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12-19-2009 06:45 PM:Cagawriter has full coverage of both WEC 45 in Las Vegas and Strikeforce: Evolution in San Jose. The coverage kicks off just after 8 p.m. ET. Strikeforce features Cung Lee in the main event against Scott Smith. the most meaningful fight has the promotion's lightweight title up for grabs with Josh Thomson and Gilbert Melendez squaring off.
In Sin City at the Palms, Donald Cerrone and Ed Ratcliff battle for a shot at the winner of January's fight between Jamie Varner and Ben Henderson. WEC stars like Anthony Njokuani, Joe Benavidez and Anthony Pettis are also on the card and it's the debut promotion debut for Chris Horodecki.
Let's break down the cards with the Las Vegas odds. the only house in Vegas booking both cards is the Venetian Sports Book.
STRIKEFORCE: EVOLUTION:
Recommended plays in BOLD:
Scott Smith (+325) v. Cung Le (-450) - Middleweight
Le has been off since March of 2008 and only back to training for the last few months. He had a movie role fall through and decided to help Strikeforce Coker by stepping up for a fight just before Christmas. If he were facing a ground artist, Le (6-0) would be in jeopardy but Smith (16-6) is going to look to trade with him. "Hands of Steel" has only had one fight go the distance in 22 tries. He'll be game for a while but we saw what happened when he tried to bang it out with Benji Radach and Nick Diaz. He was down against Radach and getting picked apart before pulling off a miracle knockout in the final round and against Diaz, Smith got severely busted up. It'll be a war early but Le's arsenal is too much.
PICK: LE -450
Gilbert Melendez (even) v. Thomson (-130) - Strikeforce Lightweight title
Fans have been waiting on this one forever. Thomson (16-2) upset Melendez (16-2) in June of 2008 and fought injuries the rest of this year. The ring rust makes me nervous. Melendez, who has a strong wrestling base, has been adding to his offensive game on the feet. In the first fight, Thomson's striking outclassed Melendez on the feet and he stuffed the majority of "El Nino's" takedown attempts. Melendez will come in with a better gameplan this time around and pull off the mild upset here.
PICK: MELENDEZ Even
Matt Lindland (+200) v. Ronaldo Souza (-250)- Middleweight
This is a tough read. Lindland's kryptonite seems to be elite strikers. He suffered awful knockouts losses against Vitor Belfort and David Terrell. In most of his middleweight fights, he's controlled the action. He can do it here but he obviously needs to stay active at all times against "Jacare" who is one of the top submission fighters in the world. Sure Lindland is 39, but he's still got some fights left in the tank. It'll be a nervous 15 minutes but I say he controls the fight and grind out a decision win.
PICK: LINDLAND +200Mike Whitehead (+350) v. Muhammed Lawal (-500) - Heavyweight
The Mo Lawal hype-machine has worked on casual bettors. His wrestling pedigree is awesome but he's a got a few things working against him. Can he outmuscle and throw around a guy who has 43 pounds on him? And on the feet, does Lawal (5-0) have the form and power to hurt Whitehead? The big question with Whitehead has always been the mental game. He's a better fighter at 261 pounds than he was ever going to be at 205. Lawal should win but clearly a bet has to be placed on the guy with 30 fights over the inexperienced Lawal.
PICK: WHITEHEAD +350
WEC 45:
Ed Ratcliff (+300) v. Donald Cerrone (-400) -Lightweight
This is a great matchup for Cerrone. His takedown defense is awful, but Ratcliff is no wrestler. Give me Cerrone standing against anyone at 155 in the WEC. This will be a slugfest. Cerrone has too many weapons and too much power on the feet for Ratcliff.
