# Foolish Behaviour and the Dunning-Kruger Bias.



## Gyakuto (Jan 9, 2022)

The last 3 years have dramatically highlighted that, like entropy, stupidity appears to be increasing in the universe. A unique set of medical and political situations have exposed the sheer depth of foolish ideas that some people hold. It’s been quite bewildering.  Then I ran across a couple of articles about the Dunning-Kruger Effect.

The Dunning-Kruger effect is a type of cognitive bias in which people believe that they are smarter and more capable than they really are. Essentially, low ability people do not possess the skills needed to recognize their own incompetence. The combination of poor self-awareness and low cognitive ability leads them to overestimate their own capabilities to think things through to a reasonable conclusion. This was a light-bulb moment for me, because it explained what we witness and can only call stupidity. It seems to invade all aspects of life: the awful manager who thinks they’re wonderful (David Brent) but who’s subordinates can clearly see are totally incompetent. The army general who orders his men to fight against overwhelming odds and wipes them all out. The business person who thinks they can succeed in their failing business if only others would ‘give them a break‘. The incompetent leader of a country, the decision to not protect themselves and save others etc…it all makes sense how this happens….The Dunning-Kruger effect.

The key is to recognise ones own limits and act within them. For example, I was a good academic neuroscientist and have sound, evidence-led opinions on science. But don’t ask me about financial investments, or sporting competitions or the governments latest ideas on corporate taxation because I _know_ my limits.


----------



## Bill Mattocks (Jan 9, 2022)

While valid, this term has unfortunately become a club to beat other people with. That is, given two points of view will insist the other is a victim of Dunning-Kruger.

There is literally no way to illustrate to a stupid or incompetent person that they are stupid or incompetent, because they will reject all evidence of it and insist it's you who are stupid or incompetent. 

Very few people these days seem capable of saying that they lack mastery over any subject, or that they have no opinion, or that they have difficulty understanding a concept. Hubris seems to be at an all-time high. Obviously I cannot exempt myself from that criticism.

I am reminded of the poem, "The Second Coming," by William Butler Yeats. 


Turning and turning in the widening gyre   
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere   
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst   
Are full of passionate intensity.

"Not with a bang, but a whimper."


----------



## Gyakuto (Jan 9, 2022)

Isn’t the D-K bias discipline specific? The opinion, on general relativity, of my friend, who did his PhD with Stephen Hawking is _far_ more informed and far more valuable than mine. But if we chat about the neural correlates of consciousness, he listens to me! We know our limits and despite his brain being the size of a small planet, he still knows and acknowledges his! 

It’s the failure to acknowledge ones limits either through D-K or sheer arrogance that leads to the invalidity of opinion.

Have no particular mastery is very unfortunate, but can be remedied…I mean…we have Youtube 😀😉


----------



## Bill Mattocks (Jan 9, 2022)

Gyakuto said:


> Isn’t the D-K bias discipline specific? The opinion, on general relativity, of my friend, who did his PhD with Stephen Hawking is _far_ more informed and far more valuable than mine. But if we chat about the neural correlates of consciousness, he listens to me! We know our limits and despite his brain being the size of a small planet, he still knows and acknowledges his!
> 
> It’s the failure to acknowledge ones limits either through D-K or sheer arrogance that leads to the invalidity of opinion.
> 
> Have no particular mastery is very unfortunate, but can be remedied…I mean…we have Youtube 😀😉


I'm pointing out that it's become yet another buzzword. It's all over Twitter. It's been thus rendered meaningless.


