# Swine Flu, Bird Flu, Who Cares?



## Thesemindz (Apr 25, 2009)

I mean really. Now we're supposed to be worried about the "swine flu?"

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,517901,00.html

Haven't we been around this block before? I mean, maybe I'm being foolhardy, but I'm just not concerned. 

I know a lot of people are. Years ago I had people come up to me and say, "the bird flu is gonna get us!" Now I'm having people come up to me and say, "the swine flu is gonna get us!" I just don't care.

Maybe it's because I'm a young, very healthy man in a first world country who washes his hands obsessively. I don't know. Maybe I'm being a foolhardy ignorant child. I'm willing to accept that possibility.

But the reality is I just don't care. I'm not worried. You want to sweat the swine flu? Fine.

Keep an eye on that for me.


-Rob


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## theletch1 (Apr 25, 2009)

The difference between the swine and avian flus is that the "swine" flu is much easier to pass along from human to human.  You have good points about being lucky enough to be in a first world country, young and healthy.  I think the concern would be more of a concern for your fellow man who isn't quite so lucky... not that I think you aren't, I'm just looking at it from a distance so to speak.  I do agree with your underlying point, though, that we've had way too many oddities to be fearful of that never really manifest.  Of course, that's been the way of things through out human history.


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## Thesemindz (Apr 25, 2009)

I keep getting these people coming up to me who are hysterical over these things, and I just can't get motivated to care. 

Maybe I just don't understand the nature of the threat, but I mean come on.

Wash you hands. Eat vegetables. Drink orange juice. Dress warmly. Cook your food thoroughly.

It's not that hard to stay healthy.

Now, your point about people in parts of the world where washing your hands and drinking orange juice is a little trickier is valid, but I don't live there, so I'm not too concerned for _my _safety, although concern for their safety is perfectly valid.


-Rob


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## Empty Hands (Apr 25, 2009)

Flu is a deadly disease, we just don't think of it that way.  It kills mainly the young, the old, and the sick.  Flu can also be responsible for pandemics.  The "Forgotten Plague", the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918, infected 20% of the world, and killed off 2.5-5% of the total global population.  That, or worse, can happen again at any time.  No one should needlessly panic, but it is also irrational to pretend that flu pandemics can't or won't happen, or that they are nothing to worry about.  A 5% mortality pandemic today would kill around 300 million people - nearly the entire population of the US.

You are also right that your point of view is a privileged one.  Not everyone is young and healthy and has ready access to health care.


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## Thesemindz (Apr 25, 2009)

Empty Hands said:


> Flu is a deadly disease, we just don't think of it that way. It kills mainly the young, the old, and the sick. Flu can also be responsible for pandemics. The "Forgotten Plague", the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918, infected 20% of the world, and killed off 2.5-5% of the total global population. That, or worse, can happen again at any time. No one should needlessly panic, but it is also irrational to pretend that flu pandemics can't or won't happen, or that they are nothing to worry about. A 5% mortality pandemic today would kill around 300 million people - nearly the entire population of the US.
> 
> You are also right that your point of view is a privileged one. Not everyone is young and healthy and has ready access to health care.


 
All true. But it isn't 1918 anymore. While I realize that much of the world lives in conditions that would be considerably pre-1918 by _our_ standards, _we_ do not. Which is why, while I understand some concern in general for some parts of the world, I am not _personally_ concerned for _my_ part of the world.


-Rob


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## grydth (Apr 25, 2009)

The 1918 flu specialized in killing off the "young and healthy", and in a quick and gruesome fashion.

How much readier are we to cope with an explosive and very deadly virus now? One might observe in some ways, we are less so.


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## Archangel M (Apr 25, 2009)

Im pretty much with theseminds on this. Much like fretting over a meteor hitting the earth..Im not all for stressing the general population into ulcers over something we have very little control over. Whats the point of worrying ourselves to death over every danger that exists in the world. Take some sensible precautions and carry on.http://www.martialtalk.com/forum/member.php?u=2562


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## girlbug2 (Apr 25, 2009)

These epidemic diseases spread more quickly via airline travel in our modern times. Living in a first world country is not protection against exposure, far from it. Got a major airport in a nearby city? Does that airport see a lot of international travelers coming through? LAX, Denver International, Chicago OHare....if your nearest major city has one of these types of airports, you have an increased probability of getting the flu.

From my pov, the one great thing about the world recession is that it's likely to cut down a lot on airline travel this year. Hopefully the swine flu will be curtailed by that. 

But, like you, I'm not worried about it much anyway. Short of holing up in my home, I can't really do anything about it, so why waste mental energy thinking about it. Just wash your hands and take your vitamins.


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## Gordon Nore (Apr 25, 2009)

Empty Hands said:


> Flu is a deadly disease, we just don't think of it that way.  It kills mainly the young, the old, and the sick.  Flu can also be responsible for pandemics.  The "Forgotten Plague", the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918, infected 20% of the world, and killed off 2.5-5% of the total global population.  That, or worse, can happen again at any time.  No one should needlessly panic, but it is also irrational to pretend that flu pandemics can't or won't happen, or that they are nothing to worry about.  A 5% mortality pandemic today would kill around 300 million people - nearly the entire population of the US.
> 
> You are also right that your point of view is a privileged one.  Not everyone is young and healthy and has ready access to health care.



I think theseminds is right to the extent that people do tend to panic over these outbreaks. Toronto was home to a SARS outbreak several years ago, which, as Empty Hands pointed out, was a greater threat to the very young, the old, and those already sick. The paranoia that occasions these events adds to the overall stress. For instance, people are afraid to go the doctor's office or the hospital -- the latter is actually quite a safe place -- in these times.


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## Empty Hands (Apr 25, 2009)

Thesemindz said:


> Which is why, while I understand some concern in general for some parts of the world, I am not _personally_ concerned for _my_ part of the world.



I agree with the general point that panic is not warranted.  Influenza in the first world is more deadly than you give it credit for however.  It kills about 30,000 people each year in the US.  That puts it ahead of homicides, and not far from car accidents.  The Influenza/Pneumonia combined category is the 6th leading cause of death.


