# What Percentage of People Have Achieved the Rank of Shodan or Equivalent?



## Rusty B (Nov 23, 2020)

I was inspired to come up with this, in light of a discussion on another thread in the Kenpo section about the likelihood of running into a common thug with a martial arts background.

And I do apologize if a thread like this already exists.

I'm almost positive that no country in the world has a martial arts equivalent to the Department of Education or Bureau of Labor & Statistics that tracks this.

We know that, in the US for example, that 30% of adults over 25 have at least a bachelor's degree, 10% have at least a master's degree, and about 2% have a PhD or other research-based doctorate (these are rough numbers, as I haven't looked at the statistics in a while).

But what about people who've earned a black belt, or other equivalent rank in martial arts?

I've attempted to Google this, and the best I can come up with is martial arts club owners stating that only 1 or 2 percent of students who log their first hour as a white belt will stick around to earn a black belt.

But that's just the people who've started in the first place.  We need to look at the population at large.

Does anyone here have any more in-depth knowledge on this?


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## wab25 (Nov 23, 2020)

Thats not the right question to ask. People get a black belt, or shodan for all kinds of reasons. It does not mean that they can all fight. (I would bet on a wet paper bag over quite a number of Black Belts I have seen...) Too many 6-7 year olds getting black belts, too many people getting black belts because they can wave their hands in the air without having any idea of what they are doing, too many people getting black belts without ever having tried to apply what they have "learned" against someone who does not want them to succeed.


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## Rusty B (Nov 23, 2020)

wab25 said:


> Thats not the right question to ask. People get a black belt, or shodan for all kinds of reasons. It does not mean that they can all fight. (I would bet on a wet paper bag over quite a number of Black Belts I have seen...) Too many 6-7 year olds getting black belts, too many people getting black belts because they can wave their hands in the air without having any idea of what they are doing, too many people getting black belts without ever having tried to apply what they have "learned" against someone who does not want them to succeed.



Whether or not you feel it's the right question to ask, it IS the question that I'm asking.  I'm fairly certain that there are black belts who can't fight, and I'm sure that are people who can beat 90% of anyone they even look at, and without ever having stepped foot into a dojo.

But that's not the question I'm asking.  I'm asking the percentage of people who've attained a black belt or equivalent.


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## dvcochran (Nov 23, 2020)

It is still pretty low. I have read and tracked it to be about 5% of the people globally. Of course estimates vary country by country. Surprisingly the US is closer to 2%.


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## wab25 (Nov 23, 2020)

Rusty B said:


> I was inspired to come up with this, in light of a discussion on another thread in the Kenpo section about the likelihood of running into a common thug with a martial arts background.


Why would one care if he ran into a common thug, who had a black belt... that he earned at age 8, and who had never actually tried to to apply his art against resistance? He wouldn't do any better than someone who had not earned a black belt at age 8.



Rusty B said:


> I'm asking the percentage of people who've attained a black belt or equivalent.


What is the equivalent to a black belt? One black belt is not even equivalent to another... so how are you defining something to be equivalent to a black belt?


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## Rusty B (Nov 23, 2020)

wab25 said:


> Why would one care if he ran into a common thug, who had a black belt... that he earned at age 8, and who had never actually tried to to apply his art against resistance? He wouldn't do any better than someone who had not earned a black belt at age 8.



If I cared about the point that you're trying to make with this question, I'd answer it.  But I don't.



> What is the equivalent to a black belt? One black belt is not even equivalent to another... so how are you defining something to be equivalent to a black belt?



One could argue that a bachelor's degree in psychology is not equal to a bachelor's degree in physics, but in the bigger picture, those are nuances that the DOE and BLS are not concerned with.


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## skribs (Nov 23, 2020)

It would be a very difficult question to answer.  There are a number of factors as to why:

Defining the data.  What is your definition of "shodan"?  If it's just a 1st degree black belt, there will be a lot more in arts like Taekwondo (probably an average of 2-3 years) than in arts like BJJ (7-12 years).  Or are you going to come up with some sort of equivalent system (for example, a BJJ purple belt is roughly equal to a TKD 1st degree black belt)?  What about arts that don't have a belt system?  Boxing, muay thai, wrestling, etc. don't have belt systems.  Is there some sort of equivalent amount of training you'd ask for?
Gathering the data.  Some organizations publish their numbers, some don't.  Even if the organization does, there may be schools that are off shoots that don't report to the organization.  Some don't even have an organization, and just Student B leaves School A to become Teacher B.  So you would need to do a survey.  
I believe most quotes about how many people get a certain rank are just using made up numbers.  For example, one girl used a quote in her essay for 3rd Dan, which stated:

1 in 10 people who try martial arts stay past the trial period
1 in 100 get their black belt
1 in 1,000 get their 2nd degree
1 in 10,000 get their 3rd degree
Based on the nice round numbers, I'm pretty sure this quote doesn't have any actual statistics to back it up.


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## skribs (Nov 23, 2020)

Rusty B said:


> If I cared about the point that you're trying to make with this question, I'd answer it. But I don't.



There's a lot of people on this forum that like to take a question, use it as a rabbit trail to talk about something else, and then accuse you of asking a bad question or not listening when you don't find their advice helpful.


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## Rusty B (Nov 23, 2020)

skribs said:


> There's a lot of people on this forum that like to take a question, use it as a rabbit trail to talk about something else, and then accuse you of asking a bad question or not listening when you don't find their advice helpful.



Exactly.  I'm well aware of the tactic of people trying to move the conversation to a place where they feel they have home field advantage; and how to skirt that.


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## wab25 (Nov 23, 2020)

skribs said:


> There's a lot of people on this forum that like to take a question, use it as a rabbit trail to talk about something else, and then accuse you of asking a bad question or not listening when you don't find their advice helpful.


Wasn't trying to do that at all.



Rusty B said:


> Exactly. I'm well aware of the tactic of people trying to move the conversation to a place where they feel they have home field advantage; and how to skirt that.


Wasn't trying to do this either.

I must have been confused by the question. When I read this:


Rusty B said:


> I was inspired to come up with this, in light of a discussion on another thread in the Kenpo section about the likelihood of running into a common thug with a martial arts background.


I thought you were asking to know how likely it would be to have to deal with a common thug who had been trained in martial arts and would thus be harder to deal with, because of that training. So, I was pointing out that many people have black belts, but wouldn't be any harder to deal with. Should we really be considering people who have trained x number of years, since becoming a certain age (15)? Should we factor in the sport component that many arts have? Should we factor in training against resistance?

Apparently, thats not the question being asked... so I apologize.

Still not sure why suggesting that someone who earned a black belt, should know why they were waving their hands about like that is disliked... or suggesting that they should try to apply their techniques against an uncooperative opponent would be disliked. But, whatever floats your boat...


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## Rusty B (Nov 23, 2020)

skribs said:


> It would be a very difficult question to answer.  There are a number of factors as to why:
> 
> Defining the data.  What is your definition of "shodan"?  If it's just a 1st degree black belt, there will be a lot more in arts like Taekwondo (probably an average of 2-3 years) than in arts like BJJ (7-12 years).  Or are you going to come up with some sort of equivalent system (for example, a BJJ purple belt is roughly equal to a TKD 1st degree black belt)?  What about arts that don't have a belt system?  Boxing, muay thai, wrestling, etc. don't have belt systems.  Is there some sort of equivalent amount of training you'd ask for?
> Gathering the data.  Some organizations publish their numbers, some don't.  Even if the organization does, there may be schools that are off shoots that don't report to the organization.  Some don't even have an organization, and just Student B leaves School A to become Teacher B.  So you would need to do a survey.


I would say whatever rank each particular martial arts considers to be their version of "shodan."

Yes, it's commonly considered for a BJJ purple belt to be equal to black belt in some other martial arts... but does a purple belt hold the same status within BJJ that a 1st Dan holds in TKD?  That's what I'm looking for.

As for Muay Thai, I've seen it mentioned several times here that there is rank in it; it's just not symbolized by any clothing or other accoutrement.  Let's just say, for the sake of argument, that the equivalent to shodan in western boxing and wrestling are either professional fighters (even if they're only local prize fighters) or people who are qualified to instruct without the direct supervision of the club owner.