----------



## Gyakuto (Jan 9, 2022)

Ah…I avoid such platforms…the users _all_ display D-K 😉😂


----------



## Steve (Jan 9, 2022)

Gyakuto said:


> The last 3 years have dramatically highlighted that, like entropy, stupidity appears to be increasing in the universe. A unique set of medical and political situations have exposed the sheer depth of foolish ideas that some people hold. It’s been quite bewildering.  Then I ran across a couple of articles about the Dunning-Kruger Effect.
> 
> The Dunning-Kruger effect is a type of cognitive bias in which people believe that they are smarter and more capable than they really are. Essentially, low ability people do not possess the skills needed to recognize their own incompetence. The combination of poor self-awareness and low cognitive ability leads them to overestimate their own capabilities to think things through to a reasonable conclusion. This was a light-bulb moment for me, because it explained what we witness and can only call stupidity. It seems to invade all aspects of life: the awful manager who thinks they’re wonderful (David Brent) but who’s subordinates can clearly see are totally incompetent. The army general who orders his men to fight against overwhelming odds and wipes them all out. The business person who thinks they can succeed in their failing business if only others would ‘give them a break‘. The incompetent leader of a country, the decision to not protect themselves and save others etc…it all makes sense how this happens….The Dunning-Kruger effect.
> 
> The key is to recognise ones own limits and act within them. For example, I was a good academic neuroscientist and have sound, evidence-led opinions on science. But don’t ask me about financial investments, or sporting competitions or the governments latest ideas on corporate taxation because I _know_ my limits.


I don’t think these are necessarily examples of dunning Kruger.  They seem as likely to be examples of poor judgement, lack of ability to think under pressure, lack of accountability or a number of other possibilities.  Intrinsic to dunning Kruger is lack of self awareness, which is a little harder to identify. As Bill said, it’s become a casual insult… way to disregard contrary opinions, a shorthand for telling someone they are not just incompetent, but also overconfident and not self aware.


----------



## Xue Sheng (Jan 9, 2022)

Bill Mattocks said:


> I'm pointing out that it's become yet another buzzword. It's all over Twitter. It's been thus rendered meaningless.



so basically people that are accusing other of the Dunning-Kruger bias, are themselves guilty of the Dunning-Kruger bias


----------



## Bill Mattocks (Jan 9, 2022)

Xue Sheng said:


> so basically people that are accusing other of the Dunning-Kruger bias, are themselves guilty of the Dunning-Kruger bias


It is incorrect to assert that stupid people will suddenly recognize their stupidity if it is only pointed out to them. 

Given someone who is obviously wrong on the internet (lol), one merely has to explain Dunning-Kruger to them and they'll instantly accept how wrong they are.

I was born at night. But not last night.


----------



## dvcochran (Jan 10, 2022)

For me, it is the stupid vs. ignorant argument. I am ignorant of things all the time. 
In regard to this theme, I like the saying "you don't know what you don't know". A shallow statement on the surface but very deep in reality. I use it as a reminder of where I do Not want to be.


----------



## Steve (Jan 10, 2022)

Gyakuto said:


> Isn’t the D-K bias discipline specific? The opinion, on general relativity, of my friend, who did his PhD with Stephen Hawking is _far_ more informed and far more valuable than mine. But if we chat about the neural correlates of consciousness, he listens to me! We know our limits and despite his brain being the size of a small planet, he still knows and acknowledges his!
> 
> It’s the failure to acknowledge ones limits either through D-K or sheer arrogance that leads to the invalidity of opinion.
> 
> Have no particular mastery is very unfortunate, but can be remedied…I mean…we have Youtube 😀😉


It is definitely discipline specific, and one of the biggest challenges we can see pretty regularly around here is that folks don't recognize when they move from one discipline into another.  The most consistent, predictable example of genuine Dunning-Kruger bias is folks who have no expertise with fighting believing that they are experts in self defense.  When they post on this forum about how they have techniques that they allege still "work", it is cringeworthy. 

I agree completely that there are a lot of great reasons to train in martial arts, and fighting skills may not be among those for a person.  No problem at all.  But when those same people talk about what will work in a real fight... that's concerning.  Or when people who have never been in a fight talk about what works or would work in a fight, that's just not realistic.  And for their sake, I hope they never need to use those skills in that context.