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## Thesemindz (Apr 25, 2009)

Empty Hands said:


> I agree with the general point that panic is not warranted. Influenza in the first world is more deadly than you give it credit for however. It kills about 30,000 people each year in the US. That puts it ahead of homicides, and not far from car accidents. The Influenza/Pneumonia combined category is the 6th leading cause of death.


 
Ok, that's fair, although I'd be interested to know if it's weighted more to pneumonia or influenza, but I'm still not personally concerned.

I guess in the end, it isn't that I don't think influenza is dangerous, it's just that I don't think it's a danger _to me._ There are far too many other things, like paying my rent, for me to worry about to waste time worried about the "swine flu."

Besides, I got _loads_ of vitamin B in case I do get sick.


-Rob


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## Archangel M (Apr 26, 2009)

So far..in the US (more cases have popped up)..the people getting Swine Flu appear to be reacting just like they have the "regular flu". They get sick for a while and they recover. Why its killing so many in Mexico is a good question.

Who hasnt had a bout of the flu in their lifetime? it IS a risk to your life, as EH said its a leading cause of death in the US already (the "normal" flu) and nobody is pulling their hair out.


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## Empty Hands (Apr 26, 2009)

Thesemindz said:


> Ok, that's fair, although I'd be interested to know if it's weighted more to pneumonia or influenza, but I'm still not personally concerned.



The diseases are co-morbid a lot of the time, which is why they are grouped.  However, deaths from straight influenza (30,000) count for about half the total combined deaths.


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## MA-Caver (Apr 26, 2009)

I don't think I'd be far off in quoting  Grand Moff Tarkin from "A New Hope".... "Fear, will keep the local systems in line, fear of this battle station." 

The battle station, for us anyway, could be war, terrorism, panademic diseases, recession, etc. etc. Whatever the current flavor might be. Just like a momma hen that lets her chicks out into the yard and then something "dangerous comes along" and the ones who survive are the ones that go scurrying quickly back under her wing. 

Rob, you're young and healthy. I applaud that sincerely. Keep at it. But I do ask you to take these events a little more seriously. You live in a first world country and that's good. It's by no way going to guarantee you won't be affected. 
Think upon these items for a moment. 
How easy is it for an infected person from a 3rd world country and fly on over here and mingle with the passengers on the jet, mingle with the folks at the customs, mingle with the folks at the airport to pick up baggage, mingle with the folks out on the sidewalk at the airport waiting for a ride or a cab and so on. How many folks have just been infected? How many of those so called 3rd world folks might be actual terrorist with the ultimate weapon? Remember Nigeria is a 3rd world country... how ironic that they can afford to hop on a plane (ironically funded by stupid people that fell for their banking schemes) and pay a visit to the New World? 
How easy is it to get INTO the country without anyone knowing about it? Just ask the thousands of illegals that have already been here for a few years. 
Read the first 50-60 pages of "The Stand" by Stephen King (if you haven't already... if you have, re-read it), the man did his research finding out how easy it is for a flu to spread quickly across state, national and international lines.

Swine Flu, Bird Flu, who cares? I do. But I'm of course not one of those running around the barnyard screaming and squawking my head off "the sky is falling, we're doomed the end is near and bla bla bla...ack!" 
But things to watch out for and to care about. 
We're a great country... but we are hell and gone from being invunerable.


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## Sukerkin (Apr 26, 2009)

A good mix of caution and sense in the posts above, ladies and gentlemen.

'Flu is indeed a much more dangerous disease than many give it credit for - in part because not only have the outbreaks been mild and contained (from our perspective) but from the simple linguistic quirk that has crept in of people taking time off work with "the 'flu" when in fact they have a cold i.e. the word has become disassociated with the actual disease.

The 'flu is a very dangerous virus indeed because it mutates so frequently and some of those mutations turn very deadly.  There is some speculation that the Black Death in Europe, which has for so long been blamed on the fleas on rats, was actually a 'flu epidemic.  If that's true, it gives some idea of how nasty it could be.


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## Archangel M (Apr 26, 2009)

The thing is, what is there that you or I can DO about it? I worry about things that I have control over. The only thing I can think of that we can do is make sure that the gvt has medical care and supplies ready in the event that they are necessary. Anything else is fretting over the falling sky. 

If it falls it falls. Im not going to escape it through panic anyways.


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## Sukerkin (Apr 26, 2009)

That is true.


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## Thesemindz (Apr 26, 2009)

MA-Caver said:


> I don't think I'd be far off in quoting Grand Moff Tarkin from "A New Hope".... "Fear, will keep the local systems in line, fear of this battle station."
> 
> The battle station, for us anyway, could be war, terrorism, panademic diseases, recession, etc. etc. Whatever the current flavor might be. Just like a momma hen that lets her chicks out into the yard and then something "dangerous comes along" and the ones who survive are the ones that go scurrying quickly back under her wing.
> 
> ...


 
Ok, I get your point, and I like The Stand, but what can I do to affect it anyway?

Like I said, I wash my hands, take a lot of B and C vitamins, eat a balanced diet, wear clean clothes, bathe regularly, dress warmly, I mean what else can I do?

So, if I can't do anything I'm not already doing to address the issue, then why should I stress over it? I know there are some sick people. I try not to kiss them when I see them. More than that, I just can't get worked up over.

If the flu comes and kills me, I guess I'll be dead. Until then, I know one thing I _won't_ be.

Bothered.


-Rob


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## Flea (Apr 26, 2009)

In 2002 I was still in journalism, and I vividly remember the day that my boss sat me down.  We had 2 cases of West Nile virus in the city recently.  One was a little old lady with other MAJOR health issues who didn't survive.  The other pulled through with mild sniffles.  The Health Department was only mildly interested in the whole thing and had no comment.

Why was this my problem?  It was an excruciatingly slow news day.  So my boss told me verbatim to "whip up as much frenzy as I can on the West Nile thing" in order to fill air time.  Panic, he said, I want panic!!

