American Driving Declines By Steepest Amount In 100 Years

[Bob Hubbard]

American Driving Declines By Steepest Amount In 100 Years
From November to June, American driving dropped by 53.2 billion miles, according to the Department of Transportation. Billion. 53.2 billion fewer miles. That's insane, and kind of beautiful. [NYT]

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Gee, you think fricken crazy gas prices and unchallenged gouging at the pump might have something to do with it?

 

[Big Don]

Uh oh! That decline translates into a MAJOR loss in tax revenue. Be prepared for what comes next...

 

[Makalakumu]

Why? The government is so far in the red it doesn't matter any more. When the government talks about deficit spending, its for this year only. 9 trillion dollars is the contribution of 2008-2009 to the overall national debt.

Where does all of this debt money come from? Who is the government's lender? What do they do with the IOUs? Americans should be a lot more interested in this kind of stuff because the entire revenue of the income tax services the interest the national debt.

It was designed this way.

So, how much does the gas tax and the highway fees really matter? Can we even function as a society when private interests control the money supply?

 

[Big Don]

Last year the state of CA DMV and others proposed putting tracking devices in cars and charging a tax per mile driven, the justification given was that since fuel economy has improved by such a great margin in the past thirty years, the state is losing monies it would otherwise have if average fuel economy was still crap.

 

[Brian R. VanCise]

Big Don you have something going there in that if they do not get taxes there then they will look for it somewhere else. :erg:

 

[theletch1]

They'll just up the taxes on folks that have no choice but to keep on driving... the American trucker. I remember a time when diesel was far cheaper than gasoline. Not so anymore. I have a short little run of 300 miles a day. I burn 135+/- gallons of diesel every three days. That doesn't change. The freight has to get where it's going. If the average citizen follows the advice of various groups by cutting consumption they'll save a little money til the taxes on diesel sky rockets and the price of EVERYTHING you buy goes up.

 

[Sukerkin]

It is a very real economic 'truth' that the changes in the costs of transportation for an existing market get transferred directly to the consumer. So a rise in the price of fuel is an inflationary 'multiplier' as it has an impact on the price of pretty much everything else.

Of course, maunakumu's point about the overall fiscal state of the States is quite accurate too. The 'Richest Nation on Earth' appearance is a facade. Replace "Richest" with "Most Debt Ridden" and the truth is revealed. When it will collapse I don't know but I'm fairly sure that it will as soon as it suits those countries holding the 'markers' to call them in.

 

[Nolerama]

Some really good point being brought up... But as some of you have read my previous posts, cycling is getting a major boost in popularity this year alone.

That makes me happy.

As far as the tax thing goes, I'm sure the government will find some clever way to get revenue...

I might be joking, but this might have some truth in it: taxation on decriminalized marijuana (state-produced) sales in the state of CA? Talk about a tourism boom, as well as an increase in revenue.

 

[Big Don]

Big Don you have something going there in that if they do not get taxes there then they will look for it somewhere else. :erg:

They always are, this just gives them "justification".

 

[bluemtn]

Where I live, there is a bike trail that leads/ will lead from my county to the next one. Coincidentally, the trail runs near a highway. I've noticed a good bit more cyclists on the roads (not on the highway, obviously), lately.

 

[crushing]

My employer participated in a county-wide bike-to-work day to get people interested in riding their bikes. Also, my employer has started a carpool program and soon carpoolers will get the prime parking spots (well, just after handicapped and expectant mothers).

Soon, 2 people carpooling in a 15 mpg SUV will get a better parking spot than one person in a 38 mpg compact.

I understand that federal taxes are a set amount per gallon of gasoline. But, Michigan also charges a 6% sales tax on each gallon plus a set amount per gallon. I don't know about other states, but Michigan has had quite a windfall with the increase in gasoline prices (although the politicians won't mention it).

 

[Empty Hands]

This is interesting, as a cornerstone of the oil economic debate was that oil demand was inelastic. Obviously, that is not true. This probably means that at least the worst predictions won't come true, and the eventual oil transition may not be so severe as predicted.

 

[theletch1]

This is interesting, as a cornerstone of the oil economic debate was that oil demand was inelastic. Obviously, that is not true. This probably means that at least the worst predictions won't come true, and the eventual oil transition may not be so severe as predicted.

I don't think it's inelastic but I don't think there's a whole lot of give in it. A huge amount of the petroleum that is used goes elsewhere besides into a gas tank. The eventual transition can happen but it's going to be a balancing act to make it happen. There will HAVE to be a weaning off effect and not a "Ok, this saturday we stop using oil and start using pixie dust" scenario.

