# Is China Gearing Up For War With Japan?



## celtic_crippler (Feb 12, 2013)

Article and Video: http://ntdtv.org/en/news/china/2013-02-11/chinese-troop-movements-signal-war-.html



> The troop movements come after months of escalating tensions between China and Japan over the disputed territory of the Diaoyun, or Senkaku islands and theyre known in Japan. Its caused international worries that the two countries may be on the cusp of war. Both sides have scrambled jets and warships in the region. In January, during naval exercise near the disputed waters, Chinese warships reportedly directed their targeting radar at a Japanese vessel.



...bothersome.


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## Instructor (Feb 12, 2013)

Oh man....Here we go again..


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## Tez3 (Feb 12, 2013)

Japan has been pushing China's buttons over these islands in the belief that if China declares war the USA will rush in and defend Japan. I think we may need to worry more about Japan than we do China, Japanese nationalism has only been lying under the surface,it's never gone away. They refuse to apologise not just to the Chinese, Koreans and Europeans for atrocities committed during the last war, they don't actually see them the same way as we do and if the mighty Japan can rise again they'll make it happen.  If they have to poke the tiger that is Japan they will and they are banking on the USA's hatred of communism to make sure China is seen as the bad guys here. Not that the Chinese aren't making noises but we need to watch Japan as much if not more than China.

http://belfercenter.hks.harvard.edu/publication/22560/japans_nationalism_is_a_sign_of_weakness.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/dec/16/japanese-hawk-victory-fears-tension


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-20078481


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## James Kovacich (Feb 12, 2013)

There's probably a lot more to this that meets the eye. China is in the same position with the Philipenes. In fact, the Islands that they claimed were theirs they built a landing strip without settling the dispute with the PI. It looks like they are pushing their weight around and making strategic moves for military superiority.

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## Xue Sheng (Feb 12, 2013)

Tez3 said:


> Japan has been pushing China's buttons over these islands in the belief that if China declares war the USA will rush in and defend Japan. I think we may need to worry more about Japan than we do China, Japanese nationalism has only been lying under the surface,it's never gone away. They refuse to apologise not just to the Chinese, Koreans and Europeans for atrocities committed during the last war, they don't actually see them the same way as we do and if the mighty Japan can rise again they'll make it happen. If they have to poke the tiger that is Japan they will and they are banking on the USA's hatred of communism to make sure China is seen as the bad guys here. Not that the Chinese aren't making noises but we need to watch Japan as much if not more than China.



Agreed, the thing with China these days is you always have to look at from the point of view of "is it a good idea financially to do this" if not, and it isn't, they will do nothing. However if attacked they will respond finances be damned. 

China is very good at manipulation of the East however and if they are making this a media event it makes me wonder what they are really up to that they do not want us looking at...and I have to tell you I think it is more along the lines of Cyber warfare capabilities they are working on and using this as a distraction for the rest of the world


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## Tez3 (Feb 13, 2013)

There won't be a 'one side good, one side bad' in this case. Both countries have agendas, both have a history with each other, Japan's war crimes in China aren't forgotten I'm sure. the Japanese still think they should have won the last war. Both sides need careful watching.


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## Xue Sheng (Feb 13, 2013)

Tez3 said:


> There won't be a 'one side good, one side bad' in this case. Both countries have agendas, both have a history with each other, Japan's war crimes in China aren't forgotten I'm sure. the Japanese still think they should have won the last war. Both sides need careful watching.



I know China is not all too happy with Japan, especially the older generations but many of the younger not so much...but they are not forgotten. But then there is that whole apology thing that did not make the PRC all to happy. But that is not enough, IMO, for China to go to war with Japan since it is likely to bring in the US and no one wants that. 

The thing about China is that knowing there agenda is not always easy and very rarely obvious. And if you think you know there agenda then watch out because it is likely something else they are doing that is far from obvious. Japan has concerned me for years and more so when, many years ago, I found the USA gave them a Navy and more yet when they approached the UN saying they want to be aggressive allies in battle.

But it is of concern and it needs to be watched


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## celtic_crippler (Feb 13, 2013)

What makes you think they don't want the US involved? 

