Clark Kent
<B>News Bot</B>
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- Sep 11, 2006
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12-12-2009 03:40 PM:
UFC 107 odds (Courtesy of Venetian Resort Hotel Casino):
Recommended plays in BOLD
Diego Sanchez (+220) v. B.J. Penn (-300) - UFC lightweight championship
Tonight is why Sanchez (21-2, 10-2 UFC) dropped to 155 pounds. Now that he's down at lightweight with a shot at the title, it's amazing that he still looks like the smaller fighter. It sounds like Sanchez' plan is to push the pace in an effort to tire Penn (14-5-1, 10-4-1 UFC), but that's a dangerous game against a guy with heavy hands and a great ground game. Sanchez wants to push this one into the fourth and fifth rounds. He's too reckless and will get finished before ever getting test Penn's cardio.
PICK: PENN -300
Cheick Kongo (+170) v. Frank Mir (-200) - Heavyweight
Mir (12-4, 10-4 UFC) is clearly the more well-rounded fighter and Kongo has trouble staying off his back. The fight comes down Mir's ability to avoid much time on the feet and for Kongo to stay light on his feet. Can Kongo (14-5-1, 7-3 UFC) stay composed after breaking down a bit mentally during the weigh-in? Kongo was fed up with all the disrespect thrown his way by Mir and turned his back during yesterday's faceoff. Mir also added an extra storyline by coming in at a bulky 264.5 pounds. Is this really the fight where he needed to pack on the extra muscle? We'll find out if it comes back to haunt him. The price is still very affordable on the much better fighter.
PICK: MIR -200
Clay Guida (+160) v. Kenny Florian (-190) - Lightweight
Both fighters are working with new head trainers. Guida has moved to Albuquerque to work with Greg Jackson while Florian dumped longtime friend Mark DellaGrotte for Firas Zahabi. I don't think we'll see a massive effect this time around. The hungry Florian (11-4, 9-3 UFC), coming off a loss against Penn, won't be easy to takedown and that's Guida's lone path to a victory. Florian has a size advantage and should be able to work over Guida on the ground to score a submission.
PICK: FLORIAN -190
Mike Pierce (+300) v. Jon Fitch (-400) - Welterweight
The only question in this one is Fitch's focus. He was slated to fight Ricardo Almeida at UFC 106 and then Thiago Alves at UFC 107. Both fights were dumped because of injuries. Fitch has been training for a longtime and was prepping for much more pretigious names, is he fired up to face a guy like Pierce, in the guy's second UFC fight? The former Purdue wrestler may not be but Pierce's skillset plays right into Fitch's strength. This may not be the most exciting fight and if Pierce (10-1, 1-0 UFC) gets enough top control he could always steal a round or two. The price is too high in what should be a grinder type fight.
PICK: PIERCE +325
Stefan Struve (+120) v. Paul Buentello (-150) - Heavyweight
Buentello makes his return to UFC after struggling to find fights over the last three years in smaller organizations. His striking should provide some big problems for Struve but we've got another psychological angle to deal with here. Buentello is in a war right now with his longtime trainer/manager Bob Cook. Cook won't be in his corner and Buentello's training was very stressful. Buentello should win the fight. Struve's 6-foot-11 frame is a big a target for "The Headhunter" but the drama entering the fight gives me pause.
PICK: STRUVE +120
Alan Belcher (+130) v. Wilson Gouveia (-160) - Middleweight
Gouveia's inability to get anywhere near 185 pounds has to be a factor tonight. Is he injured or did he just get lazy and gain too much weight since his last fight? The fighters agreed on a catch weight of 195, which means Belcher, in spite of being on pace, didn't have to cut anything. Belcher is an angry, motived guy. He got screwed at UFC 100 with a lousy decision loss to Yoshihiro Akiyama and he's bent about the fact that he's not on the PPV telecast. Belcher keeps it standing, Gouveia gasses and "The Talent" gets a nice underdog win.
PICK: BELCHER +130
Shane Nelson (+150) v. Matt Wiman (-180) - Lightweight
Wiman is a gamer but he is way too easy to hit and easy to takedown. Nelson should be peaking right now after spending so much time trainer with Penn. Nelson is also a little bigger than people realize. The betting has all been on the side of Wiman. We'll fire on Nelson, who is now plus-210 in Las Vegas.