So ... I tend to be really skeptical about these things since then.

Oh.  And I didn't whip up any panic either.  My sense of journalistic ethics won out.  Sorry boss.


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## MA-Caver (Apr 26, 2009)

Flea said:


> In 2002 I was still in journalism, and I vividly remember the day that my boss sat me down.  We had 2 cases of West Nile virus in the city recently.  One was a little old lady with other MAJOR health issues who didn't survive.  The other pulled through with mild sniffles.  The Health Department was only mildly interested in the whole thing and had no comment.
> 
> Why was this my problem?  It was an excruciatingly slow news day.  So my boss told me verbatim to "whip up as much frenzy as I can on the West Nile thing" in order to fill air time.  Panic, he said, I want panic!!
> 
> ...


A rare journalist these days indeed. 

Fear, one of the best ways to control people if done correctly. It's one of the nastiest ways to control people as well.


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## grydth (Apr 26, 2009)

Buzz: Sheriff, this is no time to panic.

Woody: This is the PERFECT TIME to panic!

(From Toy Story)


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## Tez3 (Apr 27, 2009)

The flu has reached Spain and the European Commisioner for Health has suggested people shouldn't travel to America or Mexico.
I don't see people panicking here, I see the authorities taking sensible precautions against something which could be potentially very nasty. 
Incidentially washing your hands won't stop you catching it, wearing a mask may though.
One should always care about such things, just because you are young, fit and healthy, that doesn't mean your family is though. Older and younger people are going to be more vulnerable and saying I''m fit so I don't care' sounds remarkably unfeeling about your family and friends. Be concerned not panicked or overly worried as being totally hardhearted and self centred is never an attractive trait.


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## Stac3y (Apr 27, 2009)

Well, the Schertz Independent School System has shut down for the week because of this, and the public parks in the city affected (brain cramp) are closed. This is by San Antonio, about 45 minutes from me. I suspect this is overreaction. I really hope it is.


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## MA-Caver (Apr 27, 2009)

> *40 swine flu cases in US; agents checking borders*
> 
> By LAURAN NEERGAARD, AP Medical Writer        Lauran Neergaard, Ap Medical Writer               6 mins ago
> http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090427/ap_on_he_me/med_swine_fluWASHINGTON  U.S. officials said Monday they were acting aggressively to confront the spreading swine flu virus  now confirmed in 40 victims  while President Barack Obama said there was concern but not yet "a cause for alarm," A travel advisory was being prepared suggesting Americans not travel to Mexico, center of the outbreak.
> ...


Getting closer and closer all the time isn't it?


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## Archangel M (Apr 27, 2009)

Yet somehow Im still not panicked.


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## Archangel M (Apr 27, 2009)

"The bottom line on Swine Flu"

Some decent, "dont panic" advice on being prepared.


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## KELLYG (Apr 27, 2009)

I understand that the NEW FLU is dangerous.  But it seems like every day or two we are being hit with another cataclysmic event that is supposed to get us worked up into a frenzy and is designed to keep us that way.  Most of the things going on are so out of our control that one more thing is like so what!  There is nothing that I can about it anyway.  I will try to keep informed about what is going on but getting my blood pressure up over it is not going to happen.


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## Tames D (Apr 27, 2009)

I'll file this one with the KILLER BEE INVASION (shouldn't they be here by now????)  Not going to worry about it.


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## Tez3 (Apr 27, 2009)

So who is panicking? Nothing I've seen on television or read has anyone panicking, governments are not issuing anything that is likely to panic people, the medical officials are keeping calm and telling people not to worry so whats the story about really? 
The news stories from Mexico has people staying indoors and away from crowds, they are being issued face masks and good advice. They have reason to worry as so many have died there but they aren't panicking either. 
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8020222.stm


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## Thesemindz (Apr 27, 2009)

QUI-GON said:


> I'll file this one with the KILLER BEE INVASION (shouldn't they be here by now????) Not going to worry about it.


 
Actually, they are here now.

And it turns out it isn't that big a deal after all.


-Rob


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## Thesemindz (Apr 27, 2009)

Tez3 said:


> So who is panicking? Nothing I've seen on television or read has anyone panicking, governments are not issuing anything that is likely to panic people, the medical officials are keeping calm and telling people not to worry so whats the story about really?
> The news stories from Mexico has people staying indoors and away from crowds, they are being issued face masks and good advice. They have reason to worry as so many have died there but they aren't panicking either.
> http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8020222.stm


 
The people are panicking, that's who. I've had people call me and ask me if they should stockpile food. I have a relative who's flying to Arizona next week for a vacation, and she's afraid the government will cancel her trip. I've talked to people who are afraid they'll be told to stay home from work, or keep their kids out of school, or stay away from grocery stores.

There's panic already, partly because our current system of media and government control encourages a constant state of panic to make people easily led. Turn on your news, I'm willing to bet there's a story about it right now, or at least it's on the ticker.

Just for fun, I switched over to Fox News just now, and sure enough. Swine Flu.

So I flipped over to MSNBC, swine flu on the ticker.

So I flipped to CNN, swine flu on the ticker.

It was also on the cover of our local paper today.

I'm not saying it's not newsworthy, I'm saying the constant bombardment of "the sky is falling" leads people to panic.

And they are.


-Rob


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## Tames D (Apr 27, 2009)

Just tell everyone to calm down and everything is going to be alright. Oh, and California didn't fall into the ocean
	

	
	
		
		

		
			





. Remember that one? :rofl:


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## Thesemindz (Apr 27, 2009)

QUI-GON said:


> Oh, and California didn't fall into the ocean
> 
> 
> 
> ...


 
Yet.

Oooooooooooooooooohhhh....


-Rob


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## elder999 (Apr 27, 2009)

Tez3 said:


> The flu has reached Spain and the European Commisioner for Health has suggested people shouldn't travel to America or Mexico.
> I don't see people panicking here, I see the authorities taking sensible precautions against something which could be potentially very nasty.
> Incidentially washing your hands won't stop you catching it, wearing a mask may though


 

Actually, just the opposite is true.

