# Is it just me or is this Georgia thing getting more than a little scary



## Andy Moynihan (Aug 15, 2008)

Ok I know I'm pessimistic, curmudgeonly, some might say  paranoid, and have no faith left in humanity, I accept that and make no pretenses.

 So at this point I'd be assuming I'm crazy or mistaken, except for the fact I've NEVER been wrong about human nature before in my adult life..


I swear I won't argue, somebody tell me it's nothing to worry about:


*http://www. irishtimes. com/newspaper/frontpage/2008/0814/1218477550041. html*

Bush:

""We expect Russia to ensure that all lines of communication and transport, including sea ports, airports, roads and airspace, remain open for the delivery of humanitarian assistance and for civilian transit," Mr Bush told reporters in Washington.
"

Russians, yesterday "The US [is] playing a dangerous game in the Caucasus by backing Georgia.
"

Quote:
The first US C-17 cargo planes carrying relief supplies landed in Tbilisi yesterday, the White House announced. A second flight is scheduled to land today.


Although the US deployment is presented as a humanitarian mission, its management by the Pentagon is a clear warning to the Russians.



I really wish we had somebody a little more trustworthy and competent than the Bush gang running things as this is going down.


I hope they allow some pragmatism and not just ideology / doctrine to rule this decision making process. I sure am really glad Georgia wasn't already in NATO.


Did they forget the Russians still have 6000 nukes?

*http://en. wikipedia. org/wiki/Russia_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#Nuclear_arsenal_of_Russia*

Quote:

Doctrine of limited nuclear war
According to a Russian military doctrine stated in 2003, tactical nuclear weapons (Strategic Deterrence Forces) could be used to "prevent political pressure against Russia and her allies (Armenia, Belarus, Serbia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan)." Thus, the Russian leadership "is officially contemplating a limited nuclear war" [2].


No seriously, I mean I REALLY wouldn't mind being wrong every so often, somebody's more than welcome to break me the news.....

really.......


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## jkembry (Aug 15, 2008)

I am not sure scary is the right word for it ... unless you happen to be in Georgia.

My opinion only...I believe that an updated 'Cold War' is returning and has been for some time.  And, I believe as long as Putin is around we can expect more of this.

The thing I found fascinating about it was the timing of the invasion.  Had the Olympics not been in play, I am certain that we would have heard MUCH more about it in our news.


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## Sukerkin (Aug 15, 2008)

It is indeed a scary happening.  As soon as I heard it on Friday night I had a definite sensation of "Here we go again!", especially when the West began it's hypocritical 'diplomatic' offensive.

Never underestimate a democratic politicians capacity for venality and dipping their bloody fingers in someone else's 'pie' - especially when there's an election in the offing .

As far as I can tell, the Russians were being somewhat on the blatant side in seizing the excuse to get the tanks in but it's still nothing the American's or us should have been so keen to rattle sabres about.  I'm surprised the Russian's didn't tell us to mind our own business in no uncertain terms.


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## jkembry (Aug 15, 2008)

Sukerkin said:


> I'm surprised the Russian's didn't tell us to mind our own business in no uncertain terms.



I would have to check, but, I thought I read or heard somewhere that Putin did tell us (America at least) to mind our own business on this.


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## Sukerkin (Aug 15, 2008)

Ah, cheers for the extra news *jk*, I hadn't heard that.  

With the missus' father in hospital, we've been a little pre-occupied with domestic matters rather than international.


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## jkembry (Aug 15, 2008)

Sukerkin said:


> Ah, cheers for the extra news *jk*, I hadn't heard that.
> 
> With the missus' father in hospital, we've been a little pre-occupied with domestic matters rather than international.



Not to worry *Sukerkin* ...  sometimes domestic policy is more complex that international.  Hope all goes well with the father in law.  My prayers are with you.


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## Phoenix44 (Aug 15, 2008)

Of course, the only reason this is of interest is because of the oil pipeline.


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## Ninjamom (Aug 15, 2008)

This is of interest because once again Putin is making rumblings about resurrecting the old USSR.


