# Yellowstone eruption threat high



## Makalakumu (May 9, 2005)

Check out this article...




> Yellowstone eruption threat high
> *Kilauea, Mount St. Helens, Rainier, Hood, Shasta top list*
> 
> The Associated Press
> ...





> ');if(window.print){window.print()}else{alert('To print his page press Ctrl-P on your keyboard \nor choose print from your browser or device after clicking OK');}}URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7789918/


 

Now, check out this link...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supervolcano

What do you think?[/font]


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## Tgace (May 9, 2005)

upnorthkyosa said:
			
		

> Check out this article...
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Dude..what is it with all the doomsday stuff? How can you live thinking about all this ****? If a supervolcano wipes out the human race what the heck are we going to do about it? I used to listen to Art Bell overnight too..then I stopped when I realized that 99% of the stuff was fearmongering. If I worried about everything that "might" happen to me whan I leave the house Id never make it through a day of work.


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## Makalakumu (May 9, 2005)

Tgace said:
			
		

> Dude..what is it with all the doomsday stuff? How can you live thinking about all this ****? If a supervolcano wipes out the human race what the heck are we going to do about it? I used to listen to Art Bell overnight too..then I stopped when I realized that 99% of the stuff was fearmongering. If I worried about everything that "might" happen to me whan I leave the house Id never make it through a day of work.


Morbid Fascination, I guess...except that this Yellowstone stuff is for real.  I've been out there and I've seen the data and observations.  I'm wondering why the USGS would put out a report that would absolutely scare the **** out of anyone who knows the slightest bit about supervolcanoes?  What kind of recent data are they looking at?


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## Bammx2 (May 9, 2005)

I just watched the documentary about super valcanoes here in the UK about a month and a half ago......

I can't remember the exact numbers,but for explaination sake.....
it said something along the lines of....
"yellowstone erupts on the average of every 40,000 years.
Give or take a century or two.
The last time was almost 47,000 years ago........"

They did a computer sim of it.....

we's all in trouble!


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## PeachMonkey (May 9, 2005)

If we're actually going to talk about the USGS report on the Yellowstone "supervolcano" (not a word that vulcanologists actually use, by the way, but one cooked up by a BBC documentary), let's look at their actual findings (emphasis mine):



			
				US Geological Survey said:
			
		

> Any renewed volcanic activity at Yellowstone *would most likely take the form of such mainly nonexplosive lava eruptions*. An eruption of lava could cause widespread havoc in the park, including fires and the loss of roads and facilities, *but more distant areas would probably remain largely unaffected*.


  Speaking about the "super-eruptions" people are freaking out about:



			
				US Geological Survey said:
			
		

> Fortunately, the Yellowstone volcanic system shows no signs that it is headed toward such an eruption in the near future. *In fact, the probability of any such event occurring at Yellowstone within the next few thousand years is exceedingly low*.


 Unless you expect your regimen of Ginsana to keep you alive longer than the next few thousand years, I don't think you have too much to worry about.


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## Makalakumu (May 9, 2005)

PeachMonkey said:
			
		

> If we're actually going to talk about the USGS report on the Yellowstone "supervolcano" (not a word that vulcanologists actually use, by the way, but one cooked up by a BBC documentary), let's look at their actual findings (emphasis mine):
> 
> Speaking about the "super-eruptions" people are freaking out about:
> 
> ...


Do you have a link to that report?  

Also, Ivan Watkins was calling em "supervolcanoes" before the BBC show came along...


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## MA-Caver (May 9, 2005)

Bammx2 said:
			
		

> They did a computer sim of it.....
> we's all in trouble!


WE's all in trouble? No, you're safely tucked in the UK homey thus according to the seismic monitors  nothing has happened there in quite a long time.
I've been to Yellowstone too, gorgeous place by the way and worth a visit or two. Of course the area is ripe for some seismic activity and volcanic displacement of liquid hot mag-ma. :wink1: There are hundreds of hotsprings and gysers all around the park, it's what makes it so unique and beautiful, which is indicative of underground (love it!) activity. 
But again the seismic monitors don't show any major activity in the area for quite some time either. 
The site of the tsunami disaster is still very active, and probably will be for some time now as the settling of the plates still occur. 
I only live roughly less than 200 miles (south) of the Yellowstone basin. The whole range of mountains are overdue for some type of geological event. Catastrophic?  :idunno: I'm only an ameteur geologist (read: caver) and can only speculate that something is going to happen. Closer to home we get tiny quakes a little south of us from time to time, nothing to even register or get into a huff about. 
Lots of people want to go into a hue and cry about the end of the world. It makes money... among other things. On a geological scale of things there nothing at all to do about it except the aftermath where we can put our national and individual humanity to the test.


