50°C). Even a pleasantly "dry heat" gets unbearable after a certain point.

Nevertheless, Jobo, for the _vast majority _of those out there marching, this is _not_ about the government eroding our personal freedoms during the shut-down, it is about fighting _perceived systemic racism_, and reforming how the police interact with marginalized and minority communities ...especially poor African American communities.


----------



## jobo (Jun 3, 2020)

geezer said:


> Not doubt there as many reasons to protest (and even to riot) as there are people involved. The lockdown, and even the summer weather are contributing factors. It's getting hot over here. Locally we've had daily high temperatures in the 105°F-110°F (40°C-44°C) range. That contributes to anger. Later in the month when temperatures can approach 120°F (48° C) people stay inside. I've been outside working when it got to 122°F (50°C). Even a pleasantly "dry heat" gets unbearable after a certain point.
> 
> Nevertheless, Jobo, for the _vast majority _of those out there marching, this is _not_ about the government eroding our personal freedoms during the shut-down, it is about fighting _perceived systemic racism_, and reforming how the police interact with marginalized and minority communities ...especially poor African American communities.


and how  have you come to the view of what the vast majority are thinking ?

protests tend to attract professional protesters who just turn up at any old  protest and riots attract people who like to loots shops and set fire to things
im not saying that they dont care, just that may not be their only or even main motivation for being there. other wise they would be less concerned with getting a new tv and stocking up their fridge

they are having mass protests about it here, what good they think that will do, i dont know, its seems more of an excuse to have a mass gathering and ignore the lock down than anything else


----------



## skribs (Jun 3, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> Which is only reassuring if it means a small number get sick. In this case, it doesn’t. It just means there are more available carriers to make folks sick.


But how sick will nost of those folks get?

If you're at risk, then you should definitely isolate.  If a bunch of those of us in lower risk groups get the virus, then it is just another flu.


----------



## CB Jones (Jun 3, 2020)

If they can approve permits for 1000s to meet and protest....shouldnt be any problem our small dojo to open back up.


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## CB Jones (Jun 3, 2020)

@skribs 

Are y'all back open?

One of our schools is back open ....the other hasn't because its in a public building and they won't allow it..


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## skribs (Jun 3, 2020)

CB Jones said:


> If they can approve permits for 1000s to meet and protest....shouldnt be any problem our small dojo to open back up.



Casinos in my state have already reopened.  My Mom said we should just put a slot machine in our dojang.

On a Judo page I'm on, they're complaining in Europe because women of the night can go back to their job before Judo classes can reopen. Im not sure how you maintain 2 meters distance in that profession...


----------



## skribs (Jun 3, 2020)

CB Jones said:


> @skribs
> 
> Are y'all back open?
> 
> One of our schools is back open ....the other hasn't because its in a public building and they won't allow it..


No. We're still waiting on my county to ease restrictions. We will probably do Dan testing in person at the end of the month.

We were trying to find ways to do class with restrictions, but we don't think it will work. We would have to have a strict schedule of who can come when, shorten classes to allow time to clean, still stream for those who can't  or don't want to come in, and we still can't spar, grapple or hold pads. It seemed rather pointless to reopen until we can properly open.


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## geezer (Jun 3, 2020)

jobo said:


> ...protests tend to attract professional protesters who just turn up at any old  protest and riots attract people who like to loots shops and set fire to things



Hmmmm. I'm not a dedicated protester, and I wouldn't even consider looting, but I've a long history of setting_ fire_ to things!

Started when I was five and set the neighbors citrus orchard ablaze, later I blew up pumpkins and mailboxes on Halloween, even set my own hands on fire once. Boy that was nasty. I couldn't find any way to put them out so I eventually dunked them in the toilet bowl. They actually sizzled. Later I channeled my insanity and got interested in art, but while others perfected drawing and painting skills, I took up welding, metal casting, glass-work and ceramics. All pyro-centric art-forms.


----------



## jobo (Jun 3, 2020)

geezer said:


> Hmmmm. I'm not a dedicated protester, and I wouldn't even consider looting, but I've a long history of setting_ fire_ to things!
> 
> Started when I was five and set the neighbors citrus orchard ablaze, later I blew up pumpkins and mailboxes on Halloween, even set my own hands on fire once. Boy that was nasty. I couldn't find any way to put them out so I eventually dunked them in the toilet bowl. They actually sizzled. Later I channeled my insanity and got interested in art, but while others perfected drawing and painting skills, I took up welding, metal casting, glass-work and ceramics. All pyro-centric art-forms.


i would strip the lead covered cabling out of derelict building and smelt it into ingots in the back garden, home made blast furness and all. i was earning more at 9 with a my scrap metal recovery cottage industry, than some working men. then they redeveloped the area and i had to get a paper round


----------



## Headhunter (Jun 3, 2020)

CB Jones said:


> @skribs
> 
> ....the other hasn't because its in a public building and they won't allow it..


At least someone has some common sense


----------



## ShortBridge (Jun 3, 2020)

I am not reopening and I am in no rush. I am in touch with my students.

By the way, I know what the majority of protestors are protesting because I am listening to them and am not being dismissive of what I hear.


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## geezer (Jun 3, 2020)

jobo said:


> i would strip the lead covered cabling out of derelict building and smelt it into ingots in the back garden, home made blast furness and all. i was earning more at 9 with a my scrap metal recovery cottage industry, than some working men. then they redeveloped the area and i had to get a paper round



Clearly, we think alike! My brother and I also melted down scrap lead and poured it into molds to make stuff. Also clearly, all those lead fumes, inhaled at a tender age had an deleterious effect on mental functioning later in life. Cheers mate, --from one one nutty old geezer to another


----------



## geezer (Jun 3, 2020)

ShortBridge said:


> ...I am in* touch* with my students.



_Figuratively_ speaking, I assume!


----------



## ShortBridge (Jun 3, 2020)

geezer said:


> _Figuratively_ speaking, I assume!



Yes.


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## Flying Crane (Jun 3, 2020)

geezer said:


> Hmmmm. I'm not a dedicated protester, and I wouldn't even consider looting, but I've a long history of setting_ fire_ to things!
> 
> Started when I was five and set the neighbors citrus orchard ablaze, later I blew up pumpkins and mailboxes on Halloween, even set my own hands on fire once. Boy that was nasty. I couldn't find any way to put them out so I eventually dunked them in the toilet bowl. They actually sizzled. Later I channeled my insanity and got interested in art, but while others perfected drawing and painting skills, I took up welding, metal casting, glass-work and ceramics. All pyro-centric art-forms.


Nothing like pouring molten metal at 1700 degrees.


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## skribs (Jun 3, 2020)

My main job has re-opened.  I'm required back in to meet 50% workforce this week.  By next week or the following week, we're supposed to be at 100%.

To clarify, this is a rather large hospital that I work at.  And they want us back at full force.  My position is IT.  I could do 99% of my work from home.  Some of my coworkers could do 100% from home.  But we're expected to be in the office.  We still have restrictions in place: a lot more use of hand sanitizer, screening when you enter, and wearing mask in public places.  (And yes, I wear my mask there, because it's required).  But they're ready to open.


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## dvcochran (Jun 4, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> Nothing like pouring molten metal at 1700 degrees.


Metal doesn't become molten until about 2500°.


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## jobo (Jun 4, 2020)

dvcochran said:


> Metal doesn't become molten until about 2500°.


which metal is that ?


----------



## dvcochran (Jun 4, 2020)

jobo said:


> but then you have to ask yourself how much of the protesting is tied to the general discontent of protesters about erosion of basic freedoms and how much is about the specific trigger.
> 
> there is clearly an enormous amount of anger , but when someone decided to fire bomb a shopping mall, its hard to pick out what their specific motivations and discontents are


Protesting is not the issue. That is a constitutional right. The looters and attackers are just bad, opportunistic people who are breaking the law. 
Add in a bunch of stir crazy and impressionable people and a storm starts brewing. 
When you have groups like ANTIFA this is going to happen.


----------



## dvcochran (Jun 4, 2020)

jobo said:


> which metal is that ?


If I recall correctly, steel at 2500°F and iron at about 2750°F.


----------



## jobo (Jun 4, 2020)

dvcochran said:


> If I recall correctly, steel at 2500°F and iron at about 2750°F.


 well yes but they are not all metals, not even most metals, which makes your statement that metals dont become molten to 2500 somewhat inexact

its common in some industries,( aerospace and chemistry) to regards things other than iron and a few more as not being metal at all, however most of the world is firmly convinced that lead and aluminium is a metal


----------



## jobo (Jun 4, 2020)

dvcochran said:


> Protesting is not the issue. That is a constitutional right. The looters and attackers are just bad, opportunistic people who are breaking the law.
> Add in a bunch of stir crazy and impressionable people and a storm starts brewing.
> When you have groups like ANTIFA this is going to happen.


not that clear cut, some times rioting is the only protest that will actually effect any change, thousands of people united in peaceful protest can be a powerful message, burning the capital down tends to get more attention from the powers that be

quite what people are enraged about that they will riot is harder to define, what is does show is that large number are angry enough about something that peaceful protests have not resolved and that shouldnt be ignored by governments


----------



## Flying Crane (Jun 4, 2020)

skribs said:


> My main job has re-opened.  I'm required back in to meet 50% workforce this week.  By next week or the following week, we're supposed to be at 100%.
> 
> To clarify, this is a rather large hospital that I work at.  And they want us back at full force.  My position is IT.  I could do 99% of my work from home.  Some of my coworkers could do 100% from home.  But we're expected to be in the office.  We still have restrictions in place: a lot more use of hand sanitizer, screening when you enter, and wearing mask in public places.  (And yes, I wear my mask there, because it's required).  But they're ready to open.


I hope I’m wrong, but it looks like your hospital is gearing up for the upcoming Covid surge in the Seattle area, on the heels of the protests.  All hands on deck.

I’m glad you are wearing a mask.


----------



## jobo (Jun 4, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> I hope I’m wrong, but it looks like your hospital is gearing up for the upcoming Covid surge in the Seattle area, on the heels of the protests.  All hands on deck.
> 
> I’m glad you are wearing a mask.


 it seems more likely they are gearing up to return to normality ? gearing up for the virus entailed having less people working in hospitals rather than more ?


----------



## skribs (Jun 4, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> I hope I’m wrong, but it looks like your hospital is gearing up for the upcoming Covid surge in the Seattle area, on the heels of the protests.  All hands on deck.
> 
> I’m glad you are wearing a mask.



This was the plan before the death of George Floyd.


----------



## geezer (Jun 4, 2020)

dvcochran said:


> Metal doesn't become molten until about 2500°.



Naw, pure lead melts at just 621.5°F (so figure maybe 650°F in the real world). You can do that with a common propane torch. Aluminum melts at 1221°F which takes a little more, and copper alloys, such as silicon bronze etc. require temperatures around 2,000°F. So for aluminum and bronze I build a small propane fired foundry. Iron on the other hand _does _require hotter temperatures. Like around 2,500°- 2,700 F.  For that you need a cupola furnace. I watched a guy make and use a homemade one once, but never did it myself. As a sculptor, there's a better market for bronze anyway. But, on the other hand iron is so _cool_ ...even if it's _hotter_ ...well...you know what I mean! 

Interesting tidbit. About forty years ago I apprenticed for a while at a bronze/aluminum foundry and got spattered a bit with molten metal a few times. (Back then we never wore full OSHA prescribed safety gear, especially working in an open building with no a/c in Arizona in the summer). 

Interestingly, the aluminum spatter burned way worse than the much hotter bronze. You see bronze spatters in little balls that skitter off your skin while aluminum splats and sticks like tar, and also aluminum transfers heat faster. Nasty stuff. ...Oh, and for Jobo, "aluminum" is just the way we semi-literate colonials try to write "aluminium"!


----------



## geezer (Jun 4, 2020)

skribs said:


> My main job has re-opened  ...(And yes, *I wear my mask* there, because it's required).  But they're ready to open.



Write a protest message on it with a sharpie. Something like "I'm only wearing this because You pay me to do it!" --Might start a trend! 

Oh...and be sure the sharpie script dries before you put it on or you might end up with marks on your face ...and inadvertently get high. Kids... if you're reading this, _don't get any ideas!!! _


----------



## jobo (Jun 4, 2020)

geezer said:


> Write a protest message on it with a sharpie. Something like "I'm only wearing this because You pay me to do it!" --Might start a trend!
> 
> Oh...and be sure the sharpie script dries before you put it on or you might end up with marks on your face ...and inadvertently get high. Kids... if you're reading this, _don't get any ideas!!! _


oh the good old days of solvent based  correction fluid thinner

the more mistakes i made the more correction fluid i used, the more mistakes i made


----------



## Gerry Seymour (Jun 4, 2020)

jobo said:


> or it means that a proportion of the infected have a strain that doesn't make them or anyone else sick or it means that a significant proportion of the population have natural immunity so there are less people who will get sick or or or....
> in fact the only thing it doesn't show is there are more available carriers, that remains static at the population of any particular country


All of which would only be comforting if a small number of people were getting sick. Which is not the case.


----------



## Gerry Seymour (Jun 4, 2020)

skribs said:


> But how sick will nost of those folks get?
> 
> If you're at risk, then you should definitely isolate.  If a bunch of those of us in lower risk groups get the virus, then it is just another flu.


A significant number will die. Doesn’t get much sicker than that.


----------



## jobo (Jun 4, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> All of which would only be comforting if a small number of people were getting sick. Which is not the case.


 well IF 80% of people dont develop symptoms, that only leaves 20% of people who do, only a small % will get really sick


----------



## skribs (Jun 4, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> A significant number will die. Doesn’t get much sicker than that.



Well, on the flipside, we have the issues of quarantine. Depression, suicide, domestic  violence, crime are all up. People are scared to go to the hospital and are dying of treatable diseases at home. 

This is what I've heard from the doctors and nurses at my dojang.


----------



## Gerry Seymour (Jun 4, 2020)

jobo said:


> well IF 80% of people dont develop symptoms, that only leaves 20% of people who do, only a small % will get really sick


A small percentage isn’t the same thing as a small number.


----------



## Gerry Seymour (Jun 4, 2020)

skribs said:


> Well, on the flipside, we have the issues of quarantine. Depression, suicide, domestic  violence, crime are all up. People are scared to go to the hospital and are dying of treatable diseases at home.
> 
> This is what I've heard from the doctors and nurses at my dojang.