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## girlbug2 (Aug 15, 2008)

Yes, because the old USSR was so _effective_.


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## 5-0 Kenpo (Aug 15, 2008)

girlbug2 said:


> Yes, because the old USSR was so _effective_.


 

You dont have to be effective politically, to be completely dangerous militarily.

And for those with a gut reaction to this based on oil.  Could it possibly be because the West fears a resurgance of the Cold War and Russian imperialism, and all that that entials.  

Im just sayin.......


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## Sukerkin (Aug 15, 2008)

I wouldn't mind betting that there are elements within business and government that would just love to fan the Cold War back to simmering life.  The 'Terrorist Threat' just might not be working well enough when it comes to resource appropriation.

Reading on the BBC the comments that President Bush has made with regard to this was disturbing to say the least.  I don't recall falling through a wormhole back to the seventies ... .  It would be prudent to remember that that sabre being rattled is funded by a debt already too huge to comprehend.

Ironically, that was what caused the old Soviet Republic to fall - over extension of resources attempting to appear a fierce bear so as to compete with the West in global influence.


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## CoryKS (Aug 15, 2008)

Sukerkin said:


> I wouldn't mind betting that there are elements within business and government that would just love to fan the Cold War back to simmering life. The 'Terrorist Threat' just might not be working well enough when it comes to resource appropriation.
> 
> Reading on the BBC the comments that President Bush has made with regard to this was disturbing to say the least. I don't recall falling through a wormhole back to the seventies ... . It would be prudent to remember that that sabre being rattled is funded by a debt already too huge to comprehend.
> 
> Ironically, that was what caused the old Soviet Republic to fall - over extension of resources attempting to appear a fierce bear so as to compete with the West in global influence.


 
There's nothing ironic about it.  Economic failure on the part of the Soviet Union was the whole point of the arms race.  It's a feature, not a bug.

What's ironic to me is that Russia can invade a sovereign nation, roll tanks toward its capital, and what you find disturbing is President Bush' 'saber rattling'.  And regarding your first paragraph, suggesting that this was somehow ginned up by the folks who brought us "The Terrorist Threat", I would love to hear your theory on how Vlad the Impaler is actually a Rovian sockpuppet.


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## Sukerkin (Aug 15, 2008)

I wonder how the reporting of this is being slanted for public consumption?  As I said above, I've had other things on my small mind this past couple of weeks so I might have gotten this twisted around?

I thought that Georgia had attacked a break-away part of itself and that Russia had used this as a pretext to get some of it's old 'aquired' territory back?

Regardless of the truth of that, yes, it is the Hawks of the West that are the scary part of this event.  

If Russia had pre-emptively attacked Georgia once it was a member of NATO then sabres should most assuredly be rattled, if not drawn in a show of force.  With things as they are, ebullient posturing for the media is only likely to harden attitudes with no tangible benefit in terms of diplomatic progress.

Also, I can appreciate that your American good self might see things in a very different light from my lived-under-the-nuclear-shadow point of view but it would be nice if you'd pull that barb back out of me again; in my somewhat strung-out emotional state it hurts more than you might think.


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## zDom (Aug 15, 2008)

China concerns me more.


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## Live True (Aug 15, 2008)

Unfortunately, from what I have read/heard, I see scary parts on both the US and Russian sides...and Georgia is certainly not trying to simmer this down either.

I heard this morning that Russia has reacted negatively to US decision and agreement with Poland to base some PAtriot missiles there as part of the US defensive shield.  With the current state of Georgia's situation....that was...particuarly poorly timed, unless it was meant to be a not-so-subtle warning.  Either way...that increases the stakes here.

Also, Russia stated it was assisting a break away region, but then went on to occupy non-break away territory, including ports, and refused to back down or release them after initially agreeing to....thus increasing concerns about imperialist motivations.

On either side, this is an ugly situation with lots to lose/gain....and much potential to turn ugly...

So, yeah...I'm finding this a bit scary as well....and not to sure if either side is handling this very well....


