Beer + Pretzels: The Original Divine Winds

[grydth]

Note: This is a offshoot of the popular Western Sword vs Katana thread. Rather than hijacking or diverting that, I thought to start this one here and test the waters for interest.

It is widely known that the Mongols tried to invade Japan twice; on each occasion their fleet was ravaged by ferocious hurricanes which destroyed numerous ships and drowned tens of thousands of soldiers.

But... what if the storms had never materialized? Who would have carried the day?

I say the Mongols would have.... anyone disagree?

P.S.: I use "Beer + Pretzels" to mean have a fun debate, do your best... but it is nothing to draw real katanas over. This is something one can endlessly speculate over, but never know or prove for sure.

The Great and Wise Grydth, General Counsel to the Great Khan :hammer:

 

[Mr. E]

I say the Mongols would have.... anyone disagree?

I do.

The supply lines were just too long and too vulnerable. The Mongols never pulled something like that off. They moved forward a few miles at a time in a relentless wave. The gap between Korea and Japan would have taxed them beyond what they could have pulled off. And it was captured Korean ships and crew that they relied on to transport their soldiers and supplies. They had no experience of their own in pulling this type of thing off and never tried again after this.

 

[grydth]

Your points do have historical merit, I'll grant you that.... but would this have been enough to turn the tide in Japan's favor without the benefit of 2 fortuitous hurricanes? I think not.

Certainly the Mongol navy had its grave flaws... but did the Japanese Navy of the era have the forces and the experience to take decisive advantage of them? I do not believe so... in fact, having to defend 4 main islands would have taxed the Japanese forces to the limit.

Aggressive and expansionistic military states tend to rapidly find ways to do things which have not been done before. Certainly the defending Samurai improved somewhat between invasions and the Mongols could well have done the same.... had that first fleet returned home intact and reported in, the second invasion may well have come much sooner.

The Mongols indeed did not try a third time - but they could well have been much more impressed by their own shortcomings in weather forecasting and ship vulnerability to extreme weather than by any resistance expected.

What did the defenders think of their own chances? Well, I doubt they'd have called it the Divine Wind if certain of victory... maybe they'd have called it the "We'd a'whupped 'em anyway Wind"

 

[Steel Tiger]

Its a tough thing to determine. I think I would have to say the Mongols would have been more successful, but ultimately would have failed.

The invasion was not carried out with the normal Mongol equipment and tactics. Contemporary illustrations form both China and Japan show a very Chinese looking force. If this was the case then it is likely that a different approach to supply was in use. The Chinese had a shocking reputation for failure in battle at the time, however, so it might not have helped much.

Japanese naval skills at the time were not bad. Japanese pirates regularly raided both China and Korea, so the likelihood of the Japanese being able to disrupt maritime supply lines was probably pretty good.

An interesting effect of the Mongol invasion was to unite the rather fractious Japanese against the invaders. it seems likely that this would have happened regardless of the number of Mongol troops that hit the shore. Though, maybe, if there had been a lot of them, some of the Japanese clans in the region might have gone over to the enemy.

 

[grydth]

Well, history does record that some hundreds of years later the monarchs of the British Empire were very successful in turning pirates into HMS, with telling effects against the Spanish. Would/could the Japanese have persuaded their pirates of the era to turn on the Mongols, and if so, how effective would they have been against a fair sized force? Or, would the pirates have preyed on the suddenly very distracted Japanese ships?

The Mongols clearly seemed as bad at logistics as weather forecasting. Yet, had the first fleet returned, unscathed by the weather, reported on the various shortages (i.e. arrows)... might they have been back for the sequel campaign before the Samurai had fully digested the lessons of the first?

 

[Steel Tiger]

I think you raise a valid point. The pirates would probably have gone after the easier prey, which might very well have been Japanese shipping.

A thought just occurred to me at your mention of weather forecasting. It would seem that the Mongols were probably operating on a seasonal system so that they could maximise manpower for the harvest and warfare. It may be that they left themselves with little choice other than to make their invasion attempts during a high risk period as a result.

After their victories it seems that the Japanese fell back into their normal pattern fairly quickly. So, even if lessons were learned quickly, it may have been of no use as they would have had to have gone through the whole process of uniting again. This would, in effect, slow down their reaction to an invasion.

 

[jks9199]

I'd say that there's a good chance that the Mongols would have won individual battles, but wouldn't have been successful ruling and integrating Japan into their kingdom. I just don't think what I know of their ruling techniques would have worked when dealing with the island nations of Japan.

 

[Steel Tiger]

I'd say that there's a good chance that the Mongols would have won individual battles, but wouldn't have been successful ruling and integrating Japan into their kingdom. I just don't think what I know of their ruling techniques would have worked when dealing with the island nations of Japan.

Can't help but agree with you on this.

Just look at the duration of the vast Mongols empires that were created by Genghis and his sons. They tended to fragment into smaller political units. The sea would have perhaps proven a significant obstacle to maintaining control of the islands.

 

[grydth]

I'd say that there's a good chance that the Mongols would have won individual battles, but wouldn't have been successful ruling and integrating Japan into their kingdom. I just don't think what I know of their ruling techniques would have worked when dealing with the island nations of Japan.

Some horrible thoughts - but what if the Mongols did as they had elsewhere and simply annihilated the resisting inhabitants? I believe there were instances of this happening early in the first invasion. Even had the Mongols eventually left, the damage done to the very foundations of Japanese society might have proven irreparable.