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## Bammx2 (May 9, 2005)

MACaver said:
			
		

> WE's all in trouble? No, you're safely tucked in the UK homey thus according to the seismic monitors nothing has happened there in quite a long time.
> I've been to Yellowstone too, gorgeous place by the way and worth a visit or two. Of course the area is ripe for some seismic activity and volcanic displacement of liquid hot mag-ma. :wink1: There are hundreds of hotsprings and gysers all around the park, it's what makes it so unique and beautiful, which is indicative of underground (love it!) activity.
> But again the seismic monitors don't show any major activity in the area for quite some time either.
> The site of the tsunami disaster is still very active, and probably will be for some time now as the settling of the plates still occur.
> ...


I agree...and IF it was to go off like the simulation...it would have catostrophic results world wide...even here in the UK.
BUT....I hope to be back home in the next 2 years anyway.
 But I have to admit you are right about one thing....
if someone in malaysia sneezes......someone in idaho is gonna get the samoan chicken flu because of it
	

	
	
		
		

		
			




 People do have a tendancy to blow things out of proportion and panic at the slightest little thing.
But at the end of the day...all this technology can't save us from the natural progression of the universe.And just because we are comfortable in the thought of "it won't happen in our lifetime"...dosen't make it so.
oops...going the wrong way again...sorry y'all.
MACaver...I hope you didn't take this as a dig towards you.
You just made me think of something else.
Something that made me go...hhmm............


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## MA-Caver (May 9, 2005)

Bammx2 said:
			
		

> MACaver...I hope you didn't take this as a dig towards you.
> You just made me think of something else.
> Something that made me go...hhmm............




 :idunno: How would I take it as a dig against ME?  :idunno: 
No worries mate.


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## Tgace (May 9, 2005)

This is the way the world ends. This is the way the world ends. Not with a bang, but with a whimper...

http://www.iath.virginia.edu/pmc/text-only/issue.596/pop-cult.596


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## rmcrobertson (May 9, 2005)

It's interesting that one would link to that site, given its citations of libs and lefties like Baudrillard, Derrida and Heilbroner...including this, a reutation of Francis Fukuyama's blithe psalm to the triumph of capitalism:

"This think-tank idealism's blithe elision of the
     manifest empirical facts of our time prompts Jacques Derrida
     to write:

	it must be cried out, at a time when some 
	have the audacity to neo-evangelize in the 
	name of the ideal of a liberal democracy 
	that has finally realized itself as the 
	ideal of human history: never have violence,
	inequality, exclusion, famine, and thus 
	economic oppression affected as many human 
	beings in the history of the earth and of 
	humanity.  Instead of singing the advent of 
	the ideal of liberal democracy and of the
	capitalist market in the euphoria of the end 
	of history, instead of celebrating the "end 
	of ideologies" and the end of the great 
	emancipatory discourses, let us never neglect 
	this obvious macroscopic fact, made up of 
	innumerable singular sites of suffering: no 
	degree of progress allows one to ignore that 
	never before, in absolute figures, never have 
	so many men, women, and children been 
	subjugated, starved, or exterminated on
	the earth. (85)"


Yellowstone going boom. Cool summer movie topic.


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## Makalakumu (May 9, 2005)

rmcrobertson said:
			
		

> Yellowstone going boom. Cool summer movie topic.


I'd go to see that, but seriously, magma chamber eruptions are bad news.  Yellowstone has multiple caldera (they overlap) in it that exceed 40 km in diameter.


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## PeachMonkey (May 9, 2005)

upnorthkyosa said:
			
		

> Do you have a link to that report?


 http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2005/3024/


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## Tgace (May 9, 2005)

rmcrobertson said:
			
		

> It's interesting that one would link to that site, given its citations of libs and lefties like Baudrillard, Derrida and Heilbroner...including this, a reutation of Francis Fukuyama's blithe psalm to the triumph of capitalism:


Why do you think I chose it?