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## Makalakumu (Aug 15, 2008)

The Russophobes are reasserting themselves in Washington.  The neo-cons are on their way out and the ZBigs of this world are now calling the shots.  Mark my words, these people will try to pit China against Russia by denying access to oil and resources in far away places...forcing them to look closer.  

This will be done to weaken both of these rising powers in order to keep the US at the top of the heap.

The thing is that you can't watch the news or read the papers in order to find out about the weird agendas of the global superclass.  You've got to find out what you can by reading their books and papers and then looking at world events through the lense of what they believe and what they said they would like to do.  

Both Obama and McCain are creatures of this faction, and, unfortunately, I think that these guys will make the neocons look like smallish petty psychopaths who suffered from a lack of ambition.


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## CaffeineKing (Aug 19, 2008)

For me, the problem stems from the fact that the President of Georgia is made out to be a democrat. He isn't. I understand that he was elected with 96% of the vote after a campaign of pure Soviet-style intimidation. He also started it, and there are no good guys in this one.

Further, if you were a Russian, how is military action against Georgia to save South Ossetians different from past NATO action in Kossovo to save Albanians from Serbia? I grant you that it's much more complicated that that, but if we throw our weight around and ignore Russia, why should they listen to us? Besides, being bogged down in Afghanistan and Iraq, and with Iran behaving as it is, what can the West do?

Add in the fact that Russia is on an economic roll (oil prices), controls gas supplies to Europe - you should see my UK gas bill!!  - and is finally recovering from a decade of humiliation with NATO now up against it's borders, and it's got something to prove. Having Georgia - or the Ukraine - as NATO partners would simply mean that we'd have to go to war with Russia at some point to defend them. No matter how overwhelming US military power is, doesn't matter. It'll go nuclear - never underestimate damaged Russian pride - and everybody loses.


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## Sukerkin (Aug 19, 2008)

A quite chilling possible future there, *DK*.


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## CaffeineKing (Aug 19, 2008)

Georgia doesn't worry me, funnily enough. It's not great in there, and Georgians and South Ossetians are both suffering, but it's The Ukraine that scares me. After all, 40-50% of the people in the Ukraine aren't Ukrainian - they're Russian (mainly in the Crimea). What if Ukraine with it's pro-Western government tries to join NATO? The Crimea will pull the South Ossetian gag - with Russian backing, and before we know it, Russia and NATO are locking heads. That would be a nasty one. The stakes would be much higher for Russia than they would be for us...

Sorry guys - I think I got out of the grim side of bed this morning!


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## Sukerkin (Aug 19, 2008)

Or, alternatively, the 'clear-sighted' side of the bed.  It hasn't taken long, it appears, for the Hawks to forget the long decades of stand-off with the Soviets.  

I have thought for a while that these overtures to bring ex-USSR territories into NATO have been ill-conceived.  They're almost a guarantee of provoking some form of negative reaction, whatever form that would take.

I know that it sounds paranoid but that doesn't mean someone, for whatever, isn't doing their level best to ensure another big war.  If bottom-of-the-pile members of the general population like myself can see the pieces being moved into place, surely those in postions of power can?  That's part of what makes me garner a sense of deliberateness about the manipulation of the global socio-economic and political shadow-play.


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## CaffeineKing (Aug 19, 2008)

> I have thought for a while that these overtures to bring ex-USSR territories into NATO have been ill-conceived. They're almost a guarantee of provoking some form of negative reaction, whatever form that would take.



I agree 100% Sukerkin. What's the saying: "Never kick a man when he's down if you think he might get up again?" 21st-century Russia is no Soviet Union, but it's an angry bear and it's had ten years being prodded with a stick and laughed at.


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## Phoenix44 (Aug 19, 2008)

Other than my personal opinion that killing people is generally not a good thing, I just don't get what about the situation between Georgia and Russia gives the U.S. any standing to get involved.  For one thing, we lack the cred.

We failed, or aborted, our attempt to capture the organizer of the 9/11 attack in Afghanistan.  We've completely blown our war in Iraq, and we're now expending a lot of resources occupying a nation that DIDN'T perpetrate the 9/11 attack.  We have a war of intimidation with Iran.  We have no moral high ground whatsoever to comment on other countries' aggressions, yet Bush is expressing concern about Russia's "bullying and intimidation" and invasion of "a sovereign nation," while Rice is talking about "territorial integrity."  The missile defense deal with Poland probably doesn't help the issue much either.  And we have major domestic issues to deal with.