What makes you think the US is currently able to involve itself? We're stretched pretty thin at the moment.


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## Xue Sheng (Feb 13, 2013)

celtic_crippler said:


> What makes you think they don't want the US involved?
> 
> What makes you think the US is currently able to involve itself? We're stretched pretty thin at the moment.



Were both Nuclear powers for one thing and historically China has never been interested in anything that was not considered China at one point or another in its past.

That and the Chinese military does not think it has the capability to defeat us yet, and yes they said that. However they are working on getting to a point where they feel they could and I cant remember if they said mid-2013 or mid-2014 as an estimate but they were, if I remember correctly fairly sure about mid-2015 (however this assumes we have little or no advancement). But that does not mean they would attack anyone if pushed. They like much of the rest of the planet is a little scared of us, we are a bit crazy at the moment on the world stage invading various countries and China has never ever been able to figure out why we care what goes on within the borders of another country. 

They do not want war with us because that would destroy both their economy and ours and we owe them a lot of money. China is not the aggressive nation many in the USA feel it is in and, if nothing else, they tend to be real concerned about their economy. And they would be just as happy becoming the #1 economy on the planet and making us a second world nation, probably more so actually

But here is the thing, China has played the Eastern part of the world for years, they have controlled a whole heck of a lot more than people know, hell they controlled a vote in Taiwan by sending in ships, flying jets around and say don't vote for that guy. As soon as the guy they told everyone not to vote for got back into office...they took their ships and planes and went home happy they got the guy they wanted back in office.

You can never look at what is going on with China from the point of view of a western power because it has never been that direct. Read Sun Tzu the Art of War and you will pretty much get the way the government approaches just about everything.

I have been watching this for a while now and wondering why China was doing so much Sabre rattling and why were they showing off their military so much when they never did that before. Then after some studying (job related) I find that I tend to feel it is, as always subterfuge. They are working real hard on Cyber warfare capabilities and if we are also worried about the standing military and the saber rattling that we see nothing else. That gives then a lot of free time to work on their Cyber capabilities. This is pure speculation but based on the history of China and the region, it is the only thing that is making sense to me.

You can say what you want and I will not get into an argument here or even much more discussion but China does not want war with the US any more than the US government wants war with China. 

And you are right, we are stretched pretty thin and that is a good reason for us to not want to be at war with China. But even if that meant we were going to sit this one out or look for a diplomatic solution, I doubt China would do anything unless seriously provoked.. by their definition not ours..that is of course if they are not the same and I am guessing they are not


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## WC_lun (Feb 13, 2013)

China is not going to do anything serious unless Japan does something really stupid, like fire upon a Chinese naval ship or something.  China will do what it thinks is in its best interest, much as the US does.  War, particularly which would involve a major ecomic trading partner is not in thier best interest.  Yes, they are sabre rattling, but I believe much of that is like a rattle snake shaking its tail.  They are saying, look we are here and we can hurt you.  Don't mess with us.  I think people forget that China may be many things, but its' government is anything but stupid or self destructive.


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## Tez3 (Feb 14, 2013)

I think the tendancy is to think that China is always wrong because it is 'communist' and will always be the ones who initiate anything that is wrong. Japan because it was occupied by America after the war is seen as being a little America. However neither of these countries I believe think as we do in the West and we shouldn't try to second guess them as if they were also Western.


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## celtic_crippler (Feb 14, 2013)

If you factor in the "currency war" and take into consideration the very real possibility of an international economic collapse, what is their motivation then?


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## Xue Sheng (Feb 14, 2013)

Tez3 said:


> I think the tendancy is to think that China is always wrong because it is 'communist' and will always be the ones who initiate anything that is wrong. Japan because it was occupied by America after the war is seen as being a little America. However neither of these countries I believe think as we do in the West and we shouldn't try to second guess them as if they were also Western.



Nah, I dont look as either side as wrong, it is a nationalism thing with some history behind it. But if you really look at it the whole thing is basically a fight over a rock and I dont see China going to war over a rock that is unless they are attacked first There is more to this, we just dont really know for certain what it is yet...and we may never know for that matter.


