This is a thought I've had while training TKD and HKD, and has become more solidified since I've started taking BJJ. The amount of skill it takes in order to make a technique work, based on the type of martial art:
- In Striking (TKD), you can make a technique work at any skill level.
- In Competitive Grappling (BJJ), you can make a technique work at any skill level, provided your opponent is of equal or lesser skill level (or lets you do it).
- In Technical Grappling (HKD), you can make a technique work only at a high skill level.
I understand the point you're trying to make, however I think your analysis needs to be a bit more nuanced and granular in order to draw any useful conclusions. Here's how I would break it down ...
- For a given technique, what is the minimum skill level necessary for it to possibly work in any realistic situation?
- For a given technique, what are the minimum physical attributes necessary for it to possibly work in any realistic situation?
- For a given technique, what is the minimum/maximum differential in skill and attributes between you and your opponent to have a reasonable chance of having it work? (In other words, do you have to be twice as good as your opponent or could you have a chance of landing it on someone who is twice as skilled as you are?
- For a given technique, what are the minimum skill and attributes and min/max differentials necessary to have it be a high-percentage, reliable move?
- For a given technique, what are specific contexts and situations where it could be reliably applicable? (This is sort of a side tangent, but I'll get to why I include it in a bit.)
Some examples ...
A rear hand power punch (cross/reverse punch/haymaker/overhand right/rear hook/etc).
Completely untrained people throw these all the time, based on instinct or watching others. Often they land and inflict damage. Sometimes they even cause a knockout. Obviously an unskilled punch isn't as effective as a skilled one, but the minimum level for potential effectiveness is pretty low.
It's possible to land a punch on someone who is more skilled if you are determined and willing to take some shots yourself on the way in. There is a certain level of skill differential beyond which you just won't be able to land anything on your opponent, but it takes a much more skilled adversary for you to have no chance of landing any punches.
There's also a point at which an opponent's physical attributes are just so beyond you that the basic power punch becomes ineffective. A 120 pound coach potato probably isn't going to do more than annoy a 240 pound athlete with a punch. But in general a power punch can have some useful effect even on opponents who have some degree of physical superiority.
A spinning wheel kick to the head.
This requires a decent amount of practice and coordination and flexibility to have any chance at doing anything, even against an opponent who stands there with their hands down and lets you take a free shot. Without that minimum level of skill and attributes, you're likely going to just fall over or pull a muscle or just look like a doofus while your opponent laughs.
When you reach the minimum level of skill and athleticism to make the move work, you still need superior skill or speed compared to your opponent in order to land the kick, because of the distance the kick has to travel and the fact that you have to turn your back.
However once you move sufficiently past that minimum level of functionality and reach a high degree of speed, accuracy, and timing, then it becomes possible to land the kick with a reasonable degree of success on opponents of your own level, because the deceptiveness of the kick matters more than the extra split second it takes to land compared to a punch.
A rear naked choke.
In a grappling match, there are a ton of mini-battles of position that have to be fought and won before you can even attempt the choke. That's why you won't often see a white belt choke out a purple belt in BJJ - the odds of the white belt winning all those little victories in a row against a more skilled opponent are vanishingly small. However, if you have a free shot at the choke, such as grabbing an unsuspecting person from behind? Once again, untrained people do this every day in the real world and can often choke a bigger or more skilled person unconscious. Learning how to make the choke even more effective with some technical details doesn't take very long.
A berimbolo. (Click the link for those who don't know what that is.)
I've been training BJJ for 23 years and I'm a 2nd degree black belt. I know how to do a berimbolo (if I take the time to think about it). I won't try one in rolling even against a new white belt because I haven't spent the time and practice to develop the minimum skill to be functional with it. I'll do other techniques that I make up on the spot or that I just saw on video, but the berimbolo just requires a higher degree of specific training.
A standing outwards twisting wrist lock. (Kote gaeshi or omote gyaku or whatever it's called in your system)
This requires a fair degree of practice and skill to work effectively even against a cooperative training partner. Against a tough opponent who is seriously trying to take your head off? Almost impossible. However it does have potential real world application as sort of the grappling equivalent of a sucker punch against someone who is in pre-fight posturing mode. I've also used the threat of it in sparring to force a reaction that opens up something else that I want. (This gets to the issue of context that I mentioned earlier.)
Cutting or stabbing someone with a knife or a sword.
As I discussed recently in
another thread, a completely untrained person can inflict potentially lethal damage with a blade. They can even potentially do this to someone who is much more skilled with their own blade (although they will likely be cut or stabbed themselves in the process). It takes quite a large skill differential to reliably injure someone in a sword or knife fight and not run the risk of getting injured in return.
Okay, now that we've discussed individual techniques, let's get back to the idea of comparing different arts as you were originally.
When I grapple someone who is twice as skilled as I am, I will almost never finish any sort of submission. Usually I'm just working on survival.
When I box someone who is twice as skilled as I am, I will lose on points but will usually land a few shots. If we were fighting for real, I might have an outside chance of winning if I happened to land a lucky power shot before they dropped me with their own power shots. But probably not.
When I fence (historical, not Olympic) someone who is twice as skilled as me, it's not at all uncommon for me to land the first shot which might be lethal in a real fight or for the two of use to "double" (hit each other simultaneously.
Here's what I think the difference is:
In a sword fight, the superior fencer only has to make a single momentary mistake to take a lethal wound.
In a boxing match, the superior boxer has to make a momentary mistake to get hit, but will probably not lose unless they make a lot of mistakes or one big mistake.
In a submission grappling match, the superior grappler has to make a lot or mistakes in a row in order to get submitted.