----------



## harleyt26 (Jan 11, 2022)

Gyakuto said:


> The last 3 years have dramatically highlighted that, like entropy, stupidity appears to be increasing in the universe. A unique set of medical and political situations have exposed the sheer depth of foolish ideas that some people hold. It’s been quite bewildering.  Then I ran across a couple of articles about the Dunning-Kruger Effect.
> 
> The Dunning-Kruger effect is a type of cognitive bias in which people believe that they are smarter and more capable than they really are. Essentially, low ability people do not possess the skills needed to recognize their own incompetence. The combination of poor self-awareness and low cognitive ability leads them to overestimate their own capabilities to think things through to a reasonable conclusion. This was a light-bulb moment for me, because it explained what we witness and can only call stupidity. It seems to invade all aspects of life: the awful manager who thinks they’re wonderful (David Brent) but who’s subordinates can clearly see are totally incompetent. The army general who orders his men to fight against overwhelming odds and wipes them all out. The business person who thinks they can succeed in their failing business if only others would ‘give them a break‘. The incompetent leader of a country, the decision to not protect themselves and save others etc…it all makes sense how this happens….The Dunning-Kruger effect.
> 
> The key is to recognise ones own limits and act within them. For example, I was a good academic neuroscientist and have sound, evidence-led opinions on science. But don’t ask me about financial investments, or sporting competitions or the governments latest ideas on corporate taxation because I _know_ my limits.


You think you know your limits..but the low ability people think they do too.
Not saying you are incorrect. Just saying


----------



## Oily Dragon (Jan 11, 2022)

People who don't mind testing their limits are the ones who generally avoid this sort of mental swamp.  It's the people who enjoy things as-is that get trapped into this sort of comfort loop, and lose their minds when that's threatened.  That's how the Comment Section Generation was born.  How else are Flat Earth people and Lizard People Conspiracy theorists going to hook up?


Gyakuto said:


> Ah…I avoid such platforms…the users _all_ display D-K 😉😂


Pretty much.

Most of social media has turned into a sort of nightmare where Freddy Krueger has been replaced by a never-ending high school debate class in Hell, on all subjects.


----------



## Steve (Jan 11, 2022)

Oily Dragon said:


> People who don't mind testing their limits are the ones who generally avoid this sort of mental swamp.  It's the people who enjoy things as-is that get trapped into this sort of comfort loop, and lose their minds when that's threatened.  That's how the Comment Section Generation was born.  How else are Flat Earth people and Lizard People Conspiracy theorists going to hook up?
> 
> Pretty much.
> 
> Most of social media has turned into a sort of nightmare where Freddy Krueger has been replaced by a never-ending high school debate class in Hell, on all subjects.


Twitter is a weird combination of random survey questions, tricking people into revealing security question answers, amplification of news or opinion stories, pointless arguments made in 480 characters or less, and animal pictures.

What I think is really funny about it is that you can always tell around here who spends a LOT of time posting on Twitter, because their posts are predominately short zingers.  They read like mediocre, late night, talk show monologue jokes.


----------



## Xue Sheng (Jan 11, 2022)

Steve said:


> Twitter is a weird combination of random survey questions, tricking people into revealing security question answers, amplification of news or opinion stories, pointless arguments made in 480 characters or less, and animal pictures.
> 
> What I think is really funny about it is that you can always tell around here who spends a LOT of time posting on Twitter, because their posts are predominately short zingers.  They read like mediocre, late night, talk show monologue jokes.



soooo what is your user name and password....and do you have admin rights....just wondering


----------



## Monkey Turned Wolf (Jan 11, 2022)

harleyt26 said:


> You think you know your limits..but the low ability people think they do too.
> Not saying you are incorrect. Just saying


Many don't actually. A lot seem to have the view that they know better than anyone, and don't have (or haven't hit) the limits everyone else keeps talking about.


----------



## Steve (Jan 11, 2022)

Xue Sheng said:


> soooo what is your user name and password....and do you have admin rights....just wondering


LOL.  More like, your porn name is the name of your first pet and the color of your first car.


----------



## Steve (Jan 11, 2022)

I seem to recall that the conclusions from the research on this weren't just on the low end.  It was a combination of lower competency folks over valuing their expertise and high competency folks _undervaluing _their expertise.  It has been a while, but if you really want to go down the rabbit hole on this, the actual research is available on the web, and it's pretty darn cool.