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## celtic_crippler (Feb 14, 2013)

Xue Sheng said:


> Nah, I don&#8217;t look as either side as wrong, it is a nationalism thing with some history behind it. But if you really look at it the whole thing is basically a fight over a rock and I don&#8217;t see China going to war over a rock&#8230; that is unless they are attacked first&#8230; There is more to this, we just don&#8217;t really know for certain what it is yet...and we may never know for that matter.



How likely do you think it is that Japan might strike first? Based on your research.


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## Xue Sheng (Feb 14, 2013)

celtic_crippler said:


> How likely do you think it is that Japan might strike first? Based on your research.



No Idea, I have done more reseach on China as well as things Cyber Warefare and the big 3 in that area...Japan is not one of them. 

Pure speculation here but I am guessing that would depend on how certain Japan is that the US and/or the UN would come to thier aide


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## James Kovacich (Feb 14, 2013)

http://www.cnn.com/2013/01/22/world/asia/philippines-china-territorial-dispute

 " Hong Kong (CNN) - The Philippines raised the stakes in its maritime territorial dispute with China by announcing Tuesday it is taking the case to an international tribunal.

The two Asian nations have been at loggerheads over China's claims of sovereignty over large swathes of the South China Sea, one of several tense disagreements between Beijing and its neighbors over waters in the region."

I not blaming China, but from an outsider, it seems like they are possibly "staking claims" to build up their military superiority in their region. In the long run, looking to own the region. 

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## billc (Feb 14, 2013)

> by announcing Tuesday it is taking the case to an international tribunal.



That'll teach em...


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## Xue Sheng (Feb 14, 2013)

James Kovacich said:


> http://www.cnn.com/2013/01/22/world/asia/philippines-china-territorial-dispute
> 
> " Hong Kong (CNN) - The Philippines raised the stakes in its maritime territorial dispute with China by announcing Tuesday it is taking the case to an international tribunal.
> 
> ...



Could be, but to be honest, by comparison to the other countries in the region, they already have military superiority. Neither the Philippines nor Japan stands a chance against China by themselves militarily... and the Philippines would stand much less of a chance than Japan.


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## James Kovacich (Feb 14, 2013)

Xue Sheng said:


> Could be, but to be honest, by comparison to the other countries in the region, they already have military superiority. Neither the Philippines nor Japan stands a chance against China by themselves militarily... and the Philippines would stand much less of a chance than Japan.



I agree. I'm thinking they're thinking long term and are taking steps to put us in check when we're in their backyard.

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## celtic_crippler (Feb 14, 2013)

Cold War II?


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## celtic_crippler (Feb 17, 2013)

> &#8220;Since we have decided that the US is bluffing in the East China Sea, we should take this opportunity to respond to these empty provocations with something real,&#8221; wrote Air Force Colonel Dai Xu in China&#8217;s _Global Times_ last August. &#8220;This includes Vietnam, the Philippines and Japan, which are the three running dogs of the United States in Asia &#8230; We only need to kill one, and it will immediately bring the others to heel.&#8221;
> 
> China&#8217;s neighbors see this aggressive posturing and react accordingly. Japan&#8217;s new Prime Minister has put forward the first increases to Japan&#8217;s defense budget in 11 years, citing China&#8217;s belligerent behavior around disputed islands in the East China Sea.


 
Full Article: http://www.phantomreport.com/game-of-thrones-chinas-military-hawks-go-on-the-offensive


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## Carol (Feb 17, 2013)

celtic_crippler said:


> Cold War II?



Sure sounds like its going that way.


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## celtic_crippler (Feb 17, 2013)

Carol said:


> Sure sounds like its going that way.



Yes, but it looks like some of China's military leaders may want to "heat" things up!


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## ballen0351 (Feb 17, 2013)

Looks like Japans not just going to sit back and wait:
http://www.marinecorpstimes.com/mob...ese-forces-power-up-iron-fist-exercise-021713

Indeed, Japan&#8217;s military is classified as a self-defense force, established to maintain peace, protect the homeland and provide disaster relief. Its soldiers don&#8217;t tend to execute beach assaults, as Japan&#8217;s military has no unit like the Marine Corps, but driven by fears of missile attacks from its unpredictable neighbor North Korea, these skills are becoming a growing interest among leaders there.