PICK: NELSON +150
Ricardo Funch (+260) v. Johny Hendricks (-340) -Welterweight
Funch comes out of the Gabe Gonzaga camp in New England. Hendricks, a former national champion wrestler from Oklahoma State, got a little wake up call earlier this month when his teammate Jake Rosholt was abruptly cut from the UFC. Hendricks knows any loss could send him packing. Funch doesn't appear to be a slick submission fighter and that's the only area Hendricks could get caught.
PICK: HENDRICKS -340
Lucio Linhares (+280) v. Rousimar Palhares (-360) - Middleweight
There's a buzz about Linares around Memphis. He's the taller fighter and he's been diffucult to submit throughout his career. That said, there seems to be a little lack of respect for how dangerous Palhares submission game is. He is coming off of a long layoff but he should have more than enough to take out Linhares, who hasn't faced this level of competition.
PICK: PALHARES -360
Edgar Garcia (+110) v. DaMarques Johnson (-140) - Welterweight
It doesn't appear that Johnson won over too many bettors during his stint on "The Ultimate Fighter." He was destroyed in the final by James Wilks. And we saw what happened to Wilks in his true UFC debut against Matt Brown. As I said repeatedly throughout the show, the 170 class would produce zero legit prospects. Garcia, has a good wrestling background but his biggest strength is heavy hands. If Johnson chooses to throw wildly with Garcia, he'll get blasted out. This line has jumped to Garcia minus-220. We'd recommend a play on Garcia but now the line is too high. That's why it's important to jump on fights when the price is right.
PICK: GARCIA +110
T.J. Grant (+210) v. Kevin Burns (-270) - Welterweight
This line was way out of whack when it opened. It's an even fight. I like Grant's overall game. His ground work is more than solid and he's got an aggressive nature. Burn gets a little too wild for my liking. We'll fire ont he Canadian Grant. The line is currently close to a pick'em.
PICK: GRANT +210
More...
Yahoo! Sports.
Cagewriter is an MMA blog edited by Steve Cofield.
UFC 107 odds (Courtesy of Venetian Resort Hotel Casino):
Recommended plays in BOLD
Diego Sanchez (+220) v. B.J. Penn (-300) - UFC lightweight championship
Tonight is why Sanchez (21-2, 10-2 UFC) dropped to 155 pounds. Now that he's down at lightweight with a shot at the title, it's amazing that he still looks like the smaller fighter. It sounds like Sanchez' plan is to push the pace in an effort to tire Penn (14-5-1, 10-4-1 UFC), but that's a dangerous game against a guy with heavy hands and a great ground game. Sanchez wants to push this one into the fourth and fifth rounds. He's too reckless and will get finished before ever getting test Penn's cardio.
PICK: PENN -300
Cheick Kongo (+170) v. Frank Mir (-200) - Heavyweight
Mir (12-4, 10-4 UFC) is clearly the more well-rounded fighter and Kongo has trouble staying off his back. The fight comes down Mir's ability to avoid much time on the feet and for Kongo to stay light on his feet. Can Kongo (14-5-1, 7-3 UFC) stay composed after breaking down a bit mentally during the weigh-in? Kongo was fed up with all the disrespect thrown his way by Mir and turned his back during yesterday's faceoff. Mir also added an extra storyline by coming in at a bulky 264.5 pounds. Is this really the fight where he needed to pack on the extra muscle? We'll find out if it comes back to haunt him. The price is still very affordable on the much better fighter.
PICK: MIR -200
Clay Guida (+160) v. Kenny Florian (-190) - Lightweight
Both fighters are working with new head trainers. Guida has moved to Albuquerque to work with Greg Jackson while Florian dumped longtime friend Mark DellaGrotte for Firas Zahabi. I don't think we'll see a massive effect this time around. The hungry Florian (11-4, 9-3 UFC), coming off a loss against Penn, won't be easy to takedown and that's Guida's lone path to a victory. Florian has a size advantage and should be able to work over Guida on the ground to score a submission.