> I believe most quotes about how many people get a certain rank are just using made up numbers.  For example, one girl used a quote in her essay for 3rd Dan, which stated:
> 
> 1 in 10 people who try martial arts stay past the trial period
> 1 in 100 get their black belt
> ...



Wow, those stats are pretty scary.  You'd think that the average 1sr degree would reason that they've gone too far to just stop there.


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## jobo (Nov 23, 2020)

Rusty B said:


> Whether or not you feel it's the right question to ask, it IS the question that I'm asking.  I'm fairly certain that there are black belts who can't fight, and I'm sure that are people who can beat 90% of anyone they even look at, and without ever having stepped foot into a dojo.
> 
> But that's not the question I'm asking.  I'm asking the percentage of people who've attained a black belt or equivalent.


i feel it may be an unanswetqble question,  as no  one tracks this as you said your self, all any could do is stick their fibger in the air and guess

my guess is 0.1 %


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## Rusty B (Nov 23, 2020)

jobo said:


> i feel it may be an unanswetqble question,  as no  one tracks this as you said your self, all any could do is stick their fibger in the air and guess
> 
> my guess is 0.1 %



I'm thinking there may be a way to come with up a good estimate.

Let's say we have a small town with only one martial arts club.  In this town, the average age is 35.

So we take the total number of people who've ever enrolled there over the past 35 years.  We also look at the town's total population.  We now have the percentage of the town's population that has ever enrolled in martial arts.  Well, not exactly, but we have the best possible number that we can work with.

If we know the number of black belts that the club has cranked out, the percentage of the town that has an enrolled there... and we repeat this other similar towns, we might be able to come up with a good number.

That's just one possible method I can think of.


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## skribs (Nov 23, 2020)

Rusty B said:


> Yes, it's commonly considered for a BJJ purple belt to be equal to black belt in some other martial arts... but does a purple belt hold the same status within BJJ that a 1st Dan holds in TKD? That's what I'm looking for.



I'd say yes.  I believe they can become instructors at purple belt.



Rusty B said:


> Wow, those stats are pretty scary. You'd think that the average 1sr degree would reason that they've gone too far to just stop there.



For a lot of people, they set the goal and stop there.  Some I think are ready to quit at red belt, but stick it out to finish their goal.  It's also led to some issues I've had with parents, one that was unresolved and one that was resolved.

There was one Mom who's attitude was that once they get their black belt, that's it.  There's no more.  Even though we have several people who help her kid's class who are 2nd and 3rd degree, and testing results for those students are posted along with everyone else.

Another parent had an even stranger approach, which luckily I was able to talk them out of.  They didn't want the kids to get their black belts too quickly, so they were having them only take class 3 months out of the year.  I explained they could keep going after getting their black belt, and suddenly they started coming the whole year.


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## Rusty B (Nov 23, 2020)

wab25 said:


> Wasn't trying to do that at all.
> 
> 
> Wasn't trying to do this either.
> ...



Come on over to the thread in the Kenpo section.  That's where we're discussing what you want to discuss.


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## Monkey Turned Wolf (Nov 23, 2020)

Rusty B said:


> One could argue that a bachelor's degree in psychology is not equal to a bachelor's degree in physics, but in the bigger picture, those are nuances that the DOE and BLS are not concerned with.


There is a huge difference between those two comparisons though. With both a bachelor's degree in physics and in psychology, you go to school for 4 years worth of classes, they have roughly the same average time to achieve, you take them at the same institutions, and the professors have the same level of accreditations. With black belts, they have wildly differing average times to achieve (anywhere from 1-2 years to 15 years depending on the school and style), you generally can't earn more than 1-3 different styles of black belts in the same school, there's no minimum required level for the teacher (people will give themselves black belts, without having one already), and there's no sort of accountability for it.

Because of all that variability, even if there were accountability and a way to determine the percentage of people that reach it, the question itself would be meaningless.

Personally, a better question would be based around how long people continue to train for on average, or what percentage of people train for (insert number of years you feel appropriate to get a black belt here) years.


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## Steve (Nov 23, 2020)

Monkey Turned Wolf said:


> Personally, a better question would be based around how long people continue to train for on average, or what percentage of people train for (insert number of years you feel appropriate to get a black belt here) years.


This is certainly concrete.  But does this information answer the fundamental question?  

For that matter, what is the underlying question in this thread?  Is this just idle curiosity, or is the goal to try and figure out how many people stick with the style long enough to know what they're doing.  If the latter, I'm not sure the questions asked/answered so far get to that.


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## Rusty B (Nov 23, 2020)

Steve said:


> This is certainly concrete.  But does this information answer the fundamental question?
> 
> For that matter, what is the underlying question in this thread?  Is this just idle curiosity, or is the goal to try and figure out how many people stick with the style long enough to know what they're doing.  If the latter, I'm not sure the questions asked/answered so far get to that.



The underlying question is being discussed in the latest Kenpo thread.  I just figured that this particular question would take that thread off topic if it was asked there.


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## Monkey Turned Wolf (Nov 23, 2020)

Steve said:


> This is certainly concrete.  But does this information answer the fundamental question?
> 
> For that matter, what is the underlying question in this thread?  Is this just idle curiosity, or is the goal to try and figure out how many people stick with the style long enough to know what they're doing.  If the latter, I'm not sure the questions asked/answered so far get to that.


I didn't know the underlying question. I was just pointing one out that could answer _an _underlying question.


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## Monkey Turned Wolf (Nov 23, 2020)

Rusty B said:


> The underlying question is being discussed in the latest Kenpo thread.  I just figured that this particular question would take that thread off topic if it was asked there.


I don't see any sort of relationship between this thread and that one.


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## Rusty B (Nov 23, 2020)

I'll go ahead and state my underlying question here:

In the Kenpo thread, I questioned a how a particular martial art, as opposed to others, can be specifically designed for "modern day street fighting," when cutting and stabbing weapons, melee weapons, and guns existed in the days Gichin Funakoshi and Kano Jigoro just as they do now; and that if you remove the guns, every possible armed and unarmed scenario you can think of was experienced by homo erectus.

One particular argument that @isshinryuronin mentioned, among others, is that your common street thug is more likely have a martial arts background today than he was back then.

Now, I'm not going to get into whether or not it's true, or if it even matters - as that's being discussed on that thread.  What I'm trying to get to is the likelihood that you'll even run into someone on the streets with a "meaningful amount" of martial arts training.

For example, someone who did a 30-day trial when they were 12 years old obviously isn't going to count; so I'm setting it at shodan.  And I'll include, like @skribs mentioned, BJJ purple belts and ranks in other martial arts that denote a similar level of mastery.


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## Monkey Turned Wolf (Nov 23, 2020)

Rusty B said:


> I'll go ahead and state my underlying question here:
> 
> In the Kenpo thread, I questioned a how a particular martial art, as opposed to others, can be specifically designed for "modern day street fighting," when cutting and stabbing weapons, melee weapons, and guns existed in the days Gichin Funakoshi and Kano Jigoro just as they do now; and that if you remove the guns, every possible armed and unarmed scenario you can think of was experienced by homo erectus.
> 
> ...


Then your question definitely won't get to it, since we don't know what you consider a base level of mastery. Or, more importantly, what is considered a "meaningful amount" of training, in ability, time spent training, intensity during training, and practicality of training. Or what a shodan would be considered. There are some who get shodan at 12, after training for about 5 years (starting at 7). Is that an appropriate level of mastery? What if they started at 20 and got it at 25? 
What if they trained for 10 years, but only once a month, and are 3rd degree black belts? 
What if they're 5th degree, with no sparring done at the dojo? Or they've only done a 12 week fight camp, but it was 4 hour days, and culminates in an amateur mma fight? 

Your underlying question is a good one, but your actual question barely scratches the surface. Still a good starting question to figure out the _right_ question, but there's a lot more that goes into it.


