Interesting theory but still no conclusive proof of it all.
Autism linked with rainfall in study
- Thread starter MA-Caver
- Start date
Interesting theory but still no conclusive proof of it all.
*sigh* Of all things. You know, I think there's more autistic kids here because this area used to be one of the best in serving kids with autism and people have been flocking here for about 25 years.
As the mom of an autistic kid, I'd just like to say:
As the mom of an autistic kid, I'd just like to say:
Autism Related to Booger Picking. Film at Eleven.
:shrug:
I can "hear" the exasperation in your voice, Geo. I still think you're a great mom for doing all you do. Even if this idea DOES seem like a dead end doesn't every avenue of possibility need exploring?
Of course. :asian:
It's just that we have so many other avenues to explore that hold greater causal probabilities - hormone imbalances were once treated with porcine secretin with really good results. Demyelinization has been found in almost every kid with autism that has been tested for it. Allergies are prevalent in most cases. Immune disorders and liver disorders also.
Perhaps there's some form of mold that grows here or something ... but then ... does it grow in India? Sudan? Other arid climates? Australia? Peru. France? Greece!
Why wouldn't most children develop autism regardless of age if it were related to rain? It would seem Vietnam would be rampant with autistic persons.
Sorry ... I just think there are more important avenues to explore than ... rain. It probably effectuates depression which would exacerbate symptoms in just about anyone, but ... well, hell. Maybe autism is an allergy to Hydrogen. :idunno:
We get a similar trend in New Jersey...autism increase...but lots of really good autism programs in the state.
The study designers should look at the ages of the parents when the autistic children were conceived. I read some reall yinteresting data looking damage to genes in older sperm...nothing conclusive, but a damn sight more probabaly than the "rainfall hypothesis."
Peace,
Erik
The study designers should look at the ages of the parents when the autistic children were conceived. I read some reall yinteresting data looking damage to genes in older sperm...nothing conclusive, but a damn sight more probabaly than the "rainfall hypothesis."
Peace,
Erik
Ninjamom
2nd Black Belt
Three classes of lies: "There are lies, damn lies, and statistics."
It seems highly unlikely that rainfall 'causes' autism, but it may provide an important correlation (and therefore a clue) for the 'real' cause. Statistical correlations, or lack thereof, can also be used to eliminate certain potential 'causes' from further consideration.
The importance of the finding lies in the interpretation. If there is a statistical correlation between autism and rainfall, then it should be explored. For instance, what if industrial pollutants across the Pacific cause higher autism rates, but they are predominantly introduced into the local environment with the higher rainfall?
It seems highly unlikely that rainfall 'causes' autism, but it may provide an important correlation (and therefore a clue) for the 'real' cause. Statistical correlations, or lack thereof, can also be used to eliminate certain potential 'causes' from further consideration.
The importance of the finding lies in the interpretation. If there is a statistical correlation between autism and rainfall, then it should be explored. For instance, what if industrial pollutants across the Pacific cause higher autism rates, but they are predominantly introduced into the local environment with the higher rainfall?
Correlation doesn't equal causation. When two seemingly disparate phenomenon seemt o correlate, there is usually one or two "in-between" factors.
Is there a trend for men in the Pacific northwest to be having children later in life? Is there something about the IDD/Autism services in that part of the country that make going there beneficial to folsk raising kids on the spectrum?
the field is already plagued with weak correlations as it is and thi sleads to so many probalem to those of us trying to treat thes eindividuals and improve services. I find reporting like this to caus emore problems than it solves...it's more about the sensationalism tahn good science (or journalism for that matter).
Peace,
Erik
Is there a trend for men in the Pacific northwest to be having children later in life? Is there something about the IDD/Autism services in that part of the country that make going there beneficial to folsk raising kids on the spectrum?
the field is already plagued with weak correlations as it is and thi sleads to so many probalem to those of us trying to treat thes eindividuals and improve services. I find reporting like this to caus emore problems than it solves...it's more about the sensationalism tahn good science (or journalism for that matter).