Most surgical and other masks available will only catch objects more than 120 nanometers in diameter. At 80-100 nanometers, the flu virus itself can pass through these. It does, however, tend to be transported on larger objects-saliva, mucous, dust particles and the like, and these will be stopped by the mask-airborne transmission is not entirely ruled out, though. Best way I've heard it put:_the masks will stop spittle, but they might not stop *the flu*._

Additionally, the flu virus can survive and be transferred on surfaces: shopping carts, ATM's,and, most notably, _hands_. Purchasing a hand cleanser like Purell gel with VF81, or GSE, with an antiviral component (_bleach,_ essentially) and _using_ it, can help prevent contracting and/or spreading the flu.


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## Sukerkin (Apr 27, 2009)

The panic-mode continues to spread, virus like indeed, as our news is now splattered all over with the fact that there have been two cases in Scotland now ... urgent searches are in effect to track down those the infected have been in contact with.

Be afraid ... be afraid ... trust your government ...


As I said earlier, common sense precautions are all we can take.  As other have said, the stress of fretting ourselves to a frazzle is probably worse than the actual risk.


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## Thesemindz (Apr 27, 2009)

Evidence is now appearing that at least some of the supposed deaths in Mexico from swine flu were actually the result of some other, as yet unidentified cause.

So, as usual, we see a panic created by the government and the media, based on events which were originally "misinterpreted."

But the result _is_ panic, and people crying out "save us, save us."

Again, I'm not denying the existence of Swine Flu, or the danger any kind of flu can represent. I'm just saying that at least _some_ of the panic I'm seeing is the result of misinformation and media cycles.


-Rob


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## Gordon Nore (Apr 27, 2009)

Mexico is the wild card in all of this because of what we don't know, as opposed to what we do know. As of today, I believe there have been 150 deaths in Mexico. Out of how many people who have been infected?

Comparatively, what (?) forty confirmed cases in the USA, eight in Canada, with no fatalities so far, and people apparently recovering and doing quite well. A number of reports today have pointed out that the US normally sees 36,000 deaths a year due to seasonal flu.


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## Bruno@MT (Apr 28, 2009)

Thesemindz said:


> I
> It's not that hard to stay healthy.



Actually, having a healthy immune system can kill you. This is what made the 1918 flu special: it triggered a cytokine storm, which is basically your immune system attacking your body. And your body responeds to this by... putting your immune system in even higher gear so that it can kill you even faster.

The 1918 flku killed those would had the best immune systems: young adults. Not primarily the old, the young and the infirm as a normal flu would do. Those had much weaker immune systems, so their demographic had much better survival odds.

So whatever you do, don't take even more vitamins


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## Tez3 (Apr 28, 2009)

Well all I can say is that some of you seem to know people who panic easily, I can put my hand on my heart and say no one I know is panicking and I've seen no sign of it anywhere. It may be that it takes a lot more to panic an Englishman lol! 
Hardly anyone is talking about it around my way, we're still reeling from the way the government has treated the Gurkhas (more about that I'm making a thread) no ones mentioned it on any forum I go on other than this one. It's not been on our local news only the national news and I don't see people wandering the streets weeping and wailing. I suspect panic is in the eye of the beholder.


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## Bruno@MT (Apr 28, 2009)

Tez3 said:


> Well all I can say is that some of you seem to know people who panic easily, I can put my hand on my heart and say no one I know is panicking and I've seen no sign of it anywhere. It may be that it takes a lot more to panic an Englishman lol!



Experience I guess... 

Anything that doesn't disfigure half the European population or covers them in boils, and then kills off most of the victims is not worth talking about. The general feeling here is best expressed as: 'Meh'.


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## Tez3 (Apr 28, 2009)

Bruno@MT said:


> Experience I guess...
> 
> Anything that doesn't disfigure half the European population or covers them in boils, and then kills off most of the victims is not worth talking about. The general feeling here is best expressed as: 'Meh'.


 
Yep thats how it is round here! 
We've had to deal with Foot and Mouth epidemic so it'll have to be far worse than that before we panicked lol!
I was stuck in a city when a child due to a typhoid epidemic, police blocked the roads out we weren't allowed to leave. No body panicked them either, as kids it was great, they closed the schools!

http://www.historyscotland.com/features/aberdeentyphoid.html


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## Sukerkin (Apr 28, 2009)

Aye, it is true that despite the best efforts of the blanket media to scare everyone it's actually having very little effect on the ground.  Indeed, if anything the mood is of humour e.g. a cough or sneeze is immediately followed by an impression of a pig grunting :lol:.


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## Tez3 (Apr 28, 2009)

Sukerkin said:


> Aye, it is true that despite the best efforts of the blanket media to scare everyone it's actually having very little effect on the ground. Indeed, if anything the mood is of humour e.g. a cough or sneeze is immediately followed by an impression of a pig grunting :lol:.


 

Lol! I can see a fair few people trying to get days off for this, if you report you've been to Mexico or been with people who have and you have flu like victims you get sent off to hospital for a few days. I wonder.....


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## theletch1 (Apr 28, 2009)

Tez3 said:


> Yep thats how it is round here!
> We've had to deal with Foot and Mouth epidemic so it'll have to be far worse than that before we panicked lol!
> I was stuck in a city when a child due to a typhoid epidemic, police blocked the roads out we weren't allowed to leave. No body panicked them either, as kids it was great, they closed the schools!
> 
> http://www.historyscotland.com/features/aberdeentyphoid.html


I've seen enough footage of Brits during the German air campaign of WWII sitting calmly in bunkers with an almost "ho-hum" look on their faces as air sirens wailed to completely understand that something like the flu isn't likely to upset ya'll too much.  Quite the plucky lot.  