It's particularly bizarre in view of Georgia's human rights violations in the disputed territories, where people pretty much don't want to be part of Georgia anyway, and the fact that Georgia kind of started it, despite the US warnings not to. 

Is this really our battle? Let's face it, this is about Georgia's oil pipeline. Oil is what's fueling most of the crises in the world today: Israel, Palestine, Iraq, Iran, Darfur, and Georgia. "Territorial integrity?"  Do you think we'd care if Senegal invaded Guinea-Bissau? 

I wish we'd redeploy our resources into alternative energy.  It would turn Saudia Arabia back into the sandbox it should be, and Georgia would be a non-starter.


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## MBuzzy (Aug 19, 2008)

Maybe one of you guys can clear this whole thing up for me....

Now I have a rather limited intellect and I can only go based on what I hear on the extremely biased news media, but here's what I've got so far.

One of Georgia's provinces doesn't like being part of them and in practice IS part of russia (speaks russian, russian passports, etc) wants to be part of Russia.  So Georgia sends military to that area to "reclaim" it, effectively forcing the population back to a country that they have no ties to.  Russia defends them by responding with more force.

SO, in summary.....Georgia sends military into a province of its own country to keep them from separating, Russia sends military into another country to get the province back.

So if I've got this whole thing right....kind of makes it hard to choose a side.  On one hand, you've got a country who seemingly wrongly invaded an area....on the other hand, you've got another country who basically send an invasion force into another country.


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## Twin Fist (Aug 19, 2008)

Phoenix44 said:


> We've completely blown our war in Iraq,



uh no.


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## Ninjamom (Aug 19, 2008)

MBuzzy said:


> Maybe one of you guys can clear this whole thing up for me....
> >
> >One of Georgia's provinces doesn't like being part of them and in practice IS part of russia (speaks russian, russian passports, etc) wants to be part of Russia. So Georgia sends military to that area to "reclaim" it, effectively forcing the population back to a country that they have no ties to. Russia defends them by responding with more force.


Close but not quite (from what I understand, anyway).

Most of these new republics formed from the former USSR/CIS have social/historical ties to Russia.  True, most Ossetians and Abkhazians speak Russian, but so do most Georgians (although the official language of Georgia is Georgian, and the 'official' language of the break-away state of Abkhazia is Abkhazian).  True, many Ossetians and Abkhazians do not view themselves as Georgians; however, they generally do not view themselves as Russians, either.  True, many Ossetians and Abkhazians have Russian passports, but only because in the last four years the Russian government has been supporting separatists there with arms and training, and has been handing out Russian passports like candy.  Russia has stationed 'Peace-Keeping Forces' in Georgia.  Basically, Russia has been looking for any move by Georgia to 'justify' such an incursion for years.

If you look at a map of Georgia (see for instance, the CIA World Factbook, which gives some excellent background data on the nation of Georgia and the ethnhic conflicts there), you will see that South Ossetia occupies a north central section, and Abkhazia the extreme northwestern tip of Georgia.  Still, the Soviet (er, excuse me, I mean 'Russian') incursion emphasized the capture of the central city of Gori (hub of the transnational oil/gas pipelines that have become the center, with tourism, of the robust new Georgian economy) and the central west coast city of Poti (Georgia's only major port on the Black Sea).

I was surprised that someone talked about the limited freedom in Georgia when that is actually opposite of the current situation there.  Prior to the last set of elections, Eduard Shevardnadze (of old Soviet name and fame) was the president, and there were many holdovers from old Soviet-style communism.  However, in 2004 his government was swept out of power by free and fair elections in which 40% of the vote was distributed among political parties other than the new president's party.  Representation in the legislature includes 150 delegates apportioned by population, and even includes 10 representatives for displaced persons from Abkhazia (Abkhazians forced from their homes by separatist clashes).  

