Clark Kent
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11-21-2009 08:31 PM:Cagewriter is your spot for all the action tonight from Las Vegas. The betting public likes Jake Rosholt. He's jumped from a minus-160 favorite to minus-200. Kendall Grove is a plus-155 dog. That fight along with Ben Saunders versus Marcus Davis is on Spike at 9 p.m. ET. Davis is also being slammed by the public moving 60 cents all the way up to minus-240.
UFC 106 (Opening odds courtesy Venetian Resort Hotel Casino)
Recommended plays in BOLD
Pay-Per-View Bouts:
Forrest Griffin (-130) v. Tito Ortiz (Even) - Light Heavyweight
Based on Tito's time off and little time to prep for a fight of this magnitude, Griffin should be a gigantic favorite. He's not and because he lacks finishing power. Anytime a wrestler, like Ortiz enters the cage and we're looking at a decision situation, he's got a shot. Ortiz can score often with takedowns. We've seen Griffin taken down in past fight and smashed out with elbows and punches by Rashad Evans. This should turn out to be a nasty fight with a close decision going to Ortiz.
PICK: ORTIZ EVEN
Josh Koscheck (+140) v. Anthony Johnson (-170) - Welterweight
Johnson, 25, is a great prospect but we still have plenty of questions about his takedown defense and what he can do from his back. His knockout power is awesome and he's a huge dude for the weight class, but he lacks the overall game of Koscheck. Koscheck seemed to indicate that when Johnson spent a brief time at his gym in San Jose, Amaiercan Kickboxing Academy, it was child's play. Johnson has certainly improved but if Koscheck fights a wise fight and gets it to the ground, he rolls to a win.
PICK: KOSCHECK +140
Paulo Thiago (-330) v. Jacob Volkmann (+250) -Welterweight
Volkmann is making his debut after a decorated wrestling career at Minnesota. Thiago got an impressive win via knockout against Koscheck but we haven't seen enough of him to tab him a favorite of this size. Jon Fitch took down Thiago whenever he wants and the jiu-jitsu never came close to pulling off a submission. Volkmann should be able to score multiple takedowns, it's just a matter of him staying out Thiago's clutches. There's too much value on the wrestler to pass.
PICK: VOLKMANN +250
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (-130) v. Luis Cane (Even) - Light heavyweight
This is going to be a slugfest. Little Nog piled up some good wins in Japan but the last two years he's fought less than sterling competition. He can win this fight if it goes to the ground but if stays on the feet Cane can hang with anyone in the UFC 205 division. Watch for Cane's kicks to set up a finish on the feet.
PICK: CANE EVEN
Amir Sadollah (-180) v. Phil Baroni (+150) - Welterweight
There's still plenty of question about Sadollah and guy with two professional fights should not be able to compete with a veteran of 24 fights. But there's a lot of wear and tear on Baroni. He wasn't able to pull the trigger against Joe Riggs in June. What's going to be different here? If Sadollah avoids some big punches early, Baroni will wear down. Does Sadollah have finishing power? He's the pick but there's not enough of a track record to plunk down money.
PICK: SADOLLAH -180
Spike Television Preliminary Bouts:
Ben Saunders (+150) v. Marcus Davis (-180) - Welterweight
Saunders is dangerous for anybody. At 6-foot-3 you have to watch for his kicks and knees. But he's still a work in progress. He looked intimidated during his fight with Mike Swick. What's going to change here? Davis' should have a new attitude after a lackluster fight against Dan Hardy. Davis has the confidence and too many weapons to be taken out by Saunders.
PICK: DAVIS -180
Kendall Grove (+130) v. Jake Rosholt (-160) - Middleweight
This is a nightmare matchup for Grove. Another grappler who can get low on his 6-6 frame. Grove simply doesn't move enough to stay out of Rosholt's clutches for 15 minutes. Rosholt would be an official play but he'll probably put himself in more dangerous positions than he needs to. Rosholt, a three-time national champion wrestler at Oklahoma State, is trying to add all MMA elements to his game on the fly. The threat of a knee or guillotine from Grove is enough to keep me from officially putting money down on this one.
PICK: ROSHOLT -160
Non-Televised Preliminary Bouts:
Brock Larson (-400) v. Brian Foster (+300) -Welterweight
Larson can't afford another lackluster performance. He got taken down at will and laid on by Mike Pierce at Ultimate Fight Night 19. He drilled his wrestling heavily and knows he needs to win to stay in the UFC. Foster lost his UFC debut against Rick Story via arm-triangle choke. Larson is too dangerous on top, he'll do the same here and quickly.
PICK: LARSON -400
Caol Uno (-250) v. Fabricio Camoes (+200) - Lightweight
Camoes makes his UFC debut off three straight wins in Strikeforce and EliteXC. But the competition nowhere near the veteran Uno. This is a big step up. Uno should also be feeling a sense of urgency after lsoing a close decision to Spencer Fisher in what was a very boring fight. PICK: UNO -250
George Sotiropoulos (-500) v. Jason Dent (+350)- Lightweight
Dent has a decent showing on season nine of "The Ultimate Fighter" but now it's time for the big leagues. He's a well-rounded fighter but he doesn't belong at 155. Sotiropoulos looks like a real prospect after struggling for nearly two years with injuries. If Dent let's this go to the ground, he'll get ripped apart.