Peace,
Erik
Correlations are just a start. Now the real work begins.
Cirdan
Senior Master
Yes.. and global warming is caused by declining numbers of pirates.
I agree it is a place to begin.
I think it should be listed to give others the chance to put together the pieces, but the problem is that it is many times presented with false hope to generate money or support.
"G",
Not being in your shoes or even close I can only relate at best.
I think rainfall might be an issue if combined with what you and others have listed as other inputs into the equation. I know the human being and our problems are not easy equations. I am not trying to make it simple.
In my job, I take lots of little pieces of data and try to find trends and or errors in logic that could lead to the data that is seen. The complexity of a vehicle which is very complex and cannot be fully modeled for all conditions, is simple compared to the Human Being. But I think it will be something like this that someone will begin to start to put together some small pieces. They might be just treatment of symptoms at first, then it might be they find that while it looked good on the small scale on the large scale it did not fit or vice versa.
I know it might seem like false hope to you, but to me it seems good as it means that there are people looking into the system not just the pieces (* those with Autism *).
Could I ask about the Liver Disorders? I have Gilberts, which is a genetic disorder of the liver. I know that diet and environment effect me and I regulate what I can. I am being selfish here, as I would like to learn more and maybe see if there is some information in the one research that could help me in the other.
Thanks
It was also found to be absolutely true that ice cream sales cause drowning and higher crime rates. There is a direct and very high correlation between ice cream sales and both of those things.
It isn't REALLY the ice cream sales of course....it just so happens that summer is when people go swimming and therefore there are more incidences of drowning and summer is also when people buy ice cream. Just like crime, crime is more prevalent in good weather than in bad weather because even criminals don't want to be out in the cold!
This is just another correlation that has nothing to do with reality because variables were left out of the model and all of the issues were not examined.
It isn't REALLY the ice cream sales of course....it just so happens that summer is when people go swimming and therefore there are more incidences of drowning and summer is also when people buy ice cream. Just like crime, crime is more prevalent in good weather than in bad weather because even criminals don't want to be out in the cold!
This is just another correlation that has nothing to do with reality because variables were left out of the model and all of the issues were not examined.
Exactly. Here's why I cannot look at this as a starting point and why it perturbs me so much. This information is being put as as "scientific fact." Now, parents with autisitc children are really living in unimaginably difficult circumstances (I know, I foster two children with severe autism...I also spend my days treating working wiht children on the spectrum). These parents are looking for ANY glimmer of hope that they can do more make a bigger difference in alleviating the difficulties that arise from their children's condition.
Here is what I see on an almost daily basis in my interactiosn with parents and advocates. Shots cause autism? Stop getting shots. Allergies cause autism? Put these children on incredibly restricitve and difficult diets (that not only affect the child, but their siblings and family as well).
These and other interventions don't have much (if any) clinical support...but the information is out there and is often promoted by some groups as the way to go. It is hard for lay people to really distinguish the fact from the fiction.
They also then sometimes choose to forego or eschew the researched proven effective interventions. Why? The stuff that works is hard, does not really promise anything that looks like a cure...behaviorial interventions and communication training may reduce rates of challenging behaviors...but individuals ecieving these therapies are still autistic. however, should one theoretically get rid of the gluten in one's diet that triggers allerguies that cause autism...then your child may be cured.
Thing is, I've never seen diet, vitamins, or any of these fringe comlimentary therapies work. Sure, if the child is identified with a legitimate allergy, then treat it. But what can I do as a clinician when i recommend a therapy or treatment to a fmaily and they say "no" because they want to go with kelation treatments or sensory integration? Now time and money are being wasted (in my opinion) and windows of opportunity for effective intervention are closing.
It is nothing but frustrating.
Studies like this feed into that. What do you do? Move to Arizona so you don't get rained on? We need to focus our resources where they will do th emost good (genetics, nerology, education) if we are to truly cure autism.
