Alright, I've got a challenge for the odds calculator out there.
Generally speaking, "progressive betting" is a bad idea, particularly on even-odds betting against the house. (Which, of course isn't really "even")
For those who haven't heard the term (I only know it thanks to the wizard of odds web site) You basically double the bet each time you lose. Eventually you'll win your money back. If you win, you keep it, and start counting over again.
So, I'm getting addicted to roulette. Possibly because that's already bankrupted me once, and it gives the illusion that you can sort of control the odds. Especially since our board only has one zero, instead of two, which gives us better odds.
I like covering 2/3rds of the table, which means that for every two dollars I risk, there's a 64.9% chance I'll win one dollar. I had won a couple hundred that way at the beginning, and then lost it all. It takes a while to gain, and you can lose fast on a bad run. Say you're betting 20 bucks a shot, it'll take 10 wins to gain 100, but only five losses to lose 100. So that's what happened.
Then I was reading "Casino Royale" and I got an idea. Although I don't take Ian Flemming's advice on a lot of stuff, including his first choice of a .22 pistol for defense, or even the .32 ACP. It described him playing a "progressive system" covering 2/3rds of the table. So I gave it a shot, with modifications. So far I'm up over $200.
Here's my thoughts, you can try it, or if you're math wizard, let me know how much of a fool I am.
I'm not going to go for exact odds, but I'll round them out, not counting the zero, to keep them simple. So I'll use odds like 1/3, or 33%, instead of 12/37ths, or 32.4%, which is way more complicated.
Say you start with $100
First round:
Bet 2 (1 on each 1/3rd) it doesn't matter which, as long as they don't overlap.
If you win, you gain 1. Be happy, go back to one. ($101)
If you lose, (odds are 33% against you) go to the second round --
Second round:
Bet 8 (4 on each 1/3rd)
If you win, you gain 2, go back to round one with $102.
If you lose, go to third round. Odds are 11% that you'll lose two in a row.
Third round:
Bet $30 ($15 on each 1/3rd)
If you win, you gain $5 overall, go back to round one with $105.
If you lose, go to the fourth round. Odds are 4% that you'll lose three in a row.
Fourth round:
Bet $100 - table max ($50 on each 1/3rd.)
If you win, you gain $10 overall. Count yourself lucky, and start over with $110.
If you lose, you're out $140, and hit the table max. You're on your own. (happened to me once, but I'm still up overall.) Odds are 1.2% (or roughly 1 in 81) that you'll loose all four rounds.
Of course, each individual round always stays at 33% (roughly). But four in a row is pretty rare.
The up side of the changes, is that you actually stand to gain after every time you lose, instead of simply breaking even, which will just sap your money in the long run.
If it seems like betting $100 on one go is a lot, remember that you can lose $100 on four consecutive losses by betting $25.
So far it's a fun way to play, but I'm not sure if I've just conned myself. What do you all think?