That is a side effect I wish we had better statistics for. It almost certainly exists, but we don’t know how much of an increase there has been.


----------



## jobo (Jun 4, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> A small percentage isn’t the same thing as a small number.


it can be


----------



## Gerry Seymour (Jun 4, 2020)

jobo said:


> it can be


If the population in question isn’t large, or the percentage is very small. 

But “could be” is pretty weak in this case.


----------



## jobo (Jun 4, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> If the population in question isn’t large, or the percentage is very small.
> 
> But “could be” is pretty weak in this case.


using undefined terms like ''small number'' is a weak argument, even weaker than the term small %


----------



## jobo (Jun 4, 2020)

the uk government have continued their policy of just making things up on the fly.

having previously discounted the idea of face masks as ineffective and counter productive they are now requiring people to wear them on public transport, but as actual masks are very difficult to get hold of, the government requirement is that you should tie a duster or other large weave piece of cloth round your face like a highway man or be fined, highway robbery indeed


----------



## ShortBridge (Jun 4, 2020)

Sorry, Jobo. That must be horrible for you.


----------



## geezer (Jun 4, 2020)

jobo said:


> the uk government have continued their policy of just making things up on the fly.
> having previously discounted the idea of face masks as ineffective and counter productive they are now requiring people to wear them on public transport...



Wear a killer clown mask (like your avatar). If anyone complains, you are just following regulation! 

And stop complaining. Remember, no matter how bad it gets, you could have our president.


----------



## geezer (Jun 4, 2020)

^^^^ Sorry! My bad. _No politics._ Won't happen again!


----------



## jobo (Jun 4, 2020)

geezer said:


> Wear a killer clown mask (like your avatar). If anyone complains, you are just following regulation!


 its so bizarrely unspecific you could wear much what you want

the ever helpful bbc has a web page with pictures on how to make a mask out of a  t shirt, which goes,,,,,, first cut a piece out of the t shirt, then tie round mouth, really you need to explain that to people


----------



## geezer (Jun 4, 2020)

jobo said:


> its so bizarrely unspecific you could wear much what you want
> ...the ever helpful bbc has a web page with pictures on how to make a mask out of a shirt, first cut a piece out of the t shirt, then tie round mouth



No, no... T-shirts are too porous. The virus can get right through. Better to put a plastic bag over your head and seal it with several wraps of duct-tape tightly wound around your neck. Do that, and I can guarantee that you will never die of Covid-19! 



...OK. I forgot about all the diverse range of intelligence of all the people who might be reading this. People: *DO NOT SEAL YOUR HEAD IN AN AIRTIGHT PLASTIC BAG.*


----------



## Gerry Seymour (Jun 4, 2020)

jobo said:


> using undefined terms like ''small number'' is a weak argument, even weaker than the term small %


There you go again, deflecting from your lack of logic and reason by playing semantic games. The term is relative, and you absolutely understand it. You just pretend it's complicated and difficult to understand, rather than admitting you mixed up percentages and actual numbers.


----------



## Gerry Seymour (Jun 4, 2020)

jobo said:


> the uk government have continued their policy of just making things up on the fly.
> 
> having previously discounted the idea of face masks as ineffective and counter productive they are now requiring people to wear them on public transport, but as actual masks are very difficult to get hold of, the government requirement is that you should tie a duster or other large weave piece of cloth round your face like a highway man or be fined, highway robbery indeed


In many cases, this is progression of understanding. Masks aren't terribly effective (for folks not used to wearing them) at reducing the chance of getting infected. They are more effective (even home-made cloth masks) at preventing outward transmission.


----------



## jobo (Jun 4, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> There you go again, deflecting from your lack of logic and reason by playing semantic games. The term is relative, and you absolutely understand it. You just pretend it's complicated and difficult to understand, rather than admitting you mixed up percentages and actual numbers.


 of course its a relative term, thats the problem, what its relative TO, is known only to you and subject to change to fit what ever point your failing to make

its like them folk who stick very, or ultra or uber in front of things as if it means anything at all in a discussion about relative qualities or quantities


----------



## jobo (Jun 4, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> In many cases, this is progression of understanding. Masks aren't terribly effective (for folks not used to wearing them) at reducing the chance of getting infected. They are more effective (even home-made cloth masks) at preventing outward transmission.





gpseymour said:


> In many cases, this is progression of understanding. Masks aren't terribly effective (for folks not used to wearing them) at reducing the chance of getting infected. They are more effective (even home-made cloth masks) at preventing outward transmission.


 on a loose weave like say a duster, its just going to build up a concentration of virus on the outside of the cloth , meaning that anyone close is going to get a big hit 

people two meters away may be safer, but the reason for wearing them is your going to be cheek by jowl with people on a crowded train


----------



## Gerry Seymour (Jun 4, 2020)

jobo said:


> on a loose weave like say a duster, its just going to build up a concentration of virus on the outside of the cloth , meaning that anyone close is going to get a big hit
> 
> people two meters away may be safer, but the reason for wearing them is your going to be cheek by jowl with people on a crowded train


A build-up on the outside would perhaps be a problem if you sneezed, or such. I don't know if the virus is dislodged easily enough for anything short of a sneeze to make it airborn. If not, people nearby aren't in much danger - certainly probably less than simply breathing in the virus you exhale (rather than it getting lodged somewhere on the mask). Looser weaves will be less effective, but I haven't seen a model or any data to suggest where the line of ineffectiveness might lie.


----------



## jobo (Jun 4, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> A build-up on the outside would perhaps be a problem if you sneezed, or such. I don't know if the virus is dislodged easily enough for anything short of a sneeze to make it airborn. If not, people nearby aren't in much danger - certainly probably less than simply breathing in the virus you exhale (rather than it getting lodged somewhere on the mask). Looser weaves will be less effective, but I haven't seen a model or any data to suggest where the line of ineffectiveness might lie.


 its in a fine mist that has soaked in to the cloth, of course it will be come airborn, if some one decided to hold a flem soaked handkerchief 6 inches from your mouth would you consider that safe ?

coughing or sneezing THROUGH it will just make it worse

you do know how small these things are dont you ? they are not going to be filtered by a duster


----------



## Kung Fu Wang (Jun 4, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> airborn.


If George Floyd is tested positive, should those 4 police officers be infected?


----------



## Gerry Seymour (Jun 4, 2020)

jobo said:


> its in a fine mist that has soaked in to the cloth, of course it will be come airborn, if some one decided to hold a flem soaked handkerchief 6 inches from your mouth would you consider that safe ?
> 
> coughing or sneezing THROUGH it will just make it worse
> 
> you do know how small these things are dont you ? they are not going to be filtered by a duster


So, you meant folks within 6 inches of your face? Yeah, they're probably in trouble. As for the rest, I go with what the scientists say, rather than your rantings. By the way, I'm not even sure what a duster is. In the US, that'd be a thing (often made of feathers or a feather-like material) for dusting.


----------



## Gerry Seymour (Jun 4, 2020)

Kung Fu Wang said:


> If George Floyd is tested positive, should those 4 police officers be infected?


What is the point of this post?


----------



## Kung Fu Wang (Jun 4, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> What is the point of this post?


It doesn't seem the infection is that serious. Not that easy to be infected.

From social distance to this over night. I just don't know what could happen like this.


----------



## Headhunter (Jun 5, 2020)

Kung Fu Wang said:


> It doesn't seem the infection is that serious. Not that easy to be infected.
> 
> From social distance to this over night. I just don't know what could happen like this.


Well yes it is serious,.,,seeing as how many people have died from it....bit of a silly comment......those people....well they're just stupid and yes there probably will be a hell of a lot more infected because of it. But it can take up to 2 weeks to fully come on


----------



## jobo (Jun 5, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> So, you meant folks within 6 inches of your face? Yeah, they're probably in trouble. As for the rest, I go with what the scientists say, rather than your rantings. By the way, I'm not even sure what a duster is. In the US, that'd be a thing (often made of feathers or a feather-like material) for dusting.


i suppose you have no idea what a packed train or bus is like either ?

Amazon.co.uk : yellow dusters

heres is a '' fact'' i didnt know to 30 seconds ago
*Dusters* are *yellow* because it's the colour of the flag hoisted on a ship before coming into port to let those ashore know that the crew were all fit and clean! ... 

though i suspect this is nearer the truth
Why are dusters often yellow?


----------



## dvcochran (Jun 5, 2020)

Just saw this in the news; mask production in certain countries has stopped because of a chemical found on the masks media that can be inhaled and damage the lungs. Just perfect for more law suits to be filed down the road. 
I have wondered the same thing about all of the homemade masks being made out of 'who knows what' kind of material. Some with print and logo's and such on them.


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## Gerry Seymour (Jun 6, 2020)

jobo said:


> i suppose you have no idea what a packed train or bus is like either ?
> 
> Amazon.co.uk : yellow dusters
> 
> ...


Cool trivia.

Looks like an open weave, so probably not as effective (in a single layer, anyway) as a tighter weave. But it'd still break the air current from breathing and coughing, which should limit the distance the droplets travel. Probably less effective on those smaller particles referred to as "aerosolized".

As for a packed bus or train, I wouldn't get on one these days if I had a choice. I'm pretty sure we can make up a circumstance where a given thing doesn't work well, but that doesn't even begin to suggest that thing isn't effective in general.


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## Gerry Seymour (Jun 6, 2020)

dvcochran said:


> Just saw this in the news; mask production in certain countries has stopped because of a chemical found on the masks media that can be inhaled and damage the lungs. Just perfect for more law suits to be filed down the road.
> I have wondered the same thing about all of the homemade masks being made out of 'who knows what' kind of material. Some with print and logo's and such on them.


Yeah, that's an ufortunate side-effect of the sudden nature of this crisis: lots of things there wasn't enough time to figure out. Some bad stuff is going to happen by accident. Man, I hope that doesn't do long-term damage to anyone.


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## jobo (Jun 6, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> Cool trivia.
> 
> Looks like an open weave, so probably not as effective (in a single layer, anyway) as a tighter weave. But it'd still break the air current from breathing and coughing, which should limit the distance the droplets travel. Probably less effective on those smaller particles referred to as "aerosolized".
> 
> As for a packed bus or train, I wouldn't get on one these days if I had a choice. I'm pretty sure we can make up a circumstance where a given thing doesn't work well, but that doesn't even begin to suggest that thing isn't effective in general.


 but that your usual thing of personalising a discussion to your specific circumstances

my comments were very UK specific, they are perhaps not applicable to the USA in general or Gerry in particular

to refresh THE uk government are opening up the economy, that is the restrictions on work, and travel are being scaled back considerably

that then opens up the public transport system as being the only viable way lot of people have of getting to work, after previously putting all sort of restrictions and inconveniences in the way to force people out of cars and onto the system system

so people are going to be using the system as they have little option , then because of chronic under investment over decades that system will be over crowded, it was before, it will be again

the governments answer to that logistical problem is to advise people who will be crammed in like sardines to tie bits of cloth round their airway, that at the very best will be totally inadequate at protecting them, if they dont as seems likely actually make matters worse

the fact that you can elect not to use public transport doesnt seem to affect that in anyway ?


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## Gerry Seymour (Jun 6, 2020)

jobo said:


> but that your usual thing of personalising a discussion to your specific circumstances
> 
> my comments were very UK specific, they are perhaps not applicable to the USA in general or Gerry in particular
> 
> ...


Is it perfect? No. Does it help? Yes. When I've been on public transit in large cities (New York, for instance), I've rarely had anyone within 6" of my face. I think that's probably more common in Tokyo, from the videos I've seen of their transit, but less common in Europe, from my experience there.

The masks - per the science I've seen - help. I'm not really sure why you're still arguing tiny points and trying to find a circumstance where they aren't great. Maybe just don't put your face within 6" of someone else's any more than you must.


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## jobo (Jun 6, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> Is it perfect? No. Does it help? Yes. When I've been on public transit in large cities (New York, for instance), I've rarely had anyone within 6" of my face. I think that's probably more common in Tokyo, from the videos I've seen of their transit, but less common in Europe, from my experience there.
> 
> The masks - per the science I've seen - help. I'm not really sure why you're still arguing tiny points and trying to find a circumstance where they aren't great. Maybe just don't put your face within 6" of someone else's any more than you must.


 because that is the circumstance that my post was about and no, if they dont work at protecting you they dont work, there is not a nuanced middle ground, where they are better than nothing

crowded commuter train, subways and buss are a world wide issue, not something that is the sole preserve of japan. the tube system in london for instance is packed just as tight at 8 in the morning, if you have a square foot of space your not on a crowded one, ive been on trains to London with less room than that,, there not allowed to pack cattle in that tight, hell ive been on packed busses in LA

why your insisting in attributing your middle class semi rural american experience to the rest of the world im not sure. you may have the option not to, millions dont share that privilege


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## Gerry Seymour (Jun 6, 2020)

jobo said:


> because that is the circumstance that my post was about and no, if they dont work at protecting you they dont work, there is not a nuanced middle ground, where they are better than nothing


Work/not work isn't binary. It's a matter of how effective they are. In that crowded train, even if someone is 6" from your face, everyone else is NOT that close. So a bunch of the masks are doing something useful even in that circumstance. So, yeah, a seatbelt isn't much help if your car catches fire or goes undewater, but....



> crowded commuter train, subways and buss are a world wide issue, not something that is the sole preserve of japan. the tube system in london for instance is packed just as tight at 8 in the morning, if you have a square foot of space your not on a crowded one, ive been on trains to London with less room than that,, there not allowed to pack cattle in that tight, hell ive been on packed busses in LA


There's a difference between "crowded" and "faces 6" apart".



> why your insisting in attributing your middle class semi rural american experience to the rest of the world im not sure. you may have the option not to, millions dont share that privilege


I'm not sure where you're getting that from my comments about being on transit in NYC, Chicago, Washington DC, and European cities. I'm going from what I've seen in areas much more crowded than the rural area I call home. I've spent a bit of time in crowded transit.