Peace,
Erik
Here is what I see on an almost daily basis in my interactiosn with parents and advocates. Shots cause autism? Stop getting shots. Allergies cause autism? Put these children on incredibly restricitve and difficult diets (that not only affect the child, but their siblings and family as well).
These and other interventions don't have much (if any) clinical support...but the information is out there and is often promoted by some groups as the way to go. It is hard for lay people to really distinguish the fact from the fiction.
They also then sometimes choose to forego or eschew the researched proven effective interventions. Why? The stuff that works is hard, does not really promise anything that looks like a cure...behaviorial interventions and communication training may reduce rates of challenging behaviors...but individuals ecieving these therapies are still autistic. however, should one theoretically get rid of the gluten in one's diet that triggers allerguies that cause autism...then your child may be cured.
Thing is, I've never seen diet, vitamins, or any of these fringe comlimentary therapies work. Sure, if the child is identified with a legitimate allergy, then treat it. But what can I do as a clinician when i recommend a therapy or treatment to a fmaily and they say "no" because they want to go with kelation treatments or sensory integration? Now time and money are being wasted (in my opinion) and windows of opportunity for effective intervention are closing.
It is nothing but frustrating.
Studies like this feed into that. What do you do? Move to Arizona so you don't get rained on? We need to focus our resources where they will do th emost good (genetics, nerology, education) if we are to truly cure autism.
Peace,
Erik
I know, Rich. Thank you.
I understand what you're saying and you're logically correct, of course. Hopefully all these coincidental nothings will soon add up to an incidental something.
Sure, Rich. You can ask me anything and I'll always offer what I know of autism either by direct experience or listening/observation experience.
My son has lost two autistic friends to a liver disorder (I'm sorry, I don't know the name - it's not what parents want to talk about when their children die) where the organ is unable to correctly process minerals in the body, most often copper and tin. Both of the children we knew through school (according to the teacher's account from the parents) had high levels of lead, copper, tin and mercury in their livers as well as live measles in their intestines and other organs - found in autopsy. Now to be fair and honest - the two children I'm referencing we had limited exposure to and we were not close with their families. The teacher had received some information from the parents and requested permission to share with the parents of the other autistic children on their behalf (for obvious reasons). These two children were fully vaccinated and had "sudden onset autism" where all accounts of the child up to a certain age were completely normal until some point in toddlerhood where they either began a decline or experienced some incident from which they never returned to normal capacity.
The liver issues were not diagnosed until the children were having seizures and went to the ER. The parents had requested biopsies of the intestines for each child but were refused.
That's all I really know.
Tell that to the pediatricians who are misdiagnosing these children every day, that refuse to allergy test for vaccine components, refuse to order liver panels or other diagnostic tools for co-morbid conditions. These professionals deal with 1. the assumption that every parent coming into their office with an autistic child can't cope with the diagnosis and 2. the fact that almost no insurance company will pay for tests arising from a diagnosis of autism nor the treatment of autism itself, hence anything related to the disorder can be rejected by the insurance company and their practice/hospital/clinic has a small possibility of being reimbursed for services rendered.
The problem is there is scientific fact/proof and then there is observational truth. My child was helped (not cured) with dietary changes, vitamins and allergy treatment. But we can't know if they might be allergic to something else we haven't figured out yet, might be missing, shy or in excess of a hormone we never monitor as a rule because ... we can't get physicians to test for it.
I don't know of anyone who has the resources nor insurance to pay for all interventions available for their autistic children. For far too many of us we have to make a choice between paying incredible rates for private, professional services or a lawyer to force the school district to provide what our kids need so they may be educated ... by far a distant second to the kind of professional services they require. I would never be able to afford a speech therapist to come to my house every day or to see one every day for my son, not even once a month. It is more often a matter of finance and insurance ... at least in the circles I've been in and am in.
