Falling Crime Rates in Australia

[Steel Tiger]

I saw an interesting piece on television the other day. A study has just been completed that demonstrates a general down turn in crime over the last ten years in Australia. On average it is about 15%, but in some categories it is as high as 28%. However, the same report found that violent crime was general up. In particular sexual assault. Now this may be a false indicator in that they are looking at reported crime and it may be that victims of sexual assault are reporting the crime more frequently. The situation is not clear.

But the overall trend of the study is very interesting, because even with these results people are saying they feel much more unsafe than they have in the past. And not just for their physical safety, but in all aspects of their lives. It is clear that the media plays some part in this as they tend to report on bad things much more often than good things - bad news sells copy. I think, however, that there is a general trend toward people feeling helpless and unsafe in their own homes and neighbourhoods.

Has anyone else noticed this phenomenon in their neighbourhood or town?

 

[stickarts]

Thanks for the info! With some bad home invasions here recently, that has become more of a concern for many people in this area. Especially for the elderly.

 

[jkembry]

I can't be sure...but a lot of these statistics are based on actual reports. Perhaps people are saying that they don't feel as safe because actual crimes are being reported less, possibly due to fear or the feeling that nothing will be done by the authorities.

I am not sure that, even though we try, everything can be quantified accurately. I know where I work...much more credence is given to numbers that are assigned to tasks than is given to the actual work getting done.

Just a couple of thoughts.

 

[thardey]

I've become more aware of that general feeling as I've grown older. I don't know how much it is actually changing.

It seems I'm meeting more people who put their family's safety in the hands of the all-powerful dead-bolt, but then go and withdraw money from ATM's in the middle of the night, and don't think twice about it.

I'm meeting more women who take the weekend self-defense courses, or carry pepper spray, then dress provocatively when out on the town at night, and don't hesitate to walk to their car alone.

I think that people are feeling unsafe enough to do the band-aid fixes, but not enough to really change the way they live. At least in my area.

 

[FearlessFreep]

I can't be sure...but a lot of these statistics are based on actual reports. Perhaps people are saying that they don't feel as safe because actual crimes are being reported less, possibly due to fear or the feeling that nothing will be done by the authorities.

I am not sure that, even though we try, everything can be quantified accurately. I know where I work...much more credence is given to numbers that are assigned to tasks than is given to the actual work getting done.

Just a couple of thoughts.

The underlying premise to Psychohistory was that you could get human population to a large enough level to treat statistically and therefore predictively. I think an un-stated but underlying assumption was that you could actually collect accurate data about what people were really doing

 

[TheOriginalName]

I've seen similar reports isolated on crime in Melbourne (Australia).
In general minor crime is down. There are less stolen cars, house break ins, etc. However violent crime - or crimes with lethal weapons - is on the rise.

Personally i see this as a sign of improved security. Cars are harder to steel (alarms and immobilizers), houses are harder to break into (far improved home security) and even most public places are safer (CCTV). These all deter those "soft" crime criminals.

However this means that those who really "need" to commit crime must step up their game......which means they need to turn up the fear.....which means weapons - surringes, knives and in extreme cases guns (gun control laws are far tighter in Australia than the US).

On the subject of sexual assult - i personally believe we have not seen an increase in the crime just the increase in the crime being reported. 20 years ago the chances of getting a conviction were slim but now with DNA technology and such people (particularly women) feel that they are likely to put the bastards behind bars. I would even argue that TV shows such as Law & Order and CSI have helped make this change.

I personally believe that the media has also created the perception that the world is more unsafe today than ever before. They report on crime, terrorism and other nasties frequently and people get "brain washed" into believing they are unsafe. Personally i would think you are no more unsafe today than 20 years ago - and that as long as you use common sense you should survive just fine.

Anyway, just my thoughts on the issue.

 

[Empty Hands]

I think, however, that there is a general trend toward people feeling helpless and unsafe in their own homes and neighbourhoods.

Has anyone else noticed this phenomenon in their neighbourhood or town?

Oh yes. The root of the problem is that human beings are terrible at statistical reasoning. We go much more by anecdote, emotion, and what we see, even if it is inaccurate. For instance, my mother is afraid of crashing every time she gets on a plane. However, she has no problem getting in the car and driving everywhere, which is statistically much more dangerous. Or everyone bugging out over terrorism, when they won't take steps to alleviate the much more likely death from heart failure they are hurtling towards.

Same with crime. Crime rates are far below what they were 30 years ago. Yet due to the media feeding frenzy, everyone is far more terrified of something happening now than when things were more dangerous. According to the fearful of today, there are terrorists, pedophiles, and rapists lurking under every bush.