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## jobo (Jun 6, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> Work/not work isn't binary. It's a matter of how effective they are. In that crowded train, even if someone is 6" from your face, everyone else is NOT that close. So a bunch of the masks are doing something useful even in that circumstance. So, yeah, a seatbelt isn't much help if your car catches fire or goes undewater, but....
> 
> 
> There's a difference between "crowded" and "faces 6" apart".
> ...


 well no its not, if its crowded to the point you cant full expand your lungs, a common even on the London tube, then someones face is only 6 inches away, or considerably less,, unless you some how get every one to face in the same direction in which case its 8 inches away, even if you have a luxurious square foot to stand in, your right in someones breathing zone, at 4, 6 10 inches and you have still got to get off, by pushing sideways through the crowd where its difficult not to touch noses and everyone else square foot reduces accordingly to make room for you

work or not is binary


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## Gerry Seymour (Jun 6, 2020)

jobo said:


> well no its not, if its crowded to the point you cant full expand your lungs, a common even on the London tube, then someones face is only 6 inches away, or considerably less,, unless you some how get every one to face in the same direction in which case its 8 inches away, even if you have a luxurious square foot to stand in, your right in someones breathing zone, at 4, 6 10 inches and you have still got to get off, by pushing sideways through the crowd where its difficult not to touch noses and everyone else square foot reduces accordingly to make room for you
> 
> work or not is binary


You go with that. Those of us who understand statistics will work with reality.


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## jobo (Jun 6, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> You go with that. Those of us who understand statistics will work with reality.


 you haven't got any stats though have you, ive asked before and you just became evasive and unpleasant 

misinterpreting stats, as yuve done several times is one  thing, using imaginary stats to support an irrational view is a whole  new level


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## geezer (Jun 6, 2020)

jobo said:


> you haven't got any stats though have you, ive asked before and you just became evasive and unpleasant
> 
> misinterpreting stats, as yuve done several times is one  thing, using imaginary stats to support an irrational view is a whole  new level



Hmmm. I'm sorta with Gerry on this one. I don't need to have stats to know that sometimes when I'm caught by surprise with a sudden explosive  sneeze or cough, especially when my hands are full and I don't have a chance to cover up, I've blown snot or phlegm all the way across the room, or (equally disgustingly) all over my windshield when driving. And, of course, there's always a mist of droplets left floating in the air. On the other hand, if I were wearing a mask and that happens, at least I'm not going to spray someone standing 6, 8, or even 10 feet away like before!

Now in a super crowded subway or elevator, all bets are off. If, like many urban dwellers, that's an unavoidable part of your life, well it sucks to be you! 

...but seriously, if you_ can't_ avoid crowded spaces, you just have to take whatever sensible precautions you can think of and ...hope for the best. Might try not bathing, eating a ton of beans and garlic... looking like a psychopathic killer clown ...whatever it takes to keep people from crowding in so close to you.


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## jobo (Jun 7, 2020)

geezer said:


> Hmmm. I'm sorta with Gerry on this one. I don't need to have stats to know that sometimes when I'm caught by surprise with a sudden explosive  sneeze or cough, especially when my hands are full and I don't have a chance to cover up, I've blown snot or phlegm all the way across the room, or (equally disgustingly) all over my windshield when driving. And, of course, there's always a mist of droplets left floating in the air. On the other hand, if I were wearing a mask and that happens, at least I'm not going to spray someone standing 6, 8, or even 10 feet away like before!
> 
> Now in a super crowded subway or elevator, all bets are off. If, like many urban dwellers, that's an unavoidable part of your life, well it sucks to be you!
> 
> ...but seriously, if you_ can't_ avoid crowded spaces, you just have to take whatever sensible precautions you can think of and ...hope for the best. Might try not bathing, eating a ton of beans and garlic... looking like a psychopathic killer clown ...whatever it takes to keep people from crowding in so close to you.


 i made a very specific posted dealing with the uk governments strict legal requirement for tieing bits of household cloth round your mouth and nose on crowded commuter transport.

they even went as far as telling you not to use proper masks

im totally at a loss why Gerry is defending that ? im totally at a loss how any one could, but of course he isnt, he has just transposed the whole thing to his experiences and holding forth on totally  unrelated topics

like american transport, not crowded and better masks, something that is totally in effective in the circumstances is not better than nothing. its exactly the same, ie totally ineffective in the circumstances. the circumstances in this case being very close proximity to other people for what could be a fairly long period of time

in fact in many ways its worse, people who otherwise might wait for the next train, make other arrangements or even walk are going to be lulled into a false sense of security, people who have got access to proper masks have been told not to use them


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## geezer (Jun 7, 2020)

jobo said:


> ...something that is totally in effective in the _(previously described circumstances)_ is not better than nothing, it's exactly the same, ie totally ineffective in the _(second set of) _circumstances. the circumstances in this case being very close proximity to other people for what could be a fairly long period of time
> 
> ...in fact in many ways its worse, people who otherwise might wait for the next train, make other arrangements or even walk are going to be lulled into a false sense of security, people who have got access to proper masks have been told not to use them



The above are excerpted remarks from Jobo's previous post ( with italicized sections added for clarity). They are pretty much spot on IMO.


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## Gerry Seymour (Jun 7, 2020)

geezer said:


> The above are excerpted remarks from Jobo's previous post ( with italicized sections added for clarity). They are pretty much spot on IMO.


If it were true that a mask is "totally ineffective" on a train, I'd agree. It's not. It's effective for most folks on there - just not for the 3 whose noses are within 6" of his face (the distance he specified).

Imperfect, but useful. In some circumstances, it might be worth skipping the mask if it's not going to help (and might be worse than nothing), but in most circumstances it's an asset.


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## jobo (Jun 8, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> If it were true that a mask is "totally ineffective" on a train, I'd agree. It's not. It's effective for most folks on there - just not for the 3 whose noses are within 6" of his face (the distance he specified).
> 
> Imperfect, but useful. In some circumstances, it might be worth skipping the mask if it's not going to help (and might be worse than nothing), but in most circumstances it's an asset.


 oh well, you seem to accept bits of rag  are useless in close proximity, whilst doubting that the chronically under funded British transport network gets crowded to the point that close proximity is inevitable,

A state of mind you could only have if you have never been unfortunate enough to travel on the London under ground at 8 in the morning, but hell, dont let your lack of personal experiences get in the way of your opinions that the worlds transport networks are like america

as a point of reference, football with spectators is still banned, though football grounds have no greater density and really in all seater stadia considerably less density than the transport network,,,
coz,,, well its to dangerous to have thousands of people in the same place at the same time...

no one has come up with the genius solution of everyone wrapping a duster round their faces as a working solution.

the reason for this disparity is simply one of expediences, they can easily keep public gathering shut down they cant the transport system, so they are operating two different standards of public safety, one because its saves them money, the other because it costs someone else money


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## Gerry Seymour (Jun 8, 2020)

jobo said:


> oh well, you seem to accept bits of rag  are useless in close proximity, whilst doubting that the chronically under funded British transport network gets crowded to the point that close proximity is inevitable,
> 
> A state of mind you could only have if you have never been unfortunate enough to travel on the London under ground at 8 in the morning, but hell, dont let your lack of personal experiences get in the way of your opinions that the worlds transport networks are like america
> 
> ...


As I've said before, there will be more people outside your immediate proximity than in it, in a crowded area. You're protecting as many as you can by wearing a mask. That you can't protect the 7 people within 6" of your nose doesn't invalidate the protection for the 40 or so others within 12' of you.


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## jobo (Jun 8, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> As I've said before, there will be more people outside your immediate proximity than in it, in a crowded area. You're protecting as many as you can by wearing a mask. That you can't protect the 7 people within 6" of your nose doesn't invalidate the protection for the 40 or so others within 12' of you.


 well yes there will be more people outside MY immediate proximity, than in ,,, by about 70 million,,, that a rather obvious statement,

if they have packed 400 people in to a carriage that could reasonably be expected to carry 50 in comfort, Everyone is in several people breathing zone

IF there is only ONE asymptomatic person in that carriage and IF only three people get infected,, in a few days, those three people are in other and equally crowded carriages and 9 people get infected, then they do it again on the way home and tomorrow and the day after...the arithmetic progression is somewhat obvious.

though clearly not to your Gerry is the centre of the universe perspective, as an individual you can only do what you as an individual can do,,, expectations on government are perhaps different, at the very least they shouldnt lie to us by suggesting that bits of rag give any meaningful measure of protection

if as has happened, im dealing with bio waste and the contractor turned up with handkerchiefs as respiratory protection i would send them home,,, COZ..........


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## Gerry Seymour (Jun 8, 2020)

jobo said:


> well yes there will be more people outside MY immediate proximity, than in ,,, by about 70 million,,, that a rather obvious statement,
> 
> if they have packed 400 people in to a carriage that could reasonably be expected to carry 50 in comfort, Everyone is in several people breathing zone
> 
> ...


Yes. And each of those people will be a meter or more away from most of the people in the carriage. So, effectiveness. 

Your assertion on this is similar to saying seat belts are ineffective because you could drown if the car goes in the water.


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## jobo (Jun 8, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> Yes. And each of those people will be a meter or more away from most of the people in the carriage. So, effectiveness.
> 
> Your assertion on this is similar to saying seat belts are ineffective because you could drown if the car goes in the water.


maybe effective today, maybe , but tomorrow when the number of asymptotic people have increased your chances of being next to one have increased, over a short period of time the probability reaches one, in fact if the stat that was quoted a few days ago, that 80% of people are asymptomatic has any validity, the probability starts at close to one, allowing your not one of the 80%

the seat belt analogy is disingenuous, seat belt effectiveness is defined by their design requirements, that is they hold you in your seat, something they manage with reasonable regularity.

breathing protection for crowded places has only to be judged by the amount of protection it gives you respiratory system in crowded places

saying it gives you protection if no infected people are near you is nonsensical, saying it gives protection in places that are not crowded only draws attention to its short comings

a more accurate analogy would be people not fastening their belt as the chance of any one of them crashing is extremely low, the chance of any of them crashing is quite high, that why generally they dont allow individual centred decisions to be made, in matters of public health


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## CB Jones (Jun 8, 2020)

Statement released from the WHO today that transmission of the Covid-19 virus from someone who is asymptomatic is very rare.


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## jobo (Jun 8, 2020)

how would they know ?


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## CB Jones (Jun 8, 2020)

jobo said:


> how would they know ?



Just passing on the info.

Asymptomatic spread of coronavirus is 'very rare,' WHO says


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## jobo (Jun 8, 2020)

CB Jones said:


> Just passing on the info.
> 
> Asymptomatic spread of coronavirus is 'very rare,' WHO says


''More research and data are needed to “truly answer” the question of whether the coronavirus can spread widely through asymptomatic carriers, Van Kerkhove added.''

so rare but they dont actually know how rare rare is, yes that sounds like a WHO statement


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## Gerry Seymour (Jun 8, 2020)

jobo said:


> maybe effective today, maybe , but tomorrow when the number of asymptotic people have increased your chances of being next to one have increased, over a short period of time the probability reaches one, in fact if the stat that was quoted a few days ago, that 80% of people are asymptomatic has any validity, the probability starts at close to one, allowing your not one of the 80%
> 
> the seat belt analogy is disingenuous, seat belt effectiveness is defined by their design requirements, that is they hold you in your seat, something they manage with reasonable regularity.
> 
> ...


Go ahead. Change your position and change mine to be nothin  I said. Ignore the science. Whatever works for you. 

An interesting side note: the WHO is now saying asymptotic carriers are apparently not effective at transmitting the virus. Not sure what goes on there, but I hope they are right.


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## jobo (Jun 8, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> Go ahead. Change your position and change mine to be nothin  I said. Ignore the science. Whatever works for you.
> 
> An interesting side note: the WHO is now saying asymptotic carriers are apparently not effective at transmitting the virus. Not sure what goes on there, but I hope they are right.


well no they are not
''More research and data are needed to “truly answer” the question of whether the coronavirus can spread widely through asymptomatic carriers, Van Kerkhove added.''

thats code for we have no idea at all, but WHO admit they are clueless is not a good headline


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## Gerry Seymour (Jun 8, 2020)

jobo said:


> well no they are not
> ''More research and data are needed to “truly answer” the question of whether the coronavirus can spread widely through asymptomatic carriers, Van Kerkhove added.''
> 
> thats code for we have no idea at all, but WHO admit they are clueless is not a good headline


You are hilarious. You just argue for the sake of argument. You don’t care about truth or communication.


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## Kung Fu Wang (Jun 8, 2020)

George Floyd tested positive for coronavirus.

George Floyd was killed on May 25 (2 weeks from today). Should those 4 police officers get infected already?  

Why don't we hear any news to report this?


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## Gerry Seymour (Jun 8, 2020)

Kung Fu Wang said:


> George Floyd tested positive for coronavirus.
> 
> George Floyd was killed on May 25 (2 weeks from today). Should those 4 police officers get infected already?
> 
> Why don't we hear any news to report this?


You posted this elsewhere. What is the point of this question?


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## Kung Fu Wang (Jun 8, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> You posted this elsewhere. What is the point of this question?


With such close body contact, the virus should have been transferred.


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## Gerry Seymour (Jun 8, 2020)

Kung Fu Wang said:


> With such close body contact, the virus should have been transferred.


not "should have" - "could have". There's not a 100% transmission rate. I'm pretty sure even breathing directly into someone's nose while actively infected wouldn't provide a 100% transmission rate.


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## Gerry Seymour (Jun 8, 2020)

Returning to the OP topic, I'll have my first class back on Saturday, weather permitting. We'll train outside (at a local park), with significant distance, and will only be doing movement exercises (forms, non-contact weapons work, solo drills). It'll be nice to get back to doing something, though I'm back down to a single student. I still don't know if the dojo is going to survive - I need to call the owner and check in with her.


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## jobo (Jun 9, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> You are hilarious. You just argue for the sake of argument. You don’t care about truth or communication.


 i care very much about truth, its just in very short supply at the moment. thats if we term truth as being indisputable facts, rather than people giving their truthful opinion, but truthful opinions are also at a premium

WHO have been incredibly inconsistent on this topic, they have flip flopped from declaring the outbreak as no great problem at all, to projecting deaths in the many tens of millions and all points in between.

in this case they have said, that asymptomatic deaths are rare, but then followed that by admitting its happen on a an unspecified scale scale and then follow that up by saying we need more data to know. just WHAT does rare mean, thats not a scientific term, its a vague appropriation

the headline writers have jumped on just one element of that, and given no prominence at all to the weasel words that followed and for all we know have emitted great chunks of what was said

you personally have previously cautioned people not to take the '' news''headline from reports on science studies at face value, extremely good advice i might say, but advice in this case you have chosen to ignore, presumably because you want it to be true. as do I, but il reserved judgement till its an actual fact, with some sort of data, rather than a vague assurance


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## jobo (Jun 9, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> You are hilarious. You just argue for the sake of argument. You don’t care about truth or communication.


 here is a more complete version of what she said curtsy of the BBC, who have still run with the misleading headline, but at least have added context in the text

 people with coronavirus but no symptoms infecting others is "very rare", a World Health Organization scientist has said.