&#8220;They want to be a more viable force,&#8221; said Col. Christopher D. Taylor, commander of the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit. His Marines partnered with the Japanese throughout Iron Fist. &#8220;As a [U.S. treaty] partner, they are stepping up.&#8221;

Despite expanding its missile defense and stepping up talk about remilitarization, Japan remains sensitive to any impression of having offensive capabilities. Dozens of Japanese journalists followed every aspect of Iron Fist &#8212; from opening ceremonies at Camp Pendleton to desert training at in Twentynine Palms, Calif., and later operations on San Clemente Island, the Navy&#8217;s offshore range &#8212; but they didn&#8217;t capture any images of soldiers loading their rifles with blank rounds. They did so out of sight from the press.


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## celtic_crippler (Feb 19, 2013)

That area of Asia is becoming quite a powder keg... wonder how long before it blows? 

Article: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/19/us-nkorea-threat-idUSBRE91I0J520130219



> North Korea has already told key ally China that it is prepared to
> stage one or two more [nuclear] tests this year to force the United States into diplomatic
> talks, a source with direct knowledge of the message told Reuters last week.
> 
> ...


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## Xue Sheng (Feb 19, 2013)

Interesting thing here is that Pyongyang and Beijing do not really get along. They are Allies but Pyongyang does not listen to Beijing and Beijing is not really all that happy about it. 

However with the USA in the region it is likely that Beijing will not change anything, that is unless Pyongyang does something incredibly stupid which I tend to believe it a strong possibility. Pyongyang appears to have gotten caught up in its own propaganda machine and at times I believe it has lost track of reality. However that last bit about Pyongyang, the reality bit, is purely speculation on my part


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## celtic_crippler (Feb 20, 2013)

More on the 2nd Cold War...



> WASHINGTON (AP) -- As public evidence mounts that the Chinese military is responsible for stealing massive amounts of U.S. government data and corporate trade secrets, the Obama administration is eyeing fines and other trade actions it may take against Beijing or any other country guilty of cyberespionage.
> According to officials familiar with the plans, the White House will lay out a new report Wednesday that suggests initial, more-aggressive steps the U.S. would take in response to what top authorities say has been an unrelenting campaign of cyberstealing linked to the Chinese government.


 
If these &#8220;more-aggressive steps&#8221; go into effect, how will they impact the growing tension in the region and between the US and China? 

Article http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/storie...ME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2013-02-19-19-28-03


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## Xue Sheng (Feb 20, 2013)

Don&#8217;t know, have to wait and see. But historically it has been a back and forth type of thing, we sanction them and they sanction us. The sanction us and we sanction them. And this has gone on even in immigration and visas

But this "theft" is nothing new, just the method they are using is new. China has been stealing stuff for years in multiple ways. I once listened to a woman talk you use to be in the PRC&#8217;s "information gathering area" and she said getting high tech information from America was easy all you had to do was find and talk to the engineer, flirt a bit, not all that much really (no physical contact) and in some cases not at all, and ask them about what they had invented, worked on or done and act very interested and they would tell you everything. Mostly because people in general did not want to listen to them and never asked for detailed info because they thought it was boring and no one cared about the process only the result.

Another was a camera crew (US) in Beijing; they had a piece of equipment confiscated because the military person there did not know what it was "never seen it before and thought it might be for spying". The item was returned in a couple of days. About a week later a person in the US camera crew came across a Chinese camera crew with the same exact piece of equipment, only this one has Chinese writing on it.

Heck Microsoft went up against them on software piracy, which is rampant in China, and lost and Google tried to based on freedom of the internet and they lost (even OPEC lost in China). The issue will be if the USA does do something in the way of sanctions how will it affect the &#8220;BIG&#8221; US companies that are there&#8230;and there are a lot of them


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## Xue Sheng (Feb 21, 2013)

White House to combat hackers with diplomacy 



> The Obama administration unveiled a strategy on Wednesday to better protect the business secrets of U.S. companies from theft, including attacks by hackers.


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