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## Makalakumu (May 9, 2005)

PeachMonkey said:
			
		

> http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2005/3024/


Thanks Peach...this is from the above source...



> The Yellowstone region has produced three exceedingly large volcanic eruptions in the past 2.1 million years. In each of these cataclysmic events, enormous volumes of magma erupted at the surface and into the atmosphere as mixtures of red-hot pumice, volcanic ash (small, jagged fragments of volcanic glass and rock), and gas that spread as pyroclastic (fire-broken) flows in all directions. Rapid withdrawal of such large volumes of magma from the subsurface then caused the ground to collapse, swallowing overlying mountains and creating broad cauldron-shaped volcanic depressions called calderas.
> 
> The first of these caldera-forming eruptions 2.1 million years ago created a widespread volcanic deposit known as the Huckleberry Ridge Tuff, an outcrop of which can be viewed at Golden Gate, south of Mammoth Hot Springs. This titanic event, one of the five largest individual volcanic eruptions known anywhere on the Earth, formed a caldera more than 60 miles (100 km) across.
> 
> ...


Nobody has every witnessed anything like this.  Nobody even knows what the warning signs would be.  I'm curious as to what _current_ data the USGS used to upgrade Yellowstone's status.  Heck, people aren't going to cry wolf about this type of eruption.  There would be mass panic.  Of course, it wouldn't make much difference if the eruption was expected.  You couldn't run far enough on this globe...and if you survive, you will wish you hadn't.


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## OUMoose (May 10, 2005)

Just curious, but haven't they been saying Yellowstone was going to pop for years now?  Same with the with the largely inactive fault that runs through the midwest?  Unfortunately this is the kind of thing that if it happens, there is no one in this world that can stop it or control it.  

*shrug*  I'm sure it'll be on CNN just like everything else...


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## PeachMonkey (May 10, 2005)

upnorthkyosa said:
			
		

> I'm curious as to what _current_ data the USGS used to upgrade Yellowstone's status.


 You can see the exact current data in this PDF file, linked off the report you posted:

http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2005/1164/2005-1164.pdf

 The cataclysmic eruptions you discuss are still not expected in the next few thousand years.  The threats from Yellowstone are considered high because of recurrent earthquake swarms and ground deformation and changes in hydrothermal features; these activities are considered consistent with potential lava explosions and steam explosions within close proximity of areas where over three million tourists visit each year and a huge amount of civil aviation takes place.

 The report also points out that Yellowstone hosts a great deal of earthquake activity not linked to volcanic activity.


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## Makalakumu (May 10, 2005)

PeachMonkey said:
			
		

> You can see the exact current data in this PDF file, linked off the report you posted:
> 
> http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2005/1164/2005-1164.pdf
> 
> The cataclysmic eruptions you discuss are still not expected in the next few thousand years...


Again, nobody has ever witnessed a magma chamber eruption.  Nobody has any real data as to what they would look like before or after the event.  I think the "thousands of years" prediction is more "public peace of mind" then science.  I can't see how someone studying this could be able to make that prediction.



			
				PeachMonkey said:
			
		

> The threats from Yellowstone are considered high because of recurrent earthquake swarms and ground deformation and changes in hydrothermal features; these activities are considered consistent with potential lava explosions and steam explosions within close proximity of areas where over three million tourists visit each year and a huge amount of civil aviation takes place.


Large scale swelling measured in Yellowstone.  Large movements of the Earth, usually start as small movements.  There is no real way to differentiate between the small and large scale events.



			
				PeachMonkey said:
			
		

> The report also points out that Yellowstone hosts a great deal of earthquake activity not linked to volcanic activity.


What is causing the earthquake activity?  Tectonic forces in that region are dominated by the Yellowstone hotspot and less by the basin/range tectonics of the further west.  In Yellowstone, it is hard to say that an earthquake is purely seismic or purely volcanic.


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## Rynocerous (May 10, 2005)

Tgace said:
			
		

> Dude..what is it with all the doomsday stuff? How can you live thinking about all this ****? If a supervolcano wipes out the human race what the heck are we going to do about it?