A big part of the problem, IMO, is that folks almost seem to need a crisis in this country to keep them happy.  Sad, really.  We've got it good here in the USA.  So good, in fact, that we've had to create diseases.  Road rage dis-order, cell phone addiction and any number of "dis-orders" that are custom made to give folks who have it very well a reason to put on the "victim mantle".  Bah, let me know when Ebola gets loose and then I'll think about taking panic into consideration.


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## crushing (Apr 28, 2009)

Empty Hands said:


> Flu is a deadly disease, we just don't think of it that way. [...]  A 5% mortality pandemic today would kill around 300 million people - nearly the entire population of the US.


 
Grapevine time.

Given the state of the media, how long would it take for a perfectly legitimate quote like the one above from Empty Hands to turn in to something outrageous like, "The Swine Flu may be so deadly it could just about wipe out the entire population of US."


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## Tez3 (Apr 28, 2009)

crushing said:


> Grapevine time.
> 
> Given the state of the media, how long would it take for a perfectly legitimate quote like the one above from Empty Hands to turn in to something outrageous like, "The Swine Flu may be so deadly it could just about wipe out the entire population of US."


 

I think people do underestimate the danger from many diseases we've come to think of as harmless. Measles still kills children in this country, and can leave children handicapped. Mumps can leave children deaf, both measles and mumps can lead onto meningitis, a killer in it's own right. Chickenpox in adults can be severe and lead to serious complications.
It's long been known that the flu virus can be fatal not just to the old, very young or those with lung complaints. We've just taken it for granted that the flu we get makes us feel miserable but not that it can be fatal. the Swine fever outbreak has just reminded us that's all.
The 1918 outbreak of flu killed between 20-40 million people so we are right to be concerned, _we are also right to not to panic_.
http://virus.stanford.edu/uda/

We should remain as informed as we can, underestimating any disease may be a mistake but flapping around at 40,00 feet isn't going to do anyone any good either.

The two patients diagnosed with Swine Fever in Scotland are being treated and are expected to make a complete recovery. As someone said once "We have the technology,..."


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## Thesemindz (Apr 28, 2009)

I just recently read that the swine flu may be so deadly it could just about wipe out the entire population of the US.

Now I'm scared.


-Rob


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## Archangel M (Apr 28, 2009)

World daily death rate...


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## Gordon Nore (Apr 28, 2009)

Bruno@MT said:


> Actually, having a healthy immune system can kill you. This is what made the 1918 flu special: it triggered a cytokine storm, which is basically your immune system attacking your body.



Just learned of this today. Shudder.


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## Drachonius117 (Apr 29, 2009)

So the healthier we are the more likely we are to die?!!?

*Ahem* Please excuse me while I go lick a toilet bowl and roll in some dirt.... lol


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## CoryKS (Apr 29, 2009)

If I know my son's school, they've already signed a contract for some damn state-of-the-art, spare-no-expense, swine flu-specific air scrubbing system and are writing up the bond that our panic-stricken neighbors will pass unquestioningly. They'll probably spend a little more for the low-emission model so they can congratulate themselves for being "green" as well.

I'd rather proceed with caution than panic. But I'm sure we'll see at least one bright star in the next few weeks kill his family on accident by taping plastic over all the windows.


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## Bruno@MT (Apr 30, 2009)

If there is going to be a killer pandemic, we'll die.
If there isn't then we won't (die of the flu, that is).

Either way, beyond the basic things that we already (should) do everyday (washing hands, not coughing in someone's face, etc) there is nothing we can do. No point in worrying.

The only difference between this and the idea of dying in a traffic incident (apart from the fact that the latter is much more likely) is that we've gotten used to the idea, and convinced that it won't happen to us. Everything gets old.


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## Darksoul (Apr 30, 2009)

-Not looking to hijack the thread but wanted to throw something else in the pot. I suppose it could be another thread though not sure if its been discussed before.

-One thing I like watching on T.V. is end of the world shows, last days, mayan calendar and all that. Major natural disasters and such. And I think I like it because its distracting. Anyways, is it about time for the world to have another major pandemic wipe out millions? Not something I want to advocate, btw, just wonder if a pandemic is a natural thing.

-And if it is, maybe we should be concerned...?

"The center does not hold." S. King


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## Bruno@MT (Apr 30, 2009)

There is no such thing as 'it is time' or 'we are overdue' with issues like this.
It is a matter of statistics. Throwing 'heads' 10 times in a row is improbable. But if you have thrown heads 9 times, the odds of throwing 'heads' at the 10th toss is still 50%.

The same applies to killer asteroids or pandemics.
Both are natural occurences, but they are not bound by regular intervals.


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## Guardian (Apr 30, 2009)

I work out of our Public Health Department.  What makes this Swine Flu or the fancy name they have for it now a worry for folks is that it's mutated from the Swine/Bird/Human Flu's, kind of a mixture and they have no shot for it and we have no immunity for it, so sick or healthly does not matter with this one.

The reason Mexico was hit so hard is their health care system is seriously lagging, by the time they figured out what this was, many had it and it had gone into the advance stages where treatment was worthless.

Those exposed and diagnosised in time, supposedly had no problems recovering.  There are a couple of Anti-Viral meds out there that work wonders on it.  Plus their sanitary conditions might not be as good as ours.

I  agree, we can't worry ourselves to death over it, but taking pre-cautions is justa wise thing to do.


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## Thems Fighting Words (Apr 30, 2009)

SO the World Health Comission has put it's alert up to Level-5, the second highest alert possible (Level-6 is a full blown Pandemic). Does anyone know what this Level-5 actually means? How does it affect travel, trade etc?


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## Thesemindz (Apr 30, 2009)

The World Health Organization also puts the official number of Swine Flu deaths at...

Drum Roll?

8.

8.

Not 152. 

8.

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_04_30_a/en/index.html

I'm not saying, I'm just saying.


-Rob


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## blindsage (Apr 30, 2009)

If you're really concerned, this website can help.

http://doihaveswineflu.org/


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## Thesemindz (Apr 30, 2009)

Well that settles it.