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## Rusty B (Nov 23, 2020)

Monkey Turned Wolf said:


> Then your question definitely won't get to it, since we don't know what you consider a base level of mastery. Or, more importantly, what is considered a "meaningful amount" of training, in ability, time spent training, intensity during training, and practicality of training. Or what a shodan would be considered. There are some who get shodan at 12, after training for about 5 years (starting at 7). Is that an appropriate level of mastery?
> What if they started at 20 and got it at 25?
> What if they trained for 10 years, but only once a month, and are 3rd degree black belts?
> What if they're 5th degree, with no sparring done at the dojo? Or they've only done a 12 week fight camp, but it was 4 hour days, and culminates in an amateur mma fight?



Those seem to be some extreme examples meant to detract from what you know the point to be.



> Your underlying question is a good one, but your actual question barely scratches the surface. Still a good starting question to figure out the _right_ question, but there's a lot more that goes into it.



What @isshinryuronin appears to be suggesting is that martial arts that are not "updated" for "modern day street fighting" only works against untrained fighters, and that the common thug is more likely to be a trained fighter than he or she was a century ago.

Without getting into whether or not any of that is true, how likely are you to run into someone on the streets that has the training for what @isshinryuronin is saying to be a concern (assuming that it should even be a concern in the first place)?


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## wab25 (Nov 23, 2020)

Rusty B said:


> What I'm trying to get to is the likelihood that you'll even run into someone on the streets with a "meaningful amount" of martial arts training.


You will have to define what you mean by the phrase "meaningful amount of martial arts training." I had thought you meant that their training would be helpful in an actual street fight. Which is why I was pointing out that many people can reach shodan or black belt, and still have no idea how to fight... some don't even know why they are waving their hands. Now, you could consider that a "meaningful amount" of training... as they could have put years into it and a lot of work and won trophies... but if you don't understand what you are doing, or have never tried it out beyond the prearranged cooperative drills... it will help you in a real street fight about as much as learning how to twirl a baton with the cheerleaders. But then you responded with:



Rusty B said:


> If I cared about the point that you're trying to make with this question, I'd answer it. But I don't.



So, are you looking for just the number of people that trained long enough in anything to be called a black belt? What is your definition of "meaningful amount of martial arts training?" Enough to win a neat belt? Enough to win a dance contest in pajamas? Enough to compete in fully resistant sport competition within your art? Enough to compete in fully resistant sport competition with other arts?


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## Rusty B (Nov 23, 2020)

wab25 said:


> You will have to define what you mean by the phrase "meaningful amount of martial arts training." I had thought you meant that their training would be helpful in an actual street fight. Which is why I was pointing out that many people can reach shodan or black belt, and still have no idea how to fight... some don't even know why they are waving their hands.



But a black belt not being able to fight, or someone being able to fight with no martial arts training wouldn't be relevant to @isshinryuronin 's claim.  That's why it's not relevant to what I'm asking.



> Now, you could consider that a "meaningful amount" of training... as they could have put years into it and a lot of work and won trophies... but if you don't understand what you are doing, or have never tried it out beyond the prearranged cooperative drills... it will help you in a real street fight about as much as learning how to twirl a baton with the cheerleaders.



We have to set a benchmark somewhere, and shodan is probably the least arbitrary you can get.  After all, it's something that exists on paper, and could potentially tracked with statistical data if any particular agency was inclined to do so (none are now).  Afterall, college degrees are tracked (because there are agencies that are inclined to track them).



> So, are you looking for just the number of people that trained long enough in anything to be called a black belt? What is your definition of "meaningful amount of martial arts training?" Enough to win a neat belt? Enough to win a dance contest in pajamas? Enough to compete in fully resistant sport competition within your art? Enough to compete in fully resistant sport competition with other arts?



That's why I tried to be careful to say "shodan" instead of "black belt," because I know how people can get around here.  Apparently, that doesn't work.


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## Monkey Turned Wolf (Nov 23, 2020)

Rusty B said:


> Those seem to be some extreme examples meant to detract from what you know the point to be.


They're actually incredibly common examples that I'm using to illustrate why your question doesn't hit the point. To some, 12 year olds having black belts is entirely normal. There's 2 fight camps I know of that do that in my area. I can list multiple places near me (and I'm pretty sure most can) of TMA's that don't do sparring, and then even more that either have really confined rules for their sparring and/or no sparring outside of their system/style. Anyone who makes a style is basically making up their ranks. An old instructor of mine went through some MA HoF stuff in NJ, found hundreds of 10th Dans in NJ, who had all created their own style. There are also tons of hobbyist who reach high ranks after decades of training, but only train once a month, and tons of MAists that reach the same ranks but train multiple times a week. None of those were extreme examples. And all of this is ignoring styles like boxing/kickboxing/muay thai which don't have rank at all, or the CMAs/FMAs that don't have belts or dan rankings.

My point is that shodan is incredibly arbitrary. So if you want to get at your underlying question, you first have to figure out what you consider (or what isshinryu considers) meaningful MA training. And rank shouldn't be part of that discussion.


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## Monkey Turned Wolf (Nov 23, 2020)

Rusty B said:


> We have to set a benchmark somewhere, and shodan is probably the least arbitrary you can get.  After all, it's something that exists on paper, and could potentially tracked with statistical data if any particular agency was inclined to do so (none are now).  Afterall, college degrees are tracked (because there are agencies that are inclined to track them).


 All this means is that it's not arbitrary who has the rank, not what it means.





> That's why I tried to be careful to say "shodan" instead of "black belt," because I know how people can get around here.  Apparently, that doesn't work.


By specifying shodan, you're limiting yourself to JMA/JMA-rooted styles.


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## Rusty B (Nov 23, 2020)

Monkey Turned Wolf said:


> All this means is that it's not arbitrary who has the rank, not what it means.



But who can whose butt is not something that exists on paper.  Your dojo or dojo's association isn't documenting that.  What they ARE documenting is rank.



> By specifying shodan, you're limiting yourself to JMA/JMA-rooted styles.



That's why I said "or equivalent."


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## Steve (Nov 23, 2020)

Monkey Turned Wolf said:


> All this means is that it's not arbitrary who has the rank, not what it means.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


This is a tough one.  I mean, first we should acknowledge that the numbers just aren't captured accurately.  There's no way to know for sure, outside of perhaps stats for a well structured, competitive sport like TKD or Judo.

But then, you have several different things going on here.  You have people who can fight.  You have people who are ceremonially endorsed by some style or another.  And those are likely to be two different groups that overlap to some degree in the middle.  

Just taking a stab at it, I'll say that it's really contingent on what crowd you run with.  I mean, if you live in an area that is more rural, like I do, your chances of running into someone who trains MMA is.. well, still not very high, but higher than if you hang out with a bunch of squints in a lab.  We also offer wrestling as early as 7th grade as a school sport, and Judo as a school sport starting in the 9th grade.  Both are effective martial arts.  BJJ is huge around here.  

I think the way to go is, if self defense is a central concern of yours for training, just presume that if you are attacked, they will be well trained.  If they turn out not to be, so much the better.  So, from this consideration, the answer to your question is 100%.


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## Monkey Turned Wolf (Nov 23, 2020)

Rusty B said:


> But who can whose butt is not something that exists on paper.  Your dojo or dojo's association isn't documenting that.  What they ARE documenting is rank.
> 
> 
> 
> That's why I said "or equivalent."


Again though. Your equivalent of shodan means nothing to me. I wouldn't even know which kali rank of mine would compare to shodan. And definitely wouldn't know my boxing/kickboxing rank since neither of those have ranks.


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## Monkey Turned Wolf (Nov 23, 2020)

Steve said:


> This is a tough one.  I mean, first we should acknowledge that the numbers just aren't captured accurately.  There's no way to know for sure, outside of perhaps stats for a well structured, competitive sport like TKD or Judo.
> 
> But then, you have several different things going on here.  You have people who can fight.  You have people who are ceremonially endorsed by some style or another.  And those are likely to be two different groups that overlap to some degree in the middle.
> 
> ...


I agree, ultimately you should always assume they know how to fight or have some sort of advantage that you're not aware of (hidden weapon, friends, stronger than they look etc.).