I have, but it's more on the side of rare that a child emerges from nutritional therapies undiagnosable. More often than not, I've seen a reduction in rage behaviors, self-injury, violence, sensory problems and an increase in eye contact, verbal abilities, communication and general health.
Q...F...T.
There are some steps that are lagging behind, no? Very real ones ... like insurance coverage for the treatment of autism; like liver panels on all developmentally-challenged kids; like titers for humans; like systemic allergy panels on newborns instead of a shot introduced within 24 hours of birth; like physicians getting over themselves and working with parents who observe and report instead of writing them off as uneducated, paranoid, internet-inspired fools.
It's the politics of health that are holding advancement in the study of autism back.
I absolutely agree that the way we manage health care in this country...particularly with persisent condition such as autism is , kin a word, deplorable. I waste so much time during the week justifying what i do (both as a professional and as a parent) to managed care organizations that are looking to promote a) short-term treatments and b) cost-effective treatments. They seem sometimes mystified that i somehow can't "fix" the probelms and send my clients home.
I'm not suggetsting that propoer nutrition, diet, allergies/food sensitivities is bunk. Far from it. It's an important piece of the puzzle. When you manage a given child's particualr sensitivities it does reduce challenging behaviors and increase the ability to teach desired communication, social and daily living skill behaviors. What frsutrates me is the exteme push sometimes for specialized diets, vitamin treatment and the liek without supporting evidence of their need for a particular individual. There is, for some advocacy movements, an implicit assumption that people on the spectrum automatically ahve certain food sensitivities and the like. My experience tells me oherwise.
I also knwo how har4d it is to get the proper testing, money for needed services (ask me sometime abotu what we're goign through to get GI testing done for my youngest son or what ti took to get my oldest boy cleared for tubes in his ears), etc. It's more than a full-time job to suss out what needs to be done and how to do it (let alone work hard enough to raise the money to do it). Again, that's why I get so frustrated with the pseudo-science. There are things taht can and should be done on a national level (politically, scientifically, etc.) and given how tight the current resources are (for parents, profesionals, and adovocacy/treatment organizations)...we have to move past what at the very least is not harmful (but not helpful) and what is potentially harmful to what the real interventions are.
I have nothing but respect for parents of children with special needs. I have nothing but respect for childrena dn adultsw who have special needs. It's something I never thought I'd spend my life involved in...an area I once thought I was far from qualified or able to be involved in. However, here I am...and I find as the years go by and my frustration level rises, so does my passion. I don't mean to come off as overbearing or dismissive...I, just like you and all the other opaaretns, practitioners, etc want to make the world better for my charges (my children and clients) those people entrusted to my care who for whatever reason nare in need of the support I can provide. That which gets in the way of that frankly ticks me off.
I'll get off my soapbox now campaigning time is over
Peace,
Erik
I'm not suggetsting that propoer nutrition, diet, allergies/food sensitivities is bunk. Far from it. It's an important piece of the puzzle. When you manage a given child's particualr sensitivities it does reduce challenging behaviors and increase the ability to teach desired communication, social and daily living skill behaviors. What frsutrates me is the exteme push sometimes for specialized diets, vitamin treatment and the liek without supporting evidence of their need for a particular individual. There is, for some advocacy movements, an implicit assumption that people on the spectrum automatically ahve certain food sensitivities and the like. My experience tells me oherwise.
I also knwo how har4d it is to get the proper testing, money for needed services (ask me sometime abotu what we're goign through to get GI testing done for my youngest son or what ti took to get my oldest boy cleared for tubes in his ears), etc. It's more than a full-time job to suss out what needs to be done and how to do it (let alone work hard enough to raise the money to do it). Again, that's why I get so frustrated with the pseudo-science. There are things taht can and should be done on a national level (politically, scientifically, etc.) and given how tight the current resources are (for parents, profesionals, and adovocacy/treatment organizations)...we have to move past what at the very least is not harmful (but not helpful) and what is potentially harmful to what the real interventions are.