----------



## Dirty Dog (Jan 11, 2022)

Steve said:


> What I think is really funny about it is that you can always tell around here who spends a LOT of time posting on Twitter, because their posts are predominately short zingers.  They read like mediocre, late night, talk show monologue jokes.


One of the easier claims to test. How much do I post on Twitter?


----------



## Steve (Jan 11, 2022)

Dirty Dog said:


> One of the easier claims to test. How much do I post on Twitter?


Haha.  Can't evaluate that, but we can assess your aptitude for twitter based on the quality of your one-liners.


----------



## Dirty Dog (Jan 11, 2022)

Steve said:


> Haha.  Can't evaluate that, but we can assess your aptitude for twitter based on the quality of your one-liners.


But you said you can "always tell"... are you retracting that claim?


----------



## Steve (Jan 11, 2022)

Dirty Dog said:


> But you said you can "always tell"... are you retracting that claim?


You seem bored.  Okay, let's see.  I'd say you don't post on twitter much (if at all), but I think you'd be really good at it.  You have the needling down pat.


----------



## Dirty Dog (Jan 11, 2022)

Steve said:


> You seem bored.


You sure seem to have a lot of faith in your psychic powers today. I'm holding up a card. Can you tell which it is?


----------



## Xue Sheng (Jan 11, 2022)

Steve said:


> LOL.  More like, your porn name is the name of your first pet and the color of your first car.



You forgot ABC12345


----------



## Steve (Jan 11, 2022)

Back on topic, this article by David Dunning from many years ago is a great read.  Long, but worth it.  It's a strong baseline for this discussion, at the very least.  









						We Are All Confident Idiots
					

The trouble with ignorance is that it feels so much like expertise. A leading researcher on the psychology of human wrongness sets us straight.




					psmag.com


----------



## Steve (Jan 11, 2022)

Dirty Dog said:


> You sure seem to have a lot of faith in your psychic powers today. I'm holding up a card. Can you tell which it is?


I think it's the joker.  Not bored then?  Okay.


----------



## Oily Dragon (Jan 11, 2022)

Dirty Dog said:


> You sure seem to have a lot of faith in your psychic powers today. I'm holding up a card. Can you tell which it is?


You're not holding up a card...

What do I win?


----------



## Dirty Dog (Jan 11, 2022)

Steve said:


> I think it's the joker.  Not bored then?  Okay.





Oily Dragon said:


> You're not holding up a card...
> 
> What do I win?


Both wrong. It's the 7 of Hearts.


----------



## Oily Dragon (Jan 11, 2022)

Dirty Dog said:


> Both wrong. It's the 7 of Hearts.


----------



## Mider (Jan 12, 2022)

Gyakuto said:


> The last 3 years have dramatically highlighted that, like entropy, stupidity appears to be increasing in the universe. A unique set of medical and political situations have exposed the sheer depth of foolish ideas that some people hold. It’s been quite bewildering.  Then I ran across a couple of articles about the Dunning-Kruger Effect.
> 
> The Dunning-Kruger effect is a type of cognitive bias in which people believe that they are smarter and more capable than they really are. Essentially, low ability people do not possess the skills needed to recognize their own incompetence. The combination of poor self-awareness and low cognitive ability leads them to overestimate their own capabilities to think things through to a reasonable conclusion. This was a light-bulb moment for me, because it explained what we witness and can only call stupidity. It seems to invade all aspects of life: the awful manager who thinks they’re wonderful (David Brent) but who’s subordinates can clearly see are totally incompetent. The army general who orders his men to fight against overwhelming odds and wipes them all out. The business person who thinks they can succeed in their failing business if only others would ‘give them a break‘. The incompetent leader of a country, the decision to not protect themselves and save others etc…it all makes sense how this happens….The Dunning-Kruger effect.
> 
> The key is to recognise ones own limits and act within them. For example, I was a good academic neuroscientist and have sound, evidence-led opinions on science. But don’t ask me about financial investments, or sporting competitions or the governments latest ideas on corporate taxation because I _know_ my limits.