Although a proportion of people test positive with no symptoms, it is believed these infections are mostly not passed on.

But people can pass on the disease just before symptoms develop.

The evidence comes from countries that carry out "detailed contact tracing", Dr Maria Van Kerkhove said.

Dr Van Kerkhove, the WHO's head of emerging diseases, made the distinction between three categories:


People who never develop symptoms (asymptomatic)
People who test positive when they don't yet have symptoms - but go on to develop them (pre-symptomatic)
People with very mild or atypical symptoms who do not realise they have coronavirus
Some reports distinguish between these categories while others do not and she said this, along with the relatively small groups of people studied, make it difficult to draw firm conclusions.

Asymptomatic coronavirus transmission 'very rare'


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## jobo (Jun 9, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> You are hilarious. You just argue for the sake of argument. You don’t care about truth or communication.


 and heres is WHO latest advice on the use of masks

they dont know if wearing surgical masks are a benefit or not, they think they might be but have very little evidence that is the case and especially they draw only on data for masks that are medical quality or cotton masks that have 15 FIFTEEN layers

as they dont know if proper masks are a benefit, its somewhat precipitous to think that single layer cotton rags maybe so

Guidance on the use of masks for the general public Available evidence Studies of influenza, influenza-like illness, and human coronaviruses (not including COVID-19) provide evidence that the use of a medical mask can prevent the spread of infectious droplets from a symptomatic infected person (source control) to someone else and potential contamination of the environment by these droplets.(54, 55) There is limited evidence that wearing a medical mask by healthy individuals in households, in particular those who share a house with a sick person, or among attendees of mass gatherings may be beneficial as a measure preventing transmission.(41, 56-61) A recent meta-analysis of these observational studies, with the intrinsic biases of observational data, showed that either disposable surgical masks or reusable 12–16-layer cotton masks were associated with protection of healthy individuals within households and among contacts of cases.(42) This could be considered to be indirect evidence for the use of masks (medical or other) by healthy individuals in the wider community; however, these studies suggest that such individuals would need to be in close proximity to an infected person in a household or at a mass gathering where physical distancing cannot be achieved, to become infected with the virus. Results from cluster randomized controlled trials on the use of masks among young adults living in university residences in the United States of America indicate that face masks may reduce the rate of influenza-like illness, but showed no impact on risk of laboratory-confirmed influenza.(62, 63) At present, there is no direct evidence (from studies on COVID19 and in healthy people in the community) on the effectiveness of universal masking of healthy people in the community to prevent infection with respiratory viruses, including COVID-19


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## jobo (Jun 9, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> You are hilarious. You just argue for the sake of argument. You don’t care about truth or communication.


 and since i quoted that bbc article they have modified it with the view of another two experts,

which throws even more doubt on the WHO statement

*People with symptoms 'highest risk'*
A key question has been whether asymptomatic people pass on their infections on to others.

Contact-tracing studies from a number of countries suggest that while "true" asymptomatic cases "rarely transmit", infection transmission can occur before or on the day symptoms first appear when they may be very mild, according to Prof Babak Javid, an infectious diseases consultant at the University of Cambridge.

People can have detectable amounts of the virus in their system roughly three days before developing symptoms and appear to be capable to passing it on during this period, especially the day before or on the day symptoms begin.

And since people who haven't yet developed symptoms are unlikely to know that they are contagious, pre-symptomatic transmission has "important implications" for track, trace and isolation measures, Prof Javid said.

This emphasises the importance of lockdown measures in "massively reduc[ing] the numbers of people infected," said Prof Liam Smeeth, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

While people without symptoms do seem to be capable of infecting others, current evidence still suggests people with symptoms are the highest risk.

A positive result alone doesn't tell you how much of the virus someone has in their system.

And this - what is known as the viral load - along with whether an infected person is sneezing and coughing and what kind of contact they are having with other people, influences how likely they are to pass the illness on.


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## Headhunter (Jun 9, 2020)

Where I am things are getting there. Gyms opening next week but still with social distancing. Cases here are still rising but not hugely. On official stats we have about 300 negatives tests a day and maybe 1 or 2 positive cases a day if that. We have 5 active cases. Obviously there are way more out there that just haven’t been found. I guarantee it’s the same in New Zealand. Our antibody testing results came back saying about 4500 have the antibody showing they had it and that’s compared to 343 so far who have tested positive but it is what it is. I’m considering going to some outdoor classes as long as they can do it safely. It is still a big risk but you gotta keep going as well now. No where can be 100% sure they’re free of it until there’s a cure


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## Gerry Seymour (Jun 9, 2020)

jobo said:


> and since i quoted that bbc article they have modified it with the view of another two experts,
> 
> which throws even more doubt on the WHO statement
> 
> ...


Man, that’s a lot of words. Most of them don’t disagree with what you seem to think they do. Much of that I explained to you days ago. But go ahead and keep arguing if it feels good.


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## Flying Crane (Jun 9, 2020)

CB Jones said:


> Statement released from the WHO today that transmission of the Covid-19 virus from someone who is asymptomatic is very rare.


Follow up discussion indicates it’s not quite that simple.  Ignore social distancing and the wearing of masks at your peril.

Are asymptomatic people spreading the coronavirus? A WHO official’s words spark confusion, debate


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## jobo (Jun 10, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> Follow up discussion indicates it’s not quite that simple.  Ignore social distancing and the wearing of masks at your peril.
> 
> Are asymptomatic people spreading the coronavirus? A WHO official’s words spark confusion, debate


 well thats WHO back tracking some what

thanks for posting that i confused Gerry and wasted a lot of words explaining that, that, was most certainly wrong, well more exact simplistically inaccurate

when these few words sum it up well
Some countries using contact tracing to work backward from confirmed cases have not found many instances of asymptomatic spread, WHO officials noted. At the same time, WHO officials acknowledged on Tuesday some modeling studies have suggested as much as 41 percent of transmission may be due to asymptomatic people.

or to be even more succinct WHO couldnt find their **** with a flash light


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## dvcochran (Jun 10, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> Follow up discussion indicates it’s not quite that simple.  Ignore social distancing and the wearing of masks at your peril.
> 
> Are asymptomatic people spreading the coronavirus? A WHO official’s words spark confusion, debate


Yep, even within WHO itself, who know what the hell to believe? I have lost a good amount of respect for this entity.


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## jobo (Jun 10, 2020)

dvcochran said:


> Yep, even within WHO itself, who know what the hell to believe? I have lost a good amount of respect for this entity.


by any reasonable measure they have failed at every step.

their almost sole reason for being is to stop epidemics becoming pandemics and for one reason or another( but mostly i suspect through political pressure from the Chinese government) they didnt sound the warning bell till it had become a trans national disease.

 then they went to the other extreme and started being hysterically over the top about what should be done, whilst ignoring that their recommended actions would be at least as harmful to most people as the disease. allowing that the spread of the disease was largely their fault in the first place

now they have flipped the other way, (possibly because of politic pressure from the american and other western governments), and are significantly down playing it

there are serious lesson after all this is sorted out, that WHO are not fit for purpose


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## Gerry Seymour (Jun 10, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> Follow up discussion indicates it’s not quite that simple.  Ignore social distancing and the wearing of masks at your peril.
> 
> Are asymptomatic people spreading the coronavirus? A WHO official’s words spark confusion, debate


Yep. An over-simplified statement that left some confusion.


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## Gerry Seymour (Jun 10, 2020)

dvcochran said:


> Yep, even within WHO itself, who know what the hell to believe? I have lost a good amount of respect for this entity.


The science at the moment is inexact, evolving, and confined to using pretty broad ranges, so nobody (WHO included) is able to give accurate, un-nuanced statements. It’s the sounds bytes that make them seem confused.


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## jobo (Jun 10, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> The science at the moment is inexact, evolving, and confined to using pretty broad ranges, so nobody (WHO included) is able to give accurate, un-nuanced statements. It’s the sounds bytes that make them seem confused.


 its not an emerging science, the science is very well established, and they have near six months worth of data,,, the problem seems to lye with gathering and interpreting that data or more exact, choosing which data to gather and how that can be done

IF and its a big if, some of the data ive seen recently is true, that 80% of people are asymptomatic and  few of those are ( highly) contagious and the seriously ill / dead % is circa one % of the symptomatic population and that one % is mostly made up of a discrete demographic, then the whole strategy was wrong, not over protective wrong but dangerously under protective for the at risk population wrong, and they really should know which if any of those are so by now

a system of data recovery that only gets to the nuts and bolts after the pandemic has passed, and people who could have been saved are dead and untold economic damage has been done, is woefully inadequate. and whose fault would that be, ?


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## Gerry Seymour (Jun 10, 2020)

jobo said:


> its not an emerging science, the science is very well established, and they have near six months worth of data,,, the problem seems to lye with gathering and interpreting that data or more exact, choosing which data to gather and how that can be done
> 
> IF and its a big if, some of the data ive seen recently is true, that 80% of people are asymptomatic and  few of those are ( highly) contagious and the seriously ill / dead % is circa one % of the symptomatic population and that one % is mostly made up of a discrete demographic, then the whole strategy was wrong, not over protective wrong but dangerously under protective for the at risk population wrong, and they really should know which if any of those are so by now
> 
> a system of data recovery that only gets to the nuts and bolts after the pandemic has passed, and people who could have been saved are dead and untold economic damage has been done, is woefully inadequate. and whose fault would that be, ?


6 months of data isn’t as much as you seem to think. Those data are not consistent in categorization,  methodology, selection, and other areas. They are quite incomplete. 

Science around this particular virus is less than a year old. That’s really new in scientific terms, and well within the period you’d expect to see a lot of new discovery, conflicting data, and much else you attribute to incompetence. 

There is much that cannot be known without much wider testing, more time, and more data.


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## jobo (Jun 10, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> 6 months of data isn’t as much as you seem to think. Those data are not consistent in categorization,  methodology, selection, and other areas. They are quite incomplete.
> 
> Science around this particular virus is less than a year old. That’s really new in scientific terms, and well within the period you’d expect to see a lot of new discovery, conflicting data, and much else you attribute to incompetence.
> 
> There is much that cannot be known without much wider testing, more time, and more data.


 6 months of data and 400,000 deaths is 6 months of data about 400,000 deaths, that exactly what i think it is, how can it be less ?


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## Gerry Seymour (Jun 10, 2020)

jobo said:


> 6 months of data and 400,000 deaths is 6 months of data about 400,000 deaths, that exactly what i think it is, how can it be less ?


That’s a description of a time period and number of deaths, not a description of an amount of data.


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## jobo (Jun 10, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> That’s a description of a time period and number of deaths, not a description of an amount of data.


well yes it is, they are both a description of an amount of data or are you saying that time of 6 and deaths of 400,000 isnt an amount or data ???????????????


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## Gerry Seymour (Jun 11, 2020)

jobo said:


> well yes it is, they are both a description of an amount of data or are you saying that time of 6 and deaths of 400,000 isnt an amount or data ???????????????


Yes. That's precisely what I'm saying.

Having spent a fair amount of my career doing data analysis, I have some understanding of what goes on with data. You're talking about a moderate amount of data points with the deaths, but there's not much consistent data collected between those (medical data isn't consistent between countries nor often within a country, and is also inherently full of uncontrolled variables). The 6 months is largely irrelevant as a descriptor. In this case, 6 months worth of data on the progression of the virus gives a reasonable start for analyzing transmissibility and virus life cycle in the wild. But that data is also inherently incomplete and highly variable, so you're left with a relatively small core of points that can be effectively analyzed to any level of certainty. 

All of that, along with the fact that there's no magical feed directly to any one organization - each country (in the US, each state - probably similar issue in some other countries) is gathering data, so that's a bunch of similar, but not identical data collections. They won't all collect the same bits, nor call them the same thing, nor use the same classifications, nor store them in the same format, nor have the same ability to store and transmit them.

Deeper analysis (to attempt to control for confounding variables) takes quite a bit of time. The data that is now available will mean more in a year, because it simply takes time. And by that time, we'll also have more data.

But if you can do better than the data experts, go for it.


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## jobo (Jun 11, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> Yes. That's precisely what I'm saying.
> 
> Having spent a fair amount of my career doing data analysis, I have some understanding of what goes on with data. You're talking about a moderate amount of data points with the deaths, but there's not much consistent data collected between those (medical data isn't consistent between countries nor often within a country, and is also inherently full of uncontrolled variables). The 6 months is largely irrelevant as a descriptor. In this case, 6 months worth of data on the progression of the virus gives a reasonable start for analyzing transmissibility and virus life cycle in the wild. But that data is also inherently incomplete and highly variable, so you're left with a relatively small core of points that can be effectively analyzed to any level of certainty.
> 
> ...


id hesitate to call my self a data expert, but statistical analyse was a component in both of my post grad qualification and was a big part of what my employer thought i was doing whilst i was mostly sat in coffee shops

this pandemic is not a surprise its been predicted and modelled and drilled for decades.

so knowing IT was coming, even if you dont know specifically was IT was or when it was coming. that gives you the imperative to consider what data should be collected and by what means and by who and to put measures in place for that to be so

The very fact that different govenments set off on different data trails is a clear indecation of the lack of planning

however even with that issue, knowing what data you want and how the data being provided differs from that allows you to weight the data.

so for instance, the UK govenment were collecting data from hospitals whilst not collecting data from the ''community'', this excluded a significant number of cases from the figures, in the fact the death toll in old peoples homes at least equalled the death toll in hospitals AND most importantly complete changed the demographic of the deaths. a simple question Does the data included care homes ? should have been asked

Now WHO should have insisted on accurate data collection( they should have insisted on the data they had previously agreed with governments should be provided) and if not forth coming should at the very least have viewed the data as very suspect and have included a significant margin of error in the modelling to account for this, you dont wait till the end to account for variables that should be built in to your modelling software

bBUT they had 6 months of data, 400.000 deaths and 200 countries, that more than enough data to get an accurate picture of who the at risk groups were, with some data manipulation to account for variables as above


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## dvcochran (Jun 11, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> Yes. That's precisely what I'm saying.
> 
> Having spent a fair amount of my career doing data analysis, I have some understanding of what goes on with data. You're talking about a moderate amount of data points with the deaths, but there's not much consistent data collected between those (medical data isn't consistent between countries nor often within a country, and is also inherently full of uncontrolled variables). The 6 months is largely irrelevant as a descriptor. In this case, 6 months worth of data on the progression of the virus gives a reasonable start for analyzing transmissibility and virus life cycle in the wild. But that data is also inherently incomplete and highly variable, so you're left with a relatively small core of points that can be effectively analyzed to any level of certainty.
> 
> ...