 

[Carol]

I don't think the storms can be taken out of the picture entirely.

Perhaps the Mongols could have been lucky enough on their original trip to make it to Japan without facing a tsunami or taifun, but they would have needed supplies and reinforcements to take on the entire nation...and eventually the weather would have taken its toll on the Mongol forces.

 

[grydth]

Yes, a sound observation...even for beer and pretzels purposes, reality must be observed. There are frequent storms and upheavals in that region, and it is clear the Mongol Navy of the era was unable to cope with them.

Yet, Mother Nature seems to save the worst storms for war years... (Another 'what if' has been the Russian Winter of 1941-2. There are no easy Russian Winters, but that one was horrific)

As Musashi taught about timing sword cuts, weather timing can also be decisive. I believe that, had those been relatively quiet storm years - or storms that came after the Mongols had conquered a major harbor - they caould have conquered Japan.

 

[Cryozombie]

Ninjas caused those storms. Heh heh.

In all seriousness, I think the mongols were better suited to the type of battle they would have brought the Japanese IF the Japanese were "mainland" like China or Korea. I think, as was stated earlier, the need to cross the water into Japan was the major failing in the Mongol strategy, and even if they had taken the shores, might have been hard pressed to keep it if the Japanese destroyed the resources on land the Mongols would have needed (ie. Crops and homes)

 

[tellner]

My money would be on the Mongols. They were unified. They were very experienced in conquering just about everyone just about everywhere. They had the resources. They had a superior professional army that had proved it could take on the best that anyone else had. The Japanese had only fought each other.

 

[kaizasosei]

i believe, the mongols along with china were were one culture and peoples that had the greatest influences on japan. then would come korea and areas of southeast asia, taiwan-??...
so as i see it, it wasn't japan against the mongols, it was japan against the outsiders.

within japan itself, the balance of different countries(ancient states within japan) wasn't always stable yet a collective stability and political understanding of a single nation under heaven was one of the founding principles of the empire.

one could compare japanese history to what is happening in the world now. this idea is not new. the islands of japan have been compared to the world in a few different ways.

i was taught that in the old days, when someone in japan had the title nihon ichiban. it didn't mean that he was the best in japan, it meant that he was the best in the world. not that japanese were oblivious to the world. naturaly being isolated by the ocean, they still had contact with a variety of outside nations as well as emissaries at different times in history.

rather, than becoming distracted by all the earthly confusion, the japanese empire set up its throne directly under heaven, so to speak. so any outsiders were inherently neither friend or foe, but by the nature of their actions did this kingdom between heaven and earth define their position.

i think the mongols would have eventualy lost, because they would have gotten scattered and lost. almost as dumb a move as when tamerlan decided to hit china. on the other hand, if more had made it they would have had the chance to have had greater influence still. i think it sucks having to fight right after a seavoyage.





j





j

 

[FearlessFreep]

The Great and Wise Grydth, General Counsel to the Great Khan

Evidently you didn't do a good job of convincing him to stay out of the Mutara Nebula

 

[Blotan Hunka]

I dont think the Mongols would have been able to pull of the cross water logistics.

 

[Xue Sheng]

The first invasion the Mongols made land fall but returned to their ships so they would not be stranded on Japanese soil due to the impending storm. The invasion was lost due to that storm forcing many ships to put back out to see and return home and those that stayed behind stood little chance against the Japanese.

The second invasion the Mongols had a larger fleet but many of the ships used were not made for ocean voyages they were flat bottom river boats that stood little chance in a Tsunami. However the Mongol invasion on land was beaten back by the Samurai the second time and then the storm hit and wiped out much of the fleet, not all.

The samurai had superior swords but not superior weapons in general and they were rather ill prepared for the first invasion but expected a second. Kublai Khan sent emissaries twice to Japan (after the first invasion) and both times they got their heads cut off. Also the Japanese fortified the coast before the second invasion.

Would the Mongols have been able to hold Japan if they took it? Good question but there is really no way of knowing for sure. However I tend to believe they would have as long as they held China. After that however it is hard to say. Possibly they would have held it and just ended up being another dynasty of Japan. But you must also take into consideration that the Mongols were the only invaders of China that did not end up getting absorbed by Chinese Culture, after they lost China they went back to being Mongols. Most invaders of China were so Chinese by the time they were overthrown they had no home left to go to. So they could also have just up and left Japan and returned to Mongolia, had they actually taken Japan, after they lost China.

It is also possibility that as far back as the Qin dynasty that an emissary of the Qin dynasty set up his own kingdom on Japan and eventually was absorbed into Japanese culture or had an effect on the Japanese culture of the time and had influence on what Japanese culture became.

But back to the Mongols, the Mongols of Kublai Khan tended to be as ruthless as…well… a Mongol and they tended to kill everyone they could that they felt was in opposition to them so if they did invade Japan and take over Japan it is not unlikely that they would have killed a whole lot of people starting with Samurai and ruling families and then just about whomever else they thought might be a threat and a few more just to make their point.

Also the Mongol invasion army was made up of Chinese and Koreans as well as Mongols. And the Mongols at that time held Korea so the travel to Japan was really not all that far nor all that dangerous… unless of course you went during the season Tsunamis came a calling…. Which they did...twice.