PICK: CERRONE -400
Chris Horodecki (+140) v. Anthony Njokuani (-170) - Lightweight
This is the most intriguing fight on the televised slate. Horodecki (13-1) made a name for himself as a 19-year-old fighting in the IFL. He was unbeaten until he ran into Ryan Schultz. Because of contract issues and fights falling through the last 20 months, Horodecki has only fought one. But that doesn't mean he wasn't training. Horodecki, 21, got to work with the great 155 and 170 pounders at Xtreme Couture for most of 2009 until moving with trainier Shawn Thompkins over to TapouT Training Center. He's got a tough assignment in the much longer Njokuani. This should be another war. The edge goes to Njokuani because of his kicks but it's a little too pricey for me.
PICK: NJOKUANI -170
Rani Yahya (+150) v. Joe Benavidez (-180) - Bantamweight
Yahya is a great submission fighter but Benavidez is too slick and his pace is too high to get caught in something silly. Benavidez can do it all on the feet but he in suffering his first career loss against Dominick Cruz, he showed that he's must employ a little more in-fight flexibility. Things weren't working against Cruz and he kept trying to slug it out from the outside against the taller fighter. He'll be motivated in the one and get back on the winning track.
PICK: BENAVIDEZ -180
Bart Palaszewski (+170) v. Anthony Pettis (-200) - Lightweight
This is a dynamite fight and some great matchmaking. Pettis, 21, is a dynamic striker and Palaszewski will be more than willing to stand in front of him and trade punches. Pettis should win via submission after he catches Palaszewski with something big. That said, the price is a little too high against a guy like Palaszewski who keeps on coming.
PICK: PETTIS -200
Scott Jorgensen (+110) v. Takeya Mizugaki (-140) - Bantamweight
This is another action fight. Mizugaki's engine is never ending. He went the distance with Miguel Torres. Jorgensen is a very good fighter but I don't think he has the finishing power to take out Mizugaki. The Japanese veteran does.
PICK: MIZUGAKI -140
Non-Televised:
Zack Micklewright (+170) v. Muhsin Corbbrey (-200) - Lightweight
Erik Koch (+180) v. Jameel Massouh (-220)- Featherweight
Kyle Dietz (+170) v. Brad Pickett (-200) - Bantamweight
Chad George (+170) v. John Hosman (-200) - Bantamweight
Courtney Buck (+325) v. Brandon Visher (-450) - Featherweight
More...
Yahoo! Sports.
Cagewriter is an MMA blog edited by Steve Cofield.
In Sin City at the Palms, Donald Cerrone and Ed Ratcliff battle for a shot at the winner of January's fight between Jamie Varner and Ben Henderson. WEC stars like Anthony Njokuani, Joe Benavidez and Anthony Pettis are also on the card and it's the debut promotion debut for Chris Horodecki.
Let's break down the cards with the Las Vegas odds. the only house in Vegas booking both cards is the Venetian Sports Book.
STRIKEFORCE: EVOLUTION:
Recommended plays in BOLD:
Scott Smith (+325) v. Cung Le (-450) - Middleweight
Le has been off since March of 2008 and only back to training for the last few months. He had a movie role fall through and decided to help Strikeforce Coker by stepping up for a fight just before Christmas. If he were facing a ground artist, Le (6-0) would be in jeopardy but Smith (16-6) is going to look to trade with him. "Hands of Steel" has only had one fight go the distance in 22 tries. He'll be game for a while but we saw what happened when he tried to bang it out with Benji Radach and Nick Diaz. He was down against Radach and getting picked apart before pulling off a miracle knockout in the final round and against Diaz, Smith got severely busted up. It'll be a war early but Le's arsenal is too much.
PICK: LE -450
Gilbert Melendez (even) v. Thomson (-130) - Strikeforce Lightweight title
Fans have been waiting on this one forever. Thomson (16-2) upset Melendez (16-2) in June of 2008 and fought injuries the rest of this year. The ring rust makes me nervous. Melendez, who has a strong wrestling base, has been adding to his offensive game on the feet. In the first fight, Thomson's striking outclassed Melendez on the feet and he stuffed the majority of "El Nino's" takedown attempts. Melendez will come in with a better gameplan this time around and pull off the mild upset here.