What are you saying Tgace? We can't do anything about it? I heard a rumour that a team of old guys are going to drill to the core of the earth and set off a nuke to re-establish the proper flow of magma in the center of the earth. Then they will all come back to the surface and be hero's, and we can go on living in the false sense of security that we had before. I just live out my short pointless life and try not to worry about the end of the world. When it comes it comes, and I just hope I have enough time to stick my head between my legs and kiss my *** goodbye.

Cheers,

Rynocerous


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## theletch1 (May 10, 2005)

Tgace said:
			
		

> I used to listen to Art Bell overnight too..then I stopped when I realized that 99% of the stuff was fearmongering.


What?! You mean there really aren't secret alien underground facilities that are working in conjunction with the New World Order to bring about a world government by using sub-particle technology to cause the super-volcanoe under Yellowstone to explode and thereby dropping the overall world population to 500,000?  Man, am I ever gonna write a nasty letter to George Noory letting him know what Art has been up to.  Seriously, it gets really lonely on the interstate at night and coast to coast is great for a good laugh now and then. :ultracool


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## Tgace (May 10, 2005)

theletch1 said:
			
		

> What?! You mean there really aren't secret alien underground facilities that are working in conjunction with the New World Order to bring about a world government by using sub-particle technology to cause the super-volcanoe under Yellowstone to explode and thereby dropping the overall world population to 500,000? Man, am I ever gonna write a nasty letter to George Noory letting him know what Art has been up to. Seriously, it gets really lonely on the interstate at night and coast to coast is great for a good laugh now and then. :ultracool


One of the psychological hazards of working the night shift behind the wheel while I burn off those last few drops of "Peak Oil" that will contribute to world war and the collapse of society....:shrug:

:rofl:


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## kid (May 10, 2005)

Tgace said:
			
		

> One of the psychological hazards of working the night shift behind the wheel while I burn off those last few drops of "Peak Oil" that will contribute to world war and the collapse of society....:shrug:
> 
> :rofl:


The whole world co-exists in a perfect harmonious state. Why should we give a turd about potential problems? It's not like we actually could fix them. Worlds Gonna blow up? I guess I got front row seats, crack open a brewski and watch the fireworks cause were DOOMED!  What problem has this type of action ever solved?  



kid


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## Makalakumu (May 10, 2005)

kid said:
			
		

> The whole world co-exists in a perfect harmonious state...


Don't fishlip it dude...


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## Tgace (May 10, 2005)

Needless fear and panic over disease and misfortune that seldom materialize are simply bad habits. By proper ventilation and illumination of the mind it is possible to cultivate tolerance, poise and real courage. 
--Elie Metchnikoff


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## Makalakumu (May 10, 2005)

Tgace said:
			
		

> Needless fear and panic over disease and misfortune that seldom materialize are simply bad habits. By proper ventilation and illumination of the mind it is possible to cultivate tolerance, poise and real courage.
> --Elie Metchnikoff


This is one of those topics like asteroid impacts.  There is absolutely nothing that one can do about it so one might as well not worry that much.  Yet, it does have some academic value.  The sheer power of a magma chamber eruption is awe inspiring...and therefore interesting to me.


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## Tgace (May 10, 2005)

Get under the sofa or we'll get avian flu when the supervolcano erupts.



> The Enlightenment values of scientific inquiry and rationalism were supposed to free humanity from superstition. In our high-tech dark age, however, it often seems that science is used to reinforce irrational fears. This is no way to live in what ought to be the best century so far to be alive.


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## kid (May 10, 2005)

upnorthkyosa said:
			
		

> Don't fishlip it dude...


come on people now,
gater round your brother,
everybody get together,
try to love on another right now.

Face it, this isn't gonna happen.  People can hardly get along with their own spouses let alone other cultures.  World blowing up?  No solution? doubt it.  Thats why we look into these things just cause we don't have one yet doesn't mean its all over theres still plenty of time.  You will definately lose if you give up.  I'm no scientist but what would happen if we tried to realese a little steam?  How about if we transported a giant iceberg and tried too cool the soup?  just ideas, but they are better than panicing or beleiving that the problem doesn't exist.


kid


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## Tgace (May 10, 2005)

Discovery Channel Blows Its Top and Its Credibility.

but here lets just put all the doomsday scenarios in one post and get them out of the way...
http://www.barry.warmkessel.com/barry/6related.html everything from supervolcanos to meteors to comet strikes.....

have a nice, ulcerous day.