-Rob


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## Archangel M (Apr 30, 2009)

When your job (and funding) depends on predicting pandemics I suppose you have to scare the populace every once and a while to keep your job secure.

Im more worried about a "cry wolf" situation than anything else. If these organizations start a "black death" hype each and every time some new pandemic is declared, Im worried people are going to brush off what turns out to be a real threat. They have to create some sort of balanced message. Of course, the media and its thirst for blood isnt helping matters.


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## Thems Fighting Words (Apr 30, 2009)

Archangel M said:


> When your job (and funding) depends on predicting pandemics I suppose you have to scare the populace every once and a while to keep your job secure.
> 
> Im more worried about a "cry wolf" situation than anything else. If these organizations start a "black death" hype each and every time some new pandemic is declared, Im worried people are going to brush off what turns out to be a real threat. They have to create some sort of balanced message. Of course, the media and its thirst for blood isnt helping matters.



Yeah, balance is a big concern. Level-5 actually means a pandemic is imminent. The Spanish flu (which was so deadly because it induced hypercytokinemia and thus targeted the most healthy) was Level-6. The Honk Kong flu which killed one million or so was only Level-2.


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## elder999 (Apr 30, 2009)

The funny thing about the much postulated, but as yet to truly materialize "flu pandemic," is that it's not so much a matter of "if," as a matter of "when."

Then again, I live near a large, ostensibly active volcano-the Valles Caldera-which is "due" to erupt. Which could mean *NOW*, or 6,000 years or so from now....which, geologically speaking, is _about_ *NOW*, I suppose. :lol:

Not a matter of "if," though-a matter of _"when?_"

In any case, to recap: this flu is scarybecause no one knows how this particular strain, which combines elements of avian flu with swine flu and is transmitted by humans, actually came to be- or even _could have_-this is what has health authorities quaking in their boots, though someone I've been in contact with speculates that that big old Mexican pig farm in that region (ConAgra or someone has about 130,000 acres of hogs in the area where this first appeared) had some pigs that ate some infected bird doo-doo.

Odds are good we'll never know, though. IN any case, better that the health control powers that be are overreacting than not reacting at all-and, trust me, they're *not* _over_ reacting. They're just reacting. Not a whole lot much more that they can do, right now, and the concensus really seems to be "wait until Thanksgiving, when the *real* flu season starts, and see what happens....."

Someone mentioned "Mexican health care." Actually, as someone who goes to Mexico as often as I can (keep my boat there, have a condo in one place and a house in the town named after one of my ancestor's ships....) I can say that Mexico actually has pretty good health care-good enough that *a lot* of Americans go there for dentistry, elective surgery, knee and hip replacements, and other things.....I can also add that you can get almost _anything_ over the counter in a Mexican pharmacy-we stay well stocked with broad spectrum antibiotics, tamiflu and....other things.....for my boat, ya see? In any case, Mexico City has really, really, *really* bad air, and when this first started I theorized that a lot of the people there already have compromised respiratory systems-the kind of people who are susceptible to the complications from the flu that kill (most people whose death is attributed to the "flu," actually die from pneumonia and other complications....). That's one factor, another being the likelihood that most of those that died didn't get medical attention in time, because they _didn't seek it in time_. By the time they got to the hospital or doctor, they already had pneumonia, and were well on there way.......*out*.

Whic brings us to the other thing, that most of those people who have died weren't really on the "short list" of people who can die from the flu. Also scary....

The other thing being, of course, that the WHO protocol for positively identifying those who have died from this particular flu-or, rather, _complications_ from this particular flu-is hampered by a variety of things, not the least of which is being unable to obtain tissue samples on those who have been quickly buried or cremated, which, given Mexico's brand of Catholicism, can sometimes be pretty quick.

Additionally, the culture down there is one that allows for quicker transmission of this sort of thing at this time of year: most of my friends there typically offer a kiss on the cheek and a hug along with a handshake. Lots of people go to church. Lots of people meet on the streets and kiss and hug. At church. At school. At the movies.On their rather large public transportation system.

You get the idea. Not nearly as much of that here in the U.S.-in addition to the fact that most of us not only get to the doctor pretty quick (especially under the spectre of "pandemic") but also have pretty good access to the right medications....

In any case, being "scared" is sort of like being "scared" of that asteroid that supposed to hit the Earth-today, tonight? Tomorrow? 11,000 years from now? Not a matter of "if," it's a matter of "when," and if it's _now_, well, there's not a damned thing most of us can do about it, except what we're told, or think is best......wash, wash, wash, wear a mask for all the good it'll actually do, stay home if you're inclined-avoid public transportation and crowded places.....or, just go on with your life and take your chances.Mostly won't really make any difference......

....in the meantime, though, with apologies to Eric Clapton and Creem, and a nod of the head to Bill Mattocks and Andy Moynihan:

_Swine Flu_ (to the tune of _Strange Brew,_ by Creem)

_Swine flu-kill what&#8217;s inside of you._
_It&#8217;s a nasty virus that first came from birds, _
_then it went to pigs when they ate their turds_
*bird turds.*
_Now isn&#8217;t that absurd?_
_Swine flu-kill what&#8217;s inside of you._

_It&#8217;s some kind of demon, made of superglue_
_if you don&#8217;t watch out it&#8217;ll stick to you_
_to you_
_Now what ya gonna do?_
_Swine flu-get stuck inside of you._

_In a subway car down below some town_
_It will spread itself till there&#8217;s nobody_
_around_
_You&#8217;d best get outta town!_
_Swine flu-kill what&#8217;s inside of you._


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## Tez3 (May 1, 2009)

Spent half of yeaterday in a briefing about what we'll do if we have a break outbreak where we are. We have a population of thousands of soldiers so we have the problem if anything infectious arrives of what to do with thousands of sick people! They don't have to be very ill, even ordinary flu or a virus can cause havoc when you have to bed down that many people.
The medical officers aren't concerned too much about the actual swine flu, they are just trying to work out how to look after all those poorly men/boys because everyone knows that 'man flu' is really bad!
The worst thing is the jokes!
"I went to my doctor with the swine flu..he gave me some oinkment and told me to baconing back on Friday" yeah well.