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## Buka (Nov 23, 2020)

wab25 said:


> Thats not the right question to ask. People get a black belt, or shodan for all kinds of reasons. It does not mean that they can all fight. (I would bet on a wet paper bag over quite a number of Black Belts I have seen...) Too many 6-7 year olds getting black belts, too many people getting black belts because they can wave their hands in the air without having any idea of what they are doing, too many people getting black belts without ever having tried to apply what they have "learned" against someone who does not want them to succeed.



Truth.


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## Rusty B (Nov 23, 2020)

In a martial art that has a rank system for students, there's eventually going to be a rank in each martial art where they are considered to be minimally capable of applying what was taught in a real life self-defense scenario.  For some martial arts, that could be before shodan (or equivalent).  But at shodan, that should generally be the case.

Not saying that they ARE capable on the streets, but the dojo probably considers them to be.


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## Monkey Turned Wolf (Nov 23, 2020)

Rusty B said:


> In a martial art that has a rank system for students, there's eventually going to be a rank in each martial art where they are considered to be minimally capable of applying what was taught in a real life self-defense scenario.  For some martial arts, that could be before shodan (or equivalent).  But at shodan, that should generally be the case.
> 
> Not saying that they ARE capable on the streets, but the dojo probably considers them to be.


I think the issue is you haven't seen enough schools. One would assume that at shodan you can apply what was taught in real life, but that is very often not the case. As Wabs said "I would bet on a wet paper bag over quite a number of Black Belts I have seen"


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## Rusty B (Nov 23, 2020)

Monkey Turned Wolf said:


> I think the issue is you haven't seen enough schools. One would assume that at shodan you can apply what was taught in real life, but that is very often not the case. As Wabs said "I would bet on a wet paper bag over quite a number of Black Belts I have seen"



There are two things in what I said that you should have noticed:  first, that I was speaking in a general sense (I did use the word "generally").  Second, that whether or not they "are" capable on the streets, the school probably considers them to be.  That's what I'm going by.


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## Monkey Turned Wolf (Nov 23, 2020)

Rusty B said:


> There are two things in what I said that you should have noticed:  first, that I was speaking in a general sense (I did use the word "generally").  Second, that whether or not they "are" capable on the streets, the school probably considers them to be.  That's what I'm going by.


I took both of those into account. I still think you haven't visited enough schools. More schools than not that have a ranking system don't have that as one of the shodan requirements. And there are even some people on this board who've admitted that they don't take that into consideration for black belt. Either using the "black belt is the start of learning" argument, or because the style isn't focused on self-defense, but tradition/heritage-preservation.


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## Rusty B (Nov 23, 2020)

Monkey Turned Wolf said:


> I took both of those into account. I still think you haven't visited enough schools. More schools than not that have a ranking system don't have that as one of the shodan requirements. And there are even some people on this board who've admitted that they don't take that into consideration for black belt. Either using the "black belt is the start of learning" argument, or because the style isn't focused on self-defense, but tradition/heritage-preservation.



Sounds to me like they're trying to avoid claiming something that they can be held to, but noted.


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## JP3 (Nov 23, 2020)

wab25 said:


> Thats not the right question to ask. People get a black belt, or shodan for all kinds of reasons. It does not mean that they can all fight. (I would bet on a wet paper bag over quite a number of Black Belts I have seen...) Too many 6-7 year olds getting black belts, too many people getting black belts because they can wave their hands in the air without having any idea of what they are doing, too many people getting black belts without ever having tried to apply what they have "learned" against someone who does not want them to succeed.


I think you just hijacked the OP's legitimate question. Granted, I agree with the statements you made... but you didn't even make an attempt to answer the question.

I can attest from reviewing my first TKD instructor's class bookings/schedules, new student intake and testing forms (The ATA is All about tracking things, or at least was in the mid-80's) and the success rate from the first-class beginniner to  first degree, confirmed black belt in the ATA at that particular school was Significantly less than 1%.  Closer to 0.1%, actually.  At each... I guess I'd call it major stages, about half would fall off. 

1.  Just going to a first class (in my personal experience I've found that about  quarter to a third of the people I've talked to have taken at least ONE class in "something.").

2.  Coming back to the second class (it's a big deal, bigger than most people consider. People are wimpy, and if they're sore afterwards it takes motivation to go back for more).

3.  Sticking with it through the first solid month (a month is a long time to be doing something new that makes you feel uncomfortable, which, if the MA class is being taught well, it certainly would be).

4.  Less of a fall off after the first month to the first rank-up (assuming TKD promotion rates).

5.  Getting into actual "sparring," where things are free-flow and you've got to start bridging from "I do this move this way" to "I use this move on that person who is trying to do something to me in this way."  ATA TKD this was green belt... about a third of the way "up" to 1st D.

6.  Learning more advanced concepts/techniques, building off fundamentals... again, when things get uncomfortable, people quit as "they've got better things (i.e. less difficult) things to do."

7.  The push for the actual BB... it's been my experience that All styles hold this thing out there as "Wallah! You did it!" So, there's a lot of requirements, typically double for any previous rank, as well as (usually) comprehensive testing on all the lower rank, "included" material.  According to the stats I reviewed... this level culled a higher percentage of everyone out other than Step 3, the month of classes, above.

So, if it's in the 0.1% for people who "take" ONE class then go on togeta  BB, I'd not be surprised if the actual number of people with BB in the States (yes, worthless ones included) is around 0.001%.  I see the statitstical split between my stats above, and my result, but I think the conclusion is accurate because I tend to hang around people who have some of the same sorts of predispositions into activities that I do, which moved that number up a few ticks.


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## Rich Parsons (Nov 23, 2020)

dvcochran said:


> It is still pretty low. I have read and tracked it to be about 5% of the people globally. Of course estimates vary country by country. Surprisingly the US is closer to 2%.



Do you have a site , book, magazine that lists these numbers? I am really curious and would be interested in reading anything you could provide.


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## Monkey Turned Wolf (Nov 23, 2020)

Rusty B said:


> Sounds to me like they're trying to avoid claiming something that they can be held to, but noted.


I agree with the beginning of learning thing, but keep in mind some arts legitimately have no place in modern self-defense. HEMA, or an ancient sword art, or one focused around using the meteor hammer, aren't realistic for self-defense because you would not ordinarily be carrying the tools. They're practiced to either preserve heritage or because the student finds them cool/entertaining. But excluding those rarities I agree (and continuing this topic would just cause the thread to be even more offtopic.


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## Steve (Nov 23, 2020)

I heard from a guy who read a quote from a movie in a book published on the internet that 60% of the time, it works every time.  They've done studies, you know.


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## wab25 (Nov 23, 2020)

JP3 said:


> I think you just hijacked the OP's legitimate question.


As I stated before... my intent was not to hijack the thread. 

These two questions are different:
1. How many people have trained martial arts enough to earn a black belt?
2. How many people have trained martial arts enough that it would help them in a real fight on the street?

Unfortunately, those are two different questions. We have schools turning out black belts by the masses, all to people who have yet to put a second digit in their age column. There are schools and organizations that train this stuff for health and well being... nothing wrong with this at all, as long as you don't think it translates to fighting off the mugger with a knife.

In the OP, he started by talking about the probability of running into a common thug with martial arts training... in this context, I went with trying to establish what was needed to answer question #2 above. First, he clarified that he did not care about #2, but only wanted the answer for #1. Which is when I apologized and stepped out of the thread. Then he came back, and clarified again, that he wanted to know how many people had done "a meaningful amount" of martial arts training. Thats when I came back in to find out what he meant by "meaningful." Certainly, for many people they do this stuff, because it gets them off the couch and doing some kind of movement, and they find this meaningful. Nothing wrong with this at all. Others may enjoy the social aspect... this again, can be very meaningful to people... as can winning kata tournaments with musical kata...

But, if by "meaningful amount of training" he is talking about training in martial arts in a way that will help you when you meet that common street thug, that he brought up in the OP, then simply asking about who has a black belt... won't get him the answer he wants.


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## Rusty B (Nov 23, 2020)

wab25 said:


> But, if by "meaningful amount of training" he is talking about training in martial arts in a way that will help you when you meet that common street thug, that he brought up in the OP, then simply asking about who has a black belt... won't get him the answer he wants.