I have nothing but respect for parents of children with special needs. I have nothing but respect for childrena dn adultsw who have special needs. It's something I never thought I'd spend my life involved in...an area I once thought I was far from qualified or able to be involved in. However, here I am...and I find as the years go by and my frustration level rises, so does my passion. I don't mean to come off as overbearing or dismissive...I, just like you and all the other opaaretns, practitioners, etc want to make the world better for my charges (my children and clients) those people entrusted to my care who for whatever reason nare in need of the support I can provide. That which gets in the way of that frankly ticks me off.
I'll get off my soapbox now
campaigning time is over Peace,
Erik
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Hey Erik, thanks for the response. I hope you know I share in your frustration. But even in reading your post and my post it's not hard to see where we wouldn't grasp at straws at this point, no?
I suppose I can understand where Rich is coming from in that when a mystery exists, looking at all possibilities can be tantamount to correct success.
But doggone it, I sure would like to take the funding for that study and ... put it to better use, you?
Thanks.
I suppose I can understand where Rich is coming from in that when a mystery exists, looking at all possibilities can be tantamount to correct success.
But doggone it, I sure would like to take the funding for that study and ... put it to better use, you?
Thanks.
Exactly! Ah well...I'll keep on fighting the good fight and making my small impact where I can
Peace,
Erik
Ditto that ... and thank you. :asian:
Hey Erik, thanks for the response. I hope you know I share in your frustration. But even in reading your post and my post it's not hard to see where we wouldn't grasp at straws at this point, no?
I suppose I can understand where Rich is coming from in that when a mystery exists, looking at all possibilities can be tantamount to correct success.
But doggone it, I sure would like to take the funding for that study and ... put it to better use, you?
Thanks.
I can understand your frustration and the frustration of others.
I am lucky. Very Lucky. I have BCBS. I can afford the deductible. I know I get tests run that other people do not with HMO's. But even with that being my experience, I would also have to say that I have always had elevated Bilirubins. It is common for them to be elevated when one is sick. Which is the normal case to see a doctor which is when you are sick. So, many ignore it. I kept getting blood rejected for the elevated count, so I started asking questions. After my divorce and a change of doctors, I was able to find a real good one for me. He understood that I asked questions and was an engineer and liked to understand. He even started asking me questions later about Martial Arts, so I was able to help him out.
They ran lots of tests and saw specialists and paid money for the tests, but I had a doctor that saw my concern and worked with me, and found a specialist to run the tests. It is in about 2 to 3 pecent of the angle saxon population. (* Gilberts *) Most have it to a lessor degree and have no real problems with it. People like me have elevated bilirubins and low cholesterol and have problems processing grease or fatty foods. I had learned to not drink lots of alcohol or none at all and to not eat fried foods and or fat on meat. But, in the end my real low cholesterol and elevated bilirubins were jsut symptoms and needed more tests and data. The enlarged liver even for someone of my size and frame, was another one. Some more tests to elimiate a few other options and then finally a diagnosis. Simply compared to Autism, but is was not go to docotr run test "A" and find Solution "B". It was a process of working and testing and looking at the system.
I repeat I am lucky, in my insruance and income and choice in doctor.
I did not mean to upset anyone, nor did I mean to say everything is a piece, but sometimes you have to start with what it is not. It is very frustatrating, and difficult, but it is how I know many people approach solutions. I agree there should be these discussions but, I am not sure of how to improve the system as I am not involved enough to make a comment.
My apologies.
Rich, please don't apologize - you did not upset me at all! It is continued frustration at the situation as I described it. And I concede you are, indeed, correct that all avenues should be explored. It would just be nice if we had a little more of those dollars going to stuff we know works.
Thanks for the info on Gilberts. :asian:
Thanks for the info on Gilberts. :asian:
Keith Kirkendall
Yellow Belt
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Maybe it is not the rain itself, but possibly something contained in the rain?
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