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## crushing (May 1, 2009)

Interesting site:

http://www.swine-flu-map-animation.com/


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## shesulsa (May 1, 2009)

A university in Oregon is shut down because of a confirmed case of Influenza A, the predetermination for swine flu.  There are a few confirmed Influenza A cases in the Seattle area and one in Tacoma and the news said today it could take a week to determine if the strain is the dreaded swine flu.

A week.

Meanwhile, I was driving the main drag yesterday and saw a man sitting on the side of the road in front of a now-closed abandoned small craft airport selling "Swine Flu Masks" from the back of his car.  

From Wiki:


> On February 5, 1976, in the United States an army recruit at Fort Dix said he felt tired and weak. He died the next day and four of his fellow soldiers were later hospitalized. Two weeks after his death, health officials announced that the cause of death was a new strain of swine flu. The strain, a variant of H1N1, is known as A/New Jersey/1976 (H1N1). It was detected only from January 19 to February 9 and did not spread beyond Fort Dix.[49]



If you go to that article, you can read the problems associated with the vaccination program and read that the vaccine wound up killing more people than the virus did.

From the same article:


> In September 1988, a swine flu virus killed one woman in Wisconsin, and infected at least hundreds of others. 32-year old Barbara Ann Wieners was eight months pregnant when she and her husband, Ed, became ill after visiting the hog barn at the Walworth County Fair. Barbara died eight days later, though doctors were able to induce labor and deliver a healthy daughter before she passed away. Her husband recovered from his symptoms.
> Influenza-like illnesses were reportedly widespread among the pigs at the fair they had visited, and 76% of the swine exhibitors there tested positive for the swine flu antibody but no serious illnesses were detected among this group. Additional studies suggested between one and three health care personnel who had contact with the patient developed mild influenza-like illnesses with antibody evidence of swine flu infection.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swine_flu#cite_note-55



It's good to remember to keep your mucus membranes moist but clean, especially if you're a medicated allergy sufferer who is drying out right about now.

We are avoiding fast food service and public restrooms and everyone's carrying hand sanitizer.


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## Thesemindz (May 1, 2009)

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,518578,00.html

Signs Point to Milder Swine Flu Outbreak Than Once Feared



> As further evidence that this strain of the H1N1 influenza virus is looking a little less ominous, a U.S. health official says it lacks the genes that made the 1918 pandemic strain so deadly.
> And a flu expert in New York says *there's no reason to believe the new virus is a more serious strain than seasonal flu*.


 
Shocker.

Wait, does this mean the government and the media colluded in creating a false panic? Nah. That'd be paranoid.


-Rob


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## Archangel M (May 1, 2009)

I dont think the media "creates a panic" for any reason other than getting ratings.


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## Bruno@MT (May 2, 2009)

Thesemindz said:


> http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,518578,00.html
> 
> Signs Point to Milder Swine Flu Outbreak Than Once Feared
> 
> ...



Not at all paranoid.
I don't believe the government did this 'on purpose'.
The problem is that the general population _expects _the gov to do something in cases like this. So they start tracking things, issuing warnings, etc.

And of course the press jumps on this and in the absence of any real news, they drumup as much doomsday scenarios as possible, because there is no news like bad news.

Which is exactly why I (and most of the people I know) didn't really care.


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## Tez3 (May 2, 2009)

I phoned my doctor yesterday as I thought I might have the swine flu but it was a really bad line, all I could get was crackling.


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## crushing (May 2, 2009)

Bruno@MT said:


> And of course the press jumps on this and in the absence of any real news, they drumup as much doomsday scenarios as possible, because there is no news like bad news.
> 
> Which is exactly why I (and most of the people I know) didn't really care.



There is real news, real news including what is going on in Pakistan and the increasing violence again in Iraq and Afghanistan.


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## Thesemindz (May 2, 2009)

Archangel M said:


> I dont think the media "creates a panic" for any reason other than getting ratings.


 
Are you saying that's an acceptable reason? Or are you just saying that's why they do it?

'Cause it seems kinda obvious they do it.


-Rob


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## Thesemindz (May 2, 2009)

crushing said:


> There is real news, real news including what is going on in Pakistan and the increasing violence again in Iraq and Afghanistan.


 
Hmmm. So why, in the presence of _real _news, like the increasing violence in two countries we have supposedly pacified, or the impending overthrow of an allied state by terrorist forces we chased into their country in the first place, or the failure of major american corporations only weeks after receiving millions in federal aid, would the media and the government focus on a handful of people getting a seasonal illness?

One _might_ think it's because they want us distracted from what's going on. 


-Rob


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## rhn_kenpo (May 2, 2009)

This whole situation reminds me of the first rainstroms that hit So. California each year.  Local news channels go nuts with endless 'stormwatch' coverage and dispatch reporters to stand in front of stormdrains and say things like 'gee, sure is wet out here'.  

In short, they predictably lose their minds for awhile.  Yes, sometimes we have incredible rains that cause a lot of damage.  But the vast majority of the time, they are just spinning what is essentially a non-event.

I struggled to see what was really noteworthy about this flu strain from the very first reports.  All flu strains circle the globe, many times.  The garden variety annual flu bug kills about 36k US citizens each year, or about 100 per day during flu season.  Globally that means about 400+ deaths per day is 'normal'.  

And this particular strain was known to health officials in Mexico as early as the first week of March.  Had it been a real killer, hospitals in Mexico and the US would have been bursting by the end of March.  That didn't happen.  The fatality rate of H5N1 remains about 60%, and it does not respond to modern anti-virals.  The H1N1 strain does and mortality rates seem about average thus far globally, although they are oddly high in Mexico.  

Conditions can change daily, but thus far, media hysteria seems way overdone.