Okay, I'm going to clarify this as best as I can:

The original question was "shodan" or equivalent.  @skribs brought up BJJ purple belts as exception, and I'm sure there are others... but the general idea is supposed to be "shodan" or equivalent rank.

Obviously, if you made gold belt and quit... I'm not worried about you as a fighter.  I mean, there may be other reasons I should be worried, but the gold belt isn't one of them.

@isshinryuronin insinuates that you SHOULD be worried about other people having martial arts training (something that, if you're paying attention, I vehemently disagree with myself); as he states that martial arts that update to meet the requirements of "modern street fighting" take this into consideration.

So IF we're going to take other people's martial arts training into consideration (again, I'M not saying that we should.  I'm merely going along with that argument); at what level is it going to be?  If you ask the average person, they're going to say black belt.  I'll even consider that some may even say brown, but generally, it's going to be black.

I seriously doubt you're going to scare anyone off by saying "Watch out, I've got a green belt in (insert non-BJJ martial art here)."


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## Steve (Nov 23, 2020)

Rusty B said:


> Okay, I'm going to clarify this as best as I can:
> 
> The original question was "shodan" or equivalent.  @skribs brought up BJJ purple belts as exception, and I'm sure there are others... but the general idea is supposed to be "shodan" or equivalent rank.
> 
> ...


Well, as I said before, if you're training for self defense, you should presume that if you get into an altercation with someone, they are better trained than you and act accordingly.  What that actually translates to as far as training goes will vary depending upon the sales pitch of the school trying to get your money. In my opinion.


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## isshinryuronin (Nov 23, 2020)

Monkey Turned Wolf said:


> ultimately you should always assume they know how to fight or have some sort of advantage



I think this is the bottom line for much of the discussion we are having on this and the related kenpo thread.  Whether the opponent is a drunken Okinawan rice farmer in 1850, or a modern gang member who trains with his buddies in some PMA knife techniques, you should take nothing for granted and always be on guard and aware of possible angles of attack.  You just never initially know who you are up against.


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## Rusty B (Nov 23, 2020)

isshinryuronin said:


> I think this is the bottom line for much of the discussion we are having on this and the related kenpo thread.  Whether the opponent is a drunken Okinawan rice farmer in 1850, or a modern gang member who trains with his buddies in some PMA knife techniques, you should take nothing for granted and always be on guard and aware of possible angles of attack.  You just never initially know who you are up against.



Does this mean that you're abandoning your claim that there are things that one would encounter in self-defense scenario today that they wouldn't have encountered a century ago?


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## Buka (Nov 23, 2020)

Rusty B said:


> Does this mean that you're abandoning your claim that there are things that one would encounter in self-defense scenario today that they wouldn't have encountered a century ago?



Probably not as many carjackings back then as there are now.


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## Rusty B (Nov 23, 2020)

Buka said:


> Probably not as many carjackings back then as there are now.



I don't know the stats, but if I was a betting man, I'd say that quite a few Model T's and/or whatever else was out at the time have been taken from people at gunpoint.

Surely, if a gun-slingin' outlaw from the Old West can hijack a train; a car was no problem.


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## dvcochran (Nov 23, 2020)

Rich Parsons said:


> Do you have a site , book, magazine that lists these numbers? I am really curious and would be interested in reading anything you could provide.


I believe the last place I saw the stats was on the CDC site.


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## isshinryuronin (Nov 23, 2020)

Rusty B said:


> Does this mean that you're abandoning your claim that there are things that one would encounter in self-defense scenario today that they wouldn't have encountered a century ago?



I really think you are confusing me with someone else as you continually ascribe things to me I have not said (you've done this 5 or 6 times on this thread without supplying supporting quotes), or you just have your head on backwards.

My only claim is that, due to the greater awareness and info re: MA available to the public, there is greater opportunity for people to have been exposed to MA methods and techniques.  I have no idea what your agenda is, but please do not include me in your fantasies.


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## Rusty B (Nov 23, 2020)

isshinryuronin said:


> I really think you are confusing me with someone else as you continually ascribe things to me I have not said (you've done this 5 or 6 times on this thread without supplying supporting quotes), or you just have your head on backwards.
> 
> My only claim is that, due to the greater awareness and info re: MA available to the public, there is greater opportunity for people to have been exposed to MA methods and techniques.  I have no idea what your agenda is, but please do not include me in your fantasies.



Bro, this came straight from YOU:



isshinryuronin said:


> The difference is this - *Back in the old days, martial arts was not generally taught to thugs and other commoners, so few had any formal fighting instruction.  Additionally, there were no movies, YouTube, or TV, so even this informal instruction was not available.  Nowadays, more of those one might have to fight have access to seeing and learning fighting techniques and have the ability to practice them at a school or home or gang crib.  Therefore, a higher percentage of potential attackers have martial training and ability than in the past.  * Kenpo is a quick, efficient style that has the capability of handling this situation, as do several other styles.  Of course, as often previously discussed, the individual's skill and fighting spirit are paramount.



The way I see it, the only way for you to get your foot out of your mouth is to rescind some claims.

Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go watch the video of Robbie Knievel jumping the Grand Canyon, then go do it myself.


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## Buka (Nov 24, 2020)

Rusty B said:


> I don't know the stats, but if I was a betting man, I'd say that quite a few Model T's and/or whatever else was out at the time have been taken from people at gunpoint.
> 
> Surely, if a gun-slingin' outlaw from the Old West can hijack a train; a car was no problem.



Rusty B, how long have you been training Martial Arts?


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## Rusty B (Nov 24, 2020)

Buka said:


> Rusty B, how long have you been training Martial Arts?



A year.  I thought most of you knew that.

However, if that's going to be used as a basis to say that I can't call BS on claims that "this martial art is more suited for modern day street fighting than other popular martial arts," I'm fully prepared to engage in a knock-down drag-out dragout in this tread.  Won't be my first at MT.

By the way, if watching movies counts as "informal training" - as stated by @isshinryuronin - then 37 years.  I was watching Kung Fu Theater on the USA Network at the age of 4.

I guess that means all martial arts are ineffective against me, unless one has trained in a martial that has been "updated for modern day street fighting." After all, all those other martial arts came out before the TV was invented.


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## Steve (Nov 24, 2020)

Rusty B said:


> A year.  I thought most of you knew that.
> 
> However, if that's going to be used as a basis to say that I can't call BS on claims that "this martial art is more suited for modern day street fighting than other popular martial arts," I'm fully prepared to engage in a knock-down drag-out dragout in this tread.  Won't be my first at MT.
> 
> ...


I loved Kung Fu Theater on the USA network.  Watched it every Sunday, IIRC.


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## Flying Crane (Nov 24, 2020)

Rusty B said:


> A year.  I thought most of you knew that.
> 
> However, if that's going to be used as a basis to say that I can't call BS on claims that "this martial art is more suited for modern day street fighting than other popular martial arts," I'm fully prepared to engage in a knock-down drag-out dragout in this tread.  Won't be my first at MT.
> 
> ...


That’s quite an answer to what was a pretty simple question.


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## isshinryuronin (Nov 24, 2020)

Rusty B said:


> By the way, if watching movies counts as "informal training" - as stated by @isshinryuronin


.
Once again, you prove you need to practice your reading skills by misquoting me.  Movies, TV and YouTube instruction videos exposes one to MA techniques, but are useless unless it is practiced.  You conveniently left off the "practice" part.  Only a fool would equate watching a movie as training in MA.



Rusty B said:


> A year. I thought most of you knew that.



A whole year training in martial arts!  I didn't know that - No wonder you are a veritable encyclopedia of MA knowledge.  Since you're out of my league, I better stop responding to your posts.


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## Rusty B (Nov 25, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> That’s quite an answer to what was a pretty simple question.



That's because I'm suspicious of the motive behind the question.


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## Rusty B (Nov 25, 2020)

isshinryuronin said:


> .
> Once again, you prove you need to practice your reading skills by misquoting me.  Movies, TV and YouTube instruction videos exposes one to MA techniques, but are useless unless it is practiced.  You conveniently left off the "practice" part.  Only a fool would equate watching a movie as training in MA.