PICK: SOTIROPOULOS -500
More...
Yahoo! Sports.
Cagewriter is an MMA blog edited by Steve Cofield.
UFC 106 (Opening odds courtesy Venetian Resort Hotel Casino)
Recommended plays in BOLD
Pay-Per-View Bouts:
Forrest Griffin (-130) v. Tito Ortiz (Even) - Light Heavyweight
Based on Tito's time off and little time to prep for a fight of this magnitude, Griffin should be a gigantic favorite. He's not and because he lacks finishing power. Anytime a wrestler, like Ortiz enters the cage and we're looking at a decision situation, he's got a shot. Ortiz can score often with takedowns. We've seen Griffin taken down in past fight and smashed out with elbows and punches by Rashad Evans. This should turn out to be a nasty fight with a close decision going to Ortiz.
PICK: ORTIZ EVEN
Josh Koscheck (+140) v. Anthony Johnson (-170) - Welterweight
Johnson, 25, is a great prospect but we still have plenty of questions about his takedown defense and what he can do from his back. His knockout power is awesome and he's a huge dude for the weight class, but he lacks the overall game of Koscheck. Koscheck seemed to indicate that when Johnson spent a brief time at his gym in San Jose, Amaiercan Kickboxing Academy, it was child's play. Johnson has certainly improved but if Koscheck fights a wise fight and gets it to the ground, he rolls to a win.
PICK: KOSCHECK +140
Paulo Thiago (-330) v. Jacob Volkmann (+250) -Welterweight
Volkmann is making his debut after a decorated wrestling career at Minnesota. Thiago got an impressive win via knockout against Koscheck but we haven't seen enough of him to tab him a favorite of this size. Jon Fitch took down Thiago whenever he wants and the jiu-jitsu never came close to pulling off a submission. Volkmann should be able to score multiple takedowns, it's just a matter of him staying out Thiago's clutches. There's too much value on the wrestler to pass.
PICK: VOLKMANN +250
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (-130) v. Luis Cane (Even) - Light heavyweight
This is going to be a slugfest. Little Nog piled up some good wins in Japan but the last two years he's fought less than sterling competition. He can win this fight if it goes to the ground but if stays on the feet Cane can hang with anyone in the UFC 205 division. Watch for Cane's kicks to set up a finish on the feet.
PICK: CANE EVEN
Amir Sadollah (-180) v. Phil Baroni (+150) - Welterweight
There's still plenty of question about Sadollah and guy with two professional fights should not be able to compete with a veteran of 24 fights. But there's a lot of wear and tear on Baroni. He wasn't able to pull the trigger against Joe Riggs in June. What's going to be different here? If Sadollah avoids some big punches early, Baroni will wear down. Does Sadollah have finishing power? He's the pick but there's not enough of a track record to plunk down money.
PICK: SADOLLAH -180
Spike Television Preliminary Bouts:
Ben Saunders (+150) v. Marcus Davis (-180) - Welterweight
Saunders is dangerous for anybody. At 6-foot-3 you have to watch for his kicks and knees. But he's still a work in progress. He looked intimidated during his fight with Mike Swick. What's going to change here? Davis' should have a new attitude after a lackluster fight against Dan Hardy. Davis has the confidence and too many weapons to be taken out by Saunders.
PICK: DAVIS -180
Kendall Grove (+130) v. Jake Rosholt (-160) - Middleweight
This is a nightmare matchup for Grove. Another grappler who can get low on his 6-6 frame. Grove simply doesn't move enough to stay out of Rosholt's clutches for 15 minutes. Rosholt would be an official play but he'll probably put himself in more dangerous positions than he needs to. Rosholt, a three-time national champion wrestler at Oklahoma State, is trying to add all MMA elements to his game on the fly. The threat of a knee or guillotine from Grove is enough to keep me from officially putting money down on this one.
PICK: ROSHOLT -160
Non-Televised Preliminary Bouts:
Brock Larson (-400) v. Brian Foster (+300) -Welterweight
Larson can't afford another lackluster performance. He got taken down at will and laid on by Mike Pierce at Ultimate Fight Night 19. He drilled his wrestling heavily and knows he needs to win to stay in the UFC. Foster lost his UFC debut against Rick Story via arm-triangle choke. Larson is too dangerous on top, he'll do the same here and quickly.
PICK: LARSON -400
Caol Uno (-250) v. Fabricio Camoes (+200) - Lightweight
Camoes makes his UFC debut off three straight wins in Strikeforce and EliteXC. But the competition nowhere near the veteran Uno. This is a big step up. Uno should also be feeling a sense of urgency after lsoing a close decision to Spencer Fisher in what was a very boring fight. PICK: UNO -250
George Sotiropoulos (-500) v. Jason Dent (+350)- Lightweight
Dent has a decent showing on season nine of "The Ultimate Fighter" but now it's time for the big leagues. He's a well-rounded fighter but he doesn't belong at 155. Sotiropoulos looks like a real prospect after struggling for nearly two years with injuries. If Dent let's this go to the ground, he'll get ripped apart.
PICK: SOTIROPOULOS -500
More...
Yahoo! Sports.
Cagewriter is an MMA blog edited by Steve Cofield.