I fully agree with what you say. Data mining is a true term in the idea that you do not know what you may find. And while you are generally looking for a certain thing(s) you usually test/inspect/review everything. Not always but usually. It may take time to realize something you have been throwing away has value. When you get flooded with data from numerous sources this is a very tall order.  I think this is exactly what is happening right not. Being afraid to throw away any data and trying to figure out what is and is not important. 
Time and experience are huge assets in this effort.

Since the CDC and WHO are at the top level of this analysis they are, or should be best positioned to aggregate the data into useful pieces. Frankly, I am not certain if my frustration is with them or the medias never ending rhetoric and twisting of information. 
I really appreciate how our Aussie friends government simply said "we don't know" when they said to expect a rise in cases as their society returns to normal activity. Simple and factual. Most everything else is minutia in the still unknown details, useless to the average working person.


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## dvcochran (Jun 11, 2020)

jobo said:


> id hesitate to call my self a data expert, but statistical analyse was a component in both of my post grad qualification and was a big part of what my employer thought i was doing whilst i was mostly sat in coffee shops
> 
> this pandemic is not a surprise its been predicted and modelled and drilled for decades.
> 
> ...


If it were only that easy. There are SO many influencers affecting the data gathering process. The most prominent to me are the deaths being classified as COVID related that are not due to the financial gains of the classification and such.


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## _Simon_ (Jun 11, 2020)

A man at the protest in Melbourne developed symptoms 24 hours after the protest. He's tested positive. Estimated there were about 10,000 people there on the Saturday. All quite tightly packed in there. Oh boy...


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## jobo (Jun 11, 2020)

dvcochran said:


> If it were only that easy. There are SO many influencers affecting the data gathering process. The most prominent to me are the deaths being classified as COVID related that are not due to the financial gains of the classification and such.


well simple isnt the word, data collection and aylisis is anything but,,,, BUT there a data collection companies who can predict the out come of elections to remarkable accuracy with only a few thousand data points, coz they understand the variables and account for them. analysing the data is the easy part., analysing  the data to ensure you have accurate data is tricky

what they clearly needed was EXPERTS, what they got was anything but. they should have passed the whole thing to gallop to do, if they didn't ( and they clearly didn't) have that expertise in house.

you were warning about the over diagnosis of cases two months ago, did any one tell, WHO ?


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## Headhunter (Jun 11, 2020)

_Simon_ said:


> A man at the protest in Melbourne developed symptoms 24 hours after the protest. He's tested positive. Estimated there were about 10,000 people there on the Saturday. All quite tightly packed in there. Oh boy...


Human stupidity. You can’t beat it


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## jobo (Jun 11, 2020)

_Simon_ said:


> A man at the protest in Melbourne developed symptoms 24 hours after the protest. He's tested positive. Estimated there were about 10,000 people there on the Saturday. All quite tightly packed in there. Oh boy...


 well 24 hours is on the short side for developing symptoms( its seems) so there is a fair good change he had contracted the virus before that


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## _Simon_ (Jun 11, 2020)

jobo said:


> well 24 hours is on the short side for developing symptoms( its seems) so there is a fair good change he had contracted the virus before that


Yeah they seem to think he didn't contract it at the protest like you said, but that he was potentially infectious at the time if he had it. Who knows..


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## dvcochran (Jun 12, 2020)

jobo said:


> well simple isnt the word, data collection and aylisis is anything but,,,, BUT there a data collection companies who can predict the out come of elections to remarkable accuracy with only a few thousand data points, coz they understand the variables and account for them. analysing the data is the easy part., analysing  the data to ensure you have accurate data is tricky
> 
> what they clearly needed was EXPERTS, what they got was anything but. they should have passed the whole thing to gallop to do, if they didn't ( and they clearly didn't) have that expertise in house.
> 
> you were warning about the over diagnosis of cases two months ago, did any one tell, WHO ?


GALLUP is primarily a political analytics company. It would be like using a rock to analyze a persons blood flow. 
I am not certain they have the right tools in their toolbox.


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## jobo (Jun 12, 2020)

dvcochran said:


> GALLUP is primarily a political analytics company. It would be like using a rock to analyze a persons blood flow.
> I am not certain they have the right tools in their toolbox.


gallop are data gathering and analysis experts, ask them to design a system of data gathering that represents reality in any field and they will do so

then and only then give that data to the scientist to do the analysis, it doesn't matter how brilliant you are, if the data is inaccurate your projections will also be such, gathering data from a small population under your control ( like a medical study) is one thing, gather data from a large population you will never see is quite another skill entirely


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## dvcochran (Jun 12, 2020)

jobo said:


> gallop are data gathering and analysis experts, ask them to design a system of data gathering that represents reality in any field and they will do so
> 
> then and only then give that data to the scientist to do the analysis, it doesn't matter how brilliant you are, if the data is inaccurate your projections will also be such


True, but they have to know what to values to analyze and how to weight/score the values. This is where the unknowns are.
 I think there may be some "paralysis by analysis" going on.


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## jobo (Jun 12, 2020)

dvcochran said:


> True, but they have to know what to values to analyze and how to weight/score the values. This is where the unknowns are.
> I think there may be some "paralysis by analysis" going on.


of course they do, give them five years to sort it out, which isnt difficult for a pandemic WHO themselves have been predicting for 40 years

my issue is the complete lack of preparation for a predictable event, not that they could have done better, once they reached the point of being in the middle of something they had complexly failed to prepare for

even then gallop would probably have done better, it couldn't be worse


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## Gerry Seymour (Jun 12, 2020)

jobo said:


> gallop are data gathering and analysis experts, ask them to design a system of data gathering that represents reality in any field and they will do so
> 
> then and only then give that data to the scientist to do the analysis, it doesn't matter how brilliant you are, if the data is inaccurate your projections will also be such, gathering data from a small population under your control ( like a medical study) is one thing, gather data from a large population you will never see is quite another skill entirely


They could do that. It'd probably take them significantly longer than 6 months to put it into action.


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## jobo (Jun 12, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> They could do that. It'd probably take them significantly longer than 6 months to put it into action.


see above, they had forty years to prepared if someone had bother to ask them how it could be done and to get ready to do it

even with no notice they have abilities to quickly find a representative population, a quick telephone survey of 5,000 people would have given a much more accurate indication of the spread of the disease than anybody actually has

once the law of big numbers is enacted you can start making good projections


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## Gerry Seymour (Jun 12, 2020)

jobo said:


> see above, they had forty years to prepared if someone had bother to ask them how it could be done and to get ready to do it
> 
> even with no notice they have abilities to quickly find a representative population, a quick telephone survey of 5,000 people would have given a much more accurate indication of the spread of the disease than anybody actually has
> 
> once the law of big numbers is enacted you can start making good projections


They haven't had 40 years of access to this disjointed data. Remember that the WHO doesn't have the luxury of mandating how data is collected.


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## Flying Crane (Jun 12, 2020)

A bunch of states in the US are showing spikes now in infection rates and hospitalizations.  Some areas are becoming quite alarmed at the trend, they could be in for a bad time pretty soon.  The timing of these spikes is consistent with their reopening history and the mass gatherings during Memorial Day weekend. 

Disregard social distancing and mask wearing at your peril.  It’s not a good time to get back into activities that bring people into close proximity and get them all breathing hard with exertion.  This virus is still very much with us, it has not gone away.  For some bizarre reason that escapes me, our nation has just gotten bored of it all and decided to carry on as if everything is awesome.  Make-believe can be fun, I guess.  But the deaths are very real.


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## jobo (Jun 12, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> They haven't had 40 years of access to this disjointed data. Remember that the WHO doesn't have the luxury of mandating how data is collected.


they have had v40 years to prepare and WHO has the ability to specify and agree with governments in advance which data will be collected and how

If your saying that this has been done, then show some indication of this, if they never bothered to agree in advance its indicative of systemic failure to think it through


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## jobo (Jun 12, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> A bunch of states in the US are showing spikes now in infection rates and hospitalizations.  Some areas are becoming quite alarmed at the trend, they could be in for a bad time pretty soon.  The timing of these spikes is consistent with their reopening history and the mass gatherings during Memorial Day weekend.
> 
> Disregard social distancing and mask wearing at your peril.  It’s not a good time to get back into activities that bring people into close proximity and get them all breathing hard with exertion.  This virus is still very much with us, it has not gone away.  For some bizarre reason that escapes me, our nation has just gotten bored of it all and decided to carry on as if everything is awesome.  Make-believe can be fun, I guess.  But the deaths are very real.


 the latest figure for the uk, if you can take any notice at all ? is that infection rate is one in 1700 people, thats close to 0.005%, im not convinced that it was ever much greater than that, but as nobody was measuring we may never know


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## Gerry Seymour (Jun 12, 2020)

jobo said:


> they have had v40 years to prepare and WHO has the ability to specify and agree with governments in advance which data will be collected and how
> 
> If your saying that this has been done, then show some indication of this, if they never bothered to agree in advance its indicative of systemic failure to think it through


They can provide specifications. They have no power to require compliance. Countries mostly gather information for their own purposes.


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## jobo (Jun 12, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> They can provide specifications. They have no power to require compliance. Countries mostly gather information for their own purposes.


and if they havent issue a specification, then they have been negligent, if they have a d government  have ignored it then they have been negligent, either way someone has caused thousands of unnecessary deaths, that is def8netly teue in this country, probebly elsewhere


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## Gerry Seymour (Jun 12, 2020)

jobo said:


> the latest figure for the uk, if you can take any notice at all ? is that infection rate is one in 1700 people, thats close to 0.005%, im not convinced that it was ever much greater than that, but as nobody was measuring we may never know


Given the mortality rate in the UK (perh Johns Hopkins) is 62.21 per 100K population (.06221%) that seems high for an ongoing infection rate of.0588% (1/1700) - it suggests a higher mortality rate among the infected than I'd understood. 

Please check my math on that - I did it in a hurry, and one or the other of us messed up the percentages on 1/1700.


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## jobo (Jun 12, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> Given the mortality rate in the UK (perh Johns Hopkins) is 62.21 per 100K population (.06221%) that seems high for an ongoing infection rate of.0588% (1/1700) - it suggests a higher mortality rate among the infected than I'd understood.
> 
> Please check my math on that - I did it in a hurry, and one or the other of us messed up the percentages on 1/1700.


well just to ram home the fault, that because they targeted the wrong groups, locking health peple up, whilst allowing , no additional  protection for care homes and vulrable adults in the communit, y, which if they had halg decent data they would have tealised very quickly

did it in my head so not impissible im out


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## Gerry Seymour (Jun 12, 2020)

jobo said:


> well just to ram home the fault, that because they targeted the wrong groups, locking health peple up, whilst allowing , no additional  protection for care homes and vulrable adults in the communit, y, which if they had halg decent data they would have tealised very quickly
> 
> did it in my head so not impissible im out


I think a lot of countries got caught more flat-footed on this than we'd like them to. Similar situation with care homes here.


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## Kung Fu Wang (Jun 12, 2020)

I find it's very funny to do partner training with distance.

- Both of us have face mask on.
- We keep 6 feet apart.
- When my opponent punch me, I block his invisible arm in the thin air.
- He grabs my invisible blocking arm in the thin air, and ...

I can almost feel that I'll going to develop "no touch MA".


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## _Simon_ (Jun 20, 2020)

We've had massive spikes in our state, ever since the new easing of restrictions, recently there's been a total of 25 new cases recorded in the state today, up from 13 on Friday, 18 on Thursday and 21 on Wednesday. Prior to this it was single digits and pretty low.

We were planning to ease restrictions on Monday but that's been delayed and we're now back to tighter restrictions :s

From midnight tomorrow until midnight on Sunday, July 12, gatherings in peoples' homes can include no more people than the residents and up to five guests. It was 20 people recently. Cafes, restaurants etc were going to go from 20 to 50 patrons allowed but that's delayed too.

More than half the cases have been through family-to-family transmission, people who were sick that still went to large family gatherings, and also people still going to work when sick.

We're in for a ride... :s


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## Gerry Seymour (Jun 20, 2020)

_Simon_ said:


> We've had massive spikes in our state, ever since the new easing of restrictions, recently there's been a total of 25 new cases recorded in the state today, up from 13 on Friday, 18 on Thursday and 21 on Wednesday. Prior to this it was single digits and pretty low.
> 
> We were planning to ease restrictions on Monday but that's been delayed and we're now back to tighter restrictions :s
> 
> ...


There's an uptick in our state, too. Not that dramatic (though it looks like some other US states may be headed that way), but it's worrying. Folks are starting to have gatherings again - my mom's having a Father's Day gathering for my step-dad, but we won't be going. If it's anything like a normal family gathering, there will be something like 15 people there, and that still seems a bad idea. And my mom is immuno-compromised (liver transplant, so on immunosuppressants). She really shouldn't be doing this.


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## _Simon_ (Jun 20, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> There's an uptick in our state, too. Not that dramatic (though it looks like some other US states may be headed that way), but it's worrying. Folks are starting to have gatherings again - my mom's having a Father's Day gathering for my step-dad, but we won't be going. If it's anything like a normal family gathering, there will be something like 15 people there, and that still seems a bad idea. And my mom is immuno-compromised (liver transplant, so on immunosuppressants). She really shouldn't be doing this.


Yeah wow... I knew it would be inevitable that there would be increases in breakouts, but I wonder at what point it becomes out of control. Good call not going... but yeah, hoping your family is safe.