PICK: FLORIAN -190
Mike Pierce (+300) v. Jon Fitch (-400) - Welterweight
The only question in this one is Fitch's focus. He was slated to fight Ricardo Almeida at UFC 106 and then Thiago Alves at UFC 107. Both fights were dumped because of injuries. Fitch has been training for a longtime and was prepping for much more pretigious names, is he fired up to face a guy like Pierce, in the guy's second UFC fight? The former Purdue wrestler may not be but Pierce's skillset plays right into Fitch's strength. This may not be the most exciting fight and if Pierce (10-1, 1-0 UFC) gets enough top control he could always steal a round or two. The price is too high in what should be a grinder type fight.
PICK: PIERCE +325
Stefan Struve (+120) v. Paul Buentello (-150) - Heavyweight
Buentello makes his return to UFC after struggling to find fights over the last three years in smaller organizations. His striking should provide some big problems for Struve but we've got another psychological angle to deal with here. Buentello is in a war right now with his longtime trainer/manager Bob Cook. Cook won't be in his corner and Buentello's training was very stressful. Buentello should win the fight. Struve's 6-foot-11 frame is a big a target for "The Headhunter" but the drama entering the fight gives me pause.
PICK: STRUVE +120
Alan Belcher (+130) v. Wilson Gouveia (-160) - Middleweight
Gouveia's inability to get anywhere near 185 pounds has to be a factor tonight. Is he injured or did he just get lazy and gain too much weight since his last fight? The fighters agreed on a catch weight of 195, which means Belcher, in spite of being on pace, didn't have to cut anything. Belcher is an angry, motived guy. He got screwed at UFC 100 with a lousy decision loss to Yoshihiro Akiyama and he's bent about the fact that he's not on the PPV telecast. Belcher keeps it standing, Gouveia gasses and "The Talent" gets a nice underdog win.
PICK: BELCHER +130
Shane Nelson (+150) v. Matt Wiman (-180) - Lightweight
Wiman is a gamer but he is way too easy to hit and easy to takedown. Nelson should be peaking right now after spending so much time trainer with Penn. Nelson is also a little bigger than people realize. The betting has all been on the side of Wiman. We'll fire on Nelson, who is now plus-210 in Las Vegas.
PICK: NELSON +150
Ricardo Funch (+260) v. Johny Hendricks (-340) -Welterweight
Funch comes out of the Gabe Gonzaga camp in New England. Hendricks, a former national champion wrestler from Oklahoma State, got a little wake up call earlier this month when his teammate Jake Rosholt was abruptly cut from the UFC. Hendricks knows any loss could send him packing. Funch doesn't appear to be a slick submission fighter and that's the only area Hendricks could get caught.
PICK: HENDRICKS -340
Lucio Linhares (+280) v. Rousimar Palhares (-360) - Middleweight
There's a buzz about Linares around Memphis. He's the taller fighter and he's been diffucult to submit throughout his career. That said, there seems to be a little lack of respect for how dangerous Palhares submission game is. He is coming off of a long layoff but he should have more than enough to take out Linhares, who hasn't faced this level of competition.
PICK: PALHARES -360
Edgar Garcia (+110) v. DaMarques Johnson (-140) - Welterweight
It doesn't appear that Johnson won over too many bettors during his stint on "The Ultimate Fighter." He was destroyed in the final by James Wilks. And we saw what happened to Wilks in his true UFC debut against Matt Brown. As I said repeatedly throughout the show, the 170 class would produce zero legit prospects. Garcia, has a good wrestling background but his biggest strength is heavy hands. If Johnson chooses to throw wildly with Garcia, he'll get blasted out. This line has jumped to Garcia minus-220. We'd recommend a play on Garcia but now the line is too high. That's why it's important to jump on fights when the price is right.
PICK: GARCIA +110
T.J. Grant (+210) v. Kevin Burns (-270) - Welterweight
This line was way out of whack when it opened. It's an even fight. I like Grant's overall game. His ground work is more than solid and he's got an aggressive nature. Burn gets a little too wild for my liking. We'll fire ont he Canadian Grant. The line is currently close to a pick'em.
PICK: GRANT +210
More...
Yahoo! Sports.
Cagewriter is an MMA blog edited by Steve Cofield.