I think with the Internet people think they’re experts on everything


----------



## Steve (Jan 12, 2022)

Mider said:


> I think with the Internet people think they’re experts on everything


Not everything.


----------



## Buka (Jan 14, 2022)

Steve said:


> LOL.  More like, your porn name is the name of your first pet and the color of your first car.


Oh hell, I'm Samson Black!


----------



## Dirty Dog (Jan 15, 2022)

Steve said:


> LOL.  More like, your porn name is the name of your first pet and the color of your first car.


Lady Rust!


----------



## Steve (Jan 15, 2022)

Dirty Dog said:


> Lady Rust!


Just to be clear to everyone, that was intended to be a humorous example of a poll question where people voluntarily reveal answers to common challenge questions on websites.  I don’t know if you’re answering truly but I wouldn’t recommend it.


----------



## Dirty Dog (Jan 15, 2022)

Steve said:


> Just to be clear to everyone, that was intended to be a humorous example of a poll question where people voluntarily reveal answers to common challenge questions on websites.  I don’t know if you’re answering truly but I wouldn’t recommend it.


My first pet was a Collie named Lady. My first car was a rust bucket from a salvage yard. So yes, an honest answer. Neither of which I use for challenge questions. My answers to challenge questions are actually NOT honest. For the reasons you allude to.


----------



## drop bear (Jan 15, 2022)

Steve said:


> Haha.  Can't evaluate that, but we can assess your aptitude for twitter based on the quality of your one-liners.



Yeah but we also associate with Plato or Socrates by their one liners.

It isn't always the author it's the audience.


----------



## drop bear (Jan 15, 2022)

Steve said:


> Back on topic, this article by David Dunning from many years ago is a great read.  Long, but worth it.  It's a strong baseline for this discussion, at the very least.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



By the way this is my issue with anecdotal street evidence/war stories.

Even competent experienced guys just make **** up to sound more professional.


----------



## Tez3 (Jun 6, 2022)

Steve said:


> Twitter is a weird combination of random survey questions, tricking people into revealing security question answers, amplification of news or opinion stories, pointless arguments made in 480 characters or less, and animal pictures.
> 
> What I think is really funny about it is that you can always tell around here who spends a LOT of time posting on Twitter, because their posts are predominately short zingers.  They read like mediocre, late night, talk show monologue jokes.


You mean Twitter isn't just greyhound owners checking to see that the latest weird thing their hound has done is normal for a greyhound? Wow 😃


----------



## Steve (Jun 6, 2022)

Tez3 said:


> You mean Twitter isn't just greyhound owners checking to see that the latest weird thing their hound has done is normal for a greyhound? Wow 😃


I mean, that's definitely a part of it.


----------



## Xue Sheng (Jun 6, 2022)

As to twitter..... you're ALL wrong....

Twitter - (of a bird) give a call consisting of repeated light tremulous sounds.

Now you know


----------



## Steve (Jun 6, 2022)

Xue Sheng said:


> As to twitter..... you're ALL wrong....
> 
> Twitter - (of a bird) give a call consisting of repeated light tremulous sounds.
> 
> Now you know


That can’t be right. 😉


----------



## Xue Sheng (Jun 6, 2022)

Steve said:


> That can’t be right. 😉



Of course it's right, I found it on the internet....and the internet never lies


----------



## Argus (Jun 9, 2022)

Gyakuto said:


> The last 3 years have dramatically highlighted that, like entropy, stupidity appears to be increasing in the universe. A unique set of medical and political situations have exposed the sheer depth of foolish ideas that some people hold. It’s been quite bewildering.  Then I ran across a couple of articles about the Dunning-Kruger Effect.
> 
> The Dunning-Kruger effect is a type of cognitive bias in which people believe that they are smarter and more capable than they really are. Essentially, low ability people do not possess the skills needed to recognize their own incompetence. The combination of poor self-awareness and low cognitive ability leads them to overestimate their own capabilities to think things through to a reasonable conclusion. This was a light-bulb moment for me, because it explained what we witness and can only call stupidity. It seems to invade all aspects of life: the awful manager who thinks they’re wonderful (David Brent) but who’s subordinates can clearly see are totally incompetent. The army general who orders his men to fight against overwhelming odds and wipes them all out. The business person who thinks they can succeed in their failing business if only others would ‘give them a break‘. The incompetent leader of a country, the decision to not protect themselves and save others etc…it all makes sense how this happens….The Dunning-Kruger effect.
> 
> The key is to recognise ones own limits and act within them. For example, I was a good academic neuroscientist and have sound, evidence-led opinions on science. But don’t ask me about financial investments, or sporting competitions or the governments latest ideas on corporate taxation because I _know_ my limits.



The Dunning Kruger effect is real, and very observable recently.

But, I want to emphasize a number of things:

1) Expertise does not have any correlation whatsoever (surprisingly) to being right, or having good judgement. Humility does.
2) Beware information bubbles and "artificial realities." Social media has played a huge role in cultivating echo chambers where we only see and hear things that reinforce our existing biases and beliefs, and we all fall prey to this. This is extremely radicalizing, and leads us to construct an overly simplified and misrepresentative perception of opposing views, stripped of nuance and context. The people who you would accuse of falling victim to the Dunning Kruger effect may well have good basis for their views, and it's simply you who are missing the nuance. So many people attempt to validate their beliefs by finding the most ridiculous example of an opposing view, and refuting it, rather than taking the time to search for, and familiarize themself with the most intelligent arguments and individuals on the other side of the isle. They then proceed to disregard anyone who says or advocates Y, simply because they found many examples of poor arguments for Y.
Honestly, I could list dozens more logical fallacies that the vast majority of people on BOTH sides of the isle are guilty of here.
3) Understand that we are in a highly politicized environment, and politics is the antithesis of intellectual honesty and sense making. Distrust all rhetoric and be doubly skeptical of anything you are inclined to believe. And, frankly, give very little weight to "authority" and "authoritative" sources that are in any way political in nature. Take conflicts of interest seriously, apply critical thinking relentlessly, and refuse to have an opinion on the vast majority of information. This is where you need to constantly be applying tools such as Occam's Razor, and familiarizing yourself with a broad array of subjects and reasoning if you want to have any hope of having an accurate perception of the world.

Lastly, I want to emphasize that intellectually honest amateurs applying critical thinking and logical reasoning, towards the end of really and truly getting at an objective understanding of things, can and most often do produce more factual and accurate takes on things than any politically motivated individual or institution. One such example that I'd direct you towards is the "less wrong" community. Applying these same methods, I have also, myself, been extremely accurate in my forecasts / probability / believe-ability weighting of information regarding Economics, and the Pandemic (which I won't get into the details of, because these are hot political subjects, but...). I don't need to be an expert in these fields, but I do need to know the limits of my knowledge and what I can and can't judge. This is where humility comes in. Humility, and a keen awareness of what you know, what you don't know, and what you don't know you don't know, can actually empower you to form more accurate takes on a subject than many experts in the field, even if that take is simply "I don't know" or "we can't know, but here are the possibilities as I understand them"

Humility is the key. And that does NOT mean "staying in your lane." Complex issues within complex systems should be examined by people with diverse view points, experience, and expertise in as broad a manner, and from as many perspectives as possible. Humility simply means being aware of what you can and can't know, and what you do and don't know, and from there, thinking in terms of probabilities, possibilities, and believe-ability weighting information. Intellectual honesty and a true desire to understand things objectively, and the humility necessary to do that, are far more valuable than any domain specific expertise, though you must make yourself knowledgeable to the degree that your analysis goes (ie, I can come up with a very accurate analysis on any given issue as long as I take care not to get in over my head, and insist on taking a neutral stance on anything that you don't have the ability to analyze in sufficient depth or detail to make a given conclusion. This is something you can get very good at, even if it is a skill that escapes many people.)


----------