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## jobo (Jun 20, 2020)

_Simon_ said:


> Yeah wow... I knew it would be inevitable that there would be increases in breakouts, but I wonder at what point it becomes out of control. Good call not going... but yeah, hoping your family is safe.


as ive said several times before, the infection rate is a very poor indicator of how much of a problem there is, you really need to wait a week or two and see if the seriously ill /dead rate increases markedly, theres a fairly good chance that most of those are are particularly vulnerable have all ready been seriously ill. as it only really advisedly effects a very small % of the population, each serious case reduces those left to be infected, so the death should reduce even if infections rise, its also a fair assumption that those with serious immune/respiratory problems havent been out pulling statues down, or or that the young people who have dont live with grand ma


more testing means more confirm infections, its always going to increase and as ive also said several times viruses evolve to become less likely to make you seriously ill, as a general rule, , a state of play that can only be seen with some time


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## Gerry Seymour (Jun 20, 2020)

_Simon_ said:


> Yeah wow... I knew it would be inevitable that there would be increases in breakouts, but I wonder at what point it becomes out of control. Good call not going... but yeah, hoping your family is safe.


An interesting progression I hadn't expected, but which apparently was predicted by epidemiological models: the virus is progressing in more and more rural areas. Apparently it's easier to start in urban areas because of the denser population, but an article I didn't finish reading (had to go pick up an order) reported that rural areas are actually more vulnerable to the virus. The part I read seemed NOT to be saying it was about less medical treatment, but perhaps it's about it being harder to get good testing set up in those areas. In any case, some of the highest growth rates now are in areas with smaller cities and more rural population. Unfortunately, that describes our area quite well.


----------



## Gerry Seymour (Jun 20, 2020)

jobo said:


> as ive said several times before, the infection rate is a very poor indicator of how much of a problem there is, you really need to wait a week or two and see if the seriously ill /dead rate increases markedly, theres a fairly good chance that most of those are are particularly vulnerable have all ready been seriously ill. as it only really advisedly effects a very small % of the population, each serious case reduces those left to be infected, so the death should reduce even if infections rise, its also a fair assumption that those with serious immune/respiratory problems havent been out pulling statues down, or or that the young people who have dont live with grand ma
> 
> 
> more testing means more confirm infections, its always going to increase and as ive also said several times viruses evolve to become less likely to make you seriously ill, as a general rule, , a state of play that can only be seen with some time


In several US states, hospitalization rates are rising (as are the numbers of folks needing ventilators). I didn't expect that, since the demographics seem to be shifting - more young folks as a proportion of the infected.


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## jobo (Jun 20, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> In several US states, hospitalization rates are rising (as are the numbers of folks needing ventilators). I didn't expect that, since the demographics seem to be shifting - more young folks as a proportion of the infected.


but its only just hit some states, it still the first wave of infections rather than some new thing


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## Gerry Seymour (Jun 20, 2020)

jobo said:


> but its only just hit some states, it still the first wave of infections rather than some new thing


It probably is the first wave finally starting to crest. Not sure what that has to do with what I said.


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## _Simon_ (Jun 20, 2020)

jobo said:


> as ive said several times before, the infection rate is a very poor indicator of how much of a problem there is, you really need to wait a week or two and see if the seriously ill /dead rate increases markedly,




This is the tail end of a two or three weeks of eased restrictions.


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## _Simon_ (Jun 20, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> An interesting progression I hadn't expected, but which apparently was predicted by epidemiological models: the virus is progressing in more and more rural areas. Apparently it's easier to start in urban areas because of the denser population, but an article I didn't finish reading (had to go pick up an order) reported that rural areas are actually more vulnerable to the virus. The part I read seemed NOT to be saying it was about less medical treatment, but perhaps it's about it being harder to get good testing set up in those areas. In any case, some of the highest growth rates now are in areas with smaller cities and more rural population. Unfortunately, that describes our area quite well.


Yeah wow that is interesting.. makes sense for sure..


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## jobo (Jun 21, 2020)

_Simon_ said:


> This is the tail end of a two or three weeks of eased restrictions.


but the two are not necessarily cause and effect, The US has very much the same deaths per million as Sweden and Sweden did practically no lock down at all by comparison. SO the jury is still out on if that made any difference at all and therefore if relaxing it will make any difference at all


----------



## _Simon_ (Jun 21, 2020)

jobo said:


> but the two are not necessarily cause and effect, The US has very much the same deaths per million as Sweden and Sweden did practically no lock down at all by comparison. SO the jury is still out on if that made any difference at all and therefore if relaxing it will make any difference at all



I said there'd be breakouts, you said you need to wait few weeks to see if the increase is significant. I said yeah recent numbers are after the weeks of restrictions being eased. You said oh but they're not necessarily related.

... am I missing something here?

But yeah, it's very hard to put cause and effect. I've been keeping track, and the numbers certainly dwindled very low when we were in heavy restrictions. But of course, many MANY factors at play here, who decided to go get tested etc


----------



## jobo (Jun 21, 2020)

_Simon_ said:


> I said there'd be breakouts, you said you need to wait few weeks to see if the increase is significant. I said yeah recent numbers are after the weeks of restrictions being eased. You said oh but they're not necessarily related.
> 
> ... am I missing something here?
> 
> But yeah, it's very hard to put cause and effect. I've been keeping track, and the numbers certainly dwindled very low when we were in heavy restrictions. But of course, many MANY factors at play here, who decided to go get tested etc


because your not being clear are you saying, which is how i read it, that cases have spiked or that deaths have spiked, if its the former you need to wait, if its the latter it may not be directly tied to the easing of restrictions. either way your suggesting  causation that may not actually be there


----------



## _Simon_ (Jun 21, 2020)

jobo said:


> because your not being clear are you saying, which is how i read it, that cases have spiked or that deaths have spiked, if its the former you need to wait, if its the latter it may not be directly tied to the easing of restrictions. either way your suggesting  causation that may not actually be there



Thought I was pretty clear when I said cases have spiked.. just people who were infected (ie people who had tested positive).

And I'm pretty sure I didn't suggest it, but it's the data I got from other sources specific to my state. Restrictions eased -> increase in cases in weeks to follow. Just a sequence, but a very significant increase in numbers.

We could play the causation/no causation game to the nth degree, just recalling what's going on here. If that's cool brah.


----------



## jobo (Jun 22, 2020)

_Simon_ said:


> Thought I was pretty clear when I said cases have spiked.. just people who were infected (ie people who had tested positive).
> 
> And I'm pretty sure I didn't suggest it, but it's the data I got from other sources specific to my state. Restrictions eased -> increase in cases in weeks to follow. Just a sequence, but a very significant increase in numbers.
> 
> We could play the causation/no causation game to the nth degree, just recalling what's going on here. If that's cool brah.


----------



## jobo (Jun 22, 2020)

_Simon_ said:


> Thought I was pretty clear when I said cases have spiked.. just people who were infected (ie people who had tested positive).
> 
> And I'm pretty sure I didn't suggest it, but it's the data I got from other sources specific to my state. Restrictions eased -> increase in cases in weeks to follow. Just a sequence, but a very significant increase in numbers.
> 
> We could play the causation/no causation game to the nth degree, just recalling what's going on here. If that's cool brah.


 US death rate continuing to fall, whilst cases are stable/rising. so little correlation between number of cases and number of death


----------



## Monkey Turned Wolf (Jun 22, 2020)

jobo said:


> US death rate continuing to fall, whilst cases are stable/rising. so little correlation between number of cases and number of death View attachment 22923View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923


That's something that's been more predicted. As we get more testing done, we can know the actual relationship between number of cases vs. number of deaths (ie: active death rates), rather than only testing those who are ill/hospitalized. So the original hypothesis was the death rates would remain the same/decrease slightly while confirmed cases increased significantly but not majorly, if COVID itself followed the expected curve.

The big concern is if the actual number of cases (rather than confirmed cases) increases majorly, since the actual death rate (rather than confirmed death rate) remains the same.


----------



## jobo (Jun 22, 2020)

Monkey Turned Wolf said:


> That's something that's been more predicted. As we get more testing done, we can know the actual relationship between number of cases vs. number of deaths (ie: active death rates), rather than only testing those who are ill/hospitalized. So the original hypothesis was the death rates would remain the same/decrease slightly while confirmed cases increased significantly but not majorly, if COVID itself followed the expected curve.
> 
> The big concern is if the actual number of cases (rather than confirmed cases) increases majorly, since the actual death rate (rather than confirmed death rate) remains the same.


but the deaths havent decreased @ SLIGHTLY@ they have plummeted by two thirds


----------



## _Simon_ (Jun 22, 2020)

jobo said:


> US death rate continuing to fall, whilst cases are stable/rising. so little correlation between number of cases and number of death View attachment 22923View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923


Cool, but again... I was talking about cases rising, not deaths or correlations/causations between things....


----------



## jobo (Jun 22, 2020)

_Simon_ said:


> Cool, but again... I was talking about cases rising, not deaths or correlations/causations between things....


yea, but im saying cases rising is of no importance at all, if the death rate continues to fall, or remains stable

im also saying that your implication that the relaxing of restrictions has given rise to the increase in cases may not be factually true and would only be a concern if the restriction had actually been effective in reducing the spread of the virus and therefore deaths and that is far from proven, in the UK, now we are getting an idea of the demographic of the seriously ill/deaths, the lock down is looking less and less effective and quite possibly counter productive


----------



## _Simon_ (Jun 22, 2020)

jobo said:


> yea, but im saying cases rising is of no importance at all, if the death rate continues to fall, or remains stable
> 
> im also saying that your implication that the relaxing of restrictions has given rise to the increase in cases may not be factually true and would only be a concern if the restriction had actually been effective in reducing the spread of the virus and therefore deaths and that is far from proven, in the UK, now we are getting an idea of the demographic of the seriously ill/deaths, the lock down is looking less and less effective and quite possibly counter productive



I'd say the cases rising is pretty crucial to look at... just because them people don't die they can spread it others who CAN die easily.

The data I've seen, cases dropped very low from when we went into lockdown. Upon restrictions being eased, the weeks that followed, numbers gradually increased, getting to double digits consistently.

No I'm not implying anything, but that's the state at hand. Of course nothing may be "factually true", you're sounding like some certain philosophers XD.

Just presenting what's happening, and my thought (just a thought, not an "absolute concrete factual scientifically backed 100% accurate statement) is that once restrictions were eased, people thought it was all over, and acted as per normal (hence they've found family to family transmissions to be responsible for more than half the increases), and it spread like wildfire.


----------



## jobo (Jun 22, 2020)

_Simon_ said:


> I'd say the cases rising is pretty crucial to look at... just because them people don't die they can spread it others who CAN die easily.
> 
> The data I've seen, cases dropped very low from when we went into lockdown. Upon restrictions being eased, the weeks that followed, numbers gradually increased, getting to double digits consistently.
> 
> ...


 but we have just gone in a circle, there is currently no correlation between the rise in infections and the number of deaths, in fact just the opposite is true,just parroting that more cases means more deaths when the figures show otherwise, isnt reflecting reality


----------



## Gerry Seymour (Jun 22, 2020)

jobo said:


> US death rate continuing to fall, whilst cases are stable/rising. so little correlation between number of cases and number of death View attachment 22923View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923 View attachment 22923


Take specific areas out, and those numbers tell a different story. The US is a huge area, and needs to be viewed as a set of regions for numbers to mean much. State-by-state is probably the easiest clear picture - similar to viewing Europe country-by-country.


----------



## Gerry Seymour (Jun 22, 2020)

Monkey Turned Wolf said:


> That's something that's been more predicted. As we get more testing done, we can know the actual relationship between number of cases vs. number of deaths (ie: active death rates), rather than only testing those who are ill/hospitalized. So the original hypothesis was the death rates would remain the same/decrease slightly while confirmed cases increased significantly but not majorly, if COVID itself followed the expected curve.
> 
> The big concern is if the actual number of cases (rather than confirmed cases) increases majorly, since the actual death rate (rather than confirmed death rate) remains the same.


Both hospitalizations and positive test rates are on the rise in most areas. Those are the numbers least likely to be skewed upward by increased testing. In fact, it would be more reasonable for increased testing (beyond likely symptoms) to decrease the positive test rate.


----------



## jobo (Jun 22, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> Take specific areas out, and those numbers tell a different story. The US is a huge area, and needs to be viewed as a set of regions for numbers to mean much. State-by-state is probably the easiest clear picture - similar to viewing Europe country-by-country.


you can break every country down into what ever sized regions fit your narrative, as it happens its ONE country


----------



## Gerry Seymour (Jun 22, 2020)

jobo said:


> you can break every country down into what ever sized regions fit your narrative, as it happens its ONE country


That’s arbitrary. But you’ve shown before you don’t quite understand how data analysis works.


----------



## skribs (Jun 22, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> Both hospitalizations and positive test rates are on the rise in most areas. Those are the numbers least likely to be skewed upward by increased testing. In fact, it would be more reasonable for increased testing (beyond likely symptoms) to decrease the positive test rate.


Unless a lot of people are asymptomatic.


----------



## Gerry Seymour (Jun 22, 2020)

skribs said:


> Unless a lot of people are asymptomatic.


Even then, positive rates (the % of tests that come back positive) should be higher among those with related symptoms.


----------



## jobo (Jun 23, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> That’s arbitrary. But you’ve shown before you don’t quite understand how data analysis works.


i know how to manipulate data to get the answer you want, which is what your doing, you decided that this pandemic was a major threat to you, yours and mankind in general since early on and have been selectively quoting data to make it seem far worse than it is ever since

world wide the death rate from people actually ill with the disease has staid at less than one  %, thats one % of a very small section of the public, in america thats 1 % of circa 2 million, which is then statically negligible out of a 300,000000 population
even more those deaths are largely made up of the aged and or other wise in firmed, it isnt  and never was a serious threat to most of the population,

id air my views that many of the lock down measures have been largely counter productive in that they have failed to protect the vulnerable whilst increasing the infection in the population as a whole, that will i believe be shown to be the case, certainly in the UK, probably in a lot of other places when the public enquires and people suing the government for neglect actually come to fruition

the death rate is falling because a large number of those particularly vulnerable are already dead, if its increasing in discrete clusters thats because they still are not protecting the vulnerable in that area, they wernt when the lock down was in operation, it makes little difference if they stop the lock down or not


----------



## Gerry Seymour (Jun 23, 2020)

jobo said:


> i know how to manipulate data to get the answer you want, which is what your doing, you decided that this pandemic was a major threat to you, yours and mankind in general since early on and have been selectively quoting data to make it seem far worse than it is ever since
> 
> world wide the death rate from people actually ill with the disease has staid at less than one  %, thats one % of a very small section of the public, in america thats 1 % of circa 2 million, which is then statically negligible out of a 300,000000 population
> even more those deaths are largely made up of the aged and or other wise in firmed, it isnt  and never was a serious threat to most of the population,
> ...