Georgia has been a 'success story' of economic growth and development and freedom in the wake of the breakup of the former USSR.  The 2007 GDP grew at a rate of about 12%, fueled largely by foreign investment (Georgia has made the aim of opening up to outside investment and ensuring a pro-industry government environment.)  This may be part of the root of Russia's concern.


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## elder999 (Aug 19, 2008)

Something the media seems to have been avoiding, and that hasn't been mentioned here, is that there were over 1,000 U.S. troops in Georgia, acting as "trainers",though some were rumored to be supervising security for the pipeline that passes through Georgia and Ossetia, and some were participating in an exercise with Georgian forces that were going to be deployed in Iraq-prior to the Russian invasion.

Additionally, while it was opposed by the majority of NATO members, the U.S. has been ushing for NATO membership for Georgia and the Ukraine-a move that would have allowed a larger American force presence in those countries, right on Russia's borders-something that Russia (Putin) can't have been happy about.


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## Ninjamom (Aug 19, 2008)

Elder - thank you for bringing this up.  

There have been US military advisors in Georgia.  In 2002 a small group came and worked with Georgian forces, training them for anti-terror operations in the Pankisi Gorge, a rough, mountainous area that borders Georgia and Chechnya which had been used by Al Qaida as a 'safe haven' from Russian forces.  Also, the US has helped train Georgian forces who have been deployed as peacekeepers in Iraq.  The 2000 Georgian troops in Iraq have since been redeployed as a result of the conflict with Russia, so I am not sure of the current status of any US personnel in the region.

The joint US-Georgian military exercises (I believe they were practice for working with NATO forces in Iraq, but I'm not positive) had been completed and the American forces participating in them had left before any of the current crises.

I would be very interested in finding links/news showing the current status of US involvement in the area.  Are advisers/trainers still present at all?


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## elder999 (Aug 19, 2008)

Ninjamom said:


> The joint US-Georgian military exercises (I believe they were practice for working with NATO forces in Iraq, but I'm not positive) had been completed and the American forces participating in them had left before any of the current crises, however.


 
Actually, while the exercise was over, they were still there when Russia invaded. They left afterward.



Ninjamom said:


> I would be very interested in finding links/news showing the current status of US involvement in the area. Are advisers/trainers still present at all?


 

If you find any links, you'll find that the answer is "maybe yes, maybe no." 

I'm guessing "yes," but what do I know?


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## Touch Of Death (Aug 19, 2008)

jkembry said:


> I am not sure scary is the right word for it ... unless you happen to be in Georgia.
> 
> My opinion only...I believe that an updated 'Cold War' is returning and has been for some time. And, I believe as long as Putin is around we can expect more of this.
> 
> The thing I found fascinating about it was the timing of the invasion. Had the Olympics not been in play, I am certain that we would have heard MUCH more about it in our news.


Just remember Putin is reacting to pre-existing violence within Georgia against pro-Russian supporters. To the Russian People he is stopping a geonocide that the US chooses to ignore.
Sean


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## Ninjamom (Aug 19, 2008)

The Russian people have been seriously propagandized.

The two break-away sections of Georgia have been outside effective operational control of the central Georgian government for years (ever since the Russian 'peace keeping' forces have been operating there).  So, who exactly would Georgia have been committing genocide against seems unclear, especially since the Russians have been in control in those areas.  Meanwhile, however, there are 100,000 to 200,000 'internally displaced persons' inside Georgia (i.e., Georgian citizens who had to flee their homes because of Russian-backed, Russian-funded 'ethnic cleansing' against them in their homes in South Ossetia and/or Abkhazia).


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## CaffeineKing (Aug 20, 2008)

> *Originally Posted by Ninjamom* I was surprised that someone talked about the limited freedom in Georgia when that is actually opposite of the current situation there. Prior to the last set of elections, Eduard Shevardnadze (of old Soviet name and fame) was the president, and there were many holdovers from old Soviet-style communism. However, in 2004 his government was swept out of power by free and fair elections in which 40% of the vote was distributed among political parties other than the new president's party



Yes, that was me. I was going by what I read in UK newspapers and  elsewhere. However, I grant you now that I've checked up, that the last elections in the January of this year were much freer. Still problems, as we can see here and here, but probably better.