So if a guy watches the Karate Kid series and practices the crane kick, the drum punch, and the wax on/wax off; he's gonna be a dangerous guy?

Bro, there's no possible spin you can put on your claim to make it not sound stupid.



> A whole year training in martial arts!  I didn't know that - No wonder you are a veritable encyclopedia of MA knowledge.  Since you're out of my league, I better stop responding to your posts.



Yet, you've trained for decades and believe people can become martial artists from watching TV.  One need not have ever stepped foot into a dojo to to find this suggestion utterly ridiculous.

Furthermore, let's say you are correct.  How many thugs - or even people in general - are using their living room with their TV playing Jean-Claude Van Damme movies as a dojo?


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## Rusty B (Nov 25, 2020)

It just occurred to me - I'm an 80's and early 90's kid, and back then, martial arts movies were all the rage.

And it was always the real dorky kids that have attempted to mimic what they saw in these movies, if they ever found themselves in a situation where they were confronted by a bully.

Some of these kids in my neighborhood, I would see them "playing karate" with their friends; so they were definitely "practicing."

Anyhow, I don't think I need to tell you how it worked out for them.


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## punisher73 (Nov 25, 2020)

Buka said:


> Probably not as many carjackings back then as there are now.



Just to stir the pot, more carriage and wagon robberies though.


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## punisher73 (Nov 25, 2020)

The problem is, the original question was what percentage of people achieve shodan/1st blackbelt.  It was pointed out that it is about 1-2% of people who join a martial arts school.

BUT, that question doesn't translate into what it means on what type of opponent you might meet in an altercation.  For example, I went to school with guys who went to bowling alleys almost every weekend and picked fights (late 80's early 90's when the cops weren't called for everything in our area).  They would go to HS football games and try to pick fights, or house parties.  After they turned 18, they would enter the "Toughman Contests" that were popular at the time.  They never had ANY "formal training", but were more experienced than most people who study in a martial arts school.

In the midwest, wrestling is very popular.  When I was growing up, the programs in our area started in elementary school.  The likelihood that you would face someone with wrestling experience was very high in our city.  

Also, in regards to TV/Video training.  It depends.  Former UFC Champion, Evan Tanner (RIP) learned his ground fighting originally from dvds and practicing with his friends.  But, I would agree for the most part, it goes no further than LARPing with each other and doesn't translate into real ability.


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## Rusty B (Nov 25, 2020)

punisher73 said:


> BUT, that question doesn't translate into what it means on what type of opponent you might meet in an altercation.  For example, I went to school with guys who went to bowling alleys almost every weekend and picked fights (late 80's early 90's when the cops weren't called for everything in our area).  They would go to HS football games and try to pick fights, or house parties.  After they turned 18, they would enter the "Toughman Contests" that were popular at the time.  They never had ANY "formal training", but were more experienced than most people who study in a martial arts school.
> 
> In the midwest, wrestling is very popular.  When I was growing up, the programs in our area started in elementary school.  The likelihood that you would face someone with wrestling experience was very high in our city.



As it relates to @isshinryuronin 's claim, these are things that would've happened a century ago too; not just today.



punisher73 said:


> Also, in regards to TV/Video training.  It depends.  Former UFC Champion, Evan Tanner (RIP) learned his ground fighting originally from dvds and practicing with his friends.  But, I would agree for the most part, it goes no further than LARPing with each other and doesn't translate into real ability.



Here's the thing:  there are nuances that you're going to miss, when you're merely watching someone else do something (this can be said of any skill, not just martial arts).  And when you throw in fictional movies, you may not even be seeing actual martial arts techniques being used... and some of the actors aren't even martial artists in real life.


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## dvcochran (Nov 25, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> That’s quite an answer to what was a pretty simple question.


And not quite a base of knowledge to pin the previous post from.


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## Rusty B (Nov 25, 2020)

Something else that just occurred to me: even though TV didn't exist a century ago, and the film industry was still in it's infancy (not sure if there are any silent martial arts films out there); weren't local live boxing and wrestling events far more common than they are now?  There's no reason to believe that people weren't exposed to seeing trained fighters in action back then.


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## Flying Crane (Nov 25, 2020)

Rusty B said:


> That's because I'm suspicious of the motive behind the question.


Maybe sometimes it’s better to just answer the question and let the other guy reveal his ulterior motives, if they exist at all.  Sometimes a question is just a question.


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## Rusty B (Nov 25, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> Maybe sometimes it’s better to just answer the question and let the other guy reveal his ulterior motives, if they exist at all.  Sometimes a question is just a question.



I appreciate the advice, but that's not how I'm looking at this.


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## Flying Crane (Nov 25, 2020)

Rusty B said:


> I appreciate the advice, but that's not how I'm looking at this.


Well, sometimes what you bring to the discussion is what you get back.


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## Rusty B (Nov 25, 2020)

Flying Crane said:


> Well, sometimes what you bring to the discussion is what you get back.



That's a door that swings both ways.


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## Flying Crane (Nov 25, 2020)

Rusty B said:


> That's a door that swings both ways.


Of course it does.  You can only keep your own house clean.  Others are responsible for theirs.


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## dvcochran (Nov 25, 2020)

Rusty B said:


> Something else that just occurred to me: even though TV didn't exist a century ago, and the film industry was still in it's infancy (not sure if there are any silent martial arts films out there); weren't local live boxing and wrestling events far more common than they are now?  There's no reason to believe that people weren't exposed to seeing trained fighters in action back then.


Likely but the exposure would have been very sparse and limited. Let's say there was a boxing event in New York City, Chicago or Kansas City. And lets say you lived on the outside one of these towns. How would you even know it occurred let alone have the time or means to get there. And even if you could, how often does this 'training' occur? And how would you practice this so called training? Not a wise example IMHO.
You are looking at this from the position of today's ease of instant information.


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## Rusty B (Nov 25, 2020)

dvcochran said:


> Likely but the exposure would have been very sparse and limited. Let's say there was a boxing event in New York City, Chicago or Kansas City. And lets say you lived on the outside one of these towns. How would you even know it occurred let alone have the time or means to get there. And even if you could, how often does this 'training' occur? And how would you practice this so called training? Not a wise example IMHO.
> You are looking at this from the position of today's ease of instant information.



I'm suggesting that local live events at lower levels and more common than that.  For example, little podunk towns having arenas that are no bigger than that of an elementary school auditorium; wrestling and bare knuckle boxing matches at local bars, and matches when the circus came to town, etc.


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## wab25 (Nov 25, 2020)

Lets play the game where I am wrong. (its easy for me, I am quite good at it...)

1. I assume that it is most likely that the common thug I run into has a good amount of martial arts training, enough to make him a better fighter.

2. I assume that it is most likely that the common thug I run into has no martial art training that helps him fight any better.

Remember, this is the game where I am wrong, all the time. So, in the case of the #1 assumption, I train for a trained fighter and when the day comes... I get a common thug who has no training.... because I was wrong.... This is a good day for me and not so much so for him. However, in the case of the #2 assumption, I can relax my training a bit or only do so much training as I assume the guy I fight won't have any such training. Well, since I am wrong again, this time the other guy does have training, that does make him a better fighter. My odds of having a good day now, just went down considerably.

I choose to go with assumption #1. Do I have data to back it up? No. Do I have a logical argument for why #1 is correct? No. I would just rather be wrong in that case rather than in the other. And if I am right, at least I have been doing my best to prepare for it. Hope for the best, plan for the worst. (also, it helps that I enjoy the hard training...)


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## Rusty B (Nov 25, 2020)

wab25 said:


> Lets play the game where I am wrong. (its easy for me, I am quite good at it...)
> 
> 1. I assume that it is most likely that the common thug I run into has a good amount of martial arts training, enough to make him a better fighter.
> 
> ...



At the end of the day, though, it really doesn't matter.  Sure, we can say it does while we're talking on MT... but when the fight goes down, you're either able to defend against what the attacker is coming at you with, or you're not.


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## JP3 (Nov 25, 2020)

Buka said:


> Rusty B, how long have you been training Martial Arts?



Translation, "Rusty B, how old are you?"

Sorry, too easy.

I wanted to ask, in the very interesting nature of these boards, how Did we get onto the current twisted subject?