 

[Nolerama]

I don't think it's inelastic but I don't think there's a whole lot of give in it. A huge amount of the petroleum that is used goes elsewhere besides into a gas tank. The eventual transition can happen but it's going to be a balancing act to make it happen. There will HAVE to be a weaning off effect and not a "Ok, this saturday we stop using oil and start using pixie dust" scenario.

You're right. Petroleum is vital to our synthetic textile production... But one day, it will run out. Imagine the kind of change that would occur over the next 50-100 years when petroleum becomes more scarce. It would drastically change the way we buy all other consumer goods, alter the way we look at (and practice) medicine, and fundamentally transform our way of life.

I think we should get used to the waning of such goods before it becomes a "surprise" all of a sudden. Could there be a day when it won't be economically feasible to have the decision between paper or plastic at the grocery line? I think it's in our future.

But besides my quasi-paranoia about such things, I think we will get used to change fairly quickly. I suggest staying ahead of the curve and do what you can to help conserve our resources.

BTW, I highlighted the last part of your post, Letch, because it reminded me of my time in the Philippines last summer. Apparently, you can only drive your vehicle six days of the week. I think they fine pretty heavily (in a sliding scale) if you get caught driving on your off-day. I think it would be funny trying to see that fly in the US.

 

[theletch1]

If you remember we tried something sorta similar back in the 70s with the odd/even days for buying gas. Didn't go over well at all. I can only imagine what would happen if they forced folks not to drive at all one day a week. Personally, I wouldn't be against it, myself. I'm something of a homebody and actually enjoy spending time with my wife.

 

[Nolerama]

I know there's a worry about decreased tax revenue from a decline in gasoline sales. However, according to FactCheck.org, even some experts are unsure as to how much money the government makes off of gasoline sales.

That's kind of scary... not knowing who makes more: the government or private sector when it comes to oil.

However, on the flip side of saving money on oil by not driving, what about the inevitable spending on consumer goods? I see a rise in retail sales, once people get used to driving less, and having a little more spending cash.

 

[theletch1]

I know there's a worry about decreased tax revenue from a decline in gasoline sales. However, according to FactCheck.org, even some experts are unsure as to how much money the government makes off of gasoline sales.

That's kind of scary... not knowing who makes more: the government or private sector when it comes to oil.

However, on the flip side of saving money on oil by not driving, what about the inevitable spending on consumer goods? I see a rise in retail sales, once people get used to driving less, and having a little more spending cash.

I don't. The folks that HAVE to drive (read the American trucker) are going to have to pass on the increase somewhere. Unless you're completely self sufficient with your groceries the rise in prices for staples are going to eat up all the money you save by not driving.

 

[Sukerkin]

I do agree, as I said in an earlier post, that the fuel price increases have to push through to the economy as a whole at some point soon.

However, I do think that the money saved by not needlessly burning fuel will be greater than the rise in prices for most of the essential consumables.

Of course that will depend upon personal circumstances, including the country you're living in.

For me, if I choose to walk to town rather than drive, it takes me no more than half an hour. Not exactly a burden. I suspect that many Americans would not have such a geographically close cluster of shops, banks et al.

It seems to me quite obvious that whatever the shareholders in the 'mall' type developments would like, for the longevity of fuel resources it makes sense to go 'local' once more. Here a great many of our corner shops and pubs disappeared as the shopping centres and clubs rose to ascendency. As travel becomes more expensive then the drive (no pun intended) will be to re-create what we used to have.

The trick will be to do to sooner than later and the only people who can assure that is us, the consumer. Like ants, as individuals we are nothing; en masse, however ...

 

[Makalakumu]

This is the beauty of the Carbon Tax. Whether you burn gas, use electricity, buy food/breath oxygen/exhale carbon dioxide, you can always be taxed. The Carbon Tax is a tax on life itself. It will replace separate taxes on food and fuel because they are all related.

 

[Nolerama]

I don't. The folks that HAVE to drive (read the American trucker) are going to have to pass on the increase somewhere. Unless you're completely self sufficient with your groceries the rise in prices for staples are going to eat up all the money you save by not driving.

I do see where the American Trucker might factor into this. They're getting hit hard by the fuel increases, especially the independents.

However, as callous as I might sound: I think this might be the beginning of the end for the American trucker as we know him/her today. Unless we find an alternate way of fueling our transportation, I see (in the near future) a huge rise in creating/buying local goods, rather than relying on transported goods. Could the trucker be going the way of the dinosaur? I think it's VERY possible.

In that, it will be interesting to see who's selling what, and how far, in the upcoming years. In terms of food, I say local growers. Locals will buy it. The same with consumer goods. We will find innovation due to necessity. Maybe there will be solar-powered transport trucks in our future. Who knows?