> *Originally Posted by Ninjamom* The Russian people have been seriously propagandized.



As for this one, they probably know it. Russia has always been different from the rest of Europe - it doesn't think or act in the same way. Throughout history, Russia has been invaded by just about everyone - hence their preference for fighting wars in other people's countries rather than their own (!) - and they seek strength in their leaders. As long at Putin is seen as strong - and that's Putin, not his new puppet president - the Russians will continue to love him for it.


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## Ninjamom (Aug 20, 2008)

CaffeineKing said:


> ...... Russia has been invaded by just about everyone - hence their preference for fighting wars in other people's countries rather than their own (!) - and they seek strength in their leaders. As long at Putin is seen as strong - and that's Putin, not his new puppet president - the Russians will continue to love him for it.


A very good observation!  I agree.


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## theletch1 (Aug 20, 2008)

Simply put... Putin scares me.  Really scares me.


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## Xue Sheng (Aug 20, 2008)

zDom said:


> China concerns me more.


 
Just as a note China has never invaded a country it did not historically see as China (meaning at one time it was part of China under a Chinese Emperor), not including when the Mongols were in charge and tried to invade Japan.


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## theletch1 (Aug 20, 2008)

I'm not as worried about China from a military stand point as I am from a financial stand point.  Financially, they could crush us in a heart beat.


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## Ninjamom (Aug 20, 2008)

theletch1 said:


> Simply put... Putin scares me. Really scares me.


 


theletch1 said:


> I'm not as worried about China from a military stand point as I am from a financial stand point. Financially, they could crush us in a heart beat.


 
From a 'world stability' point-of-view, I totally agree with you on both counts (well, maybe not 'in a heartbeat', but China could definitely raise enough economic pain to make us cry 'uncle' on a lot of issues).

I have long believed that cheap imported Chinese goods were keeping prices in the US artificially low, and that the moment China either raised prices or cut exports, a backlog of a decade's-worth of inflation would hit us.  I suspected such a thing would/could be used as a political/economic weapon; however, whether planned or not, the rise in oil prices and resulting increased fuel costs has actually accomplished pretty much the same thing.


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## CoryKS (Aug 26, 2008)

Interesting article with a lot of backstory:  The Truth About Russia in Georgia.


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## CaffeineKing (Aug 28, 2008)

Hmmmm....

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7583810.stm


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## jkembry (Aug 28, 2008)

CaffeineKing said:


> Hmmmm....
> 
> http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7583810.stm



Something in the back of my mind tells me this has been brewing for some time now.


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## celtic_crippler (Aug 28, 2008)

Is it just me or is _the whole world_ thing getting more than a little scary.


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## Andy Moynihan (Aug 28, 2008)

It's not just you.


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## Andrew Green (Aug 28, 2008)

Let's just be honest here, this is not _just _Russia causing trouble.  The US is doing its fair share of saber rattling as well.

This was a region that Russia considered under its protection and was a break away from Georgia, Fighting broke out between the break away region and Georgia, Russia stepped in.  Now I'm not saying Russia was in the right, no one there was.

But how does this have anything to do with the US?  

I see the US engaging in wars with less justification, threatening one against Iran because they are building nuclear power plants, and putting more missles in place aimed at Russia.  

Russia might be showing its teeth, but so is the US.  Neither country can claim innocence.  

Unfotunate truth is war, or at least threat of war is good for political careers, I imagine that holds true in both countries.  But right now I think Russia has as much reason to be worried about the US as the US has to be worried about Russia.


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## Andy Moynihan (Aug 29, 2008)

Andrew Green said:


> Let's just be honest here, this is not _just _Russia causing trouble. The US is doing its fair share of saber rattling as well.
> 
> This was a region that Russia considered under its protection and was a break away from Georgia, Fighting broke out between the break away region and Georgia, Russia stepped in. Now I'm not saying Russia was in the right, no one there was.
> 
> ...


 
Don't worry, it'll all be over soon.


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