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## Rusty B (Nov 25, 2020)

JP3 said:


> Translation, "Rusty B, how old are you?"
> 
> Sorry, too easy.



I'd actually have no problem answering that under normal circumstances (I actually did, a year ago), but if Buka was looking to turn this conversation into something about me personally, this is as far as he's getting.



> I wanted to ask, in the very interesting nature of these boards, how Did we get onto the current twisted subject?



If you're talking about the current direction this thread has taken... I tried to keep on the original topic, but I guess I could only do that for so long.


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## KenpoMaster805 (Nov 25, 2020)

Some white belt will stay as a black belt some will quit some will moved and take same style of Martial Arts some will take a different style of martial arts if they can't fine the same Martial arts that they can't find thats it


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## Flying Crane (Nov 25, 2020)

JP3 said:


> Translation, "Rusty B, how old are you?"
> 
> Sorry, too easy.
> 
> I wanted to ask, in the very interesting nature of these boards, how Did we get onto the current twisted subject?


Of course it would be a simple matter to ask @Buka if that is what he was getting at.


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## Rusty B (Nov 25, 2020)

KenpoMaster805 said:


> Some white belt will stay as a black belt some will quit some will moved and take same style of Martial Arts some will take a different style of martial arts if they can't fine the same Martial arts that they can't find thats it



I have no idea what you're saying here.


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## wab25 (Nov 25, 2020)

Rusty B said:


> I have no idea what you're saying here.


No one can understand what he says. He refuses to use any sort of punctuation at all... and we have asked him multiple times to use it. 

you don't even have to use punctuation correctly for it to help with understanding what you are saying as just putting in a mark of some sort can really help identify which words out of the many should be grouped together and sorry I can't put together sentences where the grouping of the words can make it more difficult to understand also understand that this is not directed at you Rusty I am hoping kenpomaster will read this and start to use punctuation in his future posts as it will help a lot for us to be able to understand his set of random words and as punctuation will be going on sale for black friday he could get some for cheap

you don't even have to use punctuation correctly for it to help with understanding what you are saying $ as just putting in a mark of some sort can really help identify which words $ out of the many $ should be grouped together $ and sorry I can't put together sentences $ where the grouping of the words can make it more difficult to understand $ also understand that this is not directed at you Rusty $ I am hoping kenpomaster will read this and start to use punctuation in his future posts $ as it will help a lot for us to be able to understand his set of random words $ and as punctuation will be going on sale for black friday $ he could get some for cheap


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## Buka (Nov 25, 2020)

Rusty B said:


> I'd actually have no problem answering that under normal circumstances (I actually did, a year ago), but if Buka was looking to turn this conversation into something about me personally, this is as far as he's getting.



No, Rusty, not trying to turn the conversation into something about you personally, but that does remind me of a line that screenwriter Mary Donoghue wrote, "_But enough about me, let's talk about you. What do you think of me?"  _I always loved that line.

I actually feel for you, you obviously like Martial Arts or you wouldn't be here. And having trained a year, a pandemic filled year at that, which I'm sure shortened actual training time by at least half, that's horrible for all of us, must be hard when you're first starting out.

The only advice I'd give, and yes, I know you didn't ask for advice, but I feel it might help anyone going forward....you probably know that in real self defense, one of the key proponents is avoiding dangerous situations and conflicts through situational awareness and common sense. The interactions one has online with other people tend to seep into real life if done enough. They create avoidable conflict.

Something we all should keep in mind.

And Happy Thanksgiving, Rusty.


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## Rusty B (Nov 25, 2020)

Buka said:


> The only advice I'd give, and yes, I know you didn't ask for advice, but I feel it might help anyone going forward....you probably know that in real self defense, one of the key proponents is avoiding dangerous situations and conflicts through situational awareness and common sense. *The interactions one has online with other people tend to seep into real life if done enough. They create avoidable conflict.*
> 
> Something we all should keep in mind.
> 
> And Happy Thanksgiving, Rusty.



For example, trying to patronize others.  Take your own advice.


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## Monkey Turned Wolf (Nov 25, 2020)

Rusty B said:


> For example, trying to patronize others.  Take your own advice.


This is actually an example of what he said. If you felt that he was patronizing (FYI he wasn't, he was genuinely just offering some friendly advice), then you could have easily ignored it. Instead, you decided to respond with hostility to him encouraging an argument/conflict. Coincidentally, you've been responding to most people with hostility, even those that agree with you. 

And despite that what you're discussing as something new is something that many of us have had the same discussions, both in-person with others and online, gone through the arguments past where you've brought them and come to their own conclusions. I actually find it kind of fun guessing what your next line of logic/argument will be based on what I've heard people go to in the past.


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## Rusty B (Nov 25, 2020)

Monkey Turned Wolf said:


> This is actually an example of what he said. If you felt that he was being patronizing, then you could have easily ignored it. Instead, you decided to respond with hostility to him encouraging an argument/conflict.



Thanks, but that's something I'm not going to take from others.


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## Monkey Turned Wolf (Nov 25, 2020)

Rusty B said:


> Thanks, but that's something I'm not going to take from others.


I edited the above, clicked reply before I finished my thoughts by accident. But like I stated with the edit, he really wasn't trying to be patronizing. You just jumped to that assumption and got defensive.


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## dvcochran (Nov 25, 2020)

Rusty B said:


> I'm suggesting that local live events at lower levels and more common than that.  For example, little podunk towns having arenas that are no bigger than that of an elementary school auditorium; wrestling and bare knuckle boxing matches at local bars, and matches when the circus came to town, etc.


But that is not at all what you said. You cannot keep jumping back and forth a century in time in your argument. It just adds to the foolishness in your method. 
Why do you think so many people were/are so worried about 'training' in the 1800's? More that most people were just worried about food on the table and surviving the next winter. The 'wild' west was not all that wild. If you want to be a gunslinger have at it but your arguments and all your 'what ifs' are pretty baseless.


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## Rusty B (Nov 25, 2020)

dvcochran said:


> But that is not at all what you said. You cannot keep jumping back and forth a century in time in your argument. It just adds to the foolishness in your method.
> Why do you think so many people were/are so worried about 'training' in the 1800's? More that most people were just worried about food on the table and surviving the next winter. The 'wild' west was not all that wild. If you want to be a gunslinger have at it but your arguments and all your 'what ifs' are pretty baseless.



Those all were separate conversations within this thread.  That's why you're so confused.

For example, the only reason I even brought up Old West was to illustrate a point in response to something that Burka said about carjackings; and then it was back to the normal topic.

You do know how to follow conversations, right?


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## KenpoMaster805 (Nov 25, 2020)

wab25 said:


> No one can understand what he says. He refuses to use any sort of punctuation at all... and we have asked him multiple times to use it.
> 
> you don't even have to use punctuation correctly for it to help with understanding what you are saying as just putting in a mark of some sort can really help identify which words out of the many should be grouped together and sorry I can't put together sentences where the grouping of the words can make it more difficult to understand also understand that this is not directed at you Rusty I am hoping kenpomaster will read this and start to use punctuation in his future posts as it will help a lot for us to be able to understand his set of random words and as punctuation will be going on sale for black friday he could get some for cheap
> 
> you don't even have to use punctuation correctly for it to help with understanding what you are saying $ as just putting in a mark of some sort can really help identify which words $ out of the many $ should be grouped together $ and sorry I can't put together sentences $ where the grouping of the words can make it more difficult to understand $ also understand that this is not directed at you Rusty $ I am hoping kenpomaster will read this and start to use punctuation in his future posts $ as it will help a lot for us to be able to understand his set of random words $ and as punctuation will be going on sale for black friday $ he could get some for cheap


I read it but dont care


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## dvcochran (Nov 26, 2020)

Rusty B said:


> Those all were separate conversations within this thread.  That's why you're so confused.
> 
> For example, the only reason I even brought up Old West was to illustrate a point in response to something that Burka said about carjackings; and then it was back to the normal topic.
> 
> You do know how to follow conversations, right?


Yea, a conversation but that is not at all what you have been doing. No one is qualified to nor should they try have an answer for everything. Makes you come off as a total dumb ash.