PICK: MELENDEZ Even
Matt Lindland (+200) v. Ronaldo Souza (-250)- Middleweight
This is a tough read. Lindland's kryptonite seems to be elite strikers. He suffered awful knockouts losses against Vitor Belfort and David Terrell. In most of his middleweight fights, he's controlled the action. He can do it here but he obviously needs to stay active at all times against "Jacare" who is one of the top submission fighters in the world. Sure Lindland is 39, but he's still got some fights left in the tank. It'll be a nervous 15 minutes but I say he controls the fight and grind out a decision win.
PICK: LINDLAND +200Mike Whitehead (+350) v. Muhammed Lawal (-500) - Heavyweight
The Mo Lawal hype-machine has worked on casual bettors. His wrestling pedigree is awesome but he's a got a few things working against him. Can he outmuscle and throw around a guy who has 43 pounds on him? And on the feet, does Lawal (5-0) have the form and power to hurt Whitehead? The big question with Whitehead has always been the mental game. He's a better fighter at 261 pounds than he was ever going to be at 205. Lawal should win but clearly a bet has to be placed on the guy with 30 fights over the inexperienced Lawal.
PICK: WHITEHEAD +350
WEC 45:
Ed Ratcliff (+300) v. Donald Cerrone (-400) -Lightweight
This is a great matchup for Cerrone. His takedown defense is awful, but Ratcliff is no wrestler. Give me Cerrone standing against anyone at 155 in the WEC. This will be a slugfest. Cerrone has too many weapons and too much power on the feet for Ratcliff.
PICK: CERRONE -400
Chris Horodecki (+140) v. Anthony Njokuani (-170) - Lightweight
This is the most intriguing fight on the televised slate. Horodecki (13-1) made a name for himself as a 19-year-old fighting in the IFL. He was unbeaten until he ran into Ryan Schultz. Because of contract issues and fights falling through the last 20 months, Horodecki has only fought one. But that doesn't mean he wasn't training. Horodecki, 21, got to work with the great 155 and 170 pounders at Xtreme Couture for most of 2009 until moving with trainier Shawn Thompkins over to TapouT Training Center. He's got a tough assignment in the much longer Njokuani. This should be another war. The edge goes to Njokuani because of his kicks but it's a little too pricey for me.
PICK: NJOKUANI -170
Rani Yahya (+150) v. Joe Benavidez (-180) - Bantamweight
Yahya is a great submission fighter but Benavidez is too slick and his pace is too high to get caught in something silly. Benavidez can do it all on the feet but he in suffering his first career loss against Dominick Cruz, he showed that he's must employ a little more in-fight flexibility. Things weren't working against Cruz and he kept trying to slug it out from the outside against the taller fighter. He'll be motivated in the one and get back on the winning track.
PICK: BENAVIDEZ -180
Bart Palaszewski (+170) v. Anthony Pettis (-200) - Lightweight
This is a dynamite fight and some great matchmaking. Pettis, 21, is a dynamic striker and Palaszewski will be more than willing to stand in front of him and trade punches. Pettis should win via submission after he catches Palaszewski with something big. That said, the price is a little too high against a guy like Palaszewski who keeps on coming.
PICK: PETTIS -200
Scott Jorgensen (+110) v. Takeya Mizugaki (-140) - Bantamweight
This is another action fight. Mizugaki's engine is never ending. He went the distance with Miguel Torres. Jorgensen is a very good fighter but I don't think he has the finishing power to take out Mizugaki. The Japanese veteran does.
PICK: MIZUGAKI -140
Non-Televised:
Zack Micklewright (+170) v. Muhsin Corbbrey (-200) - Lightweight
Erik Koch (+180) v. Jameel Massouh (-220)- Featherweight
Kyle Dietz (+170) v. Brad Pickett (-200) - Bantamweight
Chad George (+170) v. John Hosman (-200) - Bantamweight
Courtney Buck (+325) v. Brandon Visher (-450) - Featherweight
More...
Yahoo! Sports.
Cagewriter is an MMA blog edited by Steve Cofield.