There’s an opposite problem to what you suggest I’m doing. Bad news can be buried in larger batches of data. One division of a company can do well enough the company profits, though all other divisions lose money. The truth isn’t that the company is doing well, because that buried the problems growing in many areas. 

That’s what you’re doing g by insisting on covering bad news regions with the gains made in other regions. Use data to find truth, rather than to support your narrative.


----------



## jobo (Jun 23, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> There’s an opposite problem to what you suggest I’m doing. Bad news can be buried in larger batches of data. One division of a company can do well enough the company profits, though all other divisions lose money. The truth isn’t that the company is doing well, because that buried the problems growing in many areas.
> 
> That’s what you’re doing g by insisting on covering bad news regions with the gains made in other regions. Use data to find truth, rather than to support your narrative.


any one dieing is bad news those deaths are being reported, no one is hiding them

most of the deaths were preventable, no one is actually broadcasting that as yet, though there are rumblings in the UK, that truth will also out in the fullness of time, though im sure they would like to cover it up, but big data batches will show that to be true, small data batches as you know can be very misleading


----------



## JowGaWolf (Jun 23, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> Both hospitalizations and positive test rates are on the rise in most areas. Those are the numbers least likely to be skewed upward by increased testing.


This doesn't even factor in for me.  A good sign would be higher testing and fewer people testing positive.  I know lately the phrase has been " more people are testing positive because we are doing more testing."  My look at it is simply. "more people are testing positive because more people are getting it."   New Zealand does a large amount of testings and they recently discover 3 new cases out of the entire country.  So I try to remind myself the reason their are more cases is because more people are catching it.


----------



## Gerry Seymour (Jun 23, 2020)

jobo said:


> any one dieing is bad news those deaths are being reported, no one is hiding them
> 
> most of the deaths were preventable, no one is actually broadcasting that as yet, though there are rumblings in the UK, that truth will also out in the fullness of time, though im sure they would like to cover it up, but big data batches will show that to be true, small data batches as you know can be very misleading


Man, you have no idea.


----------



## jobo (Jun 23, 2020)

JowGaWolf said:


> This doesn't even factor in for me.  A good sign would be higher testing and fewer people testing positive.  I know lately the phrase has been " more people are testing positive because we are doing more testing."  My look at it is simply. "more people are testing positive because more people are getting it."   New Zealand does a large amount of testings and they recently discover 3 new cases out of the entire country.  So I try to remind myself the reason their are more cases is because more people are catching it.


well no, they found three new people out of however many they tested and as they didnt test the whole country , that was NOT three new cases in the WHOLE country and they wernt NEW cases, they mostly certainly had it  short while to even be picked by the test


----------



## JowGaWolf (Jun 23, 2020)

jobo said:


> well no, they found three new people out of however many they tested and as they didnt test the whole country , that was NOT three new cases in the WHOLE country and they wernt NEW cases, they mostly certainly had it  short while to even be picked by the test


----------



## JowGaWolf (Jun 23, 2020)

jobo said:


> well no, they found three new people out of however many they tested and as they didnt test the whole country , that was NOT three new cases in the WHOLE country and they wernt NEW cases, they mostly certainly had it  short while to even be picked by the test


----------



## jobo (Jun 23, 2020)

JowGaWolf said:


> View attachment 22930


but that doesnt agree with anything you said above, youve not even got the right number for the change


----------



## Gerry Seymour (Jun 24, 2020)

jobo said:


> well no, they found three new people out of however many they tested and as they didnt test the whole country , that was NOT three new cases in the WHOLE country and they wernt NEW cases, they mostly certainly had it  short while to even be picked by the test


Since he also used the phrase “they discover”, then yes, it is for the whole country. 

Now try some argument of substance, rather than retreating to this kind of crap.


----------



## jobo (Jun 24, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> Since he also used the phrase “they discover”, then yes, it is for the whole country.
> 
> Now try some argument of substance, rather than retreating to this kind of crap.


no he used the phrase '' they discovered in the WHOLE country'' that is only an accurate description if the checked the WHOLE country, there no indication on the data he provided that they checked any one( test) let alone 5, 000000 people which they would have needed to do if they checked the WHOLE country

thats like me discovering two pounds down the back of the sofa and saying ive discovered two pounds in the whole country

if i then go on to suggest that these are the only two pounds in the whole country, then that is clearly very miss leading


----------



## dvcochran (Jun 24, 2020)

Does anyone else believe this thing has been around for decades or even centuries? Not until it had been given a name and forced into the center of attention did it matter at all. 
Ulterior motives on multiple fronts? Yes, I truly think so.


----------



## jobo (Jun 24, 2020)

dvcochran said:


> Does anyone else believe this thing has been around for decades or even centuries? Not until it had been given a name and forced into the center of attention did it matter at all.
> Ulterior motives on multiple fronts? Yes, I truly think so.


well covid has been aroind a lobg time, quite possibly for eons, covid 19 has olso been around a good while , but not in a state where it could ibfect humans,  its real


----------



## Gerry Seymour (Jun 24, 2020)

jobo said:


> no he used the phrase '' they discovered in the WHOLE country'' that is only an accurate description if the checked the WHOLE country, there no indication on the data he provided that they checked any one( test) let alone 5, 000000 people which they would have needed to do if they checked the WHOLE country
> 
> thats like me discovering two pounds down the back of the sofa and saying ive discovered two pounds in the whole country
> 
> if i then go on to suggest that these are the only two pounds in the whole country, then that is clearly very miss leading


Language and communication don’t work the way you think they do.


----------



## Gerry Seymour (Jun 24, 2020)

dvcochran said:


> Does anyone else believe this thing has been around for decades or even centuries? Not until it had been given a name and forced into the center of attention did it matter at all.
> Ulterior motives on multiple fronts? Yes, I truly think so.


Upon what do you base that conspiracy theory?


----------



## dvcochran (Jun 24, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> Upon what do you base that conspiracy theory?


The basis is about as prevalent at the one supporting the current theory. 
As much as I loathe doing so, I have to agree with Jobo that the data is/can be made to produce what is desired. 
A sad but true fact.


----------



## dvcochran (Jun 24, 2020)

Straight off the University of Florida .edu site:  COVID-19 The Big Picture article.

*Q: WILL THIS DISEASE BECOME ENDEMIC, IS IT LIKELY TO BECOME SEASONAL?*
I think there is a high likelihood this will become endemic and seasonal. Coronaviruses have probably been endemic and seasonal in human populations for hundreds of years, and we see this type of pattern with the “benign” coronaviruses that cause mild “colds” and other respiratory symptoms.


----------



## jobo (Jun 24, 2020)

dvcochran said:


> Straight off the University of Florida .edu site:  COVID-19 The Big Picture article.
> 
> *Q: WILL THIS DISEASE BECOME ENDEMIC, IS IT LIKELY TO BECOME SEASONAL?*
> I think there is a high likelihood this will become endemic and seasonal. Coronaviruses have probably been endemic and seasonal in human populations for hundreds of years, and we see this type of pattern with the “benign” coronaviruses that cause mild “colds” and other respiratory symptoms.


well yrs, corona virus isnt new,  its this strain that new, it called 19 as it was first identified in 2019, it will probebly become endemic and  ( more ) benign and be around for a long term to come, with have had the herpes virus for 5 milion years


----------



## CB Jones (Jun 24, 2020)

Covid viruses are not new.  Typically, Doctors have just diagnosed them as a respiratory virus and you treat the symptoms and let the virus run its course.

Covid-19 was just more harmful to the elderly and people with underlying conditions.


----------



## Gerry Seymour (Jun 24, 2020)

dvcochran said:


> Straight off the University of Florida .edu site:  COVID-19 The Big Picture article.
> 
> *Q: WILL THIS DISEASE BECOME ENDEMIC, IS IT LIKELY TO BECOME SEASONAL?*
> I think there is a high likelihood this will become endemic and seasonal. Coronaviruses have probably been endemic and seasonal in human populations for hundreds of years, and we see this type of pattern with the “benign” coronaviruses that cause mild “colds” and other respiratory symptoms.


Coronavirus es aren’t new, and haven’t been claimed to be. They also haven’t been this deadly. This isn’t a conspiracy, but a new virus.


----------



## dvcochran (Jun 24, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> Coronavirus es aren’t new, and haven’t been claimed to be. They also haven’t been this deadly. This isn’t a conspiracy, but a new virus.


Paint a white horse grey and it is still a white horse. And yes, Everything around this virus is dripping with conspiracy.


----------



## Gerry Seymour (Jun 25, 2020)

dvcochran said:


> Paint a white horse grey and it is still a white horse. And yes, Everything around this virus is dripping with conspiracy.


So, show some evidence. This is a new coronavirus, hence the frequently used term "novel coronavirus". That's pretty common knowledge. SARS was a similar coronavirus (technically, the novel coronavirus is a SARS virus: SARS-CoV2). The common cold is a coronavirus. "Coronavirus" simply describes the physical structure (it looks like it has a crown).

So, where's the conspiracy? And who, precisely, do you think is killing all these people, and for what reason?


----------



## CB Jones (Jun 25, 2020)

The conspiracy is the handling of it.

There is a lot of money and power given out during the pandemics and disasters.


----------



## Flying Crane (Jun 25, 2020)

CB Jones said:


> The conspiracy is the handling of it.
> 
> There is a lot of money and power given out during the pandemics and disasters.


You mean the utter incompetence displayed by the trump administration?


----------



## Flying Crane (Jun 25, 2020)

CB Jones said:


> The conspiracy is the handling of it.
> 
> There is a lot of money and power given out during the pandemics and disasters.


It begs the question: who do you believe is getting wealthy over the pandemic, and how do you believe it ought to have been handled instead?

Do you agree that this is a dangerous virus that has been and continues to be deadly?


----------



## CB Jones (Jun 25, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> It begs the question: who do you believe is getting wealthy over the pandemic,



The money is in federal reimbursement for state and local agencies and increased budgets for certain departments.  Plus notoriety for certain officials.

This goes on during all large emergency responses.



Flying Crane said:


> Do you agree that this is a dangerous virus that has been and continues to be deadly?



I agree that it is a deadly virus for the elderly and those with underlying conditions.


----------



## Buka (Jun 25, 2020)

The Spanish Flu after the First World War -

_The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States._

Do you guys think we're going to match those numbers?


----------



## Buka (Jun 25, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> You mean the utter incompetence displayed by the trump administration?








We'll always have his lovely eloquence.


----------



## jobo (Jun 25, 2020)

Buka said:


> The Spanish Flu after the First World War -
> 
> _The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States._
> 
> Do you guys think we're going to match those numbers?



the Spanish flu started in america, so another gift you're given to the world


----------



## Gerry Seymour (Jun 25, 2020)

Buka said:


> The Spanish Flu after the First World War -
> 
> _The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States._
> 
> Do you guys think we're going to match those numbers?


Unlikely. At the very least, medicine and knowledge are better today. I’d be interested in hearing from some scientists in a few years (when we know more) how this virus compares to t Spanish flu in infectiousness and mortality.


----------



## Buka (Jun 25, 2020)

Update....sold out.


----------



## dvcochran (Jun 25, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> It begs the question: who do you believe is getting wealthy over the pandemic, and how do you believe it ought to have been handled instead?
> 
> Do you agree that this is a dangerous virus that has been and continues to be deadly?


I will make the claim right now that when we look back 3-5 years from now and look at the REAL numbers the total death rates for 2019-2020 will not be much if any different from most other years. A seasonal spike and nothing more. 
We have had a "new" respiratory illness that under any other circumstance would be considered a rougher year for the flu and life would have gone on a usual. 
Using it as a political tool, a lot of powerful and pissed off liberal politicians have literally changed the economic/social landscape of the whole world. 
I think this makes where I stand pretty clear. I am Way too busy for whiners.


----------



## dvcochran (Jun 25, 2020)

Buka said:


> View attachment 22938
> 
> Update....sold out.


Our son graduated from WKU. What have I missed at UK?


----------



## dvcochran (Jun 25, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> You mean the utter incompetence displayed by the trump administration?


I will answer a question with a question; what should have been done that would have made ANY difference?


----------



## jobo (Jun 25, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> Unlikely. At the very least, medicine and knowledge are better today. I’d be interested in hearing from some scientists in a few years (when we know more) how this virus compares to t Spanish flu in infectiousness and mortality.


its a poor relation, the Spanish flu was doing infected to dead in 3 or 4 hours.

reading today that the chance of catching corona in single exposure is 4000 to one, if you put 4000 on a train with one infected person with the SF, not many would walk off after a medium journey


----------



## jobo (Jun 25, 2020)

dvcochran said:


> I will answer a question with a question; what should have been done that would have made ANY difference?



guard the old people ?


----------



## Flying Crane (Jun 25, 2020)

Buka said:


> The Spanish Flu after the First World War -
> 
> _The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States._
> 
> Do you guys think we're going to match those numbers?


The interesting thing is, we already have a large percentage of those 675000 deaths in the US.  We are more than 1/6th of the way there, after about 5 months.  And now it’s getting worse.


----------



## Flying Crane (Jun 25, 2020)

CB Jones said:


> The money is in federal reimbursement for state and local agencies and increased budgets for certain departments.  Plus notoriety for certain officials.
> 
> This goes on during all large emergency responses.
> 
> ...


So clarify for me again, who is getting rich off this?

And how do you think it ought to have been handled?


----------



## Flying Crane (Jun 25, 2020)

CB Jones said:


> I agree that it is a deadly virus for the elderly and those with underlying conditions.