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## Tgace (May 10, 2005)

The point isnt so much of if its "real" as to the idiocy of media, internet and everybody else mongering as much fear, despair and needless concern for the "common man"...what is the point propagating as much worry as possible amongst the population? "Culture of violence???" Were building a "Culture of doom and gloom" where we are sperading as much fear as possible. Even the medias obsession with reporting on every heinous crime they can find is an example of this. Child abduction for example is such a statistically minimal risk, but the media blitz every time it happens scares people into locking their children in the house. Spouses kill each other daily around the nation/world, why is it "news" in New York when a man kills his wife in California? The one case out of how many in that state during the same time period? Its never about "education" its about hype, ratings, and fear....read Gavin DeBeckers "Fear Less" for some good explination of the effect of **** like this on society as a whole.


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## Tgace (May 10, 2005)

> Some say that the supervolcano eruption is 40,000 years overdue. Which means that humanity could have wasted its time worrying about such an eruption since the good old days in the caves.


.....


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## michaeledward (May 10, 2005)

Isn't it interesting that the whole of recorded human existance, much less a human life, is such a short blink of time when viewed on a geologic scale?

40,000 years ago - all of human kind were still hunter gatherers. 

Imagine, if you can, human existence on an astrophysical scale. 

Cool !


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## PeachMonkey (May 10, 2005)

upnorthkyosa said:
			
		

> I can't see how someone studying this could be able to make that prediction.


 Neither can I with precision, but frankly, that's because neither you nor I are vulcanologists.



			
				upnorthkyosa said:
			
		

> Large scale swelling measured in Yellowstone. Large movements of the Earth, usually start as small movements. There is no real way to differentiate between the small and large scale events.


 Why do you say that there is no way to differentiate between the events, particularly in a dynamic system such as Yellowstone?  Do you have a background in vulcanology you haven't shared with us before?



			
				upnorthkyosa said:
			
		

> What is causing the earthquake activity? Tectonic forces in that region are dominated by the Yellowstone hotspot and less by the basin/range tectonics of the further west. In Yellowstone, it is hard to say that an earthquake is purely seismic or purely volcanic.


 I would imagine the range of seismic sensors discussed in the reports you linked to that cross the entire nation would make such determinations easier, but again, as neither of us are actually experts in this matter, I'm willing to defer to the US Geological Survey.  What's dissuading you from doing so?


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## Tgace (May 10, 2005)

Not enough doom n' gloom in their study.

Abandoning Optimism in Predictions About the Future.​


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## Makalakumu (May 10, 2005)

Tgace - your optimism is approaching manic levels...Here, repeat after me...

There are things in this world that are beyond my control.
There are things in this world that are beyond my control.
There are things in this world that are beyond my control.  

Pessimism or realism?

Peach - I have a degree in geology.  Many of my friends from my undergrad work for the USGS.

upnorthkyosa


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## PeachMonkey (May 10, 2005)

So are your friends in USGS sharing a higher level of panic about the Yellowstone supervolcano with you than they are with the rest of us?  Or am I reading something into your posts that isn't really there?


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## Makalakumu (May 10, 2005)

PeachMonkey said:
			
		

> So are your friends in USGS sharing a higher level of panic about the Yellowstone supervolcano with you than they are with the rest of us? Or am I reading something into your posts that isn't really there?


Peach, I don't want to be an alarmist about geologic catastrophes.  If I was in the position where I had to issue a "warning" about something like this, you can bet that I would do it on the conservative side.  

Why?  

Because I want to keep my job AND because a magma chamber eruption is one of those hopeless situations for mankind.  If it is going to happen and there is nothing one can do about it...so why cause a panic.  Die fast or die slow.  

I do know this...there isn't much in the way of seismic activity or volcanism in Yellowstone that is not attached to the magma chamber and hotspot underneath it.  The USGS knows this and that is why it it one of the most monitored "volcanic regions" in the US...besides some of the Cascades.

When Yellowstone burps, we are all watching, because we know that "it" is going to happen sometime.  

upnorthkyosa

PS - people get frustrated with geologists because time takes on a completely different meaning.


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