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## Rusty B (Nov 26, 2020)

dvcochran said:


> Yea, a conversation but that is not at all what you have been doing. No one is qualified to nor should they try have an answer for everything. Makes you come off as a total dumb ash.



I swear, there are at least two or three others here besides you who must not have finished high school.

I don't see how this is a response to what I said, but to humor you... we (meaning everyone in this thread, including you) are doing something called "spitballing."


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## dvcochran (Nov 26, 2020)

Rusty B said:


> I swear, there are at least two or three others here besides you who must not have finished high school.
> 
> I don't see how this is a response to what I said, but to humor you... we (meaning everyone in this thread, including you) are doing something called "spitballing."


Hmm. I see you are one of those people who include absolutely nothing in your profile, leading you to be seen as empty and hollow as a source of information. Of course most of your comments support this view as well.
You will see that I have two Masters degrees so yea, I finished high school and a little more; for whatever purpose that serves here.

It is comments like the one you just led with that promotes people to pile on. Really males you come off petty and as the one who is not old enough to finish high school yet.

Now 'spit balling' I can warm up to. I have to do a version of it in my work when designing systems and working out process problems in manufacturing. I prefer the 'what if' adverb but whatever works for you.

As far as style, I see your post have been primarily related to Kenpo which I have no experience in. But you have also made several post in more general threads. I also do a good bit of consultative work and business related legal advise. When a person asks & answers they give & get. Look it up if you do not understand that.

The people I think you are referring to are some of the most knowledgeable on this forum. Think about that. I for one love new people and ideas here. It is refreshing and needed to keep any forum going. But no one comes to the table as a foregone expert. That has to be earned no matter what the subject matter is. Think on that a little before replying.


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## Dirty Dog (Nov 26, 2020)

ATTENTION ALL USERS:

The snarky comments and mudslinging need to stop, immediately, or some people are going to find themselves on an involuntary vacation from our Friendly Martial Arts Community.

Mark A Cochran
@Dirty Dog
MartialTalk Senior Moderator


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## wab25 (Nov 30, 2020)

KenpoMaster805 said:


> I read it but dont care


You read that most of us have a very hard time trying to figure out what you are saying, but you don't care??? Why are you spending the time to even post, if the people you are posting to, can't understand what you are saying??? Why make your posts so hard for other to understand? 

Honestly, I think most people either have you on ignore or just skip your posts entirely, since they are so hard to figure out. This means that we get no input from you at all. We would like to include your input in the discussions. But, you need to help us out a little. Why are you so opposed to adding punctuation to your posts? Or doing something that would help people understand what it is you are saying? If you don't want people to understand what you are saying... why post at all?


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## Deleted member 39746 (Dec 3, 2020)

I had a TL;DR, but i just saw this.

Pretty sure no list exists currently, or at least at a national state sponsored level, but various orginsiations, federations etc track their various clubs and affilate students composition of ranks to varying levels and to various effecctiveness's.


You could maybe say, shoot the biggest karate orginisation in your country or area a email and ask if they have such a list if they wouldnt mind sharing their statstictics, and pending how far you want to go, would determine how many you email, or you could attmpt to commision a list.    Or if you have a freind in university who has a related study try to convince them to do it for you as part of their Thesis and give you a copy. 

The quality of the information is also a pest, many orgs dont keep their club lists up to date, so you can forget about if they have such a list it being worth anything.   Or maybe they annually servey all their affiliates they just forget to update their website.


Not sure if anyone suggested any of this, you also now can maybe appreciate the difficulty historians, statsticions and other people who collect and compile information based on sources and lists etc go through to discover trends etc.


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## Deleted member 39746 (Dec 3, 2020)

wab25 said:


> Thats not the right question to ask. People get a black belt, or shodan for all kinds of reasons. It does not mean that they can all fight. (I would bet on a wet paper bag over quite a number of Black Belts I have seen...) Too many 6-7 year olds getting black belts, too many people getting black belts because they can wave their hands in the air without having any idea of what they are doing, too many people getting black belts without ever having tried to apply what they have "learned" against someone who does not want them to succeed.




Following the same TL;DR disclosure here as well and the just seeing part and presuming it wasnt relayed or correctly, i can answer this.


On a purely scentific note, you first have to ascertain how many of them exist to begin with before you can begin to figure out how to ascertain their "fighting ability" and to what tests you will run and what charactistics you will assess and grade and how.    I would argue that both are loaded questions, that have their yeah buts and caviates to them and would require their fair share of exploitation to cover all of it.   But one was asked about (so the focus lies on the asked one) the other wasnt here.  (and also has been covered to a large degree elsewhere anyway)   Also working on the preumption you want to assess their fighting ability or belive the black belt rank to have some reflection on fighting ability, and not seniority, compotence in teaching, or compotencey in the currculem.    Fighting isnt everything in fighting, you could be good at it, but not be able to teach somone to do it as well as you.    You might be terrible at it but be able to teach people how to become really quite good in it. 

You could also translate the question as being "with the presumption that black belt status is a reflection on fighting skill, how many people in this population has a black belt?"


Hopefully that all made sense, and wasnt just a rehash of 20 other replies here. 


This was also suprisingly short and lacked my renown tangents or war anecdotes.

Addendum:  Not every variable or what if was covered here, i did miss out some varibles and reasons in the above.


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## JP3 (Dec 5, 2020)

KenpoMaster805 said:


> Some white belt will stay as a black belt some will quit some will moved and take same style of Martial Arts some will take a different style of martial arts if they can't fine the same Martial arts that they can't find thats it


Illuminating.


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## Balrog (Dec 9, 2020)

Rusty B said:


> I was inspired to come up with this, in light of a discussion on another thread in the Kenpo section about the likelihood of running into a common thug with a martial arts background.
> ...
> 
> Does anyone here have any more in-depth knowledge on this?


This has stuck with me over the years.  I heard it in a seminar easily 15+ years ago.  The number was 10%.

If you have a group of 1,000 people who start on the same day, at least half will be gone within six months because they find out it's hard work and they ain't gonna be a Ninja Turtle in two weeks time, or whatever.

The remainder of the dropouts are financial, relocation and dissatisfaction with the instructor.  By the time that group is ready to test for 1st Degree, there will only  be about 100 of them left.  And only about 50% will go on to 2nd Degree because the instructor did not do a good job of making them realize that 1st Degree is actually the starting line, not the end goal.


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## Kemposhot (Jan 1, 2021)

Balrog said:


> This has stuck with me over the years.  I heard it in a seminar easily 15+ years ago.  The number was 10%.
> 
> If you have a group of 1,000 people who start on the same day, at least half will be gone within six months because they find out it's hard work and they ain't gonna be a Ninja Turtle in two weeks time, or whatever.
> 
> The remainder of the dropouts are financial, relocation and dissatisfaction with the instructor.  By the time that group is ready to test for 1st Degree, there will only  be about 100 of them left.  And only about 50% will go on to 2nd Degree because the instructor did not do a good job of making them realize that 1st Degree is actually the starting line, not the end goal.



I recall when I tested for black belt the head of my system of Kempo told us during the test (for motivation) that only 1 in 100 students in the system make it to shodan.  Also that only 1 in 50 of those shodans continue to 2nd Dan.  I don’t know how realistic those numbers are.

In my own observation of training in the same dojo for 14 years now, I have seen MANY students start and drop out.  Younger students (teenagers) often leave to begin university in another area.  Older students leave due to injury, financial reasons or just slowly stop showing up and losing interest.  I’d be curious to know how many schools actually keep records of this, if any.


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## Acronym (Jan 5, 2021)

There was TKD Blogg claiming that somewhere around 75-80% quit after first coloured belt. And most of the ones left do not stay for black belt.


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## dvcochran (Jan 5, 2021)

Acronym said:


> There was TKD Blogg claiming that somewhere around 75-80% quit after first coloured belt. And most of the ones left do not stay for black belt.


Possibly after 1st Dan but I know it is not that high for first color belt. I doubt it is that high after Dan testing. 

It would take a great deal of supposition but if everyone who participated in trial classes were included I could see the number getting to around 50% attrition before first or second testing.


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