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## Archangel M (May 2, 2009)

Thesemindz said:


> Hmmm. So why, in the presence of _real _news, like the increasing violence in two countries we have supposedly pacified, or the impending overthrow of an allied state by terrorist forces we chased into their country in the first place, or the failure of major american corporations only weeks after receiving millions in federal aid, would the media and the government focus on a handful of people getting a seasonal illness?
> 
> One _might_ think it's because they want us distracted from what's going on.
> 
> ...



I think its because the media knows that we (a collective we) tune out stuff like that...threaten us with a "killer flu" that could harm our children and we will tune in....

Follow the money...Ill believe in ratings over some collusion w/ government any day.


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## Thesemindz (May 3, 2009)

Archangel M said:


> I think its because the media knows that we (a collective we) tune out stuff like that...threaten us with a "killer flu" that could harm our children and we will tune in....
> 
> Follow the money...Ill believe in ratings over some collusion w/ government any day.


 
Why can't it be both?

If it weren't for the state, the news organizations wouldn't have much to cover, so they have a vested interest in looking out for their friends in government.

But if it weren't for the viewers tuning in to watch the news, they couldn't sell all that expensive advertising.

So it's a win-win. Cover the stories the government wants covered and create a panic. Everybody tunes in to watch your commercials, err, hard hitting news stories, and your pals in D.C. show up on Sunday for interviews, and maybe give you a bailout somewhere down the road if things get tough.

And nobody spends time worrying about the issues that are actually important. The ones that might cost more then 8 lives.


-Rob


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## Makalakumu (May 3, 2009)

Archangel M said:


> I dont think the media "creates a panic" for any reason other than getting ratings.



You might be right, but it also could be an overly optimistic way of looking at things.  We are just getting to the "someone has to do something phase" so just wait and see.


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## Thems Fighting Words (May 3, 2009)

Tez3 said:


> I phoned my doctor yesterday as I thought I might have the swine flu but it was a really bad line, all I could get was crackling.



And so it begins.... 

My ultra-feminist mother in-law blames men. Seeing as all men are pigs. :mst:


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## Bruno@MT (May 3, 2009)

crushing said:


> There is real news, real news including what is going on in Pakistan and the increasing violence again in Iraq and Afghanistan.



But the sheople don't care about them -> It won't sell -> It's not front page material.


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## Archangel M (May 3, 2009)

maunakumu said:


> You might be right, but it also could be an overly optimistic way of looking at things.  We are just getting to the "someone has to do something phase" so just wait and see.



Optimistic?


Lets just say that I don't see "men in black" behind every phone pole.


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## Makalakumu (May 3, 2009)

Archangel M said:


> Optimistic?
> 
> 
> Lets just say that I don't see "men in black" behind every phone pole.



The nanotech cameras watch from behind the telephone poles...LOL!


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## shesulsa (May 4, 2009)

I'm in a little bit of a hurry this a.m. so if anyone else posted this, all apologies.



> TRUE OR FALSE? The influenza epidemic of 1918 killed more people than died in World War I?
> 
> Hard as it is to believe, the answer is *true*.
> 
> ...



Archive record
Documents & photos
Stanford's page in the pandemic

My husband and I were astonished last night to hear how many lives this virus claimed back then and when you take into consideration how much lower the population and saturation was not quite 90 years ago the devastation must have been incredible.


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## grydth (May 4, 2009)

On the 1918 pandemic, I would suggest reading "The Great Influenza" by John M. Barry. Better written than most works of fiction. Barry chronicles how the virus started out weak in Spring 1918 as well, but after enough "passages" through human hosts, it mutated into the brutally effective killer that was highly contagious and quick to kill.

Estimates of deaths range from 20 to 100 million, and many of those in the prime of life. 

This virus may not take the mutation direction the one in 1918 did, but if it does, we are in potentially terrible trouble. It all may come down to whether we have the time to develope and disseminate the vaccine in time.


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## rhn_kenpo (May 4, 2009)

The GLOBAL count of H1N1 infections is less than 1,000.

Yes, LESS than 1,000.

I'd guess there are at least 20,000,000 suffering from the flu worldwide today, and a good number of those will die from their illness.

This entire situation is a product of media hysteria and very damaging.  The WHO's rating system is a fiasco.   

What next, media panic over killer bees?


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## Gordon Nore (May 4, 2009)

grydth said:


> On the 1918 pandemic, I would suggest reading "The Great Influenza" by John M. Barry. Better written than most works of fiction. Barry chronicles how the virus started out weak in Spring 1918 as well, but after enough "passages" through human hosts, it mutated into the brutally effective killer that was highly contagious and quick to kill.



I was listening to report on this on CBC last week. So far, the current H1N1 is nowhere near as impactful a seasonal flu, but as the seasonal flu is winding down by this time of year, the H1N1 is just starting up. As with 1918, researchers don't know what future form the H1N1 will take. Note: There was a second wave of Swine Flu in 1918.

This seems to be what's driving the reticence of researchers and investigators to pronounce the current outbreak as less serious than normal flu. So far, yes, the effects are currently quite mild, and that needs to be emphasized against the media announcements of 'deadly flu.'


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## Tez3 (May 4, 2009)

'Normal' flu kills around four thousand people every year in the UK something which I think is overlooked by us. We campaign for better treatment for Aids, cancer etc but forget that people die every year from something that most of us think of as a nuisance.
The problem may be that the swine flu will inadvertently cause more deaths from 'winter' flu as the authorities are considering cutting back on the vaccines they use for 'winter' flu to make more swine flu vaccines available. 
This warning about the importance of being vaccinated is from 2007 and shows who is vulnerable to the flu. 
http://nds.coi.gov.uk/environment/f...022&NewsAreaID=2&NavigatedFromDepartment=True


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## grydth (May 4, 2009)

That's true - - - "normal flu" kills many thousands more in the USA each year. Swine flu, or H1N1, is a throw of the dice.... it could well mutate into a harmless form, and wind up killing very few before fading away. Or, already very contagous, it could mutate into a killer whose worldwide toll could far surpass the 1918 figure. The speed and lethality of the 1918 virus is so horrifying as to almost sound like science fiction.


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