So I’m really trying to understand your conclusions.  Do you believe that this virus is harmless for the young and those without underlying conditions?  There have certainly been deaths in the young and in those without underlying conditions.  And there have been some alarming symptoms in children.  Do you believe these have happened, or do you believe this is fake news, a hoax?

Do you believe that the young and healthy have no need to take precautions?  Even in being cautious of passing it to those who are more at risk, like older parents or elderly/infirm grandparents or neighbors or other family?  Or even someone they may pass on the street?  Can the young and healthy just go about their lives as they did pre-Covid, with no concerns?


----------



## CB Jones (Jun 25, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> So clarify for me again, who is getting rich off this?



I never claimed people were getting rich.  My comment was referring to government funding and bureaucracy.


----------



## Flying Crane (Jun 25, 2020)

CB Jones said:


> I never claimed people were getting rich.  My comment was referring to government funding and bureaucracy.


Ok, so dealing with a pandemic costs money.  I cannot imagine a way around that.  What is the problem?


----------



## _Simon_ (Jun 25, 2020)

jobo said:


> guard the old people ?


I recommend seiken juji uke!


----------



## _Simon_ (Jun 25, 2020)

In other news.. people are panic buying again over here. Yep... aisles are EMPTY of toilet paper again! Did we not learn the first time!

People are fearing a second wave and potential further lockdown as it's been double digits for case increases for a week or more now... they ended up restocking the toilet papers eventually last time, so people who bulk bought them didn't know what to do with all that toilet paper! Buy as per a normal shop people!


----------



## Flying Crane (Jun 25, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> So I’m really trying to understand your conclusions.  Do you believe that this virus is harmless for the young and those without underlying conditions?  There have certainly been deaths in the young and in those without underlying conditions.  And there have been some alarming symptoms in children.  Do you believe these have happened, or do you believe this is fake news, a hoax?
> 
> Do you believe that the young and healthy have no need to take precautions?  Even in being cautious of passing it to those who are more at risk, like older parents or elderly/infirm grandparents or neighbors or other family?  Or even someone they may pass on the street?  Can the young and healthy just go about their lives as they did pre-Covid, with no concerns?


@CB Jones did you have anything to say about this?  Thanks.


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## Gerry Seymour (Jun 25, 2020)

_Simon_ said:


> In other news.. people are panic buying again over here. Yep... aisles are EMPTY of toilet paper again! Did we not learn the first time!
> 
> People are fearing a second wave and potential further lockdown as it's been double digits for case increases for a week or more now... they ended up restocking the toilet papers eventually last time, so people who bulk bought them didn't know what to do with all that toilet paper! Buy as per a normal shop people!


Man, there are still things that are hard to get around here. Every time I go to the store (I have been doing all our shopping during the pandemic, to reduce the Hobbit's exposure), I see someone buying a large enough amount of something that they almost have to be hoarding it.


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## _Simon_ (Jun 26, 2020)

gpseymour said:


> Man, there are still things that are hard to get around here. Every time I go to the store (I have been doing all our shopping during the pandemic, to reduce the Hobbit's exposure), I see someone buying a large enough amount of something that they almost have to be hoarding it.



Wow unreal huh...


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## Buka (Jun 26, 2020)

I went to Costco yesterday. They hadn't had any bacterial wipes for a while. I've been buying them for many years, but they're hard to find out here now.

I wish I had gone five minutes earlier. They had brought out a full pallet of the suckers, left it right in the middle of the isle where they usually go. As I round the corner I observe the immediate aftermath. Customers shredded that pallet, cardboard and plastic wrap all over the place. One lone package left, two guys practically dove for it.

It was an odd sight.


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## Flying Crane (Jun 26, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> So I’m really trying to understand your conclusions.  Do you believe that this virus is harmless for the young and those without underlying conditions?  There have certainly been deaths in the young and in those without underlying conditions.  And there have been some alarming symptoms in children.  Do you believe these have happened, or do you believe this is fake news, a hoax?
> 
> Do you believe that the young and healthy have no need to take precautions?  Even in being cautious of passing it to those who are more at risk, like older parents or elderly/infirm grandparents or neighbors or other family?  Or even someone they may pass on the street?  Can the young and healthy just go about their lives as they did pre-Covid, with no concerns?


@CB Jones I’m still hoping you might weigh in on this.  

In addition, I am curious to know if you watched today’s briefing by the White House Coronavirus Task Force.  Vice President Pence opened the briefing by making a heroic effort to polish up a turd.  I don’t think many in the press were convinced.

But what I would really like to get your input on is Anthony Fauci’s comments on the young people getting infected and their role in spreading the virus to others who may be more compromised, and the need for young people to use caution in their behavior to avoid this.  If you haven’t seen it, You can find the complete briefing here, Dr. Fauci begins at around 50 minutes.  






Would love to hear what you have to say on it.


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## Flying Crane (Jun 26, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> Ok, so dealing with a pandemic costs money.  I cannot imagine a way around that.  What is the problem?


@CB Jones hoping to get your comment here as well.


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## dvcochran (Jun 26, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> @CB Jones hoping to get your comment here as well.


I think it is pretty clear where you, I and several others stand on most of this. I am not at all clear on what your motive is in pursuing a response so strongly. Some kind of childish "I told you so" response possibly? Just sad.


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## _Simon_ (Jul 6, 2020)

Golly... below are the figures of increases in new cases just in our state over the last month or so, just hit 124 today, they've now shut the borders between our state and the next :s. They've found many "hotspots" they call them, so they've only locked down those suburbs but can sense we may be in for more lockdowns here...


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## Flying Crane (Jul 6, 2020)

_Simon_ said:


> Golly... below are the figures of increases in new cases just in our state over the last month or so, just hit 124 today, they've now shut the borders between our state and the next :s. They've found many "hotspots" they call them, so they've only locked down those suburbs but can sense we may be in for more lockdowns here...


I’m glad for you that your government has the foresight to lock down when the spike first begins to become evident, instead of living in denial and waiting for it to get really really bad first.  By then, it’s too late to rein it in.  

California had almost 12,000 new cases yesterday, but as far as I can tell, we are still moving forward with reopening.  That is happening all over the country.  There is always a lag between identification of new cases and hospitalizations, and another lag before the deaths begin to spike.  It simply takes some time for the disease to progress to that level in the individual.  In a few more weeks I expect we will be stacking bodies like cord wood again. 

We are a nation of imbeciles.


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## jobo (Jul 6, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> @CB Jones I’m still hoping you might weigh in on this.
> 
> In addition, I am curious to know if you watched today’s briefing by the White House Coronavirus Task Force.  Vice President Pence opened the briefing by making a heroic effort to polish up a turd.  I don’t think many in the press were convinced.
> 
> ...


yes definelty young people need to keep away from old people, which shouldn't be to hard for them to manage


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## _Simon_ (Jul 6, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> I’m glad for you that your government has the foresight to lock down when the spike first begins to become evident, instead of living in denial and waiting for it to get really really bad first.  By then, it’s too late to rein it in.
> 
> California had almost 12,000 new cases yesterday, but as far as I can tell, we are still moving forward with reopening.  That is happening all over the country.  There is always a lag between identification of new cases and hospitalizations, and another lag before the deaths begin to spike.  It simply takes some time for the disease to progress to that level in the individual.  In a few more weeks I expect we will be stacking bodies like cord wood again.
> 
> We are a nation of imbeciles.



Wow that's crazy... :s

And today after a delay on numbers it's been announced 191 new cases in our state yesterday.. there's a press conference later this afternoon, but possibly a 4 week statewide lockdown..


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## Flying Crane (Jul 7, 2020)

_Simon_ said:


> Wow that's crazy... :s
> 
> And today after a delay on numbers it's been announced 191 new cases in our state yesterday.. there's a press conference later this afternoon, but possibly a 4 week statewide lockdown..


Sounds like you have a government that actually cares for its citizens.  I am envious.  Got room for an American who might need a fresh start?


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## _Simon_ (Jul 8, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> Sounds like you have a government that actually cares for its citizens.  I am envious.  Got room for an American who might need a fresh start?



Haha... for sure come on over! When safe!

Yeah honestly I think they've done a tremendous job considering... I honestly really feel for the state premier who has said time and time again that he's not here to make comfortable, easy or popular decisions, and that he takes no pleasure in doing so.

Even though there are many throwing stones at them and not happy with some decisions and there have been some blunders along the way, he's got a ridiculous amount on his plate but has done his best to keep us all safe.


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## dvcochran (Jul 8, 2020)

_Simon_ said:


> Haha... for sure come on over! When safe!
> 
> Yeah honestly I think they've done a tremendous job considering... I honestly really feel for the state premier who has said time and time again that he's not here to make comfortable, easy or popular decisions, and that he takes no pleasure in doing so.
> 
> Even though there are many throwing stones at them and not happy with some decisions and there have been some blunders along the way, he's got a ridiculous amount on his plate but has done his best to keep us all safe.



I am envious of your country and government. Here in the U.S. the tide of the current social mentality is very hard to navigate. I cannot imagine being in a high level government position right now. As always the right decisions are there to discover but wading through the muck to get to them is very, very tough right now.


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## _Simon_ (Jul 8, 2020)

dvcochran said:


> I am envious of your country and government. Here in the U.S. the tide of the current social mentality is very hard to navigate. I cannot imagine being in a high level government position right now. As always the right decisions are there to discover but wading through the muck to get to them is very, very tough right now.



Yeah... I don't know how they be able to relax, or take time to wind down... the calls they have to make and the information they have to be on top of... and how many millions of lives can be affected... yikes...

And seriously it seems no matter what decisions they make they're gonna cop flak from someone


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## _Simon_ (Jul 10, 2020)

Our state capital and surrounding areas have been put back into Stage 3 lockdowns... for at least 6 weeks...

And to add on to the previous increases... :s







Admittedly there are craaazy amounts of tests being done, but alarming just how many coming back positive...

I've been keeping an eye on a fair few dojos in that area, and they were all so excited to be getting people back into dojos training, and now they have to go back to online training for 6 weeks or more during this lockdown.. crazy... I have a feeling the whole state will be back into lockdown soon, I say do it and get it over with. Many people are flaunting the guidelines and not taking it seriously, a few more people in our state have died recently too from it.

Hope you guys are all okay and safe, please, please take care


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## Flying Crane (Jul 10, 2020)

_Simon_ said:


> Our state capital and surrounding areas have been put back into Stage 3 lockdowns... for at least 6 weeks...
> 
> And to add on to the previous increases... :s
> 
> ...


I wish we had numbers like yours.


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## _Simon_ (Jul 10, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> I wish we had numbers like yours.


Ah really.. has it been pretty up there over your way :s


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## Flying Crane (Jul 11, 2020)

_Simon_ said:


> Ah really.. has it been pretty up there over your way :s


That’s an understatement.   Something like 70,000 new cases in the last 24 hours nationwide.  When the deaths begin to catch up with the new infections, well.  That will be an ugly sight.  We better brace ourselves for the coming storm.


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## PhotonGuy (Jul 11, 2020)

My Goju Ryu school has reopened although we do wear facemasks in class. My Jiu Jitsu school is still not open.


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## _Simon_ (Jul 11, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> That’s an understatement.   Something like 70,000 new cases in the last 24 hours nationwide.  When the deaths begin to catch up with the new infections, well.  That will be an ugly sight.  We better brace ourselves for the coming storm.


Very sorry to hear that... take care all.


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## dvcochran (Jul 12, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> That’s an understatement.   Something like 70,000 new cases in the last 24 hours nationwide.  When the deaths begin to catch up with the new infections, well.  That will be an ugly sight.  We better brace ourselves for the coming storm.



Please, please watch this video. 

This has been a huge and costly lesson in statistics. One of the first things you learn is diminishing return. There is a determinant point where continued input will not effect the bottom line results. They can and will influence other objects. In the Covid-19 scenario increased testing has naturally resulted in increased positives. What will never be clear is the accuracy of the inputs being used. For example:






How can a person trust anything coming from certain political inputs and All media inputs with this kind of information? The very same thing is happening at the testing phase when test results come back unclear. Not sure? It's Covid-19. How is this morally, ethically, legally, logically, (I can keep going) fair or informative?


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## angelariz (Jul 12, 2020)

We never closed.


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## Monkey Turned Wolf (Jul 12, 2020)

angelariz said:


> We never closed.


Is the Connecticut in your profile still accurate? If it is, you guys shouldn't have been legally allowed to be open between March and June. You guys got really lucky if no one reported it.


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## angelariz (Jul 12, 2020)

Monkey Turned Wolf said:


> Is the Connecticut in your profile still accurate? If it is, you guys shouldn't have been legally allowed to be open between March and June. You guys got really lucky if no one reported it.



Okay...and?


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## Monkey Turned Wolf (Jul 12, 2020)

angelariz said:


> Okay...and?


Beyond the inherent dangers and risks of choosing to continue to train..the reason I was posting that is because you may want to be more careful about what you post online. Considering your username is what I'm guessing is your name, and you've got your state listed, someone on this site (or a lurker) would be able to find your school and get them in trouble for staying open if they wished.


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## Buka (Jul 15, 2020)

I spoke with my senior student yesterday, he's been training as long as I have. His dojo in Massachusetts has been re-opened for three weeks now. Changed, obviously. He follows strict guidelines issued by the Governor's office.

He decided to change his class from an hour and a half to forty five minutes. There's no people there to watch class, no coming in early, a space between classes where he disinfects. I believe everyone's masked.

He's teaching Parker Kenpo instead of American Karate right now, we're both ranked In Kenpo under one of Ed's direct students. My student says the training fits in a little better under the state of the pandemic right now. We've always trained our guys in everything we know about the arts. And always encouraged them "to get out there and train with other people."

His girlfriend's son has been training in BJJ since before they met. He was talking to him yesterday and the son's Jits dojo has opened back up, too. Apparently it's a pretty big dojo, area wise. What they've done is taped off ten rings in the dojo. In each ring is one of those grappling dummies. They're classes are a little shorter now, too. And only ten students to a class, each with his own ring and grappling dummy. The instructor goes around and helps everyone work their techniques.

I find all of this fascinating.

I don't know how anything will work out. My guess is the pandemic is just warming up in general, maybe the dojos will be forced to shut back down.

I guess we'll find out.


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## Flying Crane (Jul 15, 2020)

Anyone who is bringing people together into close physical contact, breathing all over each other, is part of the problem.


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